TEDNYC
Nilay Kulkarni: A life-saving invention that prevents human stampedes
尼拉·库卡尼: 一个能防止人群踩踏事件的救生发明
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1,058,806 views
在印度，每三年就有超过3千万的印度教信徒聚集在大壶节上， 为了洗刷去他们的罪孽，这是世界上最大的宗教聚会。随着大量人潮涌向小城镇，踩踏事件也不可避免地发生了，在2003年大壶节期间，有39人遇难。2014年，作为一名自学成才的程序员，15岁的尼拉·库卡尼决定将自己的技能，通过构建技术解决方案来帮助防止踩踏事件。本视频将带你了解更多关于他的发明，以及它如何成功使得在2015年纳西克大壶节上没有发生任何踩踏和伤亡。
Nilay Kulkarni - Software programmer
Nilay Kulkarni is the co-founder and chief technical officer of Ashioto Analytics, a real-time crowd flow analysis platform. Full bio
Nilay Kulkarni is the co-founder and chief technical officer of Ashioto Analytics, a real-time crowd flow analysis platform. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I was only nine
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我9岁那年，
祖父第一次向我讲述了那场
他6年前见证的恐怖意外事件，
他6年前见证的恐怖意外事件，
00:13
when my grandfather first described to me
the horrors he witnessed six years earlier
the horrors he witnessed six years earlier
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当时在我们家乡印度纳西克，
00:18
when human stampedes killed 39 people
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有39人因为踩踏事件而遇难。
00:21
in our hometown of Nashik, India.
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00:24
It was during the 2003 Nashik Kumbh Mela,
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那是在2003年纳西克的大壶节，
世界最大的宗教聚会之一。
00:27
one of the world's largest
religious gatherings.
religious gatherings.
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00:31
Every 12 years,
over 30 million Hindu worshippers
over 30 million Hindu worshippers
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每隔12年就有超过
3千万印度教教徒
3千万印度教教徒
00:34
descend upon our city --
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蜂拥而至我们的城市，
在这原本只能容纳
150万人的城市中
150万人的城市中
00:36
which is built
only for 1.5 million people --
only for 1.5 million people --
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00:39
and stay for 45 days.
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待上45天。
00:41
The main purpose
is to wash away all their sins
is to wash away all their sins
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这个节日的主要目的是
通过在哥达瓦里河洗澡，
通过在哥达瓦里河洗澡，
洗去他们身上所有的罪孽。
00:44
by bathing in the river Godavari.
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00:47
And stampedes may easily happen
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踩踏事件往往很容易发生，
00:50
because a high-density crowd
moves at a slow pace.
moves at a slow pace.
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因为人群密度高，行走缓慢。
00:54
Apart from Nashik, this event happens
in three other places in India,
in three other places in India,
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除了纳西克，踩踏在印度其他
三个地方也有发生，
三个地方也有发生，
00:58
with varying frequency,
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出现的频率各不相同。
01:00
and between 2001 and 2014,
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2001年2014年间，
01:02
over 2,400 lives have been lost
in stampedes at these events.
in stampedes at these events.
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超过2400人因为节日
踩踏事件而失去生命。
踩踏事件而失去生命。
01:09
What saddened me the most
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让我最难过的是，
01:11
is seeing people around me
resigning to the city's fate
resigning to the city's fate
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看到人们无视城市的宿命，
01:15
in witnessing the seemingly
inevitable deaths of dozens
inevitable deaths of dozens
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坐视每次大壶节上看似不可避免的
01:19
at every Kumbh Mela.
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几十人的死亡。
01:21
I sought to change this,
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我想要改变现状。
01:22
and I thought, why can't I try
to find a solution to this?
to find a solution to this?
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我想，为什么我不能
找到方法解决这个问题？
找到方法解决这个问题？
01:25
Because I knew it is wrong.
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因为我知道这是不对的。
01:27
Having learned coding at an early age
and being a maker,
and being a maker,
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我早年学过编程，
作为一个手艺人（这里指程序员），
作为一个手艺人（这里指程序员），
01:31
I considered the wild idea --
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我想到了一个疯狂的点子——
01:32
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
01:34
[Makers always find a way]
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【手艺人总能找到方法解决问题】
01:35
I considered the wild idea
of building a system
of building a system
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我想到了一个大胆的想法：
可以构建一个系统，
可以构建一个系统，
01:38
that would help regulate
the flow of people
the flow of people
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用来帮助调控人流，
01:41
and use it in the next Kumbh Mela in 2015,
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并在2015年的下一个大壶节，
01:44
to have fewer stampedes
and, hopefully, fewer deaths.
and, hopefully, fewer deaths.
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降低踩踏事件，希望
这个系统能带来更少的伤亡。
这个系统能带来更少的伤亡。
01:48
It seemed like a mission impossible,
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这看起来像不可能完成的任务，
01:50
a dream too big,
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完全是异想天开，
01:52
especially for a 15-year-old,
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尤其对于一个15岁的人来讲。
01:54
yet that dream came true in 2015,
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但梦想在2015年成真了，
01:58
when not only did we succeed
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我们不仅成功降低了踩踏事件
发生的次数和密度，
02:01
in reducing the stampedes
and their intensity,
and their intensity,
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02:04
but we marked 2015
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也在2015年实现了
02:07
as the first Nashik Kumbh Mela
to have zero stampedes.
to have zero stampedes.
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大壶节历史上
首次零踩踏事件的突破。
首次零踩踏事件的突破。
02:11
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
02:16
It was the first time in recorded history
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这是有历史记录以来第一次
02:19
that this event
passed without any casualties.
passed without any casualties.
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这个节日上没有任何人员伤亡。
02:22
How did we do it?
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我们是如何做到的？
02:24
It all started when I joined
an innovation workshop
an innovation workshop
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这一切始于我加入的
由MIT媒体实验室在
由MIT媒体实验室在
02:27
by MIT Media Lab in 2014
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2014年设立的名叫
大壶马拉松（Kumbhathon）的
大壶马拉松（Kumbhathon）的
02:30
called the Kumbhathon
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创新研讨会，
02:32
that aimed at solving challenges
faced at the grand scale of Kumbh Mela.
faced at the grand scale of Kumbh Mela.
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目的是解决大壶节面临的
大规模人群挑战。
大规模人群挑战。
02:37
Now, we figured out to solve
the stampede problem,
the stampede problem,
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现在，我们知道要解决踩踏问题，
02:42
we wanted to know only three things:
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只需要知道三件事情：
02:44
the number of people, the location,
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人数，他们的位置，
02:47
and the rate of the flow
of people per minute.
of people per minute.
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和每分钟人流的速度。
02:51
So we started to look for technologies
that would help us get these three things.
that would help us get these three things.
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所以我们开始寻找可以
帮我们得到这三种信息的科技。
帮我们得到这三种信息的科技。
02:56
Can we distribute radio-frequency tokens
to identify people?
to identify people?
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我们可以通过无线标记
来识别人群吗？
来识别人群吗？
03:00
We figured out that it would
be too expensive and impractical
be too expensive and impractical
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我们发现，这个方法可能
太昂贵且不实用，
太昂贵且不实用，
03:03
to distribute 30 million tags.
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需要分发超过3千万标记。
03:06
Can you use CCTV cameras
with image-processing techniques?
with image-processing techniques?
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能不能用带图像识别的
电子摄像头呢？
电子摄像头呢？
03:09
Again, too expensive for that scale,
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同样，对于此等人群规模
实在太昂贵了，
实在太昂贵了，
03:12
along with the disadvantages
of being non-portable
of being non-portable
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而且还有不够便携的缺点，
03:14
and being completely useless
in the case of rain,
in the case of rain,
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遇到雨天这样的天气时
基本毫无用处。
基本毫无用处。
03:17
which is a common thing
to happen in Kumbh Mela.
to happen in Kumbh Mela.
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大壶节遇到下雨可是
非常平常的事情。
非常平常的事情。
03:21
Can we use cell phone tower data?
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我们可以使用蜂窝基站的数据吗？
03:23
It sounds like the perfect solution,
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这听起来像是个完美的解决方法。
03:26
but the funny part is,
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但有趣的是，
03:28
most of the people
do not carry cell phones
do not carry cell phones
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很多人在大壶节这样的节日上，
03:30
in events like Kumbh Mela.
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根本不带手机。
03:32
Also, the data wouldn't have been
granular enough for us.
granular enough for us.
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而且这个数据
对我们而言粒度不够。
对我们而言粒度不够。
03:36
So we wanted something that was real-time,
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所以我们想要真正实时的，
03:39
low-cost, sturdy and waterproof,
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低成本的，坚固的，防水的
03:42
and it was easy to get
the data for processing.
the data for processing.
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而且便于获取数据的方案。
03:45
So we built Ashioto,
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所以我们构建了“ Ashioto”系统。
03:48
meaning "footstep" in Japanese,
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在日语中意思是“脚步声”。
03:50
as it consists of a portable mat
which has pressure sensors
which has pressure sensors
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这种垫子便携而且自带压力传感器，
03:54
which can count the number
of people walking on it,
of people walking on it,
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可以计算出行走的人群数量，
03:56
and sends the data over the internet
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还能把数据通过互联网传递给
03:59
to the advanced data analysis
software we created.
software we created.
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我们构建的数据分析软件。
04:02
The possible errors,
like overcounting or double-stepping,
like overcounting or double-stepping,
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可能存在的诸如过度计算
或重复计算脚步的误差，
或重复计算脚步的误差，
04:05
were overcome using design interventions.
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也通过干预措施被消除了。
04:08
The optimum breadth of the mat
was determined to be 18 inches,
was determined to be 18 inches,
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在测试了许多不同版本，
04:12
after we tested many different versions
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以及计算人们步伐的平均跨度后，
04:14
and observed the average
stride length of a person.
stride length of a person.
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垫子的最佳宽度被设计为18英寸。
04:18
Otherwise, people might step
over the sensor.
over the sensor.
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不然人们可能会跨过传感器。
04:21
We started with a proof of concept
built in three days,
built in three days,
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然后我们开始对花费了三天时间
用纸板和铝箔制做的传感器
用纸板和铝箔制做的传感器
04:23
made out of cardboard and aluminum foil.
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进行概念测试。
04:26
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
04:27
It worked, for real.
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方法奏效了，真的。
04:29
We built another one
with aluminum composite panels
with aluminum composite panels
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我们用铝复合板和压电版
04:32
and piezoelectric plates,
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做了另外一块，
04:34
which are plates that generate a small
pulse of electricity under pressure.
pulse of electricity under pressure.
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可以在压力下产生小电流脉冲。
04:38
We tested this at 30 different
pilots in public,
pilots in public,
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我们在30多个不同的
公众场合测试了这个装置，
公众场合测试了这个装置，
04:42
in crowded restaurants,
in malls, in temples, etc.,
in malls, in temples, etc.,
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在拥挤的餐厅，商场和寺庙等等，
04:45
to see how people reacted.
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来了解人们的表现。
04:48
And people let us run these pilots
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人们同意我们进行这些测试，
04:50
because they were excited to see localites
work on problems for the city.
work on problems for the city.
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因为他们非常乐于看到
有当地人在解决城市问题。
有当地人在解决城市问题。
04:57
I was 15 and my team members
were in their early 20s.
were in their early 20s.
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我当时15岁，团队的
平均年龄也就是20出头。
平均年龄也就是20出头。
05:01
When the sensors were colored,
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但给传感器上色后，
05:06
people would get scared
and would ask us questions like,
and would ask us questions like,
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人们开始觉得害怕，
并问我们诸如此类的问题，
并问我们诸如此类的问题，
05:09
"Will I get electrocuted
if I step on this?"
if I step on this?"
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“走在上面，会不会被电到？”
05:11
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
或者，如果在路上遇到
很明显是电子传感板的东西，
很明显是电子传感板的东西，
05:12
Or, if it was very obvious that it was
an electronic sensor on the ground,
an electronic sensor on the ground,
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05:16
they would just jump over it.
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他们可能会跳过去。
05:18
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
05:19
So we decided to design
a cover for the sensor
a cover for the sensor
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所以我们决定给传感器加个盖板，
05:22
so that people don't have to worry
what it is on the ground.
what it is on the ground.
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这样人们就不用担心
放在地上的是什么了。
放在地上的是什么了。
05:25
So after some experimentation,
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在经过几次实验后，
05:27
we decided to use an industrial sensor,
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我们打算使用工业级的传感器，
05:30
used as a safety trigger
in hazardous areas
in hazardous areas
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这种传感器在危险地区被用作
安全触发器，
05:33
as the sensor,
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05:34
and a black neoprene rubber sheet
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并用一块黑色的氯丁橡胶板
05:36
as the cover.
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作为盖子。
05:38
Now, another added benefit
of using black rubber
of using black rubber
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另一个使用
黑色橡胶板的好处是，
黑色橡胶板的好处是，
05:41
was that dust naturally
accumulates over the surface,
accumulates over the surface,
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灰尘会自然聚集在表面，
05:44
eventually camouflaging it
with the ground.
with the ground.
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最终伪装成土地表面的样子。
05:47
We also had to make sure that the sensor
is no higher than 12 millimeters.
is no higher than 12 millimeters.
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我们还需要确保
传感器的厚度不能超过12毫米，
传感器的厚度不能超过12毫米，
05:53
Otherwise, people might trip over it,
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否则人们会被绊倒，
05:55
which in itself would cause stampedes.
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这本身就会引起踩踏。
05:57
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
06:01
We don't want that.
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我们可不想这样。
06:02
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
06:04
So we were able to design a sensor
which was only 10 millimeters thick.
which was only 10 millimeters thick.
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所以我们设计了
只有10毫米厚的传感器，
只有10毫米厚的传感器，
06:09
Now the data is sent
to the server in real time,
to the server in real time,
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现在数据实时传回服务器了，
06:11
and a heat map is plotted,
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热点图生成了——
06:13
taking into account
all the active devices on the ground.
all the active devices on the ground.
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基于地面这些所有的活跃设备。
06:16
The authorities could be alerted
if the crowd movement slowed down
if the crowd movement slowed down
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政府部门就可以知道人群慢了下来，
06:21
or if the crowd density
moved beyond a desired threshold.
moved beyond a desired threshold.
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或者人群密度超过了期望的阀值。
06:24
We installed five of these mats
in the Nashik Kumbh Mela 2015,
in the Nashik Kumbh Mela 2015,
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我们在2015年纳西克大壶节上
安装了5块传感垫子，
安装了5块传感垫子，
06:30
and counted over half a million people
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在18个小时内统计出了超过
06:32
in 18 hours,
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50万人，
06:34
ensuring that the data was available
in real time at various checkpoints,
in real time at various checkpoints,
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确保了不同采集点数据的
可用性和实时性，
可用性和实时性，
06:38
ensuring a safe flow of people.
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确保了人流的安全。
06:40
Now, this system, eventually,
with other innovations,
with other innovations,
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现在这个系统，
最终和其他创新一起，
最终和其他创新一起，
06:43
is what helped prevent stampedes
altogether at that festival.
altogether at that festival.
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帮助我们避免了节日踩踏发生。
06:47
The code used by Ashioto during Kumbh Mela
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大壶节的Ashioto使用的代码
06:50
will soon be made publicly available,
free to use for anyone.
free to use for anyone.
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马上就会公开发布，
任何人都可以免费获取。
任何人都可以免费获取。
06:53
I would be glad if someone used this code
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我非常乐于见到有人
能够使用这个代码，
能够使用这个代码，
06:55
to make many more gatherings safer.
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去让更多有人群聚集的
场合变得更安全。
场合变得更安全。
06:58
Having succeeded at Kumbh Mela
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在大壶节的成功实践，
07:00
has inspired me to help others
who may also suffer from stampedes.
who may also suffer from stampedes.
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激发了我去帮助其他
遭遇了踩踏事件的地方。
遭遇了踩踏事件的地方。
07:04
The design of the system
makes it adaptable
makes it adaptable
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这个系统的设计决定了
07:07
to pretty much any event
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它可以适用于任何
07:09
that involves an organized
gathering of people.
gathering of people.
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需要管理聚集人群的场合。
07:13
And my new dream is to improve,
adapt and deploy the system
adapt and deploy the system
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我的新梦想是去提升，
调整和部署这个系统，
调整和部署这个系统，
07:17
all over the world to prevent loss of life
and ensure a safe flow of people,
and ensure a safe flow of people,
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在全球各地避免伤亡，
确保人流安全。
确保人流安全。
07:23
because every human soul is precious,
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因为每个人的灵魂都是珍贵的，
07:26
whether at concerts or sporting events,
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不管在演唱会还是体育赛事，
07:28
the Maha Kumbh Mela in Allahabad,
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不管在阿拉哈巴德的的大壶节，
07:30
the Hajj in Mecca,
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还是在麦加的朝圣，
07:31
the Shia procession to Karbala
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抑或是卡尔巴拉，或者梵蒂冈城的
07:33
or at the Vatican City.
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什叶派游行。
07:35
So what do you all think, can we do it?
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所以你们怎么想，我们能做到吗？
07:37
(Audience) Yes!
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观众：能！
07:38
Thank you.
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谢谢。
07:40
(Cheers)
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（欢呼）
07:41
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Nilay Kulkarni - Software programmerNilay Kulkarni is the co-founder and chief technical officer of Ashioto Analytics, a real-time crowd flow analysis platform.
Why you should listen
Nilay Kulkarni started developing software at the age of 14. In collaboration with the MIT Media Lab, he used his skills as a self-taught programmer to build a simple tech solution to prevent human stampedes during the Kumbh Mela, one of the world's largest crowd gatherings, in India. Now 17 years old, he is the co-founder and chief technical officer of Ashioto Analytics.
Nilay Kulkarni | Speaker | TED.com