TEDNYC
Nilay Kulkarni: A life-saving invention that prevents human stampedes
尼萊庫卡尼: 預防在人群中被踩死的救命發明
Filmed:
Readability: 5.1
1,058,806 views
每三年，世界上最大宗教集會之一的印度大壺節，都會有三千萬印度教參拜者聚集，希望將其罪惡洗去。大量的群眾突然湧入小城市和小鎮，無可避免會有人被踩死，在 2003 年，有 39 人在節慶中喪命。在 2014 年，15 歲的尼萊庫卡尼決定要把他身為自學程式設計師的技能發揮出來，建立一個技術解決方案，來協助預防人被踩死。來進一步了解他的發明，以及它如何協助 2015 年納西克大壺節達成完全無死傷的目標。
Nilay Kulkarni - Software programmer
Nilay Kulkarni is the co-founder and chief technical officer of Ashioto Analytics, a real-time crowd flow analysis platform. Full bio
Nilay Kulkarni is the co-founder and chief technical officer of Ashioto Analytics, a real-time crowd flow analysis platform. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I was only nine
0
691
1278
我只有九歲的時候，
00:13
when my grandfather first described to me
the horrors he witnessed six years earlier
the horrors he witnessed six years earlier
1
1993
4923
祖母第一次向我描述了
她在六年前目擊的恐怖情景，
她在六年前目擊的恐怖情景，
00:18
when human stampedes killed 39 people
2
6940
2904
蜂擁的人群造成了 39 人被踩死，
00:21
in our hometown of Nashik, India.
3
9868
2016
地點在我們的家鄉，印度的納西克。
00:24
It was during the 2003 Nashik Kumbh Mela,
4
12461
3289
那是 2003 年納西克大壺節期間，
00:27
one of the world's largest
religious gatherings.
religious gatherings.
5
15774
2972
世界上最大的宗教集會之一。
00:31
Every 12 years,
over 30 million Hindu worshippers
over 30 million Hindu worshippers
6
19213
3730
每 12 年，就有超過
三千萬印度教參拜者
三千萬印度教參拜者
00:34
descend upon our city --
7
22967
1579
突然造訪我們的城市──
00:36
which is built
only for 1.5 million people --
only for 1.5 million people --
8
24570
2840
城市設計的容量為一百五十萬人──
00:39
and stay for 45 days.
9
27434
1643
他們會停留 45 天。
00:41
The main purpose
is to wash away all their sins
is to wash away all their sins
10
29601
3071
主要的目的，是要洗淨他們的罪惡，
00:44
by bathing in the river Godavari.
11
32696
2325
方式是在哥達瓦里河中洗澡。
00:47
And stampedes may easily happen
12
35807
2238
踩死人的事件很容易發生，
00:50
because a high-density crowd
moves at a slow pace.
moves at a slow pace.
13
38069
3277
因為高密度的人群以低速度在移動。
00:54
Apart from Nashik, this event happens
in three other places in India,
in three other places in India,
14
42002
4309
除了納西克，印度還有
其他三個地方也有這項節慶，
其他三個地方也有這項節慶，
00:58
with varying frequency,
15
46335
1719
舉辦頻率不同，
01:00
and between 2001 and 2014,
16
48078
2769
在 2001 年到 2014 年間，
01:02
over 2,400 lives have been lost
in stampedes at these events.
in stampedes at these events.
17
50871
5498
在這些活動中就有
超過 2400 人被踩死。
超過 2400 人被踩死。
01:09
What saddened me the most
18
57362
1857
最讓我感傷的是，
01:11
is seeing people around me
resigning to the city's fate
resigning to the city's fate
19
59243
4515
看到我身邊的人
聽任這個城市的命運，
聽任這個城市的命運，
01:15
in witnessing the seemingly
inevitable deaths of dozens
inevitable deaths of dozens
20
63782
3825
在每次大壺節都要目擊
似乎無法避免的
似乎無法避免的
01:19
at every Kumbh Mela.
21
67631
1277
數十起死亡。
01:21
I sought to change this,
22
69448
1430
我想要改變這狀況，
01:22
and I thought, why can't I try
to find a solution to this?
to find a solution to this?
23
70902
2975
我心想，我為什麼不找個解決方案？
01:25
Because I knew it is wrong.
24
73901
1488
因為我知道這是錯的。
01:27
Having learned coding at an early age
and being a maker,
and being a maker,
25
75701
3452
我早期曾經學過程式，
加上身為製造者，
加上身為製造者，
01:31
I considered the wild idea --
26
79177
1668
我有個很狂妄的點子──
01:32
(Laughter)
27
80869
1188
（笑聲）
01:34
[Makers always find a way]
28
82081
1385
〔製造者總會找到出路〕
01:35
I considered the wild idea
of building a system
of building a system
29
83490
3065
我的狂野點子就是要建立一個系統，
01:38
that would help regulate
the flow of people
the flow of people
30
86579
2462
可以協助控管人的流量，
01:41
and use it in the next Kumbh Mela in 2015,
31
89065
2989
並用在下一次的 2015 年大壺節中，
01:44
to have fewer stampedes
and, hopefully, fewer deaths.
and, hopefully, fewer deaths.
32
92078
3605
減少蜂湧的情況，
希望也能減少死亡人數。
希望也能減少死亡人數。
01:48
It seemed like a mission impossible,
33
96177
2471
這似乎是個不可能的任務，
01:50
a dream too big,
34
98672
1768
這個夢想太大了，
01:52
especially for a 15-year-old,
35
100464
2181
特別是對一個 15 歲男孩而言，
01:54
yet that dream came true in 2015,
36
102669
3539
然而，這個夢想在 2015 年實現了，
01:58
when not only did we succeed
37
106232
3693
我們不僅成功減少了
02:01
in reducing the stampedes
and their intensity,
and their intensity,
38
109949
2952
蜂湧的情況以及人潮的密度，
02:04
but we marked 2015
39
112925
2177
我們還讓 2015 年成為
02:07
as the first Nashik Kumbh Mela
to have zero stampedes.
to have zero stampedes.
40
115126
4007
第一個沒有人被踩死的
納西克大壺節。
納西克大壺節。
02:11
(Applause)
41
119596
5338
（掌聲）
02:16
It was the first time in recorded history
42
124958
2486
那是歷史記錄中第一次，
02:19
that this event
passed without any casualties.
passed without any casualties.
43
127468
2746
這個活動到結束都沒有傷亡。
02:22
How did we do it?
44
130888
1150
我們怎麼做到的？
02:24
It all started when I joined
an innovation workshop
an innovation workshop
45
132623
3031
一切始於我加入一個創新研討會，
02:27
by MIT Media Lab in 2014
46
135678
2676
是麻省理工學院媒體實驗室
在 2014 年辦的，
在 2014 年辦的，
02:30
called the Kumbhathon
47
138378
1969
叫做大壺馬拉松 (Kumbhathon)。
02:32
that aimed at solving challenges
faced at the grand scale of Kumbh Mela.
faced at the grand scale of Kumbh Mela.
48
140371
4404
目標是要解決在大壺節這麼
大規模的節慶所面臨的難題。
大規模的節慶所面臨的難題。
02:37
Now, we figured out to solve
the stampede problem,
the stampede problem,
49
145784
4508
我們想出了要如何
解決踩死人的問題，
解決踩死人的問題，
02:42
we wanted to know only three things:
50
150316
2164
我們只想知道三樣資訊：
02:44
the number of people, the location,
51
152504
2739
人數、地點，
02:47
and the rate of the flow
of people per minute.
of people per minute.
52
155267
3459
以及每分鐘的人流量。
02:51
So we started to look for technologies
that would help us get these three things.
that would help us get these three things.
53
159241
4129
我們就開始尋找有什麼技術
能協助我們取得這三項資訊。
能協助我們取得這三項資訊。
02:56
Can we distribute radio-frequency tokens
to identify people?
to identify people?
54
164091
4254
我們能不能分發無線電頻率的
憑證來識別每個人？
憑證來識別每個人？
03:00
We figured out that it would
be too expensive and impractical
be too expensive and impractical
55
168369
3413
我們覺得這樣成本太高且不實際，
03:03
to distribute 30 million tags.
56
171806
1936
很難去分發三千萬個吊牌。
03:06
Can you use CCTV cameras
with image-processing techniques?
with image-processing techniques?
57
174545
3381
我們能不能用閉路電視攝影機
搭配影像處理技術？
搭配影像處理技術？
03:09
Again, too expensive for that scale,
58
177950
2047
一樣，用在這麼大規模也太貴了，
03:12
along with the disadvantages
of being non-portable
of being non-portable
59
180021
2878
還有個缺點就是無法帶著走，
03:14
and being completely useless
in the case of rain,
in the case of rain,
60
182923
2818
在下雨時就完全沒用了，
03:17
which is a common thing
to happen in Kumbh Mela.
to happen in Kumbh Mela.
61
185765
2382
而在大壺節常常會下雨。
03:21
Can we use cell phone tower data?
62
189120
2325
我們能用手機信號塔的資料嗎？
03:23
It sounds like the perfect solution,
63
191806
2467
聽起來是完美的解決方案，
03:26
but the funny part is,
64
194297
1773
但好笑的部分是，
03:28
most of the people
do not carry cell phones
do not carry cell phones
65
196094
2745
大部分的人不會帶手機
03:30
in events like Kumbh Mela.
66
198863
1484
到大壺節這類活動中。
03:32
Also, the data wouldn't have been
granular enough for us.
granular enough for us.
67
200887
3714
此外，資料對我們來說也不夠精細。
03:36
So we wanted something that was real-time,
68
204625
2453
所以我們想要的必須要即時、
03:39
low-cost, sturdy and waterproof,
69
207102
3317
低成本、耐用、防水，
03:42
and it was easy to get
the data for processing.
the data for processing.
70
210443
2411
且要很容易取得資料來做處理。
03:45
So we built Ashioto,
71
213672
2356
所以我們建造了 Ashioto，
03:48
meaning "footstep" in Japanese,
72
216052
2085
在日文的意思是「腳步」，
03:50
as it consists of a portable mat
which has pressure sensors
which has pressure sensors
73
218161
4185
它是由可攜式的墊子所構成，
墊子有壓力感測器，
墊子有壓力感測器，
03:54
which can count the number
of people walking on it,
of people walking on it,
74
222370
2491
能夠計算走在上面的人數，
03:56
and sends the data over the internet
75
224885
2432
透過網路把這資料傳輸
03:59
to the advanced data analysis
software we created.
software we created.
76
227341
2547
到我們建造的進階資料分析軟體。
04:02
The possible errors,
like overcounting or double-stepping,
like overcounting or double-stepping,
77
230483
3288
我們設計了干預方式，
來克服過高估計
或反覆踩踏這類的可能錯誤。
或反覆踩踏這類的可能錯誤。
04:05
were overcome using design interventions.
78
233795
2650
04:08
The optimum breadth of the mat
was determined to be 18 inches,
was determined to be 18 inches,
79
236803
3526
我們決定最理想的
墊子寬度是 18 英吋，
墊子寬度是 18 英吋，
04:12
after we tested many different versions
80
240353
2239
這是在我們測試了許多不同版本
04:14
and observed the average
stride length of a person.
stride length of a person.
81
242616
2587
並觀察人的平均步距之後決定的。
04:18
Otherwise, people might step
over the sensor.
over the sensor.
82
246111
2905
不然，人們可能會踩超過感測器。
04:21
We started with a proof of concept
built in three days,
built in three days,
83
249040
2572
我們一開始先要證明
這個概念，在三天內
這個概念，在三天內
04:23
made out of cardboard and aluminum foil.
84
251636
2874
用厚紙板和鋁箔紙
打造出測試用的樣品。
打造出測試用的樣品。
04:26
(Laughter)
85
254534
1001
（笑聲）
04:27
It worked, for real.
86
255559
2374
它有用，是真的。
04:29
We built another one
with aluminum composite panels
with aluminum composite panels
87
257957
2690
我們又用鋁複合板以及壓電板
04:32
and piezoelectric plates,
88
260671
1638
再打造了一個樣品，
04:34
which are plates that generate a small
pulse of electricity under pressure.
pulse of electricity under pressure.
89
262333
3571
壓電板在受到壓力時
會產生出小的電脈衝。
會產生出小的電脈衝。
04:38
We tested this at 30 different
pilots in public,
pilots in public,
90
266959
3269
我們在三十個地點測試了
這個設計，包括公開場所、
這個設計，包括公開場所、
04:42
in crowded restaurants,
in malls, in temples, etc.,
in malls, in temples, etc.,
91
270252
3722
擁擠的餐廳、購物中心、廟宇等等，
04:45
to see how people reacted.
92
273998
1634
看看人們的反應如何。
04:48
And people let us run these pilots
93
276720
2023
大家都讓我們做這些測試，
04:50
because they were excited to see localites
work on problems for the city.
work on problems for the city.
94
278767
6476
因為他們很興奮能夠看到
當地有人要為城市解決問題。
當地有人要為城市解決問題。
04:57
I was 15 and my team members
were in their early 20s.
were in their early 20s.
95
285680
3119
我那時十五歲，我的
團隊成員都二十歲出頭。
團隊成員都二十歲出頭。
05:01
When the sensors were colored,
96
289736
4491
當感測器加上了顏色，
05:06
people would get scared
and would ask us questions like,
and would ask us questions like,
97
294251
2841
人們會緊張，問我們像這樣的問題：
05:09
"Will I get electrocuted
if I step on this?"
if I step on this?"
98
297116
2207
「如果我踩上去會被電擊嗎？」
05:11
(Laughter)
99
299347
1001
（笑聲）
05:12
Or, if it was very obvious that it was
an electronic sensor on the ground,
an electronic sensor on the ground,
100
300372
4372
或者，如果很明顯
地上有個電子感測器，
地上有個電子感測器，
05:16
they would just jump over it.
101
304768
1493
他們就會跳過它。
05:18
(Laughter)
102
306285
1076
（笑聲）
05:19
So we decided to design
a cover for the sensor
a cover for the sensor
103
307385
3064
所以我們決定要為感測器做個罩子，
05:22
so that people don't have to worry
what it is on the ground.
what it is on the ground.
104
310473
3057
這樣人們就不用擔心
地上的那個東西是什麼。
地上的那個東西是什麼。
05:25
So after some experimentation,
105
313554
1976
經過一些實驗之後，
05:27
we decided to use an industrial sensor,
106
315554
2810
我們決定使用工業用感測器，
05:30
used as a safety trigger
in hazardous areas
in hazardous areas
107
318388
2969
在危險區域用的安全觸發器
05:33
as the sensor,
108
321381
1151
來當感測器，
05:34
and a black neoprene rubber sheet
109
322556
2081
用黑色合成橡膠片
05:36
as the cover.
110
324661
1242
來當外罩。
05:38
Now, another added benefit
of using black rubber
of using black rubber
111
326374
2817
用黑色橡膠的額外好處是
05:41
was that dust naturally
accumulates over the surface,
accumulates over the surface,
112
329215
3627
塵土會自然在表面上堆積，
05:44
eventually camouflaging it
with the ground.
with the ground.
113
332866
2650
最終會成為它的保護色，
看來就像地板。
看來就像地板。
05:47
We also had to make sure that the sensor
is no higher than 12 millimeters.
is no higher than 12 millimeters.
114
335540
5112
我們也得要確保感測器
不能高過 12 公釐。
不能高過 12 公釐。
05:53
Otherwise, people might trip over it,
115
341206
2229
不然可能會絆倒人，
05:55
which in itself would cause stampedes.
116
343459
1905
結果是它造成人被踩死。
05:57
(Laughter)
117
345792
3787
（笑聲）
06:01
We don't want that.
118
349603
1362
我們不希望這樣。
06:02
(Laughter)
119
350989
1789
（笑聲）
06:04
So we were able to design a sensor
which was only 10 millimeters thick.
which was only 10 millimeters thick.
120
352802
4079
所以，我們設計了一個
感測器，厚度只有 10 公釐。
感測器，厚度只有 10 公釐。
06:09
Now the data is sent
to the server in real time,
to the server in real time,
121
357469
2240
資料會被即時傳送到伺服器，
06:11
and a heat map is plotted,
122
359733
1648
畫出熱區圖，
06:13
taking into account
all the active devices on the ground.
all the active devices on the ground.
123
361405
3343
考量所有在地上的已啟動裝置。
06:16
The authorities could be alerted
if the crowd movement slowed down
if the crowd movement slowed down
124
364772
4285
如果群眾的移動速度慢下來，
或是群眾密度超過希望的標準，
或是群眾密度超過希望的標準，
06:21
or if the crowd density
moved beyond a desired threshold.
moved beyond a desired threshold.
125
369081
3135
當權機關就會收到警訊。
06:24
We installed five of these mats
in the Nashik Kumbh Mela 2015,
in the Nashik Kumbh Mela 2015,
126
372992
4992
我們在 2015 年的納西克
大壺節安裝了五個墊子，
大壺節安裝了五個墊子，
06:30
and counted over half a million people
127
378008
2390
計算到的人數
在十八小時內就有五十萬人，
06:32
in 18 hours,
128
380422
1682
06:34
ensuring that the data was available
in real time at various checkpoints,
in real time at various checkpoints,
129
382128
4377
確保可以從各檢查站即時取得資料，
06:38
ensuring a safe flow of people.
130
386529
1876
確保人流的安全。
06:40
Now, this system, eventually,
with other innovations,
with other innovations,
131
388429
3445
最終，就是這個系統和其他的創新
06:43
is what helped prevent stampedes
altogether at that festival.
altogether at that festival.
132
391898
3152
一起協助避免了在
該節慶中踩死人的意外。
該節慶中踩死人的意外。
06:47
The code used by Ashioto during Kumbh Mela
133
395585
2873
在大壺節中所使用的
Ashioto 程式碼，
Ashioto 程式碼，
06:50
will soon be made publicly available,
free to use for anyone.
free to use for anyone.
134
398482
3412
很快就會被公開，
提供大家免費使用。
提供大家免費使用。
06:53
I would be glad if someone used this code
135
401918
1977
我很希望看到有人能用這程式碼
06:55
to make many more gatherings safer.
136
403919
2212
來讓更多聚會變得更安全。
06:58
Having succeeded at Kumbh Mela
137
406878
1926
在大壺節的成功鼓舞了我，
07:00
has inspired me to help others
who may also suffer from stampedes.
who may also suffer from stampedes.
138
408828
3912
讓我想要協助其他可能
受到蜂湧群眾所苦的人。
受到蜂湧群眾所苦的人。
07:04
The design of the system
makes it adaptable
makes it adaptable
139
412764
2809
這個系統的設計，
幾乎可以適用在任何活動上，
07:07
to pretty much any event
140
415597
1994
07:09
that involves an organized
gathering of people.
gathering of people.
141
417615
3796
有組織的人類聚會相關活動都可以。
07:13
And my new dream is to improve,
adapt and deploy the system
adapt and deploy the system
142
421435
4310
而我的新夢想是要改善、
改造，並部署這個系統，
改造，並部署這個系統，
07:17
all over the world to prevent loss of life
and ensure a safe flow of people,
and ensure a safe flow of people,
143
425769
5469
推行到全世界，來預防
人命損失，確保人流安全，
人命損失，確保人流安全，
07:23
because every human soul is precious,
144
431262
2787
因為每個人的生命都是可貴的，
07:26
whether at concerts or sporting events,
145
434073
2378
不論是在演唱會或運動比賽、
07:28
the Maha Kumbh Mela in Allahabad,
146
436475
1887
安拉阿巴德的大壺節、
07:30
the Hajj in Mecca,
147
438386
1451
麥加的朝聖、
07:31
the Shia procession to Karbala
148
439861
1897
前往卡爾巴拉的什葉遊行，
07:33
or at the Vatican City.
149
441782
1484
或梵蒂岡。
07:35
So what do you all think, can we do it?
150
443893
1877
你們怎麼想？我們能辦得到嗎？
07:37
(Audience) Yes!
151
445794
1151
（觀眾）能！
07:38
Thank you.
152
446969
1151
謝謝。
07:40
(Cheers)
153
448144
1001
（歡呼）
07:41
(Applause)
154
449169
3270
（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Nilay Kulkarni - Software programmerNilay Kulkarni is the co-founder and chief technical officer of Ashioto Analytics, a real-time crowd flow analysis platform.
Why you should listen
Nilay Kulkarni started developing software at the age of 14. In collaboration with the MIT Media Lab, he used his skills as a self-taught programmer to build a simple tech solution to prevent human stampedes during the Kumbh Mela, one of the world's largest crowd gatherings, in India. Now 17 years old, he is the co-founder and chief technical officer of Ashioto Analytics.
Nilay Kulkarni | Speaker | TED.com