TEDGlobal 2011
Rory Stewart: Time to end the war in Afghanistan
罗里·斯图尔特Rory Stewart: 是时候去结束在阿富汗的战争了
Filmed:
Readability: 4.6
776,009 views
英国国会议员罗里·斯图尔特在9/11后走遍了阿富汗，与市民和军阀们谈话。现在，十年以后，他问道：为什么西方和联军仍然在那里作战？他分享了过去成功军事干涉的经验--例如波斯尼亚的波黑战争--并且表示谦卑与本地经验才是成功之道。
Rory Stewart - Politician
Rory Stewart -- a perpetual pedestrian, a diplomat, an adventurer and an author -- is the member of British Parliament for Penrith and the Border. Full bio
Rory Stewart -- a perpetual pedestrian, a diplomat, an adventurer and an author -- is the member of British Parliament for Penrith and the Border. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
The question today is not:
0
0
3000
在今天我们的问题不是：
00:18
Why did we invade Afghanistan?
1
3000
2000
为什么我们要侵略阿富汗？
00:20
The question is:
2
5000
2000
真正的问题是：
00:22
why are we still in Afghanistan
3
7000
3000
十年之后，为什么我们仍然
00:25
one decade later?
4
10000
3000
呆在那儿？
00:28
Why are we spending
5
13000
2000
为什么我们花费
00:30
$135 billion?
6
15000
4000
1350亿美金？
00:34
Why have we got 130,000 troops on the ground?
7
19000
4000
为什么我们仍然有13万地面部队？
00:38
Why were more people killed
8
23000
2000
为什么在
00:40
last month
9
25000
2000
上个月被杀的人
00:42
than in any preceding month
10
27000
2000
比这次冲突之前的
00:44
of this conflict?
11
29000
2000
任何一个月都要多？
00:46
How has this happened?
12
31000
2000
这为什么会发生？
00:48
The last 20 years
13
33000
3000
过去的20年
00:51
has been the age of intervention,
14
36000
3000
已经成为了介入干预的20年
00:54
and Afghanistan is simply one act
15
39000
3000
并且阿富汗只是
00:57
in a five-act tragedy.
16
42000
2000
五个灾难当中的其中一个。
00:59
We came out of the end of the Cold War
17
44000
3000
我们绝望的
01:02
in despair.
18
47000
2000
走出了冷战。
01:04
We faced Rwanda;
19
49000
2000
我们面对卢旺达内战；
01:06
we faced Bosnia,
20
51000
2000
我们面对波黑战争；
01:08
and then we rediscovered our confidence.
21
53000
3000
然后我们重新找到了我们的自信。
01:11
In the third act, we went into Bosnia and Kosovo
22
56000
3000
在第三个行动中，我们进入了波斯尼亚和科索沃
01:14
and we seemed to succeed.
23
59000
3000
并且我们看起来似乎成功干预了。
01:17
In the fourth act, with our hubris,
24
62000
2000
在第四个行动中，我们带着傲慢，
01:19
our overconfidence developing,
25
64000
2000
和我们过度的自负
01:21
we invaded Iraq and Afghanistan,
26
66000
3000
入侵了伊拉克和阿富汗。
01:24
and in the fifth act,
27
69000
2000
在第五个行动中，
01:26
we plunged into a humiliating mess.
28
71000
4000
我们深陷令人蒙羞的困境。
01:30
So the question is: What are we doing?
29
75000
3000
所以真正的问题是：我们到底在干什么？
01:33
Why are we still stuck in Afghanistan?
30
78000
3000
为什么我们仍然被困在阿富汗？
01:36
And the answer, of course,
31
81000
2000
当然，我们
01:38
that we keep being given
32
83000
2000
被给予的答案是
01:40
is as follows:
33
85000
2000
以下几个。
01:42
we're told that we went into Afghanistan
34
87000
2000
我们说我们进入阿富汗
01:44
because of 9/11,
35
89000
2000
是因为9/11事件
01:46
and that we remain there
36
91000
2000
并且我们仍然呆在那里
01:48
because the Taliban poses an existential threat
37
93000
2000
因为塔利班对国际安全
01:50
to global security.
38
95000
2000
构成了生死存亡的威胁。
01:52
In the words of President Obama,
39
97000
3000
引用奥巴马总统的话说，
01:55
"If the Taliban take over again,
40
100000
2000
“如果塔利班夺回主权的话，
01:57
they will invite back Al-Qaeda,
41
102000
2000
他们会把基地组织请回来，
01:59
who will try to kill as many of our people
42
104000
3000
他们会杀掉
02:02
as they possibly can."
43
107000
3000
他们能杀掉的所有人。”
02:05
The story that we're told
44
110000
2000
我们被告知的故事
02:07
is that there was a "light footprint" initially --
45
112000
2000
在一开始就是一个缺少充分的理由--
02:09
in other words, that we ended up in a situation
46
114000
2000
换句话说，我们处在一个
02:11
where we didn't have enough troops,
47
116000
2000
没有足够军队
02:13
we didn't have enough resources,
48
118000
2000
没有足够资源
02:15
that Afghans were frustrated --
49
120000
2000
阿富汗人都很挫败的绝境之下。
02:17
they felt there wasn't enough progress
50
122000
2000
他们觉得情况
02:19
and economic development and security,
51
124000
3000
与经济和社会安全都没有得到足够的发展
02:22
and therefore the Taliban came back --
52
127000
2000
因此塔利班即将回来。
02:24
that we responded in 2005 and 2006
53
129000
3000
所以我们回应在2005与2006年
02:27
with troop deployments,
54
132000
2000
军队的部署问题，
02:29
but we still didn't put enough troops on the ground.
55
134000
4000
但是我们仍然没有部署足够多的地面部队。
02:33
And that it wasn't until 2009,
56
138000
3000
并且一直持续到2009年，
02:36
when President Obama signed off on a surge,
57
141000
3000
当奥巴马签下了扩军合约，
02:39
that we finally had,
58
144000
2000
我们终于拥有了，
02:41
in the words of Secretary Clinton,
59
146000
2000
用国务卿克林顿的话来说，
02:43
"the strategy, the leadership and the resources."
60
148000
3000
“战略，领导力和资源，”
02:46
So, as the president now reassures us,
61
151000
3000
所以，就像美国总统保证我们的一样，
02:49
we are on track to achieve our goals.
62
154000
4000
我们已经在实现目标的正轨上。
02:54
All of this is wrong.
63
159000
3000
上述所有的这些都是错误的。
02:57
Every one of those statements is wrong.
64
162000
3000
每一个声明都是错误的。
03:01
Afghanistan does not
65
166000
2000
阿富汗并没有
03:03
pose an existential threat
66
168000
2000
构成对
03:05
to global security.
67
170000
2000
国际社会生死存亡的威胁。
03:07
It is extremely unlikely
68
172000
2000
塔利班会夺回政权
03:09
the Taliban would ever be able to take over the country --
69
174000
3000
是极度不可能的。
03:12
extremely unlikely they'd be able to seize Kabul.
70
177000
2000
他们可以夺取喀布尔也是极度不可能的。
03:14
They simply don't have a conventional military option.
71
179000
3000
他们根本没有常规的军事解决途径。
03:17
And even if they were able to do so, even if I'm wrong,
72
182000
3000
并且即使他们可以这么做，如果我说错了，
03:20
it's extremely unlikely
73
185000
2000
塔利班会请基地组织回来
03:22
the Taliban would invite back Al-Qaeda.
74
187000
2000
也是几乎不可能的。
03:24
From the Taliban's point of view,
75
189000
2000
从塔利班的角度来看，
03:26
that was their number one mistake last time.
76
191000
3000
这是他们以前犯得第一大错误。
03:29
If they hadn't invited back Al-Qaeda,
77
194000
2000
如果他们没有请回基地组织，
03:31
they would still be in power today.
78
196000
3000
他们今天还会仍然执政。
03:34
And even if I'm wrong about those two things,
79
199000
2000
并且如果对于这两件事我仍然错了，
03:36
even if they were able to take back the country,
80
201000
2000
如果他们甚至夺回了政权，
03:38
even if they were to invite back Al-Qaeda,
81
203000
3000
并且请回了基地组织，
03:41
it's extremely unlikely
82
206000
2000
基地组织会显著提高
03:43
that Al-Qaeda would significantly enhance
83
208000
2000
对美国
03:45
its ability to harm the United States
84
210000
2000
或者欧洲的伤害能力
03:47
or harm Europe.
85
212000
3000
这也是不可能的。
03:50
Because this isn't the 1990s anymore.
86
215000
2000
因为现在已经不是90年代了。
03:52
If the Al-Qaeda base
87
217000
2000
如果阿富汗
03:54
was to be established near Ghazni,
88
219000
2000
在Ghazni附近建立基地的话，
03:56
we would hit them very hard,
89
221000
2000
我们会狠狠地打击他们，
03:58
and it would be very, very difficult
90
223000
2000
并且对于塔利班来说
04:00
for the Taliban to protect them.
91
225000
2000
去保护他们是很困难的。
04:02
Furthermore, it's simply not true
92
227000
3000
此外，
04:05
that what went wrong in Afghanistan
93
230000
2000
在阿富汗的失误
04:07
is the light footprint.
94
232000
2000
是缺少充分的理由，这根本就不是真的。
04:09
In my experience, in fact,
95
234000
2000
根据我的经验，事实上，
04:11
the light footprint was extremely helpful.
96
236000
4000
这缺少充分的理由是非常有帮助的。
04:15
And these troops that we brought in --
97
240000
3000
并且我们带去的这些更多的军队--
04:18
it's a great picture of David Beckham
98
243000
2000
这是一张贝克汉姆
04:20
there on the sub-machine gun --
99
245000
2000
和轻机枪的图片--
04:22
made the situation worse, not better.
100
247000
3000
让这个情况更糟，并不是更好。
04:25
When I walked across Afghanistan
101
250000
2000
当我在2001-2002冬天
04:27
in the winter of 2001-2002,
102
252000
3000
走访阿富汗时，
04:30
what I saw was scenes like this.
103
255000
2000
我看到的画面是这个。
04:32
A girl, if you're lucky,
104
257000
2000
一个女孩，如果你幸运的话，
04:34
in the corner of a dark room --
105
259000
2000
在一个黑暗房间的角落--
04:36
lucky to be able to look at the Koran.
106
261000
3000
幸运的可以看到古兰经。
04:39
But in those early days
107
264000
2000
但是在当我们说
04:41
when we're told we didn't have enough troops and enough resources,
108
266000
2000
我们没有足够的军队与资源时，
04:43
we made a lot of progress in Afghanistan.
109
268000
2000
我们在阿富汗却取得了很多进展。
04:45
Within a few months,
110
270000
2000
在几个月之内，
04:47
there were two and a half million more girls in school.
111
272000
3000
有多于250万的女孩进入了学校。
04:50
In Sangin where I was sick in 2002,
112
275000
3000
2002年当我在Sangin生病时，
04:53
the nearest health clinic
113
278000
2000
最近的诊所
04:55
was within three days walk.
114
280000
2000
是在3天的步行路程内。
04:57
Today, there are 14 health clinics
115
282000
3000
而今天，仅仅在那个区域
05:00
in that area alone.
116
285000
2000
就有14家诊所。
05:02
There was amazing improvements.
117
287000
2000
这是不可思议的发展。
05:04
We went from almost no Afghans
118
289000
2000
在塔利班执政期间，从阿富汗几乎没有人
05:06
having mobile telephones during the Taliban
119
291000
2000
拥有手机
05:08
to a situation where, almost overnight,
120
293000
2000
转眼间到现在，
05:10
three million Afghans had mobile telephones.
121
295000
4000
3百万的阿富汗人拥有手机。
05:14
And we had progress in the free media.
122
299000
2000
并且我们在媒体自由方面取得了进步。
05:16
We had progress in elections --
123
301000
2000
我们在选举上取得了进步--
05:18
all of this with the so-called light footprint.
124
303000
3000
所有的这些都是与所谓的“缺少充分的理由”联系在一起的。
05:21
But when we began to bring more money,
125
306000
3000
但是当我们开始带来更多的钱，
05:24
when we began to invest more resources,
126
309000
3000
当我们开始投资更多的资源，
05:27
things got worse, not better. How?
127
312000
3000
事情反而变得更糟，而不是更好。这是怎么了？
05:30
Well first see, if you put 125 billion dollars a year
128
315000
3000
好，我们来看， 如果我们把每年1250亿美金
05:33
into a country like Afghanistan
129
318000
2000
投入一个像阿富汗这样的国家
05:35
where the entire revenue of the Afghan state
130
320000
3000
一个总收入
05:38
is one billion dollars a year,
131
323000
2000
每年只有10亿美金的国家，
05:40
you drown everything.
132
325000
3000
你就毁坏了所有的事情。
05:43
It's not simply corruption and waste
133
328000
2000
这不仅仅是你创造了
05:45
that you create;
134
330000
2000
腐败与浪费；
05:47
you essentially replace the priorities of the Afghan government,
135
332000
3000
你本质上取代了阿富汗政府的优先权，
05:50
the elected Afghan government,
136
335000
2000
当选的阿富汗政府
05:52
with the micromanaging tendencies
137
337000
2000
以及外国短途旅行团的
05:54
of foreigners on short tours
138
339000
3000
微观管理倾向
05:57
with their own priorities.
139
342000
2000
以及他们的优先权。
05:59
And the same is true for the troops.
140
344000
2000
并且这同样适用于军队。
06:01
When I walked across Afghanistan,
141
346000
2000
当我走访阿富汗时，
06:03
I stayed with people like this.
142
348000
2000
我与这些人呆在一起。
06:05
This is Commandant Haji Malem Mohsin Khan of Kamenj.
143
350000
3000
这是卡门吉的Haji Malem Mohsin Khan司令官。
06:08
Commandant Haji Malem Mohsin Khan of Kamenj was a great host.
144
353000
3000
他是一个很好的主人。
06:11
He was very generous,
145
356000
2000
他非常的慷慨大方
06:13
like many of the Afghans I stayed with.
146
358000
2000
就如同很多与我一起呆过的阿富汗人一样。
06:15
But he was also considerably more conservative,
147
360000
3000
但是他也是相当的保守，
06:18
considerably more anti-foreign,
148
363000
2000
相当的不喜欢外国人
06:20
considerably more Islamist
149
365000
2000
相当的伊斯兰化
06:22
than we'd like to acknowledge.
150
367000
3000
比我们所了解到的还要多。
06:25
This man, for example, Mullah Mustafa,
151
370000
2000
举例来说，这个男人，Mullah Mustafa
06:27
tried to shoot me.
152
372000
2000
曾尝试杀了我。
06:29
And the reason I'm looking a little bit perplexed in this photograph
153
374000
3000
并且在这张照片中我看起来比较困惑的原因是
06:32
is I was somewhat frightened,
154
377000
2000
我有一点害怕
06:34
and I was too afraid on this occasion
155
379000
2000
而且我非常的恐惧在这样的场合下
06:36
to ask him, having run for an hour through the desert
156
381000
2000
去问他，在沙漠中行进了一小时
06:38
and taken refuge in this house,
157
383000
2000
然后庇护在这个房子里，
06:40
why he had turned up and wanted to have his photograph taken with me.
158
385000
4000
为什么他转变了并且想与我照一张相。
06:44
But 18 months later, I asked him
159
389000
2000
但在18个月后，我问他
06:46
why he had tried to shoot me.
160
391000
2000
为什么他尝试着要杀我。
06:48
And Mullah Mustafa -- he's the man with the pen and paper --
161
393000
2000
然后Mullah Mustafa--他是那个拿着纸和笔的男人--
06:50
explained that the man sitting immediately to the left as you look at the photograph,
162
395000
3000
解释到如这幅图中大家看到的坐在他左边的那个男人，
06:53
Nadir Shah
163
398000
2000
Nadir Shah
06:55
had bet him that he couldn't hit me.
164
400000
3000
跟他打赌他不能打我。
06:58
Now this is not to say
165
403000
2000
我这儿并不是想说
07:00
Afghanistan is a place full of people like Mullah Mustafa.
166
405000
3000
阿富汗是一个到处都有像Mullah Mustafa这种人的地方。
07:03
It's not; it's a wonderful place
167
408000
3000
它不是；它是一个充满
07:06
full of incredible energy and intelligence.
168
411000
3000
不可思议的能量与智慧的地方。
07:09
But it is a place
169
414000
2000
但是这个
07:11
where the putting-in of the troops
170
416000
2000
投入军队的地方
07:13
has increased the violence rather than decreased it.
171
418000
3000
反而增加了暴力，而不是减少。
07:16
2005, Anthony Fitzherbert,
172
421000
2000
2005年，Anthony Fitzherbert
07:18
an agricultural engineer,
173
423000
2000
一个农业工程师，
07:20
could travel through Helmand,
174
425000
2000
可以经过赫尔曼德省,
07:22
could stay in Nad Ali, Sangin and Ghoresh,
175
427000
2000
可以呆在Nad Ali, Sangin和Ghoresh，
07:24
which are now the names of villages where fighting is taking place.
176
429000
3000
这些都是战斗发生时村庄的名字。
07:27
Today, he could never do that.
177
432000
3000
今天，他再也不能这样做了。
07:30
So the idea that we deployed the troops
178
435000
2000
所以展开军事行动
07:32
to respond to the Taliban insurgency
179
437000
2000
去回应塔利班叛乱的想法
07:34
is mistaken.
180
439000
2000
是错误的。
07:36
Rather than preceding the insurgency,
181
441000
2000
而不是开始叛乱，
07:38
the Taliban followed the troop deployment,
182
443000
3000
塔利班反而开始军队部署。
07:41
and as far as I'm concerned,
183
446000
2000
并且就我而言，
07:43
the troop deployment caused their return.
184
448000
3000
军队部署反而造成了他们的返回。
07:46
Now is this a new idea?
185
451000
2000
所以这是不是一个新的主意？
07:48
No, there have been any number of people
186
453000
2000
不，在过去的7年当中
07:50
saying this over the last seven years.
187
455000
3000
有无数人说过这样的话。
07:53
I ran a center at Harvard
188
458000
2000
在2008到2010年
07:55
from 2008 to 2010,
189
460000
2000
我在哈佛大学运营一个中心
07:57
and there were people like Michael Semple there
190
462000
2000
并且它有像Michael Semple
07:59
who speak Afghan languages fluently,
191
464000
2000
可以流利的说阿富汗语，
08:01
who've traveled to almost every district in the country.
192
466000
3000
几乎去过这国家里每一个角落的人。
08:04
Andrew Wilder, for example,
193
469000
3000
再举例，Andrew Wilder,
08:07
born on the Pakistan-Iranian border,
194
472000
3000
在巴基斯坦和伊朗的边界上出生，
08:10
served his whole life
195
475000
2000
有生之年
08:12
in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
196
477000
2000
都呆在了巴基斯坦和阿富汗。
08:14
Paul Fishstein who began working there in 1978 --
197
479000
2000
Paul Fishstein，他1978年开始
08:16
worked for Save the Children,
198
481000
2000
为救助儿童在那儿工作，
08:18
ran the Afghan research and evaluation unit.
199
483000
3000
他负责阿富汗研究和评估单位。
08:22
These are people
200
487000
2000
这些人，
08:24
who were able to say consistently
201
489000
2000
他们都会始终如一地说
08:26
that the increase in development aid
202
491000
2000
那些增加的援助
08:28
was making Afghanistan less secure, not more secure --
203
493000
3000
只让阿富汗变得安全性较差，更加不安全--
08:31
that the counter-insurgency strategy
204
496000
2000
那个反叛乱策略
08:33
was not working and would not work.
205
498000
3000
并没有奏效并且不会奏效。
08:36
And yet, nobody listened to them.
206
501000
3000
但是，没有人听他们的。
08:39
Instead,
207
504000
2000
取而代之的是，
08:41
there was a litany of astonishing optimism.
208
506000
2000
却有无数惊人的乐观面。
08:43
Beginning in 2004,
209
508000
3000
从2004年开始，
08:46
every general came in saying,
210
511000
3000
每一个将军都说，
08:49
"I've inherited a dismal situation,
211
514000
2000
“我继承了一个惨淡的现状，
08:51
but finally I have the right resources and the correct strategy,
212
516000
3000
但是最终我会有正确的资源与策略
08:54
which will deliver,"
213
519000
2000
交付给大家。”
08:56
in General Barno's word in 2004,
214
521000
2000
2004年，巴诺将军说道
08:58
the "decisive year."
215
523000
2000
这是“决定性的一年”。
09:00
Well guess what? It didn't.
216
525000
2000
猜猜看？它并不是决定性的。
09:02
But it wasn't sufficient to prevent General Abuzaid saying
217
527000
3000
但是这并不能足以防止Abuzaid将军在2005年说
09:05
that he had the strategy and the resources
218
530000
2000
他拥有策略和资源
09:07
to deliver, in 2005,
219
532000
2000
给大家一个交付。
09:09
the "decisive year."
220
534000
2000
这是“决定性的一年”。
09:11
Or General David Richards to come in 2006
221
536000
3000
或看看在2006年大卫·理查兹将军
09:14
and say he had the strategy and the resources
222
539000
2000
说道他有策略和资源
09:16
to deliver the "crunch year."
223
541000
2000
去交付给大家“粉碎（塔利班）之年”。
09:18
Or in 2007,
224
543000
2000
再看在2007年，
09:20
the Norwegian deputy foreign minister, Espen Eide,
225
545000
3000
挪威外交部副部长，Espen Eide
09:23
to say that that would deliver the "decisive year."
226
548000
3000
说道这会是“决定性的一年”。
09:26
Or in 2008, Major General Champoux
227
551000
2000
2008年，少将Champoux
09:28
to come in and say he would deliver the "decisive year."
228
553000
3000
说道他会给大家一个“决定性的一年”。
09:31
Or in 2009, my great friend,
229
556000
2000
2009年，我的好朋友，
09:33
General Stanley McChrystal,
230
558000
2000
斯坦利·麦克里斯特尔将军，
09:35
who said that he was "knee-deep in the decisive year."
231
560000
3000
他说道他“身陷在这决定性的一年”。
09:38
Or in 2010,
232
563000
2000
2010年，
09:40
the U.K. foreign secretary, David Miliband,
233
565000
3000
英国的外交部长大卫·米利班德
09:43
who said that at last we would deliver the "decisive year."
234
568000
3000
他说道2010年会是“决定性的一年”。
09:46
And you'll be delighted to hear in 2011, today,
235
571000
3000
并且你将会高兴地听到在2011年，现在，
09:49
that Guido Westerwelle, the German foreign minister,
236
574000
3000
德国外交部长基多·威斯特威勒
09:52
assures us that we are in the "decisive year."
237
577000
3000
向我们保证这是“决定性的一年”。
09:57
(Applause)
238
582000
6000
（掌声）
10:03
How do we allow
239
588000
2000
我们是
10:05
any of this to happen?
240
590000
2000
怎么允许这些事情发生的？
10:07
Well the answer, of course, is,
241
592000
2000
当然，答案是
10:09
if you spend 125 billion or 130 billion
242
594000
2000
如果你花费每年1250亿或1300亿
10:11
dollars a year in a country,
243
596000
3000
美金在一个国家上，
10:14
you co-opt almost everybody.
244
599000
2000
你会串通几乎每个人，
10:16
Even the aid agencies,
245
601000
2000
甚至救援部门--
10:18
who begin to receive an enormous amount of money
246
603000
2000
它们开始收到从美国和欧洲政府
10:20
from the U.S. and the European governments
247
605000
2000
过来的大量的资金
10:22
to build schools and clinics,
248
607000
2000
去建设学校和诊所--
10:24
are somewhat disinclined
249
609000
2000
它们有点不愿意服从
10:26
to challenge the idea
250
611000
2000
去挑战这种
10:28
that Afghanistan is an existential threat
251
613000
2000
阿富汗是国际安全
10:30
to global security.
252
615000
2000
生死存亡的威胁的看法。
10:32
They're worried, in other words,
253
617000
2000
换句话说，它们很担心，
10:34
that if anybody believes that it wasn't such a threat --
254
619000
2000
如果每个人都相信阿富汗不是一个威胁--
10:36
Oxfam, Save the Children
255
621000
2000
牛津饥荒救济委员会，一个救助孩子的机构-
10:38
wouldn't get the money
256
623000
2000
将不会拿到资金
10:40
to build their hospitals and schools.
257
625000
2000
去建造他们的医院和学校。
10:42
It's also very difficult to confront a general
258
627000
2000
而且去面对一个胸前挂有勋章的将军时，
10:44
with medals on his chest.
259
629000
2000
这是非常困难的。
10:46
It's very difficult for a politician,
260
631000
3000
对于政客来说这是很困难的，
10:49
because you're afraid that many lives have been lost in vain.
261
634000
3000
因为你害怕许多人丧失了生命是徒劳的。
10:52
You feel deep, deep guilt.
262
637000
2000
你有种深深，深深的罪恶感。
10:54
You exaggerate your fears,
263
639000
3000
你夸大你的恐惧
10:57
and you're terrified about the humiliation
264
642000
3000
并且你惧怕失败
11:00
of defeat.
265
645000
2000
给你带来的羞耻。
11:02
What is the solution to this?
266
647000
2000
那么什么是解决这些的方案呢？
11:04
Well the solution to this
267
649000
2000
解决的方法是
11:06
is we need to find a way
268
651000
2000
我们需要找到一种方法
11:08
that people like Michael Semple, or those other people,
269
653000
3000
让像Michael Semple这样的人，和更多的
11:11
who are telling the truth, who know the country,
270
656000
3000
说实话，了解这个国家，
11:14
who've spent 30 years on the ground --
271
659000
2000
在这儿土地上呆了30多年的人
11:16
and most importantly of all,
272
661000
2000
而且最重要的是
11:18
the missing component of this --
273
663000
2000
这是被遗漏的一部分--
11:20
Afghans themselves,
274
665000
2000
让阿富汗他们自己人，
11:22
who understand what is going on.
275
667000
3000
他们最知道什么才是出路。
11:25
We need to somehow get their message
276
670000
3000
我们需要以某种方法得到他们的想法
11:28
to the policymakers.
277
673000
2000
并告诉政策的制定者。
11:30
And this is very difficult to do
278
675000
2000
这是非常困难去做到的
11:32
because of our structures.
279
677000
2000
因为我们的政府结构。
11:34
The first thing we need to change
280
679000
2000
我们需要改变的第一件事
11:36
is the structures of our government.
281
681000
2000
就是我们政府的结构。
11:38
Very, very sadly,
282
683000
2000
非常非常可悲的是，
11:40
our foreign services, the United Nations,
283
685000
2000
我们的外交服务，联合国，
11:42
the military in these countries
284
687000
2000
在国外的军队
11:44
have very little idea of what's going on.
285
689000
2000
他们都不知道发生了什么。
11:46
The average British soldier is on a tour of only six months;
286
691000
3000
一个普通的英国士兵的服役只有六个月；
11:49
Italian soldiers, on tours of four months;
287
694000
3000
意大利士兵服役4个月；
11:52
the American military, on tours of 12 months.
288
697000
3000
美国士兵服役12个月。
11:55
Diplomats are locked in embassy compounds.
289
700000
3000
外交官被困在与大使馆的和解当中。
11:58
When they go out, they travel in these curious armored vehicles
290
703000
3000
当他们出来时，他们坐在这些奇怪的装甲车当中
12:01
with these somewhat threatening security teams
291
706000
3000
与在24小时前就准备好
12:04
who ready 24 hours in advance
292
709000
2000
告知你只能在周边待上一小时
12:06
who say you can only stay on the ground for an hour.
293
711000
2000
的这些有点让人感到恐吓的安全部队随行在一起。
12:08
In the British embassy in Afghanistan
294
713000
2000
英国驻阿富汗大使馆
12:10
in 2008,
295
715000
2000
在2008年，
12:12
an embassy of 350 people,
296
717000
2000
350人的大使馆
12:14
there were only three people who could speak Dari,
297
719000
3000
只有3个人可以像样的说达利语，
12:17
the main language of Afghanistan, at a decent level.
298
722000
3000
而达利语是阿富汗的主要语言。
12:20
And there was not a single Pashto speaker.
299
725000
3000
而且没有一个说普什图语的人。
12:23
In the Afghan section in London
300
728000
3000
在伦敦的对阿富汗机构
12:26
responsible for governing Afghan policy on the ground,
301
731000
3000
它们是负责控制在阿富汗地面政策的，
12:29
I was told last year
302
734000
2000
去年有人告诉我
12:31
that there was not a single staff member
303
736000
2000
那个对外机构
12:33
of the foreign office in that section
304
738000
3000
没有一个人
12:36
who had ever served
305
741000
2000
曾经在
12:38
on a posting in Afghanistan.
306
743000
2000
阿富汗服役过。
12:40
So we need to change that institutional culture.
307
745000
2000
所以我们需要改变这种制度文化。
12:42
And I could make the same points about the United States
308
747000
3000
同时我可以对美国
12:45
and the United Nations.
309
750000
2000
和联合国提出相同的观点。
12:47
Secondly, we need to aim off of the optimism of the generals.
310
752000
3000
其次，我们需要将目标瞄准在那些将军身上的乐观面。
12:50
We need to make sure that we're a little bit suspicious,
311
755000
3000
我们需要确定我们要有多疑的态度，
12:53
that we understand that optimism
312
758000
2000
我们理解乐观
12:55
is in the DNA of the military,
313
760000
2000
是随军队的DNA而来的，
12:57
that we don't respond to it
314
762000
2000
但我们不
12:59
with quite as much alacrity.
315
764000
2000
那样乐观地回应他们。
13:01
And thirdly, we need to have some humility.
316
766000
3000
第三，我们需要有谦卑之心。
13:04
We need to begin from the position
317
769000
2000
我们需要从
13:06
that our knowledge, our power,
318
771000
2000
我们的知识，权利，
13:08
our legitimacy
319
773000
2000
我们的合法性
13:10
is limited.
320
775000
2000
是有限制的位置开始思考。
13:12
This doesn't mean
321
777000
2000
这并不表示
13:14
that intervention around the world is a disaster.
322
779000
2000
世界各地的干预是一场灾难。
13:16
It isn't.
323
781000
2000
它并不是。
13:18
Bosnia and Kosovo
324
783000
2000
波斯尼亚和科索沃
13:20
were signal successes,
325
785000
2000
它们是显著的成功，
13:22
great successes.
326
787000
3000
极大的成功。
13:25
Today when you go to Bosnia
327
790000
2000
今天，当你去波斯尼亚
13:27
it is almost impossible to believe
328
792000
2000
你将几乎不可能相信
13:29
that what we saw in the early 1990s happened.
329
794000
4000
你在1990年代所看到的一切。
13:33
It's almost impossible to believe the progress we've made
330
798000
3000
你几乎不可能相信我们从
13:36
since 1994.
331
801000
3000
1994年所取得了的进展。
13:39
Refugee return,
332
804000
2000
难民返回，
13:41
which the United Nations High Commission for Refugees
333
806000
2000
联合国难民高级委员会
13:43
thought would be extremely unlikely,
334
808000
2000
认为这是不可能
13:45
has largely happened.
335
810000
2000
但这已经在很大程度上发生了。
13:47
A million properties have been returned.
336
812000
2000
一百万财产被退还。
13:49
Borders between the Bosniak territory
337
814000
2000
在波斯尼亚人领地和
13:51
and the Bosnian-Serb territory have calmed down.
338
816000
3000
波斯尼亚-塞尔维亚人领地的边界平静了下来。
13:54
The national army has shrunk.
339
819000
3000
国家军队已经缩小。
13:57
The crime rates in Bosnia today
340
822000
2000
现波斯尼亚的犯罪率
13:59
are lower than they are in Sweden.
341
824000
3000
已经比瑞典的还要低。
14:03
This has been done
342
828000
2000
这些成就都是
14:05
by an incredible, principled effort
343
830000
3000
通过令人难以置信的、原则性的努力
14:08
by the international community,
344
833000
2000
通过国际社会的帮助，
14:10
and, of course, above all,
345
835000
2000
当然，最重要的是
14:12
by Bosnians themselves.
346
837000
2000
通过波斯尼亚人自己创造的。
14:14
But you need to look at context.
347
839000
2000
但是你需要看看周围的环境。
14:16
And this is what we've lost in Afghanistan and Iraq.
348
841000
3000
这些都是我们在阿富汗和伊拉克已经失去的。
14:19
You need to understand that in those places
349
844000
2000
我们需要去理解在这些地方
14:21
what really mattered
350
846000
2000
什么是真正重要的
14:23
was, firstly, the role of Tudman and Milosevic
351
848000
2000
首先Tudman和米洛舍维奇
14:25
in coming to the agreement,
352
850000
2000
达成了协议，
14:27
and then the fact those men went,
353
852000
3000
然后事实上，那些军队撤了，
14:30
that the regional situation improved,
354
855000
2000
地区形势改善，
14:32
that the European Union could offer Bosnia
355
857000
3000
欧盟可以给波斯尼亚提供
14:35
something extraordinary:
356
860000
2000
一些不同寻常的东西：
14:37
the chance to be part
357
862000
2000
一个机会去成为
14:39
of a new thing, a new club,
358
864000
2000
一个新事物，新团体的一部分，
14:41
a chance to join something bigger.
359
866000
3000
一个机会去加入一些更大的事情。
14:44
And finally, we need to understand that in Bosnia and Kosovo,
360
869000
3000
最终，我们需要明白在波斯尼亚和科索沃，
14:47
a lot of the secret of what we did,
361
872000
2000
我们所做的秘密
14:49
a lot of the secret of our success,
362
874000
2000
我们成功的秘密，
14:51
was our humility --
363
876000
2000
是我们的谦卑之心--
14:53
was the tentative nature of our engagement.
364
878000
3000
是我们与生俱来的承诺。
14:56
We criticized people a lot in Bosnia
365
881000
2000
我们因为相当缓慢地处理战犯的事
14:58
for being quite slow to take on war criminals.
366
883000
2000
而批评在波斯尼亚的人们。
15:00
We criticized them
367
885000
2000
我们因为太缓慢地返回难民的事
15:02
for being quite slow to return refugees.
368
887000
2000
也批评他们。
15:04
But that slowness, that caution,
369
889000
2000
但是这种缓慢，这种谨慎，
15:06
the fact that President Clinton initially said
370
891000
3000
事实上如同克林顿总统一开始说过
15:09
that American troops would only be deployed for a year,
371
894000
2000
美国军队只会在那里部署一年，
15:11
turned out to be a strength,
372
896000
2000
这都转化为一种力量，
15:13
and it helped us to put our priorities right.
373
898000
3000
它帮助我们纠正我们的优先权利。
15:16
One of the saddest things
374
901000
2000
关于我们参与阿富汗事件
15:18
about our involvement in Afghanistan
375
903000
2000
最让人难过的事情之一
15:20
is that we've got our priorities out of sync.
376
905000
2000
就是我们把我们的优先权脱离了正规。
15:22
We're not matching our resources to our priorities.
377
907000
3000
我们不匹配我们的资源和我们的优先权。
15:25
Because if what we're interested in is terrorism,
378
910000
3000
因为如果我们感兴趣的是恐怖主义，
15:28
Pakistan is far more important than Afghanistan.
379
913000
3000
巴基斯坦比阿富汗要重要的多。
15:31
If what we're interested in is regional stability,
380
916000
2000
如果我们感兴趣的是地区稳定，
15:33
Egypt is far more important.
381
918000
2000
埃及要重要的多。
15:35
If what we're worried about is poverty and development,
382
920000
3000
如果我们都很担心是贫困和发展，
15:38
sub-Saharan Africa is far more important.
383
923000
3000
撒哈拉以南的非洲要重要的多。
15:41
This doesn't mean that Afghanistan doesn't matter,
384
926000
3000
这并不是说阿富汗不重要，
15:44
but that it's one of 40 countries in the world
385
929000
2000
但它只是世界上40个
15:46
with which we need to engage.
386
931000
2000
需要我们帮助的国家之一、
15:48
So if I can finish with a metaphor for intervention,
387
933000
4000
所以如果我们可以以一个关于干预的隐喻作为结尾，
15:52
what we need to think of
388
937000
3000
我们需要思考地是
15:55
is something like mountain rescue.
389
940000
3000
有点像山峰紧急救援。
15:58
Why mountain rescue?
390
943000
2000
为什么是山峰紧急救援呢？
16:00
Because when people talk about intervention,
391
945000
3000
因为当人们谈干预时，
16:03
they imagine that some scientific theory --
392
948000
2000
他们认为一些科学的理论依据--
16:05
the Rand Corporation goes around
393
950000
2000
围绕着兰德集团
16:07
counting 43 previous insurgencies
394
952000
3000
计算43个已有的叛乱
16:10
producing mathematical formula
395
955000
2000
造出数学公式
16:12
saying you need one trained counter-insurgent
396
957000
2000
说你需要对每20个人口的成员
16:14
for every 20 members of the population.
397
959000
3000
配有一个训练有素的反叛乱的战士。
16:17
This is the wrong way of looking at it.
398
962000
2000
这是一个错误的方法去看干预。
16:19
You need to look at it in the way that you look at mountain rescue.
399
964000
3000
你需要用你看山地紧急救援的眼光去看它。
16:22
When you're doing mountain rescue,
400
967000
2000
当你在山地紧急救援时，
16:24
you don't take a doctorate in mountain rescue,
401
969000
3000
你不会带一个博士生同行，
16:27
you look for somebody who knows the terrain.
402
972000
3000
而是寻找一个知道地形的人。
16:30
It's about context.
403
975000
2000
这是关于环境的。
16:32
You understand that you can prepare,
404
977000
2000
你知道你是可以做提前准备的，
16:34
but the amount of preparation you can do
405
979000
2000
但你所能做的准备
16:36
is limited --
406
981000
2000
却是有限的。
16:38
you can take some water, you can have a map,
407
983000
2000
你可以带上水，一个地图，
16:40
you can have a pack.
408
985000
2000
你可以有一个背包。
16:42
But what really matters
409
987000
2000
但是真正重要的是
16:44
is two kinds of problems --
410
989000
2000
两种问题--
16:46
problems that occur on the mountain
411
991000
2000
一种在上山时
16:48
which you couldn't anticipate,
412
993000
2000
你不能预料到的问题，
16:50
such as, for example, ice on a slope,
413
995000
3000
例如，坡上的冰，
16:53
but which you can get around,
414
998000
2000
但你可以绕过去，
16:55
and problems which you couldn't anticipate
415
1000000
3000
还有一种问题是你没能预料到
16:58
and which you can't get around,
416
1003000
2000
并且你不可以绕过去的问题，
17:00
like a sudden blizzard or an avalanche
417
1005000
2000
就像突然暴雪或雪崩
17:02
or a change in the weather.
418
1007000
2000
或天气突变。
17:04
And the key to this
419
1009000
2000
这种问题的解决方法是
17:06
is a guide who has been on that mountain,
420
1011000
3000
一个在任何温度
17:09
in every temperature,
421
1014000
2000
任何时间
17:11
at every period --
422
1016000
2000
都来过这个山的向导--
17:13
a guide who, above all,
423
1018000
2000
一个首先
17:15
knows when to turn back,
424
1020000
2000
知道当条件不利时
17:17
who doesn't press on relentlessly
425
1022000
2000
何时该回头，
17:19
when conditions turn against them.
426
1024000
2000
不屈不饶的向导。
17:21
What we look for
427
1026000
2000
我们在
17:23
in firemen, in climbers, in policemen,
428
1028000
3000
救火员，登山者，警察当中寻找，
17:26
and what we should look for in intervention,
429
1031000
2000
关于介入干预，我们需要寻找的
17:28
is intelligent risk takers --
430
1033000
2000
是聪明的甘于冒险的人--
17:30
not people who plunge blind off a cliff,
431
1035000
3000
不是盲目地深陷于悬崖的人，
17:33
not people who jump into a burning room,
432
1038000
3000
不是一头跳进熊熊大火房间里的人，
17:36
but who weigh their risks,
433
1041000
2000
而是权衡风险，
17:38
weigh their responsibilities.
434
1043000
2000
权衡责任的人。
17:40
Because the worst thing we have done in Afghanistan
435
1045000
3000
因为我们在阿富汗做过的最糟的事情
17:43
is this idea
436
1048000
2000
就是这个想法：
17:45
that failure is not an option.
437
1050000
3000
失败不是一个选项。
17:48
It makes failure invisible,
438
1053000
3000
这让失败成为了隐形的，
17:51
inconceivable and inevitable.
439
1056000
3000
不可思议的且不可避免的。
17:54
And if we can resist
440
1059000
2000
并且如果我们可以
17:56
this crazy slogan,
441
1061000
2000
抵抗这些疯狂的标语，
17:58
we shall discover --
442
1063000
2000
我们就会发现--
18:00
in Egypt, in Syria, in Libya,
443
1065000
2000
在埃及，在叙利亚，在利比亚，
18:02
and anywhere else we go in the world --
444
1067000
3000
和世界上任何一个地方--
18:05
that if we can often do much less than we pretend,
445
1070000
3000
如果我们可以经常做的比我们假装的要少，
18:08
we can do much more than we fear.
446
1073000
4000
我们就可以做的比我们所恐惧的要多。
18:12
Thank you very much.
447
1077000
2000
谢谢。
18:14
(Applause)
448
1079000
2000
（掌声）
18:16
Thank you. Thank you very much.
449
1081000
3000
谢谢。非常感谢。
18:19
Thank you. Thank you very much.
450
1084000
3000
谢谢。非常感谢。
18:22
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
451
1087000
4000
谢谢。谢谢 谢谢
18:26
(Applause)
452
1091000
8000
（掌声）
18:34
Thank you.
453
1099000
2000
谢谢
18:36
Thank you. Thank you.
454
1101000
2000
谢谢。谢谢
18:38
Thank you.
455
1103000
2000
谢谢
18:40
(Applause)
456
1105000
2000
（掌声）
18:42
Bruno Giussani: Rory, you mentioned Libya at the end.
457
1107000
3000
布鲁诺·朱萨尼：罗里，你在演讲的最后提到了利比亚。
18:45
Just briefly, what's your take on the current events there
458
1110000
3000
请大致地讲一下，你对当前在那里发生的事件
18:48
and the intervention?
459
1113000
2000
和干预的看法？
18:50
Rory Stewart: Okay, I think Libya poses the classic problem.
460
1115000
3000
罗里·斯图尔特：好的，我认为利比亚显示了一个很传统的问题。
18:53
The problem in Libya
461
1118000
2000
在利比亚的问题
18:55
is that we are always pushing for the black or white.
462
1120000
2000
是我们总是争取不是黑就是白。
18:57
We imagine there are only two choices:
463
1122000
2000
我们想象一下只有两种选择：
18:59
either full engagement and troop deployment
464
1124000
3000
要不全部投入和部署军队
19:02
or total isolation.
465
1127000
2000
要不就完全孤立起来。
19:04
And we are always being tempted up to our neck.
466
1129000
3000
但是无论我们如何选择。
19:07
We put our toes in and we go up to our neck.
467
1132000
2000
我们都无法得到最好的结果。
19:09
What we should have done in Libya
468
1134000
2000
我们在利比亚应当做的是
19:11
is we should have stuck to the U.N. resolution.
469
1136000
2000
我们应该坚持联合国的决议。
19:13
We should have limited ourselves very, very strictly
470
1138000
3000
我们应该非常、非常的严格限制我们自己
19:16
to the protection of the civilian population in Benghazi.
471
1141000
3000
去保护在班加西的平民。
19:19
We could have done that.
472
1144000
2000
我们应该这样做。
19:21
We set up a no-fly zone within 48 hours
473
1146000
3000
我们在48小时之内建立了禁飞区
19:24
because Gaddafi had no planes
474
1149000
2000
因为卡扎菲Gaddafi在48小时之内
19:26
within 48 hours.
475
1151000
2000
没有飞机。
19:28
Instead of which, we've allowed ourselves to be tempted
476
1153000
3000
相反的，我们允许我们自己受到
19:31
towards regime change.
477
1156000
2000
对政权变更的诱惑。
19:33
In doing so, we've destroyed our credibility with the Security Council,
478
1158000
4000
在这样做时，我们已经摧毁了我们与联合国安理会的信誉
19:37
which means it's very difficult
479
1162000
2000
这也说明这是非常困难
19:39
to get a resolution on Syria,
480
1164000
2000
去找到一个叙利亚的解决方案，
19:41
and we're setting ourselves up again for failure.
481
1166000
3000
并且我们让自己又一次失败了。
19:44
Once more, humility,
482
1169000
2000
再一次，谦卑，
19:46
limits, honesty,
483
1171000
2000
极限，诚实，
19:48
realistic expectations
484
1173000
2000
切实的期望
19:50
and we could have achieved something to be proud of.
485
1175000
2000
以及我们可以做到值得骄傲的事。
19:52
BG: Rory, thank you very much.
486
1177000
2000
BG：罗里，非常感谢。
19:54
RS: Thank you. (BG: Thank you.)
487
1179000
2000
RS：谢谢！（BG：谢谢）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rory Stewart - PoliticianRory Stewart -- a perpetual pedestrian, a diplomat, an adventurer and an author -- is the member of British Parliament for Penrith and the Border.
Why you should listen
Now the member of British Parliament for Penrith and the Border, in rural northwest England, Rory Stewart has led a fascinatingly broad life of public service. He joined the Foreign Office after school, then left to begin a years-long series of walks across the Muslim world. In 2002, his extraordinary walk across post-9/11 Afghanistan resulted in his first book, The Places in Between. After the invasion of Iraq in 2003, he served as a Deputy Governorate Co-Ordinator in Southern Iraq for the coalition forces, and later founded a charity in Kabul.
To secure his Conservative seat in Parliament, he went on a walking tour of Penrith, covering the entire county as he talked to voters. In 2008, Esquire called him one of the 75 most influential people of the 21st century.
He says: "The world isn't one way or another. Things can be changed very, very rapidly by someone with sufficient confidence, sufficient knowledge and sufficient authority."
Rory Stewart | Speaker | TED.com