TEDxWarwick
David MacKay: A reality check on renewables
David MacKay: 对开发可再生能源的理性思考
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到底需要多少土地来用再生能源去供应能源给英国这样的国家呢？一个国家的用电总量会是什么样子的呢？在这个务实的演讲里，David MacKay 通过一些基本的计算方法向我们阐释了可再生能源的一些令人担忧的制约，并向我们解析尽管有各种不利因素，我们也要发展这一能源的原因。（本视频在英国华威郡的TEDxWarwich拍摄）
David MacKay - Professor
As an information theorist and computer scientist, David MacKay uses hard math to assess our renewable energy options. Full bio
As an information theorist and computer scientist, David MacKay uses hard math to assess our renewable energy options. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
When the Industrial Revolution started,
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工业革命刚开始的时候
00:18
the amount of carbon sitting underneath
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在不列颠地下以煤炭形式
00:20
Britain in the form of coal was as big as the amount
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和在沙特阿拉伯地下以石油形式
00:24
of carbon sitting under Saudi Arabia in the form of oil,
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存在的能源资源是一样多的。
00:29
and this carbon powered the Industrial Revolution,
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这些煤炭资源促进了工业革命
00:31
it put the "Great" in Great Britain,
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让英国成了一个工业强国
00:33
and led to Britain's temporary world domination.
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并在世界上取得了短暂的霸权地位
00:37
And then, in 1918, coal production in Britain peaked,
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1918年英国的煤碳产量达到顶峰
00:42
and has declined ever since.
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从那以后便开始下降
00:44
In due course, Britain started using oil and gas
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之后，英国开始使用来自北海的
00:47
from the North Sea, and in the year 2000,
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石油和天然气，到了2000年
00:50
oil and gas production from the North Sea
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北海石油和天燃气的产量也达到顶峰
00:52
also peaked, and they're now on the decline.
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现在呢？它们在减少
00:57
These observations about the finiteness of
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对这些有限的、易获取的
01:00
easily accessible, local, secure fossil fuels,
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本地的、以及安全的矿物能源进行观察
01:04
this is a motivation for saying, "Well, what's next?
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让我们不禁问：“下一种（能源资源）会是什么？”
01:08
What is life after fossil fuels going to be like?
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没有矿物能源的生活会变得怎样？
01:10
Shouldn't we be thinking hard about
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我们不是应该努力设法
01:12
how to get off fossil fuels?"
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摆脱矿物能源吗？
01:14
Another motivation, of course, is climate change.
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另一个引发这些问题的原因当然是气候变化
01:18
And when people talk about life after fossil fuels
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当人们谈论没有矿物能源的生活
01:20
and climate change action, I think there's a lot of
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以及气候变化运动时，我认为他们有
01:23
fluff, a lot of greenwash, a lot of misleading advertising,
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许多误解、虚假公关和误导的广告
01:27
and I feel a duty as a physicist to try to
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作为一个物理学家，我认为有责任去
01:30
guide people around the claptrap and help people
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引导群众防止被误导，并帮助他们
01:33
understand the actions that really make a difference
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去理解真正可以改变世界的行动
01:35
and to focus on ideas that do add up.
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去关注真正有益的想法
01:40
Let me illustrate this with what physicists call
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让我用一种物理学家叫做“猜量推算”方法
01:43
a back-of-envelope calculation.
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来阐述我的想法
01:46
We love back-of-envelope calculations.
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人们喜欢猜量推算
01:47
You ask a question, you write down some numbers,
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你可以提出一个问题，写下一些数字
01:49
and you get yourself an answer.
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然后自己得出一个答案。
01:50
It may not be very accurate, but it may make you say,
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它可能不够准确，但是让你觉得
01:53
"Hmm."
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“嗯，还不错。”
01:54
So here's a question: Imagine if
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想象一下
01:56
we said, "Oh yes, we can get off fossil fuels.
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如果我们说，“是的，我们可以摆脱矿物能源，
01:59
We'll use biofuels. Problem solved.
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我们可以使用生物能源。问题解决了。
02:00
Transport, we don't need oil anymore."
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运输交通再也不需使用石油了。“
02:02
Well, what if we grew the biofuels for a road
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好吧，如果我们在马路的两边种植生物能源作物
02:09
on the grass verge at the edge of the road?
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去供给这条路上的消耗，会怎么样呢？
02:13
How wide would the verge have to be for that to work out?
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需要种植多宽的作物带才足够？
02:17
Okay, so let's put in some numbers.
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让我们来做一些计算
02:18
Let's have our cars go at 60 miles per hour.
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假设车辆以60英里的时速行驶
02:21
Let's say they do 30 miles per gallon.
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以每加仑燃料可以跑30英里来算。
02:23
That's the European average for new cars.
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这是现在欧洲新车的平均数据
02:26
Let's say the productivity of biofuel plantations
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假设生物能源作物的产量为
02:28
is 1,200 litres of biofuel per hectare per year.
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每公顷每年1200升
02:32
That's true of European biofuels.
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这同样也是欧洲的现状
02:34
And let's imagine the cars are spaced 80 meters
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假设车辆间距为80米
02:37
apart from each other, and they're just perpetually going
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他们是延缦不断的
02:39
along this road.
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沿着这条路行驶。
02:40
The length of the road doesn't matter, because the longer
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这条公路的长度不重要
02:42
the road, the more biofuel plantation we've got.
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应为公路有多长，我们就有多少的能源作物。
02:45
What do we do with these numbers?
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有了这些数字我们能做些什么呢？
02:46
Well, you take the first number, and you divide by
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把第一个数除以其他三个数
02:48
the other three, and you get eight kilometers.
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得到8公里
02:50
And that's the answer.
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这就是答案。
02:51
That's how wide the plantation would have to be,
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在之前的假设前提下
02:54
given these assumptions.
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这就是能源作物带所需要的宽度。
02:56
And maybe that makes you say, "Hmm.
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这个答案可能会让你说，”嗯，还不错。”
02:59
Maybe this isn't going to be quite so easy."
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事情可能不那么简单
03:03
And it might make you think, perhaps there's an issue
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你也许会想，面积可能不够
03:07
to do with areas, and in this talk,
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在这里让我来讲讲关于面积的事情
03:09
I'd like to talk about land areas, and ask,
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我会问，面积真的不够吗？
03:12
is there an issue about areas? The answer is going to be
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答案是肯定的，
03:16
yes but it depends which country you are in.
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但这取决于你在哪个国家。
03:18
So let's start in the United Kingdom,
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身在此地，
03:21
since that's where we are today.
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我们从英国开始吧。
03:23
The energy consumption of the United Kingdom,
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英国的能源消耗量
03:25
the total energy consumption, not just transport, but everything,
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是总量，而不仅仅是指交通运输业的消耗量，
03:29
I like to quantify it in light bulbs.
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我喜欢用灯泡来量化它，
03:31
It's as if we've all got 125 light bulbs on all the time,
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能源消耗总量相当于
03:35
125 kilowatt-hours per day per person
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全国每人拥有125个一直亮着的灯泡
03:39
is the energy consumption of the U.K.
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每天每人消耗125千瓦时的电量。
03:42
So there's 40 light bulbs' worth for transport,
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也就是说，交通运输耗能相当于其中40个灯泡，
03:45
40 light bulbs' worth for heating,
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供暖耗能相当于40个灯泡，
03:46
and 40 light bulbs' worth for making electricity,
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发电需要40个灯泡，
03:49
and other things are relatively small
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相对于这三个耗能大鳄
03:51
compared to those three big fish.
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其他的消耗相对会小些。
03:54
It's actually a bigger footprint if we take into account
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如果把每天进口的实体能量也考虑进来
03:56
the embodied energy in the stuff we import
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这实际上是很大的能源消耗
03:58
into our country as well, and 90 percent of this energy today
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其中90%的能源依然来自矿物能源
04:03
still comes from fossil fuels, and 10 percent only
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只有10%的能量来自其它渠道
04:06
from other, greener -- possibly greener -- sources
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更绿色的——可能是更绿色的——能源
04:08
like nuclear power and renewables.
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比如说核能或可再生能源
04:11
So,
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这就是英国的情况
04:13
that's the U.K., and the population density of the U.K.
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英国的人口密度是
04:16
is 250 people per square kilometer,
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250人每平方公里，
04:19
and I'm now going to show you other countries
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现在我要向你们展示
04:21
by these same two measures.
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其他国家的这两项指标。
04:22
On the vertical axis, I'm going to show you
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纵轴代表灯泡个数，
04:24
how much light bulbs -- what our energy consumption
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也就是平均每人的能源消耗量
04:27
per person is, and we're at 125 light bulbs per person,
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我们是每人125个灯泡
04:30
and that little blue dot there is showing you the land area
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那个蓝点的面积可以反映
04:33
of the United Kingdom,
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英国的土地面积，
04:36
and the population density is on the horizontal axis,
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横轴是人口密度，
04:38
and we're 250 people per square kilometer.
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我们是每平方公里250人。
04:41
Let's add European countries in blue,
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同样用蓝色代表其他的欧洲国家，
04:44
and you can see there's quite a variety.
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你们会发现差异很大。
04:46
I should emphasize, both of these axes
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应该强调，两个坐标轴的都是对数的
04:49
are logarithmic. As you go from one gray bar
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从一个灰杠到下一个灰杠
04:51
to the next gray bar you're going up a factor of 10.
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会增长10倍。
04:54
Next, let's add Asia in red,
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下面，用红色代表亚洲国家，
04:57
the Middle East and North Africa in green,
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绿色代表中东和北非国家，
05:01
sub-Saharan Africa in blue,
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蓝色代表非洲的撒哈拉以南地区，
05:04
black is South America,
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黑色代表南美，
05:07
purple is Central America,
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紫色代表中美洲，
05:10
and then in pukey-yellow, we have North America,
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淡黄色代表北美洲、
05:13
Australia and New Zealand.
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澳大利亚和新西兰。
05:16
And you can see the great diversity of population densities
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可以看到在人口密度和人均消耗上
05:18
and of per capita consumptions.
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有很大的差别。
05:22
Countries are different from each other.
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国家之间各有不同。
05:24
Top left, we have Canada and Australia, with enormous
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左上角是加拿大和澳大利亚
05:26
land areas, very high per capita consumption,
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它们有很大的陆地面积，很高的人均消耗，
05:29
200 or 300 light bulbs per person,
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相当于每人200或300个灯泡，
05:32
and very low population densities.
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而其人口密度相对较低。
05:36
Top right, Bahrain has the same energy consumption
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右上角是巴林岛
05:38
per person, roughly, as Canada,
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与加拿大有相仿的人均消耗值，
05:41
over 300 light bulbs per person,
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相当于每人超过300个灯泡
05:43
but their population density is a factor of 300 times greater,
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但是人口密度是加拿大的300倍，
05:46
1,000 people per square kilometer.
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约1000人每平方公里。
05:48
Bottom right, Bangladesh has the same population density
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右下角是孟加拉国
05:51
as Bahrain but consumes 100 times less per person.
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和巴林岛有同样的人口密度，但人均消耗要少100倍
05:56
Bottom left, well, there's no one.
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曾经有大量人口的左下角，
05:59
But there used to be a whole load of people.
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现在一个国家也没有。
06:01
Here's another message from this diagram.
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这个图标还可以提供另一个信息。
06:03
I've added on little blue tails behind Sudan, Libya,
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我在苏丹、利比亚、中国、印度以及孟加拉
06:07
China, India, Bangladesh.
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的圆点加上了蓝色的线条
06:08
That's 15 years of progress.
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这是个15年的过程。
06:10
Where were they 15 years ago, and where are they now?
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15年前它们在哪？现在在哪？
06:13
And the message is, most countries are going to the right,
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我们得到的结论是，大部分这些国家在向右边区域靠近
06:15
and they're going up,
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并且呈上升趋势，
06:16
up and to the right -- bigger population density
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向右上角走代表着更高的人口密度
06:19
and higher per capita consumption.
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和更高的人均耗能。
06:21
So, we may be off in the top right-hand corner,
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我们英国也在右上角，
06:23
slightly unusual, the United Kingdom accompanied by
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和德国、日本
06:26
Germany, Japan, South Korea, the Netherlands,
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韩国、荷兰
06:29
and a bunch of other slightly odd countries,
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以及一些不出名的国家在一起
06:31
but many other countries are coming up
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但是有许多其他国家在赶上来
06:34
and to the right to come and join us,
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并且向右移来加入我们，
06:36
so we're a picture, if you like, of what the future energy
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可以这么说，我们是一个样板，
06:39
consumption might be looking like in other countries too.
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很多其他国家的能源消耗将来会与我们现在一样的情况一样。
06:44
And I've also added in this diagram now some pink lines
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现在我在图标中加入了一些粉色的线条
06:47
that go down and to the right.
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指向右下方
06:49
Those are lines of equal power consumption
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他们代表相同的单位面积耗能
06:51
per unit area, which I measure in watts per square meter.
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单位是瓦特每平方米
06:55
So, for example, the middle line there,
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举例来说，中间的那条线
06:57
0.1 watts per square meter, is the energy consumption
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0.1瓦特每平方米，是沙特阿拉伯、挪威、
07:00
per unit area of Saudi Arabia, Norway, Mexico in purple,
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紫色代表的墨西哥以及孟加拉15年前的
07:05
and Bangladesh 15 years ago,
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单位面积能源消耗，
07:08
and half of the world's population lives in countries
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世界的一半以上人口都居住在
07:11
that are already above that line.
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在这条线之上的国家里。
07:15
The United Kingdom is consuming 1.25
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英国平均每平方米
07:18
watts per square meter.
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消耗1.25瓦特的电量。
07:20
So's Germany, and Japan is consuming a bit more.
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德国也一样。而日本比英国多一点点。
07:25
So, let's now
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现在我来解释一下为什么
07:27
say why this is relevant. Why is it relevant?
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这个数字有关联。为什么其有关联？
07:30
Well, we can measure renewables in the same units
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我们可以用同样的单位来估量可再生能源
07:33
and other forms of power production in the same units,
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以及其他形式的能源
07:36
and renewables is one of the leading ideas for
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为了摆脱那90%的矿物能源
07:39
how we could get off our 90 percent fossil fuel habit.
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可再生能源是众望所归的一个想法。
07:43
So here come some renewables.
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以下是一些关于可再生能源的信息。
07:44
Energy crops deliver half a watt per square meter
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在欧洲的气候下，每平方米能源作物
07:47
in European climates.
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可以提供0.5瓦特的能源
07:50
What does that mean? And you might have anticipated
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这意味着什么？你或者可以
07:52
that result, given what I told you about the biofuel plantation
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通过刚才我对生物燃料种植的介绍
07:55
a moment ago.
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预料到这一结果了。
07:56
Well, we consume 1.25 watts per square meter.
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我们每平方米平均耗能1.25瓦特。
07:59
What this means is, even if you covered
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这意味着即使整个英国
08:01
the whole of the United Kingdom with energy crops,
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都种满了能源作物，
08:04
you couldn't match today's energy consumption.
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其依然不足以提供当今水平的能耗。
08:08
Wind power produces a bit more,
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风力发电许会更高效一些，
08:10
2.5 watts per square meter, but that's only twice as big
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其可以达到每平方米可以产生2.5瓦特的电量，但那只是
08:13
as 1.25 watts per square meter,
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1.25瓦特每平方米的两倍，
08:16
so that means if you wanted literally to produce total
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这意味着如果仅用风能
08:20
energy consumption in all forms on average from
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来提供所有的能源消耗，
08:22
wind farms, you need wind farms half the area of the U.K.
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你需要占地半个英国那么大面积的风力发电厂才能做到。
08:27
I've got data to back up all these assertions, by the way.
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顺便说一句，我的这些说法都是有数据支持的。
08:31
Next, let's look at solar power.
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下面再看看太阳能。
08:33
Solar panels, when you put them on a roof,
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放在英格兰屋顶的太阳能面板
08:36
deliver about 20 watts per square meter in England.
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每平方米大概可提供20瓦特的电量。
08:41
If you really want to get a lot from solar panels,
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如果想得到更高的在太阳能发电量，
08:43
you need to adopt the traditional Bavarian farming method
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则需要采用传统巴伐利亚农耕的方法
08:46
where you leap off the roof and coat the countryside
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即跳下屋顶，把整个农村
08:49
with solar panels too.
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铺满太阳能面板。
08:51
Solar parks, because of the gaps between the panels,
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因为面板之间的缝隙，太阳能园区的效率比预期小一些
08:53
deliver less. They deliver about 5 watts
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每平方米大概可以提供
08:55
per square meter of land area.
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5瓦特的能量。
08:57
And here's a solar park in Vermont with real data
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这是佛蒙特一个太阳能园区的真实数据
09:00
delivering 4.2 watts per square meter.
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每平方米可以产生4.2瓦特的能量。
09:03
Remember where we are, 1.25 watts per square meter,
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记住我们的这些信息，真实能耗是1.25瓦特每平方米，
09:06
wind farms 2.5, solar parks about five.
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风能是2.5瓦特, 太阳能园区大概是5瓦特
09:10
So, whatever, whichever of those renewables you pick,
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所以，无论你怎么选，
09:14
the message is, whatever mix of those renewables
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事实是，无论怎么混合这些可再生能源
09:16
you're using, if you want to power the U.K. on them,
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如果想要提供全英国的能源，
09:19
you're going to need to cover something like
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就必须要将大概
09:21
20 percent or 25 percent of the country
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整个英国面积的20%到25%
09:24
with those renewables.
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用在这些可再生能源方面。
09:26
And I'm not saying that's a bad idea.
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我并没有说这是个坏想法。
09:28
We just need to understand the numbers.
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只是我们需要了解这些数字。
09:29
I'm absolutely not anti-renewables. I love renewables.
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我绝对不反对可再生能源，我喜欢它们。
09:32
But I'm also pro-arithmetic. (Laughter)
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但我更倾向于算数。
09:36
Concentrating solar power in deserts delivers
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因为不用担心云彩遮挡
09:39
larger powers per unit area, because you don't have
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集中在沙漠采集太阳能
09:41
the problem of clouds,
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可以提供更多的能量
09:42
and so this facility delivers 14 watts per square meter,
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所以这个设备可以提供14瓦特每平方米，
09:45
this one 10 watts per square meter,
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2018
这个是10瓦特每平方米，
09:47
and this one in Spain 5 watts per square meter.
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这一个在西班牙，可提供5瓦特每平方米。
09:50
Being generous to concentrating solar power,
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乐观估计，集中的太阳能能源，
09:52
I think it's perfect credible it could deliver 20 watts
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完全有可能提供20瓦特每平方米。
09:55
per square meter. So that's nice.
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那就很不错了。
09:57
Of course, Britain doesn't have any deserts.
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当然，英国没有沙漠。
10:00
Yet. (Laughter)
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至少暂时还没有。（笑声）
10:03
So here's a summary so far.
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所以， 先让我们对前面所说的做一个小结。
10:06
All renewables, much as I love them, are diffuse.
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所有的可再生能源都比较低效，尽管我很喜欢他们。
10:09
They all have a small power per unit area,
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他们的单位面积效率都比较低，
10:11
and we have to live with that fact.
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人们必须意识到这个事实，
10:13
And that means, if you do want renewables
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那意味着如果你真的
10:17
to make a substantial difference for a country like
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想在类似英国的国家全面使用可再生能源，
10:19
the United Kingdom on the scale of today's consumption,
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在如今的耗能水平下
10:23
you need to be imagining renewable facilities
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可再生能源作物或设备的占地就必须与全国面积相当
10:25
that are country-sized, not the entire country
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不是整个国土而是一部分
10:28
but a fraction of the country, a substantial fraction.
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相当大的一部分。
10:33
There are other options for generating power as well
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不用矿物能源的话
10:35
which don't involve fossil fuels.
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还有其他的选择可以生产能源。
10:37
So there's nuclear power, and on this Ordnance
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在这份英国地形测量局的地图上
10:40
Survey map, you can see there's a Sizewell B
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你可以在蓝色的一平方公里中看到Sizewell B字样
10:42
inside a blue square kilometer.
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那是一个核电厂
10:44
That's one gigawatt in a square kilometer,
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一平方公里的核电厂可以产生10亿瓦特的能量，
10:46
which works out to 1,000 watts per square meter.
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相当于每平方米1000瓦特。
10:49
So by this particular metric, nuclear power
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从单位面积产能的标准来说，
10:51
isn't as intrusive as renewables.
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核能比可再生能源要好很多。
10:57
Of course, other metrics matter too, and nuclear power
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当然，其他的标准也很重要，
10:59
has all sorts of popularity problems.
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核能有其他各种各样常见的问题。
11:02
But the same goes for renewables as well.
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可再生能源也同样有其他问题。
11:04
Here's a photograph of a consultation exercise in full swing
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这张照片上，在爱丁堡南部的小镇佩尼库克
11:06
in the little town of Penicuik just outside Edinburgh,
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一场协商正在如火如荼的进行，
11:10
and you can see the children of Penicuik celebrating
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你可以看到佩尼库克的孩子们
11:12
the burning of the effigy of the windmill.
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在围观燃烧着的风车。
11:14
So people are anti-everything, and we've got to keep
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人们反对所有事，我们需要
11:19
all the options on the table.
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把所有方案都摆到桌面来谈。
11:22
What can a country like the U.K. do on the supply side?
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在能源供给方面，英国有哪些方案呢？
11:25
Well, the options are, I'd say, these three:
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我认为有三种：
11:28
power renewables, and recognizing that they need to be
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需要占用大量国土面积的可再生能源
11:31
close to country-sized; other people's renewables,
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其他国家的可再生能源，
11:34
so we could go back and talk very politely to the people
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我们可以很得体地
11:37
in the top left-hand side of the diagram and say,
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与那些处于图标左上角的国家说
11:39
"Uh, we don't want renewables in our backyard,
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呃，我们不想在自己的地盘上种能源作物，
11:41
but, um, please could we put them in yours instead?"
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可不可以种在你们那种呢？
11:45
And that's a serious option.
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这是一个值得考虑的选项。
11:46
It's a way for the world to handle this issue.
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世界上很多问题都是这样解决的。
11:50
So countries like Australia, Russia, Libya, Kazakhstan,
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像澳大利亚、俄罗斯、利比亚还有卡撒克斯坦这些国家
11:54
could be our best friends for renewable production.
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都可以作为我们种植能源作物的伙伴国家。
11:59
And a third option is nuclear power.
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第三个选择是核能。
12:01
So that's some supply side options.
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这是供给方面的对策。
12:03
In addition to the supply levers that we can push,
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我们除了可以增加供给杠杆外，
12:06
and remember, we need large amounts,
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对了，要记住我们的需求量很大，
12:08
because at the moment,
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因为目前，
12:09
we get 90 percent of our energy from fossil fuels.
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我们90%能源都来这矿物能源。
12:12
In addition to those levers, we could talk about other ways
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除了增加和改善供给，其实还有其他方法
12:14
of solving this issue, namely, we could reduce demand,
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去解决能源问题，也就是减少需求，
12:17
and that means reducing population
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2005
那意味着要缩减人口
12:19
— I'm not sure how to do that —
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或减少人均耗能
12:21
or reducing per capita consumption.
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对于前者我无能为力
12:25
So let's talk about three more big levers
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让我们讨论一下在消耗方面
12:27
that could really help on the consumption side.
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能起到改善的三个办法
12:29
First, transport. Here are the physics principles that tell you
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第一，运输。 有一些物理法则可以告诉你
12:32
how to reduce the energy consumption of transport,
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怎么能减少运输的能源消耗，
12:35
and people often say, "Oh, yes, technology can answer everything.
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人们经常会说：”哦，对，科技能解决所有事。
12:37
We can make vehicles that are a hundred times more
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甚至可以让交通工具比现在节能100倍以上。“
12:39
efficient." And that's almost true. Let me show you.
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但这是真的，让我展示给你们看。
12:42
The energy consumption of this typical tank here
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这辆车的能耗是
12:45
is 80 kilowatt-hours per hundred person kilometers.
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80千瓦时每100个客运周转量。
12:48
That's the average European car.
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这是一种在欧洲常见的车。
12:53
Eighty kilowatt-hours. Can we make something a hundred times
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80千瓦时。我们可以用之前列出的物理法则
12:55
better by applying those physics principles I just listed?
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让它的效率提高100倍吗？
12:57
Yes. Here it is. It's the bicycle. It's 80 times better in energy
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当然可以，这个自行车的节能比高出80倍！
13:02
consumption, and it's powered by biofuel, by Weetabix.
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并且使用的是生物能源-------以谷物为燃料。
13:05
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
13:07
And there are other options in between, because maybe
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当然在普通汽车和自行车之间还有其他选择的，
13:09
the lady in the tank would say, "No, no, no,
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坐在小车里的女会说：“不，不”
13:11
that's a lifestyle change. Don't change my lifestyle, please."
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“这会改变我的生活方式。请不要改变我的生活方式。”
13:13
So, well, we could persuade her to get into a train,
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因此，我们可以说服她去坐火车，
13:16
and that's still a lot more efficient than a car,
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2048
这也是比小车更节能的方式，
13:18
but that might be a lifestyle change,
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1181
但这需要一些生活方式的改变，
13:19
or there's the eco-car, top-left.
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1734
或者选用环保车----在左上角
13:21
It comfortably accommodates one teenager
286
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1994
这种车可以坐得下一个青少年
13:23
and it's shorter than a traffic cone,
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1609
但比一个交通锥体还短,
13:24
and it's almost as efficient as a bicycle
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2026
其基本上和自行车一样节能
13:27
as long as you drive it at 15 miles per hour.
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只要你速度不超过每小时15英里的话。
13:30
In between, perhaps some more realistic options
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在这两者之间，可能还会有些更实际的选择
13:32
on this lever, transport lever, are electric vehicles,
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在交通业上，有电力驱动的机车，
13:35
so electric bikes and electric cars in the middle,
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所以，电动自行车和电动汽车当其中，
13:38
perhaps four times as energy efficient
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2124
相对于使用汽油的车子
13:40
as the standard petrol-powered tank.
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它们也许可以节能四倍。
13:44
Next, there's the heating lever.
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下一个是取暖
13:46
Heating is a third of our energy consumption in Britain,
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3416
取暖耗能量占英国能耗的三分之一，
13:50
and quite a lot of that is going into homes
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很多是在家庭使用的
13:51
and other buildings doing space heating and water heating.
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而其它大型的建筑采用空间取暖和水暖系统。
13:55
So here's a typical crappy British house.
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2422
所以，这是一个很典型的、很糟糕的英国式房子。
13:57
It's my house, with the Ferrari out front.
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这是我的房子，房子前面停着我的法拉利小车。
14:01
What can we do to it?
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我们怎么能改变一下呢？
14:02
Well, the laws of physics are written up there,
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物理法则在这里写得很清楚：
14:05
which describe what -- how the power consumption
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5383
取暖的能源消耗
14:11
for heating is driven by the things you can control.
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2422
是由你能控制的东西来决定的。
14:13
The things you can control are the temperature difference
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2578
你能控制的就是
14:16
between the inside and the outside, and there's this
306
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2024
室内与室外温差的变化
14:18
remarkable technology called a thermostat.
307
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1968
而这是一种很了不起的技术-------温控器。
14:20
You grasp it, you rotate it to the left,
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1918
有了这个东西，你将其往左调，
14:22
and your energy consumption in the home will decrease.
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2329
你家里的能源消耗将会大大减少。
14:24
I've tried it. It works. Some people call it a lifestyle change.
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我试过，真管用。有些人将这叫做生活方式的改变。
14:28
You can also get the fluff men in to reduce the leakiness
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4280
以减少你的建筑物的能源漏失，你也可以请工人来为房屋加装绒毛
14:32
of your building -- put fluff in the walls, fluff in the roof,
312
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1920
---如在墙体、在天花板处
14:34
and a new front door and so forth,
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3257
或者加装一道新门等等，
14:38
and the sad truth is, this will save you money.
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尽管这能给你省些钱，但仍然是很悲剧的做法。
14:41
That's not sad, that's good, but the sad truth is, it'll only
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2920
能省钱是好事啊？怎么成悲剧了呢？
14:44
get about 25 percent of the leakiness of your building,
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3263
我说它悲剧是因为此举只能减少楼房的能量流失的25%
14:47
if you do these things, which are good ideas.
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2097
如果你这样做了，也不失为一种明智的举动。
14:49
If you really want to get a bit closer to Swedish
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2845
如果你想与一间这样差劲的房子的
14:52
building standards with a crappy house like this,
319
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2454
防热流失的标准接近瑞典的楼房标准的话，
14:55
you need to be putting external insulation on the building
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3713
你得在楼房的内部加入很多的绝缘材料
14:58
as shown by this block of flats in London.
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3821
正如我们所看到的伦敦的这一街区的楼房一样。
15:02
You can also deliver heat more efficiently using heat pumps
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2953
你还可以用热能泵更高效地将暖气输送到楼房的各处
15:05
which use a smaller bit of high grade energy like electricity
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3238
而这种机器只消耗一点高端的能源，如电
15:08
to move heat from your garden into your house.
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就能把你花园里的热能输送到你的房子里面去。
15:12
The third demand side option I want to talk about,
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第三个可供选择的项目是
15:14
the third way to reduce energy consumption is,
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1752
第三种减少能源消耗的方法就是：
15:16
read your meters.
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1649
看好你的电表
15:18
And people talk a lot about smart meters,
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1492
很多人都在说智能的能源消耗计量表
15:19
but you can do it yourself.
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972
但其实你自己就是很智能的一个计量表。
15:20
Use your own eyes and be smart, read your meter,
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3550
用自己的眼睛，精明地读你的计量表，
15:24
and if you're anything like me, it'll change your life.
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2505
如果你也是我这类人的话，这将改变你的生活。
15:26
Here's a graph I made.
332
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1557
这是一张我做的图表。
15:28
I was writing a book about sustainable energy,
333
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2534
我当时在写一本关于可持续能源的书。
15:30
and a friend asked me, "Well how much energy do you use
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2439
有个朋友问我, "你呆在家里消耗了多少能源？"
15:33
at home?" And I was embarrassed. I didn't actually know.
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2240
这一问使我感到无地自容：我确实不知道。
15:35
And so I started reading the meter every week,
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2151
自那时始，我就开始每星期都看一下我的计量表
15:37
and the old meter readings are shown
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旧的计量表的读数
15:39
in the top half of the graph, and then 2007
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显示在这张图表的上方。而自2007年的读数
15:42
is shown in green at the bottom, and that was when
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以绿色显示在图表的下半部分。而这是
15:44
I was reading the meter every week, and my life changed,
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我每周都看计量表之后的事了。我改变了自己的生活
15:46
because I started doing experiments and seeing
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因为我开始做实验来观察
15:49
what made a difference, and my gas consumption
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我怎么做才能更节能。我的天燃气消耗有所下降
15:51
plummeted because I started tinkering
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这是因为我开始留意温控器
15:52
with the thermostat and the timing on the heating system,
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和供暖系统的时间控制
15:55
and I knocked more than a half off my gas bills.
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而我省了一半的天燃气的开支费用。
15:57
There's a similar story for my electricity consumption,
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我的用电量也是如此，
16:00
where switching off the DVD players, the stereos,
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通过随手关掉那些永远开着的DVD播放器、音响、
16:04
the computer peripherals that were on all the time,
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计算机外围设备等等，
16:07
and just switching them on when I needed them,
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我只在需要使用这些电子产品时才会将他们打开，
16:09
knocked another third off my electricity bills too.
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这样，我的用电量又被减了三分之一。
16:13
So we need a plan that adds up, and I've described for you
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所以，我们需要一个可行的计划，也就是我之前为你描述过的
16:16
six big levers, and we need big action because we get
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六个方面。我们需要采取切实的行动
16:19
90 percent of our energy from fossil fuels,
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因为我们90%的能源来自于化石燃料，
16:22
and so you need to push hard on most if not all of these levers.
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就算你不能做到所有这些l事，你也得努力做到他们当中的大部分吧。
16:26
And most of these levers have popularity problems,
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大部分这些选择都有“偏爱“的问题，
16:29
and if there is a lever you don't like the use of,
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如果你不喜欢某一选择的使用，
16:32
well please do bear in mind that means you need
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那你要切记，这意味着你需要
16:35
even stronger effort on the other levers.
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在其它方面上花更大的力气。
16:39
So I'm a strong advocate of having grown-up conversations
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所以，我是一个成熟的、成年人对话的积极倡议者
16:42
that are based on numbers and facts, and I want to close
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这些对话应该基于数学与事实。
16:45
with this map that just visualizes for you
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我想用这张地图来结束我的演讲
16:48
the requirement of land and so forth in order to get
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对土地等等的要求，目的是为了
16:52
just 16 light bulbs per person
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每个人只需要使用16只灯泡
16:54
from four of the big possible sources.
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从四种最大可能的能源中。
16:58
So, if you wanted to get 16 light bulbs, remember,
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所以，如果你只想要16只灯泡，请记住
17:01
today our total energy consumption is 125 light bulbs' worth.
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目前我们每个人的能源消耗量相当于125个灯泡的用量。
17:05
If you wanted 16 from wind, this map visualizes a solution
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如果你想使用风能供电的16只灯泡，这张图可以为英国找到一个解决办法
17:09
for the U.K. It's got 160 wind farms,
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这里有160间风力发电厂，
17:12
each 100 square kilometers in size,
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每间的面积为100平方公里，
17:15
and that would be a twentyfold increase
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依最近的风量，
17:16
over today's amount of wind.
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这一数字将会增长20倍。
17:19
Nuclear power, to get 16 light bulbs per person, you'd need
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核电，为了达到每个人16个灯光的用电量，
17:22
two gigawatts at each of the purple dots on the map.
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你需要在这张图的紫色点上获得两千兆瓦的电量。
17:24
That's a fourfold increase
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这意味着核电厂的数量
17:26
over today's levels of nuclear power.
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要在现有数量的基础上增加四倍。
17:29
Biomass, to get 16 light bulbs per person, you'd need
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要用生物能源来解决每个人16个灯泡的用电量，我们需要
17:32
a land area something like three and a half Wales' worth,
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一个比威尔士大3.5倍的地方来积体这些作物。
17:36
either in our country, or in someone else's country,
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我们可以在英国本土或外国去找一个这样的地方，
17:40
possibly Ireland, possibly somewhere else. (Laughter)
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可能是爱尔兰比较合适，或别的什么国家吧。（笑声）
17:43
And a fourth supply side option, concentrating solar power
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第四种选择：太阳能
17:46
in other people's deserts,
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但要将它建在别国的沙漠里，
17:48
if you wanted to get 16 light bulbs' worth,
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如果你想得到人均16个灯泡的电能，
17:50
then we're talking about these eight hexagons
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我们谈的就是这张地图中的这8个六边形
17:53
down at the bottom right.
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就是在右下角的这些。
17:54
The total area of those hexagons
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这些六边形的总面积
17:57
is two Greater London's worth of someone else's Sahara,
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相当于两个大伦敦地区这么大，或者是撒哈啦沙漠那么大,
18:01
and you'll need power lines all the way across Spain
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另外，我们还需要架设大量的电线,
18:03
and France to bring the power from the Sahara to Surrey.
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并让这些电线杆穿超西班牙、法国才能将这些撒哈啦沙漠的电输送到萨里。
18:08
We need a plan that adds up.
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我们需要一个切实可行的计划。
18:12
We need to stop shouting and start talking,
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我们需要停止空喊口号而坐下来谈正事，
18:16
and if we can have a grown-up conversation,
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如果我们能象成年一样进行理性的对话，
18:19
make a plan that adds up and get building,
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做一个可行的计划并着手进行建设，
18:22
maybe this low-carbon revolution
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或许，这种低碳排放的解决办法
18:24
will actually be fun. Thank you very much for listening.
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或许会很趣。谢谢大家。
18:26
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
David MacKay - ProfessorAs an information theorist and computer scientist, David MacKay uses hard math to assess our renewable energy options.
Why you should listen
David MacKay is a professor of Natural Philosophy in the Physics department at the University of Cambridge and chief scientific adviser to the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change. He received a degree in Experimental and Theoretical Physics from Trinity College and a PhD. in Computation and Neural Systems as a Fulbright Scholar at Caltech. In 1992, MacKay was made the Royal Society Smithson Research Fellow at Darwin College at University of Cambridge and was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society in May 2009. He has also taught at the African Institute for Mathematical Sciences in Cape Town. In 2003, his book Information Theory, Inference, and Learning Algorithms was published and, in 2008, he self-published Sustainable Energy — Without the Hot Air. Both books are fully available for free online.
David MacKay | Speaker | TED.com