TED@UPS
Augie Picado: The real reason manufacturing jobs are disappearing
奥吉·皮卡多: 制造业工作岗位流失的真相
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1,763,045 views
最近我们听到许多传言，像美国这样的国家正在将珍贵的制造业工作岗位让给中国、墨西哥和越南这样的国家，因为那里的成本比较低，而贸易保护主义可以防止这一切的发生。然而跨境物流专家奥吉·皮卡多对此并不赞同。他为我们分析了全球贸易现状，以及协同生产和开放的边境如何帮助我们生产物美价廉的产品。
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
When someone mentions Cuba,
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当有人提到古巴的时候，
00:14
what do you think about?
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你会想到什么？
00:17
Classic, classic cars?
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老爷车？
00:19
Perhaps good cigars?
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上等雪茄？
00:21
Maybe you think
of a famous baseball player.
of a famous baseball player.
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或者某位著名的棒球运动员。
而提到北朝鲜呢？
00:23
What about when somebody
mentions North Korea?
mentions North Korea?
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你会想到导弹试射，
00:26
You think about those missile tests,
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00:28
maybe their notorious leader
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或者名声不怎么好的领导人
00:30
or his good friend, Dennis Rodman.
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或者他的好朋友，丹尼斯·罗德曼。
00:32
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
00:34
One thing that likely doesn't come to mind
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而提到这些国家时，
00:36
is a vision of a country,
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你绝不会想到的是，
00:38
an open economy,
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经济开放，
00:40
whose citizens have access to a wide range
of affordable consumer products.
of affordable consumer products.
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民众能买得到众多消费品，
而且也负担得起。
而且也负担得起。
00:47
I'm not here to argue how these countries
got to where they are today.
got to where they are today.
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我今天不想讨论这些国家
是怎么走到今天这种境地的。
是怎么走到今天这种境地的。
00:51
I simply want to use them
as an example of countries and citizens
as an example of countries and citizens
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我仅仅想把它们作为一种典型，
00:55
who have been affected,
negatively affected,
negatively affected,
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来说明国家和民众，
是如何被限制进口，
是如何被限制进口，
00:58
by a trade policy that restricts imports
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保护本地工业的贸易政策所影响，
01:01
and protects local industries.
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负面的影响。
01:04
Recently we've heard a number of countries
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最近我们听说有许多国家
01:07
talk about restricting imports
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在谈论限制进口，
01:09
and protecting their local,
domestic industries.
domestic industries.
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保护国内的工业。
01:12
Now, this may sound fine in a sound bite,
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如果作为新闻标题，
可能听起来还不错，
可能听起来还不错，
01:15
but what it really is is protectionism.
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但这实际上是一种贸易保护主义。
01:19
We heard a lot about this
during the 2016 presidential election.
during the 2016 presidential election.
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我们在2016年总统大选期间
听到过很多这样的表述。
听到过很多这样的表述。
01:23
We heard about it
during the Brexit debates
during the Brexit debates
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在英国退出欧盟期间也听过不少，
01:26
and most recently
during the French elections.
during the French elections.
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还有最近的法国大选也是一样。
01:30
In fact, it's been
a really important topic
a really important topic
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实际上，这个议题非常重要，
01:33
being talked about around the world,
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在世界各国都是如此，
01:35
and many aspiring political leaders
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许多有抱负的政治领袖
01:38
are running on platforms
positioning protectionism as a good thing.
positioning protectionism as a good thing.
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都会把贸易保护主义视为一件好事，
并将其纳入自己的纲领中。
并将其纳入自己的纲领中。
01:42
Now, I could see why they think
protectionism is good,
protectionism is good,
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我现在有点明白为何他们
把贸易保护主义视为好事，
把贸易保护主义视为好事，
01:45
because sometimes
it seems like trade is unfair.
it seems like trade is unfair.
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因为有时候贸易看起来是不平等的。
01:51
Some have blamed trade
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有人还会责怪贸易，
01:53
for some of the problems
we've been having here at home in the US.
we've been having here at home in the US.
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认为贸易是美国国内
很多问题的源头。
很多问题的源头。
有一件事情我们谈论了好几年，
01:56
For years we've been hearing
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01:57
about the loss of high-paying
US manufacturing jobs.
US manufacturing jobs.
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就是关于美国高薪制造业
工作岗位的流失。
工作岗位的流失。
02:01
Many think that manufacturing
is declining in the US
is declining in the US
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很多人认为美国制造业的衰退
02:05
because companies are moving
their operations offshore
their operations offshore
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是因为企业将业务转移到海外那些
02:08
to markets with lower-cost labor
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劳动力价格低廉的市场中去了，
02:10
like China, Mexico and Vietnam.
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比如中国，墨西哥和越南。
02:14
They also think trade agreements
sometimes are unfair,
sometimes are unfair,
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他们还认为贸易协定
有时候是不公平的，
有时候是不公平的，
02:18
like NAFTA
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比如北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)，
02:20
and the Trans-Pacific Partnership,
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比如跨太平洋伙伴关系(TPP)，
02:21
because these trade agreements
allow companies
allow companies
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因为这些贸易协定允许企业
02:25
to reimport those cheaply
produced goods back into the US
produced goods back into the US
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从那些获得了工作岗位的国家
重新进口廉价生产的货物
重新进口廉价生产的货物
02:29
and other countries
from where the jobs were taken.
from where the jobs were taken.
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到那些岗位被抢走的美国和其它国家。
02:32
So it kind of feels like the exporters win
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感觉好像是出口国赚了，
02:36
and the importers lose.
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而进口国亏了。
02:38
Now, the reality is
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而目前的现状是，
02:40
output in the manufacturing
sector in the US
sector in the US
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美国制造业的产量
02:44
is actually growing,
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实际上是在增长的，
02:45
but we are losing jobs.
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但是我们的工作岗位在流失。
02:47
We're losing lots of them.
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大量的流失。
02:49
In fact, from 2000 to 2010,
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从2000年到2010年，
我们失去了570万个制造业岗位。
02:52
5.7 million manufacturing jobs were lost.
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02:56
But they're not being lost
for the reasons you might think.
for the reasons you might think.
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但流失的原因并不是
大家所想象的那样。
大家所想象的那样。
03:01
Mike Johnson in Toledo, Ohio
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俄亥俄州托莱多市的麦克·约翰逊，
03:04
didn't lose his jobs at the factory
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他的工作并不是被墨西哥蒙特雷的
03:06
to Miguel Sanchez in Monterrey, Mexico.
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米格尔·桑切斯抢走的。
03:08
No.
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不是这样的。
麦克的工作是被机器抢走了。
03:09
Mike lost his job to a machine.
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03:13
87 percent of lost manufacturing jobs
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制造业岗位的流失中，
03:16
have been eliminated
because we've made improvements
because we've made improvements
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有87%是因为我们通过自动化改造
03:19
in our own productivity
through automation.
through automation.
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提高了生产率。
03:23
So that means that one out of 10
lost manufacturing jobs
lost manufacturing jobs
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这就意味着，只有十分之一的
制造业岗位流失
制造业岗位流失
03:28
was due to offshoring.
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跟生产转移到国外有关。
03:31
Now, this is not just a US phenomenon.
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这种现象不仅仅发生在美国。
03:34
No.
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不是的。
03:35
In fact, automation is spreading
to every production line
to every production line
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自动化正在蔓延到世界上每一个国家，
03:38
in every country around the world.
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每一条生产线上。
03:41
But look, I get it:
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但我承认，表面上看，
03:43
if you just lost your job
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如果你刚刚失业，
03:44
and then you read in the newspaper
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紧接着你在报纸上看到
你的老东家跟中国刚刚签了一笔订单，
03:46
that your old company
just struck up a deal with China,
just struck up a deal with China,
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03:49
it's easy to think you were just replaced
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你就很容易联想到
自己在一对一交易中
自己在一对一交易中
03:51
in a one-for-one deal.
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被替代掉了。
03:54
When I hear stories like this,
I think that what people picture
I think that what people picture
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每当我听到这样的故事，我就会想，
人们往往认为贸易
只发生在两个国家之间。
只发生在两个国家之间。
03:57
is that trade happens
between only two countries.
between only two countries.
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04:01
Manufacturers in one country
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一个国家的生产商
04:03
produce products and they export them
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生产产品，然后出口到
04:05
to consumers in other countries,
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其他国家的消费者手中，
04:09
and it feels like
the manufacturing countries win
the manufacturing countries win
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看起来感觉生产国赚了，
04:12
and the importing countries lose.
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而进口国亏了。
04:15
Well, reality's a little bit different.
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实际情况其实有所不同。
04:19
I'm a supply chain professional,
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我是一名供应链专家，
04:21
and I live and work in Mexico.
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我在墨西哥生活和工作。
04:24
And I work in the middle
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我的工作属于
04:25
of a highly connected network
of manufacturers
of manufacturers
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一个紧密联系的制造商网络，
它们来自世界各地，互相协作，
04:29
all collaborating from around the world
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04:31
to produce many
of the products we use today.
of the products we use today.
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共同生产许多我们日常所需的产品。
04:34
What I see
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我在墨西哥城
获得的第一手见闻
04:35
from my front-row seat in Mexico City
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更符合下面这种情况。
04:38
actually looks more like this.
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04:41
And this is a more accurate depiction
of what trade really looks like.
of what trade really looks like.
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这是对于真实的贸易更为精确的描述。
04:46
I've had the pleasure of being able to see
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我有幸能看到
各种各样的产品是如何生产出来的，
04:48
how many different products
are manufactured,
are manufactured,
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04:51
from golf clubs to laptop computers
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从高尔夫球杆到笔记本电脑，
04:54
to internet servers, automobiles
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网络服务器，汽车，
04:56
and even airplanes.
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甚至飞机。
04:58
And believe me, none of it
happens in a straight line.
happens in a straight line.
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相信我，没有哪一种产品
来自刚刚那条两国之间的直线。
来自刚刚那条两国之间的直线。
05:02
Let me give you an example.
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我来举个例子。
05:05
A few months ago, I was touring
the manufacturing plant
the manufacturing plant
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几个月前，我参观了位于
墨西哥克雷塔罗州的
墨西哥克雷塔罗州的
05:09
of a multinational aerospace company
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一家跨国航空公司的
05:12
in Querétaro, Mexico,
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制造厂。
05:14
and the VP of logistics points out
a completed tail assembly.
a completed tail assembly.
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负责物流的副总裁
给我们看了一个组装完毕的机尾。
给我们看了一个组装完毕的机尾。
05:19
It turns out the tail assemblies
are assembled from panels
are assembled from panels
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这个组装完毕的机尾，所用的金属板
05:23
that are manufactured in France,
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是在法国生产，
05:26
and they're assembled in Mexico
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在墨西哥组装，
05:28
using components imported from the US.
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使用的零件进口自美国。
05:32
When those tail assemblies are done,
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当这些机尾组装完毕后，
05:34
they're exported via truck to Canada
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会通过卡车运输出口到加拿大，
05:36
to their primary assembly plant
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那里有他们的主装配工厂，
05:38
where they come together
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成千上万的其他零件
05:40
with thousands of other parts,
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在那里被组装到一起，
05:42
like the wings and the seats
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像机翼，座位，
05:44
and the little shades
over the little windows,
over the little windows,
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窗户上的遮光板，
05:47
all coming in to become
a part of a new airplane.
a part of a new airplane.
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都汇集于此，成为
一架新飞机的一部分。
一架新飞机的一部分。
05:51
Think about it.
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想象一下，
05:53
These new airplanes,
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这些新飞机，
05:54
before they even take their first flight,
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在它们首飞之前，
05:57
they have more stamps in their passports
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护照上盖的章
05:59
than Angelina Jolie.
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已经比安吉丽娜·朱莉的还要多。
06:02
Now, this approach to processing
goes on all around the world
goes on all around the world
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这样的情况在世界各地越来越多，
06:06
to manufacture many of the products
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生产我们日常所需的
06:08
we use every day,
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许多产品，
06:11
from skin cream to airplanes.
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从润肤霜到飞机。
06:14
When you go home tonight,
take a look in your house.
take a look in your house.
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今晚你们回家后，四处看看。
06:17
You might be surprised to find
a label that looks like this one:
a label that looks like this one:
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你可能会惊奇地找到
一个这样的标签：
一个这样的标签：
06:22
"Manufactured in the USA
from US and foreign parts."
from US and foreign parts."
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“美国生产，零件来自
美国和其他国家。”
美国和其他国家。”
06:27
Economist Michael Porter
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经济学家麦克·波特
06:29
described what's going on here best.
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对此有着最为精辟的描述。
06:31
Many decades ago, he said
that it's most beneficial for a country
that it's most beneficial for a country
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在几十年前，他就指出，
对一个国家而言最有利的做法，
对一个国家而言最有利的做法，
06:36
to focus on producing the products
it can produce most efficiently
it can produce most efficiently
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就是专注于生产
自己生产率最高的产品，
自己生产率最高的产品，
06:41
and trading for the rest.
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然后通过贸易来获得其他产品。
06:44
So what he's talking about here
is shared production,
is shared production,
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他所说的就是协同生产，
06:47
and efficiency is the name of the game.
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而效率是其中最关键的一点。
06:50
You've probably seen an example of this
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大家很可能见过这样的例子，
06:53
at home or at work.
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无论在家还是在工作中。
06:55
Let's take a look at an example.
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让我们来看一个例子。
06:57
Think about how your house was built
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想想你们家房子是怎么盖起来的
07:00
or your kitchen renovated.
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或者厨房是怎么翻新的。
07:02
Typically, there's a general contractor
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一般来说，会有一个总承包商
07:05
who is responsible
for coordinating the efforts
for coordinating the efforts
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他会负责协调
07:07
of all the different contractors:
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不同承包商的工作：
07:08
an architect to draw the plans,
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设计师绘制图纸，
07:11
an earth-moving company
to dig the foundation,
to dig the foundation,
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基建公司挖好地基，
07:14
a plumber, a carpenter and so on.
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还有水管工、木匠等等。
07:17
So why doesn't the general contractor
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那为什么这个总承包商
07:18
pick just one company
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不会只选择一家公司
07:21
to do all the work,
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来完成所有的工作呢，
07:22
like, say, the architect?
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比如说，只找设计师？
07:24
Because this is silly.
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因为这么做很傻。
07:26
The general contractor selects experts
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总承包商会选择专业人士，
07:29
because it takes years
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因为学习和专精
07:30
to learn and master
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盖房子和翻新厨房的
07:32
how to do each of the tasks it takes
to build a house or renovate a kitchen,
to build a house or renovate a kitchen,
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某一个领域都需要花费数年的时间，
07:36
some of them requiring special training.
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有些甚至需要专业的训练。
07:40
Think about it:
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试想一下，
07:41
Would you want your architect
to install your toilet?
to install your toilet?
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你会愿意让设计师来帮你安装马桶吗？
07:45
Of course not.
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当然不会。
07:46
So let's apply this process
to the corporate world.
to the corporate world.
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将这一过程引申到
企业的领域也是一样。
企业的领域也是一样。
07:50
Companies today focus on manufacturing
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当今企业都专注于生产
07:52
what they produce best
and most efficiently,
and most efficiently,
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他们质量最高、效率最高的产品，
07:56
and they trade for everything else.
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然后通过贸易获得其他产品。
07:58
So this means they rely
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这就意味着企业都高度依赖
08:01
on a global, interconnected,
interdependent network of manufacturers
interdependent network of manufacturers
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一个全球化的、紧密联系的、
相互依赖的制造商网络
相互依赖的制造商网络
08:06
to produce these products.
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来生产产品。
08:07
In fact, that network is so interconnected
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这个网络的联系是如此紧密，
08:09
it's almost impossible
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几乎不太可能
08:12
to dismantle and produce
products in just one country.
products in just one country.
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将其拆开，在一个国家
生产所有的产品。
生产所有的产品。
08:16
Let's take a look
at the interconnected web
at the interconnected web
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我们来回顾一下刚刚看到的
08:18
we saw a few moments ago,
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紧密联系的网络，
08:20
and let's focus on just one strand
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我们只看其中一条线，
08:22
between the US and Mexico.
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美国和墨西哥之间的那一条。
08:26
The Wilson Institute says
that shared production represents
that shared production represents
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威尔逊学院的数据显示，
美国和墨西哥的
美国和墨西哥的
08:29
40 percent of the half a trillion dollars
in trade between the US and Mexico.
in trade between the US and Mexico.
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贸易额为5000亿美元，
其中40%是协同生产。
其中40%是协同生产。
08:35
That's about 200 billion dollars,
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差不多是2000亿美元，
08:37
or the same as the GDP for Portugal.
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相当于葡萄牙全国的GDP。
08:41
So let's just imagine
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假设一下，
08:44
that the US decides to impose
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如果美国决定
08:47
a 20 percent border tax
on all imports from Mexico.
on all imports from Mexico.
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对所有进口自墨西哥的产品
征20%的国境税。
征20%的国境税。
08:51
OK, fine.
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没问题。
08:53
But do you think Mexico is just
going to stand by and let that happen?
going to stand by and let that happen?
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但是你们觉得墨西哥会欣然接受吗？
08:58
No. No way.
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不可能的。
作为回应，他们也会征收相似的税率，
08:59
So in retaliation,
they impose a similar tax
they impose a similar tax
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09:02
on all goods being imported from the US,
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针对所有进口自美国的产品，
09:06
and a little game of tit-for-tat ensues,
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就这样你来我往，
09:10
and 20 percent -- just imagine
that 20 percent duties
that 20 percent duties
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想象一下这20%的税
09:13
are added to every good,
product, product component
product, product component
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被加到所有的货物，产品及其部件，
09:17
crossing back and forth across the border,
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只要过境就会被征收，
09:19
and you could be looking at more
than a 40 percent increase in duties,
than a 40 percent increase in duties,
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这样一来税率的增加就会大于40%，
或者说800亿美元。
09:23
or 80 billion dollars.
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09:25
Now, don't kid yourself,
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不要天真了，
09:27
these costs are going to be passed along
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这些费用的增加一定会被摊到
09:29
to you and to me.
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你我身上。
09:33
Now, let's think about what impact
that might have on some of the products,
that might have on some of the products,
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我们来看一下这会对商品
产生什么样的影响，
产生什么样的影响，
09:39
or the prices of the products,
that we buy every day.
that we buy every day.
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或者说对我们日常用品的价格
会产生什么影响。
会产生什么影响。
09:42
So if a 30 percent increase in duties
were actually passed along,
were actually passed along,
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如果税率增加30%，
09:47
we would be looking at some
pretty important increases in prices.
pretty important increases in prices.
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我们会看到明显的价格上涨。
09:51
A Lincoln MKZ would go
from 37,000 dollars to 48,000.
from 37,000 dollars to 48,000.
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一辆林肯MKZ会从
37000美元上涨到48000美元。
37000美元上涨到48000美元。
09:56
And the price of a Sharp 60-inch HDTV
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一台60寸的夏普高清电视的价格
10:00
would go from 898 dollars
to 1,167 dollars.
to 1,167 dollars.
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会从898美元上涨到1167美元。
10:06
And the price of a 16-ounce jar
of CVS skin moisturizer
of CVS skin moisturizer
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一罐454克的CVS润肤霜价格
10:10
would go from 13 dollars to 17 dollars.
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会从13美元上涨到17美元。
10:14
Now, remember, this is only looking
at one strand of the production chain
at one strand of the production chain
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提醒一下，这还仅仅只是
美国和墨西哥之间，
美国和墨西哥之间，
10:19
between the US and Mexico,
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只是产品网络中的一条线，
10:21
so multiply this out
across all of the strands.
across all of the strands.
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如果把所有的线都叠加起来。
10:24
The impact could be considerable.
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产生的影响就会相当大了。
10:26
Now, just think about this:
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试想一下，
10:28
even if we were able
to dismantle this network
to dismantle this network
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即使我们能够将整个网络分解，
10:33
and produce products in just one country,
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在一个国家生产所有的产品，
10:36
which by the way is easier said than done,
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当然，这操作起来很难，
10:39
we would still only
be saving or protecting
be saving or protecting
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我们也仅仅能够保住
10:42
one out of 10 lost manufacturing jobs.
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10个制造业岗位中的1个。
10:45
That's right, because remember,
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没错，因为请记住，
10:49
most of those jobs, 87 percent,
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大部分的工作岗位，高达87%，
10:52
were lost due to improvements
in our own productivity.
in our own productivity.
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是因为我们生产率的提高而流失。
10:55
And unfortunately,
those jobs, they're gone for good.
those jobs, they're gone for good.
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而且遗憾的是，
这些工作岗位再也找不回来了。
这些工作岗位再也找不回来了。
11:00
So the real question is,
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现在问题来了，
11:02
does it make sense for us
to drive up prices
to drive up prices
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我们让价格上涨，
11:04
to the point where many of us can't afford
the basic goods we use every day
the basic goods we use every day
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直到大部分人都买不起基本生活用品，
而目的仅仅为了保住一个工作岗位，
而目的仅仅为了保住一个工作岗位，
11:11
for the purpose of saving a job
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而这个工作岗位在几年后
11:13
that might be eliminated
in a couple of years anyway?
in a couple of years anyway?
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又肯定会失去，
那么这件事到底有没有意义？
那么这件事到底有没有意义？
11:18
The reality is that shared production
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现实就是，协同生产
11:20
allows us to manufacture
higher quality products
higher quality products
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可以让我们以很低的成本
11:23
at lower costs.
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生产高质量的产品。
11:25
It's that simple.
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就这么简单。
11:26
It allows us to get more
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这样可以让我们
充分利用有限的资源和专业技能
11:28
out of the limited resources
and expertise we have
and expertise we have
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11:31
and at the same time
benefit from lower prices.
benefit from lower prices.
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同时通过较低的价格获利。
11:35
It's really important to remember
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对于协同生产而言，
11:37
that for shared production
to be effective,
to be effective,
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很重要的一点就是，
11:40
it relies on efficient cross-border
movement of raw materials,
movement of raw materials,
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它依赖于对原料、零件和制成品
11:45
components and finished products.
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高效的跨境运输。
11:48
So remember this:
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请大家记住，
11:51
the next time you're hearing somebody
try to sell you on the idea
try to sell you on the idea
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下次你们要是再遇到有人宣扬
11:55
that protectionism is a good deal,
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贸易保护主义是一件好事，
11:58
it's just not.
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千万别再被忽悠了。
12:00
Thank you.
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谢谢大家。
12:01
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Augie Picado - Border specialistAugie Picado is the country manager for UPS Mexico.
Why you should listen
By leading strategy and operations for UPS across Mexico, Augie Picado has developed a nuanced familiarity with the day to day of cross-border trade. Prior to this position, Picado led various aspects of UPS's marketing strategy. Recent positions include vice president of marketing for the Americas region and the senior director of marketing development in Atlanta. He began his career with the company in 1985 as a loader in New Jersey.
Picado earned his BA from Montclair State University and his MBA from Fairleigh Dickinson University, both in New Jersey. He also earned a masters certificate in project management from George Washington University in Washington, D.C.
Augie Picado | Speaker | TED.com