TED2005
Thomas Barnett: Let's rethink America's military strategy
Thomas Barnett的世界和平新方案
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在这次令人振奋且朴实的演讲中，国际安全战略家Thomas Barnett将概述自己为正在走下坡路的美军寻找到的冷战后的世界和平方案。他朴实的理论既符合实际又激动人心，简单地讲就是将世界“一分为二”。
Thomas Barnett - Military strategist
Strategic planner Thomas Barnett has advised US leaders on national security since the end of the Cold War. His bold ideas about the future of warfare and the military are spelled out in his best-selling book The Pentagon's New Map. Full bio
Strategic planner Thomas Barnett has advised US leaders on national security since the end of the Cold War. His bold ideas about the future of warfare and the military are spelled out in his best-selling book The Pentagon's New Map. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:26
I get asked a lot what the difference between my work is
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很多人问我，我的工作
00:28
and typical Pentagon long-range strategic planners.
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与一位典型的五角大楼长期战略计划者的工作有什么区别
00:32
And the answer I like to offer is
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我给他们的答案是
00:33
what they typically do is they think about the future of wars
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那些计划者们总是在战争的大背景下
00:36
in the context of war.
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思考战争的未来
00:38
And what I've spent 15 years doing in this business --
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而我花费了15年时间所做的事情
00:41
and it's taken me almost 14 to figure it out --
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——其实我花了14年才搞清楚我到底在做什么——
00:43
is I think about the future of wars in the context of everything else.
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是我却是在非战争的大背景下思考战争的未来
00:48
So I tend to specialize on the scene between war and peace.
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所以我倾向于关注那些介于战争和和平之间的事情
00:52
The material I'm going to show you is one idea from a book
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我要向大家介绍的是一本书中的一个观点
00:55
with a lot of ideas.
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呃~不是一个，而是好几个观点
00:56
It's the one that takes me around the world right now
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正是为此我才周游世界
00:58
interacting with foreign militaries quite a bit.
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与各国军方交流
01:01
The material was generated in two years of work I did
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这些观点都是基于我这两年来
01:03
for the Secretary of Defense,
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为美国国防部所做的工作
01:04
thinking about a new national grand strategy
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——为美国
01:07
for the United States.
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寻找一个新的国家整体战略
01:09
I'm going to present a problem
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我想给大家提出一个问题
01:10
and try to give you an answer.
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看看您怎么回答
01:13
Here's my favorite bonehead concept from the 1990s in the Pentagon:
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以下是自上世纪90年代以来我最喜欢的“五角大楼的愚蠢概念”
01:17
the theory of anti-access, area-denial asymmetrical strategies.
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——反介入、区域封锁的非对称战略理论
01:21
Why do we call it that?
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为什么我们给它起了这么一个名字呢？
01:22
Because it's got all those A's lined up I guess.
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我猜这是因为它所有的单词开头都是A
01:30
This is gobbledygook for
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带官腔的文章都这样
01:32
if the United States fights somebody we're going to be huge.
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如果美国要打谁，那么我们美国必是巨大的
01:35
They're going to be small.
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则对方必是渺小的
01:36
And if they try to fight us in the traditional, straight-up manner
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如果对方要以传统的直接的方式开战的话
01:38
we're going to kick their ass,
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我们必能将其揍扁
01:39
which is why people don't try to do that any more.
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正因为如此，他们才不会以那样传统的方式向美国开战
01:42
I met the last Air Force General who had actually
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我遇到过一个当过空军将军的家伙
01:45
shot down an enemy plane in combat.
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他曾经在战斗中击落过敌人的飞机
01:47
He's now a one star General.
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而他现在是一个一星上将
01:49
That's how distant we are from even meeting an air force
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而自上次我们发现一个愿意与美国空军部队进行空战的敌人
01:53
willing to fly against ours.
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竟然已经是那么久远的事情
01:55
So that overmatched capability creates problems --
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因此，这种压倒对手的能力引起了许多问题
01:58
catastrophic successes the White House calls them.
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——而白宫称之为“灾难性的成功”
02:01
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
02:04
And we're trying to figure that out,
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我们正努力搞懂它
02:06
because it is an amazing capability.
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因为这是一种令人惊奇的能力
02:08
The question is, what's the good you can do with it?
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问题是，你能用它做什么呢？
02:11
OK?
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对么？
02:13
The theory of anti-access, area-denial asymmetrical strategies --
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反介入、区域封锁的非对称战略理论——
02:17
gobbledygook that we sell to Congress,
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我们卖给国会的官样文章
02:19
because if we just told them we can kick anybody's asses
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因为如果我们直接告诉议员们我们能揍扁敌人
02:22
they wouldn't buy us all the stuff we want.
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议员们是不会给我们买我们所需要的东西的
02:24
So we say, area-denial, anti-access asymmetrical strategies
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所以我们将其称之为反介入、区域封锁的非对称战略理论
02:28
and their eyes glaze over.
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他们一听，立刻就呆掉了
02:30
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
02:33
And they say, "Will you build it in my district?"
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然后他们会问：“你会不会在我所在的区部署一个“？
02:36
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
02:38
(Applause)
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（掌声）
02:42
Here's my parody and it ain't much of one.
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下面我将举一个例子
02:43
Let's talk about a battle space.
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让我们聊一个“战斗区域”
02:44
I don't know, Taiwan Straits 2025.
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我也不懂，台湾海峡2025
02:46
Let's talk about an enemy embedded within that battle space.
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让我们先谈一个在此战斗区域中的敌人
02:49
I don't know, the Million Man Swim.
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呃~~比如一百万个在海峡中游泳的人
02:51
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
02:54
The United States has to access that battle space instantaneously.
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美国必须立刻进入该区域
02:57
They throw up anti-access, area-denial asymmetrical strategies.
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于是使用了反介入、区域封锁的非对称战略理论
03:01
A banana peel on the tarmac.
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而停机坪上出现了一个香蕉皮~
03:03
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
03:04
Trojan horses on our computer networks
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我们电脑网络中的特洛伊木马
03:06
reveal all our Achilles' heels instantly.
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立刻告诉敌人我们的致命弱点在何处
03:09
We say, "China, it's yours."
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我们说，这木马是中国的
03:11
Prometheus approach, largely a geographic definition,
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主要从地理定义上来说，是普罗米修斯的方法
03:14
focuses almost exclusively on the start of conflict.
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几乎完全集中在冲突的初期
03:16
We field the first-half team in a league
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我们在联赛的上半段领先
03:18
that insists on keeping score until the end of the game.
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保持这个分数，直到比赛结束
03:21
That's the problem.
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这就是问题所在
03:23
We can run the score up against anybody,
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我们能迅速得分超过任何人
03:25
and then get our asses kicked in the second half --
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然后再后半段的比赛中比人家揍扁
03:27
what they call fourth generation warfare.
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他们称之为第四代战争
03:30
Here's the way I like to describe it instead.
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下面我要描述一下第四代战争
03:32
There is no battle space the U.S. Military cannot access.
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目前，没有美军不能进入的战斗区域
03:35
They said we couldn't do Afghanistan. We did it with ease.
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有人说我们不能进入阿富汗，而我们却轻易地做到了
03:37
They said we couldn't do Iraq.
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有人说我们不能进入伊拉克
03:39
We did it with 150 combat casualties in six weeks.
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我们也做到了，而且代价是六周内只有150个战斗伤员
03:43
We did it so fast we weren't prepared for their collapse.
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我们进入的速度如此之快，以至于我们都还没有对伊拉克的垮台做好准备
03:47
There is nobody we can't take down.
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世上没有我们打不垮的敌人
03:50
The question is, what do you do with the power?
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而问题是，我们怎么使用这样的能力
03:52
So there's no trouble accessing battle spaces.
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因此，在进入战斗区域方面，我们是不存在问题的
03:54
What we have trouble accessing is the transition space
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事实上，我们无法顺利进入的
03:57
that must naturally follow,
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是随之而来的“过渡区域”
03:59
and creating the peace space that allows us to move on.
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并创造允许我们继续前进的“和平区域”
04:03
Problem is, the Defense Department over here
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问题是，管理此处的国防部门
04:05
beats the hell out of you.
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他妈的把人家赶出去了
04:08
The State Department over here says,
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然后管理此处的国务院人员却对人家说
04:09
"Come on boy, I know you can make it."
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”来吧伙计，我知道你能行“
04:12
And that poor country runs off that ledge,
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然后那个可怜的国家就逃掉了
04:14
does that cartoon thing and then drops.
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做一些卡通一样的蠢事然后垮掉了
04:16
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
04:22
This is not about overwhelming force, but proportional force.
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我们的确拥有压倒性的武力，不应盲目地全部使用
04:24
It's about non-lethal technologies,
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有些事情是于致命性武器无关的
04:26
because if you fire real ammo into a crowd
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因为如果你对一群参与暴乱的妇女和儿童
04:29
of women and children rioting
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开火的话
04:32
you're going to lose friends very quickly.
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你会很快失去你的朋友
04:34
This is not about projecting power, but about staying power,
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这与启用武力无关，问题在于如何克制使用武力
04:36
which is about legitimacy with the locals.
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关系到合法性的问题
04:39
Who do you access in this transition space?
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你应该派谁进入这种过渡区域呢？
04:41
You have to create internal partners. You have to access coalition partners.
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你必须创造内部的合作伙伴，必须拥有同盟
04:44
We asked the Indians for 17,000 peace keepers.
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我们请17000个印度人来当和平卫士
04:47
I know their senior leadership, they wanted to give it to us.
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我认识他们的高层领导人，他们愿意派人给我们
04:50
But they said to us, "You know what?
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但是他们说，你知道么？
04:52
In that transition space you're mostly hat not enough cattle.
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在那个过渡区域你的人手还不够
04:56
We don't think you can pull it off,
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我们觉得你还是完不成
04:57
we're not going to give you our 17,000 peace keepers for fodder."
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所以我们不会给我们的17000人去浪费
04:59
We asked the Russians for 40,000.
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我们问俄国要40000人
05:02
They said no.
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他们不给
05:03
I was in China in August, I said,
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我说过，八月份的时候我在中国
05:04
"You should have 50,000 peace keepers in Iraq.
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“你们应该派50000人去伊拉克维和
05:07
It's your oil, not ours."
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因为那是你的石油，不是我的石油”
05:10
Which is the truth. It's their oil.
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事实上，那确实是他们的石油
05:12
And the Chinese said to me, "Dr. Barnett, you're absolutely right.
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然后那个中国人告诉我，“Barnett先生，你完全正确
05:15
In a perfect world we'd have 50,000 there.
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如果世界是完美的，我们愿意派50000人过去
05:18
But it's not a perfect world,
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但是现在，世界是不完美的
05:20
and your administration isn't getting us any closer."
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而你们美国人在那里的管理也没有让我们更接近完美世界”
05:24
But we have trouble accessing our outcomes.
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我们在获取成果上也存在问题
05:27
We lucked out, frankly, on the selection.
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坦白讲，我们在选举上的胜利是都是凭借运气
05:29
We face different opponents across these three.
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我们面对着这三方的敌人
05:32
And it's time to start admitting
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是时候开始承认
05:33
you can't ask the same 19-year-old to do it all, day in and day out.
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你不能要求同样是19岁的人来做所有的事情，过一天算一天
05:37
It's just too damn hard.
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这他妈的太难了
05:39
We have an unparalleled capacity to wage war.
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我们拥有一种不平衡的发动战争的能力
05:43
We don't do the everything else so well.
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但我们对非战争的事情却处理不好
05:46
Frankly, we do it better than anybody and we still suck at it.
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坦白说，我们已经比其他任何人做的都要好了，但我们仍然举步维艰
05:48
We have a brilliant Secretary of War.
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我们有一个出色的“战争部长”
05:50
We don't have a Secretary of Everything Else.
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我们却没有一个“非战争事务部长”
05:53
Because if we did, that guy would be in front of the Senate,
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因为如果我们有，那个家伙就会成为出色的议员
05:55
still testifying over Abu Ghraib.
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继续审查伊拉克美军虐囚事件
05:58
The problem is he doesn't exist.
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问题是这个人并不存在
06:01
There is no Secretary of Everything Else.
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没有所谓的“非战争事务部长”
06:04
I think we have an unparalleled capacity to wage war.
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我认为我们拥有一种不平衡的发动战争的能力
06:07
I call that the Leviathan Force.
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我称之为“巨轮之力”
06:09
What we need to build is a force for the Everything Else.
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而我们需要打造一种能力，是处理非战争事务的能力
06:11
I call them the System Administrators.
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我称之为”系统监管“
06:13
What I think this really represents
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我认为，这说明了我们缺乏一套详细的规则
06:15
is lack of an A to Z rule set for the world as a whole
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来处理政治破产的国家
06:17
for processing politically bankrupt states.
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使这个世界成为一个整体
06:19
We have one for processing economically bankrupt states.
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我们有处理经济破产的国家的规则
06:22
It's the IMF Sovereign Bankruptcy Plan, OK?
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就是”国际货币基金组织主权破产计划“，对么？
06:26
We argue about it every time we use it.
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每次使用它时，我们总在争论
06:28
Argentina just went through it, broke a lot of rules.
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阿根廷正在实行，打破了许多规则
06:30
They got out on the far end, we said, "Fine, don't worry about it."
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他们快完了，我们说，无所谓啦，不要担心它
06:33
It's transparent. A certain amount of certainty
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它是透明的、总量确定的
06:36
gives the sense of a non-zero outcome.
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给我们的感觉，总归多多少少是有产出的
06:38
We don't have one for processing politically bankrupt states
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而当政治破产的时候呢？
06:40
that, frankly, everybody wants gone.
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坦白讲，每个人都想逃离
06:43
Like Saddam, like Mugabe, like Kim Jong-Il --
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例如萨达姆，例如穆加贝，例如金正日——
06:47
people who kill in hundreds of thousands or millions.
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那些杀害成百上千人的家伙
06:51
Like the 250,000 dead so far in Sudan.
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例如目前在苏丹已经有250000人受害
06:55
What would an A to Z system look like?
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这个监管系统该是什么样的呢？
06:57
I'm going to distinguish between what I call
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下面我将区分一下我刚刚所讲的
06:59
front half and back half.
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上半场和下半场
07:02
And let's call this red line, I don't know, mission accomplished.
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我称之为红线，或者说，”完成了的任务“
07:06
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
07:09
(Applause)
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（掌声）
07:13
What we have extant right now,
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目前在这个监管系统中，我们已经拥有的
07:15
at the beginning of this system, is the U.N. Security Council as a grand jury.
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是联合国安理会，它可以作为一个大陪审团
07:17
What can they do?
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他们能做什么呢？
07:18
They can indict your ass.
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他们能起诉你
07:22
They can debate it. They can write it on a piece of paper.
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他们会讨论你问题，然后写下来
07:24
They can put it in an envelope and mail it to you,
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装到信封里寄给你
07:26
and then say in no uncertain terms, "Please cut that out."
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然后说义正言辞地说，请不要这样做
07:31
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
07:36
That gets you about four million dead in Central Africa over the 1990s.
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因为它的存在，让上世纪90年代的非洲中部死亡了大约4000000人
07:39
That gets you 250,000 dead in the Sudan in the last 15 months.
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因为它的存在，过去的15个月中苏丹死亡了250000人
07:44
Everybody's got to answer their grandchildren some day
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有一天每个人都要告诉他们的子孙
07:45
what you did about the holocaust in Africa,
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你在非洲大屠杀中担任了什么角色
07:48
and you better have an answer.
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到时你最好能答得出来
07:53
We don't have anything to translate that will into action.
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我们无法将那种意愿转化为行动
07:57
What we do have is the U.S.-enabled Leviathan Force that says,
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我们所有的就是美国具有的”巨轮之力“，他说
08:00
"You want me to take that guy down? I'll take that guy down.
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”你要我打倒谁，我就会打到谁
08:03
I'll do it on Tuesday. It will cost you 20 billion dollars."
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我周二就能打到他，那会花费你200亿美元“
08:06
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
08:11
But here's the deal.
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但是立刻就能成交了
08:13
As soon as I can't find anybody else to air out,
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只要我们找不到任何其他人来
08:15
I leave the scene immediately.
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我就立即离开
08:17
That's called the Powell Doctrine.
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这叫做”鲍威尔主义“
08:21
Way downstream we have the International Criminal Court.
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然后我们有国际刑事法庭
08:23
They love to put them on trial. They've got Milosevic right now.
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他们喜欢审判罪犯，他们现在已经有了米洛舍维奇了
08:25
What are we missing?
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我们还缺什么？
08:27
A functioning executive that will translate will into action,
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一个能发挥作用、将意愿转化为行动的行政力量
08:30
because we don't have it.
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因为我们还没有
08:32
Every time we lead one of these efforts
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每次我们作为领导力量去做点什么
08:34
we have to whip ourselves into this imminent threat thing.
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我们都会为自己制造一种迫在眉睫的巨大威胁
08:38
We haven't faced an imminent threat since
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自从1962年的古巴导弹危机以来
08:40
the Cuban missile crisis in 1962.
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其实我们再也没有面临过这种威胁了
08:42
But we use this language from a bygone era
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但我们总在使用一种过了时的语言
08:43
to scare ourselves into doing something
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自我恐吓地去做一些事情
08:46
because we're a democracy and that's what it takes.
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因为我们是一个民主的国家，就该当如此
08:48
And if that doesn't work we scream, "He's got a gun!"
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如果不能成功，我们就会尖叫，“对方有枪！”
08:50
just as we rush in.
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一边说着，我们一边急着往对方那里赶
08:52
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
09:00
And then we look over the body
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然后，我们搜查人家
09:01
and we find an old cigarette lighter and we say,
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我们发现了一个老式的打火机，我们就说
09:03
"Jesus, it was dark."
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“天哪，果真不是什么好人”
09:05
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
09:07
Do you want to do it, France?
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你想让法国也来这样做么？
09:09
France says, "No, but I do like to criticize you after the fact."
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法国说，“不，我不去，但是你做完了我会批评你”
09:14
What we need downstream is a great power enabled --
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我们接下来需要的，就是启动一种巨大的力量
09:17
what I call that Sys Admin Force.
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我们称之为“系统监督部队”
09:19
We should have had 250,000 troops streaming into Iraq
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我们应该派250000部队去伊拉克
09:21
on the heels of that Leviathan sweeping towards Baghdad.
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为前往巴格达的部队保驾护航
09:24
What do you get then?
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去了能起什么作用呢？
09:25
No looting, no military disappearing,
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没有掠夺，不再有军人失踪
09:27
no arms disappearing, no ammo disappearing,
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没有人再偷我们的武器军火
09:29
no Muqtada al-Sadr -- I'm wrecking his bones --
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也再没有萨德尔出现——我正在啃他的骨头——
09:31
no insurgency.
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也没有叛乱了
09:33
Talk to anybody who was over there in the first six months.
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在前半年的时间里，与在伊拉克的人交流
09:35
We had six months to feel the lob, to get the job done,
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我们就有六个月的时间去感受“高球”，去完成任务
09:38
and we dicked around for six months.
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我们花六个月的时间去熟悉它
09:40
And then they turned on us.
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然后他们就会站在我们这边了
09:42
Why? Because they just got fed up.
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为什么？因为他们只是被激怒了
09:44
They saw what we did to Saddam.
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他们看到了我们队萨达姆做了什么
09:46
They said, "You're that powerful, you can resurrect this country.
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他们说，“你们真棒，你们能能让这个国家复活
09:48
You're America."
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你们是美国”
09:50
What we need is an international reconstruction fund --
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我们需要的是一个国际重建基金
09:52
Sebastian Mallaby, Washington Post, great idea.
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塞巴斯蒂安马拉比，华盛顿邮报，都挺不错的
09:54
Model on the IMF.
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这都是如同国际货币基金组织一样的好例子
09:56
Instead of passing the hat each time, OK?
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我们不再需要每次从人们那里筹集善款了
09:59
Where are we going to find this guy? G20, that's easy.
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那我们从哪里找到钱呢？G20嘛，多简单啊
10:02
Check out their agenda since 9/11.
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看一下911事件后他们的日程表
10:04
All security dominated.
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全都在关心安全问题
10:06
They're going to decide up front how the money gets spent
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他们会提前决定要花多少钱
10:08
just like in the IMF.
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就像国际货币基金组织一样
10:09
You vote according to how much money you put in the kitty.
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你再根据你下注的钱数来进行投票
10:13
Here's my challenge to the Defense Department.
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这是我对国防部门的建议
10:14
You've got to build this force. You've got to seed this force.
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你要建立这支部队，你要供养这支部队
10:17
You've got to track coalition partners. Create a record of success.
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你要跟踪联合部队，创造一个新的成功记录
10:20
You will get this model.
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你会成功的
10:22
You tell me it's too hard to do.
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你告诉我这很难
10:24
I'll walk this dog right through that six part series on the Balkans.
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那为什么我们就在巴尔干半岛做到了呢？
10:28
We did it just like that.
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我就是照这样做的
10:30
I'm talking about regularizing it, making it transparent.
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我们现在需要的就是将其规范化，透明化
10:32
Would you like Mugabe gone?
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你要除掉穆加贝么？
10:34
Would you like Kim Jong-Il, who's killed about two million people,
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你要除掉杀害了大约2百万人的金正日么？
10:36
would you like him gone?
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要么？
10:39
Would you like a better system?
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你喜欢一个更好的系统么？
10:42
This is why it matters to the military.
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这就是为什么它这么重要
10:44
They've been experiencing an identity crisis since the end of the Cold War.
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从冷战末期他们就经历着身份危机
10:48
I'm not talking about the difference between reality and desire,
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我现在不是在讲现实与期望的差别
10:51
which I can do because I'm not inside the beltway.
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虽然真的能讲清楚，因为我不在华盛顿
10:53
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
10:56
I'm talking about the 1990s.
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说说上世纪90年代
10:57
The Berlin Wall falls. We do Desert Storm.
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柏林墙倒了，我们完成了沙漠风暴
11:00
The split starts to emerge between those in the military
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军队中那些看到美好未来的人
11:02
who see a future they can live with,
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还有那些看到一种令他们惊恐的未来的人
11:04
and those who see a future that starts to scare them,
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他们之间的裂痕开始愈合
11:06
like the U.S. submarine community,
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就像美军潜水艇部队
11:08
which watches the Soviet Navy disappear overnight.
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目睹了苏联海军的一夜消失
11:10
Ah!
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哈
11:12
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
11:14
So they start moving from reality towards desire
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因此他们开始从现实走向理想
11:18
and they create their own special language
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他们创造了特殊的语言
11:20
to describe their voyage of self-discovery and self-actualization.
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来描述这段自我发现、自我实现的旅程
11:23
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
11:26
The problem is you need a big, sexy opponent to fight against.
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问题是，你需要一个强大而又性感的对手
11:28
And if you can't find one you've got to make one up.
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如果你找不到，你就需要自己造一个
11:30
China, all grown up, going to be a looker!
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中国，或所有成长起来的国家，都是不错的对象
11:33
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
11:37
The rest of the military got dragged down into the muck
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整个上世纪90年代
11:39
across the 1990s
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其余的部队都被拖到垃圾堆里去了
11:40
and they developed this very derisive term to describe it:
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他们提出了这种非常自嘲的说法
11:42
military operations other than war.
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叫“非战争军事行动”
11:45
I ask you, who joins the military to do things other than war?
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我问你，谁会只为了非战争军事行动而参军？
11:47
Actually, most of them.
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事实上，大多数军人都是如此
11:50
Jessica Lynch never planned on shooting back.
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Jessica Lynch（从伊拉克战场被俘后归国的女战斗英雄）从没想过要开枪回击敌人
11:53
Most of them don't pick up a rifle.
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大多数人都没摸过枪
11:57
I maintain this is code inside the Army for,
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我坚持认为这是军队内部的法则
11:59
"We don't want to do this."
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因为我们不想这么做
12:03
They spent the 1990s working the messy scene
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军方在上世纪90年代一直在试图解决这件事
12:05
between globalized parts of the world
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尤其是在世界上的美军可触及的各个角落
12:07
What I call the core and the gap.
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我称之为核心的差距
12:12
The Clinton administration wasn't interested in running this.
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克林顿政府可不喜欢这样
12:14
For eight years, after screwing up the relationship on day one --
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整整八年，在他上任的第一天起就犯下了这个错误
12:16
inauguration day with gays in the military --
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与存在同性恋的军队站在一起，进行他的就职演说
12:19
which was deft.
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而且相当敏捷灵巧
12:21
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
12:23
So we were home alone for eight years.
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所以我们在家里孤独了八年之久
12:25
And what did we do home alone?
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我们在这八年中做了什么呢？
12:27
We bought one military and we operated another.
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我们养着一支部队，然后派另一支去打仗
12:29
It's like the guy who goes to the doctor and says,
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就像一个人到医生面前，说：
12:31
"Doctor, it hurts when I do this."
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“医生，当我这样做的时候，我很疼”
12:34
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
12:37
The doctor says, "Stop doing that you idiot."
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医生说：“笨蛋，那你就别再那样做不就行了？”
12:40
I used to give this brief inside the Pentagon in the early 1990s.
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我在90年代初期一直给五角大楼这个建议
12:42
I'd say, "You're buying one military and you're operating another,
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我说：“你们现在正在养着一支部队，却派另一支去打仗
12:44
and eventually it's going to hurt. It's wrong.
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最后这会让我们都很痛，这样做事是错误的
12:46
Bad Pentagon, bad!"
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五角大楼那些坏蛋，坏蛋！”
12:48
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
12:50
And they'd say, "Dr. Barnett, you are so right.
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然后他们说：“Barnett博士，你很正确
12:52
Can you come back next year and remind us again?"
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请明年再来，然后再提醒我们一次好么？”
12:54
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
13:00
Some people say 9/11 heals the rift --
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有人说911解决了这个问题
13:02
jerks the long-term transformation gurus
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他们认为911让那些所谓的专家
13:05
out of their 30,000 foot view of history,
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丢开了三万英尺高的历史观
13:07
drags them down in to the muck and says, "You want a networked opponent?
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让他们滚到一边，然后说，你想要一个网络化了的对手？
13:09
I've got one, he's everywhere, go find him."
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我就有一个，他无处不在，去把他找出来
13:12
It elevates MOOTW -- how we pronounce that acronym --
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然后我们就有了MOOTW（非战争军事行动）——我们就是这样读它的缩写——
13:15
from crap to grand strategy,
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从废话中提炼出了伟大的战略
13:18
because that's how you're going to shrink that gap.
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因为那是你准备缩小差距的方式
13:20
Some people put these two things together
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有些人把这两件事归到一起
13:21
and they call it empire, which I think is a boneheaded concept.
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称之为绝对权力，我觉得这是一派胡言
13:24
Empire is about the enforcement of not just minimal rule sets,
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据对权力是强制性的，而不只是你所做不到的
13:26
which you cannot do,
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最小规则集
13:28
but maximum rule sets which you must do.
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但是那些你所必须去做的最大规则集
13:30
It's not our system of governance.
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却不属于你所能监管的系统
13:32
Never how we've sought to interact with the outside world.
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我们从来没有试图去与外界互动
13:34
I prefer that phrase System Administration.
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我更喜欢“系统监管”这个说法
13:36
We enforce the minimal rule sets
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我们执行最小规则集
13:38
for maintaining connectivity to the global economy.
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来维系与全球经济的联系
13:40
Certain bad things you cannot do.
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有些特定的事情你是坚决不能去做的
13:45
How this impacts the way we think about the future of war.
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如何影响到我们思考战争的未来的方式
13:47
This is a concept which gets me vilified throughout the Pentagon.
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这个概念让我被所有五角大楼的人都鄙视了一遍
13:50
It makes me very popular as well.
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同时它也让我现在如此的受欢迎
13:52
Everybody's got an opinion.
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人人都有自己的观点
13:54
Going back to the beginning of our country --
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回顾我们国家的历史初期
13:56
historically, defenses meant protection of the homeland.
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在历史上，国防意味着保卫家园
14:00
Security has meant everything else.
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安全高于一切
14:03
Written into our constitution,
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这是写进我们的宪法的
14:05
two different forces, two different functions.
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两种不同的力量，两种不同的功能
14:08
Raise an army when you need it,
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需要的时候，就养一支部队
14:10
and maintain a navy for day-to-day connectivity.
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需要海军就养一支海军
14:15
A Department of War, a Department of Everything Else.
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一个战争部门，一个战争之外的部门
14:19
A big stick, a baton stick.
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一个是大棒，另一个却是指挥棒
14:23
Can of whup ass,
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不但要把他们打倒
14:26
the networking force.
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而且要建立一个网络来进行系统监管
14:28
In 1947 we merged these two things together
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1947年国防部把这两件事情
14:30
in the Defense Department.
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融合到了一起
14:32
Our long-term rationale becomes,
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这就成为了我们的长期理论基础
14:34
we're involved in a hair trigger stand off with the Soviets.
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我们卷入了一种与苏联一触即发的境地
14:37
To attack America is to risk blowing up the world.
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进攻美国就是威胁全世界
14:40
We connected national security to international security
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我们将国家安全与世界安全联系起来
14:44
with about a seven minute time delay.
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其中只有七分钟的延时
14:48
That's not our problem now.
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现在那已经不是我们的问题了
14:50
They can kill three million in Chicago tomorrow
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明天他们就能在芝加哥杀死三百万人
14:52
and we don't go to the mattresses with nukes.
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而且我们没有核武器床垫
14:55
That's the scary part.
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那才是最可怕的
14:57
The question is how do we reconnect American national security
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问题是我们如何再次将美国的安全与世界的安全联系起来
15:01
with global security to make the world a lot more comfortable,
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让世界拥有安全保证，变得更美好
15:05
and to embed and contextualize our employment
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同时又让我们在全球的部队
15:08
of force around the planet?
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参与其中
15:13
What's happened since is that bifurcation I described.
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目前的情况，正是我所描述的一种
15:17
We talked about this going all the way back
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我们讨论了这种
15:18
to the end of the Cold War.
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退回到冷战末期的情况
15:20
Let's have a Department of War, and a Department of Something Else.
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我们需要一个战争部门，以及一个战争之外的部门
15:22
Some people say, "Hell, 9/11 did it for you."
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有人说，嘿，911已经为你完成了这个想法
15:26
Now we've got a home game and an away game.
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现在我们已经有了主场和客场之分
15:28
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
15:34
The Department of Homeland Security is a strategic feel good measure.
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建立本土安全部门是一个很好的战略方法
15:38
It's going to be the Department of Agriculture for the 21st century.
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它将成为21世纪的农业部门
15:42
TSA -- thousands standing around.
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TSA的意思就是成千上万人站在周围
15:45
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
15:52
Just be grateful Robert Reed didn't shove that bomb up his ass.
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感谢罗伯特里德没有将炸弹塞进屁股里
15:55
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
16:09
Because we'd all be gay then.
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因为我们那时都将是同性恋
16:12
I supported the war in Iraq.
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我支持伊拉克战争
16:14
He was a bad guy with multiple priors.
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他是个有着多重前科的坏人
16:16
It's not like we had to find him
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我们是不可能在他杀人的现场
16:18
actually killing somebody live to arrest him.
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找到并逮捕他的
16:23
I knew we'd kick ass in the war with the Leviathan Force.
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我早就知道我们在用“巨轮之力”来战斗
16:25
I knew we'd have a hard time with what followed.
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我早就知道之后我们会经历一段困难的时期
16:28
But I know this organization doesn't change until it experiences failure.
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但是我知道不经历失败，我们的组织是不会改变的
16:32
What do I mean by these two different forces?
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我提出这两种力量是为了说明什么呢？
16:35
This is the Hobbesian Force.
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这就是霍布斯的力量
16:37
I love this force. I don't want to see it go.
365
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我喜欢它，我不想没有它
16:39
That plus nukes rules out great power war.
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我不愿意只看到由核武器支配的大国战争
16:41
This is the military the rest of the world wants us to build.
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这才是世界需要我们建立的军事力量
16:43
It's why I travel all over the world talking to foreign militaries.
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这就是为什么我满世界地跑，去与各国军方交流
16:46
What does this mean?
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这意味着什么呢？
16:49
It means you've got to stop pretending
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意味着你不能再假装自己能都用同样的
16:51
you can do these two very disparate skill sets with the same 19-year-old.
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19岁左右的人来完成两件完全不同的事情
16:54
Switching back, morning, afternoon, evening,
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换回去，早、中、晚
16:57
morning, afternoon, evening.
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早、中、晚
16:59
Handing out aid, shooting back,
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给予援助，还击
17:01
handing out aid, shooting back.
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给予援助，还击
17:03
It's too much.
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太过分了
17:05
The 19-year-olds get tired from the switching, OK?
377
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那些19岁的家伙会累的好不好
17:08
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
17:10
That force on the left, you can train a 19-year-old to do that.
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对于左边的力量，你可以训练一群19岁的人去做
17:13
That force on the right is more like a 40-year-old cop.
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但右边的力量就必须要一群40岁左右的人去做了
17:16
You need the experience.
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你需要经验
17:19
What does this mean in terms of operations?
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那怎么行动呢？
17:23
The rule is going to be this.
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是这样的
17:26
That Sys Admin force is the force that never comes home,
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“系统监管”部队是从来不回家的部队
17:29
does most of your work.
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但去完成了大部分任务
17:31
You break out that Leviathan Force only every so often.
386
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你频繁地派出“巨轮之力”
17:34
But here's the promise you make to the American public,
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但是你要向美国民众保证
17:36
to your own people, to the world.
388
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向你的人民、向世界保证
17:38
You break out that Leviathan Force,
389
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你派出了军事力量
17:40
you promise, you guarantee that you're going to mount
390
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你保证，你会在随后
17:43
one hell of a -- immediately -- follow-on Sys Admin effort.
391
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立刻跟上“系统监管”
17:47
Don't plan for the war unless you plan to win the peace.
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只能在你真的要实现和平的时候，才能进行战争！
17:49
(Applause)
393
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（掌声）
17:55
Other differences. Leviathan
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另一个区别是军事力量
17:57
traditional partners, they all look like the Brits
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传统的伙伴，都像英国人
17:59
and their former colonies.
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以及他们的殖民地
18:01
(Laughter)
397
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（笑声）
18:03
Including us, I would remind you.
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我还要提醒你，这也包括我们
18:05
The rest -- wider array of partners.
399
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剩下的，更广泛的同盟者
18:07
International organizations, non-governmental organizations,
400
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有国际组织、非政府组织
18:09
private voluntary organizations, contractors.
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私人志愿者组织、承包商
18:11
You're not going to get away from that.
402
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你不能不管他们
18:13
Leviathan Force, it's all about joint operations between the military services.
403
1068000
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巨轮之力，都只是在军事方面的联合行动
18:16
We're done with that.
404
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我们已经做完了
18:18
What we need to do is inter-agency operations,
405
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我们需要去做的是在那些组织之间去开展行动
18:21
which frankly Condi Rice was in charge of.
406
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也就是赖斯管的那摊子事
18:23
And I'm amazed nobody asked her that question when she was confirmed.
407
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而我很奇怪为什么没人问她有关于那方面的问题
18:26
I call the Leviathan Force your dad's military.
408
1081000
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我把“巨轮之力”称为男人的力量
18:29
I like them young, male, unmarried, slightly pissed off.
409
1084000
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我喜欢那些年轻、未婚、易怒的男孩子们
18:33
(Laughter)
410
1088000
7000
（笑声）
18:40
I call the Sys Admin Force your mom's military.
411
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我把“系统监管”称为女人的力量
18:42
It's everything the man's military hates.
412
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关于它的每件事都是男人不屑于做的
18:44
Gender balanced much more, older, educated, married with children.
413
1099000
5000
这样性别更平衡、更成熟、有更好的教育，就会有更好的结果
18:49
The force on the left, up or out.
414
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左边的力量要么使用，要不就不用
18:52
The force on the right, in and out.
415
1107000
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而右边的力量不可或缺
18:55
The force on the left respects Posse Comitatus restrictions
416
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左边的力量要顾及到在调配美国国内的
18:58
on the use of force inside the U.S.
417
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临时部队时遇到的问题
19:00
The force on the right's going to obliterate it.
418
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而右边的力量就会扫平一切问题
19:02
That's where the National Guard's going to be.
419
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那就是国民警卫队要做的事情
19:03
The force on the left is never coming under the purview
420
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左边的力量从来不需要考虑
19:05
of the International Criminal Court.
421
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是否违反了国际刑事法庭的规定
19:07
Sys Admin Force has to.
422
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但“系统监管”会考虑
19:11
Different definitions of network centricity.
423
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二者对网络中心的定义是不同的
19:14
One takes down networks, one puts them up.
424
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一个是摧毁网络，一个是建立网络
19:17
And you've got to wage war here in such a way to facilitate that.
425
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你必须在以一种更好的方式来发动战争
19:21
Do we need a bigger budget?
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我们需要更多预算么？
19:23
Do we need a draft to pull this off?
427
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我们需要预制一个计划么？
19:26
Absolutely not.
428
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完全不需要
19:30
I've been told by the Revolution of Military Affairs crowd for years,
429
1145000
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多年来倡导军事变革的人们一种跟我讲
19:34
we can do it faster, cheaper, smaller, just as lethal.
430
1149000
3000
我们能做得更快、花费更少、动员的规模更小，给出致命一击
19:37
I say, "Great, I'm going to take the Sys Admin budget out of your hide."
431
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我说，“那太好了，我要把‘系统监管’的钱从你的预算里拿出来”
19:41
Here's the larger point.
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这才是重点
19:43
You're going to build the Sys Admin Force inside the U.S. Military first.
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你要首先在美国军队内部建立“系统监管”力量
19:45
But ultimately you're going to civilianize it, probably two thirds.
434
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但是最终你要将其中的大约三分之二平民化
19:49
Inter agency-ize it, internationalize it.
435
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将它推广到各种组织之间，使其全球化
19:53
So yes, it begins inside the Pentagon,
436
1168000
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当然，这要从五角大楼开始
19:55
but over time it's going to cross that river.
437
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3000
但是很快就会越过那条河
19:58
(Laughter)
438
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3000
（笑声）
20:01
I have been to the mountain top. I can see the future.
439
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我已经登顶了，我能看到希望
20:04
I may not live long enough to get you there, but it's going to happen.
440
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3000
我可能不能活到那一天，但是事情已经开始进行了
20:07
We're going to have a Department of Something Else
441
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我们会拥有一个战争之外的部门
20:09
between war and peace.
442
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处理战争和和平之间的事务
20:11
Last slide.
443
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最后一页
20:12
Who gets custody of the kids?
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那么谁来照顾这些孩子们呢？
20:14
This is where the Marines in the audience get kind of tense.
445
1189000
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台下的海军陆战队员们开始有点紧张了
20:16
(Laughter)
446
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（笑声）
20:23
And this is when they think about beating the crap out of me
447
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这正是他们把我的话
20:25
after the talk.
448
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当成废话的时刻
20:27
(Laughter)
449
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1000
（笑声）
20:28
Read Max Boon.
450
1203000
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读一下Max Boon
20:30
This is the history of the marines -- small wars, small arms.
451
1205000
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这是海军陆战队的历史——小型的战争，轻型的武器
20:32
The Marines are like my West Highland Terrier.
452
1207000
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海军陆战队就像我的西高地白梗（一种狗）
20:34
They get up every morning, they want to dig a hole
453
1209000
2000
每天早上醒来，挖一个洞
20:36
and they want to kill something.
454
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然后杀死些什么
20:38
(Laughter)
455
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2000
（笑声）
20:40
I don't want my Marines handing out aid.
456
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我不想我的海军陆战队去给谁提供援助
20:43
I want them to be Marines.
457
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2000
我只想让他们当海军陆战队
20:46
That's what keeps the Sys Admin Force from being a pussy force.
458
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这使得“系统监管”力量免于沦为一直柔弱的部队
20:48
It keeps it from being the U.N.
459
1223000
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免于变成联合国的部队
20:50
You shoot at these people the Marines are going to come over and kill you.
460
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你若向他们射击，那么海军陆战队员们会冲过来杀掉你
20:52
(Laughter)
461
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3000
（笑声）
20:55
(Applause)
462
1230000
3000
（掌声）
20:58
Department of Navy, strategic subs go this way,
463
1233000
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海军总部的战略者们就要走这条路
21:01
surface combatants are over there,
464
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水面战斗部队就在那里
21:03
and the news is they may actually be that small.
465
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将来可能他们会变得很小
21:05
(Laughter)
466
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（笑声）
21:08
I call it the Smart Dust Navy.
467
1243000
2000
我将那时的海军称之为“明智之尘”
21:10
I tell young officers, "You may command 500 ships in your career.
468
1245000
2000
我告诉年轻的官员，你可以在你一生之中指挥500艘舰船
21:12
Bad news is they may not have anybody on them."
469
1247000
4000
但是船上没有人
21:17
Carriers go both ways because they're a swing asset.
470
1252000
3000
航母部队两条路线都要走，因为他们是不固定的
21:21
You'll see the pattern -- airborne, just like carriers.
471
1256000
3000
你会看到这样的模式——海军航空部队，就像航母部队一样
21:24
Armor goes this way.
472
1259000
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装甲部队也会如此
21:26
Here's the dirty secret of the Air Force,
473
1261000
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下面就是关于空军的恶心的秘密
21:27
you can win by bombing.
474
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你会用炸弹取胜
21:29
But you need lots of these guys on the ground to win the peace.
475
1264000
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但是在赢得和平的过程中你需要很多这些在陆上的家伙
21:32
Shinseki was right with the argument.
476
1267000
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辛赛奇的观点是对的
21:36
Air force, strategic airlift goes both ways.
477
1271000
4000
空军，在战略上的空运中也要两条腿走路
21:40
Bombers, fighters go over here.
478
1275000
4000
轰炸机，战斗机也要这样走
21:45
Special Operations Command down at Tampa.
479
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2000
特殊行动指挥部在坦帕市
21:47
Trigger-pullers go this way.
480
1282000
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步兵也要如此
21:51
Civil Affairs, that bastard child, comes over here.
481
1286000
3000
民政部，那个混蛋小孩，也要到这里来
21:54
Return to the Army.
482
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回到部队中去
21:56
The point about the trigger-pullers and Special Operations Command.
483
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这是关于步兵和特别行动指挥部的
21:59
No off season, these guys are always active.
484
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不需要理由，这些家伙总是很活跃
22:02
They drop in, do their business, disappear.
485
1297000
6000
他们介入、做事情，然后消失
22:08
See me now. Don't talk about it later.
486
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现在看我，以后可不要再讨论这个问题了
22:10
(Laughter)
487
1305000
4000
（笑声）
22:14
I was never here.
488
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2000
我从没来过这里
22:16
(Laughter)
489
1311000
3000
（笑声）
22:19
The world is my playground.
490
1314000
2000
世界都是我的游乐场
22:21
(Laughter)
491
1316000
4000
（笑声）
22:25
I want to keep trigger-pullers trigger-happy.
492
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2000
我只想让步兵们开开心心地当地道的步兵
22:27
I want the rules to be as loose as possible.
493
1322000
2000
我想让这些规则尽可能地变宽松
22:29
Because when the thing gets prevented in Chicago
494
1324000
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因为在芝加哥事情受阻了
22:31
with the three million dead
495
1326000
2000
有三百万人都死了
22:33
that perverts our political system beyond all recognition,
496
1328000
2000
这就让我们的政治部门很受打击
22:35
these are the guys who are going to kill them first.
497
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有些人要先杀掉政治部门的人
22:38
So it's better off to have them make some mistakes along the way
498
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所以最好让他们沿着这条路先犯点错误
22:40
than to see that.
499
1335000
2000
而不是只是眼睁睁地看着
22:42
Reserve component --
500
1337000
2000
保留部分——
22:44
National Guard reserves overwhelmingly Sys Admin.
501
1339000
3000
国民警卫队保留占绝对优势的“系统监管”力量
22:47
How are you going to get them to work for this force?
502
1342000
2000
你怎样才能让他们为“系统监管”做事呢？
22:49
Most firemen in this country do it for free.
503
1344000
2000
美国的许多消防员都是免费为它做事的
22:51
This is not about money.
504
1346000
2000
这不是钱的问题
22:53
This is about being up front with these guys and gals.
505
1348000
3000
而是要让这些孩子们重到最前面
22:58
Last point, intelligence community --
506
1353000
2000
最后一点，情报界——
23:00
the muscle and the defense agencies go this way.
507
1355000
4000
政界和国防部都要参与
23:04
What should be the CIA, open, analytical, open source
508
1359000
3000
CIA要变的开放，去分析问题，公开资源
23:07
should come over here.
509
1362000
2000
要参与其中
23:09
The information you need to do this is not secret.
510
1364000
3000
你做事所需要的信息不是秘密
23:12
It's not secret.
511
1367000
2000
这不是秘密
23:14
Read that great piece in the New Yorker
512
1369000
1000
读一下《纽约客》上的那一页
23:15
about how our echo boomers, 19 to 25, over in Iraq
513
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3000
关于那些婴儿潮一代的子女们，大约19到25岁的那些在伊拉克的家伙们
23:18
taught each other how to do Sys Admin work,
514
1373000
3000
是怎样通过互联网上的聊天室来相互学习
23:21
over the Internet in chat rooms.
515
1376000
2000
完成“系统监管”的工作的
23:23
They said, "Al Qaeda could be listening."
516
1378000
2000
他们说，“基地组织应当听听”
23:25
They said, "Well, Jesus, they already know this stuff."
517
1380000
2000
他们说，“其实，主啊，他们已经都知道啦”
23:27
(Laughter)
518
1382000
3000
（笑声）
23:30
Take a gift in the left hand.
519
1385000
2000
左手拿一个礼物
23:32
These are the sunglasses that don't scare people, simple stuff.
520
1387000
4000
有不会吓到别人的太阳镜，简单的东西
23:38
Censors and transparency, the overheads go in both directions.
521
1393000
3000
经费不仅要用于审查工作，也要用来使工作透明化
23:41
Thanks.
522
1396000
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谢谢大家
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Thomas Barnett - Military strategistStrategic planner Thomas Barnett has advised US leaders on national security since the end of the Cold War. His bold ideas about the future of warfare and the military are spelled out in his best-selling book The Pentagon's New Map.
Why you should listen
Thomas P.M. Barnett's bracing confidence and radical recommendations make him a powerful force shaping the future of the US military.
In his book The Pentagon's New Map: War and Peace in the Twenty-First Century, Barnett draws on a fascinating combination of economic, political and cultural factors to predict and explain the nature of modern warfare. He presents concrete, world-changing strategies for transforming the US military -- adrift in the aftermath of the Cold War and 9/11 -- into a two-tiered power capable not only of winning battles, but of promoting and preserving international peace.
Thomas has been a senior adviser to military and civilian leaders in a range of offices, including the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, Central Command and Special Operations Command. During the tumultuous period from November 2001 to June 2003, he advised the Pentagon on transforming military capabilities to meet future threats. He led the five-year NewRuleSet.Project, which studied how globalization is transforming warfare. The study found, among other things, that when a country's per-capita income rises above ~$3,000, war becomes much less likely.
Barnett is unusually outspoken in a field cloaked in secrecy. His follow-up book is Blueprint for Action: A Future Worth Creating, and he writes regular columns for Esquire and the Knoxville News Sentinel. He also maintains a prolific blog, where he covers current global events.
Thomas Barnett | Speaker | TED.com