TED2019
Moriba Jah: The world's first crowdsourced space traffic monitoring system
莫里巴·杰: 世界上第一个众包太空交通监控系统
Filmed:
Readability: 4.2
1,581,310 views
“我们送到外太空的大部分东西再也不会回来了，”天体动力学家、TED 成员莫里巴·杰说道。在这篇前瞻性的演讲中，杰描述了环绕地球的太空高速公路，以及它们是如何被太空垃圾占据的。观看视频了解更多关于他开发和扩展世界上第一个众包空间交通监控系统的探索——以及这个系统如何帮助解决近地空间的碎片问题。
Moriba Jah - Space environmentalist
TED Fellow Moriba Jah studies and predicts the motion of objects in space in an effort to make space safe, secure, and sustainable. Full bio
TED Fellow Moriba Jah studies and predicts the motion of objects in space in an effort to make space safe, secure, and sustainable. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
I am an astrodynamicist --
0
1146
2381
我是一个天体力学家，
00:15
you know, like that guy Rich Purnell
in the movie "The Martian."
in the movie "The Martian."
1
3551
3460
就像《火星救援》里的瑞奇·珀内尔。
00:19
And it's my job to study and predict
motion of objects in space.
motion of objects in space.
2
7885
5877
而我的工作就是研究并预测
太空中物体的运动轨迹。
太空中物体的运动轨迹。
00:27
Currently we track about one percent
of hazardous objects on orbit --
of hazardous objects on orbit --
3
15172
5752
当前我们正在追踪轨道上
大约百分之一的危险物体——
大约百分之一的危险物体——
00:33
hazardous to services like location,
4
21714
3117
那些比如威胁到定位服务、
00:36
agriculture, banking,
5
24855
2350
农业、银行业、
00:39
television and communications,
6
27229
1967
通信与电话业、
00:41
and soon -- very soon --
7
29220
1866
并且很快——比你想的要快，
00:43
even the internet itself.
8
31110
1673
会威胁到互联网本身的物体。
00:45
Now these services are not protected
from, roughly, half a million objects
from, roughly, half a million objects
9
33892
6197
目前这些服务设施
暴露在大约 50 万
暴露在大约 50 万
00:52
the size of a speck of paint
10
40113
2120
从一粒油漆
00:55
all the way to a school bus in size.
11
43060
2150
直到校车大小物体的威胁中。
00:58
A speck of paint,
12
46398
1874
一点油漆
01:00
traveling at the right speed,
13
48296
2855
以适当的速度运行时，
01:03
impacting one of these objects,
14
51175
1558
撞击其中一个设备，
01:04
could render it absolutely useless.
15
52757
2219
可能让它彻底报废。
01:08
But we can't track things
as small as a speck of paint.
as small as a speck of paint.
16
56394
3925
但我们无法跟踪像一块油漆
那么小的东西。
那么小的东西。
01:12
We can only track things
as small as say, a smartphone.
as small as say, a smartphone.
17
60694
4164
我们只能跟踪到小至，比如说
智能手机那样的东西。
智能手机那样的东西。
01:17
So of this half million objects
that we should be concerned about,
that we should be concerned about,
18
65605
4866
所以在这 50 万
我们应该关心的物体中，
我们应该关心的物体中，
01:22
we can only track
about 26,000 of these objects.
about 26,000 of these objects.
19
70495
4157
我们只能跟踪其中的 26000 个。
01:26
And of these 26,000,
only 2,000 actually work.
only 2,000 actually work.
20
74676
5642
而这 26000 个中，
只有 2000 个真正有用。
只有 2000 个真正有用。
01:33
Everything else
21
81805
1150
其他
01:35
is garbage.
22
83764
1150
都是垃圾。
01:38
That's a lot of garbage.
23
86481
1368
有很多的垃圾。
01:40
To make things a little bit worse,
24
88227
1928
让事情变得更糟糕的是，
01:43
most of what we launch into orbit
never comes back.
never comes back.
25
91356
4069
我们发射到轨道的
大部分物体永远不会返回。
大部分物体永远不会返回。
01:49
We send the satellite in orbit,
26
97496
2611
我们把卫星发射到轨道，
01:52
it stops working, it runs out of fuel,
27
100131
2968
它停止了工作，燃料用尽，
01:55
and we send something else up ...
28
103123
2635
然后我们发射其他的上去……
01:57
and then we send up something else ...
29
105782
2365
接着又发射其他的上去……
02:00
and then something else.
30
108171
1491
一波接一波。
02:01
And every once in a while,
31
109686
1529
每隔一段时间，
02:03
two of these things
will collide with each other
will collide with each other
32
111239
2530
其中两个物体会相互碰撞
02:05
or one of these things will explode,
33
113793
1771
或者其中一个物体会爆炸，
02:07
or even worse,
34
115588
1195
或者更糟糕，
02:08
somebody might just happen to destroy
one of their satellites on orbit,
one of their satellites on orbit,
35
116807
3685
有人可能恰好在轨道
摧毁他们的一颗卫星，
摧毁他们的一颗卫星，
02:13
and this generates many, many more pieces,
36
121595
3659
这产生了更多的碎片，
02:17
most of which also never come back.
37
125278
2602
很多碎片再也不会回到地球。
02:20
Now these things are not
just randomly scattered in orbit.
just randomly scattered in orbit.
38
128748
3760
如今这些物体不仅只是
随机散落在轨道，
随机散落在轨道，
02:25
It turns out that given
the curvature of space-time,
the curvature of space-time,
39
133715
3245
实际上，给定时空的曲率，
02:28
there are ideal locations
40
136984
1962
存在一些理想的位置
02:30
where we put some of these satellites --
41
138970
1986
可以放置一些卫星——
02:32
think of these as space highways.
42
140980
2751
可以把这些位置
想象成太空高速公路。
想象成太空高速公路。
02:37
Very much like highways on earth,
43
145344
1889
非常像地球上的高速公路，
02:39
these space highways can only take up
a maximum capacity of traffic
a maximum capacity of traffic
44
147257
4719
这些太空高速公路只能
占用最大的运输能力
占用最大的运输能力
02:44
to sustain space-safe operations.
45
152000
3780
来维持空间的安全运作。
02:49
Unlike highways on earth,
46
157014
2336
不像地球上的高速公路，
02:51
there are actually no space traffic rules.
47
159374
2212
这里事实上没有太空交通规则。
02:53
None whatsoever, OK?
48
161610
1933
一点儿也没有。
02:57
Wow.
49
165662
1150
喔。
03:00
What could possibly go wrong with that?
50
168450
1945
这能有什么问题呢？
03:02
(Laughter)
51
170419
1367
（笑声）
03:04
Now, what would be really nice
52
172482
2315
如果我们有像太空交通地图
03:06
is if we had something
like a space traffic map,
like a space traffic map,
53
174821
3638
那样的东西会很棒，
03:10
like a Waze for space that I could look up
54
178483
3023
比如 Waze 太空地图可以让我
03:13
and see what the current
traffic conditions are in space,
traffic conditions are in space,
55
181530
2767
看到太空的交通状况，
甚至能进行预测。
03:16
maybe even predict these.
56
184321
1434
03:17
The problem with that, however,
57
185779
2103
但问题在于，
03:19
is that ask five different people,
58
187906
3362
问 5 个不同的人，
03:24
"What's going on in orbit?
59
192337
1403
“轨道现在怎样了？
03:25
Where are things going?"
60
193764
1215
这些物体去哪了？”
03:27
and you're probably going to get
10 different answers.
10 different answers.
61
195003
2673
你可能会得到 10 个不同的答案。
03:29
Why is that?
62
197700
1382
为什么会那样？
03:31
It's because information about things
on orbit is not commonly shared either.
on orbit is not commonly shared either.
63
199106
4810
因为轨道上物体的信息
并没有充分共享。
并没有充分共享。
03:37
So what if we had a globally accessible,
64
205187
2495
那么，如果我们有一个
全球可访问的、
全球可访问的、
03:39
open and transparent
space traffic information system
space traffic information system
65
207706
3348
开放和透明的空间交通信息系统，
03:43
that can inform the public
of where everything is located
of where everything is located
66
211078
3015
可以告知公众物体的位置，
03:46
to try to keep space safe and sustainable?
67
214117
2980
以保证太空安全和可持续会怎样呢？
03:49
And what if the system could be used
68
217121
3604
如果这个系统可以用来
03:52
to form evidence-based
norms of behavior --
norms of behavior --
69
220749
2977
形成以证据为基础的行为规范——
03:55
these space traffic rules?
70
223750
1572
这些太空交通规则，会怎样呢？
03:57
So I developed ASTRIAGraph,
71
225830
2159
所以我开发了 ASTRIAGraph，
04:00
the world's first crowdsourced,
space traffic monitoring system
space traffic monitoring system
72
228013
3765
在德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校
诞生的世界首个
诞生的世界首个
04:03
at the University of Texas at Austin.
73
231802
1794
众包的太空交通监控系统。
04:06
ASTRIAGraph combines multiple sources
of information from around the globe --
of information from around the globe --
74
234694
5282
ASTRIAGraph 结合了来自
全球各地的信息源——
全球各地的信息源——
04:12
government, industry and academia --
75
240000
1917
政府部门，工业界和学术界——
04:13
and represents this in a common framework
that anybody can access today.
that anybody can access today.
76
241941
4017
并用今天任何人都可以访问
的公共框架进行展示。
的公共框架进行展示。
04:19
Here, you can see 26,000 objects
orbiting the earth,
orbiting the earth,
77
247249
4510
在这里，你可以看到有 26000 个
绕地球运行的物体，
绕地球运行的物体，
04:23
multiple opinions,
78
251783
1829
来自不同的角度，
04:25
and it gets updated in near real time.
79
253636
2473
并以接近实时的速度更新。
04:28
But back to my problem
of space traffic map:
of space traffic map:
80
256447
3606
但回到我的空间交通地图问题：
04:32
What if you only had information
from the US government?
from the US government?
81
260077
3369
如果你只有美国政府的信息会怎样？
04:36
Well, in that case, that's what
your space traffic map would look like.
your space traffic map would look like.
82
264018
3374
在这种情况下，这是你的
太空交通地图的样子。
太空交通地图的样子。
04:39
But what do the Russians think?
83
267989
2390
但俄罗斯人会怎么想？
04:45
That looks significantly different.
84
273343
1950
这看起来就明显不同。
04:47
Who's right? Who's wrong?
85
275881
2153
谁是对的？谁是错的？
04:50
What should I believe?
86
278058
1405
我应该相信什么？
04:51
What could I trust?
87
279487
1360
我应该信任谁？
04:52
This is part of the issue.
88
280871
1464
这是一部分问题。
04:55
In the absence of this framework
to monitor space-actor behavior,
to monitor space-actor behavior,
89
283864
6777
缺乏这个框架来
监控太空物体行为，
监控太空物体行为，
05:03
to monitor activity in space --
90
291421
2273
去监控太空活动——
05:05
where these objects are located --
91
293718
1751
这些设备的位置——
05:07
to reconcile these inconsistencies
92
295493
2937
去调和这些矛盾
05:10
and make this knowledge commonplace,
93
298454
2456
和让这些知识变得司空见惯，
05:12
we actually risk losing the ability
94
300934
3621
我们其实是冒着失去
05:17
to use space for humanity's benefit.
95
305580
3046
太空用于人类福祉的风险。
05:22
Thank you very much.
96
310393
1159
谢谢大家。
05:23
(Applause and cheers)
97
311576
4630
（鼓掌并欢呼）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Moriba Jah - Space environmentalistTED Fellow Moriba Jah studies and predicts the motion of objects in space in an effort to make space safe, secure, and sustainable.
Why you should listen
All kinds of junk are floating around in space -- old satellites, rockets, other man-made debris -- that pose an increasing danger to space missions. Astrodynamicist Moriba Jah monitors this orbital debris with ASTRIAGraph, a software that tracks the positions and speeds of objects in Earth’s orbit. Jah's vision is for AstriaGraph to become a crowd-sourced citizen-science platform that will make information about space traffic openly available to future generations. His ultimate goal is to make space safe, secure and sustainable.
Moriba Jah | Speaker | TED.com