TED2009
Juan Enriquez: The next species of human
胡安 恩利克斯分享令人吃惊的新科技
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3,584,967 views
即使庞大的银行纷纷崩溃，胡安 恩利克斯认为巨大的复苏仍然会来到。但别指望你的选票会起作用，或者股票交易。它会来自科学实验室，并且会带来更敏捷的身体与思维。我们的后代将会变得不同。
Juan Enriquez - Futurist
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society. Full bio
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
There's a great big elephant in the room called the economy.
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经济是个重要，而又常被避开的话题。
00:16
So let's start talking about that.
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让我们来聊下它。
00:18
I wanted to give you a current picture of the economy.
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我想给你们看看目前的经济状况。
00:21
That's what I have behind myself.
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这是我自己身后的东西。
00:24
(Laughter)
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笑声
00:27
But of course what we have to remember is this.
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言归正传，当然我们需要记住的,
00:30
And what you have to think about is,
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并且你们需要思考的是,
00:33
when you're dancing in the flames, what's next?
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当你们在热焰上跳舞，后面会发生什么？
00:36
So what I'm going to try to do in the next 17 and a half minutes
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所以在接下来的17.5分钟里，我着意要做的是
00:39
is I'm going to talk first about the flames --
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首先要谈一谈这火焰
00:41
where we are in the economy --
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目前我们所处的经济状况
00:43
and then I'm going to take three trends
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接着我要提出三个趋势
00:45
that have taken place at TED over the last 25 years
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这三个趋势已经在过去25年的TED大会上提到过
00:48
and that will take place in this conference
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也会在这次的会议上涉及
00:50
and I will try and bring them together.
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并且我会尝试把它们联系到一起。
00:53
And I will try and give you a sense of what the ultimate reboot looks like.
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同时尝试展示给你们看终极的复苏会是怎样的。
00:57
Those three trends are
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这三个趋势是
00:59
the ability to engineer cells,
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细胞工程
01:01
the ability to engineer tissues,
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组织工程
01:03
and robots.
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机器人工程
01:05
And somehow it will all make sense.
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并且大家都会理解
01:07
But anyway, let's start with the economy.
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不过，我们还是从经济讲起吧
01:10
There's a couple of really big problems that are still sitting there.
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有一些非常大的问题仍然存在
01:13
One is leverage.
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一个是杠杆化
01:15
And the problem with leverage is
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杠杆化的问题是
01:17
it makes the U.S. financial system look like this.
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它把美国的财政系统弄成了这个样子
01:20
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
01:27
So, a normal commercial bank has nine to 10 times leverage.
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一个普通的商业银行有9到10倍
01:30
That means for every dollar you deposit, it loans out about nine or 10.
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这意味着你存进银行的每一块钱都能贷出大约9或者10块
01:33
A normal investment bank is not a deposit bank,
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一个普通的投资银行不是存款银行，
01:36
it's an investment bank;
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它是一个投资银行；
01:38
it has 15 to 20 times.
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有着大约15到20倍。
01:40
It turns out that B of A in September had 32 times.
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结果美洲银行在9月份是32倍。
01:43
And your friendly Citibank had 47 times.
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花旗银行有47倍。
01:46
Oops.
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喔哦。
01:48
That means every bad loan goes bad 47 times over.
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这就是说每笔坏帐会坏上47倍。
01:52
And that, of course, is the reason why all of you
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那当然，就是为什么你们
01:55
are making such generous and wonderful donations
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做出了这么慷慨和美妙的捐赠
01:58
to these nice folks.
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给这些人们。
02:03
And as you think about that,
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当你们在想这件事情的时候，
02:05
you've got to wonder: so what do banks have in store for you now?
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你们会觉得好奇：那银行里现在还为你们存着些什么呢？
02:11
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
02:20
It ain't pretty.
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显然不是很棒
02:23
The government, meanwhile, has been acting like Santa Claus.
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与此同时，政府扮的像圣诞老人一样
02:27
We all love Santa Claus, right?
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我们都爱圣诞老人不是吗？
02:30
But the problem with Santa Clause is,
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不过，圣诞老人有个问题是，
02:33
if you look at the mandatory spending of what these folks have been doing
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如果你回顾下这些人的所作所为而导致的“强制性开销”
02:36
and promising folks,
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以及他们所承诺给人们的事项。
02:38
it turned out that in 1967, 38 percent was mandatory spending
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结果到了1937年，38％都是“强制性开销”
02:43
on what we call "entitlements."
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在了我们所谓“权利”上。
02:46
And then by 2007 it was 68 percent.
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到了07年变成了68%。
02:49
And we weren't supposed to run into 100 percent until about 2030.
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到2030年左右，会达到100％
02:54
Except we've been so busy giving away a trillion here, a trillion there,
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然而，如果我们再急不可耐的这里几万亿，那里几万亿
02:57
that we've brought that date of reckoning forward
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这个估算结果会提前
03:00
to about 2017.
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到2017年。
03:03
And we thought we were going to be able to lay these debts off on our kids,
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我们认为自己将有能力不让我们的孩子承担这些债务，
03:06
but, guess what?
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但，你猜怎么着？
03:08
We're going to start to pay them.
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我们才开始偿还它们。
03:10
And the problem with this stuff is, now that the bill's come due,
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关于这些事情的问题是，现在支票到期了，
03:12
it turns out Santa isn't quite as cute when it's summertime.
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结果圣诞老人在夏天并不那么可爱了。
03:16
Right?
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对吗？
03:18
(Laughter)
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笑声
03:30
Here's some advice from one of the largest investors in the United States.
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这里是美国最大的投资商中的一位提出的一些建议。
03:34
This guy runs the China Investment Corporation.
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这个人经营中国投资集团。
03:37
He is the main buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds.
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他是美国国库券的主要购买者。
03:40
And he gave an interview in December.
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他在11月出席了一次访谈。
03:43
Here's his first bit of advice.
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这是他的第一条建议。
03:45
And here's his second bit of advice.
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这是他的第二条建议。
03:50
And, by the way,
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顺便说一下，
03:52
the Chinese Prime Minister reiterated this at Davos last Sunday.
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中国国务院总理上周日在达沃斯又重申了这点。
03:55
This stuff is getting serious enough
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情况已经不容乐观了
03:57
that if we don't start paying attention to the deficit,
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如果我们仍然不重视这些缺陷
03:59
we're going to end up losing the dollar.
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结果就会是大量亏损。
04:02
And then all bets are off.
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仅此一项，就足以带来不堪设想的结果。
04:05
Let me show you what it looks like.
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让我给你们看看情况会是怎样的。
04:08
I think I can safely say
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我想我可以很有把握地说
04:10
that I'm the only trillionaire in this room.
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我会是这个房间里唯一的万亿富翁。
04:14
This is an actual bill.
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这是一张真的钞票。
04:16
And it's 10 triliion dollars.
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它值10万亿美元。
04:19
The only problem with this bill is it's not really worth very much.
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问题只是它其实并不值这么多。
04:22
That was eight bucks last week, four bucks this week,
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上周是8块，这周就是4块，
04:25
a buck next week.
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下周只值1块了。
04:27
And that's what happens to currencies when you don't stand behind them.
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当我们支撑不了汇率的时候，这样的情况就会发生。
04:32
So the next time somebody as cute as this shows up on your doorstep,
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所以下次有类似这样可爱的人出现在你的门口时，
04:37
and sometimes this creature's called Chrysler and sometimes Ford and sometimes ... whatever you want --
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有时候这个东西叫克莱斯勒或者有时是福特或者别的名字，
04:44
you've just got to say no.
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你就要说不。
04:46
And you've got to start banishing a word that's called "entitlement."
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并且你必须开始不再使用“权益”这个词。
04:50
And the reason we have to do that in the short term
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就眼前来说我们这样做的理由
04:53
is because we have just run out of cash.
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就是我们没钱了。
04:56
If you look at the federal budget, this is what it looks like.
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如果你们去看看联邦政府的预算，就是这个样子的
04:59
The orange slice is what's discretionary.
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橙色部分是自由资金，
05:02
Everything else is mandated.
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别的都是强制性的。
05:05
It makes no difference if we cut out the bridges to Alaska in the overall scheme of things.
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在整件事情里即使我们切断通向阿拉斯加的桥也不会发生什么变化。
05:08
So what we have to start thinking about doing
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所以我们不得不开始计划要做的
05:11
is capping our medical spending
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就是封住医疗支出
05:13
because that's a monster that's simply going to eat the entire budget.
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因为这是一头将会要吞噬掉所有预算的怪物。
05:16
We've got to start thinking about asking people
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我们开始想要求人们
05:19
to retire a little bit later.
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晚一点退休。
05:22
If you're 60 to 65 you retire on time.
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如果你是在60倒65岁之间正常退休，
05:25
Your 401(k) just got nailed.
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你的退休金刚刚只受到一些影响。
05:27
If you're 50 to 60 we want you to work two years more.
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如果你是50到60岁之间,我们希望你再多做两年。
05:30
If you're under 50 we want you to work four more years.
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如果你50不到,我们希望你再多做4年。
05:33
The reason why that's reasonable is,
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这样做合理的原因是，
05:36
when your grandparents were given Social Security,
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当你祖父获得社会保障时，
05:38
they got it at 65 and were expected to check out at 68.
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他们在65岁时开始领，68岁时领完。
05:41
Sixty-eight is young today.
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如今68岁算年轻了。
05:44
We've also got to cut the military about three percent a year.
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我们也需要每年削减军费3％。
05:48
We've got to limit other mandatory spending.
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并且限制其他强制开销。
05:50
We've got to quit borrowing as much,
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我们不能再借这么多钱
05:53
because otherwise the interest is going to eat that whole pie.
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否则利息会吞噬整个预算。
05:56
And we've got to end up with a smaller government.
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最后就剩下一个更小的政府。
05:58
And if we don't start changing this trend line,
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如果我们不开始改变这个趋势，
06:01
we are going to lose the dollar
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就将会蒙受经济上的损失
06:03
and start to look like Iceland.
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就会沦为象冰岛一样 。
06:05
I got what you're thinking.
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我知道你们在想什么。
06:08
This is going to happen when hell freezes over.
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这一切只有在地狱封冻了才会发生。
06:13
But let me remind you this December it did snow in Vegas.
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但是我提醒你今年11月维加斯的确下雪了。
06:18
(Laughter)
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笑声
06:23
Here's what happens if you don't address this stuff.
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如果你们不处理这些事，就将会发生的以下情况。
06:26
So, Japan had a fiscal real estate crisis
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日本发生过一次财政地产危机
06:29
back in the late '80s.
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在80年代后期。
06:31
And its 225 largest companies today
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今天它的225家最大的企业
06:34
are worth one quarter of what they were 18 years ago.
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只有相当于18年前四分之一的价值。
06:37
We don't fix this now,
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我们现在不解决这个问题，
06:39
how would you like to see a Dow 3,500 in 2026?
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你是否乐意在2026年看到一个到琼斯3500点？
06:42
Because that's the consequence of not dealing with this stuff.
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因为这就是不处理这些事情的后果。
06:45
And unless you want this person
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除非你希望这个人
06:48
to not just become the CFO of Florida, but the United States,
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不仅变成佛罗里达州的首席财政官，并且掌管美国经济，
06:51
we'd better deal with this stuff.
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我们最好处理好这些事情。
06:54
That's the short term. That's the flame part.
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以上是目前的情况，就是火焰的部分。
06:57
That's the financial crisis.
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这就是金融危机。
06:59
Now, right behind the financial crisis there's a second and bigger wave
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现在，在金融危机背后的是第二波更大的浪潮
07:03
that we need to talk about.
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这是我们需要讲的。
07:04
That wave is much larger, much more powerful,
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这股浪潮要大的多，也有力的多，
07:06
and that's of course the wave of technology.
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当然这是技术的浪潮。
07:09
And what's really important in this stuff is,
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在这里面最重要的是，
07:11
as we cut, we also have to grow.
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当我们在削减的同时，也需要增长。
07:13
Among other things, because startup companies
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不说别的，就只说新晋的公司
07:16
are .02 percent of U.S. GDP investmentm
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只占美国GDP的投资的0.02％
07:18
and they're about 17.8 percent of output.
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却带来了17.8%的产出
07:23
It's groups like that in this room that generate the future of the U.S. economy.
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这样的一群人比如在这个房间内的各位便是创造美国经济未来的人。
07:26
And that's what we've got to keep growing.
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这是我们需要保持增长的部分。
07:28
We don't have to keep growing these bridges to nowhere.
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我们不必毫无方向地发展。
07:32
So let's bring a romance novelist into this conversation.
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因此让我们把浪漫派作家带进这场谈话中。
07:38
And that's where these three trends come together.
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这是三个趋势合并到一起的地方
07:43
That's where the ability to engineer microbes,
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便是微生物工程
07:46
the ability to engineer tissues,
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组织工程
07:48
and the ability to engineer robots
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机器人工程
07:50
begin to lead to a reboot.
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所导向的复苏。
07:52
And let me recap some of the stuff you've seen.
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让我重述一些你们所见过的东西。
07:54
Craig Venter showed up last year
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克雷格 凡特去年来到这里
07:56
and showed you the first fully programmable cell that acts like hardware
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并展示给大家第一个完全可编程的，运行起来就像计算机硬件般的细胞
07:58
where you can insert DNA and have it boot up as a different species.
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你能植入DNA，并且启动它，变成另一个物种。
08:01
In parallel, the folks at MIT
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与此同时，在MIT的人们
08:04
have been building a standard registry of biological parts.
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开始制定生物器官的标准注册表。
08:07
So think of it as a Radio Shack for biology.
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可以把这些想像成一股生物界的震荡波。
08:10
You can go out and get your proteins, your RNA, your DNA, whatever.
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你可以获得你的蛋白质，RNA,DNA,或者任何东西。
08:13
And start building stuff.
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并开始制造东西。
08:16
In 2006 they brought together high school students and college students
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在2006年他们组织了一些高中生和大学生
08:19
and started to build these little odd creatures.
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开始制造这些奇怪的小东西。
08:21
They just happened to be alive instead of circuit boards.
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它们的确活了起来而不只是电路板
08:24
Here was one of the first things they built.
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这是它们制造的第一个东西
08:27
So, cells have this cycle.
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细胞有这样的一个周期
08:29
First they don't grow.
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起先它们不生长
08:31
Then they grow exponentially.
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接着以指数速度生长
08:33
Then they stop growing.
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然后又停止
08:35
Graduate students wanted a way of telling which stage they were in.
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研究生们希望找到一种方法能知道他们是处在什么阶段
08:38
So they engineered these cells
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所以他们改造了这些细胞
08:40
so that when they're growing in the exponential phase,
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这样这些细胞就能在指数增长阶段时，
08:42
they would smell like wintergreen.
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散发除鹿蹄草的味道
08:44
And when they stopped growing they would smell like bananas.
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当它们停止生长就会闻起来像香蕉
08:47
And you could tell very easily when your experiment was working
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这样你就能很方便地知道你的实验什么时候是顺利的
08:50
and wasn't, and where it was in the phase.
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什么时候不起作用，以及它正处在什么阶段
08:53
This got a bit more complicated two years later.
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在两年后这个实验又变得更复杂了一点
08:56
Twenty-one countries came together. Dozens of teams.
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21个国家参与了进来，几十个团队
08:58
They started competing.
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他们开始竞争
09:00
The team from Rice University started to engineer the substance in red wine
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莱斯大学的团队开始改造红酒里的物质
09:05
that makes red wine good for you
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把那些对你有好处的东西
09:07
into beer.
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放进啤酒
09:10
So you take resveratrol and you put it into beer.
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你可以提炼出白藜芦醇放进啤酒
09:14
Of course, one of the judges is wandering by, and he goes,
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当然，有一位评审走过时，发出这样的惊叹
09:17
"Wow! Cancer-fighting beer! There is a God."
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哇哦！抗癌啤酒！上帝的确存在！
09:21
(Laughter)
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笑声
09:24
The team from Taiwan was a little bit more ambitious.
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来自台湾得团队更雄心勃勃
09:27
They tried to engineer bacterias in such a way
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他们想要这样修改细菌
09:30
that they would act as your kidneys.
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让它们像你们得肾脏一样工作
09:33
Four years ago, I showed you this picture.
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4年前，我给你们看了这张图片。
09:36
And people oohed and ahhed,
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人们惊叹不已，
09:38
because Cliff Tabin had been able to grow an extra wing on a chicken.
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因为克里夫 塔宾能在鸡身上多长一只翅膀出来
09:41
And that was very cool stuff back then.
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那时候这真是非常酷的东西
09:44
But now moving from bacterial engineering to tissue engineering,
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现在从细菌改造到生物组织制造
09:47
let me show you what's happened in that period of time.
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让我来展示给你们看这段时间里发生了什么
09:50
Two years ago, you saw this creature.
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2年前，你们看这个生物。
09:53
An almost-extinct animal from Xochimilco, Mexico
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一种几乎灭绝的生物，生活在霍奇米尔科,墨西哥
09:56
called an axolotl
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叫做蝾螈
09:58
that can re-generate its limbs.
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它能再生自己的四肢
10:00
You can freeze half its heart. It regrows.
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你能冷藏它的半颗心脏，它会再长出来
10:02
You can freeze half the brain. It regrows.
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冷藏它的一半大脑，它会再长出来
10:04
It's almost like leaving Congress.
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几乎就像是离开国会
10:06
(Laughter)
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笑声
10:12
But now, you don't have to have the animal itself to regenerate,
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但是现在，你不必要那个动物再自我恢复，
10:15
because you can build cloned mice molars in Petri dishes.
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因为你能在培养皿里制造克隆的老鼠的磨牙。
10:21
And, of course if you can build mice molars in Petri dishes,
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当然如果你能在培养皿里制造老鼠牙齿
10:25
you can grow human molars in Petri dishes.
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你就也能在培养皿里生长人类的磨牙
10:28
This should not surprise you, right?
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这些不会让你感到惊奇吧？
10:30
I mean, you're born with no teeth.
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你们出生的时候是没有牙齿的
10:32
You give away all your teeth to the tooth fairy.
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你把自己的牙齿全都给了牙仙
10:35
You re-grow a set of teeth.
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又长出了一副牙齿
10:37
But then if you lose one of those second set of teeth, they don't regrow,
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但如果你失去了第二副牙齿，就不会再长出来了
10:40
unless, if you're a lawyer.
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除非，你是个律师
10:42
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
10:46
But, of course, for most of us,
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当然，我们大多数人，
10:49
we know how to grow teeth, and therefore we can take adult stem teeth,
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我们知道怎样生长牙齿，所以我们能取出成人的干细胞，
10:52
put them on a biodegradable mold, re-grow a tooth,
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放进一个能生物降解的模具，再生长出牙齿，
10:55
and simply implant it.
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就能很方便地植入它。
10:56
And we can do it with other things.
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我们也能用其他东西来做到这点
10:59
So, a Spanish woman who was dying of T.B. had a donor trachea,
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一个因为肺结核而生命垂危西班牙妇女获得了一个捐赠的气管，
11:04
they took all the cells off the trachea,
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他们把气管上所有的细胞都去除，
11:06
they spraypainted her stem cells onto that cartilage.
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然后在那软骨上面散布了她的干细胞。
11:09
She regrew her own trachea,
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她再生了自己的气管，
11:11
and 72 hours later it was implanted.
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72小时后它就被植入了。
11:14
She's now running around with her kids.
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现在她正和她的孩子一起嬉闹奔跑。
11:16
This is going on in Tony Atala's lab in Wake Forest
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这是在维克丛林里的托尼阿塔拉实验室里发生的
11:19
where he is re-growing ears for injured soldiers,
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他为受伤的士兵再生长耳朵，
11:22
and he's also re-growing bladders.
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他也再生膀胱。
11:26
So there are now nine women walking around Boston
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在波士顿大约有九位女士带着再生的
11:29
with re-grown bladders,
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膀胱四处走动，
11:31
which is much more pleasant than walking around with a whole bunch of plastic bags
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相比起整个余生都要带着一大捆塑料袋
11:33
for the rest of your life.
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出门要愉快多了。
11:35
This is kind of getting boring, right?
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有点无趣了是吗？
11:38
I mean, you understand where this story's going.
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你们都理解发展的方向。
11:40
But, I mean it gets more interesting.
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但是它变得更有趣了。
11:42
Last year, this group was able to take all the cells off a heart,
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去年，这个小组能取走一颗心脏上所有得细胞，
11:46
leaving just the cartilage.
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只留下软骨。
11:49
Then, they sprayed stem cells onto that heart, from a mouse.
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接着，他们在那个心脏上散布来自一只老鼠的干细胞。
11:51
Those stem cells self-organized, and that heart started to beat.
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这些干细胞自我组织，并且这个心脏开始跳了。
11:55
Life happens.
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生命出现了。
11:59
This may be one of the ultimate papers.
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这或许是最终极的论文之一。
12:02
This was done in Japan and in the U.S., published at the same time,
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美国和日本都完成了这项实验，在同一时间发表，
12:05
and it rebooted skin cells into stem cells, last year.
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然后去年又将皮肤细胞重新激活成干细胞。
12:10
That meant that you can take the stuff right here,
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这以为着你可以把这里的东西拿出来，
12:13
and turn it into almost anything in your body.
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变成你身体里的任何东西。
12:15
And this is becoming common, it's moving very quickly,
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这正在变得普遍，发展得非常快，
12:18
it's moving in a whole series of places.
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向一系列领域发展。
12:22
Third trend: robots.
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第三个趋势：机器人。
12:25
Those of us of a certain age grew up expecting that by now
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我们这年龄的人从年轻一直到现在还在期待
12:28
we would have Rosie the Robot from "The Jetsons" in our house.
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家里会有“杰森一家”里的罗茜和罗伯特。
12:32
And all we've got is a Roomba.
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我们现在得到的就是地板清洁器。
12:35
(Laughter)
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笑声
12:38
We also thought we'd have this robot to warn us of danger.
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我们也希望这个机器人来为我们预警。
12:42
Didn't happen.
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也没发生。
12:44
And these were robots engineered for a flat world, right?
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这些机器人是为了一个平等的世界而制造的不是吗？
12:47
So, Rosie runs around on skates
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罗茜在滑板周围奔跑
12:49
and the other one ran on flat threads.
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其他的在平的线路上跑着。
12:52
If you don't have a flat world, that's not good,
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如果你得不到一个平等的世界，就不好了。
12:54
which is why the robot's we're designing today are a little different.
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这就是为什么今天我们设计的机器人有些不同。
13:00
This is Boston Dynamics' "BigDog."
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这是波士顿动力的“大狗”。
13:05
And this is about as close as you can get to a physical Turing test.
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这是你目前能看到的最接近物理图林测试的项目。
13:08
O.K., so let me remind you, a Turing test is where you've got a wall,
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好了，让我提醒你们，图林测试就是你在一堵墙边，
13:12
you're talking to somebody on the other side of the wall,
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和墙另一边的某人交谈
13:14
and when you don't know if that thing is human or animal --
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同时并不清楚那个东西是人还是动物
13:17
that's when computers have reached human intelligence.
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这是在当电脑接近了人类的智力的时候。
13:21
This is not an intelligence Turing rest,
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这不是一个智力图林测试，
13:24
but this is as close as you can get to a physical Turing test.
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但这的确是目前最接近物理图林测试的。
13:27
And this stuff is moving very quickly,
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并且这东西移动的非常快，
13:29
and by the way, that thing can carry about 350 pounds of weight.
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顺便说下，它能负重350磅。
13:34
These are not the only interesting robots.
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这些不仅仅是有趣的机器人。
13:37
You've also got flies, the size of flies,
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还有苍蝇尺寸的
13:39
that are being made by Robert Wood at Harvard.
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是由哈佛的罗伯特伍德制造的。
13:42
You've got Stickybots that are being made at Stanford.
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你也会看到斯坦福制造的黏性机器人。
13:45
And as you bring these things together,
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把这些放到一起来看，
13:48
as you bring cells, biological tissue engineering and mechanics together,
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把细胞，生物组织工程，和机械工程放到一起，
13:54
you begin to get some really odd questions.
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你开始会发现些非常奇怪的问题
13:57
In the last Olympics, this gentleman,
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去年的奥林匹克运动会上，这位男士，
13:59
who had several world records in the Special Olympics,
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打破了好几项特奥会的世界纪律，
14:03
tried to run in the normal Olympics.
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并尝试参加常规的奥林匹克。
14:05
The only issue with Oscar Pistorius
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关于奥斯卡 皮斯特里斯的问题是
14:07
is he was born without bones in the lower part of his legs.
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他生来腿的下半部分就没有骨头。
14:11
He came within about a second of qualifying.
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他带来另一种评判方式，
14:13
He sued to be allowed to run,
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他上诉要求要求参赛，
14:16
and he won the suit,
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并且胜诉了。
14:18
but didn't qualify by time.
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但当时还没被认证。
14:20
Next Olympics, you can bet that Oscar, or one of Oscar's successors,
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下界奥林匹克，你能打赌是奥斯卡或是奥斯卡的后继者，
14:25
is going to make the time.
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会取得胜利。
14:27
And two or three Olympics after that, they are going to be unbeatable.
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并且在两到三界比赛之后，他们就会变的无可匹敌。
14:30
And as you bring these trends together, and as you think of what it means
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当你把这些趋势放到一起，你开始思考这些意味着什么？
14:35
to take people who are profoundly deaf, who can now begin to hear --
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让完全失聪的人再度听到声音
14:39
I mean, remember the evolution of hearing aids, right?
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记得助听器的演变史吗？
14:42
I mean, your grandparents had these great big cones,
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你的祖父辈使用这些大圆筒，
14:45
and then your parents had these odd boxes
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你的父辈使用这些奇怪的
14:47
that would squawk at odd times during dinner,
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会在吃饭时发出怪声的盒子，
14:49
and now we have these little buds that nobody sees.
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现在我们有了这些没人看的见的小设备。
14:51
And now you have cochlear implants
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目前又有把耳蜗植入
14:53
that go into people's heads and allow the deaf to begin to hear.
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进入人们的脑袋内让失聪的人开始能听见。
14:58
Now, they can't hear as well as you and I can.
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现在，他们不仅能像你我一样聆听。
15:00
But, in 10 or 15 machine generations they will,
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但是在10到15代产品演化后他们将能做到，
15:03
and these are machine generations, not human generations.
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这些是机械的世代，不是人类的世代
15:06
And about two or three years after they can hear as well as you and I can,
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在他们可以像你我一样听得大约2到3年以后，
15:10
they'll be able to hear maybe how bats sing, or how whales talk,
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他们或许能听见蝙蝠如何歌唱，鲸鱼是如何交谈，
15:14
or how dogs talk, and other types of tonal scales.
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狗儿如何聊天，或者其他的声调，
15:17
They'll be able to focus their hearing,
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他们会能够集中他们的听力，
15:19
they'll be able to increase the sensitivity, decrease the sensitivity,
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能够增加敏感度或者降低敏感度，
15:22
do a series of things that we can't do.
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做许多我们不能做的事情。
15:24
And the same thing is happening in eyes.
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同样的事也会发生在视力上。
15:27
This is a group in Germany that's beginning to engineer eyes
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德国有一个小组开始改造眼睛
15:30
so that people who are blind can begin to see light and dark.
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让盲人能开始看见亮暗。
15:34
Very primitive.
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还比较简单。
15:36
And then they'll be able to see shape.
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然后他们会开始看见形状。
15:38
And then they'll be able to see color, and then they'll be able to see in definition,
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接着能看见颜色，后来就是真的看见东西了，
15:41
and one day, they'll see as well as you and I can.
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直到有一天，他们能像你我般看。
15:44
And a couple of years after that, they'll be able to see in ultraviolet,
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过了几年，他们就能看见紫外线了，
15:47
they'll be able to see in infrared, they'll be able to focus their eyes,
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又能看见红外线了，能聚焦视力了，
15:49
they'll be able to come into a microfocus.
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可以在微距上看东西。
15:52
They'll do stuff you and I can't do.
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他们将做你我不能做的事情。
15:55
All of these things are coming together,
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这些事情都汇集到一起，
15:57
and it's a particularly important thing to understand,
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这是一个特别重要的需要大家来理解的事情，
16:01
as we worry about the flames of the present,
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当我们在担心目前的热焰的时候，
16:04
to keep an eye on the future.
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也要放眼未来。
16:07
And, of course, the future is looking back 200 years,
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当然，未来是往回看200年，
16:10
because next week is the 200th anniversary of Darwin's birth.
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因为下周是达尔文诞辰200周年。
16:14
And it's the 150th anniversary of the publication of "The Origin of Species."
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也是“物种起源”出版150周年。
16:20
And Darwin, of course, argued that evolution is a natural state.
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达尔文，当然，认为进化是自然状态。
16:24
It is a natural state in everything that is alive, including hominids.
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是所有生命的自然状态，包括类人生物。
16:30
There have actually been 22 species of hominids
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一共有22种类人物种
16:35
that have been around, have evolved, have wandered in different places,
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它们经过进化并在各处漫游，
16:39
have gone extinct.
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然后灭绝了。
16:41
It is common for hominids to evolve.
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类人进化是很普遍的。
16:46
And that's the reason why, as you look at the hominid fossil record,
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原因是，当你在看类人猿化石纪录的时候，
16:49
erectus, and heidelbergensis, and floresiensis, and Neanderthals,
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直立人，海德堡人，佛罗勒斯人，尼安德特人，
16:57
and Homo sapiens, all overlap.
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以及智人，都有重叠。
17:02
The common state of affairs is to have overlapping versions of hominids,
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这种事的通常得情况就是有重叠类型的类人物种，
17:07
not one.
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而不仅仅就是一种。
17:09
And as you think of the implications of that,
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你在想那些事情的含义时，
17:11
here's a brief history of the universe.
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这里有个宇宙的简史。
17:13
The universe was created 13.7 billion years ago,
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宇宙在137亿年前出现，
17:16
and then you created all the stars, and all the planets,
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接着出现了所有的恒星及行星，
17:18
and all the galaxies, and all the Milky Ways.
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还有星系，银河系。
17:20
And then you created Earth about 4.5 billion years ago,
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地球时45亿年前出现的，
17:23
and then you got life about four billion years ago,
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40亿年后出现了生命，
17:26
and then you got hominids about 0.006 billion years ago,
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600万年前出现的类人猿，
17:30
and then you got our version of hominids about 0.0015 billion years ago.
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我们这样的类人时在150万年前出现的。
17:35
Ta-dah!
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哒哒！
17:37
Maybe the reason for thr creation of the universe,
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或许，宇宙起源的原因
17:39
and all the galaxies, and all the planets, and all the energy,
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以及所有的星系，所有的行星，所有的能量，
17:42
and all the dark energy, and all the rest of stuff
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所有的暗物质以及别的东西
17:44
is to create what's in this room.
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就是为了创造这间房间里的一切。
17:48
Maybe not.
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或许不是。
17:51
That would be a mildly arrogant viewpoint.
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这个观点或许略微有些自大。
17:54
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
17:59
So, if that's not the purpose of the universe, then what's next?
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如果这不是宇宙的意义，那还会是什么？
18:04
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
18:08
I think what we're going to see is we're going to see a different species of hominid.
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我想我们将会看到的是一种不同的类人物种。
18:13
I think we're going to move from a Homo sapiens into a Homo evolutis.
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我们会从智人变成演化人。
18:17
And I think this isn't 1,000 years out.
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我认为这并不是1000年以后的事情。
18:19
I think most of us are going to glance at it,
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我们中的大多数都将会去了解下，
18:22
and our grandchildren are going to begin to live it.
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我们的子孙后代将会这样去生存。
18:24
And a Homo evolutis brings together these three trends
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演化人会将这三种趋势带到一起
18:27
into a hominid that takes direct and deliberate control
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变成一种直接且谨慎地控制
18:30
over the evolution of his species, her species and other species.
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它自身以及它后继物种的进化的类人。
18:35
And that, of course, would be the ultimate reboot.
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当然，那将会是终极的复苏。
18:39
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢。
18:41
(Applause)
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掌声
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Juan Enriquez - FuturistJuan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society.
Why you should listen
A broad thinker who studies the intersections of these fields, Enriquez has a talent for bridging disciplines to build a coherent look ahead. He is the managing director of Excel Venture Management, a life sciences VC firm. He recently published (with Steve Gullans) Evolving Ourselves: How Unnatural Selection and Nonrandom Mutation Are Shaping Life on Earth. The book describes a world where humans increasingly shape their environment, themselves and other species.
Enriquez is a member of the board of Synthetic Genomics, which recently introduced the smallest synthetic living cell. Called “JCVI-syn 3.0,” it has 473 genes (about half the previous smallest cell). The organism would die if one of the genes is removed. In other words, this is the minimum genetic instruction set for a living organism.
Juan Enriquez | Speaker | TED.com