TED2009
Juan Enriquez: The next species of human
Juan Enriquez 談到令人驚訝的新科學
Filmed:
Readability: 3.4
3,584,967 views
即使面對銀行的倒閉, Juan Enriques 認為復甦才要開始. 但這不是政治或是經濟帶起的甦醒. 這會是從科學實驗室帶來更高機能的人體心智. 我們的孩子將會... 非常的不同
Juan Enriquez - Futurist
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society. Full bio
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
There's a great big elephant in the room called the economy.
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經濟是個很重要卻又被忽視的話題
00:16
So let's start talking about that.
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讓我們來聊聊它
00:18
I wanted to give you a current picture of the economy.
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我想讓你們對目前的經濟狀況有個概念
00:21
That's what I have behind myself.
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在我身後這個
00:24
(Laughter)
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(笑聲）
00:27
But of course what we have to remember is this.
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當然，我們要記得這個
00:30
And what you have to think about is,
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然後有意識知道,
00:33
when you're dancing in the flames, what's next?
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當情況危急的時後， 下一步怎麼做
00:36
So what I'm going to try to do in the next 17 and a half minutes
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所以在接下來的17分半中我要做的
00:39
is I'm going to talk first about the flames --
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是先來談談現在的危機--
00:41
where we are in the economy --
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目前的經濟狀況--
00:43
and then I'm going to take three trends
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讓後我將用三個
00:45
that have taken place at TED over the last 25 years
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在TED過去25年裡提到的
00:48
and that will take place in this conference
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然後會出現在這個會談裡的趨勢
00:50
and I will try and bring them together.
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我會試著將它們統整
00:53
And I will try and give you a sense of what the ultimate reboot looks like.
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然後給各位一個最終復甦情形的概況
00:57
Those three trends are
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這三個趨勢是
00:59
the ability to engineer cells,
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細胞工程
01:01
the ability to engineer tissues,
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組織工程
01:03
and robots.
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還有機器人工程
01:05
And somehow it will all make sense.
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大家會看到為什麼
01:07
But anyway, let's start with the economy.
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不過我們先從談經濟開始
01:10
There's a couple of really big problems that are still sitting there.
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有一些很大的問題還是存在
01:13
One is leverage.
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一個是經濟槓桿作用
01:15
And the problem with leverage is
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然後它的問題是
01:17
it makes the U.S. financial system look like this.
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讓美國財務體系變這樣
01:20
(Laughter)
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(笑聲）
01:27
So, a normal commercial bank has nine to 10 times leverage.
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所以，一般的商業銀行十次裡會有九次會受到這個影響
01:30
That means for every dollar you deposit, it loans out about nine or 10.
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這表示你每存1塊錢銀行可以貸款出9到10塊
01:33
A normal investment bank is not a deposit bank,
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在一個普通的投資銀行而非存款銀行
01:36
it's an investment bank;
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這是投資銀行
01:38
it has 15 to 20 times.
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可貸款出15到20倍的錢
01:40
It turns out that B of A in September had 32 times.
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結果顯示美國銀行在九月份是32倍
01:43
And your friendly Citibank had 47 times.
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花旗銀行是47倍
01:46
Oops.
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哇
01:48
That means every bad loan goes bad 47 times over.
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這表示每個壞帳會有47倍的影響
01:52
And that, of course, is the reason why all of you
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然後，當然，這是為什麼在坐各位
01:55
are making such generous and wonderful donations
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做出慷慨的捐獻
01:58
to these nice folks.
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給這個演講
02:03
And as you think about that,
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當你想到這裡
02:05
you've got to wonder: so what do banks have in store for you now?
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你一定好奇：那 (錢都貸款出去了）銀行現在幫你們存了什麼
02:11
(Laughter)
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(笑聲）
02:20
It ain't pretty.
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情況不妙
02:23
The government, meanwhile, has been acting like Santa Claus.
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政府同時, 一直在扮演聖誕老人的角色
02:27
We all love Santa Claus, right?
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我們都喜歡聖誕老人對吧?
02:30
But the problem with Santa Clause is,
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但問題是
02:33
if you look at the mandatory spending of what these folks have been doing
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如果你看到這些人做的事所用到的強制開銷
02:36
and promising folks,
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還有他們給的承諾
02:38
it turned out that in 1967, 38 percent was mandatory spending
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結果變成在1967年, 百分之38是強制開銷
02:43
on what we call "entitlements."
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用在我們所謂的"權益“上
02:46
And then by 2007 it was 68 percent.
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然後到了2007變成百分之68
02:49
And we weren't supposed to run into 100 percent until about 2030.
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在2030年，開銷不應該會變成百分之百
02:54
Except we've been so busy giving away a trillion here, a trillion there,
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這邊一下用了百萬兆， 那邊一下又用了百萬兆
02:57
that we've brought that date of reckoning forward
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所以將預估結果提前
03:00
to about 2017.
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到2017年
03:03
And we thought we were going to be able to lay these debts off on our kids,
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我們認為可以有能力不讓孩子承擔這樣的債務
03:06
but, guess what?
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但是猜猜看
03:08
We're going to start to pay them.
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我們已經開始在還債了
03:10
And the problem with this stuff is, now that the bill's come due,
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問題現在又變成，賬單要到期了
03:12
it turns out Santa isn't quite as cute when it's summertime.
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而聖誕老人在夏季不是那麼可愛
03:16
Right?
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對不對？
03:18
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
03:30
Here's some advice from one of the largest investors in the United States.
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這是美國其中一個最大的投資家提出的一些建議
03:34
This guy runs the China Investment Corporation.
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這個人經營中國的投資集團
03:37
He is the main buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds.
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他是美國國庫卷的主要買者
03:40
And he gave an interview in December.
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在12月時接受訪問
03:43
Here's his first bit of advice.
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這是他給的第一個建議
03:45
And here's his second bit of advice.
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這是第二個
03:50
And, by the way,
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順道一提
03:52
the Chinese Prime Minister reiterated this at Davos last Sunday.
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中國國務總理在上星期日的達沃斯也重述這些要點
03:55
This stuff is getting serious enough
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情況開始不樂觀
03:57
that if we don't start paying attention to the deficit,
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如果我們不開始重視缺失
03:59
we're going to end up losing the dollar.
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我們最後會造成虧損
04:02
And then all bets are off.
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光這個就會帶來嚴重的後果
04:05
Let me show you what it looks like.
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讓大家看看情形會怎麼樣
04:08
I think I can safely say
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我敢說
04:10
that I'm the only trillionaire in this room.
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我是目前這邊的唯一百萬兆富翁
04:14
This is an actual bill.
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這是個的紙鈔
04:16
And it's 10 triliion dollars.
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價值10千萬兆美金
04:19
The only problem with this bill is it's not really worth very much.
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問題是它並不真的直那麼多錢
04:22
That was eight bucks last week, four bucks this week,
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上星期它值8塊, 這星期4塊
04:25
a buck next week.
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下星期只剩1塊了
04:27
And that's what happens to currencies when you don't stand behind them.
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這就是當我們無法支撐匯率時會發生的情況
04:32
So the next time somebody as cute as this shows up on your doorstep,
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所以下次有這麼可愛的人出現在你家門口
04:37
and sometimes this creature's called Chrysler and sometimes Ford and sometimes ... whatever you want --
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有時候它叫做克萊斯勒或是福特或有時後...隨你喜歡叫什麼--
04:44
you've just got to say no.
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你只能拒絕
04:46
And you've got to start banishing a word that's called "entitlement."
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然後你必須開始不在用“權益”這個字
04:50
And the reason we have to do that in the short term
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需要這麼做，在短期來看
04:53
is because we have just run out of cash.
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是因為我們沒錢了
04:56
If you look at the federal budget, this is what it looks like.
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如果你看聯邦政府預算，就是這個樣子
04:59
The orange slice is what's discretionary.
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橘色部份是自由資金
05:02
Everything else is mandated.
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其他都是強制資金
05:05
It makes no difference if we cut out the bridges to Alaska in the overall scheme of things.
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就算斷去通往阿拉斯加的橋整個情形也不會改變
05:08
So what we have to start thinking about doing
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所以我們需要開始著手的
05:11
is capping our medical spending
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是限制醫療支出
05:13
because that's a monster that's simply going to eat the entire budget.
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因為它是個會吞噬整個預算的怪物
05:16
We've got to start thinking about asking people
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我們必須開始
05:19
to retire a little bit later.
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要求大家晚點退休
05:22
If you're 60 to 65 you retire on time.
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60到65歲退休就差不多
05:25
Your 401(k) just got nailed.
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退休金受的影響就不大
05:27
If you're 50 to 60 we want you to work two years more.
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如果你是在50到60歲, 那希望你可以在多工做兩年
05:30
If you're under 50 we want you to work four more years.
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如果你還不到50歲，希望你可以多工做四年
05:33
The reason why that's reasonable is,
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為什麼這麼說合理是因為，
05:36
when your grandparents were given Social Security,
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當你的祖父母得到社會保障時
05:38
they got it at 65 and were expected to check out at 68.
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他們大概65歲開始領到68歲
05:41
Sixty-eight is young today.
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現在68歲算年輕的了
05:44
We've also got to cut the military about three percent a year.
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我們也需要縮減一年3％的軍用預算
05:48
We've got to limit other mandatory spending.
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我們必須限制一些強制開銷
05:50
We've got to quit borrowing as much,
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我們必須停止這麼多的借貸
05:53
because otherwise the interest is going to eat that whole pie.
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不然的話, 利息會佔據整個趨勢
05:56
And we've got to end up with a smaller government.
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然後剩下小規模的政府
05:58
And if we don't start changing this trend line,
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如果不開始改變這個趨勢
06:01
we are going to lose the dollar
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經濟就會受到影響
06:03
and start to look like Iceland.
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變得像冰島一樣
06:05
I got what you're thinking.
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我知道你們在想什麼
06:08
This is going to happen when hell freezes over.
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這一切除非地獄凍結了才會發生
06:13
But let me remind you this December it did snow in Vegas.
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但是讓我提醒你, 拉斯維加斯今年十二月的確下雪了
06:18
(Laughter)
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(笑聲）
06:23
Here's what happens if you don't address this stuff.
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如果你們再不關注這些議題，以下這樣的事就會發生
06:26
So, Japan had a fiscal real estate crisis
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日本在80年代的時後
06:29
back in the late '80s.
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發生過地產財務危機
06:31
And its 225 largest companies today
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現今225間最大的公司
06:34
are worth one quarter of what they were 18 years ago.
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價值只有十八年前的四分之一
06:37
We don't fix this now,
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現在我們不重視問題
06:39
how would you like to see a Dow 3,500 in 2026?
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你想在2026年看見道瓊指數3,500嗎？
06:42
Because that's the consequence of not dealing with this stuff.
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因為那就是現在不重視這些問題的後果
06:45
And unless you want this person
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除非你要這個人
06:48
to not just become the CFO of Florida, but the United States,
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不只是當佛羅里達的財務長，還是整個美國的財務長
06:51
we'd better deal with this stuff.
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我們現在最好開始重視這些問題
06:54
That's the short term. That's the flame part.
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這是短期來看. 比較棘手的部份
06:57
That's the financial crisis.
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財務方面的危機
06:59
Now, right behind the financial crisis there's a second and bigger wave
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現在， 跟在財務危機後面的第二波更大的浪潮
07:03
that we need to talk about.
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我們必須來談談
07:04
That wave is much larger, much more powerful,
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這個問題更強殺傷力更大
07:06
and that's of course the wave of technology.
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當然，就是科技浪潮
07:09
And what's really important in this stuff is,
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這個重要的地方是
07:11
as we cut, we also have to grow.
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我們縮減預算的同時也必須要成長
07:13
Among other things, because startup companies
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別的先不提，新起的公司
07:16
are .02 percent of U.S. GDP investmentm
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佔據美國國民所得投資的 0.02％
07:18
and they're about 17.8 percent of output.
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帶來17.8%的出產
07:23
It's groups like that in this room that generate the future of the U.S. economy.
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像一匹帶領美國未來經濟的人聚集在一起
07:26
And that's what we've got to keep growing.
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而這就是我們必須繼續成長的方向
07:28
We don't have to keep growing these bridges to nowhere.
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我們不必毫無目標的發展
07:32
So let's bring a romance novelist into this conversation.
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所以現在我們把浪漫新主義者帶進來
07:38
And that's where these three trends come together.
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這就是三波趨勢匯集的地方
07:43
That's where the ability to engineer microbes,
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微生物工程
07:46
the ability to engineer tissues,
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組織工程
07:48
and the ability to engineer robots
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和機器人工程
07:50
begin to lead to a reboot.
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將帶領復甦
07:52
And let me recap some of the stuff you've seen.
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讓我重述一下你們看過的東西
07:54
Craig Venter showed up last year
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去年Craig Venter來過
07:56
and showed you the first fully programmable cell that acts like hardware
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展示給大家看到第一個可以完整編程, 運作起來像是電腦硬體的細胞
07:58
where you can insert DNA and have it boot up as a different species.
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你可以植入DNA, 並將它驅動行成不同的生物
08:01
In parallel, the folks at MIT
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在這同時，MIT的人
08:04
have been building a standard registry of biological parts.
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已經開始建立生物器官的標準制式
08:07
So think of it as a Radio Shack for biology.
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把它想成是給生物學的Radio Shack (美國電子物件零售商）
08:10
You can go out and get your proteins, your RNA, your DNA, whatever.
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你可以出去買到自己的蛋白質，RNA, DNA, 等等
08:13
And start building stuff.
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然後開始組裝你要的東西
08:16
In 2006 they brought together high school students and college students
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在2006年他們聚集高中生和大專院校學生
08:19
and started to build these little odd creatures.
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開始做這些小生物
08:21
They just happened to be alive instead of circuit boards.
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它們活起來了而並非只是電路板
08:24
Here was one of the first things they built.
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這是其中一個他們做的東西
08:27
So, cells have this cycle.
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細胞有個循環
08:29
First they don't grow.
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一開始它們不會長
08:31
Then they grow exponentially.
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然後就一下長很快
08:33
Then they stop growing.
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然後就不會停止生長了
08:35
Graduate students wanted a way of telling which stage they were in.
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研究生想找到方法知道細胞的成長階段
08:38
So they engineered these cells
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所以他們做了這樣的細胞工程
08:40
so that when they're growing in the exponential phase,
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當細胞急速成長的時後
08:42
they would smell like wintergreen.
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會聞起來像冬青樹
08:44
And when they stopped growing they would smell like bananas.
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當停止生長的時後會聞起來像香蕉
08:47
And you could tell very easily when your experiment was working
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然後實驗者就可以很容易知道哪個實驗
08:50
and wasn't, and where it was in the phase.
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是否成功了，然後在什麼階段
08:53
This got a bit more complicated two years later.
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這個兩年之後開始變得複雜一些
08:56
Twenty-one countries came together. Dozens of teams.
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21個國家，很多的團體聚集在一起
08:58
They started competing.
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開始互相比賽
09:00
The team from Rice University started to engineer the substance in red wine
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從Rice University 開始培養改造
09:05
that makes red wine good for you
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紅酒裡對人體有益處的物質
09:07
into beer.
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轉到啤酒裡
09:10
So you take resveratrol and you put it into beer.
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所以你可以提煉出葡萄中的抗氧化物質然後放到啤酒裡
09:14
Of course, one of the judges is wandering by, and he goes,
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當然，其中一個競賽評審經過就說
09:17
"Wow! Cancer-fighting beer! There is a God."
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"哇, 抗癌的啤酒！ 上帝真的存在！"
09:21
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
09:24
The team from Taiwan was a little bit more ambitious.
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從台灣來的團隊比較有野心
09:27
They tried to engineer bacterias in such a way
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他們想將微生物變成
09:30
that they would act as your kidneys.
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可以有腎臟的功能
09:33
Four years ago, I showed you this picture.
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四年前, 我讓你們看過這個圖片
09:36
And people oohed and ahhed,
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大家好驚奇
09:38
because Cliff Tabin had been able to grow an extra wing on a chicken.
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因為Cliff Tabin 可以讓雞多長出翅膀
09:41
And that was very cool stuff back then.
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在當時是很酷的東西
09:44
But now moving from bacterial engineering to tissue engineering,
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但是現在從微生物工程道組織工程
09:47
let me show you what's happened in that period of time.
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我讓大家看看這個階段發生了什麼
09:50
Two years ago, you saw this creature.
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兩年前，你們看到這個生物
09:53
An almost-extinct animal from Xochimilco, Mexico
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一個從墨西哥 Xochimilco 差不多絕種的動物
09:56
called an axolotl
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叫做 axolotl（白化六角恐龍 / 墨西哥蠑螈）
09:58
that can re-generate its limbs.
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牠可以自生臂膀
10:00
You can freeze half its heart. It regrows.
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你把牠一半的心臟冷凍起來, 它會長出來
10:02
You can freeze half the brain. It regrows.
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你把牠一半的腦子冷凍起來，它會長出來
10:04
It's almost like leaving Congress.
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很像國會
10:06
(Laughter)
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(笑聲）
10:12
But now, you don't have to have the animal itself to regenerate,
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但是現在，你不須要這樣的動物來自我恢復
10:15
because you can build cloned mice molars in Petri dishes.
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因為你可以在培養皿中複製老鼠的臼齒
10:21
And, of course if you can build mice molars in Petri dishes,
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當然，如果你可以在培養皿中複製老鼠的臼齒
10:25
you can grow human molars in Petri dishes.
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人類的牙齒也可以
10:28
This should not surprise you, right?
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你們應該不覺得有什麼驚奇的對吧?
10:30
I mean, you're born with no teeth.
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我意思是說, 你天生就沒牙齒
10:32
You give away all your teeth to the tooth fairy.
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牙齒長出來後都給牙齒精靈
10:35
You re-grow a set of teeth.
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重長新的牙齒
10:37
But then if you lose one of those second set of teeth, they don't regrow,
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但是如果第二匹長出的牙齒掉了，它們就不會再長了
10:40
unless, if you're a lawyer.
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除非, 你是律師
10:42
(Laughter)
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(笑聲）
10:46
But, of course, for most of us,
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但是，當然，對大部份其他人來說
10:49
we know how to grow teeth, and therefore we can take adult stem teeth,
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我們知道牙齒怎麼長，所以可以取成人的牙齒幹細胞
10:52
put them on a biodegradable mold, re-grow a tooth,
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放入生物培養皿重新長牙
10:55
and simply implant it.
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然後植牙
10:56
And we can do it with other things.
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我們也可以在別的東西上做同樣的事
10:59
So, a Spanish woman who was dying of T.B. had a donor trachea,
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所以，假設一個因肺結核生命垂危的西班牙裔的女子得到一個捐贈的氣管
11:04
they took all the cells off the trachea,
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他們將氣管的細胞全部取出
11:06
they spraypainted her stem cells onto that cartilage.
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然後在軟骨上鋪上她的幹細胞
11:09
She regrew her own trachea,
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她自生自己的氣管
11:11
and 72 hours later it was implanted.
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72小時後植入了
11:14
She's now running around with her kids.
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她現在快樂地和孩子們玩樂
11:16
This is going on in Tony Atala's lab in Wake Forest
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這是在Tony Atala於Wake Forest的實驗室發生的
11:19
where he is re-growing ears for injured soldiers,
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在那邊他幫忙受傷的士兵重生耳朵
11:22
and he's also re-growing bladders.
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也在做膀胱的生長
11:26
So there are now nine women walking around Boston
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現今有九位女士在Boston
11:29
with re-grown bladders,
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有著重新生長的膀胱
11:31
which is much more pleasant than walking around with a whole bunch of plastic bags
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比下半生都要帶著塑膠袋子 (尿帶）四處走動
11:33
for the rest of your life.
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感覺好太多了
11:35
This is kind of getting boring, right?
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開始有點無聊了嗎？
11:38
I mean, you understand where this story's going.
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我是說，你知道故事演變的方向
11:40
But, I mean it gets more interesting.
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但越來越有趣的是
11:42
Last year, this group was able to take all the cells off a heart,
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去年，這群人可以移除所有心臟細胞
11:46
leaving just the cartilage.
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只留下軟骨
11:49
Then, they sprayed stem cells onto that heart, from a mouse.
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然後，將心臟鋪滿老鼠的幹細胞
11:51
Those stem cells self-organized, and that heart started to beat.
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幹細胞自我組織， 心臟開始跳動了
11:55
Life happens.
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生命出現了
11:59
This may be one of the ultimate papers.
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這應該是最近期的發表的文章
12:02
This was done in Japan and in the U.S., published at the same time,
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在日本和美國同步發表
12:05
and it rebooted skin cells into stem cells, last year.
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然後在去年將皮膚細胞轉成幹細胞
12:10
That meant that you can take the stuff right here,
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那表示你可以就這樣從這邊拿東西出來
12:13
and turn it into almost anything in your body.
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讓後把它變成身體的任何一部份
12:15
And this is becoming common, it's moving very quickly,
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這將越來越普遍, 這樣的技術發展非常快
12:18
it's moving in a whole series of places.
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朝向一系列的領域發展
12:22
Third trend: robots.
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第三個趨勢: 機器人
12:25
Those of us of a certain age grew up expecting that by now
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我們這個年代的人生長在期待
12:28
we would have Rosie the Robot from "The Jetsons" in our house.
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家裡會有"傑森一家“中的機器人Rosie
12:32
And all we've got is a Roomba.
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但是我們只有Roomba (自動地板清潔器)
12:35
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
12:38
We also thought we'd have this robot to warn us of danger.
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我們也以為會有這樣的機器人幫我們預警
12:42
Didn't happen.
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也沒發生
12:44
And these were robots engineered for a flat world, right?
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這些是機器人是製造用在平穩的陸地上對吧?
12:47
So, Rosie runs around on skates
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所以, Rosie穿著溜冰鞋跑來跑去
12:49
and the other one ran on flat threads.
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然後另一個在平路上跑
12:52
If you don't have a flat world, that's not good,
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如果地都不平就糟糕了
12:54
which is why the robot's we're designing today are a little different.
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這是為什麼現今的機器人做得有點不一樣
13:00
This is Boston Dynamics' "BigDog."
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這是Boston Dynamic的" BigDog."
13:05
And this is about as close as you can get to a physical Turing test.
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這是你可以看到最接近現實物質的圖靈試驗
13:08
O.K., so let me remind you, a Turing test is where you've got a wall,
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好,讓我備註一下, 圖靈試驗是當你有一道牆
13:12
you're talking to somebody on the other side of the wall,
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你在牆的另一邊說話
13:14
and when you don't know if that thing is human or animal --
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當你不知道說話對象是人類還是動物 --
13:17
that's when computers have reached human intelligence.
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就表示電腦已經達到人類的智力了
13:21
This is not an intelligence Turing rest,
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這個不是智力的圖靈試驗
13:24
but this is as close as you can get to a physical Turing test.
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這個已經是最接近實物的圖靈試驗
13:27
And this stuff is moving very quickly,
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這個東西移動的很快
13:29
and by the way, that thing can carry about 350 pounds of weight.
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順便提一下, 這個東西可以承載350磅的重量
13:34
These are not the only interesting robots.
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這不是唯一一個有趣的機器人
13:37
You've also got flies, the size of flies,
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我們也有蒼蠅, 跟真的蒼蠅大小一樣
13:39
that are being made by Robert Wood at Harvard.
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哈佛大學的Robert Wood做的
13:42
You've got Stickybots that are being made at Stanford.
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我們還有在Stanford做的Stickybots
13:45
And as you bring these things together,
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當你把這些東西聚集在一起
13:48
as you bring cells, biological tissue engineering and mechanics together,
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同時加入細胞, 生物組織工程和機械工程結合一起
13:54
you begin to get some really odd questions.
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你會開始發現有一些奇怪的疑問
13:57
In the last Olympics, this gentleman,
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在上一次的奧運, 這位
13:59
who had several world records in the Special Olympics,
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打破很多項特殊奧運世界紀錄的先生
14:03
tried to run in the normal Olympics.
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試著在一般的奧運競賽跑
14:05
The only issue with Oscar Pistorius
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Oscar Pistorius 唯一的問題是
14:07
is he was born without bones in the lower part of his legs.
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他天生腳的下半部就沒有骨頭
14:11
He came within about a second of qualifying.
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他想到一種讓他合格參加比賽的方式
14:13
He sued to be allowed to run,
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法律訴訟參加跑步
14:16
and he won the suit,
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然後勝訴了
14:18
but didn't qualify by time.
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但是並沒有及時通過省核
14:20
Next Olympics, you can bet that Oscar, or one of Oscar's successors,
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下一次奧運會, 你可以打賭是Oscar
14:25
is going to make the time.
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還是他的後繼者會及時趕上比賽
14:27
And two or three Olympics after that, they are going to be unbeatable.
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兩三次奧運會之後, 他們就無敵了
14:30
And as you bring these trends together, and as you think of what it means
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當你把所有的趨勢整合一起, 然後想想它的意義
14:35
to take people who are profoundly deaf, who can now begin to hear --
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讓一個完全失去聽力的人可以聽見
14:39
I mean, remember the evolution of hearing aids, right?
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我是說, 記得助聽器的演變嗎?
14:42
I mean, your grandparents had these great big cones,
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你的祖父母有那樣的大圓筒
14:45
and then your parents had these odd boxes
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然後到你父母的年代有這樣
14:47
that would squawk at odd times during dinner,
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吃飯的時候會發出聲的怪盒子
14:49
and now we have these little buds that nobody sees.
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然後現在我門有人看不到的小東西
14:51
And now you have cochlear implants
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在來是耳蝸的植入
14:53
that go into people's heads and allow the deaf to begin to hear.
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可以進入人腦讓聽不見的人再次有聽力
14:58
Now, they can't hear as well as you and I can.
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現在他們的聽力可以跟你我一樣好
15:00
But, in 10 or 15 machine generations they will,
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但是在10-15個機器時代後
15:03
and these are machine generations, not human generations.
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這些都是機器人做的, 而非人做的
15:06
And about two or three years after they can hear as well as you and I can,
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他們可以聽見大約再過2, 3年
15:10
they'll be able to hear maybe how bats sing, or how whales talk,
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說不定就可以學會蝙蝠的聲音或是鯨魚怎麼溝通的
15:14
or how dogs talk, and other types of tonal scales.
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或是狗怎麼說話, 還有其他種音調
15:17
They'll be able to focus their hearing,
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他們可以集中注意在聽力
15:19
they'll be able to increase the sensitivity, decrease the sensitivity,
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可以增加或減少強度
15:22
do a series of things that we can't do.
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做很多我們可以做的事
15:24
And the same thing is happening in eyes.
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同樣的東西發生在視力
15:27
This is a group in Germany that's beginning to engineer eyes
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這邊有一個德國的團隊開始在製造眼睛
15:30
so that people who are blind can begin to see light and dark.
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看不見的人可以開始分辨明暗
15:34
Very primitive.
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非常基本的
15:36
And then they'll be able to see shape.
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他們開始可以看到形狀
15:38
And then they'll be able to see color, and then they'll be able to see in definition,
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可以看見顏色, 而且看得很清晰
15:41
and one day, they'll see as well as you and I can.
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然後有一天, 他們會可以看見像你我看到的東西
15:44
And a couple of years after that, they'll be able to see in ultraviolet,
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再過幾年他們就能看見紫外線光
15:47
they'll be able to see in infrared, they'll be able to focus their eyes,
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可以看見紅外線, 可以焦距視力
15:49
they'll be able to come into a microfocus.
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可以在微距看東西
15:52
They'll do stuff you and I can't do.
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他們可以做到你我都做不了的東西
15:55
All of these things are coming together,
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這些匯集在一起
15:57
and it's a particularly important thing to understand,
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這是一個特別重要需要大家理解的事
16:01
as we worry about the flames of the present,
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當我們現在擔心眼前的炙手問題時
16:04
to keep an eye on the future.
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要關注未來
16:07
And, of course, the future is looking back 200 years,
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當然, 未來是往後看200年
16:10
because next week is the 200th anniversary of Darwin's birth.
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因為下個星期是達爾文200歲的生日
16:14
And it's the 150th anniversary of the publication of "The Origin of Species."
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也是物種原始發表的150年紀年日
16:20
And Darwin, of course, argued that evolution is a natural state.
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達爾文認為進化是自然的狀態
16:24
It is a natural state in everything that is alive, including hominids.
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是任何有生命的生物, 包括人類的自然狀態
16:30
There have actually been 22 species of hominids
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有22種類人物種
16:35
that have been around, have evolved, have wandered in different places,
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存在, 演化, 分佈在不同的地方
16:39
have gone extinct.
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他們已經絕種了
16:41
It is common for hominids to evolve.
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所以類人生物進化是很常見的
16:46
And that's the reason why, as you look at the hominid fossil record,
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這是為什麼當你看到人類化石的紀錄
16:49
erectus, and heidelbergensis, and floresiensis, and Neanderthals,
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直立人, 海德堡人, 佛羅勒斯人還有尼安德特人,
16:57
and Homo sapiens, all overlap.
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智人, 都有重複特徵
17:02
The common state of affairs is to have overlapping versions of hominids,
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這通常表示有重複類型的類人物種
17:07
not one.
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不是只有一種
17:09
And as you think of the implications of that,
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當你想想背後的涵意,
17:11
here's a brief history of the universe.
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這是簡短的宇宙歷史
17:13
The universe was created 13.7 billion years ago,
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宇宙是137億年前產生的
17:16
and then you created all the stars, and all the planets,
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然後有恆星跟行星
17:18
and all the galaxies, and all the Milky Ways.
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所有的星系和銀河系
17:20
And then you created Earth about 4.5 billion years ago,
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然後地球是45億產生的
17:23
and then you got life about four billion years ago,
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40億年後出現生命
17:26
and then you got hominids about 0.006 billion years ago,
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600萬年前出現類人猿
17:30
and then you got our version of hominids about 0.0015 billion years ago.
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我們這樣的人類在150萬年前出現
17:35
Ta-dah!
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Ta-dah!
17:37
Maybe the reason for thr creation of the universe,
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或許, 宇宙起源的原因
17:39
and all the galaxies, and all the planets, and all the energy,
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還有這些星系跟行星跟能源
17:42
and all the dark energy, and all the rest of stuff
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所以暗物質還有其他東西
17:44
is to create what's in this room.
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是為了創造這個房間裡的所有東西
17:48
Maybe not.
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或許不是
17:51
That would be a mildly arrogant viewpoint.
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這樣的觀點或許有些自大
17:54
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
17:59
So, if that's not the purpose of the universe, then what's next?
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如果這不是宇宙的意義那會是什麼?
18:04
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
18:08
I think what we're going to see is we're going to see a different species of hominid.
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我想我們將看的是不同的類人物種
18:13
I think we're going to move from a Homo sapiens into a Homo evolutis.
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我想我們會從智人變成演化人
18:17
And I think this isn't 1,000 years out.
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我認為這不是1000年後的事情
18:19
I think most of us are going to glance at it,
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大多數的我們都只能看到一下子
18:22
and our grandchildren are going to begin to live it.
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我們的子孫將會活在那樣的環境裡
18:24
And a Homo evolutis brings together these three trends
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演化人將三個趨勢聚集在一起
18:27
into a hominid that takes direct and deliberate control
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變成一種直接對
18:30
over the evolution of his species, her species and other species.
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後來的類人演變的控制
18:35
And that, of course, would be the ultimate reboot.
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到時後, 當然, 會是終極的復甦
18:39
Thank you very much.
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謝謝
18:41
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Juan Enriquez - FuturistJuan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society.
Why you should listen
A broad thinker who studies the intersections of these fields, Enriquez has a talent for bridging disciplines to build a coherent look ahead. He is the managing director of Excel Venture Management, a life sciences VC firm. He recently published (with Steve Gullans) Evolving Ourselves: How Unnatural Selection and Nonrandom Mutation Are Shaping Life on Earth. The book describes a world where humans increasingly shape their environment, themselves and other species.
Enriquez is a member of the board of Synthetic Genomics, which recently introduced the smallest synthetic living cell. Called “JCVI-syn 3.0,” it has 473 genes (about half the previous smallest cell). The organism would die if one of the genes is removed. In other words, this is the minimum genetic instruction set for a living organism.
Juan Enriquez | Speaker | TED.com