ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ian Goldin - Economist, development visionary
Ian Goldin is director of the Oxford Martin School. Through the school's program of research, collaboration and education, he's powering new, cross-disciplinary thinking about global problems from the near and far future.

Why you should listen

Take a look at Ian Goldin's jam-packed CV and you'll see why he was appointed the first Director of Oxford University's new think tank-cum-research center, the 21st Century School, later renamed the Oxford Martin School: Goldin battled apartheid in his native South Africa, served as a development adviser to Nelson Mandela and, as the VP of the World Bank, led collaborations with the UN on global development strategy. He is the author of 19 books, including Exceptional People: How Migration Shaped our World and Will Define our Future (Princeton University Press, 2011), Divided Nations: Why global governance is failing and what we can do about it (Oxford University Press, 2013) and The Butterfly Defect: How globalization creates systemic risks, and what to do about it (Princeton University Press, 2014).

At Oxford Martin School, with a diverse brigade of over 200 top researchers from the hard and social sciences, Goldin is bringing fresh thinking to bear on the big, looming issues of the next 100 years: climate change, disruptive technological advancements, aging, bio-ethics, infectious disease, poverty, political conflict.

More profile about the speaker
Ian Goldin | Speaker | TED.com
TEDGlobal 2009

Ian Goldin: Navigating our global future

伊恩‧戈爾丁:航向未來

Filmed:
1,197,823 views

當全球化和技術的進步讓我們航向一個整合的未來的同時,伊恩•戈爾丁 警告大家可能得到不平均的利益。不過,他表示,如果我們能意識到這個危險,我們也許還可以改善大家的生活。
- Economist, development visionary
Ian Goldin is director of the Oxford Martin School. Through the school's program of research, collaboration and education, he's powering new, cross-disciplinary thinking about global problems from the near and far future. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:15
The future未來, as we know it, is very unpredictable不可預料的.
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眾所皆知 未來難以預測
00:19
The best最好 minds頭腦 in the best最好 institutions機構
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頂尖研究機構中的佼佼者
00:21
generally通常 get it wrong錯誤.
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還常會犯錯
00:23
This is in technology技術. This is in the area of politics政治,
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技術領域有過前例 (1958年IBM總裁:電腦根本沒有市場) 政治領域亦然
00:27
where pundits專家, the CIA中央情報局, MIMI6 always get it wrong錯誤.
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連智者、中情局、軍情六處 都會出錯 (07年政論名嘴:歐巴馬總統夢無望)
00:30
And it's clearly明確地 in the area of finance金融.
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財經領域更是前科累累 (07年IMF: 整體風險前景似乎比過去半年低)
00:33
With institutions機構 established既定 to think about the future未來,
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有些機構的工作是預測未來
00:35
the IMF國際貨幣基金組織, the BISBIS, the Financial金融 Stability穩定性 Forum論壇, couldn't不能 see what was coming未來.
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但IMF,BIS或金融穩定論壇 都做不到
00:39
Over 20,000 economists經濟學家
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超過兩萬名經濟學家一起動腦
00:41
whose誰的 job工作 it is, competitive競爭的 entry條目 to get there,
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應該想得出辦法脫離困境
00:43
couldn't不能 see what was happening事件.
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卻看不清前路
00:45
Globalization全球化 is getting得到 more complex複雜.
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全球化愈來愈複雜
00:47
And this change更改 is getting得到 more rapid快速.
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越來越迅速
00:49
The future未來 will be more unpredictable不可預料的.
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未來會變得更難以預料
00:51
Urbanization城市化, integration積分,
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都市化 區域整合 (全球化)
00:53
coming未來 together一起, leads引線 to a new renaissance再生.
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將一起型塑新的文藝復興時代
00:56
It did this a thousand years年份 ago.
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就像一千多年前發生過的一樣
00:58
The last 40 years年份 have been extraordinary非凡 times.
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過去40年意義非凡
01:01
Life expectancy期待 has gone走了 up by about 25 years年份.
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平均壽命提升了大約25年
01:04
It took from the Stone Age年齡 to achieve實現 that.
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這是從石器時代累積至今的成果
01:07
Income收入 has gone走了 up for a majority多數 of the world's世界 population人口,
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收入提升 大部分人口生活改善
01:09
despite儘管 the population人口 going up by about two billion十億 people over this period.
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但人口數同時也增加了20億
01:14
And illiteracy文盲 has gone走了 down, from a half to about a quarter25美分硬幣 of the people on Earth地球.
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文盲人數 從全人口的1/2下降至1/4
01:17
A huge巨大 opportunity機會, unleashing肆行 of new potential潛在
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這是難得的機會 充滿無限可能
01:20
for innovation革新, for development發展.
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創新與發展皆大有可為
01:22
But there is an underbelly軟肋.
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但全球化也有罩門
01:24
There are two Achilles'阿基里斯 heels腳跟 of globalization全球化.
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兩個致命的弱點
01:27
There is the Achilles'阿基里斯 heel腳跟 of growing生長 inequality不等式 --
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一個是日益嚴重的不平等 (國家間的不平等)
01:29
those that are left out, those that feel angry憤怒,
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那些沒有享受到全球化益處的人
01:32
those that are not participating參與. Globalization全球化
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憤怒漸增 因為
01:34
has not been inclusive包括的.
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全球化的果實不是人人有份
01:36
The second第二 Achilles'阿基里斯 heel腳跟 is complexity複雜 --
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第二個是複雜性
01:39
a growing生長 fragility脆弱性, a growing生長 brittleness脆性.
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全球體制越來越脆弱易碎
01:43
What happens發生 in one place地點 very quickly很快 affects影響 everything else其他.
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遷一髮而動全局
01:46
This is a systemic系統的 risk風險, systemic系統的 shock休克.
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這是系統性的風險
01:49
We've我們已經 seen看到 it in the financial金融 crisis危機. We've我們已經 seen看到 it in the pandemic流感大流行 flu流感.
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金融風暴席捲、流感蔓延 都是明證
01:52
It will become成為 virulent有毒 and it's something we have to build建立 resilience彈性 against反對.
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唯有堅強的韌性才能讓我們生存
01:56
A lot of this is driven驅動 by what's happening事件 in technology技術.
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這樣的發展大部分起因於科技
01:59
There have been huge巨大 leaps飛躍. There will be a million-fold百萬倍 improvement起色
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科技日新月異 以後只會發展更快
02:02
in what you can get for the same相同 price價錢
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付出同樣的成本 資訊處裡的速度
02:04
in computing計算 by 2030.
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在2030年會快100萬倍
02:06
That's what the experience經驗 of the last 20 years年份 has been.
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這是過去20年的經驗
02:08
It will continue繼續.
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這種趨勢還會持續下去
02:10
Our computers電腦, our systems系統 will be as primitive原始
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未來 今天的電腦系統 會顯得粗糙
02:13
as the Apollo's阿波羅的 are for today今天.
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會像今天看阿波羅太空梭一樣
02:15
Our mobile移動 phones手機 are more powerful強大 than the total Apollo阿波羅 space空間 engine發動機.
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現在的手機已經超越太空梭引擎
02:18
Our mobile移動 phones手機 are more powerful強大 than
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還不只如此 現在的手機
02:20
some of the strongest最強 computers電腦 of 20 years年份 ago.
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比20年前某些最強的電腦還強大
02:22
So what will this do?
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這代表什麼?
02:24
It will create創建 huge巨大 opportunities機會 in technology技術.
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無數機會有待科技業者開發
02:27
Miniaturization微型化 as well.
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微型化也是一樣
02:29
There will be invisible無形 capacity容量. Invisible無形 capacity容量 in our bodies身體,
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看不見的東西現在也充滿機會
02:32
in our brains大腦, and in the air空氣.
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遍佈在人體、人腦和空氣中
02:34
This is a dust灰塵 mite on a nanoreplicananoreplica.
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這隻塵蟎 是奈米科技的複製品
02:37
This sort分類 of ability能力 to do everything in new ways方法 unleashes解開 potential潛在,
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老調新唱的能力 可以激發潛能
02:41
not least最小 in the area of medicine醫學.
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在醫學或任何其他領域都是如此
02:43
This is a stem cell細胞 that we've我們已經 developed發達 here in Oxford牛津,
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這個幹細胞 是在牛津發展而成的
02:46
from an embryonic胚胎 stem cell細胞.
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利用胚胎幹細胞
02:48
We can develop發展 any part部分 of the body身體.
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可以培育出身體的任何部位
02:50
Increasingly日益, over time, this will be possible可能 from our own擁有 skin皮膚 --
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以後 我們可以用自己的皮膚
02:53
able能夠 to replicate複製 parts部分 of the body身體.
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來複製身體其他的部位
02:55
Fantastic奇妙 potential潛在 for regenerative再生 medicine醫學.
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這是再生醫學亟待開發的領域
02:57
I don't think there will be a Special特別 Olympics奧運會 long after 2030,
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身障奧運會2030年之後可能停辦
03:01
because of this capacity容量 to regenerate再生 parts部分 of the body身體.
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因為任何生理上的損傷都能修復
03:04
But the question is, "Who will have it?"
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但問題是「誰能享有這一切?」
03:06
The other major重大的 development發展 is going to be
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另一個重要發展
03:08
in the area of what can happen發生 in genetics遺傳學.
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是基因領域的發展
03:10
The capacity容量 to create創建, as this mouse老鼠 has been genetically基因 modified改性,
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我們有能力把老鼠的基因改造 (比火車頭還厲害?超級鼠 vs 一般鼠)
03:16
something which哪一個 goes three times faster更快,
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讓牠跑得比一般老鼠快三倍 (後面:一般鼠 前面:超級鼠) (時速:20公尺/分鐘)
03:18
lasts持續 for three times longer, we could produce生產,
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壽命比一般老鼠長三倍
03:20
as this mouse老鼠 can, to the age年齡 of our equivalent當量 of 80 years年份,
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活到相當於人類80歲的年齡
03:24
using運用 about the same相同 amount of food餐飲.
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卻只要用同樣份量的食物餵養 (一般鼠出局)
03:27
But will this only be available可得到 for the super rich豐富,
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(總距離:0.2公里) 但是 能享受這些益處的
03:29
for those that can afford給予 it? Are we headed當家 for a new eugenics優生學?
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只有富人嗎? 這是新的優生學嗎?
03:32
Will only those that are able能夠 to afford給予 it
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只有那些負擔得起的人
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be able能夠 to be this super race種族 of the future未來?
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能在未來成為超級種族嗎?(一小時後 超級鼠耐力依舊...)
03:38
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
03:39
So the big question for us is,
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所以當前最大的問題是
03:41
"How do we manage管理 this technological技術性 change更改?"
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「我們如何因應科技上的改變?」
03:43
How do we ensure確保 that it creates創建
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我們如何確保 在未來
03:45
a more inclusive包括的 technology技術,
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能有人人可利用的科技
03:47
a technology技術 which哪一個 means手段
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這樣的科技
03:50
that not only as we grow增長 older舊的,
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不只在我們年歲漸長時 (人口老化是歐洲的最大問題)
03:52
that we can also grow增長 wiser聰明, and that we're able能夠 to support支持
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讓我們更有智慧 也讓我們有能力
03:54
the populations人群 of the future未來?
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扶養未來的人口
03:56
One of the most dramatic戲劇性 manifestations表現 of these improvements改進
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眾多進步中 最顯著的例子
03:59
will be moving移動 from population人口 pyramids金字塔
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就是人口金字塔 (1950到2030年義大利人口結構圖)
04:01
to what we might威力 term術語 population人口 coffins棺材.
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可能會變成所謂的人口棺材
04:04
There is unlikely不會 to be a pension養老金
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退休金或是退休年齡
04:06
or a retirement退休 age年齡 in 2030.
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在2030年都可能不復存在
04:09
These will be redundant concepts概念. And this isn't only something of the West西.
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這些觀念 東西方都覺得不合時宜
04:12
The most dramatic戲劇性 changes變化 will be the skyscraper摩天大樓
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最戲劇的改變是 (1970至2030年 中國人口結構圖)
04:15
type類型 of new pyramids金字塔
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摩天大樓式的新金字塔
04:17
that will take place地點 in China中國 and in many許多 other countries國家.
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在中國跟其他許多國家出現
04:20
So forget忘記 about retirements退休 if you're young年輕.
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因此別期待退休了 年輕人
04:22
Forget忘記 about pensions養老金. Think about life and where it's going to be going.
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別指望退休金 多想想人生的方向
04:25
Of course課程, migration移民 will become成為 even more important重要.
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當然 移民會變得更重要
04:28
The war戰爭 on talent天賦, the need to attract吸引 people
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人才爭奪戰中 網羅的對象
04:30
at all skill技能 ranges範圍,
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各種專長的人才都包括
04:32
to push us around in our wheelchairs輪椅,
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需要推輪椅的看護
04:34
but also to drive駕駛 our economies經濟. Our innovation革新 will be vital重要.
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也需要經濟導航者。創意將是關鍵
04:37
The employment僱用 in the rich豐富 countries國家
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就業狀況 在富裕國家 (就業人口預測)
04:39
will go down from about 800
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會從8億人
04:41
to about 700 million百萬 of these people.
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降到7億人
04:43
This would imply意味著 a massive大規模的 leap飛躍 in migration移民.
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這表示移民人數會大增
04:45
So the concerns關注, the xenophobic排外 concerns關注 of today今天,
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所以排外人士
04:48
of migration移民, will be turned轉身 on their head,
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對移民的擔憂 必須改變
04:50
as we search搜索 for people to help us sort分類 out
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因為我們需要人力 來解決
04:53
our pensions養老金 and our economies經濟 in the future未來.
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退休金以及未來經濟的問題
04:55
And then, the systemic系統的 risks風險.
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再來 是系統性風險
04:57
We understand理解 that these will become成為 much more virulent有毒,
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我們了解 這些風險將會日益嚴重
05:00
that what we see today今天
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今天看到的
05:02
is this interweaving交織 of societies社會, of systems系統,
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是息息相關的社會體系
05:05
fastened固定 by technologies技術 and hastened趕緊 by just-in-time剛剛在時間 management管理 systems系統.
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透過科技相連 經由管理加強整合
05:10
Small levels水平 of stock股票 push resilience彈性 into other people's人們 responsibility責任.
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自掃門前雪 只會讓大局無人主持
05:15
The collapse坍方 in biodiversity生物多樣性,
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生物多樣性遭破壞
05:17
climate氣候 change更改, pandemics流行病, financial金融 crises危機:
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氣候變遷、流行疾病與金融風暴
05:20
these will be the currency貨幣 that we will think about.
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都是大局中不容小覷的影響因素
05:23
And so a new awareness意識 will have to arise出現,
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因此我們要有全新的體悟
05:25
of how we deal合同 with these, how we mobilize動員 ourselves我們自己,
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學習如何處理問題 如何動員人力
05:28
in a new way, and come together一起 as a community社區
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用新方法 而且要通力合作
05:31
to manage管理 systemic系統的 risk風險.
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來管理系統性風險
05:33
It's going to require要求 innovation革新.
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這需要創意
05:35
It's going to require要求 an understanding理解 that the glory榮耀 of globalization全球化
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需要理解 全球化的成果
05:39
could also be its downfall倒台.
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也可能使它垮臺
05:41
This could be our best最好 century世紀 ever because of the achievements成就,
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21世紀可以是盛世 因為成就輝煌
05:44
or it could be our worst最差.
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也可能是最糟糕的世紀
05:46
And of course課程 we need to worry擔心 about the individuals個人,
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當然 我們不能忽略個人
05:48
particularly尤其 the individuals個人 that feel that they've他們已經
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尤其是那些
05:50
been left out in one way or another另一個.
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覺得被遺棄的人
05:52
An individual個人, for the first time in the history歷史 of humanity人性,
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在人類歷史上 (生物性危險物品)
05:55
will have the capacity容量, by 2030,
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2030年 個人將首度有能力
05:57
to destroy破壞 the planet行星, to wreck破壞 everything,
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毀滅地球 破壞一切
06:00
through通過 the creation創建, for example, of a biopathogenbiopathogen.
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比如說 利用新創造的生物病原
06:03
How do we begin開始 to weave編織 these tapestries掛毯 together一起?
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我們要如何把這些片段連接起來?
06:05
How do we think about complex複雜 systems系統 in new ways方法?
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如何用新思維檢視複雜的系统?
06:08
That will be the challenge挑戰 of the scholars學者,
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這個挑戰 不只學者們首當其衝
06:10
and of all of us engaged訂婚 in thinking思維 about the future未來.
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也是所有關心未來的人要思考的
06:13
The rest休息 of our lives生活 will be in the future未來. We need to prepare準備 for it now.
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面對未來 我們要及早準備
06:16
We need to understand理解 that the governance治理 structure結構體 in the world世界 is fossilized化石.
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世界的治理架構已經陳腐過時 (誰來治理?)
06:19
It cannot不能 begin開始 to cope應付 with the challenges挑戰 that this will bring帶來.
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無法應付全球化帶來的挑戰
06:23
We have to develop發展 a new way of managing管理的 the planet行星,
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我們必須找出新方法來管理地球
06:26
collectively, through通過 collective集體 wisdom智慧.
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同心協力 集思廣益
06:28
We know, and I know from my own擁有 experience經驗,
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你我都明白 經驗告訴我們
06:30
that amazing驚人 things can happen發生,
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奇蹟會發生
06:32
when individuals個人 and societies社會 come together一起
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如果個人和社會都決心
06:34
to change更改 their future未來.
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改變他們的未來
06:36
I left South Africa非洲, and 15 years年份 later後來,
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我離開南非15年後 (認為非洲民族議會將接管南非的是癡人說夢)
06:38
after thinking思維 I would never go back,
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改變原本絕不再回去的決定 (1987年柴契爾夫人發言)
06:40
I had the privilege特權 and the honor榮譽 to work in the government政府 of Nelson納爾遜 Mandela曼德拉.
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很榮幸地成為曼德拉政府的一員
06:43
This was a miracle奇蹟. We can create創建 miracles奇蹟,
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這就是奇蹟 我們可以創造奇蹟
06:45
collectively, in our lifetime一生.
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同心協力 在有生之年親見成果
06:47
It is vital重要 that we do so.
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這樣的努力是改變未來的關鍵 (2030年必知的六大議題)
06:49
It is vital重要 that the ideas思路 that are nurtured培育 in TEDTED,
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眾多講者在TED分享的想法
06:51
that the ideas思路 that we think about
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我們自己腦袋裡的想法
06:53
look forward前鋒, and make sure that this will be the most glorious輝煌 century世紀,
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都是期盼 盼望21世紀是光榮盛世
06:56
and not one of eco-disaster生態災難 and eco-collapse生態崩潰.
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而不是生靈塗炭的黑暗世紀
06:59
Thank you. (Applause掌聲)
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謝謝各位 (掌聲)
Translated by Dariush Robertson
Reviewed by Michelle Fan

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ian Goldin - Economist, development visionary
Ian Goldin is director of the Oxford Martin School. Through the school's program of research, collaboration and education, he's powering new, cross-disciplinary thinking about global problems from the near and far future.

Why you should listen

Take a look at Ian Goldin's jam-packed CV and you'll see why he was appointed the first Director of Oxford University's new think tank-cum-research center, the 21st Century School, later renamed the Oxford Martin School: Goldin battled apartheid in his native South Africa, served as a development adviser to Nelson Mandela and, as the VP of the World Bank, led collaborations with the UN on global development strategy. He is the author of 19 books, including Exceptional People: How Migration Shaped our World and Will Define our Future (Princeton University Press, 2011), Divided Nations: Why global governance is failing and what we can do about it (Oxford University Press, 2013) and The Butterfly Defect: How globalization creates systemic risks, and what to do about it (Princeton University Press, 2014).

At Oxford Martin School, with a diverse brigade of over 200 top researchers from the hard and social sciences, Goldin is bringing fresh thinking to bear on the big, looming issues of the next 100 years: climate change, disruptive technological advancements, aging, bio-ethics, infectious disease, poverty, political conflict.

More profile about the speaker
Ian Goldin | Speaker | TED.com

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