TEDGlobal 2011
Pavan Sukhdev: Put a value on nature!
帕蕃 索克特夫：為大自然定個價值！
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我們每日不加思索、毋須一分一毫咁消耗地球資源。但如果我哋真係要為真實價值結帳，咁我哋用嘅時候又會唔會小心同更警惕？帕蕃 索克特夫作為自然界嘅銀行家 -- 為地球嘅寶庫評估價值。佢嘅圖表將使你大開眼界，重新反思空氣、水同樹林嘅成本.....
Pavan Sukhdev - Environmental economist
A banker by training, Pavan Sukhdev runs the numbers on greening up -- showing that green economies are an effective engine for creating jobs and creating wealth. Full bio
A banker by training, Pavan Sukhdev runs the numbers on greening up -- showing that green economies are an effective engine for creating jobs and creating wealth. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
I'm here to talk to you
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我係呢度同大家討論
00:17
about the economic invisibility of nature.
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大自然嘅經濟無形性
00:19
The bad news
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有個壞消息
00:21
is that mother nature's back office isn't working yet,
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係大自然嘅後勤部門其實運作唔到
00:23
so those invoices don't get issued.
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所以仲未出發票
00:25
But we need to do something about this problem.
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但我哋需要處理呢個問題
00:28
I began my life as a markets professional
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我從事市場專業
00:31
and continued to take an interest,
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我一向熱愛工作
00:34
but most of my recent effort
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不過最近我大部分精力
00:36
has been looking at the value
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都投放到研究
00:38
of what comes to human beings from nature,
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人類開發自然資源嘅價值
00:40
and which doesn't get priced by the markets.
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但佢地仍然未有價錢牌
00:43
A project called TEEB was started in 2007,
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一個名為TEEB的計劃係2007年開始
00:46
and it was launched by a group of environment ministers
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係由一群環保官員成立
00:49
of the G8+5.
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成員係來自G8+5
00:51
And their basic inspiration
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佢哋嘅基本理念
00:53
was a stern review of Lord Stern.
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是認真審視斯特恩勳爵嘅見解
00:55
They asked themselves a question:
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佢哋問咗自己一個問題：
00:57
If economics could make such a convincing case
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如果經濟能夠有說服力去解釋
00:59
for early action on climate change,
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及早對抗氣候變化嘅重要性
01:01
well why can't the same be done for conservation?
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咁點解保育唔可以咁做？
01:03
Why can't an equivalent case be made
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點解同一道理唔可以
01:05
for nature?
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套用到大自然呢？
01:07
And the answer is: Yeah, it can.
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而答案係：無錯，可以
01:09
But it's not that straightforward.
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但並唔係咁直接
01:11
Biodiversity, the living fabric of this planet, is not a gas.
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生物多樣性, 地球上活嘅結構而非氣體
01:14
It exists in many layers,
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佢存在係好多個層面
01:16
ecosystems, species and genes across many scales --
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遍佈眾多個生態系統、物種同基因 --
01:19
international, national, local, community --
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不論國際、國內、本地、社區 --
01:22
and doing for nature
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生物多樣性都回饋大自然
01:24
what Lord Stern and his team did for nature is not that easy.
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斯特恩勳爵同佢嘅團隊為自然界付出嘅努力殊不簡單
01:27
And yet, we began.
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我哋開始咗第一步
01:29
We began the project with an interim report,
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個計劃由一份中期報告開始
01:31
which quickly pulled together
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裡面綜合咗係短時間內
01:33
a lot of information that had been collected on the subject
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大量由研究員搜集返嚟關於
01:36
by many, many researchers.
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呢個課題嘅資料
01:38
And amongst our compiled results
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而係我哋編輯嘅結果之中
01:40
was the startling revelation
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有一個驚人嘅發現
01:42
that, in fact, we were losing natural capital --
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就是其實我們正在損失自然資源 --
01:45
the benefits that flow from nature to us.
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即係從大自然流比我哋嘅好處
01:47
We were losing it at an extraordinary rate --
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原來我哋以驚人嘅速度損耗緊 --
01:49
in fact, of the order of two to four trillion dollars-worth
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價值高達200至400萬兆美元
01:52
of natural capital.
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嘅自然資源
01:55
This came out in 2008,
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報告於2008年發表
01:57
which was, of course, around the time that the banking crisis had shown
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亦即係金融海嘯嘅時候
01:59
that we had lost financial capital
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揭示投資市場
02:01
of the order of two and a half trillion dollars.
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已虧損達2至3億美元
02:03
So this was comparable in size to that kind of loss.
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自然資源損耗嘅規模亦達至同一規模
02:06
We then have gone on since
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於是我哋開始
02:08
to present for [the] international community,
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為國際社會
02:11
for governments,
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為各個政府
02:13
for local governments and for business
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為本地政府同商界
02:15
and for people, for you and me,
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為全球人類，為你同我
02:17
a whole slew of reports, which were presented at the U.N. last year,
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去年在聯合國發佈咗呢堆報告
02:20
which address the economic invisibility of nature
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針對大自然經濟嘅無形性
02:23
and describe what can be done to solve it.
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去表達解決方法
02:25
What is this about?
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究竟係咩呢?
02:27
A picture that you're familiar with --
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一幅大家好熟悉的圖像 --
02:29
the Amazon rainforests.
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亞馬遜雨林
02:31
It's a massive store of carbon, it's an amazing store of biodiversity,
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佢係一個巨大嘅碳庫存，一個擁有生物多樣性嘅庫存
02:34
but what people don't really know
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但好多人都唔知
02:36
is this also is a rain factory.
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呢個亦係一個雨水工廠
02:38
Because the northeastern trade winds,
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因為當東北信風
02:40
as they go over the Amazonas,
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橫過亞馬遜納嘅時候
02:42
effectively gather the water vapor.
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好有效咁收集水蒸氣
02:44
Something like 20 billion tons per day of water vapor
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每日大約20萬億噸水蒸氣
02:47
is sucked up by the northeastern trade winds,
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被東北信風吸走
02:50
and eventually precipitates in the form of rain
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慢慢冷卻成降雨
02:53
across the La Plata Basin.
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落到拉普拉塔河盆
02:55
This rainfall cycle, this rainfall factory,
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呢個降雨循環，呢個雨水工廠
02:58
effectively feeds an agricultural economy
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有效咁孕育著一個農業經濟
03:00
of the order of 240 billion dollars-worth
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價值達240萬億美元
03:02
in Latin America.
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位於拉丁美洲
03:04
But the question arises: Okay, so how much
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有一個問題
03:07
do Uruguay, Paraguay, Argentina
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究景烏拉圭、巴拉圭、阿根廷
03:09
and indeed the state of Mato Grosso in Brazil
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仲有巴西馬托格羅索州
03:12
pay for that vital input to that economy
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需要為呢個咁重要經濟輸入
03:15
to the state of Amazonas, which produces that rainfall?
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為生產雨水嘅亞馬遜納州付出幾多呢？
03:18
And the answer is zilch,
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答案是無
03:20
exactly zero.
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係零
03:22
That's the economic invisibility of nature.
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呢個就係大自然經濟嘅無形性
03:24
That can't keep going on,
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呢個情況唔可以持續落去
03:26
because economic incentives and disincentives are very powerful.
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因為經濟誘因同抑制因素好強大
03:29
Economics has become the currency of policy.
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經濟已經成為政策嘅籌碼
03:31
And unless we address
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除非我們正視
03:33
this invisibility,
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呢嗰無形性
03:35
we are going to get the results that we are seeing,
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否則我哋會面對一如所料嘅後果
03:37
which is a gradual degradation and loss
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目送珍貴嘅天然財產
03:40
of this valuable natural asset.
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逐漸退化同喪失
03:42
It's not just about the Amazonas, or indeed about rainforests.
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呢個唔單只關係到亞馬遜納同雨林
03:45
No matter what level you look at,
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無論邊個層面
03:47
whether it's at the ecosystem level or at the species level or at the genetic level,
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無論係生態系統定係物種或者基因層面
03:50
we see the same problem again and again.
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呢個問題都係無處不在
03:53
So rainfall cycle and water regulation by rainforests
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雨林嘅降雨循環同水調節
03:56
at an ecosystem level.
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係生態系統層面也好
03:58
At the species level,
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係物種層面也好
04:00
it's been estimated that insect-based pollination,
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估計昆蟲傳播花粉
04:02
bees pollinating fruit and so on,
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蜜蜂為果實授粉等等
04:05
is something like 190 billion dollars-worth.
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約值190萬億美元
04:08
That's something like eight percent
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呢個差不多相當於
04:10
of the total agricultural output globally.
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全球總農產量百分之8
04:14
It completely passes below the radar screen.
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但我哋完全忽略咗這點
04:16
But when did a bee actually ever give you an invoice?
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但蜜蜂幾時發張發票比我哋?
04:19
Or for that matter, if you look at the genetic level,
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或者，從基因層面睇嘅話
04:22
60 percent of medicines were prospected,
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六成藥物係開發時
04:25
were found first as molecules in a rainforest or a reef.
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只係雨林或暗礁中嘅化學分子
04:28
Once again, most of that doesn't get paid.
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同樣唔洗一分一毫
04:30
And that brings me to another aspect of this,
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呢個帶我到問題嘅另一面
04:32
which is, to whom should this get paid?
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就係應該邊個收錢?
04:35
That genetic material
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呢的基因物質
04:37
probably belonged, if it could belong to anyone,
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如果屬於任何人嘅話，大概屬於
04:39
to a local community of poor people
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貧窮社區嘅人
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who parted with the knowledge that helped the researchers to find the molecule,
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佢哋缺乏比研究員找到化學分子嘅知識
04:44
which then became the medicine.
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而呢的最終成為藥物
04:46
They were the ones that didn't get paid.
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佢地一無所得
04:48
And if you look at the species level,
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如果你睇吓物種層次
04:51
you saw about fish.
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你睇見魚類
04:53
Today, the depletion of ocean fisheries is so significant
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今日, 海洋漁產嘅損耗非常顯著
04:56
that effectively it is effecting the ability of the poor,
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迅速蠶食
05:00
the artisanal fisher folk
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從古到今
05:02
and those who fish for their own livelihoods,
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都以捕魚維生
05:04
to feed their families.
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和養妻活兒的人嘅生活
05:06
Something like a billion people depend on fish,
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全球大約10億人依賴魚類
05:08
the quantity of fish in the oceans.
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依賴海洋中的魚量
05:10
A billion people depend on fish
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10億人依賴魚類
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for their main source for animal protein.
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作為動物蛋白質的主要來源
05:15
And at this rate at which we are losing fish,
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按目前魚類損耗速度
05:17
it is a human problem of enormous dimensions,
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係一個龐大的人禍
05:19
a health problem
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一個前所未有嘅
05:21
of a kind we haven't seen before.
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健康問題
05:24
And finally, at the ecosystem level,
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最後，喺生態系統層面
05:26
whether it's flood prevention or drought control provided by the forests,
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無論係樹林防洪或防旱功能
05:29
or whether it is the ability of poor farmers
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甚至係貧困嘅農民
05:31
to go out and gather leaf litter
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外出收集枯枝落葉
05:33
for their cattle and goats,
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供家畜家畜
05:35
or whether it's the ability of their wives
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或者佢哋嘅妻子
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to go and collect fuel wood from the forest,
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去樹林執柴枝
05:39
it is actually the poor
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即係貧窮嘅一群人
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who depend most on these ecosystem services.
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最依賴呢類生態系統幫助
05:43
We did estimates in our study
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我哋嘅研究估計
05:45
that for countries like Brazil, India and Indonesia,
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巴西、印度、印尼等國家
05:48
even though ecosystem services --
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縱使生態系統服務 --
05:50
these benefits that flow from nature to humanity for free --
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呢類從大自然免費流到人類嘅益處 --
05:53
they're not very big in percentage terms of GDP --
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或者佔國內生產總值百分比唔多 --
05:55
two, four, eight, 10, 15 percent --
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百分之 2, 4, 8, 10 或者15不等 --
05:57
but in these countries, if we measure how much they're worth to the poor,
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但係呢的國家，如果計算佢地對貧窮人口嘅價值
06:00
the answers are more like
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得出嘅數字係
06:02
45 percent, 75 percent, 90 percent.
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百分之45, 75 甚至90
06:05
That's the difference.
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差異就係呢度
06:07
Because these are important benefits for the poor.
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因為佢哋對貧窮嘅人嚟講好重要
06:10
And you can't really have a proper model for development
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而你唔可以指望有一個正統嘅發展模式
06:13
if at the same time you're destroying or allowing
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如果你同時破壞或任由
06:16
the degradation of the very asset, the most important asset,
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呢嗰珍貴同賴以發展
06:19
which is your development asset,
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嘅資源退化
06:21
that is ecological infrastructure.
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即係呢個生態系統
06:23
How bad can things get?
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情況將會有幾壞?
06:25
Well here a picture of something called the mean species abundance.
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呢度有張叫做平均物種豐度嘅圖片
06:28
It's basically a measure
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基本上量度
06:30
of how many tigers, toads, ticks or whatever on average
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老虎、蟾蜍、壁蝨諸如此類嘅平均數量
06:32
of biomass of various species are around.
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同各物種嘅生物重量
06:35
The green represents the percentage.
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綠色部分代表百分比
06:37
If you start green, it's like 80 to 100 percent.
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先看綠色嘅話，呢度大概有百分之80至100
06:40
If it's yellow, it's 40 to 60 percent.
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再睇黃色，便有百分之40至60
06:42
And these are percentages versus the original state, so to speak,
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呢嗰係對比原有數量嘅百分比
06:44
the pre-industrial era, 1750.
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即是工業化前，1750年
06:47
Now I'm going to show you
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而家我會比大家睇
06:49
how business as usual will affect this.
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目前情況不變會造成咩後果
06:51
And just watch the change in colors
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只需要留意顏色轉變
06:53
in India, China, Europe,
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係印度、中國、歐洲、
06:55
sub-Saharan Africa
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非洲撒哈拉以南
06:57
as we move on and consume global biomass
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我哋隨著不可持續嘅速度
07:00
at a rate which is actually not going to be able to sustain us.
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消耗全球生物量
07:04
See that again.
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再睇
07:06
The only places that remain green -- and that's not good news --
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一個壞消息, 僅存綠色嘅地方
07:08
is, in fact, places like the Gobi Desert,
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只係戈壁沙漠區域
07:11
like the tundra and like the Sahara.
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譬如苔原，譬如撒哈拉
07:13
But that doesn't help because there were very few species
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不過無用, 因為物種好少
07:15
and volume of biomass there in the first place.
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而佢哋生物量體積本身已經唔多
07:17
This is the challenge.
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這個就係挑戰所在
07:19
The reason this is happening
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原因就係
07:22
boils down, in my mind, to one basic problem,
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歸根究底，我認為係一個基本問題
07:25
which is our inability to perceive the difference
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我地忽視咗
07:27
between public benefits
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公益
07:29
and private profits.
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同私利之間嘅差別
07:31
We tend to constantly ignore public wealth
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我哋一向漠視公共財富
07:34
simply because it is in the common wealth,
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純粹因為大家嘅福祉
07:36
it's common goods.
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大家係好處
07:38
And here's an example from Thailand
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有一個泰國嘅例子
07:40
where we found that, because the value of a mangrove is not that much --
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我哋發現由於紅樹林價值唔高 --
07:44
it's about $600 over the life of nine years that this has been measured --
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以佢哋九年生命大概值600美元 --
07:48
compared to its value as a shrimp farm,
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比較作為養蝦場嘅價值
07:50
which is more like $9,600,
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約莫係9600美元
07:52
there has been a gradual trend to deplete the mangroves
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紅樹林已經就嚟絕跡
07:55
and convert them to shrimp farms.
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並被轉換為養蝦場
07:57
But of course, if you look at exactly what those profits are,
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如果仔細探究牟得嘅利益係咩
08:01
almost 8,000 of those dollars
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當中接近8000美元
08:03
are, in fact, subsidies.
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其實都是補貼
08:05
So you compare the two sides of the coin
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所以權衡利弊嘅時候
08:08
and you find that it's more like 1,200 to 600.
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就會發現實際利潤分別是1200同600美元
08:10
That's not that hard.
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唔太難明白
08:12
But on the other hand, if you start measuring,
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另外如果計算
08:14
how much would it actually cost
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將養蝦場嘅土地
08:16
to restore the land of the shrimp farm
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翻新恢復生產用途
08:18
back to productive use?
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代價將會係幾多?
08:20
Once salt deposition and chemical deposition
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一旦鹽同化學嘅含量
08:22
has had its effects,
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起咗作用
08:24
that answer is more like $12,000 of cost.
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成本大概係12000美元
08:27
And if you see the benefits of the mangrove
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如果諗下保留紅樹林嘅好處
08:29
in terms of the storm protection and cyclone protection that you get
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包括抵禦風暴, 防範颱風
08:32
and in terms of the fisheries, the fish nurseries,
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為漁產，為窮民提供漁獲
08:34
that provide fish for the poor,
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嘅魚類繁殖場
08:36
that answer is more like $11,000.
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答案係11,000美元
08:38
So now look at the different lens.
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試吓從另一角度去睇
08:40
If you look at the lens of public wealth
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如果從公共財富出發
08:42
as against the lens of private profits,
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而非私人利益
08:44
you get a completely different answer,
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我哋會得到一個好唔同嘅答案
08:46
which is clearly conservation makes more sense,
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亦即係保育顯然更合理
08:49
and not destruction.
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而唔係破壞
08:51
So is this just a story from South Thailand?
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呢嗰係咪只係泰國南部嘅情況?
08:54
Sorry, this is a global story.
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唔係, 呢個係全世界嘅狀況
08:56
And here's what the same calculation looks like,
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以同一方式計算
08:58
which was done recently -- well I say recently, over the last 10 years --
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即最近十年嚟講
09:01
by a group called TRUCOST.
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由一個名為TRUCOST嘅組織進行
09:03
And they calculated for the top 3,000 corporations,
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佢哋為最頂尖3,000家大公司計算
09:05
what are the externalities?
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有咩外在因素？
09:07
In other words, what are the costs of doing business as usual?
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換句話說，如常營商嘅成本係幾多？
09:09
This is not illegal stuff, this is basically business as usual,
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唔係指非法勾當，只是一般營商，
09:12
which causes climate-changing emissions, which have an economic cost.
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會導致改變氣候嘅排放，附帶著經濟成本
09:15
It causes pollutants being issued, which have an economic cost,
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持續放出污染物，附帶著經濟成本
09:18
health cost and so on.
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健康成本等等
09:20
Use of freshwater.
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亦包括淡水利用
09:22
If you drill water to make coke near a village farm,
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如果你係鄉村耕地旁邊鑽鑿水源去煉焦炭
09:24
that's not illegal, but yes, it costs the community.
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雖無違法，但的確賠上社區嘅生活
09:26
Can we stop this, and how?
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我哋可以阻止嗎? 點樣阻止?
09:28
I think the first point to make is that we need to recognize natural capital.
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我認為第一點係需要認識自然資源
09:31
Basically the stuff of life is natural capital,
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簡單講生物就是自然資源
09:34
and we need to recognize and build that into our systems.
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我哋需要認識同生活模式入面
09:37
When we measure GDP
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當量度國民生產總值
09:39
as a measure of economic performance at the national level,
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作為國家層面經濟表現嘅標準
09:41
we don't include our biggest asset at the country level.
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我哋並無包括自然界嘅資源
09:44
When we measure corporate performances,
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當我哋量度業績
09:46
we don't include our impacts on nature
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我哋亦無包括對大自然嘅影響
09:48
and what our business costs society.
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以及社會為經商承擔嘅代價
09:50
That has to stop.
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一定要停止
09:52
In fact, this was what really inspired my interest in this phase.
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呢嗰亦係我目前最有興趣嘅野
09:55
I began a project way back called the Green Accounting Project.
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之前我搞咗一個綠色帳單計劃
09:57
That was in the early 2000s
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大約係2000年代初
09:59
when India was going gung-ho about GDP growth
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當時印度嘅國內生產總值增長強勁
10:02
as the means forward --
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被視為前進嘅路向 --
10:04
looking at China with its stellar growths of eight, nine, 10 percent
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眼看著中國有百分之8至10 的增長
10:06
and wondering, why can we do the same?
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佢哋問, 點解我哋做唔到?
10:08
And a few friends of mine and I
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我同幾個朋友
10:10
decided this doesn't make sense.
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都覺得好唔合理
10:12
This is going to create more cost to society and more losses.
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呢個將會為社會帶嚟更多負擔
10:15
So we decided to do a massive set of calculations
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於是我哋決定計算
10:17
and started producing green accounts for India and its states.
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又開始為印度各地做綠色帳單
10:20
That's how my interests began
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我嘅志趣就係咁樣開始
10:22
and went to the TEEB project.
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後來演變成TEEB計劃
10:24
Calculating this at the national level is one thing, and it has begun.
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在國家層面計算呢種綠色帳單
10:27
And the World Bank has acknowledged this
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而世界銀行亦確認咗呢個計畫
10:29
and they've started a project called WAVES --
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開展名為WAVES -- 全球生態系統
10:31
Wealth Accounting and Valuation of Ecosystem Services.
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和生態系統服務評價以及財富核算伙伴計劃
10:33
But calculating this at the next level,
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計算嘅層面, 轉去
10:35
that means at the business sector level, is important.
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商界層面，呢點好重要
10:37
And actually we've done this with the TEEB project.
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事實上我哋亦都係TEEB計劃做過
10:39
We've done this for a very difficult case,
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我哋做咗一個好棘手嘅個案
10:42
which was for deforestation in China.
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中國的伐林問題
10:44
This is important, because in China in 1997,
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非常重要, 因為中國係1997年
10:47
the Yellow River actually went dry for nine months
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黃河就足足乾涸咗九個月
10:50
causing severe loss of agriculture output
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導致農產出劇烈損失
10:52
and pain and loss to society.
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仲有對社會帶嚟損失和禍害
10:54
Just a year later the Yangtze flooded,
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一年後長江泛濫
10:56
causing something like 5,500 deaths.
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造成差不多5,500人死亡
10:59
So clearly there was a problem with deforestation.
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伐林就係問題根源
11:01
It was associated largely with the construction industry.
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好大程度上聯繫到建築業
11:04
And the Chinese government responded sensibly
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而中國政府明智作出回應
11:06
and placed a ban on felling.
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亦禁止了砍伐林木
11:08
A retrospective on 40 years
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回顧40年
11:10
shows that if we had accounted for these costs --
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顯示如果當初我地有負起呢個成本 --
11:14
the cost of loss of topsoil,
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包括表土流失
11:16
the cost of loss of waterways,
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水道喪失
11:18
the lost productivity, the loss to local communities
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生產力嘅損失，因為伐木造成
11:21
as a result of all these factors,
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對本地社區嘅破壞
11:23
desertification and so on --
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荒漠化等等 --
11:25
those costs are almost twice as much
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呢的成本幾乎係
11:27
as the market price of timber.
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木材市價嘅兩倍
11:29
So in fact, the price of timber in the Beijing marketplace
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因此事實上，北京市場上嘅木材價格
11:32
ought to have been three-times what it was
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應該係現時嘅三倍
11:34
had it reflected the true pain and the costs
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如果有反映
11:37
to the society within China.
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中國社會付出嘅代價
11:39
Of course, after the event one can be wise.
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當然，經一事長一智
11:42
The way to do this is to do it on a company basis,
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處理辦法就是係以公司為基礎
11:44
to take leadership forward,
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帶頭做起
11:46
and to do it for as many important sectors which have a cost,
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為愈多要付成本嘅重要界別計算得愈好
11:49
and to disclose these answers.
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同埋披露呢的數字
11:51
Someone once asked me, "Who is better or worse,
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有人曾經問我
11:53
is it Unilever or is it P&G
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若考慮對印尼雨林嘅影響
11:55
when it comes to their impact on rainforests in Indonesia?"
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聯合利華 還是 P&G 比較好?
11:58
And I couldn't answer because neither of these companies,
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我唔識答，因為呢兩家公司
12:00
good though they are and professional though they are,
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雖然好專業
12:02
do not calculate or disclose their externalities.
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但都無計算或披露過外在因素
12:05
But if we look at companies like PUMA --
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如果我哋睇吓彪馬等公司 --
12:07
Jochen Zeitz, their CEO and chairman,
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約亨塞茲，佢哋嘅行政總裁同董事長，
12:09
once challenged me at a function,
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曾經係一個活動
12:11
saying that he's going to implement my project before I finish it.
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同我講佢會係我完成之前就計好咗
12:14
Well I think we kind of did it at the same time, but he's done it.
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學無前後, 達者為先
12:17
He's basically worked the cost to PUMA.
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基本上為彪馬計算成本
12:19
PUMA has 2.7 billion dollars of turnover,
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彪馬嘅營業額達27億美元
12:21
300 million dollars of profits,
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有3億利潤
12:23
200 million dollars after tax,
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交稅後有兩億
12:25
94 million dollars of externalities, cost to business.
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當中9400百萬外在因素，營商成本
12:28
Now that's not a happy situation for them,
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情况雖然不利
12:30
but they have the confidence and the courage
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但佢哋有信心同勇氣
12:32
to come forward and say, "Here's what we are measuring.
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佢走埋嚟同我哋講
12:35
We are measuring it because we know
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"我哋進行計算, 因為我哋深知"
12:37
that you cannot manage what you do not measure."
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"唔去計永遠都管理唔到"
12:39
That's an example, I think, for us to look at
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呢個例子, 可以作為示範
12:41
and for us to draw comfort from.
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亦令人感到安慰
12:43
If more companies did this,
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如果更多公司都做
12:45
and if more sectors engaged this as sectors,
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如果更多界別參予
12:47
you could have analysts, business analysts,
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可以比分析員
12:49
and you could have people like us and consumers and NGOs
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或者一般消費者或非牟利組織去
12:52
actually look and compare the social performance of companies.
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去審視同比較企業嘅社會表現
12:55
Today we can't yet do that, but I think the path is laid out.
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雖然仍未成事，但已有路可循
12:58
This can be done.
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係有可能做到
13:00
And I'm delighted that the Institute of Chartered Accountants in the U.K.
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而我好慶幸英國特許會計師協會
13:02
has already set up a coalition to do this,
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已經成立一個國際聯盟
13:04
an international coalition.
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進行計算工作
13:06
The other favorite, if you like, solution for me
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另一個我喜歡嘅方法
13:09
is the creation of green carbon markets.
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就係創造綠色碳市場
13:11
And by the way, these are my favorites --
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講開又講，我真係好喜歡
13:13
externalities calculation and green carbon markets.
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計算外呢類因素同埋綠色碳市場
13:15
TEEB has more than a dozen separate groups of solutions
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TEEB有超過12組不同方案
13:19
including protected area evaluation
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包括評估保護區
13:21
and payments for ecosystem services
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為生態服務結帳
13:23
and eco-certification and you name it, but these are the favorites.
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生態驗證等形形式式
13:26
What's green carbon?
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咩係綠色碳？
13:28
Today what we have is basically a brown carbon marketplace.
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而家我哋有嘅係褪色嘅碳市場
13:30
It's about energy emissions.
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同能源排放有關
13:32
The European Union ETS is the main marketplace.
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歐盟排放權交易計劃就係主要市場
13:34
It's not doing too well. We've over-issued.
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由於發行過度, 表現唔理想
13:36
A bit like inflation: you over-issue currency,
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就好似通脹：你大量發鈔，
13:38
you get what you see, declining prices.
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然後一如所料，價格下降。
13:41
But that's all about energy and industry.
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這全都與能源和工業有關。
13:44
But what we're missing is also some other emissions
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我們忽略了其他排放
13:46
like black carbon, that is soot.
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例如黑色碳，即是煤煙
13:48
What we're also missing is blue carbon,
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我哋亦忽略咗藍色碳
13:50
which, by the way, is the largest store of carbon --
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亦即是最大嘅碳庫存 --
13:52
more than 55 percent.
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超過百分之55
13:54
Thankfully, the flux, in other words, the flow of emissions
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好欣慰, 所講嘅藍色碳係
13:56
from the ocean to the atmosphere and vice versa,
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來回海洋和大氣層之間排放同流出
13:58
is more or less balanced.
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差不多收支平衡
14:00
In fact, what's being absorbed
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事實上，被吸收嘅
14:02
is something like 25 percent of our emissions,
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大約是我哋排放嘅四分一
14:05
which then leads to acidification
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佢哋會導致海洋酸化
14:07
or lower alkalinity in oceans.
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或鹼度下降
14:09
More of that in a minute.
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我地稍後再講
14:11
And finally, there's deforestation,
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最後，係砍伐樹林
14:13
and there's emission of methane
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仲有係來自農業
14:15
from agriculture.
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甲烷排放
14:17
Green carbon,
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綠色碳
14:19
which is the deforestation and agricultural emissions,
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即係來自伐林同農業排放
14:21
and blue carbon
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以及藍色碳
14:23
together comprise 25 percent of our emissions.
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合共佔去我地排放嘅四分一
14:25
We have the means already in our hands,
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其實已經有方法
14:27
through a structure, through a mechanism, called REDD Plus --
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透過一個結構同機制，名為REDD Plus--
14:29
a scheme for the reduced emissions
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一個為減少伐林同林地退化
14:31
from deforestation and forest degradation.
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造成嘅碳排放而設嘅計劃
14:34
And already Norway has contributed a billion dollars each
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挪威已分別投放10億元
14:37
towards Indonesia and Brazil
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去印尼同巴西
14:39
to implement this Red Plus scheme.
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推行呢個Red Plus計劃
14:41
So we actually have some movement forward.
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進展係有
14:43
But the thing is to do a lot more of that.
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但仍要花好多工夫
14:45
Will this solve the problem? Will economics solve everything?
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咁問題解決到嗎？經濟可以解決到嗎？
14:48
Well I'm afraid not.
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未必
14:50
There is an area that is the oceans, coral reefs.
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仲有海洋、珊瑚礁
14:53
As you can see,
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你哋睇睇
14:55
they cut across the entire globe
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佢哋遍佈全球
14:57
all the way from Micronesia
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由密克羅西尼亞一直
14:59
across Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Madagascar
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穿過印尼、馬來西亞、印度、馬達加斯加
15:02
and to the West of the Caribbean.
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到加勒比海西面
15:04
These red dots, these red areas,
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呢的紅點，紅色區域
15:06
basically provide the food and livelihood
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基本上為過五億人口
15:08
for more than half a billion people.
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提供了同生計
15:10
So that's almost an eighth of society.
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大概佔全球八分一人口
15:13
And the sad thing is that, as these coral reefs are lost --
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不幸嘅係，隨著珊瑚礁損失 --
15:16
and scientists tell us
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科學家指出
15:18
that any level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere above 350 parts per million
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大氣中任何超過百萬分之350二氧化碳
15:21
is too dangerous for the survival of these reefs --
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對呢的珊瑚礁嘅生存構成危險 --
15:24
we are not only risking the extinction
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我哋冒嘅險並唔係
15:26
of the entire coral species, the warm water corals,
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整個珊瑚物種同溫水珊瑚嘅滅絕
15:28
we're not only risking a fourth of all fish species which are in the oceans,
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並唔係海洋中所有魚類四分一
15:32
but we are risking the very lives and livelihoods
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而係超過五億人
15:34
of more than 500 million people
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嘅生命同生計
15:37
who live in the developing world in poor countries.
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佢哋身處發展中嘅貧窮國家
15:40
So in selecting targets of 450 parts per million
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因此係選擇百萬分之450嘅目標
15:43
and selecting two degrees at the climate negotiations,
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同氣候談判爭拗兩者嘅時候
15:46
what we have done is we've made an ethical choice.
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我哋係作出一個道德抉擇
15:49
We've actually kind of made an ethical choice in society
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幾乎係為社會作呢個決擇
15:52
to not have coral reefs.
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去放棄珊瑚礁
15:54
Well what I will say to you in parting
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我完結前想講嘅係
15:56
is that we may have done that.
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呢個或者係我哋會做嘅選擇
15:58
Let's think about it and what it means,
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大家諗下佢嘅含義
16:00
but please, let's not do more of that.
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請唔好繼續咁做
16:02
Because mother nature only has that much
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因為我地擁有嘅
16:04
in ecological infrastructure and that much natural capital.
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生態系統同自然資本就只得咁多
16:07
I don't think we can afford too much of such ethical choices.
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我哋唔可再負擔呢的錯誤
16:10
Thank you.
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多謝各位
16:12
(Applause)
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(獎聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Pavan Sukhdev - Environmental economistA banker by training, Pavan Sukhdev runs the numbers on greening up -- showing that green economies are an effective engine for creating jobs and creating wealth.
Why you should listen
In 2008, Sukhdev took a sabbatical from Deutsche Bank, where he'd worked for fifteen years, to write up two massive and convincing reports on the green economy. For UNEP, his “Green Economy Report” synthesized years of research to show, with real numbers, that environmentally sound development is not a bar to growth but rather a new engine for growing wealth and creating employment in the face of persistent poverty. The groundbreaking TEEB (formally “The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity”) report counts the global economic benefits of biodiversity. It encourages countries to develop and publish “Natural capital accounts” tracking the value of plants, animal, water and other “natural wealth” alongside traditional financial measures in the hope of changing how decisions are made. In his book, Corporation 2020, he envisions tomorrow’s corporations as agents of an inclusive, green economy. He is now the CEO of Gist Advisory, a sustainability consulting firm.
Pavan Sukhdev | Speaker | TED.com