TEDGlobal 2017
Sara Menker: A global food crisis may be less than a decade away
Sara Menker: Globalna prehrambena kriza je samo deceniju daleko
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Sara Menker je napustila karijeru na Wall Street-u da bi spoznala kako funkcioniše globalni lanac vrijednosti u poljoprivredi. Njena otkrića dovela su do nekih zapanjujućih predviđanja: "Mogli bismo imati kritičnu tačku u globalnoj hrani i poljoprivredi ako porast potražnje nadmaši strukturne kapacitete poljoprivrednog sistema za proizvodnju", kaže ona. "Ljudi bi mogli gladovati i vlade bi mogle pasti." Menkerovi modeli predviđaju da bi se ovaj scenario mogao dogoditi za deceniju - da bi svet mogao da bude uskraćen za 214 triliona kalorija godišnje do 2027. godine. Ona nudi viziju ovog nemogućeg sveta, kao i neke korake koje možemo preduzeti danas kako bismo to izbegli.
Sara Menker - Technology entrepreneur
Sara Menker is founder and CEO of Gro Intelligence, a tech company that marries the application of machine learning with domain expertise and enables users to understand and predict global food and agriculture markets. Full bio
Sara Menker is founder and CEO of Gro Intelligence, a tech company that marries the application of machine learning with domain expertise and enables users to understand and predict global food and agriculture markets. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Since 2009, the world has been stuck
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Od 2009. svijet se kreće oko jedne priče,
00:16
on a single narrative
around a coming global food crisis
around a coming global food crisis
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oko nadolazeće svjetske prehrambene krize
00:21
and what we need to do to avoid it.
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i šta trebamo učiniti da je izbjegnemo.
00:25
How do we feed
nine billion people by 2050?
nine billion people by 2050?
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Kako ćemo nahraniti
9 milijardi ljudi do 2050?
9 milijardi ljudi do 2050?
00:30
Every conference, podcast
and dialogue around global food security
and dialogue around global food security
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Svaka konferencija
i dialog oko svjetske krize
i dialog oko svjetske krize
00:35
starts with this question
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počinje ovim pitanjem
00:36
and goes on to answer it
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i pokušajem odgovora,
00:38
by saying we need to produce
70 percent more food.
70 percent more food.
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kako trebamo proizvoditi 70% vise hrane.
00:45
The 2050 narrative started to evolve
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Priča 2050 se počela razvijati,
neposredno nakon
neposredno nakon
00:48
shortly after global food prices
hit all-time highs in 2008.
hit all-time highs in 2008.
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što su svjetske cijene hrane
dosegle vrhunac 2008.
dosegle vrhunac 2008.
00:53
People were suffering and struggling,
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Ljudi su se patili i borili,
00:56
governments and world leaders
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vlade i svjetske vođe
00:57
needed to show us
that they were paying attention
that they were paying attention
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su morale pokazati da brinu
01:00
and were working to solve it.
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i da rade na rješenju.
01:03
The thing is, 2050
is so far into the future
is so far into the future
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Stvar je u tome da je 2050.
tako daleko u budućnosti,
tako daleko u budućnosti,
01:07
that we can't even relate to it,
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da ne mozemo ni suosjećati,
01:10
and more importantly,
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i još važnije,
01:12
if we keep doing what we're doing,
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ako nastavimo raditi ono što radimo,
01:14
it's going to hit us
a lot sooner than that.
a lot sooner than that.
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situacija će biti gora nego je zamišljamo.
01:18
I believe we need to ask
a different question.
a different question.
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Smatram da trebamo postaviti novo pitanje.
01:22
The answer to that question
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Odgovor na pitanje
01:24
needs to be framed differently.
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se mora drugačije formulisati.
01:29
If we can reframe the old narrative
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Ako možemo preformulisati staru priču
01:31
and replace it with new numbers
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i zamijeniti je brojevima
01:34
that tell us a more complete pictures,
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koji će nam dati kompletnije slike,
01:37
numbers that everyone can understand
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brojeve koje svako razumije
01:40
and relate to,
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i s kojima se može povezati,
01:43
we can avoid the crisis altogether.
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možemo skupa spriječiti krizu.
01:48
I was a commodities trader in my past life
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Ja sam prije bila trgovac
01:51
and one of the things
that I learned trading
that I learned trading
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i jedna od stvari koje sam naučila je
01:53
is that every market has a tipping point,
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da svako tržište ima svoju kritičnu tačku,
01:57
the point at which
change occurs so rapidly
change occurs so rapidly
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tačku kada se javljaju promjene
02:00
that it impacts the world
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koje utječu na svijet
02:02
and things change forever.
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i stvari zauvijek mijenjaju.
02:06
Think of the last financial crisis,
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Pomislite na posljednju finansijsku krizu,
02:09
or the dot-com crash.
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ili dot-com krah.
02:12
So here's my concern.
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Dakle, toga se plašim.
02:16
We could have a tipping point
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Mogli bismo imati promjenu
02:18
in global food and agriculture
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u svjetskoj prehrani i poljoprivredi,
02:21
if surging demand
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ako porast potraznje prevaziđe
02:22
surpasses the agricultural system's
structural capacity to produce food.
structural capacity to produce food.
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sistem i kapacitete za proizvodnju.
02:30
This means at this point supply
can no longer keep up with demand
can no longer keep up with demand
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To znači da proizvodnja
ne može pratiti potražnju
ne može pratiti potražnju
02:35
despite exploding prices,
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uprkos porastu cijena,
02:37
unless we can commit
to some type of structural change.
to some type of structural change.
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osim ako uvedemo strukturalnu promjenu.
02:42
This time around,
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Ovaj put
02:44
it won't be about stock markets and money.
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se neće raditi o tržištima i novcu,
02:46
It's about people.
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nego o ljudima.
02:48
People could starve
and governments may fall.
and governments may fall.
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Ljudi bi mogli umrijeti od gladi
i vlade bi mogle pasti.
i vlade bi mogle pasti.
02:53
This question of at what point
does supply struggle
does supply struggle
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Problem proizvodnje
02:57
to keep up with surging demand
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i zadovoljavanje potražnje
02:59
is one that started off as an interest
for me while I was trading
for me while I was trading
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me je počeo zanimati dok sam bila trgovac,
03:03
and became an absolute obsession.
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i postao apsolutna opsesija.
03:05
It went from interest to obsession
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Interes je prerastao u opsesiju
03:08
when I realized through my research
how broken the system was
how broken the system was
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kada sam shvatila koliko je sistem loš
03:12
and how very little data was being used
to make such critical decisions.
to make such critical decisions.
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i koliko podataka se koristilo za odluke.
03:17
That's the point I decided to walk away
from a career on Wall Street
from a career on Wall Street
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Tada sam napustila Wall Street
03:21
and start an entrepreneurial journey
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i počela poduzetničku avanturu
03:24
to start Gro Intelligence.
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osnivajući Gro Intelligence.
03:26
At Gro, we focus on bringing this data
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U Gro-u se fokusiramo na podatke
03:30
and doing the work to make it actionable,
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i izvodljiv posao,
03:32
to empower decision-makers at every level.
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da ojačamo donosioce odluka
na svim nivoima.
na svim nivoima.
03:36
But doing this work,
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Ali ovim poslom
03:38
we also realized that the world,
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smo spoznali da svijet,
03:40
not just world leaders,
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ne samo svjetski lideri,
03:42
but businesses and citizens
like every single person in this room,
like every single person in this room,
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nego biznisi i građani kao svi mi,
03:46
lacked an actionable guide
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nemaju upustvo
03:49
on how we can avoid
a coming global food security crisis.
a coming global food security crisis.
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kako da izbjegnu buduću svjetsku krizu.
03:54
And so we built a model,
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Napravili smo i model,
03:56
leveraging the petabytes
of data we sit on,
of data we sit on,
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koristeći petabajte podataka koje imamo
03:59
and we solved for the tipping point.
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i riješili smo sve do kritične tačke.
04:02
Now, no one knows
we've been working on this problem
we've been working on this problem
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Sada, niko ne zna da smo radili na tome
04:06
and this is the first time
that I'm sharing what we discovered.
that I'm sharing what we discovered.
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i ovo je prvi put da dijelim naša otkrića.
04:12
We discovered that the tipping point
is actually a decade from now.
is actually a decade from now.
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Otkrili smo da će se
kritična tačka desiti za deceniju.
kritična tačka desiti za deceniju.
04:18
We discovered that the world
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Otkrili smo da će svijet biti uskraćen
04:20
will be short 214 trillion calories
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za 214 biliona kalorija
04:26
by 2027.
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u 2027. godini.
04:29
The world is not in a position
to fill this gap.
to fill this gap.
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Svijet ne može popuniti tu prazninu.
04:34
Now, you'll notice
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Sada, primjetit ćete
04:36
that the way I'm framing this
is different from how I started,
is different from how I started,
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da je formulacija drugačija od početne
04:41
and that's intentional, because until now
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i to je s namjernom, jer do sada
04:43
this problem has been
quantified using mass:
quantified using mass:
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se ovaj problem određivao masom:
04:46
think kilograms, tons, hectograms,
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u kilogramima, tonama, hektogramima,
04:49
whatever your unit of choice is in mass.
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koju god jedinicu za masu izaberete.
04:52
Why do we talk about food
in terms of weight?
in terms of weight?
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Zašto o hrani pričamo u težinama?
04:55
Because it's easy.
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Jer je jednostavno.
04:56
We can look at a photograph
and determine tonnage on a ship
and determine tonnage on a ship
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Pogledamo fotografiju
i odredimo težinu broda
i odredimo težinu broda
05:00
by using a simple pocket calculator.
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jednostavno koristeci digitron.
05:02
We can weigh trucks,
airplanes and oxcarts.
airplanes and oxcarts.
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Možemo vagati kamione, avione i prikolice.
05:05
But what we care about
in food is nutritional value.
in food is nutritional value.
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Ali za hranu je bitna
nutritivna vrijednost.
nutritivna vrijednost.
05:11
Not all foods are created equal,
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Nije svaka hrana isto sačinjena,
05:14
even if they weigh the same.
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čak i ako isto teži.
05:16
This I learned firsthand
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To znam iz prve ruke
05:19
when I moved from Ethiopia
to the US for university.
to the US for university.
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kada sam se iz Etiopije preselila u SAD.
05:23
Upon my return back home,
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Po povratku kući,
05:25
my father, who was so excited to see me,
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moj otac, koji se radovao sto me vidi
05:28
greeted me by asking why I was fat.
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me pozdravio sa pitanjem zašto sam debela.
05:32
Now, turns out that eating
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Ispostavilo se da me jedenje
05:38
approximately the same amount of food
as I did in Ethiopia, but in America,
as I did in Ethiopia, but in America,
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iste količine hrane iz Etiopije, u Americi
05:43
had actually lent
a certain fullness to my figure.
a certain fullness to my figure.
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dovelo do popunjene linije.
05:48
This is why we should care about calories,
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Zbog toga trebamo brinuti o kalorijama,
05:52
not about mass.
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a ne o masi.
05:54
It is calories which sustain us.
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Kalorije nas održavaju,
05:58
So 214 trillion calories
is a very large number,
is a very large number,
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214 biliona kalorija je veliki broj,
06:04
and not even the most dedicated of us
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i čak ni najposvećeniji od nas
06:07
think in the hundreds
of trillions of calories.
of trillions of calories.
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misle o stotinama i bilionima kalorija.
06:10
So let me break this down differently.
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Dakle, da pojednostavimo.
06:13
An alternative way to think about this
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Alternativni način da se misli o ovome
06:17
is to think about it in Big Macs.
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jeste da se misli u količini Big Macova.
06:20
214 trillion calories.
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214 biliona kalorija.
06:22
A single Big Mac has 563 calories.
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Jedan zalogaj Big Mac-a ima 563 kalorije.
06:26
That means the world will be short
379 billion Big Macs in 2027.
379 billion Big Macs in 2027.
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Znači da svijetu u 2027.
nedostaje 379 milijardi Big Mac-ova.
nedostaje 379 milijardi Big Mac-ova.
06:32
That is more Big Macs
than McDonald's has ever produced.
than McDonald's has ever produced.
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Više Big Mac-ova
nego je McDonalds ikada proizveo.
nego je McDonalds ikada proizveo.
06:37
So how did we get
to these numbers in the first place?
to these numbers in the first place?
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No, kako smo došli do ovih brojeva uopće?
06:42
They're not made up.
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Nisu izmišljeni.
06:44
This map shows you
where the world was 40 years ago.
where the world was 40 years ago.
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Ova mapa prikazuje svijet prije 40 godina.
06:49
It shows you net calorie gaps
in every country in the world.
in every country in the world.
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Vidite neto manjak kalorija svake države.
06:53
Now, simply put,
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Sada, jednostavno, uzmite
06:54
this is just calories
consumed in that country
consumed in that country
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da su to kalorije iz jedne države
06:57
minus calories produced
in that same country.
in that same country.
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minus kalorije proizvedene u toj državi.
07:00
This is not a statement
on malnutrition or anything else.
on malnutrition or anything else.
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Ovo nije izjava o lošoj ishrani i slično.
07:03
It's simply saying how many calories
are consumed in a single year
are consumed in a single year
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Samo govori o godišnjoj
konzumaciji kalorija
konzumaciji kalorija
07:07
minus how many are produced.
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oduzevši proizvedenu količinu.
07:09
Blue countries are net calorie exporters,
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Plave zemlje su izvoznici neto kalorija,
07:13
or self-sufficient.
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ili samo-održive.
07:14
They have some in storage for a rainy day.
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Imaju zalihe za loše dane.
07:17
Red countries are net calorie importers.
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Crvene zemlje su uvoznici neto kalorija.
07:19
The deeper, the brighter the red,
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Što više, to svjetlija crvena,
07:21
the more you're importing.
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više se uvozi.
07:24
40 years ago, such few countries
were net exporters of calories,
were net exporters of calories,
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Prije 40 g. je bila nekolicina izvoznika.
07:28
I could count them with one hand.
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Mogu ih na jednoj ruci izbrojati.
07:31
Most of the African continent,
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Većina afričkog kontinenta,
07:33
Europe, most of Asia,
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Evropa i većina Azije,
07:36
South America excluding Argentina,
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Južna Amerika izuzevđi Argentinu
07:38
were all net importers of calories.
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su sve bile uvoznici kalorija.
07:40
And what's surprising is that China
used to actually be food self-sufficient.
used to actually be food self-sufficient.
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I iznenađujuće -
Kina je bila samo-održiva.
Kina je bila samo-održiva.
07:44
India was a big net importer of calories.
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Indija je bila veliki uvoznik kalorija.
07:49
40 years later, this is today.
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40 godina. kasnije, ovo je današnjica.
07:51
You can see the drastic transformation
that's occurred in the world.
that's occurred in the world.
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Svijet se drastrično transformisao.
07:56
Brazil has emerged
as an agricultural powerhouse.
as an agricultural powerhouse.
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Brazil je postao poljoprivredni gigant.
07:59
Europe is dominant in global agriculture.
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Evropa dominira u svjetskoj poljoprivredi.
08:02
India has actually flipped
from red to blue.
from red to blue.
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Indija se pomjerila iz crvene u plavu.
08:05
It's become food self-sufficient.
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Postala je održiva.
08:08
And China went from that light blue
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I Kina je prešla iz te svijetlo plave
08:10
to the brightest red
that you see on this map.
that you see on this map.
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u najjaču crvenu, koju vidite na mapi.
08:14
How did we get here? What happened?
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Kako su to uspjeli? Šta se desilo?
08:17
So this chart shows you India and Africa.
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Ovaj grafikon prikazuje Indiju i Afriku.
08:21
Blue line is India, red line is Africa.
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Plava linija je Indija,
crvena linija je Afrika.
crvena linija je Afrika.
08:24
How is it that two regions
that started off so similarly
that started off so similarly
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Kako je moguće da regije tako slične,
08:28
in such similar trajectories
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tako sličnih putanja
08:30
take such different paths?
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krenu sasvim drugim putevima?
08:32
India had a green revolution.
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Indija je imala zelenu revoluciju.
08:36
Not a single African country
had a green revolution.
had a green revolution.
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Ni jedna afrička zemlja nije to imala.
08:40
The net outcome?
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Rezultat?
08:41
India is food self-sufficient
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Indija je samo-održiva
08:43
and in the past decade
has actually been exporting calories.
has actually been exporting calories.
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i u posljednjih par decenija
izvozi kalorije.
izvozi kalorije.
08:46
The African continent now imports
over 300 trillion calories a year.
over 300 trillion calories a year.
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Afrika sada uvozi
preko 300 milijardi kalorija godišnje.
preko 300 milijardi kalorija godišnje.
08:51
Then we add China, the green line.
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Onda dodamo Kinu, zelenu liniju.
08:55
Remember the switch
from the blue to the bright red?
from the blue to the bright red?
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Sjetite se promjene sa plave na crvenu?
08:59
What happened and when did it happen?
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Šta se desilo i kada se desilo?
09:02
China seemed to be
on a very similar path to India
on a very similar path to India
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Kina je bila na istom putu kao indija
09:05
until the start of the 21st century,
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sve do početka 21. stoljeća,
09:07
where it suddenly flipped.
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kada se iznenadno promijenila.
09:10
A young and growing population
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Mlada nacija u usponu
09:12
combined with significant economic growth
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kombinovana sa značajnim
ekonomskim razvojem
ekonomskim razvojem
09:15
made its mark with a big bang
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je napravila ovaj pomak sa velikim praskom
09:18
and no one in the markets saw it coming.
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i niko na tržištima to nije predvidio.
09:21
This flip was everything
to global agricultural markets.
to global agricultural markets.
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Promjena je bila sve za svjetska tržišta.
09:25
Luckily now, South America
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Srećom sada, Južna Amerika
09:28
was starting to boom
at the same time as China's rise,
at the same time as China's rise,
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je počela da cvjeta kada i Kina,
09:33
and so therefore, supply and demand
were still somewhat balanced.
were still somewhat balanced.
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pa su se proizvodnja
i potražnja izbalansirale.
i potražnja izbalansirale.
09:38
So the question becomes,
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Pitanje postaje,
09:40
where do we go from here?
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kamo idemo odavdje?
09:43
Oddly enough,
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Čudno,
09:45
it's not a new story,
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to nije nova priča,
09:47
except this time
it's not just a story of China.
it's not just a story of China.
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osim što se ovaj put ne radi samo o Kini.
09:51
It's a continuation of China,
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To je nastavak Kine,
09:53
an amplification of Africa
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pojačanje Afrike
09:55
and a paradigm shift in India.
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i promjena paradigme u Indiji.
09:58
By 2023,
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U 2023. afrička populacija
10:01
Africa's population is forecasted
to overtake that of India's and China's.
to overtake that of India's and China's.
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će to da preuzme od Indije i Kine.
10:06
By 2023, these three regions combined
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U 2023, kombinacija te tri regije
10:08
will make up over half
the world's population.
the world's population.
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će činiti više od pola
svjetske populacije.
svjetske populacije.
10:13
This crossover point starts to present
really interesting challenges
really interesting challenges
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Ta tačka presjeka
predstavlja interesantan izazov
predstavlja interesantan izazov
10:17
for global food security.
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za svjetsku prehrambenu sigurnost.
10:19
And a few years later,
we're hit hard with that reality.
we're hit hard with that reality.
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I par godina kasnije
nas je snašla stvarnost-
nas je snašla stvarnost-
10:24
What does the world look like in 10 years?
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Kako će svijet izgledati za 10 godina?
10:29
So far, as I mentioned,
India has been food self-sufficient.
India has been food self-sufficient.
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Kao što sam spomenula,
Indija je samo-održiva.
Indija je samo-održiva.
10:33
Most forecasters predict
that this will continue.
that this will continue.
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U većini predviđanja to tako i ostaje.
10:37
We disagree.
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Mi se ne slažemo.
10:39
India will soon become
a net importer of calories.
a net importer of calories.
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Indija će ubrzo postati uvoznik kalorija.
10:43
This will be driven both by the fact
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Tome će biti uzrok
10:45
that demand is growing
from a population growth standpoint
from a population growth standpoint
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potražnja na osnovu populacije
10:49
plus economic growth.
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i na ekonomskom osnovu.
10:50
It will be driven by both.
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Oba faktora su drajveri.
10:51
And even if you have
optimistic assumptions
optimistic assumptions
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Čak i ako ste optimistični
10:54
around production growth,
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oko porasta proizvodnje
10:56
it will make that slight flip.
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nastati će blagi preokret.
10:58
That slight flip
can have huge implications.
can have huge implications.
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Taj preokret može imati
velike implikacije.
velike implikacije.
11:03
Next, Africa will continue
to be a net importer of calories,
to be a net importer of calories,
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Zatim, Afrika će i dalje biti
uvoznik kalorija
uvoznik kalorija
11:08
again driven by population growth
and economic growth.
and economic growth.
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ponovo vođena populacijom i ekonomijom.
11:12
This is again assuming optimistic
production growth assumptions.
production growth assumptions.
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Što opet podrazumijeva optimizam.
11:16
Then China,
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Zatim Kina,
11:17
where population is flattening out,
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gdje populacija cvjeta,
11:20
calorie consumption will explode
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konzumacija kalorija će eksplodirati
11:22
because the types of calories consumed
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zbog toga što vrsta konzumiranih kalorija
11:25
are also starting to be
higher-calorie-content foods.
higher-calorie-content foods.
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dolazi iz visoko kalorične hrane.
11:29
And so therefore,
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I zbog toga,
11:31
these three regions combined
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ove tri regije kombinovano
11:33
start to present a really interesting
challenge for the world.
challenge for the world.
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predstavljaju interesantan izazov svijetu.
11:36
Until now, countries with calorie deficits
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Do sada, zemlje sa kalorijskim manjkom
11:40
have been able to meet these deficits
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su mogle da popune deficite
11:43
by importing from surplus regions.
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tako što su uvozile višak iz regiona.
11:45
By surplus regions, I'm talking about
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Kada kažem regije s viškom,
11:48
North America, South America and Europe.
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mislim na Sjevernu Ameriku,
Južnu Ameriku i Evropu.
Južnu Ameriku i Evropu.
11:51
This line chart over here shows you
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Ovaj grafikon prikazuje rast
11:54
the growth and the projected growth
over the next decade of production
over the next decade of production
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očekivani rast proizvodnje
u idućoj deceniji
u idućoj deceniji
11:58
from North America,
South America and Europe.
South America and Europe.
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od Sjeverne Amerike,
Južne Amerike i Evrope.
Južne Amerike i Evrope.
12:00
What it doesn't show you
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Što ne prikazuje
12:02
is that most of this growth is actually
going to come from South America.
going to come from South America.
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jeste da će najveći rast
doći iz Južne Amerike.
doći iz Južne Amerike.
12:06
And most of this growth
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I većina tog rasta
12:08
is going to come
at the huge cost of deforestation.
at the huge cost of deforestation.
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će nastati na osnovu krčenja šuma.
12:14
And so when you look
at the combined demand increase
at the combined demand increase
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Tako da, kada pogledate
na porast potražnje
na porast potražnje
12:18
coming from India, China
and the African continent,
and the African continent,
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koji dolazi iz Indije, Kine i Afrike,
12:22
and look at it versus
the combined increase in production
the combined increase in production
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i uporedite ga sa kombinovanim
rastom produkcije
rastom produkcije
12:25
coming from India,
China, the African continent,
China, the African continent,
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iz Indije, Kine i Afrike,
12:27
North America, South America and Europe,
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Sjeverne Amerike, Južne Amerike i Evrope,
12:31
you are left with
a 214-trillion-calorie deficit,
a 214-trillion-calorie deficit,
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ostanete u deficitu 214 biliona kalorija
12:36
one we can't produce.
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koje ne možemo proizvesti.
12:38
And this, by the way, is actually assuming
we take all the extra calories
we take all the extra calories
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I ovo je pretpostavka da uzmemo sav višak
12:42
produced in North America,
South America and Europe
South America and Europe
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koji se proizvodi u Severnoj Americi,
Južnoj Americi i Evropi
Južnoj Americi i Evropi
12:45
and export them solely
to India, China and Africa.
to India, China and Africa.
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i izvozi ih samo u Indiju, Kinu i Afriku.
12:51
What I just presented to you
is a vision of an impossible world.
is a vision of an impossible world.
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Ovo što vam predstavljam
je vizija svijeta.
je vizija svijeta.
12:55
We can do something to change that.
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Mi možemo da je mijenjamo.
12:58
We can change consumption patterns,
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Možemo mijenjati šablone konzumacije,
13:00
we can reduce food waste,
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i smanjiti otpad hrane
13:03
or we can make a bold commitment
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ili možemo postaviti jasnu obavezu
13:06
to increasing yields exponentially.
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ili povećati prinose.
13:09
Now, I'm not going to go into discussing
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Sada, ću da diskutujem
13:11
changing consumption patterns
or reducing food waste,
or reducing food waste,
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o mijenjanju obrazaca konzumacije
ili smanjenja otpada,
ili smanjenja otpada,
13:14
because those conversations
have been going on for some time now.
have been going on for some time now.
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jer su se ti argumenti već potezali
13:17
Nothing has happened.
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i ništa se nije desilo.
13:18
Nothing has happened
because those arguments
because those arguments
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Ništa se nije desilo jer ti argumenti
13:22
ask the surplus regions
to change their behavior
to change their behavior
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traže od regija s viškom da se mijenjaju
13:25
on behalf of deficit regions.
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zbog regija u deficitu.
13:28
Waiting for others
to change their behavior
to change their behavior
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Čekati druge da mijenjaju ponašanje
13:31
on your behalf, for your survival,
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u vaše ime, za vaš opstanak
13:34
is a terrible idea.
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to je užasna ideja.
13:35
It's unproductive.
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Neproduktivna je.
13:37
So I'd like to suggest an alternative
that comes from the red regions.
that comes from the red regions.
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Tako da bih predložila alternativu
13:43
China, India, Africa.
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koja dolazi od crvenih regija,
Kine, Indije, Afrike.
Kine, Indije, Afrike.
13:46
China is constrained in terms
of how much more land it actually has
of how much more land it actually has
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Kina je ograničena po pitanju zemljišta
13:49
available for agriculture,
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koje je pogodno za poljoprivredu
13:51
and it has massive
water resource availability issues.
water resource availability issues.
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i ima velike poteškoce s vodom.
13:55
So the answer really lies
in India and in Africa.
in India and in Africa.
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Tako da je odgovor u Indiji i Africi.
13:59
India has some upside
in terms of potential yield increases.
in terms of potential yield increases.
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Indija ima potencijal za porast prinosa.
14:04
Now this is the gap
between its current yield
between its current yield
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To je manjak između trenutnog prinosa
14:07
and the theoretical
maximum yield it can achieve.
maximum yield it can achieve.
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i teoretskog maksimalnog prinosa.
14:11
It has some unfarmed
arable land remaining, but not much,
arable land remaining, but not much,
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Ima još neobrađenog zemljišta ali ne puno.
14:14
India is quite land-constrained.
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Indija je ograničena zemljistem.
14:18
Now, the African continent,
on the other hand,
on the other hand,
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Afrički kontinent, s druge strane,
14:20
has vast amounts of arable land remaining
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ima višak obradivog zemljišta
14:24
and significant
upside potential in yields.
upside potential in yields.
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i zamjetan potencijal za prinose.
14:28
Somewhat simplified picture here,
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Pojednostavljena slika ovdje,
14:30
but if you look at sub-Saharan
African yields in corn today,
African yields in corn today,
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ali ako pogledate u saharske prinose žita
14:35
they are where North American
yields were in 1940.
yields were in 1940.
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oni su na istom nivou
kao severnoamerički iz 1940.
kao severnoamerički iz 1940.
14:40
We don't have 70-plus years
to figure this out,
to figure this out,
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3736
Nemamo 70+ godina da to ustanovimo,
14:44
so it means we need to try something new
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što znači da moramo početi nešto novo
14:46
and we need to try something different.
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i nešto drugačije.
14:50
The solution starts with reforms.
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Rješenje je u reformama.
14:53
We need to reform and commercialize
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Moramo reformisat i komercijalizirat
14:57
the agricultural industries in Africa
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poljoprivredu u Africi
15:00
and in India.
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i u Indiji.
15:02
Now, by commercialization --
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Komercijalizacija više nije
15:04
commercialization is not
about commercial farming alone.
about commercial farming alone.
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samo komercijalni usjev.
15:07
Commercialization is about leveraging data
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Komercijalizacija je korišćenje podataka
15:10
to craft better policies,
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zarad boljih zakona,
15:12
to improve infrastructure,
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za poboljšanje infrastrukture,
15:14
to lower the transportation costs
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za smanjenje troškova transporta
15:16
and to completely reform
banking and insurance industries.
banking and insurance industries.
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4256
i za kompletnu reformu
bankarstva i osiguranja.
bankarstva i osiguranja.
15:20
Commercialization
is about taking agriculture
is about taking agriculture
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Komercijalizacija je promjena
15:23
from too risky an endeavor
to one where fortunes can be made.
to one where fortunes can be made.
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poljoprivrede od rizika na profit.
15:27
Commercialization
is not about just farmers.
is not about just farmers.
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Komercijalizacija nije samo o farmerima.
15:30
Commercialization is about
the entire agricultural system.
the entire agricultural system.
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Komercijalizacija je o kompletnom sistemu.
15:36
But commercialization
also means confronting the fact
also means confronting the fact
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Ali ona znači i suočavanje sa činjenicom
15:40
that we can no longer place
the burden of growth
the burden of growth
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da ne postavljamo teret rasta
15:44
on small-scale farmers alone,
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u uske okvire,
15:48
and accepting that commercial farms
and the introduction of commercial farms
and the introduction of commercial farms
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5256
i prihvatimo da komercijalni okviri i uvod
komercijalnih farmi
komercijalnih farmi
15:53
could provide certain economies of scale
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mogu pružiti ekonomije u razvoju
15:56
that even small-scale
farmers can leverage.
farmers can leverage.
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da čak i mali farmeri mogu ojačati.
16:00
It is not about small-scale farming
or commercial agriculture,
or commercial agriculture,
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3976
Ne radi se o malim farmerima
ili komercijalnoj poljoprivredi,
ili komercijalnoj poljoprivredi,
16:04
or big agriculture.
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1856
ili velikoj poljoprivredi.
16:05
We can create the first successful models
of the coexistence and success
of the coexistence and success
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5256
Možemo kreirati uspješne modele simbioze
16:11
of small-scale farming
alongside commercial agriculture.
alongside commercial agriculture.
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sa malim farmerima
i komercijalnom poljoprivredom.
i komercijalnom poljoprivredom.
16:15
This is because, for the first time ever,
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Zato što po prvi put ikada,
16:18
the most critical tool
for success in the industry --
for success in the industry --
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najkritičniji alat
za uspjeh u industriji -
za uspjeh u industriji -
16:21
data and knowledge --
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podaci i znanje -
16:23
is becoming cheaper by the day.
296
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2240
postaju jeftiniji iz dana u dan.
16:26
And very soon, it won't matter
how much money you have
how much money you have
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Ubrzo, neće biti bitno koliko novca imate
16:30
or how big you are
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ili koliko ste veliki
16:31
to make optimal decisions
and maximize probability of success
and maximize probability of success
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da biste donijeli prave odluke i uspjeli
16:35
in reaching your intended goal.
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u postizanju svog cilja.
16:39
Companies like Gro are working
really hard to make this a reality.
really hard to make this a reality.
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Kompanije kao Gro rade na toj stvarnosti.
16:43
So if we can commit
to this new, bold initiative,
to this new, bold initiative,
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Ako prisegnemo
toj novoj hrabroj inicijativi,
toj novoj hrabroj inicijativi,
16:48
to this new, bold change,
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tom novom hrabrom izazovu,
16:50
not only can we solve
the 214-trillion gap that I talked about,
the 214-trillion gap that I talked about,
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5416
ne samo da možemo riješiti
nedostatak od 214 biliona kalorija,
nedostatak od 214 biliona kalorija,
16:55
but we can actually set the world
on a whole new path.
on a whole new path.
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nego možemo usmjeriti svijet na novi put.
16:58
India can remain food self-sufficient
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Indija može ostati samo-održiva
17:03
and Africa can emerge
as the world's next dark blue region.
as the world's next dark blue region.
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i Afrika može biti
nova tamno plava regija.
nova tamno plava regija.
17:09
The new question is,
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2216
Novo pitanje je,
17:11
how do we produce 214 trillion calories
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kako proizvodimo 214 biliona kalorija
17:15
to feed 8.3 billion people by 2027?
310
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da bismo nahranili
8.3 milijarde ljudi u 2027?
8.3 milijarde ljudi u 2027?
17:20
We have the solution.
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Imamo rješenje.
17:22
We just need to act on it.
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Moramo ga samo sprovesti.
17:25
Thank you.
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Hvala.
17:26
(Applause)
314
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Sara Menker - Technology entrepreneurSara Menker is founder and CEO of Gro Intelligence, a tech company that marries the application of machine learning with domain expertise and enables users to understand and predict global food and agriculture markets.
Why you should listen
Sara Menker is founder and CEO of Gro Intelligence, a technology company that is bridging data gaps across the global agriculture sector, empowering decision makers and creating a more informed, connected, efficient and productive global agriculture industry.
Prior to founding Gro, Menker was a vice president in Morgan Stanley's commodities group. She began her career in commodities risk management, where she covered all commodity markets, and she subsequently moved to trading, where she managed a trading portfolio. Menker is a trustee of the Mandela Institute For Development Studies (MINDS) and a trustee of the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT). She was named a Global Young Leader by the World Economic Forum and is a fellow of the African Leadership Initiative of the Aspen Institute.
Sara Menker | Speaker | TED.com