TED2003
Jeff Hawkins: How brain science will change computing
Jeff Hawkins o tome kako će znanost o mozgu promijeniti tehnologiju računala
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Jeff Hawkins, tvorac Treoa, nas primorava da mozak doživimo na drugačiji način -- da ga ne doživimo poput brzog procesora, već kao memorijski sustav koji pohranjuje i nanovo pregledava iskustva kako bi nam pomogao inteligentno predvidjeti ono što će se tek dogoditi.
Jeff Hawkins - Computer designer, brain researcher
Jeff Hawkins pioneered the development of PDAs such as the Palm and Treo. Now he's trying to understand how the human brain really works, and adapt its method -- which he describes as a deep system for storing memory -- to create new kinds of computers and tools. Full bio
Jeff Hawkins pioneered the development of PDAs such as the Palm and Treo. Now he's trying to understand how the human brain really works, and adapt its method -- which he describes as a deep system for storing memory -- to create new kinds of computers and tools. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:25
I do two things: I design mobile computers and I study brains.
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Bavim se dvjema stvarima. Kreiram mobilna računala i bavim se proučavanjem mozga.
00:29
And today's talk is about brains and,
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Današnji je govor o mozgu i,
00:31
yay, somewhere I have a brain fan out there.
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odlično, tamo je negdje fan mozga.
00:33
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
00:35
I'm going to, if I can have my first slide up here,
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Govorit ću, ako mi možete staviti prvi dijapozitiv,
00:37
and you'll see the title of my talk and my two affiliations.
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vidjet ćete naslov mog govora i moje druge dvije podružnice.
00:41
So what I'm going to talk about is why we don't have a good brain theory,
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Ono o čemu ću pričati je zašto ne postoji dobra teorija o mozgu,
00:45
why it is important that we should develop one and what we can do about it.
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zašto je važno da razvijemo takvu teoriju i što možemo poduzeti po tom pitanju.
00:48
And I'll try to do all that in 20 minutes. I have two affiliations.
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Pokušat ću to napraviti u 20 minuta. Imam dvije podružnice.
00:51
Most of you know me from my Palm and Handspring days,
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Većina vas me poznaje još iz vremena kada sam radio u tvrtki Palm and Handspring,
00:54
but I also run a nonprofit scientific research institute
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ali vodim i neprofitni znanstveni institut
00:57
called the Redwood Neuroscience Institute in Menlo Park,
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neuroznanstveni institut Redwood u Menlo Parku
00:59
and we study theoretical neuroscience,
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gdje se bavimo teorijskom neuroznanošću
01:01
and we study how the neocortex works.
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i načinom rada neokorteksa.
01:03
I'm going to talk all about that.
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O tome ću vam pričati.
01:05
I have one slide on my other life, the computer life, and that's the slide here.
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Jedan dijapozitiv je o mom drugom životu, računalnom životu, to je ovaj dijapozitiv ovdje.
01:08
These are some of the products I've worked on over the last 20 years,
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Ovo su neki od proizvoda na kojima radim zadnjih 20 godina,
01:11
starting back from the very original laptop to some of the first tablet computers
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počevši od prvotnih prijenosnih računala do nekih početnih tablet računala
01:15
and so on, and ending up most recently with the Treo,
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i tako dalje, završivši, nedavno, s Treom
01:17
and we're continuing to do this.
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i nastavljamo s daljim radom na tome.
01:19
And I've done this because I really believe that mobile computing
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Bavim se ovime jer iskreno vjerujem da je mobilno računalstvo
01:21
is the future of personal computing, and I'm trying to make the world
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budućnost osobnog računalstva te, radeći na ovome, pokušavam učiniti svijet
01:24
a little bit better by working on these things.
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malo boljim.
01:27
But this was, I have to admit, all an accident.
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No, moram priznati, ovo je sve bila slučajnost.
01:29
I really didn't want to do any of these products
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Zaista nisam želio napraviti niti jedan od ovih proizvoda
01:31
and very early in my career I decided
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i već sam na početku svoje karijere odlučio
01:33
I was not going to be in the computer industry.
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kako neću raditi u računalnoj industriji.
01:36
And before I tell you about that, I just have to tell you
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I prije nego što vam krenem pričati o tome, moram vam reći
01:38
this one little picture of graffiti there I picked off the web the other day.
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o ovoj maloj slici grafita koju sam pronašao neki dan na Internetu.
01:40
I was looking for a picture of graffiti, little text input language,
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Tražio sam fotografiju grafita, malenog tekstualnog oblika,
01:43
and I found the website dedicated to teachers who want to make these,
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i pronašao sam web stranicu posvećenu učiteljima koji žele napraviti takvo nešto
01:46
you know, the script writing things across the top of their blackboard,
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iznad svojih školskih ploča
01:49
and they had added graffiti to it, and I'm sorry about that.
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tamo su dodali te grafite i sada mi je žao zbog ovoga.
01:52
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:54
So what happened was, when I was young and got out of engineering school
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Dogodilo se sljedeće: kada sam bio mlad i kada sam završio računalno inženjerstvo
01:59
at Cornell in '79, I decided -- I went to work for Intel and
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na Cornellu 1979. godine, počeo sam raditi za Intel.
02:03
I was in the computer industry -- and three months into that,
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Radio sam u toj industriji i nakon tri mjeseca
02:06
I fell in love with something else, and I said, "I made the wrong career choice here,"
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zavolio sam nešto drugo te sam rekao „odabrao sam krivo područje u karijeri“,
02:10
and I fell in love with brains.
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zaljubio sam se u mozak.
02:13
This is not a real brain. This is a picture of one, a line drawing.
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Ovo nije pravi mozak. Ovo je slika mozga napravljena tehnikom ocrtavanja.
02:16
But I don't remember exactly how it happened,
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Ne znam kako se to točno dogodilo,
02:19
but I have one recollection, which was pretty strong in my mind.
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ali sjećam se jednog događaja koji je vrlo istaknut u mojem sjećanju.
02:22
In September 1979, Scientific American came out
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U rujnu 1979. godine, izašao je broj časopisa Scientific American
02:25
with a single topic issue about the brain. And it was quite good.
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posvećen jednoj temi - mozgu. Bio je to vrlo dobar broj.
02:28
It was one of the best issues ever. And they talked about the neuron
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Jedno od najboljih izdanja. U časopisu je bila riječ o neuronima,
02:31
and development and disease and vision and all the things
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razvoju, bolestima, vidu i svim drugim stvarima
02:33
you might want to know about brains. It was really quite impressive.
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koje biste željeli znati o mozgu. Zapravo je bilo vrlo impresivno.
02:36
And one might have the impression that we really knew a lot about brains.
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Dobijete dojam kako puno toga znamo o mozgu.
02:39
But the last article in that issue was written by Francis Crick of DNA fame.
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Međutim, zadnji je članak tog izdanja napisao Francis Crick, poznat po otkriću DNK.
02:43
Today is, I think, the 50th anniversary of the discovery of DNA.
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Mislim da je danas 50-ta obljetnica otkrića DNK.
02:46
And he wrote a story basically saying,
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Crick je napisao članak u kojem u biti kaže,
02:48
well, this is all well and good, but you know what,
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„sve je to super, ali po pitanju mozga
02:51
we don't know diddley squat about brains
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mi pojma nemamo,
02:53
and no one has a clue how these things work,
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nitko ne zna kako sve to funkcionira
02:55
so don't believe what anyone tells you.
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tako da ne vjerujte svemu što vam netko kaže“.
02:57
This is a quote from that article. He said, "What is conspicuously lacking,"
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Ovo je citat iz tog članka. On kaže, „Ono što očito nedostaje“,
03:00
he's a very proper British gentleman so, "What is conspicuously lacking
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on je uglađeni britanski gospodin, tako da, „Ono što očito nedostaje jest
03:04
is a broad framework of ideas in which to interpret these different approaches."
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široki okvir ideja putem kojeg bismo interpretirali različite pristupe mozgu“.
03:07
I thought the word framework was great.
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Mislio sam da je riječ „okvir“ odlična.
03:09
He didn't say we didn't even have a theory. He says,
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Nije čak niti rekao kako nemamo teoriju. On kaže
03:11
we don't even know how to begin to think about it --
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da niti ne znamo kako bismo trebali započeti misliti o tome --
03:13
we don't even have a framework.
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nemamo niti okvir.
03:15
We are in the pre-paradigm days, if you want to use Thomas Kuhn.
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Ako želimo parafrazirati Thomasa Kuhna – trenutno smo u razdoblju prije paradigmi.
03:18
And so I fell in love with this, and said look,
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I tako sam se zaljubio u ovo i rekao „gledajte,
03:21
we have all this knowledge about brains. How hard can it be?
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posjedujemo svo to znanje o mozgu. Koliko teško može biti?
03:24
And this is something we can work on my lifetime. I felt I could make a difference,
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To je nešto čime se možemo baviti za moga života“. Mislio sam da mogu napraviti nešto,
03:27
and so I tried to get out of the computer business, into the brain business.
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pa sam pokušao otići iz svijeta računalstva u svijet mozga.
03:31
First, I went to MIT, the AI lab was there,
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Prvo sam otišao na MIT gdje imaju laboratorij za umjetnu inteligenciju
03:33
and I said, well, I want to build intelligent machines, too,
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i rekao sam im „i ja želim raditi inteligentne strojeve,
03:35
but the way I want to do it is to study how brains work first.
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ali način na koji to želim napraviti je tako da prvo proučim kako radi mozak“.
03:38
And they said, oh, you don't need to do that.
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Rekli su mi „ma ne trebate to raditi.
03:41
We're just going to program computers; that's all we need to do.
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Mi ćemo samo programirati računala, samo to i moramo raditi“.
03:43
And I said, no, you really ought to study brains. They said, oh, you know,
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Ja sam im rekao „ne, stvarno biste trebali proučiti mozak“. „Znate,
03:46
you're wrong. And I said, no, you're wrong, and I didn't get in.
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u krivu ste“, rekli su mi. Ja sam im rekao da su oni u krivu i nisu me primili.
03:48
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
03:50
But I was a little disappointed -- pretty young -- but I went back again
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Bio sam malo razočaran -- poprilično mlad, ali nakon nekoliko sam godina
03:52
a few years later and this time was in California, and I went to Berkeley.
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pokušao ponovno i taj sam put otišao u Kaliforniju, na Berkeley.
03:55
And I said, I'll go in from the biological side.
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Rekao sam, pokušat ću pristupiti problemu s biološke strane.
03:59
So I got in -- in the Ph.D. program in biophysics, and I was, all right,
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Primili su me na doktorski studij biofizike; mislio sam „u redu,
04:02
I'm studying brains now, and I said, well, I want to study theory.
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sada proučavam mozak“ i rekao sam im „želim proučiti teoriju“.
04:05
And they said, oh no, you can't study theory about brains.
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A oni su rekli „a ne, ne možeš se baviti teorijom mozga.
04:07
That's not something you do. You can't get funded for that.
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To se ne radi. Ne možeš dobiti sredstva za tako nešto.
04:09
And as a graduate student, you can't do that. So I said, oh my gosh.
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A kao doktorand time se ne možeš baviti“. „Bog moj mili“, rekao sam.
04:13
I was very depressed. I said, but I can make a difference in this field.
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Bio sam vrlo deprimiran. „Ali mogu biti od značaja u ovom području“, rekao sam.
04:15
So what I did is I went back in the computer industry
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Sljedeće što sam napravio je da sam se vratio računalnoj industriji
04:18
and said, well, I'll have to work here for a while, do something.
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i rekao „izgleda da ću neko vrijeme morati raditi ovdje, nešto napraviti“.
04:20
That's when I designed all those computer products.
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Tada sam kreirao sve one računalne proizvode.
04:23
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
04:24
And I said, I want to do this for four years, make some money,
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Rekao sam „želim se ovime baviti četiri godine, zaraditi nešto novaca,
04:27
like I was having a family, and I would mature a bit,
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osnovati obitelj, malo ću sazrijeti,
04:31
and maybe the business of neuroscience would mature a bit.
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možda će i područje neuroznanosti malo sazrijeti“.
04:34
Well, it took longer than four years. It's been about 16 years.
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Prošlo je više od četiri godine. Već je 16 godina tome.
04:37
But I'm doing it now, and I'm going to tell you about it.
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Ali sada se bavim time i pričat ću vam o tome.
04:39
So why should we have a good brain theory?
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Zašto nam je potrebna dobra teorija o mozgu?
04:42
Well, there's lots of reasons people do science.
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Ljudi se bave znanošću iz raznoraznih razloga.
04:45
One is -- the most basic one is -- people like to know things.
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Jedan on njih -- onaj temeljni -- je taj što ljudi vole znati stvari.
04:48
We're curious, and we just go out and get knowledge, you know?
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Znatiželjni smo, pa odemo u svijet i pokupimo znanje, razumijete?
04:50
Why do we study ants? Well, it's interesting.
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Zašto proučavamo mrave? Zato što je zanimljivo.
04:52
Maybe we'll learn something really useful about it, but it's interesting and fascinating.
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Možda ćemo saznati nešto vrlo korisno, ali zanimljivo ih je i fascinantno proučavati.
04:55
But sometimes, a science has some other attributes
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Ponekad, neka znanost ima neke druge karakteristike
04:57
which makes it really, really interesting.
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koje ju čine vrlo zanimljivom.
04:59
Sometimes a science will tell something about ourselves,
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Ponekad nam znanost kaže nešto o nama,
05:02
it'll tell us who we are.
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o tome tko smo.
05:03
Rarely, you know: evolution did this and Copernicus did this,
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Ponekad, kao u slučaju evolucije i Kopernikovog heliocentričnog sustava,
05:06
where we have a new understanding of who we are.
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dobijemo novo saznanje o tome tko smo.
05:08
And after all, we are our brains. My brain is talking to your brain.
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Na kraju krajeva, mi smo naši mozgovi. Moj mozak razgovara s vašim mozgom.
05:12
Our bodies are hanging along for the ride, but my brain is talking to your brain.
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Naša su tijela tu suvišna, moj mozak razgovara s vašim mozgom.
05:15
And if we want to understand who we are and how we feel and perceive,
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I ako želimo razumijeti tko smo, kako osjećamo i doživljavamo svijet
05:18
we really understand what brains are.
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tada trebamo razumijeti što je mozak.
05:20
Another thing is sometimes science
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Još nešto, ponekad znanost
05:22
leads to really big societal benefits and technologies,
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dovodi do značajnih društvenih i tehnoloških dobrobiti
05:24
or businesses, or whatever, that come out of it. And this is one, too,
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ili biznisa ili čega god što je proizašlo iz znanosti. I ovo je takav primjer
05:26
because when we understand how brains work, we're going to be able
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jer kada shvatimo kako mozak funkcionira, bit ćemo sposobni
05:29
to build intelligent machines, and I think that's actually a good thing on the whole,
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napraviti inteligentne strojeve, što je po meni, globalno gledajući, dobra stvar,
05:32
and it's going to have tremendous benefits to society,
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te će tako nešto imati ogromne prednosti za društvo,
05:34
just like a fundamental technology.
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upravo poput fundamentalne tehnologije.
05:36
So why don't we have a good theory of brains?
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Zašto nemamo dobru teoriju o mozgu?
05:38
And people have been working on it for 100 years.
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A ljudi rade na njoj već 100 godina.
05:41
Well, let's first take a look at what normal science looks like.
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Pogledajmo kako funkcionira normalna znanost.
05:43
This is normal science.
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Ovo je normalna znanost.
05:45
Normal science is a nice balance between theory and experimentalists.
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Normalna je znanost temeljena na dobro uravnoteženoj teoriji i praksi.
05:49
And so the theorist guys say, well, I think this is what's going on,
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Teoretičari kažu „mislimo da se tu događa ovo“,
05:51
and the experimentalist says, no, you're wrong.
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a eksperimentalisti kažu „u krivu ste“.
05:53
And it goes back and forth, you know?
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I tako se izmjenjuju.
05:55
This works in physics. This works in geology. But if this is normal science,
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Ovo funkcionira u fizici. U geologiji. Ali ako tako funkcionira normalna znanost
05:57
what does neuroscience look like? This is what neuroscience looks like.
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kako funkcionira neuroznanost? Ona funkcionira ovako:
06:00
We have this mountain of data, which is anatomy, physiology and behavior.
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imamo brdo podataka koje sačinjavaju anatomija, fiziologija i ponašanje.
06:05
You can't imagine how much detail we know about brains.
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Ne možete niti pojmiti koliko detalja znamo o mozgu.
06:08
There were 28,000 people who went to the neuroscience conference this year,
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Ove je godine 28.000 ljudi prisustvovalo neuroznanstvenoj konferenciji
06:12
and every one of them is doing research in brains.
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i svatko se od njih bavi istraživanjem mozga.
06:14
A lot of data. But there's no theory. There's a little, wimpy box on top there.
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Puno podataka. No, nema teorije. Samo beznačajni kvadratić ondje gore.
06:18
And theory has not played a role in any sort of grand way in the neurosciences.
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Teorija nije imala nikakvu značajnu ulogu u neuroznanosti.
06:23
And it's a real shame. Now why has this come about?
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Što je velika šteta. Zašto je tome tako?
06:26
If you ask neuroscientists, why is this the state of affair,
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Ako pitate neuroznanstvenika zašto je tomu tako,
06:28
they'll first of all admit it. But if you ask them, they'll say,
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najprije će to priznati. Ali ako ih pitate reći će da
06:31
well, there's various reasons we don't have a good brain theory.
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postoje brojni razlozi zašto nemamo dobru teoriju o mozgu.
06:34
Some people say, well, we don't still have enough data,
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Neki će reći da nemamo dovoljno podataka,
06:36
we need to get more information, there's all these things we don't know.
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potrebno nam je još podataka, toliko toga još ne znamo.
06:39
Well, I just told you there's so much data coming out your ears.
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Upravo sam vam rekao da imate toliko podataka da vam izlaze na uši.
06:42
We have so much information, we don't even know how to begin to organize it.
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Imamo toliko podataka da ne znamo kako bismo ih organizirali.
06:45
What good is more going to do?
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Što će nam više podataka?
06:47
Maybe we'll be lucky and discover some magic thing, but I don't think so.
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Možda nam se posreći, pa pronađemo neko magično objašnjenje, ali sumnjam.
06:50
This is actually a symptom of the fact that we just don't have a theory.
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Simptom je to nedostatka teorije.
06:53
We don't need more data -- we need a good theory about it.
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Ne treba nam još podataka, treba nam dobra teorija.
06:56
Another one is sometimes people say, well, brains are so complex,
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Sljedeće što ljudi kažu jest da je mozak prekompliciran
06:59
it'll take another 50 years.
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i da će nam trebati još 50 godina do teorije.
07:01
I even think Chris said something like this yesterday.
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Mislim da je Chris jučer rekao ovako nešto.
07:03
I'm not sure what you said, Chris, but something like,
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Nisam siguran što si točno rekao Chris, ali rekao si nešto kao
07:05
well, it's one of the most complicated things in the universe. That's not true.
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„to je jedna od najkompliciranijih stvari u svemiru“. To nije istina.
07:08
You're more complicated than your brain. You've got a brain.
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Vi ste kompliciraniji od svojeg mozga. Vi imate mozak.
07:10
And it's also, although the brain looks very complicated,
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Isto tako, iako se mozak čini vrlo kompliciranim,
07:12
things look complicated until you understand them.
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stvari su komplicirane sve dok ih ne razumijete.
07:15
That's always been the case. And so all we can say, well,
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Uvijek je tako. Sve što možemo reći je da je
07:18
my neocortex, which is the part of the brain I'm interested in, has 30 billion cells.
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moj neokorteks, onaj dio mozga koji me zanima, sačinjen od 30 milijardi stanica.
07:22
But, you know what? It's very, very regular.
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Ali znate što? Iznimno je normalan.
07:24
In fact, it looks like it's the same thing repeated over and over and over again.
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Zapravo, izgleda kao jedna te ista stvar nanovno i nanovo ponovljena.
07:27
It's not as complex as it looks. That's not the issue.
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Nije toliko kompliciran kako izgleda. Nije u tome problem.
07:30
Some people say, brains can't understand brains.
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Neki ljudi tvrde da „mozgovi ne mogu razumijeti mozgove“.
07:32
Very Zen-like. Whoo. (Laughter)
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Vrlo zen stajalište. Super. Zar ne –
07:35
You know,
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(Smijeh)
07:36
it sounds good, but why? I mean, what's the point?
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Zvuči dobro, ali zašto? Koja je svrha toga?
07:39
It's just a bunch of cells. You understand your liver.
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Mozak je samo skupina stanica. Razumijete jetru.
07:42
It's got a lot of cells in it too, right?
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I ona se sastoji od stanica, zar ne?
07:44
So, you know, I don't think there's anything to that.
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Zato ne mislim da je tome tako.
07:46
And finally, some people say, well, you know,
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I na kraju, neki ljudi kažu „znaš,
07:48
I don't feel like a bunch of cells, you know. I'm conscious.
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ne osjećam se kao hrpa stanica. Svjestan sam.
07:52
I've got this experience, I'm in the world, you know.
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Imam svo to iskustvo, u svijetu sam, razumiješ.
07:54
I can't be just a bunch of cells. Well, you know,
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Ne mogu biti samo hrpa stanica“.
07:56
people used to believe there was a life force to be living,
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Prije su ljudi vjerovali da je za život potrebna životna energija,
07:59
and we now know that's really not true at all.
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sada znamo da to uopće nije točno.
08:01
And there's really no evidence that says -- well, other than people
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Ne postoje dokazi koji tvrde, osim ljudi koji ne vjeruju,
08:04
just have disbelief that cells can do what they do.
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da stanice ne mogu raditi ono što rade.
08:06
And so, if some people have fallen into the pit of metaphysical dualism,
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Ako su neki ljudi zapali u rupu metafizičkog dualizma,
08:09
some really smart people, too, but we can reject all that.
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uključujući i neke pametne ljude, mi to možemo pobiti.
08:12
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
08:14
No, I'm going to tell you there's something else,
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Ne, reći ću vam da se radi o nečem drugom,
08:17
and it's really fundamental, and this is what it is:
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nečem vrlo temeljnom, a to je sljedeće:
08:19
there's another reason why we don't have a good brain theory,
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postoji još jedan razlog nepostojanja dobre teorije o mozgu,
08:21
and it's because we have an intuitive, strongly-held,
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a to je zbog toga što imamo intuitivnu, ustaljenu,
08:24
but incorrect assumption that has prevented us from seeing the answer.
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ali netočnu pretpostavku koja nas sprečava da vidimo odgovor.
08:29
There's something we believe that just, it's obvious, but it's wrong.
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Postoji nešto u što vjerujemo, što je očito, ali je krivo.
08:32
Now, there's a history of this in science and before I tell you what it is,
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Postoji povijest toga u znanosti i prije nego što vam kažem o čemu se radi,
08:36
I'm going to tell you a bit about the history of it in science.
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reći ću vam nešto o povijesti toga u znanosti.
08:38
You look at some other scientific revolutions,
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Pogledajte neke druge znanstvene revolucije,
08:40
and this case, I'm talking about the solar system, that's Copernicus,
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primjerice Kopernikov sunčev sustav,
08:42
Darwin's evolution, and tectonic plates, that's Wegener.
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Darwinovu teoriju evolucije, Wagnerove tektonske ploče.
08:45
They all have a lot in common with brain science.
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Sve one imaju puno toga zajedničkog s teorijom mozga.
08:48
First of all, they had a lot of unexplained data. A lot of it.
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Prvo, imale su puno neobjašnjenih podataka. Hrpe njih.
08:51
But it got more manageable once they had a theory.
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Ali podaci su postali razumljiviji kada se razvila teorija.
08:54
The best minds were stumped -- really, really smart people.
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Najpametniji su ljudi bili zbunjeni, stvarno, stvarno pametni ljudi.
08:57
We're not smarter now than they were then.
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Mi sada nismo ništa pametniji od njih tada.
08:59
It just turns out it's really hard to think of things,
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Ispada da je vrlo teško razmišljati o stvarima,
09:01
but once you've thought of them, it's kind of easy to understand it.
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ali kada jednom o njima promislite, nekako ih jednostavnije razumijete.
09:03
My daughters understood these three theories
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Moje su kćeri razumijele ove tri teorije
09:05
in their basic framework by the time they were in kindergarten.
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u njihovim temeljnim okvirima do trenutka kada su stigle u vrtić.
09:08
And now it's not that hard, you know, here's the apple, here's the orange,
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I nije to tako teško, ovo je jabuka, ovo je narandža
09:11
you know, the Earth goes around, that kind of stuff.
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i Zemlja kruži oko Sunca, takve stvari.
09:14
Finally, another thing is the answer was there all along,
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I na kraju, odgovor je uvijek bio ovdje,
09:16
but we kind of ignored it because of this obvious thing, and that's the thing.
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ali smo ga ignorirali zbog te očite stvari, i u tome je stvar.
09:19
It was an intuitive, strong-held belief that was wrong.
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Bilo je to intuitivno, čvrsto držano uvjerenje koje je krivo.
09:22
In the case of the solar system, the idea that the Earth is spinning
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U slučaju solarnog sustava, zamisao da se Zemlja vrti
09:25
and the surface of the Earth is going like a thousand miles an hour,
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i da se površina Zemlje kreće tisuću milja na sat
09:28
and the Earth is going through the solar system about a million miles an hour.
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te da se Zemlja kreće sunčevim sustavom milijun milja na sat.
09:31
This is lunacy. We all know the Earth isn't moving.
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To je ludo. Svi znamo da se Zemlja ne kreće.
09:33
Do you feel like you're moving a thousand miles an hour?
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Imate li osjećaj da se krećete tisuću milja na sat?
09:35
Of course not. You know, and someone who said,
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Naravno da ne. I netko tko bi rekao
09:37
well, it was spinning around in space and it's so huge,
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da se Zemlja vrti u svemiru koji je ogroman,
09:39
they would lock you up, and that's what they did back then.
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zatvorili bi ga. Prije su to i radili.
09:41
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
09:42
So it was intuitive and obvious. Now what about evolution?
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Bilo je intuitivno i očito. Što je s evolucijom?
09:45
Evolution's the same thing. We taught our kids, well, the Bible says,
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Ista stvar. Naučili smo djecu - u Bibliji piše
09:48
you know, God created all these species, cats are cats, dogs are dogs,
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da je Bog stvorio sve te vrste životinja, mačke su mačke, psi su psi,
09:50
people are people, plants are plants, they don't change.
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biljke su biljke, takve se stvari ne mijenjaju.
09:53
Noah put them on the Ark in that order, blah, blah, blah. And, you know,
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Noa ih je stavio u arku tim redoslijedom, bla, bla, bla. Činjenica je da
09:57
the fact is, if you believe in evolution, we all have a common ancestor,
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ako vjerujete u evoluciju tada svi imamo zajedničkog pretka
10:01
and we all have a common ancestry with the plant in the lobby.
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i svi smo povezani zajedničkim pretkom s biljkom u predvorju.
10:04
This is what evolution tells us. And, it's true. It's kind of unbelievable.
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Evolucija nam to kaže. I to je istina. Nevjerojatno je.
10:07
And the same thing about tectonic plates, you know?
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Isto je i s tektonskim pločama.
10:10
All the mountains and the continents are kind of floating around
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Sve planine i kontinenti na neki način plutaju
10:12
on top of the Earth, you know? It's like, it doesn't make any sense.
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na Zemlji, znate? Nema to nikakvog smisla.
10:16
So what is the intuitive, but incorrect assumption,
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Koja je to intuitivna, ali netočna pretpostavka
10:20
that's kept us from understanding brains?
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koja nas priječi u razumijevanju mozga?
10:22
Now I'm going to tell it to you, and it's going to seem obvious that that is correct,
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Sada ću vam je reći i činit će se očitim kako je to ono točno,
10:24
and that's the point, right? Then I'm going to have to make an argument
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i u tome je stvar, zar ne? Nakon toga ću vam morati dokazati
10:26
why you're incorrect about the other assumption.
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zašto ste u krivu što se tiče druge pretpostavke.
10:28
The intuitive but obvious thing is that somehow intelligence
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Intuitivno, ali očito, je da je inteligencija
10:31
is defined by behavior,
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određena ponašanjem;
10:33
that we are intelligent because of the way that we do things
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inteligentni smo zbog načina na koji radim stvari
10:35
and the way we behave intelligently, and I'm going to tell you that's wrong.
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i inteligentnog ponašanja – reći ću vam kako je takvo mišljenje pogrešno.
10:38
What it is is intelligence is defined by prediction.
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Inteligencija je određena predviđanjem.
10:40
And I'm going to work you through this in a few slides here,
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Proći ćemo kroz to pomoću nekoliko dijapozitiva,
10:43
give you an example of what this means. Here's a system.
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dat ću vam primjere što to točno znači. Ovo je sustav.
10:47
Engineers like to look at systems like this. Scientists like to look at systems like this.
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Inženjeri vole promatrati sustav na ovaj način. Znanstvenici na ovaj.
10:50
They say, well, we have a thing in a box, and we have its inputs and its outputs.
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Oni kažu – imamo stvar u kvadratu i imamo njezine unose i iznose.
10:53
The AI people said, well, the thing in the box is a programmable computer
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Ljudi koji se bave umjetnom inteligencijom rekoše „stvar u kvadratu je programirljivo računalo
10:56
because that's equivalent to a brain, and we'll feed it some inputs
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jer je to ekvivalent mozgu. Programirat ćemo neke unose
10:58
and we'll get it to do something, have some behavior.
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i učinit ćemo ga da nešto radi, da se nekako ponaša“.
11:00
And Alan Turing defined the Turing test, which is essentially saying,
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Alan Turing je odredio Turingov test koji, u biti, tvrdi
11:03
we'll know if something's intelligent if it behaves identical to a human.
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da ćemo znati je li nešto inteligentno ako se ponaša isto kao čovjek.
11:06
A behavioral metric of what intelligence is,
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To je bihevioralni metrični sustav inteligencije
11:09
and this has stuck in our minds for a long period of time.
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i to je ostalo dugo vremena u našem načinu razmišljanja.
11:12
Reality though, I call it real intelligence.
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Ja to zovem stvarna inteligencija.
11:14
Real intelligence is built on something else.
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Stvarna se inteligencija temelji na nečem drugom.
11:16
We experience the world through a sequence of patterns, and we store them,
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Mi svijet doživljavamo kroz niz obrazaca koje zatim pohranimo
11:20
and we recall them. And when we recall them, we match them up
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i kojih se prisjetimo. Kada ih se prisjetimo, uspoređujemo ih
11:23
against reality, and we're making predictions all the time.
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sa stvarnošću i putem njih neprestano predviđamo.
11:27
It's an eternal metric. There's an eternal metric about us sort of saying,
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To je vječni metrični sustav. U nama je takav metrični sustav koji nam govori
11:30
do we understand the world? Am I making predictions? And so on.
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razumijemo li svijet? Predviđam li? I tako dalje.
11:33
You're all being intelligent right now, but you're not doing anything.
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Svi ste sada inteligentni bez da išta radite.
11:35
Maybe you're scratching yourself, or picking your nose,
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Ne znam, možda se svrbite ili kopate nos,
11:37
I don't know, but you're not doing anything right now,
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ali upravo sada ne radite ništa,
11:39
but you're being intelligent; you're understanding what I'm saying.
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ali jeste inteligentni, razumijete što vam sada govorim.
11:42
Because you're intelligent and you speak English,
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Zbog toga što ste inteligentni i govorite engleski
11:44
you know what word is at the end of this -- (Silence)
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znate koja je riječ na kraju ove -- (Tišina)
11:45
sentence.
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rečenice.
11:47
The word came into you, and you're making these predictions all the time.
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Sjetili ste se riječi i takva predviđanja radite neprestano.
11:50
And then, what I'm saying is,
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Ono što tvrdim je
11:52
is that the eternal prediction is the output in the neocortex.
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da su takva neprestana predviđanja „output“ neokorteksa.
11:54
And that somehow, prediction leads to intelligent behavior.
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Ta predviđanja nekako dovode do inteligentnog ponašanja.
11:57
And here's how that happens. Let's start with a non-intelligent brain.
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Evo kako se to događa. Počnimo s neinteligentnim mozgom.
12:00
Well I'll argue a non-intelligent brain, we got hold of an old brain,
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Tvrdit ćemo ovo s neinteligentnim mozgom, starim mozgom,
12:04
and we're going to say it's like a non-mammal, like a reptile,
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koji nije poput mozga sisavaca, već je reptilski mozak,
12:07
so I'll say, an alligator; we have an alligator.
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aligatorski, imamo mozak aligatora.
12:09
And the alligator has some very sophisticated senses.
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Aligator ima vrlo sofisticirana osjetila.
12:12
It's got good eyes and ears and touch senses and so on,
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Ima vrlo dobar vid i sluh, osjetilo dodira i tako dalje,
12:15
a mouth and a nose. It has very complex behavior.
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usta i nos. Ima složen način ponašanja.
12:19
It can run and hide. It has fears and emotions. It can eat you, you know.
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Može trčati i može se sakriti. Ima strahove i osjećaje. Može vas pojesti.
12:23
It can attack. It can do all kinds of stuff.
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Može napasti. Može svašta raditi.
12:27
But we don't consider the alligator very intelligent, not like in a human sort of way.
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Ali aligatora ne smatramo vrlo inteligentnim, barem ne na ljudski način.
12:32
But it has all this complex behavior already.
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Ali već posjeduje svo to komplicirano ponašanje.
12:34
Now, in evolution, what happened?
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Što se dogodilo tijekom evolucije?
12:36
First thing that happened in evolution with mammals,
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Prvo što se dogodilo tijekom evolucije kod sisavaca
12:39
we started to develop a thing called the neocortex.
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je to da smo razvili nešto što se zove neokorteks.
12:41
And I'm going to represent the neocortex here,
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Dočarat ću neokorteks
12:43
by this box that's sticking on top of the old brain.
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pomoću ovog kvadrata koji se nalazi iznad starog mozga.
12:45
Neocortex means new layer. It is a new layer on top of your brain.
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Neokorteks znači novi sloj. To je novi sloj na našem mozgu.
12:48
If you don't know it, it's the wrinkly thing on the top of your head that,
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Ako ne znate, to je ono smežurano na vrhu vašeg mozga,
12:51
it's got wrinkly because it got shoved in there and doesn't fit.
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smežurano je tako jer je ugurano unutra, a ne stane tamo.
12:54
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
12:55
No, really, that's what it is. It's about the size of a table napkin.
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Ne, stvarno je to to. Približno je veličine salvete.
12:57
And it doesn't fit, so it gets all wrinkly. Now look at how I've drawn this here.
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Kako ne stane, sav je zgužvan. Pogledajte kako sam nacrtao ovo.
13:00
The old brain is still there. You still have that alligator brain.
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Stari je mozak još uvijek ondje. Još uvijek imate aligatorski mozak.
13:04
You do. It's your emotional brain.
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Da, imate. To je vaš emocionalan mozak.
13:06
It's all those things, and all those gut reactions you have.
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On je sve one stvari, sve one intuitivne reakcije koje imate.
13:09
And on top of it, we have this memory system called the neocortex.
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Povrh toga imamo memorijski sustav koji se zove neokorteks.
13:12
And the memory system is sitting over the sensory part of the brain.
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Memorijski se dio nalazi iznad osjetilnog dijela mozga.
13:16
And so as the sensory input comes in and feeds from the old brain,
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Osjetilni unos dolazi i dobiva informacije od starog mozga
13:19
it also goes up into the neocortex. And the neocortex is just memorizing.
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te odlazi u neokorteks. Neokorteks samo pamti.
13:23
It's sitting there saying, ah, I'm going to memorize all the things that are going on:
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Sjedi ondje i misli „zapamtit ću sve što se događa,
13:27
where I've been, people I've seen, things I've heard, and so on.
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gdje sam bio, ljude koje sam vidio, stvari koje sam čuo i tako dalje“.
13:29
And in the future, when it sees something similar to that again,
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I kada u budućnosti naiđe na nešto slično
13:33
so in a similar environment, or the exact same environment,
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u sličnom okruženju ili posve istom okruženju,
13:36
it'll play it back. It'll start playing it back.
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prisjetit će se starog doživljaja. Počet će ga ponovno doživljavati.
13:38
Oh, I've been here before. And when you've been here before,
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„Oh, već sam bio ovdje. I kada si prošli put bio ovdje
13:40
this happened next. It allows you to predict the future.
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sljedeće se dogodilo ovo“. Omogućuje vam predviđanje budućnosti.
13:43
It allows you to, literally it feeds back the signals into your brain;
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Doslovno vraća signale u mozak
13:47
they'll let you see what's going to happen next,
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i omogućuje da vidite ono što će se sljedeće dogoditi,
13:49
will let you hear the word "sentence" before I said it.
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omogućit će da čujete riječ „rečenica“ prije nego što vam je kažem.
13:52
And it's this feeding back into the old brain
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Upravo ovo vraćanje podataka u stari mozak
13:55
that'll allow you to make very more intelligent decisions.
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je ono što vam omogućuje da donosite vrlo inteligentne odluke.
13:58
This is the most important slide of my talk, so I'll dwell on it a little bit.
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Ovo je najvažniji dijapozitiv mog govora, pa ću se malo zadržati na njemu.
14:01
And so, all the time you say, oh, I can predict the things.
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Cijelo si vrijeme govorite „super, mogu predviđati stvari“.
14:05
And if you're a rat and you go through a maze, and then you learn the maze,
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Da ste štakor i da prolazite kroz labirint, a zatim zapamtite labirint,
14:08
the next time you're in a maze, you have the same behavior,
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sljedeći put kada ste u labirintu imate isti obrazac ponašanja,
14:10
but all of a sudden, you're smarter
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ali ste odjednom pametniji
14:12
because you say, oh, I recognize this maze, I know which way to go,
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jer mislite „pa ja prepoznajem ovaj labirint, znam kuda trebam ići.
14:15
I've been here before, I can envision the future. And that's what it's doing.
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Već sam bio ovdje, mogu predočiti budućnost“. To radi neokorteks.
14:18
In humans -- by the way, this is true for all mammals;
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Kod ljudi, usput, i kod svih sisavaca,
14:21
it's true for other mammals -- and in humans, it got a lot worse.
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postalo je malo gore.
14:23
In humans, we actually developed the front part of the neocortex
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Ljudi su razvili prednji dio neokorteksa
14:26
called the anterior part of the neocortex. And nature did a little trick.
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koji se zove anteriorni dio neokorteksa. Priroda se malo našalila.
14:30
It copied the posterior part, the back part, which is sensory,
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Kopirala je posteriorni dio, stražnji dio, koji je osjetilni,
14:32
and put it in the front part.
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i stavila ga naprijed.
14:34
And humans uniquely have the same mechanism on the front,
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Ljudi su jedinstveni jer imaju isti mehanizam sprijeda,
14:36
but we use it for motor control.
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ali ga koristimo za motoriku.
14:38
So we are now able to make very sophisticated motor planning, things like that.
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Zbog toga smo sposobni planirati sofisticirane motorne vještine i takve stvari.
14:41
I don't have time to get into all this, but if you want to understand how a brain works,
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Nemam se vremena baviti time, ali ako želite znati kako mozak funkcionira
14:44
you have to understand how the first part of the mammalian neocortex works,
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morate razumjeti kako funkcionira prednji dio neokorteksa kod sisavaca,
14:47
how it is we store patterns and make predictions.
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način na koji pohranjujemo obrasce i predviđamo događaje.
14:49
So let me give you a few examples of predictions.
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Evo nekoliko primjera predviđanja.
14:52
I already said the word "sentence." In music,
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Već sam objasnio onaj primjer s riječi „rečenica“. U glazbi
14:54
if you've heard a song before, if you heard Jill sing those songs before,
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ako ste pjesmu čuli prije, ako ste čuli nekoga da te pjesme već izvodi,
14:57
when she sings them, the next note pops into your head already --
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kada ih taj netko pjeva, sljedeća vam nota već padne na pamet --
15:00
you anticipate it as you're going. If it was an album of music,
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anticipirate ju kako slušate pjesmu. Ako se radi o glazbenom albumu,
15:02
the end of one album, the next song pops into your head.
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na kraju jednog albuma sljedeća će vam pjesma pasti na pamet.
15:05
And these things happen all the time. You're making these predictions.
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Takve se stvari neprestano događaju. Vi radite ova predviđanja.
15:07
I have this thing called the altered door thought experiment.
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Razvio sam pokus koji se zove misaoni eksperiment promijenjenih vrata.
15:10
And the altered door thought experiment says, you have a door at home,
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On glasi, imate vrata kod kuće,
15:13
and when you're here, I'm changing it, I've got a guy
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a kada ste ovdje ja ću ih promijeniti, imam svog čovjeka
15:16
back at your house right now, moving the door around,
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u vašoj kući koji miče vrata uokolo;
15:18
and they're going to take your doorknob and move it over two inches.
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uzet ću vašu kvaku i pomaknuti ju pet centimetara.
15:20
And when you go home tonight, you're going to put your hand out there,
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Kada se navečer vratite kući i ispružite ruku,
15:22
and you're going to reach for the doorknob and you're going to notice
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posegnut ćete za kvakom i primijetiti
15:24
it's in the wrong spot, and you'll go, whoa, something happened.
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da je na krivom mjestu i reći ćete „hej, nešto se dogodilo“.
15:27
It may take a second to figure out what it was, but something happened.
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Možda će vam trebati sekunda kako biste shvatili što, ali nešto se dogodilo.
15:29
Now I could change your doorknob in other ways.
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Mogao bih promijeniti vašu kvaku na druge načine.
15:31
I can make it larger or smaller, I can change its brass to silver,
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Mogao bih ju povećati ili smanjiti, promijeniti iz mjedene u srebrnu,
15:33
I could make it a lever. I can change your door, put colors on;
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mogao bih ju zamijeniti ručkom. Mogu promijeniti vaša vrata, obojati ih,
15:35
I can put windows in. I can change a thousand things about your door,
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staviti prozore na njih. Mogu promijeniti tisuću stvari na njima
15:38
and in the two seconds you take to open your door,
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i u dvije sekunde, koliko vam je potrebno za otvaranje vrata,
15:40
you're going to notice that something has changed.
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primijetit ćete da se nešto promijenilo.
15:43
Now, the engineering approach to this, the AI approach to this,
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Inženjerski pristup ovome, pristup umjetne inteligencije,
15:45
is to build a door database. It has all the door attributes.
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je da se napravi baza podataka s vratima, koja će imati sve atribute vrata.
15:48
And as you go up to the door, you know, let's check them off one at time.
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Kako se približavate vratima, atributi se eliminiraju jedan po jedan.
15:51
Door, door, door, you know, color, you know what I'm saying.
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Vrata, vrata, vrata, boja, znate o čemu pričam.
15:53
We don't do that. Your brain doesn't do that.
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Mi to ne radimo. Vaš mozak to ne radi.
15:55
What your brain is doing is making constant predictions all the time
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Ono što on radi je neprestano predviđa
15:57
about what is going to happen in your environment.
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što će se sljedeće dogoditi u vašem okruženju.
15:59
As I put my hand on this table, I expect to feel it stop.
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Kada stavim ruku na ovaj stol, očekujem da će ju stol zaustaviti.
16:02
When I walk, every step, if I missed it by an eighth of an inch,
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Kada hodam, svaki korak, ako ga promašim za samo centimetar,
16:05
I'll know something has changed.
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znat ću da se nešto promijenilo.
16:07
You're constantly making predictions about your environment.
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Neprestano radite predviđanja o svojem okruženju.
16:09
I'll talk about vision here briefly. This is a picture of a woman.
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Kratko ću govoriti o percepciji. Ovo je fotografija žene.
16:12
And when you look at people, your eyes are caught
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Kada promatrate ljude vaše oči
16:14
over at two to three times a second.
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prelaze preko njih dva do tri puta u sekundi.
16:15
You're not aware of this, but your eyes are always moving.
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Vi toga niste svjesni, ali oči vam se neprestano miču.
16:17
And so when you look at someone's face,
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Kada gledate nečije lice
16:19
you'd typically go from eye to eye to eye to nose to mouth.
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obično se krećete od oka do oka do oka do nosa do usta.
16:21
Now, when your eye moves from eye to eye,
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Kada se vaše oko kreće od oka do oka,
16:23
if there was something else there like, a nose,
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ako bi tamo bilo nešto drugo, poput nosa,
16:25
you'd see a nose where an eye is supposed to be,
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vidjeli biste nos na mjestu predviđenom za oko,
16:27
and you'd go, oh shit, you know --
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ostali biste iznenađeni --
16:30
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
16:31
There's something wrong about this person.
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Nešto nije u redu s ovom osobom.
16:33
And that's because you're making a prediction.
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To je zbog toga što predviđate.
16:35
It's not like you just look over there and say, what am I seeing now?
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Nije da samo pogledate prema tamo i kažete „što sada gledam“?
16:37
A nose, that's okay. No, you have an expectation of what you're going to see.
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Nos, to je u redu. Ne, imate očekivanje onoga što ćete vidjeti.
16:40
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
16:41
Every single moment. And finally, let's think about how we test intelligence.
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Svaki trenutak. I na kraju, razmislimo o tome kako mjerimo inteligenciju.
16:45
We test it by prediction. What is the next word in this, you know?
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Mjerimo ju putem predviđanja. Koja je sljedeća riječ?
16:48
This is to this as this is to this. What is the next number in this sentence?
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Ovo je prema ovome kao ovo prema ovome. Koji je sljedeći broj u ovoj rečenici?
16:51
Here's three visions of an object.
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Ovo su tri vida objekta.
16:53
What's the fourth one? That's how we test it. It's all about prediction.
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Što je ovaj četvrti? Tako testiramo inteligenciju. Sve je u predviđanju.
16:57
So what is the recipe for brain theory?
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Koji je recept za teoriju mozga?
17:00
First of all, we have to have the right framework.
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Prije svega, potreban nam je dobar okvir.
17:03
And the framework is a memory framework,
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To je memorijski okvir,
17:05
not a computation or behavior framework. It's a memory framework.
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ne računalni ili bihevioralni okvir. Memorijski okvir.
17:07
How do you store and recall these sequences or patterns? It's spatio-temporal patterns.
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Način na koji pohranjujete i na koji se prisjećate ovih scena i obrazaca? Radi se o prostorno-vremenskim obrascima.
17:11
Then, if in that framework, you take a bunch of theoreticians.
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Zatim, u tu teoriju okvira stavite hrpu teoretičara.
17:14
Now biologists generally are not good theoreticians.
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Biolozi uglavnom nisu dobri teoretičari.
17:16
It's not always true, but in general, there's not a good history of theory in biology.
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To nije uvijek istina, ali općenito govoreći, ne postoji dobra povijest teorije u biologiji.
17:20
So I found the best people to work with are physicists,
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Otkrio sam kako je najbolje raditi s fizičarima,
17:23
engineers and mathematicians, who tend to think algorithmically.
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inženjerima i matematičarima jer su skloni algoritmičnom razmišljanju.
17:26
Then they have to learn the anatomy, and they've got to learn the physiology.
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Zatim moraju naučiti anatomiju i fiziologiju.
17:29
You have to make these theories very realistic in anatomical terms.
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Ove teorije moraju biti iznimno realistične u anatomskom smislu.
17:33
Anyone who gets up and tells you their theory about how the brain works
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Svatko tko vam kaže svoju teoriju o tome kako mozak funkcionira,
17:37
and doesn't tell you exactly how it's working in the brain
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ali ne i kako sve točno radi u mozgu
17:39
and how the wiring works in the brain, it is not a theory.
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i kako veze funkcioniraju u mozgu, ta osoba zapravo ne priča o teoriji.
17:41
And that's what we're doing at the Redwood Neuroscience Institute.
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Ovime se bavimo u neuroznanstvenom inistitutu Redwood.
17:44
I would love to have more time to tell you we're making fantastic progress in this thing,
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Volio bih imati više vremena kako bih vam ispričao kakav smo izvanredni napredak postigli u ovom polju,
17:48
and I expect to be back up on this stage,
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očekujem da ću se vratiti na ovu pozornicu,
17:50
maybe this will be some other time in the not too distant future and tell you about it.
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možda neki drugi put u ne tako dalekoj budućnosti i tada ću vam ispričati o tome.
17:52
I'm really, really excited. This is not going to take 50 years at all.
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Vrlo sam uzbuđen. Ovo neće trajati niti 50 godina.
17:55
So what will brain theory look like?
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Kako će izgledati teorija o mozgu?
17:57
First of all, it's going to be a theory about memory.
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Prije svega, bit će to teorija o memoriji.
17:59
Not like computer memory. It's not at all like computer memory.
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Ne poput računalne memorije. Ništa nalik na računalnu memoriju,
18:02
It's very, very different. And it's a memory of these very
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već vrlo vrlo drugačije. Radi se o memoriji ovakvih
18:04
high-dimensional patterns, like the things that come from your eyes.
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visoko-dimenzijonalnih obrazaca, poput onoga što vidite očima.
18:07
It's also memory of sequences.
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Radi se o memoriji slijedova.
18:09
You cannot learn or recall anything outside of a sequence.
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Ne možete naučiti nešto niti se prisjetiti nečega izvan slijeda.
18:11
A song must be heard in sequence over time,
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Pjesma se mora čuti u slijedu tijekom vremena
18:14
and you must play it back in sequence over time.
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i morate ju ponovno pustiti u slijedu tijekom vremena.
18:17
And these sequences are auto-associatively recalled, so if I see something,
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Slijedova se auto-asocijativno prisjećamo; ako nešto vidimo,
18:20
I hear something, it reminds me of it, and then it plays back automatically.
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nešto čujemo ili nas podsjeti na nešto, ono se automatski povrati.
18:23
It's an automatic playback. And prediction of future inputs is the desired output.
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To je automatski „playback“. Predviđanje budućih unosa je željeni iznos.
18:27
And as I said, the theory must be biologically accurate,
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Kao što sam rekao, teorija mora biti biološki točna,
18:30
it must be testable, and you must be able to build it.
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mora se dati testirati i izgraditi.
18:32
If you don't build it, you don't understand it. So, one more slide here.
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Ako ju ne možemo izgraditi, ne možemo ju niti razumijeti. Još jedan dijapozitiv.
18:36
What is this going to result in? Are we going to really build intelligent machines?
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Što će biti rezultat toga? Hoćemo li stvarno stvarati inteligentne strojeve?
18:40
Absolutely. And it's going to be different than people think.
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Sasvim sigurno. Bit će drugačiji od onoga što ljudi zamišljaju.
18:44
No doubt that it's going to happen, in my mind.
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Bez sumnje će se to dogoditi.
18:47
First of all, it's going to be built up, we're going to build the stuff out of silicon.
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Bit će izgrađen od silikona.
18:51
The same techniques we use for building silicon computer memories,
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Istu tehniku koju koristimo za silikonske računalne memorije
18:54
we can use for here.
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možemo iskoristiti i ovdje.
18:55
But they're very different types of memories.
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No, to su sasvim drugačiji oblici memorije.
18:57
And we're going to attach these memories to sensors,
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Te ćemo memorije spojiti sa senzorima,
18:59
and the sensors will experience real-live, real-world data,
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a oni će doživljavati stvarne podatke,
19:02
and these things are going to learn about their environment.
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i tako će učiti o svom okruženju.
19:04
Now it's very unlikely the first things you're going to see are like robots.
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Malo je vjerojatno da će prvi takvi strojevi nalikovati robotima.
19:07
Not that robots aren't useful and people can build robots.
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Ne da roboti nisu korisni i ljudi mogu graditi robote.
19:10
But the robotics part is the hardest part. That's the old brain. That's really hard.
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Ali robotika je najteži dio. To je stari mozak. To je stvarno teško.
19:14
The new brain is actually kind of easier than the old brain.
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Zapravo, novi je mozak na neki način jednostavniji od starog mozga.
19:16
So the first thing we're going to do are the things that don't require a lot of robotics.
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Prvo ćemo napraviti stvari za koje nije potrebno puno robotike.
19:19
So you're not going to see C-3PO.
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Nećete vidjeti C-3PO-a.
19:21
You're going to more see things like, you know, intelligent cars
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Prije ćete vidjeti nešto poput inteligentnih automobila
19:23
that really understand what traffic is and what driving is
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koji stvarno razumiju što je promet i što je vožnja
19:26
and have learned that certain types of cars with the blinkers on for half a minute
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i koji će znati da određeni automobili, koji imaju pola minute uključen pokazivač smjera,
19:29
probably aren't going to turn, things like that.
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vrlo vjerojatno neće skrenuti, takve stvari.
19:31
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
19:32
We can also do intelligent security systems.
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Možemo napraviti inteligentne sustave sigurnosti.
19:34
Anywhere where we're basically using our brain, but not doing a lot of mechanics.
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Bavit ćemo se gotovo bilo kojim područjem u kojem koristimo mozak, ali ne i puno mehanike.
19:38
Those are the things that are going to happen first.
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Takve će se stvari prve dogoditi.
19:40
But ultimately, the world's the limit here.
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Ali, na kraju krajeva, svijet je granica.
19:42
I don't know how this is going to turn out.
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Ne znam kako će to završiti.
19:44
I know a lot of people who invented the microprocessor
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Znam mnogo ljudi koji su izumili mikroprocesor
19:46
and if you talk to them, they knew what they were doing was really significant,
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i kada razgovarate s njima znali su da rade nešto vrlo značajno,
19:51
but they didn't really know what was going to happen.
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ali zapravo nisu znali što će se dogoditi.
19:54
They couldn't anticipate cell phones and the Internet and all this kind of stuff.
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Nisu mogli anticipirati mobitele, Internet i sve te stvari.
19:59
They just knew like, hey, they were going to build calculators
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Znali su da će napraviti kalkulatore
20:01
and traffic light controllers. But it's going to be big.
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i kontrole semafora. Bit će to velika stvar.
20:03
In the same way, this is like brain science and these memories
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Ovo je nalik na znanost o mozgu i ove će memorije
20:06
are going to be a very fundamental technology, and it's going to lead
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biti vrlo temeljna tehnologija koja će dovesti
20:09
to very unbelievable changes in the next 100 years.
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do nevjerojatnih promjena u sljedećih 100 godina.
20:12
And I'm most excited about how we're going to use them in science.
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Vrlo sam uzbuđen zbog načina na koji će se korisiti u znanosti.
20:16
So I think that's all my time, I'm over it, and I'm going to end my talk
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Mislim da je ovo kraj moga vremena, premašio sam ga, ovdje ću završiti
20:19
right there.
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sa svojim govorom.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jeff Hawkins - Computer designer, brain researcherJeff Hawkins pioneered the development of PDAs such as the Palm and Treo. Now he's trying to understand how the human brain really works, and adapt its method -- which he describes as a deep system for storing memory -- to create new kinds of computers and tools.
Why you should listen
Jeff Hawkins' Palm PDA became such a widely used productivity tool during the 1990s that some fanatical users claimed it replaced their brains. But Hawkins' deepest interest was in the brain itself. So after the success of the Palm and Treo, which he brought to market at Handspring, Hawkins delved into brain research at the Redwood Center for Theoretical Neuroscience in Berkeley, Calif., and a new company called Numenta.
Hawkins' dual goal is to achieve an understanding of how the human brain actually works -- and then develop software to mimic its functionality, delivering true artificial intelligence. In his book On Intelligence (2004) he lays out his compelling, controversial theory: Contrary to popular AI wisdom, the human neocortex doesn't work like a processor; rather, it relies on a memory system that stores and plays back experiences to help us predict, intelligently, what will happen next. He thinks that "hierarchical temporal memory" computer platforms, which mimic this functionality (and which Numenta might pioneer), could enable groundbreaking new applications that could powerfully extend human intelligence.
Jeff Hawkins | Speaker | TED.com