ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rob Hopkins - Resilience leader
Rob Hopkins is the founder of the Transition movement, a radically hopeful and community-driven approach to creating societies independent of fossil fuel.

Why you should listen

Rob Hopkins leads a vibrant new movement of towns and cities that utilize local cooperation and interdependence to shrink their ecological footprints. In the face of climate change he developed the concept of Transition Initiatives -- communities that produce their own goods and services, curb the need for transportation and take other measures to prepare for a post-oil future. While Transition shares certain principles with greenness and sustainability, it is a deeper vision concerned with re-imagining our future in a self-sufficient way and building resiliency.

Transforming theory to action, Hopkins is also the co-founder and a resident of the first Transition Initiative in the UK, in Totnes, Devon. As he refuses to fly, it is from his home in Totnes that he offers help to hundreds of similar communities that have sprung up around the world, in part through his blog, transitionculture.org.

Hopkins, who's trained in ecological design, wrote the principal work on the subject, Transition Handbook: From Oil Dependency to Local Resilience, a 12-step manual for a postcarbon future. Find notes and slides from his TEDTalk here >>

More profile about the speaker
Rob Hopkins | Speaker | TED.com
TEDGlobal 2009

Rob Hopkins: Transition to a world without oil

罗布•霍普金斯Rob Hopkins:不用石油的转变世界

Filmed:
935,736 views

罗布•霍普金斯Rob Hopkins提醒我们:世界赖以生存的石油即将耗尽。为转变到没有石油的世界,他给出了自己的解答-转变响应。过没有石油的生活,牺牲我们的舒适生活,建立一个完全不依靠石油化石燃料的系统和社区。
- Resilience leader
Rob Hopkins is the founder of the Transition movement, a radically hopeful and community-driven approach to creating societies independent of fossil fuel. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:18
As a culture文化, we tell ourselves我们自己 lots of stories故事
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在人类文明中,有很多关于未来的
00:21
about the future未来,
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故事,
00:23
and where we might威力 move移动 forward前锋 from this point.
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也许正是这些故事激励我们前行。
00:25
Some of those stories故事 are that
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在一些故事中
00:27
somebody is just going to sort分类 everything out for us.
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有些人努力去收集和利用所有事物。
00:30
Other stories故事 are that everything is on the verge边缘 of unraveling解开.
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在另一些故事中,所有事物都濒临灭亡。
00:34
But I want to tell you a different不同 story故事 here today今天.
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但是我今天将带给你们一个不同的故事。
00:36
Like all stories故事, it has a beginning开始.
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与所有故事一样,它也有一个开头。
00:39
My work, for a long time, has been involved参与 in education教育,
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在很长一段时间,我一直潜心于教育事业,
00:42
in teaching教学 people practical实际的 skills技能
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教大家
00:44
for sustainability可持续性,
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可持续性实用技能,
00:46
teaching教学 people how to take responsibility责任
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比如
00:48
for growing生长 some of their own拥有 food餐饮,
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在自家种菜,
00:50
how to build建立 buildings房屋 using运用 local本地 materials物料,
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利用本地的材料建造房子,
00:52
how to generate生成 their own拥有 energy能源, and so on.
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挖掘本地的能量源等等,这些都是为了帮助人们更好的承担责任。
00:55
I lived生活 in Ireland爱尔兰, built内置 the first straw-bale秸秆打捆 houses房屋 in Ireland爱尔兰,
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我生活在爱尔兰,在那儿我建造了第一个稻草屋,
00:59
and some cobCOB buildings房屋 and all this kind of thing.
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和一些圆形建筑以及类似的。
01:02
But all my work for many许多 years年份 was focused重点
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很多年来我的工作都集中在
01:05
around the idea理念 that sustainability可持续性
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一个想法--可持续性,
01:07
means手段 basically基本上 looking at
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它意味着:着眼于
01:09
the globalized全球化 economic经济 growth发展 model模型,
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全球经济增长模型,
01:12
and moderating缓和 what comes in at one end结束,
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既监控着自身就有的东西,
01:14
and moderating缓和 the outputs输出 at the other end结束.
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也监控着所产出排出的东西,
01:17
And then I came来了 into contact联系 with a way of looking at things
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然后我就开始接触并以长远的目光观察
01:20
which哪一个 actually其实 changed that profoundly深深.
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在实际中变化巨大的这一切。
01:22
And in order订购 to introduce介绍 you to that,
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为了介绍清楚,
01:24
I've got something here that I'm going to unveil揭开,
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在这里我打算揭开
01:26
which哪一个 is one of the great marvels奇迹 of the modern现代 age年龄.
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一个当代伟大奇迹的发现。
01:29
And it's something so astounding惊人 and so astonishing惊人
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它是如此惊天动地,
01:31
that I think maybe as I remove去掉 this cloth
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我想我还是先揭开它的面纱,
01:34
a suitable适当 gasp喘气 of amazement惊愕 might威力 be appropriate适当.
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并好好喘口气,然后再告诉大家比较合适。
01:37
If you could help me with that it would be fantastic奇妙.
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如果你们能帮我一把,那就完美了。
01:44
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
01:45
This is a liter of oil.
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这儿有一升石油。
01:48
This bottle瓶子 of oil,
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这瓶油
01:51
distilled蒸馏 over a hundred million百万 years年份 of geological地质 time,
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提炼取自上亿年前的地质,
01:54
ancient sunlight阳光,
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经过远古的阳光照射,
01:56
contains包含 the energy能源 equivalent当量 of about five weeks
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它饱含的能量相当于5周的
01:58
hard human人的 manual手册 labor劳动 --
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艰苦的体力劳动,
02:01
equivalent当量 to about 35 strong强大 people
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也相当于35个壮劳力
02:05
coming未来 round回合 and working加工 for you.
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为你服务。
02:08
We can turn it into a dazzling令人眼花缭乱 array排列 of materials物料,
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我们可以用石油再加工成琳琅满目的新材料:
02:12
medicine医学, modern现代 clothing服装,
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药物,现代纺织料,
02:14
laptops笔记本电脑, a whole整个 range范围 of different不同 things.
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笔记本电脑,还有其他不同的材料。
02:18
It gives us an energy能源 return返回 that's unimaginable不可思议, historically历史.
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石油给予我们的历史发展中所需的无法想象的能量循环。
02:23
We've我们已经 based基于 the design设计 of our settlements定居点,
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我们赖以生存的社区设计,
02:25
our business商业 models楷模, our transport运输 plans计划,
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经济学模型,旅游计划,
02:27
even the idea理念 of economic经济 growth发展, some would argue争论,
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甚至经济增长的观点,可能有些人会怀疑,
02:30
on the assumption假设 that we will have this in perpetuity如履薄冰.
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假设我们将会永久持续使用石油。
02:34
Yet然而, when we take a step back,
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如果我们退一步看,
02:37
and look over the span跨度 of history历史,
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整个人类历史,
02:39
at what we might威力 call the petroleum石油 interval间隔,
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我们所谓的石油时代,
02:42
it's a short period in history历史
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仅仅是历史的一小段,
02:44
where we've我们已经 discovered发现 this extraordinary非凡 material材料,
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从我们发现这个特别的材料,
02:47
and then based基于 a whole整个 way of life around it.
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到完全依赖石油。
02:50
But as we straddle the top最佳 of this energy能源 mountain, at this stage阶段,
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但现在当我们处在能源的顶峰,
02:54
we move移动 from a time where our economic经济 success成功,
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过去,我们的经济成功,
02:57
our sense of individual个人 prowess实力 and well-being福利
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个人能力和福利
03:00
is directly linked关联 to how much of this we consume消耗,
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直接取决于我们消耗的石油的多少。
03:04
to a time when actually其实 our degree of oil dependency依赖
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到现在我们对石油的依赖
03:07
is our degree of vulnerability漏洞.
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正是我们的弱点。
03:09
And it's increasingly日益 clear明确 that we
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越来越清晰的表明:我们
03:11
aren't going to be able能够 to rely依靠 on the fact事实 that
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永远基于石油的事实
03:13
we're going to have this at our disposal处置 forever永远.
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是站不住脚的。
03:16
For every一切 four barrels of oil that we consume消耗,
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我们每消耗4桶石油,
03:18
we only discover发现 one.
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却只能发现1桶。
03:20
And that gap间隙 continues继续 to widen扩大.
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这个差距越来越大。
03:22
There is also the fact事实 that the amount of energy能源
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事实是我们从石油中得到的能源
03:24
that we get back from the oil that we discover发现 is falling落下.
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正在减少。
03:27
In the 1930s we got 100 units单位 of energy能源 back
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在1930年代,我们每个人可以从提炼石油中
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for every一切 one that we put in to extract提取 it.
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得到100单位的能源。
03:33
Completely全然 unprecedented史无前例, historically历史.
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这是空前的,历史上最多的,
03:35
Already已经 that's fallen堕落 to about 11.
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现在,能源利用值降低为11。
03:37
And that's why, now,
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就是为什么现在,
03:39
the new breakthroughs突破, the new frontiers前沿
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石油萃取的新突破技术,新边疆的
03:41
in terms条款 of oil extraction萃取 are scrambling扰码 about in Alberta阿尔伯塔,
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争夺如此激烈,不管是在Alberta地区,
03:44
or at the bottom底部 of the oceans海洋.
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还是在海底。
03:46
There are 98 oil-producing石油生产 nations国家 in the world世界.
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世界上有98个石油生产国,
03:49
But of those, 65 have already已经 passed通过 their peak.
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但,其中65个已经超过了开采的峰值。
03:52
The moment时刻 when the world世界 on average平均 passes通行证 this peak,
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世界平均开采早晚都会超过这个峰值,
03:55
people wonder奇迹 when that's going to happen发生.
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人们只是想知道什么时候发生。
03:57
And there is an emerging新兴 case案件
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一个紧急例子是
03:58
that maybe that was what happened发生 last July七月
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去年7月份发生的
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when the oil prices价格 were so high.
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油价高峰。
04:02
But are we to assume承担 that the same相同 brilliance
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但人类的智慧,
04:04
and creativity创造力 and adaptability适应性
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创造力、适应力
04:06
that got us up to the top最佳 of that energy能源 mountain in the first place地点
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使我们第一次到达了能源的顶峰,
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is somehow不知何故 mysteriously神秘 going to evaporate蒸发
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当我们不得不在能源低谷探索时,
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when we have to design设计 a creative创作的 way back down the other side?
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这种智慧、创造力和适应力却莫名其妙地突然神秘蒸发了?
04:16
No. But the thinking思维 that we have to come up with
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不是的。而是伴随这个想法的
04:19
has to be based基于 on a realistic实际 assessment评定
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基础是基于一个现实的假设,
04:22
of where we are.
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我们已经达到了开采巅峰。
04:24
There is also the issue问题 of climate气候 change更改,
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面对气候变化时,
04:26
is the other thing that underpins巩固 this transition过渡 approach途径.
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也同样支持了这种转变方法。
04:28
But the thing that I notice注意, as I talk to climate气候 scientists科学家们,
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当我和气候学家讨论时,我注意到
04:31
is the increasingly日益 terrified look they have in their eyes眼睛,
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他们眼里与日俱增的恐惧,
04:34
as the data数据 that's coming未来 in,
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伴随着最近的更新数据,
04:36
which哪一个 is far ahead of what the IPCCIPCC are talking about.
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要比IPCC(联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会)讨论中的数据更有说服力,
04:40
So the IPCCIPCC said
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IPCC的结论是:
04:42
that we might威力 see significant重大 breakup分手
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我们可以预见2100年
04:44
of the arctic北极 ice in 2100, in their worst最差 case案件 scenario脚本.
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在最坏的情况下,北极冰川严重断裂。
04:47
Actually其实, if current当前 trends趋势 continue继续,
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事实上,如果目前的趋势继续恶化,
04:50
it could all be gone走了 in five or 10 years'年份' time.
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它将在5年或者10年内发生。
04:52
If just three percent百分 of the carbon locked锁定 up in the arctic北极 permafrost永久冻土
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如果北极永冻土中包含二氧化碳的3%,
04:56
is released发布 as the world世界 warms变暖,
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在全球变暖中释放,
04:58
it would offset抵消 all the savings that we need to make,
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它将抵消我们所有为减少二氧化碳所做的努力,
05:00
in carbon, over the next下一个 40 years年份 to avoid避免 runaway逃跑 climate气候 change更改.
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在未来的40年间防范难以捉摸的气候变化。
05:03
We have no choice选择 other than deep and urgent紧急 decarbonization脱碳.
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除了我们深入实施紧急的二氧化碳减排,我们没有其他选择。
05:08
But I'm always very interested有兴趣 to think about
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但我一直很感兴趣地思考
05:10
what might威力 the stories故事 be
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故事可能是这样的:
05:12
that the generations further进一步 down the slope from us
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我们以后的几代人
05:15
are going to tell about us.
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将会告诉我们。
05:17
"The generation that lived生活 at the top最佳 of the mountain,
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“后代们生活在山顶,
05:20
that partied了宴会 so hard, and so abused滥用 its inheritance遗产."
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忍受艰难,他们的遗产也很可怜。”
05:25
And one of the ways方法 I like to do that
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我喜欢的方法之一是
05:27
is to look back at the stories故事 people used to tell
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回首往事时人们通常这么说:
05:29
before we had cheap低廉 oil, before we had fossil化石 fuels燃料,
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在拥有便宜的汽油和化石燃料之前,
05:32
and people relied on their own拥有 muscle肌肉, animal动物 muscle肌肉 energy能源,
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人们依赖于他们的肌肉,动物肌肉中的能量,
05:35
or a little bit of wind, little bit of water energy能源.
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或者一些风能,一些水能。
05:38
We had stories故事 like "The Seven-League七联赛 Boots靴子":
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我们有“七联赛靴”的故事:
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the giant巨人 who had these boots靴子, where, once一旦 you put them on,
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一旦巨人穿上这样的靴子,
05:43
with every一切 stride you could cover seven leagues联赛, or 21 miles英里,
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每迈出一步就可以完成7联赛,或者21英里,
05:47
a kind of travel旅行 completely全然 unimaginable不可思议
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对于没有这种功能靴子的人们来说,
05:49
to people without that kind of energy能源 at their disposal处置.
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这是一种完全无法想象的旅程。
05:52
Stories故事 like The Magic魔法 Porridge稀饭 Pot,
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还有神奇魔术锅的故事,
05:55
where you had a pot where if you knew知道 the magic魔法 words,
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如果你知道魔语,你可以让一个魔术锅
05:57
this pot would just make as much food餐饮 as you liked喜欢,
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不断地做出你想要的食物,
06:00
without you having to do any work,
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当然你也不用动手。
06:02
provided提供 you could remember记得 the other magic魔法 word to stop it making制造 porridge稀饭.
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假如你记得其他咒语,就可以停止做燕麦粥。
06:05
Otherwise除此以外 you'd flood洪水 your entire整个 town with warm porridge稀饭.
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否则,整个城市将被温燕麦粥淹没。
06:09
There is the story故事 of "The Elves精灵 and the Shoemaker鞋匠."
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还有一个"鞋匠和小矮人"的故事。
06:12
The people who make shoes go to sleep睡觉, wake唤醒 up in the morning早上,
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鞋匠晚上没做完鞋就睡着了,当他早上睡醒的时候,
06:14
and all the shoes are magically神奇 made制作 for them.
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却发现所有的鞋子都神奇地做好了。
06:16
It's something that was unimaginable不可思议 to people then.
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对人类来说,这真是不可思议。
06:19
Now we have the seven-league七联赛 boots靴子
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现在,有Ryanair和Easyjet飞机形式的
06:22
in the form形成 of Ryanair瑞安航空 and Easyjet易捷航空公司.
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七联赛靴。
06:25
We have the magic魔法 porridge稀饭 pot
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也有类似神奇魔术锅(格林童话神奇锅)
06:27
in the form形成 of Walmart沃尔玛(Walmart) and Tesco特易购.
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的Walmart和Tesco大型超市。
06:29
And we have the elves精灵 in the form形成 of China中国.
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还有就好比小矮人一样的中国。
06:32
But we don't appreciate欣赏 what an astonishing惊人
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但是我们不欢迎这些令人吃惊的
06:36
thing that has been.
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正发生的事情。
06:38
And what are the stories故事 that we tell ourselves我们自己 now,
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现在我们要讲的
06:40
as we look forward前锋 about where we're going to go.
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正是我们期盼的关于前途的问题。
06:43
And I would argue争论 that there are four. There is the idea理念 of business商业 as usual通常,
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我认为,有4个方向。通常的商业想法是
06:46
that the future未来 will be like the present当下, just more of it.
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未来仅仅是现在的延续,甚至是更好。
06:49
But as we've我们已经 seen看到 over the last year, I think that's an idea理念
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但回顾去年,我认为那个想法
06:51
that is increasingly日益 coming未来 into question.
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正在成为一个问题。
06:53
And in terms条款 of climate气候 change更改,
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从气候变化来看,
06:55
is something that is not actually其实 feasible可行.
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事实上这有点行不通。
06:59
There is the idea理念 of hitting the wall,
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还有一个碰壁的想法,
07:01
that actually其实 somehow不知何故 everything is so fragile脆弱
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所有东西都变得很脆弱,
07:04
that it might威力 just all unravel and collapse坍方.
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即将瓦解,全部崩溃。
07:06
This is a popular流行 story故事 in some places地方.
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在一些地方,这种观点比较普遍。
07:09
The third第三 story故事 is the idea理念 that technology技术 can solve解决 everything,
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第三种想法是:科技可以解决所有问题。
07:12
that technology技术 can somehow不知何故 get us through通过 this completely全然.
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科技可以带领我们完全客服困难。
07:16
And it's an idea理念 that I think is very prevalent流行 at these TEDTED Talks会谈,
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我认为,这种观点在TED讨论者中比较普遍,
07:20
the idea理念 that we can invent发明 our way out of a profound深刻
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我们发明一种方法走出严峻的
07:23
economic经济 and energy能源 crisis危机,
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经济和能源危机,
07:25
that a move移动 to a knowledge知识 economy经济
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一种知识经济运动可以
07:27
can somehow不知何故 neatly整洁 sidestep回避 those energy能源 constraints限制,
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远离能源束缚。
07:30
the idea理念 that we'll discover发现 some fabulous极好 new source资源 of energy能源
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有观点是我们发现一些极好的新能源,
07:33
that will mean we can sweep all concerns关注
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使得我们可以对
07:35
about energy能源 security安全 to one side,
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能源安全问题搁置一边,
07:38
the idea理念 that we can step off neatly整洁
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我们可以轻松地迈入到
07:40
onto a completely全然 renewable可再生 world世界.
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一个全新的可再生能源的世界。
07:42
But the world世界 isn't Second第二 Life.
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但世界并非第二人生(Second Life虚拟世界网络)。
07:44
We can't create创建 new land土地 and new energy能源 systems系统 at the click点击 of a mouse老鼠.
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我们不能凭简单地点击鼠标,然后创造出了新大陆和新能源体系。
07:48
And as we sit, exchanging交换 free自由 ideas思路 with each other,
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当我们坐在这里,彼此自由交流思想的时候,
07:51
there are still people mining矿业 coal煤炭
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仍然有人在挖煤,
07:53
in order订购 to power功率 the servers服务器, extracting提取 the minerals矿物质
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目的是提取矿物质,为一些服务提供能量,
07:55
to make all of those things.
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使它们运转。
07:57
The breakfast早餐 that we eat as we sit down
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当我们早上坐下来,
07:59
to check our email电子邮件 in the morning早上
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查收我们邮件的时候,
08:01
is still transported at great distances距离,
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早餐正从很远地方运来,
08:03
usually平时 at the expense费用 of the local本地, more resilient弹性
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这通常影响了当地的,自给自足,更具恢复性的
08:05
food餐饮 systems系统 that would have supplied供应 that in the past过去,
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餐饮系统,这种餐饮系统长久以来就有,
08:08
which哪一个 we've我们已经 so effectively有效 devalued贬值 and dismantled拆除.
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而我们却有效低估,甚至让这种餐饮系统消失。
08:12
We can be astonishingly令人惊讶 inventive发明的 and creative创作的.
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我们可以惊人地去创造,
08:15
But we also live生活 in a world世界 with very real真实 constraints限制 and demands需要.
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但我们生存在受现实约束的世界中。
08:19
Energy能源 and technology技术 are not the same相同 thing.
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能源和科技不是同一个事物。
08:22
What I'm involved参与 with is the transition过渡 response响应.
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我潜心于转变响应的积极措施。
08:24
And this is really about looking the challenges挑战
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这是当前关于
08:27
of peak oil and climate气候 change更改 square广场 in the face面对,
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石油开采峰值和气候变化的巨大挑战,
08:29
and responding响应 with a creativity创造力 and an adaptability适应性
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以及创造性和适应性和
08:32
and an imagination想像力 that we really need.
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我们迫切所需的想象力的响应。
08:35
It's something which哪一个 has spread传播 incredibly令人难以置信 fast快速.
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转变响应以惊人的速度传播。
08:38
And it is something which哪一个 has several一些 characteristics特点.
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它具有多种特征,
08:40
It's viral病毒. It seems似乎 to spread传播 under the radar雷达 very, very quickly很快.
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像病毒一样,好似在雷达下的快速传播。
08:45
It's open打开 source资源. It's something which哪一个 everybody每个人 who's谁是 involved参与 with it
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它是开源的。每个潜心于转变发展的人,
08:49
develops发展 and passes通行证 on as they work with it.
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在工作中传递。
08:53
It's self-organizing自组织. There is no great central中央 organization组织
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自我组织,没有庞大的中央组织
08:56
that pushes this; people just pick up an idea理念
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去推动;人们仅仅有了一个想法
08:58
and they run with it, and they implement实行 it where they are.
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并且运行,贯彻执行。
09:01
It's solutions-focused解决方案为重点. It's very much looking at what people can do
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集中解决问题。关注人们能够做什么,
09:04
where they are, to respond响应 to this.
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设身处地的进行转变响应。
09:07
It's sensitive敏感 to place地点 and to scale规模.
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就不同地方和规模都会有出入。
09:09
Transitional过渡 is completely全然 different不同.
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转变也就完全不同。
09:11
Transition过渡 groups in Chile智利, transition过渡 groups in the U.S., transition过渡 groups here,
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智利的转变小组,美国的转变小组,这里的转变小组,
09:15
what they're doing looks容貌 very different不同 in every一切 place地点 that you go to.
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你去的每个地方,大家的看法都不一样。
09:18
It learns获悉 very much from its mistakes错误.
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从错误中可以学习到很多。
09:20
And it feels感觉 historic历史性. It tries尝试 to create创建 a sense
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这转变很有历史影响。它创造一种
09:23
that this is a historic历史性 opportunity机会
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历史性的机会
09:25
to do something really extraordinary非凡.
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让人们去做不同寻常的事情。
09:27
And it's a process处理 which哪一个 is really joyful快乐.
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在此过程中的确充满乐趣。
09:29
People have a huge巨大 amount of fun开玩笑 doing this,
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身体力行的人们感到无限乐趣,
09:31
reconnecting重新连接 with other people as they do it.
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人们也乐于联系在一起做这些转变。
09:34
One of the things that underpins巩固 it is this idea理念 of resilience弹性.
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支撑上述观点的是可恢复性理论。
09:37
And I think, in many许多 ways方法, the idea理念 of resilience弹性
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我认为,在多方面,这种可恢复性理论
09:40
is a more useful有用 concept概念 than the idea理念 of sustainability可持续性.
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比可持续理论更有用。
09:44
The idea理念 of resilience弹性 comes from the study研究 of ecology生态.
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可恢复性理论源于生态学,
09:46
And it's really about how systems系统,
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是关于系统,
09:49
settlements定居点, withstand经受 shock休克 from the outside.
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安居置业,如何抵挡外部冲击。
09:52
When they encounter遭遇 shock休克 from the outside
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当他们遇到外部冲击时,
09:54
that they don't just unravel and fall秋季 to pieces.
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他们不只是分解,或者崩溃。
09:56
And I think it's a more useful有用 concept概念 than sustainability可持续性, as I said.
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我认为可恢复性理论比可持续理论更有用,正如我所说。
10:00
When our supermarkets超级市场 have only two or three days'天' worth价值 of food餐饮 in them
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在任何时候,当超市只有2,3天的食物储备时,
10:04
at any one time, often经常 sustainability可持续性 tends趋向 to focus焦点 on
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通常可持续理论关注于
10:07
the energy能源 efficiency效率 of the freezers冰柜
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冰箱的能效,
10:09
and on the packaging打包 that the lettuces生菜 are wrapped包裹 up in.
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和包裹生菜的包装。
10:12
Looking through通过 the lens镜片 of resilience弹性,
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从可恢复性理论角度看,
10:14
we really question how we've我们已经 let ourselves我们自己 get into a situation情况
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我们从根本上质疑我们竟依赖于这种
10:18
that's so vulnerable弱势.
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如此脆弱的超市消费模式。
10:20
Resilience弹性 runs运行 much deeper更深:
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可恢复性理论可以更广泛地运作:
10:22
it's about building建造 modularity模块化 into what we do,
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它是基于我们所要转变的模块化建设,
10:24
building建造 surge浪涌 breakers断路器 into how we organize组织 the basic基本 things that support支持 us.
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和我们怎样组织生产自给自足必需品的转变社区建立。
10:29
This is a photograph照片 of the Bristol布里斯托尔 and District
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这是布里斯托尔市Bristol和湖区District的照片,
10:31
Market市场 Gardeners园丁 Association协会, in 1897.
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1897年,农业菜园市场协会Market Gardeners Association成立。
10:35
This is at a time when the city of Bristol布里斯托尔,
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当时,布里斯托尔市Bristol
10:37
which哪一个 is quite相当 close to here,
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就在这个附近,
10:39
was surrounded包围 by commercial广告 market市场 gardens花园,
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周围是商业市场菜园,
10:41
which哪一个 provided提供 a significant重大 amount of the food餐饮
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提供给城市所需的大量食物,
10:44
that was consumed消费 in the town, and created创建 a lot of employment雇用 for people, as well.
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也创造很多就业机会,等等。
10:48
There was a degree of resilience弹性, if you like, at that time,
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这就是可恢复性的一个例子,希望你们喜欢,
10:51
which哪一个 we can now only look back on with envy羡慕.
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我们现在只能带着羡慕的眼光回首那时。
10:55
So how does this transition过渡 idea理念 work?
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因此,这个转变的想法如何运作?
10:57
So basically基本上, you have a group of people who are excited兴奋 by the idea理念.
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大体上有很多人为这个想法而兴奋不已。
11:00
They pick up some of the tools工具 that we've我们已经 developed发达.
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他们使用我们开发的一些工具,
11:03
They start开始 to run an awareness-raising提高认识 program程序
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他们开始一个“awareness-raising提高认识”的计划,
11:05
looking at how this might威力 actually其实 work in the town.
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在城镇中测试实际转变运作情况。
11:08
They show显示 films影片, they give talks会谈, and so on.
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他们观看电影,开展讨论等等。
11:10
It's a process处理 which哪一个 is playful调皮 and creative创作的
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这个转变过程有趣而富有创造力,
11:13
and informative信息.
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并增长见识。
11:15
Then they start开始 to form形成 working加工 groups, looking at different不同 aspects方面 of this,
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然后他们开始组建工作组,分别负责不同的方面,
11:18
and then from that, there emerge出现 a whole整个 lot of projects项目
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因此基于此,形成了很多转变项目,
11:21
which哪一个 then the transition过渡 project项目 itself本身
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然后转变项目本身
11:23
starts启动 to support支持 and enable启用.
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开始运行和完善。
11:28
So it started开始 out with some work I was involved参与 in in Ireland爱尔兰,
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在爱尔兰我开始了相关的工作,
11:30
where I was teaching教学, and has since以来 spread传播.
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爱尔兰是我教学的地方,也是工作开展的地方。
11:32
There are now over 200 formal正式 transition过渡 projects项目.
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目前已经有超过200个正式的转变项目。
11:35
And there are thousands数千 of others其他 who are at what we call the mulling酝酿 stage阶段.
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在我们所谓的酝酿阶段,有过千的工作人员。
11:39
They are mulling酝酿 whether是否 they're going to take it further进一步.
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他们正在酝酿方案将来的可行性。
11:41
And actually其实 a lot of them are doing huge巨大 amounts of stuff东东.
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实际上大部分人做了大量的的工作。
11:44
But what do they actually其实 do? You know, it's a kind of nice不错 idea理念,
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但他们实际上做什么呢?大家知道,这是一个新颖的想法,
11:46
but what do they actually其实 do on the ground地面?
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但他们付诸的实际情况如何?
11:48
Well, I think it's really important重要 to make the point that actually其实
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因此,我认为重申这一点非常重要,
11:52
you know, this isn't something which哪一个 is going to do everything on its own拥有.
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实际上大家知道,转变不是一个自身就能完成所有工作。
11:55
We need international国际 legislation立法 from Copenhagen哥本哈根 and so on.
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我们需要哥本哈根大会的国际立法等等。
11:59
We need national国民 responses回复. We need local本地 government政府 responses回复.
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我们需要得到国内的响应,本地政府的响应。
12:02
But all of those things are going to be much easier更轻松
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但所有事情都会变得非常简单,
12:05
if we have communities社区 that are vibrant充满活力 and coming未来 up with ideas思路
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如果我们有活跃的社区以及最新的想法交流,
12:08
and leading领导 from the front面前, making制造 unelectable候选资格 policies政策 electable总统当选,
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然后领导转变响应,使得相关政策通过候选立法,
12:11
over the next下一个 5 to 10 years年份.
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在接下来的5到10年。
12:13
Some of the things that emerge出现 from it are local本地 food餐饮 projects项目,
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自然而然的就有一些当地的食物项目,
12:16
like community-supported社区支持 agriculture农业 schemes方案,
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例如社区团体支持的农业计划,
12:18
urban城市的 food餐饮 production生产, creating创建 local本地 food餐饮 directories目录, and so on.
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城乡食物计划,当地食物目录等等。
12:22
A lot of places地方 now are starting开始 to set up their own拥有 energy能源 companies公司,
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目前很多地方都开始建立自己的能源工厂,
12:25
community-owned社区所有 energy能源 companies公司,
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社区自建能源工厂,
12:27
where the community社区 can invest投资 money into itself本身,
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由社区独立投资,
12:29
to start开始 putting in place地点
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开始建立
12:31
the kind of renewable可再生 energy能源 infrastructure基础设施 that we need.
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可再生能源基础设施,这正是我们需要的。
12:33
A lot of places地方 are working加工 with their local本地 schools学校.
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在许多地方,学校也参与进来。
12:36
Newent纽恩特 in the Forest森林 of Dean院长: big polytunnelpolytunnel they built内置 for the school学校;
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位于迪恩森林国家公园附近的Newent市:人们在学校建起大型保温棚,
12:38
the kids孩子 are learning学习 how to grow增长 food餐饮.
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孩子们学习如何种植食物。
12:40
Promoting推进 recycling回收, things like garden-share园林股,
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提倡再循环利用,例如菜园共享,
12:43
that matches火柴 up people who don't have a garden花园
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使得没有菜园的人们
12:45
who would like to grow增长 food餐饮, with people who have gardens花园 they aren't using运用 anymore.
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可以在被人闲置的菜园地方,种植食物。
12:48
Planting种植 productive生产的 trees树木 throughout始终 urban城市的 spaces空间.
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在广阔的城乡种植经济树木。
12:51
And also starting开始 to play around with the idea理念 of
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同时开始推广
12:53
alternative替代 currencies货币.
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可替换的流通货币的想法。
12:55
This is Lewes刘易斯 in Sussex苏塞克斯,
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这是在苏塞克斯Sussex的刘易斯市Lewes
12:57
who have recently最近 launched推出 the Lewes刘易斯 Pound,
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最近投放上市的刘易斯英镑,
13:00
a currency货币 that you can only spend within the town,
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它只能在当地流通,
13:02
as a way of starting开始 to cycle周期 money within the local本地 economy经济.
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成为了当地循环经济的开始。
13:05
You take it anywhere随地 else其他, it's not worth价值 anything.
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而你在其他地方用这种货币,它就一文不值了。
13:07
But actually其实 within the town you start开始 to create创建 these economic经济
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但实际上这种循环经济模式在当地
13:10
cycles周期 much more effectively有效.
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非常有效。
13:13
Another另一个 thing that they do is what we call an energy能源 descent降落 plan计划,
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他们做的另一件事,我们称之为节约能源计划,
13:15
which哪一个 is basically基本上 to develop发展 a plan计划 B for the town.
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是为城镇而开发的另一个B计划。
13:18
Most of our local本地 authorities当局, when they sit down to plan计划
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但我们大部分当地政府开始着手
13:21
for the next下一个 five, 10, 15, 20 years年份 of a community社区,
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未来5年,10年,15年到20年计划时,
13:24
still start开始 by assuming假设 that there will be more energy能源,
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还都理所当然地认为会有更多石油能源,
13:27
more cars汽车, more housing住房,
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更多汽车,更多房屋,
13:29
more jobs工作, more growth发展, and so on.
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更多工作,更多增长等等。
13:31
What does it look like if that's not the case案件? And how can we embrace拥抱 that
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如果情况不是那样,会怎样呢?我们又该如何接受
13:34
and actually其实 come up with something that was actually其实 more likely容易
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现实中想到的事情真的很有可能
13:36
to sustain支持 everybody每个人?
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来养活大家?
13:38
As a friend朋友 of mine says, "Life is a series系列 of things you're not quite相当 ready准备 for."
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我的一个朋友说:生活是由一系列你完全没有准备好的事情组成的。
13:43
And that's certainly当然 been my experience经验 with transition过渡.
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那也正是我亲身经历的转变,
13:45
From three years年份 ago, it just being存在 an idea理念,
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在3年前,它仅仅是一个想法,
13:47
this has become成为 something that has virally病毒 swept风靡 around the world世界.
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这转变已经快速风靡世界。
13:51
We're getting得到 a lot of interest利益 from government政府. Ed埃德 Miliband米利班德,
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这也吸引了政府议员,这个国家(英国)能源部长埃德米利班德Ed Miliband的兴趣,
13:53
the energy能源 minister部长 of this country国家, was invited邀请 to come to our recent最近 conference会议
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我们邀请他参加我们最近的会议
13:57
as a keynote基调 listener倾听者.
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作为一个演讲听众。
13:59
Which哪一个 he did --
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14:01
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
14:02
(Applause掌声) --
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(掌声)
14:05
and has since以来 become成为 a great advocate主张 of the whole整个 idea理念.
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并从此成为整个转变想法的极力提倡者。
14:09
There are now two local本地 authorities当局 in this country国家
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这个国家目前有两个当地政府
14:12
who have declared声明 themselves他们自己 transitional过渡 local本地 authorities当局,
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声明它们要转变为不依赖石油的当地政府,
14:14
Leicestershire莱斯特 and Somerset萨默塞特. And in Stroud斯特劳德,
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莱斯特郡Leicestershiere 和萨默塞特郡Somerset。在斯特劳德市Stroud
14:16
the transition过渡 group there, in effect影响, wrote the local本地 government's政府的 food餐饮 plan计划.
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转变组真的为当地政府起草了食物计划。
14:21
And the head of the council评议会 said,
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委员会主席说,
14:23
"If we didn't have Transition过渡 Stroud斯特劳德, we would have to invent发明
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“如果我们没有转变斯特劳德市Transition Stround,我们也得首次创新
14:25
all of that community社区 infrastructure基础设施 for the first time."
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所有社区的基础设施。”
14:29
As we see the spread传播 of it, we see national国民 hubs集线器 emerging新兴.
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正如我们看到的转变响应的蔓延,国家的转变提上议程。
14:32
In Scotland苏格兰, the Scottish苏格兰的 government's政府的 climate气候 change更改 fund基金
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在苏格兰Scotland,Scottish苏格兰政府气候变化基金
14:35
has funded资助 Transition过渡 Scotland苏格兰
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已投资转变苏格兰Transition Scotland
14:37
as a national国民 organization组织 supporting支持 the spread传播 of this.
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作为国家资助项目发展。
14:40
And we see it all over the place地点 as well now.
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正如大家所见,目前所有地方都开展了。
14:43
But the key to transition过渡 is thinking思维 not that we have to change更改 everything now,
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不过,转变的关键是我们现在没有改变所有,
14:46
but that things are already已经 inevitably必将 changing改变,
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但很多已经不可避免的改变了,
14:49
and what we need to do is to work creatively创造性 with that,
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我们所做的就是创造性的开展工作,
14:52
based基于 on asking the right questions问题.
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提出正确的问题。
14:55
I think I'd like to just return返回 at the end结束
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我想我应该返回到
14:57
to the idea理念 of stories故事.
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这个想法故事的结尾。
14:59
Because I think stories故事 are vital重要 here.
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因为我认为这些故事比较生动和重要。
15:01
And actually其实 the stories故事 that we tell ourselves我们自己,
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我们自己谈论着实际中的故事,
15:03
we have a huge巨大 dearth缺乏 of stories故事 about how to move移动 forward前锋 creatively创造性 from here.
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除这里分享的,我们还缺乏大量故事来指导我们创新的转变。
15:08
And one of the key things that transition过渡 does
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关键的一点是
15:10
is to pull those stories故事 out of what people are doing.
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人们把他们做的这种转变创新的故事用来分享。
15:12
Stories故事 about the community社区 that's produced生成
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例如,社区可以自行生产
15:15
its own拥有 21 pound note注意, for example,
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21英镑纸币,
15:18
the school学校 that's turned转身 its car汽车 park公园 into a food餐饮 garden花园,
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把学校的汽车停车场转变为一个食物菜园地,
15:21
the community社区 that's founded成立 its own拥有 energy能源 company公司.
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建立自己能源工厂的社区等等的故事。
15:24
And for me, one of the great stories故事 recently最近
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对我来说,最近一个精彩的故事
15:26
was the Obamas奥巴马 digging挖掘 up the south lawn草坪 of the White白色 House
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是奥巴马夫妇在白宫南草坪
15:29
to create创建 a vegetable蔬菜 garden花园. Because the last time that was doneDONE,
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开辟蔬菜园地。因为上次这么做还要
15:31
when Eleanor埃莉诺 Roosevelt罗斯福 did it,
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提起埃莉诺罗斯福Eleanor Roosevelt,
15:33
it led to the creation创建 of 20 million百万 vegetable蔬菜 gardens花园 across横过 the United联合的 States状态.
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它引领了全美2千万蔬菜菜园的兴建。
15:38
So the question I'd like to leave离开 you with, really,
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所以我留给你们的问题是,
15:40
is -- for all aspects方面 of the things that your community社区 needs需求
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为了你们社区繁荣,考虑所需的方方面面
15:44
in order订购 to thrive兴旺,
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的事情,
15:46
how can it be doneDONE in such这样 a way
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如何实施这种转变响应来
15:48
that drastically大幅 reduces减少 its carbon emissions排放,
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大幅降低二氧化碳排放,
15:51
while also building建造 resilience弹性?
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又同时建立可恢复性的繁荣?
15:53
Personally亲自, I feel enormously巨大 grateful感激
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从我个人而言,我非常的感谢
15:55
to have lived生活 through通过 the age年龄 of cheap低廉 oil.
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我所经历过的廉价石油年代。
15:58
I've been astonishingly令人惊讶 lucky幸运, we've我们已经 been astonishingly令人惊讶 lucky幸运.
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我曾非常幸运,我们曾非常幸运。
16:02
But let us honor荣誉 what it has bought us,
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让我们为石油所提供给我们的一切感到荣幸,
16:04
and move移动 forward前锋 from this point.
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但从现在起要转变改进。
16:06
Because if we cling依偎 to it, and continue继续 to assume承担
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因为如果我们依然依靠石油,继续这样的消耗
16:08
that it can underpin支撑 our choices选择,
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支撑着我们的选择权,
16:11
the future未来 that it presents礼物 to us is one which哪一个 is really unmanageable不可收拾.
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我们所要面对的未来会越加难以驾驭。
16:14
And by loving爱心 and leaving离开 all that oil has doneDONE for us,
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由热爱石油,到远离石油
16:17
and that the Oil Age年龄 has doneDONE for us,
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和石油年代供给给我们的一切,
16:19
we are able能够 to then begin开始 the creation创建
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我们将开创
16:21
of a world世界 which哪一个 is more resilient弹性,
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一个更具有可恢复性的,
16:24
more nourishing滋补,
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更有活力的世界,
16:26
and in which哪一个, we find ourselves我们自己 fitter钳工, more skilled技能的
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我们将发现人与人彼此间更加健康,更加优秀,
16:29
and more connected连接的 to each other.
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和联系的更加紧密。
16:31
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢。
16:33
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
Translated by dong liu
Reviewed by Angelia King

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rob Hopkins - Resilience leader
Rob Hopkins is the founder of the Transition movement, a radically hopeful and community-driven approach to creating societies independent of fossil fuel.

Why you should listen

Rob Hopkins leads a vibrant new movement of towns and cities that utilize local cooperation and interdependence to shrink their ecological footprints. In the face of climate change he developed the concept of Transition Initiatives -- communities that produce their own goods and services, curb the need for transportation and take other measures to prepare for a post-oil future. While Transition shares certain principles with greenness and sustainability, it is a deeper vision concerned with re-imagining our future in a self-sufficient way and building resiliency.

Transforming theory to action, Hopkins is also the co-founder and a resident of the first Transition Initiative in the UK, in Totnes, Devon. As he refuses to fly, it is from his home in Totnes that he offers help to hundreds of similar communities that have sprung up around the world, in part through his blog, transitionculture.org.

Hopkins, who's trained in ecological design, wrote the principal work on the subject, Transition Handbook: From Oil Dependency to Local Resilience, a 12-step manual for a postcarbon future. Find notes and slides from his TEDTalk here >>

More profile about the speaker
Rob Hopkins | Speaker | TED.com