TEDGlobal 2009
Rob Hopkins: Transition to a world without oil
Rob Hopkins: 逐漸過渡到無油世界
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Rob Hopkins 提醒我們，我們所賴以為生的石油已逐漸殆盡。他提出一個獨特的解決方案: 準備好過渡到一個無油的生活、犧牲我們的奢侈生活，以建立一個完全獨立於化石燃料的體制與全球社區。
Rob Hopkins - Resilience leader
Rob Hopkins is the founder of the Transition movement, a radically hopeful and community-driven approach to creating societies independent of fossil fuel. Full bio
Rob Hopkins is the founder of the Transition movement, a radically hopeful and community-driven approach to creating societies independent of fossil fuel. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
As a culture, we tell ourselves lots of stories
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人類文化裡，有許多
00:21
about the future,
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關於未來的故事
00:23
and where we might move forward from this point.
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這些故事激勵我們前進
00:25
Some of those stories are that
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在某些故事中
00:27
somebody is just going to sort everything out for us.
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有人努力採取對策
00:30
Other stories are that everything is on the verge of unraveling.
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在另一些故事中，所有事物都瀕臨瓦解
00:34
But I want to tell you a different story here today.
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但我今天要帶來一個不同的故事
00:36
Like all stories, it has a beginning.
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如同所有故事，它也有起始
00:39
My work, for a long time, has been involved in education,
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長期以來，我涉入教育事業甚深
00:42
in teaching people practical skills
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我教人們
00:44
for sustainability,
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永續性的實用技能
00:46
teaching people how to take responsibility
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教大家如何承擔責任
00:48
for growing some of their own food,
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比如，自己耕種、
00:50
how to build buildings using local materials,
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用在地的材料蓋房子、
00:52
how to generate their own energy, and so on.
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使用自發的電力......等等
00:55
I lived in Ireland, built the first straw-bale houses in Ireland,
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我住在愛爾蘭，在那裡造了第一座稻草屋，
00:59
and some cob buildings and all this kind of thing.
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和一些圓形建築與其他類似的事
01:02
But all my work for many years was focused
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很多年來，在我的工作中，我都關注於
01:05
around the idea that sustainability
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一個想法: 永續性
01:07
means basically looking at
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它意謂著: 著眼於
01:09
the globalized economic growth model,
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全球經濟成長模型、
01:12
and moderating what comes in at one end,
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監控其所投入的，
01:14
and moderating the outputs at the other end.
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也調節著另一端產出
01:17
And then I came into contact with a way of looking at things
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接著，我開始觀察
01:20
which actually changed that profoundly.
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那些根深蒂固的巨大轉變
01:22
And in order to introduce you to that,
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為了向大家清楚介紹
01:24
I've got something here that I'm going to unveil,
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在這裏，我打算向各位展示
01:26
which is one of the great marvels of the modern age.
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一個現代的偉大奇蹟
01:29
And it's something so astounding and so astonishing
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它是如此驚天動地
01:31
that I think maybe as I remove this cloth
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所以我不如先揭開它的真面目
01:34
a suitable gasp of amazement might be appropriate.
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讓大家喘口氣，再來述說比較合適
01:37
If you could help me with that it would be fantastic.
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如果你們能幫我一下，那就再好不過了
01:44
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
01:45
This is a liter of oil.
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這是一公升的石油
01:48
This bottle of oil,
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這瓶油
01:51
distilled over a hundred million years of geological time,
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是從上億年前的地質中所提煉而出
01:54
ancient sunlight,
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經過遠古的陽光照射
01:56
contains the energy equivalent of about five weeks
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它飽含的能量相當於5星期的
01:58
hard human manual labor --
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人類體力勞動——
02:01
equivalent to about 35 strong people
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相當於三十五個壯漢
02:05
coming round and working for you.
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為您服務
02:08
We can turn it into a dazzling array of materials,
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我們可以把它轉變為各式各樣令人炫目的材料:
02:12
medicine, modern clothing,
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藥物、現代服飾、
02:14
laptops, a whole range of different things.
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筆記型電腦、還有其他不同的材料等等
02:18
It gives us an energy return that's unimaginable, historically.
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它給予我們歷史上難以想像的巨大能源收益:
02:23
We've based the design of our settlements,
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我們賴以為生的生計、
02:25
our business models, our transport plans,
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經濟學模型、運輸計畫、
02:27
even the idea of economic growth, some would argue,
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甚至經濟成長的觀點，都以它為基礎而設計，有些人
02:30
on the assumption that we will have this in perpetuity.
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認定我們可以永久地使用石油
02:34
Yet, when we take a step back,
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然而，倘若我們退一步
02:37
and look over the span of history,
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審視整個人類的歷史
02:39
at what we might call the petroleum interval,
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我們所謂的石油時代
02:42
it's a short period in history
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從我們發現這個無與倫比的材料，
02:44
where we've discovered this extraordinary material,
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到完全依賴石油之間的這個短暫時期
02:47
and then based a whole way of life around it.
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不過是歷史中的一瞬罷了
02:50
But as we straddle the top of this energy mountain, at this stage,
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但，當我們處在現階段能源的頂峰時，
02:54
we move from a time where our economic success,
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我們已脫離了以往那個時期:
02:57
our sense of individual prowess and well-being
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經濟效益、個人能力和福利
03:00
is directly linked to how much of this we consume,
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必須直接取決於我們對能源的消耗；
03:04
to a time when actually our degree of oil dependency
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而現在，我們來到了一個高度依賴石油的時期
03:07
is our degree of vulnerability.
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這正是我們的弱點
03:09
And it's increasingly clear that we
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有一個日益明白的道理:
03:11
aren't going to be able to rely on the fact that
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我們將無法再以
03:13
we're going to have this at our disposal forever.
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這樣的方式處置能源了
03:16
For every four barrels of oil that we consume,
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我們每消耗4桶石油，
03:18
we only discover one.
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卻只能發現1桶。
03:20
And that gap continues to widen.
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這個鴻溝持續不斷地擴大
03:22
There is also the fact that the amount of energy
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同時，我們從石油中所發掘出的能源
03:24
that we get back from the oil that we discover is falling.
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正在減少
03:27
In the 1930s we got 100 units of energy back
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1930年代，我們每個人可以從提煉石油中
03:30
for every one that we put in to extract it.
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得到100單位的能源
03:33
Completely unprecedented, historically.
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這個數據在歷史上前所未見
03:35
Already that's fallen to about 11.
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現在，能源利用值已跌到11
03:37
And that's why, now,
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這就是為什麼，現在
03:39
the new breakthroughs, the new frontiers
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石油萃取的新技術
03:41
in terms of oil extraction are scrambling about in Alberta,
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爭奪得如此激烈的原因，不管是在Alberta
03:44
or at the bottom of the oceans.
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還是在海底
03:46
There are 98 oil-producing nations in the world.
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世界上有98個產油國
03:49
But of those, 65 have already passed their peak.
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但，其中65個已經超過了開採的高峰
03:52
The moment when the world on average passes this peak,
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世界平均開採早晚都會超過這個峰值
03:55
people wonder when that's going to happen.
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人們只想知道什麼時候發生
03:57
And there is an emerging case
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一個新近的例子是
03:58
that maybe that was what happened last July
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大約在去年7月所發生的
04:00
when the oil prices were so high.
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油價上漲
04:02
But are we to assume that the same brilliance
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然而，人類的智慧、
04:04
and creativity and adaptability
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創造力、與適應力
04:06
that got us up to the top of that energy mountain in the first place
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曾使我們第一次達到了能源高峰，
04:09
is somehow mysteriously going to evaporate
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當我們必須設計一個新的解決方案，讓自己越過低谷時
04:12
when we have to design a creative way back down the other side?
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這種智慧、創造力、和適應力為何莫名其妙地神秘蒸發了呢？
04:16
No. But the thinking that we have to come up with
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不，這想法並不正確。
04:19
has to be based on a realistic assessment
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這是基於一個現實的假設，
04:22
of where we are.
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我們已經達到了開採巔峰
04:24
There is also the issue of climate change,
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面對氣候變化時，
04:26
is the other thing that underpins this transition approach.
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也同樣支持了這種轉變方法。
04:28
But the thing that I notice, as I talk to climate scientists,
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當我和氣候學家討論時，我注意到
04:31
is the increasingly terrified look they have in their eyes,
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他們眼裏與日俱增的恐懼，
04:34
as the data that's coming in,
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它是伴隨著近日比 IPCC（聯合國政府間氣候變化專門委員會）
04:36
which is far ahead of what the IPCC are talking about.
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更有說服力更新資料而出現的
04:40
So the IPCC said
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IPCC 的提到:
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that we might see significant breakup
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我們可以預見2100年
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of the arctic ice in 2100, in their worst case scenario.
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在最壞的情況下，北極冰川嚴重斷裂。
04:47
Actually, if current trends continue,
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事實上，如果目前的趨勢持續惡化，
04:50
it could all be gone in five or 10 years' time.
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它將在五年或十年內發生。
04:52
If just three percent of the carbon locked up in the arctic permafrost
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如果北極永凍土中所包含的 3% 的二氧化碳
04:56
is released as the world warms,
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在全球暖化中釋放，
04:58
it would offset all the savings that we need to make,
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它將抵消我們為減少二氧化碳所做的一切努力，
05:00
in carbon, over the next 40 years to avoid runaway climate change.
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在未來的四十年間，將難以防範無常的氣候變化
05:03
We have no choice other than deep and urgent decarbonization.
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除了更進一步實施緊急二氧化碳減排，我們沒有其他選擇
05:08
But I'm always very interested to think about
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但我一直好奇地想著
05:10
what might the stories be
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也許故事是這樣的:
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that the generations further down the slope from us
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下幾個世代的人們
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are going to tell about us.
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將會告訴我們
05:17
"The generation that lived at the top of the mountain,
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「我們這一世代，生活在山頂，
05:20
that partied so hard, and so abused its inheritance."
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忍受艱難，亦所剩無幾。」
05:25
And one of the ways I like to do that
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我喜歡的方法之一是
05:27
is to look back at the stories people used to tell
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回首往事時，人們通常這麼說:
05:29
before we had cheap oil, before we had fossil fuels,
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在我們擁有便宜的汽油和化石燃料之前，
05:32
and people relied on their own muscle, animal muscle energy,
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人們依賴於他們的肌肉、動物肌肉中的能量、
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or a little bit of wind, little bit of water energy.
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或者一些風能水力
05:38
We had stories like "The Seven-League Boots":
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我們有像「七大靴子」的童話故事:
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the giant who had these boots, where, once you put them on,
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一旦巨人穿上這樣的靴子，
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with every stride you could cover seven leagues, or 21 miles,
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每邁出一步，可以完 21 英里，
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a kind of travel completely unimaginable
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對於沒有這種功能靴子的人們來說，
05:49
to people without that kind of energy at their disposal.
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這是一種完全無法想像的旅程
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Stories like The Magic Porridge Pot,
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還有像「神奇魔術鍋」的故事，
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where you had a pot where if you knew the magic words,
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如果你知道術語，你可以讓一個魔術鍋
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this pot would just make as much food as you liked,
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不斷地做出你想要的食物，
06:00
without you having to do any work,
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當然你什麽也無需做
06:02
provided you could remember the other magic word to stop it making porridge.
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假如你記得其他術語，就可以停止做燕麥粥
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Otherwise you'd flood your entire town with warm porridge.
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否則，整個城市將被溫燕麥粥淹沒
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There is the story of "The Elves and the Shoemaker."
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還有一個「鞋匠和小矮人」的故事
06:12
The people who make shoes go to sleep, wake up in the morning,
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鞋匠晚上沒做完鞋就睡著了，當他早上睡醒的時候，
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and all the shoes are magically made for them.
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卻發現所有的鞋子都神奇地做好了
06:16
It's something that was unimaginable to people then.
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對人類來說，這真是不可思議
06:19
Now we have the seven-league boots
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現在，我們有 Ryanair 和 Easyjet 飛機形式的
06:22
in the form of Ryanair and Easyjet.
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七大靴子
06:25
We have the magic porridge pot
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也有類似神奇魔術鍋的
06:27
in the form of Walmart and Tesco.
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Walmart 和 Tesco 等大型超市
06:29
And we have the elves in the form of China.
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還有好比小矮人一樣的中國
06:32
But we don't appreciate what an astonishing
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但是我們並不特別感謝
06:36
thing that has been.
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這些令人驚愕的正發生的事情
06:38
And what are the stories that we tell ourselves now,
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現在我們要講的
06:40
as we look forward about where we're going to go.
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是我們所期盼的的關於前途的問題
06:43
And I would argue that there are four. There is the idea of business as usual,
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我認為有四個方向，通常的商業想法是
06:46
that the future will be like the present, just more of it.
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未來僅只是現在的延續，甚至是更好
06:49
But as we've seen over the last year, I think that's an idea
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然而回顧去年，我認為那個想法
06:51
that is increasingly coming into question.
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已逐漸成為問題
06:53
And in terms of climate change,
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從氣候變遷上看來，
06:55
is something that is not actually feasible.
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事實上，這想法行不通
06:59
There is the idea of hitting the wall,
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還有一個碰壁的想法是
07:01
that actually somehow everything is so fragile
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所有東西都變得很脆弱，
07:04
that it might just all unravel and collapse.
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即將瓦解，全部崩潰
07:06
This is a popular story in some places.
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在某些地方，這是一種流行的故事
07:09
The third story is the idea that technology can solve everything,
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第三種想法是: 科技可以解決所有問題
07:12
that technology can somehow get us through this completely.
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科技可以帶領我們完全客服困難
07:16
And it's an idea that I think is very prevalent at these TED Talks,
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我認為，這種觀點在 TED 討論者當中非常普遍，
07:20
the idea that we can invent our way out of a profound
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我們發明一種方法，走出嚴峻的
07:23
economic and energy crisis,
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經濟與能源危機，
07:25
that a move to a knowledge economy
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這種知識經濟的運動可以
07:27
can somehow neatly sidestep those energy constraints,
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遠離能源的桎梏與瓶頸，
07:30
the idea that we'll discover some fabulous new source of energy
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發現一些極好的新能源，
07:33
that will mean we can sweep all concerns
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使我們可以把
07:35
about energy security to one side,
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能源安全的問題擱置一邊，
07:38
the idea that we can step off neatly
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於是輕鬆地邁入
07:40
onto a completely renewable world.
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一個全新的可再生能源世界
07:42
But the world isn't Second Life.
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然而，世界並非「第二人生」（遊戲: Second Life）
07:44
We can't create new land and new energy systems at the click of a mouse.
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我們不能單單地憑藉點擊滑鼠，創造出新大陸和新的能源體系
07:48
And as we sit, exchanging free ideas with each other,
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當我們坐在這裏，彼此自由交換點子的時候，
07:51
there are still people mining coal
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仍然有人在挖煤，
07:53
in order to power the servers, extracting the minerals
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爲了提供能量，
07:55
to make all of those things.
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使之運轉
07:57
The breakfast that we eat as we sit down
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當我們早上坐下來
07:59
to check our email in the morning
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查閱郵件的時候，
08:01
is still transported at great distances,
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早餐仍然是從從很遠的地方運來，
08:03
usually at the expense of the local, more resilient
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通常，取自當地、更具恢復性的食物系統
08:05
food systems that would have supplied that in the past,
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長久以來便存在
08:08
which we've so effectively devalued and dismantled.
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我們卻大大地低估它，甚至讓它們消失
08:12
We can be astonishingly inventive and creative.
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我們極具創意與發明性
08:15
But we also live in a world with very real constraints and demands.
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然而在現實約束的世界中
08:19
Energy and technology are not the same thing.
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能源和科技不是同一件事
08:22
What I'm involved with is the transition response.
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於是，我參與了回應轉變的積極措施。
08:24
And this is really about looking the challenges
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這是當前關於
08:27
of peak oil and climate change square in the face,
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石油開採高峰和氣候變化的巨大挑戰，
08:29
and responding with a creativity and an adaptability
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以創造性、適應性、
08:32
and an imagination that we really need.
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和我們急需的想像力來回應
08:35
It's something which has spread incredibly fast.
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這個轉變以驚人的速度散播
08:38
And it is something which has several characteristics.
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它有多種特徵，
08:40
It's viral. It seems to spread under the radar very, very quickly.
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像病毒一樣，猶如在雷達偵測下飛快傳播著
08:45
It's open source. It's something which everybody who's involved with it
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它是開放的，每個從事這個工作的人
08:49
develops and passes on as they work with it.
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開發、並且把知識分享給他人
08:53
It's self-organizing. There is no great central organization
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自我組織，沒有龐大的中央機構
08:56
that pushes this; people just pick up an idea
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來推動，人們一有想法
08:58
and they run with it, and they implement it where they are.
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就實地運作，貫徹執行
09:01
It's solutions-focused. It's very much looking at what people can do
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它是問題解決取向的，在很大的程度上，端看人們
09:04
where they are, to respond to this.
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如何設身處地行事，進行回應
09:07
It's sensitive to place and to scale.
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根據不同的地方、規模，會不同的因應措施
09:09
Transitional is completely different.
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轉變方式也完全不同
09:11
Transition groups in Chile, transition groups in the U.S., transition groups here,
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無論是智利的轉變小組、美國的轉變小組，還是這裏的轉變小組，
09:15
what they're doing looks very different in every place that you go to.
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每個地方看法都不一樣
09:18
It learns very much from its mistakes.
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從錯誤中，你可以學習到很多
09:20
And it feels historic. It tries to create a sense
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這個轉變極具歷史意義。它創造了一種
09:23
that this is a historic opportunity
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歷史機會
09:25
to do something really extraordinary.
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讓人們從事非凡的事業
09:27
And it's a process which is really joyful.
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在此過程中，的確充滿樂趣
09:29
People have a huge amount of fun doing this,
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在做這件事時，人們感到充滿喜悅
09:31
reconnecting with other people as they do it.
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許多人也彼此串聯
09:34
One of the things that underpins it is this idea of resilience.
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支持上述的其中一個觀點是所謂的彈性思維
09:37
And I think, in many ways, the idea of resilience
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我認為，在許多方面，這種彈性思維
09:40
is a more useful concept than the idea of sustainability.
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比永續續理論更有效
09:44
The idea of resilience comes from the study of ecology.
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彈性思維源自於生態學
09:46
And it's really about how systems,
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它與系統、
09:49
settlements, withstand shock from the outside.
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定居、與如何抵擋外部衝擊等息息相關
09:52
When they encounter shock from the outside
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當它們遇到外部衝擊時，
09:54
that they don't just unravel and fall to pieces.
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它們不只分解或崩潰而已
09:56
And I think it's a more useful concept than sustainability, as I said.
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我認為彈性思維比永續的觀點更有用，正如我所說的
10:00
When our supermarkets have only two or three days' worth of food in them
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在任何時候，當超市只有2、3天的食物存貨時，
10:04
at any one time, often sustainability tends to focus on
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通常永續理論關注於
10:07
the energy efficiency of the freezers
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冰箱的功效、
10:09
and on the packaging that the lettuces are wrapped up in.
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和生菜的包裝
10:12
Looking through the lens of resilience,
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從彈性思維的角度來看，
10:14
we really question how we've let ourselves get into a situation
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我們會質疑 自己竟依賴於這種
10:18
that's so vulnerable.
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如此脆弱的超市消費模式
10:20
Resilience runs much deeper:
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彈性可以更廣泛地運作:
10:22
it's about building modularity into what we do,
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它從我們所做的事中建立模型
10:24
building surge breakers into how we organize the basic things that support us.
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我們應該如何自行組織、建立生產自給自足必需品的社區
10:29
This is a photograph of the Bristol and District
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這是布里斯托 (Bristol) 和湖區的照片，
10:31
Market Gardeners Association, in 1897.
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1897 年，市場園丁協會(Market Gardeners Association)成立了
10:35
This is at a time when the city of Bristol,
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當時，布里斯托市
10:37
which is quite close to here,
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就在這附近，
10:39
was surrounded by commercial market gardens,
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四周圍繞著商業市場菜園，
10:41
which provided a significant amount of the food
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提供城市所需的大量食物，
10:44
that was consumed in the town, and created a lot of employment for people, as well.
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也創造了許多就業機會
10:48
There was a degree of resilience, if you like, at that time,
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這就是彈性思維的一個例子，
10:51
which we can now only look back on with envy.
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現在我們只能帶著欽羨的眼光 回首過去
10:55
So how does this transition idea work?
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因此，轉變的想法是如何運作的?
10:57
So basically, you have a group of people who are excited by the idea.
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大體上，有很多人為這個想法感到興奮不已
11:00
They pick up some of the tools that we've developed.
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他們使用我們已開發的一些工具，
11:03
They start to run an awareness-raising program
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他們發起宣導活動，
11:05
looking at how this might actually work in the town.
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在城鎮中，測試實際運作情況
11:08
They show films, they give talks, and so on.
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他們播放電影、開啟討論等等
11:10
It's a process which is playful and creative
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過程有趣而且極具創意
11:13
and informative.
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同時也具有教育意義
11:15
Then they start to form working groups, looking at different aspects of this,
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接著他們開始籌建工作小組，分別負責不同的方面，
11:18
and then from that, there emerge a whole lot of projects
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從這個活動開始，延伸出許多計劃
11:21
which then the transition project itself
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使得轉變計劃本身
11:23
starts to support and enable.
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開始獲得支持與運作
11:28
So it started out with some work I was involved in in Ireland,
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在愛爾蘭我開始了相關的工作，
11:30
where I was teaching, and has since spread.
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愛爾蘭是我教學的地方，也是工作展開的地方
11:32
There are now over 200 formal transition projects.
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目前已有超過200項正式的轉變專案
11:35
And there are thousands of others who are at what we call the mulling stage.
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在我們的醞釀階段，曾有上千的工作人員
11:39
They are mulling whether they're going to take it further.
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他們醞釀這些方案的未來可行性
11:41
And actually a lot of them are doing huge amounts of stuff.
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實際上，他們許多人做了大量的工作
11:44
But what do they actually do? You know, it's a kind of nice idea,
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但實際上到底做了什麼呢？大家知道，這是一個新穎的想法，
11:46
but what do they actually do on the ground?
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實際的情況如何？
11:48
Well, I think it's really important to make the point that actually
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嗯，我認為有一點非常重要，
11:52
you know, this isn't something which is going to do everything on its own.
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大家都知道，轉變不是一蹴可幾的
11:55
We need international legislation from Copenhagen and so on.
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我們需要哥本哈根大會的立法...
11:59
We need national responses. We need local government responses.
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我們需要國內的回應、我們需要地方政府的回應
12:02
But all of those things are going to be much easier
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然而所有事情都會變得非常簡單
12:05
if we have communities that are vibrant and coming up with ideas
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只要我們有活躍的社區與最新的想法，
12:08
and leading from the front, making unelectable policies electable,
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加上引領群眾，使相關政策 在接下來的五到十年
12:11
over the next 5 to 10 years.
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通過立法
12:13
Some of the things that emerge from it are local food projects,
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許多計劃會相繼出現，比如本地食物計劃、
12:16
like community-supported agriculture schemes,
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比如社區支持的農業計畫、
12:18
urban food production, creating local food directories, and so on.
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都市食物計畫、在地飲食目錄等等
12:22
A lot of places now are starting to set up their own energy companies,
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目前，許多地方已自行建立發電廠、
12:25
community-owned energy companies,
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社區自建電廠
12:27
where the community can invest money into itself,
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它們由社區獨立投資
12:29
to start putting in place
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開始建立
12:31
the kind of renewable energy infrastructure that we need.
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可再生能源基礎設施，這正是我們所需要的
12:33
A lot of places are working with their local schools.
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在許多地方，學校也參與進來
12:36
Newent in the Forest of Dean: big polytunnel they built for the school;
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迪恩森林國家公園附近的 Newent 市: 人們在學校建起大型的結構聚乙烯管道(polytunnel)，
12:38
the kids are learning how to grow food.
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孩子在那學習如何種植食物
12:40
Promoting recycling, things like garden-share,
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提倡循環再利用，例如菜園共用，
12:43
that matches up people who don't have a garden
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使沒有菜園的人們
12:45
who would like to grow food, with people who have gardens they aren't using anymore.
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可以在閒置的地方種植食物
12:48
Planting productive trees throughout urban spaces.
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在廣闊的都市空間種植經濟作物
12:51
And also starting to play around with the idea of
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同時，也開始推廣
12:53
alternative currencies.
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另類流通貨幣的概念
12:55
This is Lewes in Sussex,
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這是在薩塞克斯的路易斯市(Lewes)
12:57
who have recently launched the Lewes Pound,
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當地近來推行了路易斯英鎊，
13:00
a currency that you can only spend within the town,
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這是一種只能在當地流通的貨幣
13:02
as a way of starting to cycle money within the local economy.
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作為地區經濟的流動貨幣之用
13:05
You take it anywhere else, it's not worth anything.
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在其他地方，此貨幣就一文不值了
13:07
But actually within the town you start to create these economic
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但實際上，在當地，這種經濟循環模式
13:10
cycles much more effectively.
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是更加有效率的
13:13
Another thing that they do is what we call an energy descent plan,
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他們做的另一件事，稱為節約能源計畫，
13:15
which is basically to develop a plan B for the town.
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這是一個為城鎮開發的備用計畫
13:18
Most of our local authorities, when they sit down to plan
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當大部分的地方政府在為未來五年、十年、十五年、到二十年
13:21
for the next five, 10, 15, 20 years of a community,
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著手進行計劃時，
13:24
still start by assuming that there will be more energy,
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仍然理所當然地認為 未來將有更多的石化能源、
13:27
more cars, more housing,
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更多汽車、更多房屋、
13:29
more jobs, more growth, and so on.
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更多工作、以及更多成長等等
13:31
What does it look like if that's not the case? And how can we embrace that
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倘若情況不是那樣呢？我們要如何才能
13:34
and actually come up with something that was actually more likely
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採納新的解決辦法
13:36
to sustain everybody?
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來永續經營社區？
13:38
As a friend of mine says, "Life is a series of things you're not quite ready for."
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就如我的一個朋友說：「生活是由一連串毫無準備的事所組成的。」
13:43
And that's certainly been my experience with transition.
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而那也是我親身經歷的轉變，
13:45
From three years ago, it just being an idea,
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三年前，它僅僅只是一個想法，
13:47
this has become something that has virally swept around the world.
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如今，這一轉變已快速散播到世界各地
13:51
We're getting a lot of interest from government. Ed Miliband,
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我們引起政府的興趣，Ed Miliband (英國能源部長)
13:53
the energy minister of this country, was invited to come to our recent conference
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最近受邀參加我們的會議
13:57
as a keynote listener.
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作為一個演講的聽眾
13:59
Which he did --
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他的確—
14:01
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
14:02
(Applause) --
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（掌聲）
14:05
and has since become a great advocate of the whole idea.
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成為整個轉變想法的極力倡議者
14:09
There are now two local authorities in this country
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目前，在這個國家 有兩個地方政府
14:12
who have declared themselves transitional local authorities,
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宣佈它們要轉變為不依賴石油的政府，
14:14
Leicestershire and Somerset. And in Stroud,
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萊斯特郡 (Leicestershiere) 和薩默塞特郡 (Somerset)。另外，在斯特勞德市 (Stroud)，
14:16
the transition group there, in effect, wrote the local government's food plan.
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轉變小組真的為當地政府起草了食物計畫
14:21
And the head of the council said,
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委員會主席說：
14:23
"If we didn't have Transition Stroud, we would have to invent
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「如果我們沒有徹底『轉變斯特勞德市』(Transition Stroud)，我們至少也得率先發明
14:25
all of that community infrastructure for the first time."
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所有社區的基礎設施。」
14:29
As we see the spread of it, we see national hubs emerging.
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正如計劃的大量散播，我們看到了國家把轉變計劃交付議會議程
14:32
In Scotland, the Scottish government's climate change fund
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在蘇格蘭，蘇格蘭政府氣候變遷基金
14:35
has funded Transition Scotland
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提供資金給「轉變蘇格蘭」(Transition Scotland)
14:37
as a national organization supporting the spread of this.
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作為支持計劃廣泛傳播的國家機構
14:40
And we see it all over the place as well now.
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誠如大家所見，目前所有地方都已大量開展了
14:43
But the key to transition is thinking not that we have to change everything now,
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然而，轉變的關鍵是，不要想著我們必須一朝一夕地改變所有事
14:46
but that things are already inevitably changing,
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而是，改變那些急需、迫切的事
14:49
and what we need to do is to work creatively with that,
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我們要做的，是創意地從事這些計劃
14:52
based on asking the right questions.
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提出正確的問題
14:55
I think I'd like to just return at the end
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不如讓我直接回到
14:57
to the idea of stories.
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這想法的故事結尾
14:59
Because I think stories are vital here.
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因為我認為這些故事很重要
15:01
And actually the stories that we tell ourselves,
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我們自己談論著實際中的故事，
15:03
we have a huge dearth of stories about how to move forward creatively from here.
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我們還缺少許多故事來指導我們進行創意的轉變
15:08
And one of the key things that transition does
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關於轉變，關鍵的一點是
15:10
is to pull those stories out of what people are doing.
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分享人們所做的故事
15:12
Stories about the community that's produced
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比如，社區可以自行生產
15:15
its own 21 pound note, for example,
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21英鎊紙幣，
15:18
the school that's turned its car park into a food garden,
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或是，把學校的汽車停車場轉變為一個食物花園
15:21
the community that's founded its own energy company.
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建立自己的社區發電廠等等
15:24
And for me, one of the great stories recently
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對我來說，最近有個精彩的故事
15:26
was the Obamas digging up the south lawn of the White House
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是歐巴馬夫婦在白宮南邊的草坪
15:29
to create a vegetable garden. Because the last time that was done,
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開闢蔬菜園，因為當上次
15:31
when Eleanor Roosevelt did it,
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埃莉諾•羅斯福 (Eleanor Roosevelt) 這麼做時，
15:33
it led to the creation of 20 million vegetable gardens across the United States.
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她使得人們在全美各地 興建了2千萬蔬菜園
15:38
So the question I'd like to leave you with, really,
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所以，我留給你們的問題是，
15:40
is -- for all aspects of the things that your community needs
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為了社區繁榮，考慮到需求的各個面向
15:44
in order to thrive,
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的事情，
15:46
how can it be done in such a way
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如何用這種方式，轉變、回應
15:48
that drastically reduces its carbon emissions,
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大幅降低二氧化碳的排放
15:51
while also building resilience?
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又同時建立可恢復性？
15:53
Personally, I feel enormously grateful
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我非常感謝
15:55
to have lived through the age of cheap oil.
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我所經歷過的廉價石油時代
15:58
I've been astonishingly lucky, we've been astonishingly lucky.
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我曾非常幸運，我們曾非常幸運
16:02
But let us honor what it has bought us,
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讓我們為石油所提供的一切感到榮幸，
16:04
and move forward from this point.
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然而，從現在起要轉變這一點
16:06
Because if we cling to it, and continue to assume
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因為如果我們仍舊仰賴石油，繼續認定這樣的做法
16:08
that it can underpin our choices,
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足以支持我們的選擇的話，
16:11
the future that it presents to us is one which is really unmanageable.
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那麼，我們的未來將更難以駕馭
16:14
And by loving and leaving all that oil has done for us,
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由熱愛石油，到遠離石油
16:17
and that the Oil Age has done for us,
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石油年代給了我們的一切，
16:19
we are able to then begin the creation
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我們能夠開啟
16:21
of a world which is more resilient,
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一個更具有彈性恢複性、
16:24
more nourishing,
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更有活力的世界，
16:26
and in which, we find ourselves fitter, more skilled
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我們將發現人與人之間，更加健康，更加優秀，
16:29
and more connected to each other.
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並且更加緊密地彼此聯繫
16:31
Thank you very much.
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非常感謝
16:33
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rob Hopkins - Resilience leaderRob Hopkins is the founder of the Transition movement, a radically hopeful and community-driven approach to creating societies independent of fossil fuel.
Why you should listen
Rob Hopkins leads a vibrant new movement of towns and cities that utilize local cooperation and interdependence to shrink their ecological footprints. In the face of climate change he developed the concept of Transition Initiatives -- communities that produce their own goods and services, curb the need for transportation and take other measures to prepare for a post-oil future. While Transition shares certain principles with greenness and sustainability, it is a deeper vision concerned with re-imagining our future in a self-sufficient way and building resiliency.
Transforming theory to action, Hopkins is also the co-founder and a resident of the first Transition Initiative in the UK, in Totnes, Devon. As he refuses to fly, it is from his home in Totnes that he offers help to hundreds of similar communities that have sprung up around the world, in part through his blog, transitionculture.org.
Hopkins, who's trained in ecological design, wrote the principal work on the subject, Transition Handbook: From Oil Dependency to Local Resilience, a 12-step manual for a postcarbon future. Find notes and slides from his TEDTalk here >>
Rob Hopkins | Speaker | TED.com