ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bruce Schneier - Security expert
Bruce Schneier thinks hard about security -- as a computer security guru, and as a philosopher of the larger notion of making a safer world.

Why you should listen

Bruce Schneier is an internationally renowned security technologist and author. Described by the Economist as a "security guru," he is best known as a refreshingly candid and lucid security critic and commentator. When people want to know how security really works, they turn to Schneier.

His first bestseller, Applied Cryptography, explained how the arcane science of secret codes actually works, and was described by Wired as "the book the National Security Agency wanted never to be published." His book on computer and network security, Secrets and Lies, was called by Fortune "[a] jewel box of little surprises you can actually use." Beyond Fear tackles the problems of security from the small to the large: personal safety, crime, corporate security, national security. His current book, Schneier on Security, offers insight into everything from the risk of identity theft (vastly overrated) to the long-range security threat of unchecked presidential power and the surprisingly simple way to tamper-proof elections.

Schneier publishes a free monthly newsletter, Crypto-Gram, with over 150,000 readers. In its ten years of regular publication, Crypto-Gram has become one of the most widely read forums for free-wheeling discussions, pointed critiques and serious debate about security. As head curmudgeon at the table, Schneier explains, debunks and draws lessons from security stories that make the news.

More profile about the speaker
Bruce Schneier | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxPSU

Bruce Schneier: The security mirage

Bruce Schneier: 安全的錯覺

Filmed:
958,315 views

資訊安全專家Bruce Schneie指出一般人對於安全的感受與現實狀態常有所出入。在TEDxPSU 的演講中,他解釋為什麼我們花上數十億在處理新聞事件中風險,而那些在國內機場採用的措施,只不過是提供安全假象的安全劇院罷了。現實中常見的風險我們反而忽略了。他也說明我們該如何跳脫這樣的模式。
- Security expert
Bruce Schneier thinks hard about security -- as a computer security guru, and as a philosopher of the larger notion of making a safer world. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:15
So security安全 is two different不同 things:
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安全有兩種涵義
00:17
it's a feeling感覺, and it's a reality現實.
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感覺上的安全,和真實裡的安全
00:19
And they're different不同.
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二者並不相同
00:21
You could feel secure安全
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你可能感到安全
00:23
even if you're not.
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但現實情況是不安全的
00:25
And you can be secure安全
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而在真實的安全中
00:27
even if you don't feel it.
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卻感到不安全
00:29
Really, we have two separate分離 concepts概念
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確實,這兩種不同的概念
00:31
mapped映射 onto the same相同 word.
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被放在同一個字詞裡
00:33
And what I want to do in this talk
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這個演講的目的
00:35
is to split分裂 them apart距離 --
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就是將它們區分清楚 --
00:37
figuring盤算 out when they diverge偏離
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探討它們何時會分歧
00:39
and how they converge匯集.
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又在什麼狀況下合而為一
00:41
And language語言 is actually其實 a problem問題 here.
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語言本身是個問題
00:43
There aren't a lot of good words
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因為沒有足夠合適的字詞
00:45
for the concepts概念 we're going to talk about.
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來傳達我們要談到的概念
00:48
So if you look at security安全
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用經濟學的角度
00:50
from economic經濟 terms條款,
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來看安全
00:52
it's a trade-off交易.
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安全就是一項權衡的交易
00:54
Every一切 time you get some security安全,
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要得到安全
00:56
you're always trading貿易 off something.
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一定要先付出
00:58
Whether是否 this is a personal個人 decision決定 --
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無論是個人的決定-
01:00
whether是否 you're going to install安裝 a burglar竊賊 alarm報警 in your home --
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例如在家中安裝防盜警鈴
01:02
or a national國民 decision決定 -- where you're going to invade入侵 some foreign國外 country國家 --
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還是攸關國家安全的決策-例如侵略他國
01:05
you're going to trade貿易 off something,
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你總得有所付出
01:07
either money or time, convenience方便, capabilities功能,
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不是錢就是時間,或是便利性,能力
01:10
maybe fundamental基本的 liberties自由.
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也可能是基本自由
01:13
And the question to ask when you look at a security安全 anything
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面對安全議題,該問的
01:16
is not whether是否 this makes品牌 us safer更安全,
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不是「這樣做會更安全嗎」
01:19
but whether是否 it's worth價值 the trade-off交易.
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而是「值得付出這個代價嗎」
01:22
You've heard聽說 in the past過去 several一些 years年份,
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在過去這幾年,你們都聽過這種說法
01:24
the world世界 is safer更安全 because Saddam薩達姆 Hussein侯賽因 is not in power功率.
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我們的世界更安全是因為薩達姆.海珊垮台的緣故
01:26
That might威力 be true真正, but it's not terribly可怕 relevant相應.
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兩件事情也許都是真的,但兩者之間卻沒有關連
01:29
The question is, was it worth價值 it?
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該問的問題是,這樣做值得嗎?
01:32
And you can make your own擁有 decision決定,
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你可以做出自己的選擇
01:35
and then you'll你會 decide決定 whether是否 the invasion侵入 was worth價值 it.
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然後判斷是否值得為此入侵他國
01:37
That's how you think about security安全 --
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這就是以權衡的觀點
01:39
in terms條款 of the trade-off交易.
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來分析安全的方法
01:41
Now there's often經常 no right or wrong錯誤 here.
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決定沒有正確或錯誤之分
01:44
Some of us have a burglar竊賊 alarm報警 system系統 at home,
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有人在家裡安裝防盜警鈴系統
01:46
and some of us don't.
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有人不裝
01:48
And it'll它會 depend依靠 on where we live生活,
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這取決於我們居住的地點
01:50
whether是否 we live生活 alone單獨 or have a family家庭,
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是獨居或是與家人同住
01:52
how much cool stuff東東 we have,
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擁有多少值錢的物品
01:54
how much we're willing願意 to accept接受
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以及願意承擔多少竊盜損失
01:56
the risk風險 of theft盜竊.
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竊盜損失
01:58
In politics政治 also,
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政治上也一樣
02:00
there are different不同 opinions意見.
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各種意見分歧
02:02
A lot of times, these trade-offs權衡
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在權衡得失時
02:04
are about more than just security安全,
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通常要考慮的不只有安全因素
02:06
and I think that's really important重要.
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我認為這點很重要
02:08
Now people have a natural自然 intuition直覺
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人們對於抉擇
02:10
about these trade-offs權衡.
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有天生的直覺
02:12
We make them every一切 day --
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我們每天都在做決定
02:14
last night in my hotel旅館 room房間,
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像是昨晚在飯店
02:16
when I decided決定 to double-lock雙鎖 the door,
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我決定把房門上雙層鎖
02:18
or you in your car汽車 when you drove開車 here,
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或是當你在車裡決定開車來此地的時候
02:20
when we go eat lunch午餐
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或是我們吃午餐時
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and decide決定 the food's食品的 not poison and we'll eat it.
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先判斷食物沒有毒,才決定吃它
02:25
We make these trade-offs權衡 again and again,
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一天中有很多場合需要
02:27
multiple times a day.
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需要一再地做出決定
02:29
We often經常 won't慣於 even notice注意 them.
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大部分的時後,我們甚至不會留意到這點
02:31
They're just part部分 of being存在 alive; we all do it.
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因為這已是我們生存的一部份;我們都是這樣的
02:33
Every一切 species種類 does it.
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每個物種也都一樣
02:36
Imagine想像 a rabbit兔子 in a field領域, eating grass,
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試想原野中的一隻兔子,正在吃著草
02:38
and the rabbit's going to see a fox狐狸.
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這時牠見到一隻狐狸
02:41
That rabbit兔子 will make a security安全 trade-off交易:
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兔子需要做一個攸關安全的抉擇
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"Should I stay, or should I flee逃跑?"
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留下還是逃命?
02:45
And if you think about it,
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你認為
02:47
the rabbits that are good at making製造 that trade-off交易
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擅長做出正確決定的兔子
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will tend趨向 to live生活 and reproduce複製,
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比較容易存活且繁衍下去
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and the rabbits that are bad at it
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而做出錯誤決定的兔子
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will get eaten吃過 or starve餓死.
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不是被吃就是餓死了
02:56
So you'd think
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那麼
02:58
that us, as a successful成功 species種類 on the planet行星 --
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在地球上表現傑出優異的我們 --
03:01
you, me, everybody每個人 --
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包括你、我、以及每個人 --
03:03
would be really good at making製造 these trade-offs權衡.
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必定也擅長做出正確抉擇吧
03:06
Yet然而 it seems似乎, again and again,
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然而,事實似乎一再地證明
03:08
that we're hopelessly絕望地 bad at it.
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人類做出的決策糟糕無比
03:11
And I think that's a fundamentally從根本上 interesting有趣 question.
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這問題非常重要也相當有趣
03:14
I'll give you the short answer回答.
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我給你們一個簡短的解答
03:16
The answer回答 is, we respond響應 to the feeling感覺 of security安全
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答案是,因為人類是依據對安全的感覺做出判斷
03:18
and not the reality現實.
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而非依據真實的安全狀況
03:21
Now most of the time, that works作品.
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大部分的情況下,這麼做是正確的
03:25
Most of the time,
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因為大多數的時候
03:27
feeling感覺 and reality現實 are the same相同.
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感覺和真實是一致的
03:30
Certainly當然 that's true真正
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人類在史前時代
03:32
for most of human人的 prehistory史前.
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也是這樣的
03:35
We've我們已經 developed發達 this ability能力
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我們發展出這種能力
03:38
because it makes品牌 evolutionary發展的 sense.
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是因演化而來
03:40
One way to think of it
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有些看法認為
03:42
is that we're highly高度 optimized優化
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人類目前所擁有的最佳能力
03:44
for risk風險 decisions決定
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是為了配合
03:46
that are endemic流行 to living活的 in small family家庭 groups
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公元前100,000年在東非高地生活的小型家庭
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in the East African非洲人 highlands高地 in 100,000 B.C.
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他們生存所須具備的風險決策能力
03:52
2010 New York紐約, not so much.
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但已不太符合在2010年的紐約生存的條件了
03:56
Now there are several一些 biases偏見 in risk風險 perception知覺.
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如今,人類的風險感知能力出現偏差
03:59
A lot of good experiments實驗 in this.
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很多的實驗在探討這點
04:01
And you can see certain某些 biases偏見 that come up again and again.
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某些類型的偏差會反覆出現
04:04
So I'll give you four.
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我會說明其中的四種
04:06
We tend趨向 to exaggerate誇大 spectacular壯觀 and rare罕見 risks風險
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一,我們容易誇大驚心動魄且不常見的風險
04:09
and downplay淡化 common共同 risks風險 --
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卻低估常見的風險
04:11
so flying飛行 versus driving主動.
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例如搭飛機的風險對比陸地上駕駛的風險
04:14
The unknown未知 is perceived感知
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二,我們認為未知的事
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to be riskier風險較高 than the familiar.
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比起熟知的事更加危險
04:20
One example would be,
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其中一個例子是
04:22
people fear恐懼 kidnapping綁架 by strangers陌生人
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人們害怕被陌生人綁架
04:25
when the data數據 supports支持 kidnapping綁架 by relatives親戚們 is much more common共同.
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但資料顯示被親友綁架的案件更普遍
04:28
This is for children孩子.
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這裡指的是誘拐孩童
04:30
Third第三, personified人格化 risks風險
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三,我們認為具名化的事件
04:33
are perceived感知 to be greater更大 than anonymous匿名 risks風險 --
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比不具名事件的風險高
04:36
so Bin箱子 Laden拉登 is scarier可怕 because he has a name名稱.
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賓拉登很恐怖,正是因為他有個名字
04:39
And the fourth第四
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第四
04:41
is people underestimate低估 risks風險
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人們容易在可以控制狀況時
04:43
in situations情況 they do control控制
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低估風險
04:45
and overestimate估計過高 them in situations情況 they don't control控制.
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在不能控制的情境中高估風險
04:49
So once一旦 you take up skydiving跳傘 or smoking抽煙,
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所以,你開始特技跳傘或是抽菸後
04:52
you downplay淡化 the risks風險.
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就會忽略它的風險
04:54
If a risk風險 is thrust推力 upon you -- terrorism恐怖主義 was a good example --
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面對突如其來的危險-例如恐怖主義
04:57
you'll你會 overplay表演過火 it because you don't feel like it's in your control控制.
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人們會過度反應,是因為覺得無法控制狀況
05:02
There are a bunch of other of these biases偏見, these cognitive認知 biases偏見,
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類似的偏差還有很多,這些認知的偏差
05:05
that affect影響 our risk風險 decisions決定.
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影響我們的風險決策
05:08
There's the availability可用性 heuristic啟發式,
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所謂”可得性捷思”
05:10
which哪一個 basically基本上 means手段
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指的是
05:12
we estimate估計 the probability可能性 of something
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人在評估事件可能發生的機率時
05:15
by how easy簡單 it is to bring帶來 instances實例 of it to mind心神.
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是基於該事件在我們心目中容易聯想的程度
05:19
So you can imagine想像 how that works作品.
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像一下這是怎麼運作的
05:21
If you hear a lot about tiger attacks攻擊, there must必須 be a lot of tigers老虎 around.
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聽到多起老虎攻擊事件,就表示附近老虎很多
05:24
You don't hear about lion獅子 attacks攻擊, there aren't a lot of lions獅子 around.
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沒聽到獅子攻擊事件,就表示附近的獅子不多
05:27
This works作品 until直到 you invent發明 newspapers報紙.
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直到新聞報紙被發明前,這種判斷準則是成立的
05:30
Because what newspapers報紙 do
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因為報紙所做的
05:32
is they repeat重複 again and again
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就是一再地重複報導
05:34
rare罕見 risks風險.
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那些鮮少發生的危險
05:36
I tell people, if it's in the news新聞, don't worry擔心 about it.
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我要告訴大家,新聞中報導的事情,都無需煩憂
05:38
Because by definition定義,
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因為根據定義
05:40
news新聞 is something that almost幾乎 never happens發生.
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新聞就是不會發生的事件
05:43
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑)
05:45
When something is so common共同, it's no longer news新聞 --
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太常見的事件,就不會是新聞
05:48
car汽車 crashes崩潰, domestic國內 violence暴力 --
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像是車禍,家庭暴力
05:50
those are the risks風險 you worry擔心 about.
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這些才是我們該擔憂的
05:53
We're also a species種類 of storytellers講故事的人.
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人類是說故事的物種
05:55
We respond響應 to stories故事 more than data數據.
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比起數據,故事更容易影響我們
05:58
And there's some basic基本 innumeracy數學盲 going on.
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人類多少有點數字文盲,我的意思是
06:00
I mean, the joke玩笑 "One, Two, Three, Many許多" is kind of right.
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有個笑話說:人只會數一,二,三,很多.
06:03
We're really good at small numbers數字.
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人真的是這樣,我們對小數字很在行
06:06
One mango芒果, two mangoes芒果, three mangoes芒果,
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一個芒果,兩個芒果,三個芒果
06:08
10,000 mangoes芒果, 100,000 mangoes芒果 --
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一萬個芒果,十萬的芒果
06:10
it's still more mangoes芒果 you can eat before they rot腐爛.
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在它們腐壞前,還有許多芒果可吃
06:13
So one half, one quarter25美分硬幣, one fifth第五 -- we're good at that.
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½,¼, 1/5,這些數字我們也都很在行
06:16
One in a million百萬, one in a billion十億 --
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百萬分之一,十億分之一
06:18
they're both almost幾乎 never.
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這些被當作幾乎沒有
06:21
So we have trouble麻煩 with the risks風險
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所以,一旦面對不尋常的危機
06:23
that aren't very common共同.
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我們就不知該怎麼對付了
06:25
And what these cognitive認知 biases偏見 do
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認知的偏見
06:27
is they act法案 as filters過濾器 between之間 us and reality現實.
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如同濾鏡般,存在我們和真實之間
06:30
And the result結果
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於是
06:32
is that feeling感覺 and reality現實 get out of whack重打,
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感覺背離了真實
06:34
they get different不同.
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他們不再相同
06:37
Now you either have a feeling感覺 -- you feel more secure安全 than you are.
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並產生兩種可能狀況,一是擁有過多的安全感
06:40
There's a false sense of security安全.
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這是錯誤的安全感
06:42
Or the other way,
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另一種是,
06:44
and that's a false sense of insecurity不安全.
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錯誤的不安全感
06:46
I write a lot about "security安全 theater劇院,"
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我寫過很多關於「安全劇院」的文章
06:49
which哪一個 are products製品 that make people feel secure安全,
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它是一種可以讓人們感覺到安全的機制
06:52
but don't actually其實 do anything.
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但事實上並沒有改善實際的安全狀況
06:54
There's no real真實 word for stuff東東 that makes品牌 us secure安全,
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沒有確切的字眼來形容那種能改善真實安全
06:56
but doesn't make us feel secure安全.
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但無法增加安全感的機制
06:58
Maybe it's what the CIA's中情局 supposed應該 to do for us.
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CIA該為我們做的也許就是這個
07:03
So back to economics經濟學.
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回到經濟學
07:05
If economics經濟學, if the market市場, drives驅動器 security安全,
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如果經濟,或者市場,是驅動安全的力量
07:09
and if people make trade-offs權衡
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而人們是依據對安全的感覺
07:11
based基於 on the feeling感覺 of security安全,
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來進行交易
07:14
then the smart聰明 thing for companies公司 to do
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那麼,公司想要促進經濟誘因的
07:16
for the economic經濟 incentives獎勵
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最佳策略
07:18
are to make people feel secure安全.
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就是讓人們感覺到安全
07:21
And there are two ways方法 to do this.
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有兩種方式可以達成這個目的
07:24
One, you can make people actually其實 secure安全
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一是讓人們在真實中更安全
07:26
and hope希望 they notice注意.
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並且期盼他們有留意到這點
07:28
Or two, you can make people just feel secure安全
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或者你也可以讓人們只是感覺更安全
07:31
and hope希望 they don't notice注意.
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但你要期望他們不會發現到真相
07:35
So what makes品牌 people notice注意?
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究竟什麼會引起人們關注
07:38
Well a couple一對 of things:
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舉例來說
07:40
understanding理解 of the security安全,
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對安全的認知程度
07:42
of the risks風險, the threats威脅,
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對風險及威脅的認知
07:44
the countermeasures對策, how they work.
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以及了解如何採取對策等
07:47
But if you know stuff東東,
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知道得更多
07:49
you're more likely容易 to have your feelings情懷 match比賽 reality現實.
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感覺和真實就愈趨一致
07:52
Enough足夠 real真實 world世界 examples例子 helps幫助.
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真實世界中有很多這方面的例子
07:55
Now we all know the crime犯罪 rate in our neighborhood鄰里,
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我們對居家附近區域的犯罪率很明瞭
07:58
because we live生活 there, and we get a feeling感覺 about it
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因為我們住在這裡,所以我們對治安的感覺
08:01
that basically基本上 matches火柴 reality現實.
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基本上符合真實狀況
08:04
Security安全 theater's戲劇的 exposed裸露
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安全劇院所揭露的
08:07
when it's obvious明顯 that it's not working加工 properly正確.
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是真實與感覺明顯背離的情況
08:10
Okay, so what makes品牌 people not notice注意?
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那麼,又是什麼讓人們忽略安全?
08:14
Well, a poor較差的 understanding理解.
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認知不足
08:16
If you don't understand理解 the risks風險, you don't understand理解 the costs成本,
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不了解風險,不了解代價
08:19
you're likely容易 to get the trade-off交易 wrong錯誤,
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就愈可能做出錯誤的安全策略
08:21
and your feeling感覺 doesn't match比賽 reality現實.
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並且無法感覺真實情況
08:24
Not enough足夠 examples例子.
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相關的例子不多
08:26
There's an inherent固有 problem問題
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對於不常發生的事件
08:28
with low probability可能性 events事件.
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這是本質上存在的問題
08:30
If, for example,
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舉例來說
08:32
terrorism恐怖主義 almost幾乎 never happens發生,
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如果恐怖主義幾乎是不曾發生的
08:34
it's really hard to judge法官
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那麼要判斷反恐措施的功效
08:36
the efficacy功效 of counter-terrorist反恐 measures措施.
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就難上加難了
08:40
This is why you keep sacrificing犧牲 virgins處女,
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這就是為什麼人們不斷地奉獻處女祭祀
08:43
and why your unicorn獨角獸 defenses防禦 are working加工 just great.
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或是將過錯推諉給編造出來的「他」,都很有用
08:46
There aren't enough足夠 examples例子 of failures故障.
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因為災難本來就不多
08:50
Also, feelings情懷 that are clouding混濁 the issues問題 --
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加上心理作用作祟
08:53
the cognitive認知 biases偏見 I talked about earlier,
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就是我剛剛所說的認知偏差
08:55
fears恐懼, folk民間 beliefs信仰,
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恐懼,民間信仰
08:58
basically基本上 an inadequate不足 model模型 of reality現實.
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這些基本上都無法適當地反映真實
09:02
So let me complicate複雜 things.
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讓我把事情弄得再複雜些
09:05
I have feeling感覺 and reality現實.
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除了感覺,以及真實的世界
09:07
I want to add a third第三 element元件. I want to add model模型.
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我想再加上第三個元素-模型
09:10
Feeling感覺 and model模型 in our head,
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感覺和模型存在腦海裡
09:12
reality現實 is the outside world世界.
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而真實存在於外在
09:14
It doesn't change更改; it's real真實.
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它不會變,它是真實的
09:17
So feeling感覺 is based基於 on our intuition直覺.
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感覺是基於直覺
09:19
Model模型 is based基於 on reason原因.
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模型是基於理智
09:21
That's basically基本上 the difference區別.
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這是兩者最基本的差異
09:24
In a primitive原始 and simple簡單 world世界,
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在遠古的簡單世界裡
09:26
there's really no reason原因 for a model模型
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模型沒有存在的意義
09:29
because feeling感覺 is close to reality現實.
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因為感覺和真實非常的接近
09:32
You don't need a model模型.
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你不需要模型
09:34
But in a modern現代 and complex複雜 world世界,
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但在現代複雜的社會
09:36
you need models楷模
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你需要模型
09:38
to understand理解 a lot of the risks風險 we face面對.
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來解析我們面對的風險
09:42
There's no feeling感覺 about germs病菌.
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我們無法用感覺來認識細菌
09:44
You need a model模型 to understand理解 them.
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所以需要模型
09:47
So this model模型
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模型可以
09:49
is an intelligent智能 representation表示 of reality現實.
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清楚地呈現真實
09:52
It's, of course課程, limited有限 by science科學,
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然而,模型受限於科學
09:55
by technology技術.
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與技術
09:57
We couldn't不能 have a germ病菌 theory理論 of disease疾病
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在顯微鏡被發明來觀測細菌以前
10:00
before we invented發明 the microscope顯微鏡 to see them.
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疾病的細菌理論就不可能存在
10:04
It's limited有限 by our cognitive認知 biases偏見.
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模型也受限於我們認知的偏差
10:07
But it has the ability能力
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但它的能力
10:09
to override覆蓋 our feelings情懷.
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足以駕馭我們的感覺
10:11
Where do we get these models楷模? We get them from others其他.
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模型來自何處? 通常是從他人而來
10:14
We get them from religion宗教, from culture文化,
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可能是宗教,文化
10:17
teachers教師, elders長老.
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老師或是長老
10:19
A couple一對 years年份 ago,
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數年前
10:21
I was in South Africa非洲 on safari蘋果瀏覽器.
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我到南非進行狩獵之旅
10:23
The tracker跟踪器 I was with grew成長 up in Kruger克魯格 National國民 Park公園.
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我的追蹤嚮導是在克魯格國家公園長大的
10:26
He had some very complex複雜 models楷模 of how to survive生存.
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他的求生模型非常的複雜
10:29
And it depended依賴 on if you were attacked襲擊
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遭受到不同動物攻擊有不同的模型
10:31
by a lion獅子 or a leopard or a rhino犀牛 or an elephant --
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像是獅子、美洲豹、犀牛或是大象
10:33
and when you had to run away, and when you couldn't不能 run away, and when you had to climb a tree --
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依照不同的情況:在何時必須逃跑,或是爬樹
10:36
when you could never climb a tree.
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或者無法爬樹,採用的模型也不同
10:38
I would have died死亡 in a day,
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我在那裡可能活不過一天
10:41
but he was born天生 there,
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但他生於此
10:43
and he understood了解 how to survive生存.
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他了解此地求生之道
10:45
I was born天生 in New York紐約 City.
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我生於紐約市
10:47
I could have taken採取 him to New York紐約, and he would have died死亡 in a day.
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如果我帶他到紐約,那他可能也活不過一天吧
10:50
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
10:52
Because we had different不同 models楷模
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因為我們有不同的生存模型
10:54
based基於 on our different不同 experiences經驗.
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這來自我們不同的經驗
10:58
Models楷模 can come from the media媒體,
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模型來自媒體
11:00
from our elected當選 officials官員.
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也來自我們選出的官員
11:03
Think of models楷模 of terrorism恐怖主義,
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回想一下恐怖攻擊
11:06
child兒童 kidnapping綁架,
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幼童綁票
11:09
airline航空公司 safety安全, car汽車 safety安全.
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飛行安全以及汽車安全這些模型
11:11
Models楷模 can come from industry行業.
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模型也來自工業界
11:14
The two I'm following以下 are surveillance監控 cameras相機,
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我最近關注在監控攝影機
11:16
IDID cards,
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和身分證這兩項議題
11:18
quite相當 a lot of our computer電腦 security安全 models楷模 come from there.
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很多資訊安全的模型與此有關
11:21
A lot of models楷模 come from science科學.
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很多模型來自科學
11:24
Health健康 models楷模 are a great example.
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和健康相關的模型是很好的例子
11:26
Think of cancer癌症, of bird flu流感, swine flu流感, SARSSARS.
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例如癌症,禽流感,豬流感以及SARS
11:29
All of our feelings情懷 of security安全
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我們對這些疾病
11:32
about those diseases疾病
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產生的危機感
11:34
come from models楷模
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其實是來自於模型
11:36
given特定 to us, really, by science科學 filtered過濾 through通過 the media媒體.
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模型由科學家提供,經過媒體傳達給我們
11:40
So models楷模 can change更改.
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模型是變動的
11:43
Models楷模 are not static靜態的.
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不是固定的
11:45
As we become成為 more comfortable自在 in our environments環境,
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當我們對愈適應環境時
11:48
our model模型 can move移動 closer接近 to our feelings情懷.
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模型會愈趨近我們的感覺
11:53
So an example might威力 be,
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另一個的例子可能是這樣的
11:55
if you go back 100 years年份 ago
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假設你回到100年前
11:57
when electricity電力 was first becoming變得 common共同,
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當時電力剛開始普及
12:00
there were a lot of fears恐懼 about it.
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人們對電力存有相當多的恐懼
12:02
I mean, there were people who were afraid害怕 to push doorbells門鈴,
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像是,有人害怕壓門鈴
12:04
because there was electricity電力 in there, and that was dangerous危險.
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因為那裡有電,非常危險
12:07
For us, we're very facile靈巧的 around electricity電力.
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現在的我們對電力已相當熟悉了
12:10
We change更改 light bulbs燈泡
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像是換燈泡這種事情
12:12
without even thinking思維 about it.
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我們不會去想它的安全問題
12:14
Our model模型 of security安全 around electricity電力
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我們對電力的安全認知模型
12:18
is something we were born天生 into.
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幾乎是與生俱來的
12:21
It hasn't有沒有 changed as we were growing生長 up.
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長大後也沒變過
12:24
And we're good at it.
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我們很擅長運用電力
12:27
Or think of the risks風險
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你也可以想想看
12:29
on the Internet互聯網 across橫過 generations --
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不同世代對網際網路的風險評估
12:31
how your parents父母 approach途徑 Internet互聯網 security安全,
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你的父母親是怎麼看待網路安全的
12:33
versus how you do,
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對照一下你自己的做法
12:35
versus how our kids孩子 will.
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再對照一下我們的下一代,他們將會如何做
12:38
Models楷模 eventually終於 fade褪色 into the background背景.
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模型最終會融到我們的生活背景
12:42
Intuitive直觀的 is just another另一個 word for familiar.
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直覺其實是來自於熟悉
12:45
So as your model模型 is close to reality現實,
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當模型與真實接近時
12:47
and it converges收斂 with feelings情懷,
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並且與感覺合而為一
12:49
you often經常 don't know it's there.
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此時,你感覺不到它的存在
12:52
So a nice不錯 example of this
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有個很好的例子
12:54
came來了 from last year and swine flu流感.
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就是去年發生的豬流感
12:57
When swine flu流感 first appeared出現,
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豬流感剛開始時
12:59
the initial初始 news新聞 caused造成 a lot of overreaction過度反應.
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最初的報導引起許多過度恐慌
13:03
Now it had a name名稱,
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接著,它有正式名稱了
13:05
which哪一個 made製作 it scarier可怕 than the regular定期 flu流感,
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這使得它比一般感冒更恐怖
13:07
even though雖然 it was more deadly致命.
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即使一般感冒致死率更高
13:09
And people thought doctors醫生 should be able能夠 to deal合同 with it.
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人們原本認為醫生應該可以處理豬流感
13:13
So there was that feeling感覺 of lack缺乏 of control控制.
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這時,我們覺得事情失控了
13:15
And those two things
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由於以上兩項因素
13:17
made製作 the risk風險 more than it was.
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風險顯得比實際狀況更高
13:19
As the novelty新奇 wore穿著 off, the months個月 went by,
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數個月過後,人們對新事物的陌生恐懼逐漸淡去
13:22
there was some amount of tolerance公差,
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接納度提升
13:24
people got used to it.
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也漸漸習慣了
13:26
There was no new data數據, but there was less fear恐懼.
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雖然沒有新進展,但是恐懼減少了
13:29
By autumn秋季,
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在秋天來臨前
13:31
people thought
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人們相信
13:33
the doctors醫生 should have solved解決了 this already已經.
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醫生已經解決問題了
13:35
And there's kind of a bifurcation分枝 --
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這時出現了分歧
13:37
people had to choose選擇
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人們必須
13:39
between之間 fear恐懼 and acceptance驗收 --
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在恐懼或是接受中做出選擇
13:43
actually其實 fear恐懼 and indifference漠不關心 --
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更正確的說,是恐懼和忽視
13:45
they kind of chose選擇 suspicion懷疑.
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最後,人們選擇了懷疑
13:48
And when the vaccine疫苗 appeared出現 last winter冬季,
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當疫苗在去年冬天上市時
13:51
there were a lot of people -- a surprising奇怪 number --
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很多人 -- 令人驚訝的數目
13:54
who refused拒絕 to get it --
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反而拒絕疫苗接種
13:58
as a nice不錯 example
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這個例子很清楚指出
14:00
of how people's人們 feelings情懷 of security安全 change更改, how their model模型 changes變化,
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人們的安全感是如何改變,模型又是如何改變
14:03
sort分類 of wildly瘋狂
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在沒有新資訊
14:05
with no new information信息,
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也沒有新來源時
14:07
with no new input輸入.
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也會有巨大的改變
14:09
This kind of thing happens發生 a lot.
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這樣的事情其實常常發生
14:12
I'm going to give one more complication並發症.
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現在,我要再加上一個複雜的因素
14:15
We have feeling感覺, model模型, reality現實.
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除了感覺,模型,真實三項因素
14:18
I have a very relativistic相對論 view視圖 of security安全.
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我認為安全是相對的
14:20
I think it depends依靠 on the observer觀察者.
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因人而異
14:23
And most security安全 decisions決定
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多數的安全決策
14:25
have a variety品種 of people involved參與.
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牽扯到許多不同類型的人
14:29
And stakeholders利益相關者
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有利益牽扯的
14:31
with specific具體 trade-offs權衡
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利害關係人
14:34
will try to influence影響 the decision決定.
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會試圖去影響決定
14:36
And I call that their agenda議程.
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我稱之為關係人的「議程規畫表」
14:38
And you see agenda議程 --
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這個規畫表
14:40
this is marketing營銷, this is politics政治 --
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是一種行銷,也是政治
14:43
trying to convince說服 you to have one model模型 versus another另一個,
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它企圖影響你信任某種模型而放棄另一個
14:46
trying to convince說服 you to ignore忽視 a model模型
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企圖影響去忽視模型
14:48
and trust相信 your feelings情懷,
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只信任你的感覺
14:51
marginalizing邊緣化 people with models楷模 you don't like.
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並且邊緣化那些採用你不喜歡的模型的人
14:54
This is not uncommon罕見.
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這並非不尋常
14:57
An example, a great example, is the risk風險 of smoking抽煙.
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一個例子,很好的例子,就是關於抽菸的危害
15:01
In the history歷史 of the past過去 50 years年份, the smoking抽煙 risk風險
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過去50 年的歷史,抽菸風險的變化
15:04
shows節目 how a model模型 changes變化,
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顯示出模型是如何改變的
15:06
and it also shows節目 how an industry行業 fights打架 against反對
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也顯示出業界如何對付
15:09
a model模型 it doesn't like.
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它們不喜歡的模型
15:11
Compare比較 that to the secondhand二手 smoke抽煙 debate辯論 --
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相對起來,關於二手煙的討論
15:14
probably大概 about 20 years年份 behind背後.
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晚了約20年
15:17
Think about seat座位 belts皮帶.
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再看看安全帶
15:19
When I was a kid孩子, no one wore穿著 a seat座位 belt.
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我小的時後,沒有人繫安全帶
15:21
Nowadays如今, no kid孩子 will let you drive駕駛
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而現今,如果不繫上安全帶
15:23
if you're not wearing穿著 a seat座位 belt.
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連小孩都會阻止你開車
15:26
Compare比較 that to the airbag安全氣囊 debate辯論 --
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相對起來,安全氣囊的討論
15:28
probably大概 about 30 years年份 behind背後.
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落後了約三十年
15:31
All examples例子 of models楷模 changing改變.
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所有的模型都會改變
15:36
What we learn學習 is that changing改變 models楷模 is hard.
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我們目前知道的是,模型的改變不容易
15:39
Models楷模 are hard to dislodge打跑.
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模型也很難被移走
15:41
If they equal等於 your feelings情懷,
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當它們和感覺完全相同時
15:43
you don't even know you have a model模型.
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你甚至不知道模型的存在
15:46
And there's another另一個 cognitive認知 bias偏壓
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另一種認知偏見
15:48
I'll call confirmation確認 bias偏壓,
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我認為是肯證偏見
15:50
where we tend趨向 to accept接受 data數據
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是指人們傾向於接受
15:53
that confirms確認 our beliefs信仰
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和自己立場相符的訊息
15:55
and reject拒絕 data數據 that contradicts相矛盾 our beliefs信仰.
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而拒絕與我們立場相左的資訊
15:59
So evidence證據 against反對 our model模型,
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所以和我們模型不符的證據
16:01
we're likely容易 to ignore忽視, even if it's compelling引人注目.
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我們也會忽略它,不管它多麼的讓人信服
16:04
It has to get very compelling引人注目 before we'll pay工資 attention注意.
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它必須強烈到無法忽視,才能引起我們的注意
16:08
New models楷模 that extend延伸 long periods of time are hard.
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跨越長時間的新模型是難以接受的
16:10
Global全球 warming變暖 is a great example.
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全球暖化的議題就是個例子
16:12
We're terrible可怕
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我們很難接受
16:14
at models楷模 that span跨度 80 years年份.
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一個長達八十年之久的模型
16:16
We can do to the next下一個 harvest收成.
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我們可以應付下一個收割季來臨前的問題
16:18
We can often經常 do until直到 our kids孩子 grow增長 up.
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也可以應付小孩長大前的事情
16:21
But 80 years年份, we're just not good at.
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但是八十年耶,我們不知道怎麼辦了
16:24
So it's a very hard model模型 to accept接受.
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所以,接受這種模型並不容易
16:27
We can have both models楷模 in our head simultaneously同時,
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兩種模型可能並存在大腦中
16:31
right, that kind of problem問題
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就像對某些事情
16:34
where we're holding保持 both beliefs信仰 together一起,
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我們會有兩種信念
16:37
right, the cognitive認知 dissonance不和諧.
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這是種認知失調
16:39
Eventually終於,
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但最後
16:41
the new model模型 will replace更換 the old model模型.
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舊模型終將被新模型取代
16:44
Strong強大 feelings情懷 can create創建 a model模型.
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強烈的感覺可以產生模型
16:47
September九月 11th created創建 a security安全 model模型
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九一一事件在很多人的心裡
16:50
in a lot of people's人們 heads.
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建立新的安全模型
16:52
Also, personal個人 experiences經驗 with crime犯罪 can do it,
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還有,個人經歷的犯罪事件
16:55
personal個人 health健康 scare,
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個人的健康危機
16:57
a health健康 scare in the news新聞.
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以及新聞報導中的健康問題都會產生新模型
16:59
You'll你會 see these called flashbulb鎂光燈 events事件
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精神病專家稱之為
17:01
by psychiatrists精神科醫生.
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閃光燈效應
17:03
They can create創建 a model模型 instantaneously瞬間,
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這些事件可以立即產生新模型
17:06
because they're very emotive感情的.
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因為他們引起強烈的情緒
17:09
So in the technological技術性 world世界,
400
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在科技的世界裡
17:11
we don't have experience經驗
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我們沒有經驗
17:13
to judge法官 models楷模.
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足以判斷模型
17:15
And we rely依靠 on others其他. We rely依靠 on proxies代理.
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所以,我們仰賴他人,我們仰賴代理人
17:17
I mean, this works作品 as long as it's to correct正確 others其他.
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只要代理人能夠指正錯誤,這樣做是可行的。
17:21
We rely依靠 on government政府 agencies機構
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我們依賴政府機關
17:23
to tell us what pharmaceuticals藥品 are safe安全.
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來告訴我們藥物是安全的
17:28
I flew here yesterday昨天.
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我昨天搭機來此地
17:30
I didn't check the airplane飛機.
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我沒有檢查飛機
17:32
I relied on some other group
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是因為另一群人
17:34
to determine確定 whether是否 my plane平面 was safe安全 to fly.
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會先檢查飛機是否安全
17:37
We're here, none沒有 of us fear恐懼 the roof屋頂 is going to collapse坍方 on us,
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我們在這裡,沒有人擔心屋頂會垮下來
17:40
not because we checked檢查,
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不是因為我們檢查過了
17:43
but because we're pretty漂亮 sure
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而是我們非常確定
17:45
the building建造 codes代碼 here are good.
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建築法規很建全
17:48
It's a model模型 we just accept接受
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基於這樣的信念
17:50
pretty漂亮 much by faith信仰.
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我們接受這個模型
17:52
And that's okay.
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它也運作得很好
17:57
Now, what we want
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我們希望
17:59
is people to get familiar enough足夠
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人們能去了解
18:01
with better models楷模 --
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更好的模型
18:03
have it reflected反射的 in their feelings情懷 --
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真正反應出感覺的模型
18:05
to allow允許 them to make security安全 trade-offs權衡.
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幫助人們可以在安全上做出正確的抉擇
18:09
Now when these go out of whack重打,
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當模型與感覺不一致時
18:11
you have two options選項.
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你有兩個選擇
18:13
One, you can fix固定 people's人們 feelings情懷,
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其一是,先修正個人的感覺
18:15
directly appeal上訴 to feelings情懷.
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然後直接針對感覺下判斷
18:17
It's manipulation操作, but it can work.
427
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雖然動了點手腳,但是行的通
18:20
The second第二, more honest誠實 way
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第二種方式比較誠實
18:22
is to actually其實 fix固定 the model模型.
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就是去修正模型
18:26
Change更改 happens發生 slowly慢慢地.
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改變是很緩慢的
18:28
The smoking抽煙 debate辯論 took 40 years年份,
431
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抽菸的辯論持續了40年
18:31
and that was an easy簡單 one.
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這還算是簡單的
18:34
Some of this stuff東東 is hard.
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有些改變很難
18:36
I mean really though雖然,
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相當困難
18:38
information信息 seems似乎 like our best最好 hope希望.
435
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要靠絕對的資訊才有希望能改變
18:40
And I lied說謊.
436
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我剛撒了一個謊
18:42
Remember記得 I said feeling感覺, model模型, reality現實;
437
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在說到感覺、模型和真實三個因素時
18:44
I said reality現實 doesn't change更改. It actually其實 does.
438
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我說,真實是不會變的,事實上它會
18:47
We live生活 in a technological技術性 world世界;
439
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我們處在科技的世界
18:49
reality現實 changes變化 all the time.
440
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所謂的真實一直都在變
18:52
So we might威力 have -- for the first time in our species種類 --
441
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第一次,我們人類這個物種發生這種現象
18:55
feeling感覺 chases追逐 model模型, model模型 chases追逐 reality現實, reality's現實的 moving移動 --
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感覺追逐模型,模型追逐真實,而真實不停的跑
18:58
they might威力 never catch抓住 up.
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它們可能永遠也追不上
19:02
We don't know.
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我們不知道結果
19:04
But in the long-term長期,
445
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但是,就長期來說
19:06
both feeling感覺 and reality現實 are important重要.
446
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感覺和真實都是重要的
19:09
And I want to close with two quick stories故事 to illustrate說明 this.
447
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我以兩個簡短的故事證明這點,並以此做為總結
19:12
1982 -- I don't know if people will remember記得 this --
448
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1982 年,不知道你們還記不記得
19:14
there was a short epidemic疫情
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當時美國有個很短暫但散播很廣的
19:17
of Tylenol泰諾 poisonings中毒 in the United聯合的 States狀態.
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泰諾(Thlenol)止痛藥中毒事件
19:19
It's a horrific可怕的 story故事. Someone有人 took a bottle瓶子 of Tylenol泰諾,
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事情很可怕.有人取走一瓶的泰諾
19:22
put poison in it, closed關閉 it up, put it back on the shelf.
452
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在裡面下毒,關上盒蓋,又放回架上販賣
19:25
Someone有人 else其他 bought it and died死亡.
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其他人買下這瓶藥後,中毒死亡
19:27
This terrified people.
454
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事情嚇壞了群眾
19:29
There were a couple一對 of copycat山寨 attacks攻擊.
455
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當時還有數起模仿這個手法的攻擊事件
19:31
There wasn't any real真實 risk風險, but people were scared害怕.
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雖然沒有真正的危險,但是民眾嚇壞了
19:34
And this is how
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這事件驅使
19:36
the tamper-proof防篡改 drug藥物 industry行業 was invented發明.
458
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藥品業界發明防盜安全裝置
19:38
Those tamper-proof防篡改 caps帽子, that came來了 from this.
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那些防盜安全瓶蓋就是這樣來的
19:40
It's complete完成 security安全 theater劇院.
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這就是安全劇場
19:42
As a homework家庭作業 assignment分配, think of 10 ways方法 to get around it.
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這是你們的作業-想出十個破解安全瓶蓋的方法
19:44
I'll give you one, a syringe注射器.
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我先給個答案,針筒
19:47
But it made製作 people feel better.
463
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但是安全瓶蓋確實讓人們感覺比較安全
19:50
It made製作 their feeling感覺 of security安全
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這使得人們對安全的感覺
19:52
more match比賽 the reality現實.
465
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和實際情況更符合
19:54
Last story故事, a few少數 years年份 ago, a friend朋友 of mine gave birth分娩.
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最後一個故事,數年前,我的一個朋友生小孩
19:57
I visit訪問 her in the hospital醫院.
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我去醫院看她
19:59
It turns out when a baby's寶寶 born天生 now,
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才發現現在小孩出生時
20:01
they put an RFIDRFID bracelet手鐲 on the baby寶寶,
469
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要繫上RFID(無線射頻辨識系統) 手環
20:03
put a corresponding相應 one on the mother母親,
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母親也配戴對應的RFID
20:05
so if anyone任何人 other than the mother母親 takes the baby寶寶 out of the maternity母道 ward病房,
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所以,除了母親以外的人抱小孩離開產房
20:07
an alarm報警 goes off.
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警報就會響起
20:09
I said, "Well, that's kind of neat整齊.
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我說:「哇!這真棒
20:11
I wonder奇蹟 how rampant猖獗 baby寶寶 snatching is
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那些猖獗的嬰兒綁架犯
20:13
out of hospitals醫院."
475
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怎麼可能走的出醫院」
20:15
I go home, I look it up.
476
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回到家,我查了一下資料
20:17
It basically基本上 never happens發生.
477
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發現嬰兒綁架幾乎不曾發生
20:19
But if you think about it,
478
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你想想看
20:21
if you are a hospital醫院,
479
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如果你是個醫務人員
20:23
and you need to take a baby寶寶 away from its mother母親,
480
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你需要從母親的手中把嬰兒
20:25
out of the room房間 to run some tests測試,
481
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2000
帶出房間去進行檢驗
20:27
you better have some good security安全 theater劇院,
482
1212000
2000
那你最好有些絕佳的安全策略
20:29
or she's going to rip安息 your arm off.
483
1214000
2000
不然你的手臂一定會被嬰兒的母親扭斷
20:31
(Laughter笑聲)
484
1216000
2000
(笑聲)
20:33
So it's important重要 for us,
485
1218000
2000
這對我們很重要
20:35
those of us who design設計 security安全,
486
1220000
2000
有些人從事安全設計
20:37
who look at security安全 policy政策,
487
1222000
3000
有人審視安全政策
20:40
or even look at public上市 policy政策
488
1225000
2000
或是研究
20:42
in ways方法 that affect影響 security安全.
489
1227000
2000
會影響安全的公共政策
20:44
It's not just reality現實; it's feeling感覺 and reality現實.
490
1229000
3000
要考慮的不是只有真實,而是感覺與真實兩者
20:47
What's important重要
491
1232000
2000
重要的是
20:49
is that they be about the same相同.
492
1234000
2000
這兩者要盡可能相同
20:51
It's important重要 that, if our feelings情懷 match比賽 reality現實,
493
1236000
2000
這是重要的,當我們的感覺和真實更一致
20:53
we make better security安全 trade-offs權衡.
494
1238000
2000
才能在安全議題上做出更好的選擇
20:55
Thank you.
495
1240000
2000
謝謝
20:57
(Applause掌聲)
496
1242000
2000
(鼓掌)
Translated by wentzu chen
Reviewed by Diwen Mueller

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bruce Schneier - Security expert
Bruce Schneier thinks hard about security -- as a computer security guru, and as a philosopher of the larger notion of making a safer world.

Why you should listen

Bruce Schneier is an internationally renowned security technologist and author. Described by the Economist as a "security guru," he is best known as a refreshingly candid and lucid security critic and commentator. When people want to know how security really works, they turn to Schneier.

His first bestseller, Applied Cryptography, explained how the arcane science of secret codes actually works, and was described by Wired as "the book the National Security Agency wanted never to be published." His book on computer and network security, Secrets and Lies, was called by Fortune "[a] jewel box of little surprises you can actually use." Beyond Fear tackles the problems of security from the small to the large: personal safety, crime, corporate security, national security. His current book, Schneier on Security, offers insight into everything from the risk of identity theft (vastly overrated) to the long-range security threat of unchecked presidential power and the surprisingly simple way to tamper-proof elections.

Schneier publishes a free monthly newsletter, Crypto-Gram, with over 150,000 readers. In its ten years of regular publication, Crypto-Gram has become one of the most widely read forums for free-wheeling discussions, pointed critiques and serious debate about security. As head curmudgeon at the table, Schneier explains, debunks and draws lessons from security stories that make the news.

More profile about the speaker
Bruce Schneier | Speaker | TED.com

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