We the Future
Johan Rockström: 5 transformational policies for a prosperous and sustainable world
約翰．洛克史東: 五項轉型政策，來一個建立繁榮永續的世界
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這場演說談的是我們要如何建立一個穩定健全的未來，且不要破壞地球。永續專家約翰．洛克史東讓「地球3號」模型初次亮相——它是一個新的方法論，結合了聯合國的永續發展目標和 9 項地球限度，超越這些限度，地球的維生系統就會變得不穩定。來進一步了解有哪 5 項轉型政策可以協助我們做到廣泛且繁榮的世界發展，同時還能讓地球維持穩定和具有恢復力。
Johan Rockstrom - Sustainability expert
Johan Rockström works to redefine sustainable development, and figure out what needs to happen. Full bio
Johan Rockström works to redefine sustainable development, and figure out what needs to happen. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
In 2015, we saw two fantastic,
hopeful breakthroughs for humanity.
hopeful breakthroughs for humanity.
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人類在 2015 年有 2 項
很棒且很有希望的突破。
很棒且很有希望的突破。
00:17
First, the adoption of
the Sustainable Development Goals,
the Sustainable Development Goals,
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第一，採用了永續發展目標，
00:21
the collective, universal
plan for humanity
plan for humanity
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它是人類的集體、全體計畫，
00:24
to eradicate hunger,
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旨在根絕饑荒，
00:25
[promote] good economic
development and good health,
development and good health,
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推動好的經濟發展以及健康的好處，
是在全球環境目標之下的計畫。
00:27
within global environmental targets.
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00:29
Secondly, after 21 years of negotiations,
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第二，在 21 年的協商之後，
00:32
we adopted the legally binding
Paris Agreement,
Paris Agreement,
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我們採用了有法律約束力的巴黎協議，
00:35
all nations in the world keeping
global warming under two degrees Celsius,
global warming under two degrees Celsius,
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全世界的所有國家要讓全球暖化
維持在攝氏 2 度之內，
維持在攝氏 2 度之內，
目標是攝氏 1.5 度。
00:39
aiming at 1.5 degrees Celsius.
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00:41
Today, three years down the line,
we're still in the hand-waving business.
we're still in the hand-waving business.
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現今，已經 3 年過去了，
我們還談連邊都碰不著。
00:47
Now, I think it's time
to step back one step
to step back one step
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我認為，現在是該
退一步的時候了，
退一步的時候了，
00:50
and recognize that I wonder if the world
leaders really knew what they signed
leaders really knew what they signed
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該承認我很納悶三年前
在聯合國大會上，
在聯合國大會上，
世界領導人們是否知道
自己簽了什麼。
自己簽了什麼。
00:54
at the General Assembly three years ago.
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00:57
These are universal, aspirational,
transformational goals
transformational goals
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這些是全體的、
有抱負的、轉型的目標，
有抱負的、轉型的目標，
01:00
for inclusive, prosperous humanity
on a stable earth system.
on a stable earth system.
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在穩定的地球系統上，
讓人類能夠共榮。
讓人類能夠共榮。
01:05
But there are underlying problems.
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但這背後有些問題。
01:07
We have inherent contradictions
between these goals,
between these goals,
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在這些目標之間，
本來就有所矛盾，
本來就有所矛盾，
01:11
where there's the risk of pursuing
one favored goal at the expense of others.
one favored goal at the expense of others.
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追求一個目標時，
代價可能會是另一個目標。
代價可能會是另一個目標。
01:16
Take, for example, Goal 8,
on decent work and economic growth.
on decent work and economic growth.
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比如，以第 8 項目標為例：
尊嚴工作帶動經濟成長。
尊嚴工作帶動經濟成長。
01:19
If we continue doing that
by exploiting natural resources
by exploiting natural resources
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若我們持續這麼做的方式
是使用自然資源和燃燒化石燃料，
是使用自然資源和燃燒化石燃料，
01:22
and burning fossil fuels,
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01:23
it will be impossible to reach Goal 13.
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就不可能達成第 13 項目標。
01:26
Three years down the line,
we simply must admit
we simply must admit
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已經過了 3 年，我們必須要承認，
01:29
we're seeing limited action
to really, really address this
to really, really address this
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我們很少有看到任何行動
真正將這個議題
真正將這個議題
01:33
as an inclusive, collective,
universal package.
universal package.
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當作廣泛、集體、全體的
一組整體來處理。
一組整體來處理。
01:37
Now, this requires us
to step back one step.
to step back one step.
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這就需要我們向後退一步。
01:40
I think we have to ask ourselves
some hard questions:
some hard questions:
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我認為我們必須要問
我們自己一些困難的問題：
我們自己一些困難的問題：
01:43
Do we have any chance of accomplishing
the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030?
the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030?
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我們是否有機會在 2030 年
完成永續發展目標？
完成永續發展目標？
01:49
Are there actually inherent trade-offs
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是否在本質上有一些取捨
01:50
that are not compatible
with our current development paradigm?
with our current development paradigm?
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和我們目前的發展範式不相容？
01:55
But are there, perhaps, synergies
where we can really accelerate change?
where we can really accelerate change?
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但，有沒有協同合作等等
可以讓我們真正加速改變？
可以讓我們真正加速改變？
它真的是一個
「人類—地球」議程，
「人類—地球」議程，
01:58
And is it really a people-planet agenda,
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02:01
really taking seriously
the social and economic aspirational goals
the social and economic aspirational goals
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真正有在地球的生命維持系統之下
嚴肅考量有抱負的
社會和經濟目標？
社會和經濟目標？
02:06
within the life-support systems on earth?
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02:10
Now, citizens across the world
have started to recognize
have started to recognize
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全世界的公民都開始認知到
02:13
that we're facing global
rising environmental risks;
rising environmental risks;
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我們正面臨全球性的
環境風險都在上升；
環境風險都在上升；
02:16
in fact, that a stable planet
is a prerequisite
is a prerequisite
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事實上，穩定的星球
是必要的前提條件，
是必要的前提條件，
02:19
to have good human well-being on earth.
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然後人類才有可能
在地球上安康樂利。
在地球上安康樂利。
02:22
We need to define a safe operating space
on a stable earth system,
on a stable earth system,
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我們需要在穩定的地球系統上
定義出一個安全生存空間，
定義出一個安全生存空間，
02:27
and the planetary boundary
framework was introduced
framework was introduced
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2009 年，科學界提出了
02:30
by the scientific community in 2009
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地球限度架構，
02:32
to do exactly that.
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就是這個目的。
02:34
It has now been widely embraced
across the world
across the world
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這個架構現在已
在全世界被廣為接受，
在全世界被廣為接受，
02:37
in policy, business and communities
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在政策、企業，以及社區內
02:39
as a framework for sustainable development
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被當作是人類世的永續發展架構。
02:42
in the Anthropocene.
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02:43
This slide really shows the framework
with the nine environmental processes
with the nine environmental processes
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這張投影片上的就是這個架構，
及 9 個環境過程，
02:49
that regulate the stability
of the earth system,
of the earth system,
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用以調節地球系統的穩定度，
提供安全生存空間，
提供安全生存空間，
02:51
providing a safe operating space,
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02:53
where we'll have a high chance
of having good human well-being
of having good human well-being
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我們才能有很大的機會能達成
安康樂利、繁榮興盛，以及平等。
02:57
and prosperity and equity.
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02:58
If we move into the yellow zone,
we enter a dangerous uncertainty zone;
we enter a dangerous uncertainty zone;
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如果我們移入黃色地帶，
就是進入了危險的不確定地帶；
就是進入了危險的不確定地帶；
03:02
and into the red, we have a high
likelihood of crossing tipping points
likelihood of crossing tipping points
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紅色地帶則表示
很有可能過了臨界點，
很有可能過了臨界點，
03:06
that could take us irreversibly away
from the ability of the earth system
from the ability of the earth system
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會讓地球系統越來越
無法為人類提供社會
無法為人類提供社會
和經濟的安康樂利，
而這是個不可逆的後果。
而這是個不可逆的後果。
03:10
to provide social and economic
well-being for humanity.
well-being for humanity.
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03:15
Now, we can today, scientifically,
quantify these boundaries,
quantify these boundaries,
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現今，我們可以用科學的方式
將這些限度給量化，
03:20
providing us a stable
earth system for humanity.
earth system for humanity.
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提供人類一個穩定的地球系統。
03:24
But we have to go beyond this
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但我們必須要超越它，
03:25
and recognize the Sustainable
Development Goals --
Development Goals --
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要認知到永續發展目標——
若我們真心想要認真達成它們——
若我們真心想要認真達成它們——
03:28
if we really want
to seriously accomplish them --
to seriously accomplish them --
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現在就必須要在這個
安全生存空間中發生。
安全生存空間中發生。
03:30
must now occur within
this safe operating space.
this safe operating space.
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03:33
We need to achieve SDGs within PBs.
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我們需要在地球限度之內
達成永續發展目標。
達成永續發展目標。
03:38
But dear friends, not even this is enough.
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但，親愛的朋友們，
就算這樣也還不足夠。
就算這樣也還不足夠。
03:41
We need to recognize
that the Sustainable Development Goals
that the Sustainable Development Goals
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我們必須要認知到，
要達到永續發展目標，只剩十二年。
03:43
is 12 years away.
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03:45
It's only a milestone.
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它只是一個里程碑。
03:47
It is the bull's-eye
that we need to go through
that we need to go through
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它是我們需要穿過的靶心，
03:50
and zoom ourselves towards transformations
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將我們自己推向轉變，
03:53
where we can have a good future
for all co-citizens on earth,
for all co-citizens on earth,
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才能為地球上的所有共同公民
創造出一個美好未來，
創造出一個美好未來，
03:56
nine billion plus,
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讓超過 90 億人
生活在穩定的地球系統中，
生活在穩定的地球系統中，
03:58
within a stable earth system
in 2050 and beyond.
in 2050 and beyond.
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在 2050 年達成並持續下去。
04:02
This is a quest,
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這是一項追尋，
04:04
and in order to really explore this
and not have only opinions about it,
and not have only opinions about it,
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為了要真正去做探索，
而不只是有口頭意見，
而不只是有口頭意見，
04:07
we gathered the scientific community,
the best thinkers and modelers
the best thinkers and modelers
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我們集結了科學界，
最好的思想家和建模者，
最好的思想家和建模者，
04:11
and started to develop a completely
new complex systems dynamic model,
new complex systems dynamic model,
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開始發展一個全新的
複雜系統動態模型，
複雜系統動態模型，
04:14
the Earth-3 model,
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「地球 3 號」，
04:16
building on models that have been around
for the last 50 years.
for the last 50 years.
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建基於這 50 年已有的模型。
04:20
And here it is.
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就是它。
它是個很棒的傑作。
04:22
This is a fantastic piece of work.
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04:25
This has a climate module, a biosphere
module, a global economic model;
module, a global economic model;
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它有氣候模組、生物圈模組、
全球經濟模組；
全球經濟模組；
04:29
it has algorithms, it has the whole room
of fantastic accomplishments.
of fantastic accomplishments.
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它有演算法，
它有一大堆不凡的成果。
04:34
This is what turns us scientists on.
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它能讓我們科學家動情。（笑聲）
04:36
(Laughter)
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我的意思是，它是很美好的傑作。
04:37
I mean, this is just
a beautiful piece of work?
a beautiful piece of work?
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我很想要用整晚的時間
帶各位了解它，
帶各位了解它，
04:39
And I'd just love to spend the whole
evening walking this through with you,
evening walking this through with you,
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但我會讓你們失望。
04:43
but I'll make you disappointed.
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04:45
I cannot do that.
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我無法這麼做。
04:47
In fact, the only thing I can do with you
is just to assure you
is just to assure you
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事實上，我唯一能為你們做的
就是向你們保證它是史無前例的。
04:50
that this is the first time it's done.
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04:52
Nobody has ever tried
to really analytically combine
to really analytically combine
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從來沒有人試圖在分析面上
將永續發展目標和地球限度結合。
04:55
the Sustainable Development Goals
with planetary boundaries.
with planetary boundaries.
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04:58
And we were able to find patterns
and really convergent trends
and really convergent trends
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我們有辦法找到模式
和真正的收斂趨勢，
05:04
that gives us a lot of confidence
in our ability to now project
in our ability to now project
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這讓我們很有信心，
相信我們現在有能力可以企劃
相信我們現在有能力可以企劃
經濟發展、
05:08
economic development,
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05:09
resources use from water, food and energy,
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水、食物，和能源的資源使用、
05:12
population growth, income per person,
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人口成長、人均收入，
05:14
yet along these consistent
and systemic pathways.
and systemic pathways.
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而且還能維持一致性和系統性。
05:18
So, it's the first time we have
a robust opportunity
a robust opportunity
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這是頭一次，我們有
穩定健全的機會，
穩定健全的機會，
05:21
to really explore the futures of ability
of attaining the SDGs within PBs.
of attaining the SDGs within PBs.
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能夠真正去探索未來在地球限度之內
達成永續發展目標的能力。
達成永續發展目標的能力。
05:26
Now, how do we do this?
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我們要如何做到？看看這個。
05:27
Well, look at this.
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05:28
Here, you have the data
coming from the real world,
coming from the real world,
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這裡，有來自真實世界的資料，
05:32
calibrated from 1970-2015:
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校正為 1970 年到 2015 年：
05:34
100,000 data points around the world,
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全世界的 10 萬個資料點，
05:37
building on seven regions' ability,
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表示 7 個地區真正能處理
05:40
of really picking on all these
Sustainable Development Goals.
Sustainable Development Goals.
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所有這些永續發展目標的能力。
05:43
Now, one example of how
we calibrated this,
we calibrated this,
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舉例來說明我們如何校正它，
這裡有永續發展目標的資料，
05:45
here you have [data] for
Sustainable Development Goals
Sustainable Development Goals
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05:47
on eradicating poverty, health,
education and food.
education and food.
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內容是關於根除貧窮、
健康、教育，以及食物。
健康、教育，以及食物。
05:51
And here you have in the bubbles
the seven regions of the world,
the seven regions of the world,
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這些泡泡是世界上的 7 個區域，
05:55
how they move up until 2015
in our empirical observations
in our empirical observations
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可以看見截至 2015 年，
隨著這些區域的人均 GDP
相關經驗觀察值如何向上爬升，
05:59
in relation to GDP per capita,
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06:02
giving these universal convergent trends,
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產生這些全球的收斂趨勢，
06:04
which enabled us to create regressions
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讓我們能建立迴歸模型，
06:07
that could make us able to do
simulations into the future,
simulations into the future,
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這麼一來就可以做出
一直到 2050 的未來模擬，
06:11
all the way until 2050,
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06:13
showing the ability along
the lines here to attain the SDGs.
the lines here to attain the SDGs.
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呈現出用這裡的方式
來達成永續發展目標的能力。
來達成永續發展目標的能力。
06:18
Now, this gave us the opportunity
of doing several scenarios,
of doing several scenarios,
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這讓我們有機會可以做幾種情境，
06:23
testing different possible futures:
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測試不同的可能未來：
06:25
business as usual, global transformations,
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照常營運，全球轉型，
06:28
investment schemes in business,
different governance options,
different governance options,
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企業的投資計畫，
不同的治理選項，
不同的治理選項，
06:31
policies, finance --
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政策，金融——
06:34
really, to explore what
the future can look like
the future can look like
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去探究以我們在地球限度的範圍內
達成永續發展目標的能力，
達成永續發展目標的能力，
06:37
in our ability to attain
the SDGs within PBs.
the SDGs within PBs.
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未來可以變成什麼樣子。
06:40
And the results, I can tell you,
really surprised us.
really surprised us.
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我可以告訴各位的是，
結果讓我們很驚訝。
結果讓我們很驚訝。
06:43
And this will be
the first time it's shown.
the first time it's shown.
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這將會是頭一次呈現出來。
06:45
It should actually not even
be referenced outside of this room.
be referenced outside of this room.
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甚至在這間房間以外的地方
都不應該提到它。
都不應該提到它。
06:49
Now, it actually is presented
along two axes.
along two axes.
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它其實是用兩個軸來呈現。
06:52
The y-axis here shows our ability
to stay within planetary boundaries.
to stay within planetary boundaries.
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這裡的 Y 軸是我們保持
在地球限度內的能力。
在地球限度內的能力。
06:56
The higher up, the closer you are
to the safe operating space.
to the safe operating space.
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越上面就表示你越接近
安全生存空間。
安全生存空間。
07:00
On the x-axis are
the Sustainable Development Goals;
the Sustainable Development Goals;
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X 軸是永續發展目標；
07:03
the further to the right,
the more of the SDGs we fulfill.
the more of the SDGs we fulfill.
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越右邊表示我們能實現
越多永續發展目標。
越多永續發展目標。
07:06
We all want to be in
the upper right-hand corner,
the upper right-hand corner,
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我們都希望能落在右上角，
07:08
the safe and just world for the future.
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表示未來有安全且公平的世界。
07:11
Now, the point you see there is 1980.
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各位看到的這個點，是 1980 年。
07:14
We were in a situation where we actually
were in a safe operating space
were in a safe operating space
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我們當時的情況是
處在安全生存空間中，
處在安全生存空間中，
07:17
but not meeting so many of the SDGs.
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但還沒有實現很多永續發展目標。
07:19
Here's the trend up until 2015.
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這是一直到 2015 年的趨勢。
07:22
So this is the conventional world,
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這是傳統的世界，
07:24
which is actually delivering
on an increasing number of SDGs,
on an increasing number of SDGs,
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它真的能實現越來越多的
永續發展目標，
永續發展目標，
07:27
lifting millions of people out of poverty,
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讓數百萬人脫離貧困，
07:30
but doing it at the expense
of the safe operating space on earth.
of the safe operating space on earth.
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但這麼做的代價卻是
地球上的安全生存空間。
地球上的安全生存空間。
07:35
Now, this is the scenario
business as usual, into the future.
business as usual, into the future.
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這就是照常營運，
朝未來前進的情境。
朝未來前進的情境。
07:38
If we just move on as today,
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如果我們就這樣走下去，
07:40
we will be able to deliver
on some of the SDGs,
on some of the SDGs,
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我們將能夠實現一些永續發展目標，
07:43
but we'll do it at the expense
of the stability of the earth system.
of the stability of the earth system.
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但我們會付出的代價是
地球系統的穩定度。
地球系統的穩定度。
07:48
Now, what if we go faster
on economic growth
on economic growth
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如果我們把經濟成長加速，
07:50
and really ally on one percent
increase per year of income
increase per year of income
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真正做到每年收入增加 1%，
07:55
and an even tripling
of the world economy by 2050?
of the world economy by 2050?
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甚至到了 2050 年
讓世界經濟變成 3 倍呢？
讓世界經濟變成 3 倍呢？
07:59
That would give us
the following trajectory.
the following trajectory.
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那就會產生下列的軌跡。
08:01
We would, yes, go a little bit further
on SDG accomplishments,
on SDG accomplishments,
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的確，我們在永續發展目標的
完成度上會有進步，
完成度上會有進步，
08:05
but still at the expense of the risk
of destabilizing the planet.
of destabilizing the planet.
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但代價仍然會是有讓地球
穩定度下降的風險。
穩定度下降的風險。
08:10
But what if we really go harder?
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但如果我們真的很努力呢？
08:12
What if we increase our ability
to deliver on our promises by 30 percent
to deliver on our promises by 30 percent
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如果把我們實現
諾言的能力增加 30%，
諾言的能力增加 30%，
08:16
across all sectors in society,
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涵蓋社會上的各個部門，
08:19
from climate to our trade agreements?
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從氣候到貿易協定？
08:23
A harder scenario would take us
a little bit better,
a little bit better,
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這個比較努力的情境
會讓我們有更好一點的結果，
會讓我們有更好一點的結果，
08:27
but still, we're failing on the SDGs,
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但我們仍然做不到永續發展目標，
08:30
and we are not accomplishing
a safe operating space for humanity.
a safe operating space for humanity.
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且我們也沒有達成
人類的安全生存空間。
人類的安全生存空間。
08:34
So this really led us to a quite
disappointing conclusion,
disappointing conclusion,
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所以這其實會帶領我們
走向讓人失望的結論，
走向讓人失望的結論，
08:39
that we will actually, even if we go
conventional futures, fail on the SDGs
conventional futures, fail on the SDGs
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即：即使我們選擇傳統方式的未來，
還是做不到永續發展目標，
且會超過地球限度。
且會超過地球限度。
08:44
and transgress planetary boundaries.
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08:46
We need some radical thinking.
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我們需要一些根本性思考。
我們必須要進入
我們必須要進入
08:47
We need to go into
a transformative, disruptive future,
a transformative, disruptive future,
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一個轉型的、顛覆性的未來，
08:52
where we start thinking
outside of the box.
outside of the box.
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在這個未來，
我們可以跳出框框思考。
我們可以跳出框框思考。
08:55
The modeling and engagement
and dialogues enable us to identify
and dialogues enable us to identify
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建模、參與、對話，
讓我們可以找出 5 種轉型，
讓我們可以找出 5 種轉型，
08:58
five transformations that could
actually potentially take us there.
actually potentially take us there.
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真的有機會帶我們走向這樣的未來。
09:02
The first one is to cut emissions
by half every decade
by half every decade
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第 1 種是每 10 年
就讓排放量減半，
就讓排放量減半，
09:05
along the scientific pathway to Paris,
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朝巴黎協議努力，
09:08
doubling investments in renewable energy,
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把對於再生能源的投資加倍，
09:10
creating a global energy democracy,
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創造出全球能源民主，
09:12
allowing us to meet several of the SDGs.
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讓我們可以達成
好幾個永續發展模型。
好幾個永續發展模型。
09:16
The second is a rapid shift
towards sustainable food systems,
towards sustainable food systems,
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第 2 種是快速轉換，
轉為永續食物系統，
轉為永續食物系統，
09:20
investing one percent per year
in sustainable intensification
in sustainable intensification
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每年投資 1% 做永續的強化，
09:24
and really moving towards implementing
and investing in solutions
and investing in solutions
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真正邁向導入及投資我們現今
09:27
that we already have available today.
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已經可取得的解決方案。
09:31
The third is really to shift
our development paradigm
our development paradigm
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第 3 種是真正轉換
我們的發展範式，
我們的發展範式，
09:35
and learn from many
of the developing countries
of the developing countries
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並向許多快速前進的
開發中國家學習。
開發中國家學習。
09:37
that have moved very fast.
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如果我們能夠有
中國那樣的經濟成長，
中國那樣的經濟成長，
09:38
What if we could have
an economic growth such as in China,
an economic growth such as in China,
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09:42
while doing it within
the environmental parameters
the environmental parameters
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而且是在生態文明的
環境參數之內辦到，如何？
09:45
of an ecological civilization?
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09:47
Fourth, a redistribution of wealth.
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第 4 種，財富重新分配。
09:50
What if we could [agree]
that the richest 10 percent
that the richest 10 percent
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如果我們能同意，最有錢的 10% 人
不能讓自己積聚的最大值超過
09:53
could not allow themselves to amass
more than 40 percent, maximum,
more than 40 percent, maximum,
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全國收入的 40% ——
09:56
of national incomes --
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09:58
a drastic redistribution of wealth,
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財富的極端重新分配，
10:00
reforming the ability
of equity across regions?
of equity across regions?
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重新形成各區域
平等的能力，如何？
平等的能力，如何？
10:03
And finally, fifth, a radical increase
in more education, health,
in more education, health,
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最後，第 5 種，
從根本上增加更多教育、
從根本上增加更多教育、
健康、工作機會、避孕、
10:07
access to work, contraception,
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10:09
investing largely in women
across the world,
across the world,
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在全世界大量投資女性，
10:12
allowing us to deliver on SDGs
on gender, inequality,
on gender, inequality,
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讓我們能實現關於
性別、不平等、經濟，
性別、不平等、經濟，
和都市發展的永續發展目標。
10:17
economics and urban development.
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10:20
Now, if we would push ourselves
across all these five --
across all these five --
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如果我們要在這 5 種
轉型上都加把勁——
轉型上都加把勁——
10:23
we tested this, and it would give us
an amazing journey
an amazing journey
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我們做過測試了，結果是會讓我們
踏上一段很了不起的旅程，
10:29
towards the safe and just
operating space on earth.
operating space on earth.
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目標是地球上創造安全、
公平的生存空間。
公平的生存空間。
10:33
It shows us that even with
a conservative, empirically based,
a conservative, empirically based,
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我們可以看到，
即使是用一個保守、
即使是用一個保守、
以經驗為基礎的
複雜系統動態模型，
複雜系統動態模型，
10:37
complex system dynamics model,
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10:39
we are at a state where we can
actually think of transformations
actually think of transformations
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我們的狀態仍然是可以真正去思考
接下來 12 年及之後的轉變，
10:43
over the next 12 years and beyond
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10:45
that can take us up into
the safe operating space
the safe operating space
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來帶我們進入安全生存空間，
10:48
and deliver on aspirational
social and economic goals.
social and economic goals.
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實現很有抱負的社會和經濟目標。
10:52
This is actually quite uplifting,
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這其實相當讓人振奮，
10:55
despite the fact that we're
not moving along this trajectory.
not moving along this trajectory.
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儘管我們現在並沒有
延著這個軌跡移動。
延著這個軌跡移動。
10:58
So, in summary:
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所以，總結一下：
11:00
we now, three years into
the operational delivery on the SDGs,
the operational delivery on the SDGs,
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在運作上去履行永續發展目標
已經有 3 年的時間，
已經有 3 年的時間，
11:04
must draw a line
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我們必須要畫一條線，
11:06
and conclude that we're not
delivering on our promises,
delivering on our promises,
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斷定我們並沒有實現我們的諾言，
11:09
and not only that, we're running the risks
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不僅如此，我們還冒著
11:12
of future generations having
an even tougher ability,
an even tougher ability,
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讓未來世代更辛苦的風險，
11:15
because of the risk of pushing
the earth system beyond tipping points.
the earth system beyond tipping points.
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因為有可能會把地球系統
推向臨界點之外。
推向臨界點之外。
11:19
In fact, we are facing even
a risk of a hothouse earth,
a risk of a hothouse earth,
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事實上，我們甚至
要面對溫室地球的風險，
要面對溫室地球的風險，
11:23
where we will undermine
and create geopolitical instabilities
and create geopolitical instabilities
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這樣我們會逐漸造成損害，
導致地理政治上的不穩定，
導致地理政治上的不穩定，
讓地球上數十億人的生活更困難。
11:26
that could actually make life
even more tough
even more tough
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11:29
for billions of people on earth.
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11:31
This, in all honesty,
really, really scares me.
really, really scares me.
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老實說，這真的很讓我害怕。
11:35
But that's also why
I'm standing here tonight,
I'm standing here tonight,
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但這也是為什麼
今天晚上我會站在這裡，
今天晚上我會站在這裡，
11:38
because the window
of success is still open.
of success is still open.
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因為通往成功的窗戶仍然開著。
11:41
The earth system is still resilient.
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地球系統仍然有恢復力。
11:44
She is still providing us
with ecosystem services and functions
with ecosystem services and functions
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她仍然在提供我們
生態系統服務和功能，
生態系統服務和功能，
11:48
that can allow us a transition
back into a safe operating space.
back into a safe operating space.
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讓我們可以做出轉型，
回到安全生存空間。
回到安全生存空間。
11:51
But we need radically different thinking.
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但我們需要從根本上
就不同的思考。
就不同的思考。
11:54
We need to see this
as an incredible wake-up call
as an incredible wake-up call
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我們需要把它視為是
喚醒我們的警訊，
喚醒我們的警訊，
11:58
but also an opportunity
for transformative change,
for transformative change,
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以及做出轉型式改變的機會，
12:00
where we shift gears
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讓我們換檔，真正開始
把永續發展目標想成是
把永續發展目標想成是
12:02
and really start thinking
of the SDGs as a transformative agenda
of the SDGs as a transformative agenda
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地球上安全生存
空間中的轉變式議程。
空間中的轉變式議程。
12:05
within a safe operating space on earth.
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12:07
In other words, we can build
a safe and just world.
a safe and just world.
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換言之，我們能建立
安全、公平的世界。
安全、公平的世界。
12:12
We just have to really,
really get on with it.
really get on with it.
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我們只需要真正持續好好去做它。
12:15
And let's do it. Thank you.
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我們來做吧。謝謝。
12:17
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Johan Rockstrom - Sustainability expertJohan Rockström works to redefine sustainable development, and figure out what needs to happen.
Why you should listen
Johan Rockström leads the Stockholm Resilience Centre, focusing on a new approach to sustainability: the capacity to use change and crisis to spur renewal and innovative thinking. In 2009, working with an international team of scientists, he identified and quantified a set of nine planetary boundaries within which humanity can continue to develop and thrive for generations to come -- while crossing them could generate abrupt or irreversible environmental changes.
Since then, the boundaries research has spread among international organizations, governments, NGOs and companies and has been adopted as a new framework to guide the discussion about "sustainable growth". It is currently debated as a core part of setting the criteria that will follow the UN's Millennium Development Goals. Rockström also chairs Future Earth, an initiative to advance integrated science for global sustainability.
Johan Rockstrom | Speaker | TED.com