TEDxUCL
Hannah Fry: Is life really that complex?
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Can an algorithm forecast the site of the next riot? In this accessible talk, mathematician Hannah Fry shows how complex social behavior can be analyzed and perhaps predicted through analogies to natural phenomena, like the patterns of a leopard's spots or the distribution of predators and prey in the wild.
Hannah Fry - Complexity theorist
Hannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future. Full bio
Hannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:10
Thanks very much.
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Hvala vam puno.
00:11
I am Hannah Fry, the badass.
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Ja sam opaka Hana Frej.
00:13
And today I'm asking the question:
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I danas vam postavljam pitanje:
00:14
Is life really that complex?
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da li je život zaista toliko složen?
00:16
Now, I've only got nine minutes
to try and provide you with an answer,
to try and provide you with an answer,
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Imam samo devet minuta
da pokušam da vam pružim odgovor,
da pokušam da vam pružim odgovor,
00:19
so what I've done
is split this neatly into two parts:
is split this neatly into two parts:
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pa sam ovo uredno podelila na dva dela:
00:22
part one: yes;
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prvi deo - da
00:25
and later on, part two: no.
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i, malo kasnije, drugi deo - ne.
00:27
Or, to be more accurate: no?
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Ili da budem preciznija - ne?
00:30
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:31
So first of all, let me try and define
what I mean by "complex."
what I mean by "complex."
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Najpre ću pokušati da definišem
šta podrazumevam pod „složenim“.
šta podrazumevam pod „složenim“.
Mogla bih da vam sada iznesem
niz zvaničnih definicija,
niz zvaničnih definicija,
00:34
Now, I could give you
a host of formal definitions,
a host of formal definitions,
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00:36
but in the simplest terms,
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ali, jednostavno rečeno,
00:38
any problem in complexity is something
that Einstein and his peers can't do.
that Einstein and his peers can't do.
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složeni problem je nešto što Ajnštajn
i njegove kolege ne mogu da reše.
i njegove kolege ne mogu da reše.
00:43
So, let's imagine --
if the clicker works ... there we go.
if the clicker works ... there we go.
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Pa, hajde da zamislimo -
ako daljinski funkcioniše... evo ga.
ako daljinski funkcioniše... evo ga.
00:46
Einstein is playing a game of snooker.
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Ajnštajn igra partiju snukera.
00:48
He's a clever chap, so he knows
that when he hits the cue ball,
that when he hits the cue ball,
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On je pametan momak
i zna da, kada udari belu kuglu,
i zna da, kada udari belu kuglu,
mogao bi vam napisati jednačinu
00:51
he could write you an equation
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00:53
and tell you exactly where the red ball
is going to hit the sides,
is going to hit the sides,
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i reći vam gde će tačno
crvena lopta udariti ivice,
crvena lopta udariti ivice,
kojom brzinom će se kretati
i gde će se zaustaviti.
i gde će se zaustaviti.
00:56
how fast it's going
and where it's going to end up.
and where it's going to end up.
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00:59
Now, if you scale these snooker balls
up to the size of the solar system,
up to the size of the solar system,
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Ako povećate kugle za snuker
na veličinu Sunčevog sistema,
na veličinu Sunčevog sistema,
01:02
Einstein can still help you.
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Ajnštajn vam i dalje može pomoći.
01:04
Sure, the physics changes,
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Naravno, fizika se menja,
01:05
but if you wanted to know about
the path of the Earth around the Sun,
the path of the Earth around the Sun,
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ali kada biste hteli da znate
o putanji Zemlje oko Sunca,
o putanji Zemlje oko Sunca,
Ajnštajn bi mogao napisati jednačinu
01:09
Einstein could write you an equation
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i reći vam gde se oba tela nalaze
u bilo kom trenutku.
u bilo kom trenutku.
01:10
telling you where both objects are
at any point in time.
at any point in time.
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01:13
Now, with a surprising
increase in difficulty,
increase in difficulty,
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Uz neočekivano povećanje složenosti,
01:15
Einstein could include
the Moon in his calculations.
the Moon in his calculations.
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Ajnštajn bi u svoje računice
mogao uključiti Mesec.
mogao uključiti Mesec.
Ali kako dodajete sve više i više planeta,
recimo, Mars i Jupiter,
recimo, Mars i Jupiter,
01:18
But as you add more and more planets,
Mars and Jupiter, say,
Mars and Jupiter, say,
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01:21
the problem gets too tough for Einstein
to solve with a pen and paper.
to solve with a pen and paper.
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problem postaje pretežak da bi ga Ajnštajn
rešio pomoću olovke i papira.
rešio pomoću olovke i papira.
01:25
Now, strangely, if instead of having
a handful of planets,
a handful of planets,
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Ono što je čudno je da,
ako biste umesto nekoliko planeta
ako biste umesto nekoliko planeta
01:27
you had millions of objects
or even billions,
or even billions,
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imali milione objekata ili čak milijarde,
01:30
the problem actually becomes much simpler,
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problem u stvari postaje
mnogo jednostavniji
mnogo jednostavniji
01:32
and Einstein is back in the game.
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i Ajnštajn je ponovo u igri.
01:34
Let me explain what I mean by this,
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Da objasnim šta hoću time da kažem,
01:36
by scaling these objects back down
to a molecular level.
to a molecular level.
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tako što ćemo smanjiti ove predmete
na njihov molekularni nivo.
na njihov molekularni nivo.
01:40
If you wanted to trace the erratic path
of an individual air molecule,
of an individual air molecule,
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Kada biste hteli da pratite nestalan put
zasebnog molekula vazduha,
zasebnog molekula vazduha,
01:43
you'd have absolutely no hope.
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to bi bilo sasvim beznadežno.
01:45
But when you have millions
of air molecules all together,
of air molecules all together,
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Ali kada imate milione
molekula vazduha skupa,
molekula vazduha skupa,
01:48
they start to act in a way
which is quantifiable, predictable
which is quantifiable, predictable
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oni počinju da se ponašaju na način
koji se može izmeriti, predvidiv je
koji se može izmeriti, predvidiv je
01:52
and well-behaved.
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i dosledan.
01:53
And thank goodness air is well-behaved,
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I hvala bogu da je vazduh dosledan,
01:55
because if it wasn't,
planes would fall out of the sky.
planes would fall out of the sky.
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jer da nije, avioni bi padali sa neba.
01:58
Now, on an even bigger scale,
across the whole of the world,
across the whole of the world,
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Još šire gledano, na nivou celog sveta,
02:01
the idea is exactly the same
with all of these air molecules.
with all of these air molecules.
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ideja je potpuno ista
kao sa svim ovim molekulima vazduha.
kao sa svim ovim molekulima vazduha.
02:04
It's true that you can't take
an individual rain droplet
an individual rain droplet
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Istina je da ne možemo uzeti
zasebnu kapljicu kiše
zasebnu kapljicu kiše
02:07
and say where it's come from
or where it's going to end up.
or where it's going to end up.
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i reći odakle je došla i gde će završiti.
Ali možemo sa priličnom sigurnošću reći
02:10
But you can say with pretty good certainty
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da li će sutra biti oblačno.
02:12
whether it will be cloudy tomorrow.
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02:14
So that's it.
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Znači, to je to.
02:15
In Einstein's time,
this is how far science had got.
this is how far science had got.
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U Ajnštajnovo vreme,
nauka je dotle stigla.
nauka je dotle stigla.
02:18
We could do really small problems
with a few objects
with a few objects
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Mogli smo da rešimo male probleme
sa nekoliko predmeta,
sa nekoliko predmeta,
02:21
with simple interactions,
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sa prostim interakcijama,
02:23
or we could do huge problems
with millions of objects
with millions of objects
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ili rešavati velike probleme
sa milionima predmeta
sa milionima predmeta
02:25
and simple interactions.
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i prostim interakcijama.
02:27
But what about everything in the middle?
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Ali šta je sa svim onim u sredini?
02:29
Well, just seven years
before Einstein's death,
before Einstein's death,
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Pa, samo sedam godina
pre Ajnštajnove smrti,
pre Ajnštajnove smrti,
02:31
an American scientist called
Warren Weaver made exactly this point.
Warren Weaver made exactly this point.
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američki naučnik Voren Viver
je upravo ovo istakao.
je upravo ovo istakao.
02:35
He said that scientific methodology
has gone from one extreme to another,
has gone from one extreme to another,
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Rekao je da je naučna metodologija
otišla iz jednog ekstrema u drugi,
otišla iz jednog ekstrema u drugi,
02:39
leaving out an untouched
great middle region.
great middle region.
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ostavljajući netaknutom
veliku središnju oblast.
veliku središnju oblast.
02:42
Now, this middle region
is where complexity science lies,
is where complexity science lies,
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Ova središnja oblast je mesto
gde složena nauka počiva
gde složena nauka počiva
02:44
and this is what I mean by complex.
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i to je ono što smatram složenim.
02:47
Now, unfortunately, almost
every single problem you can think of
every single problem you can think of
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Nažalost, skoro svaki problem
koji vam može pasti na pamet
koji vam može pasti na pamet
u vezi sa ljudskim ponašanjem
02:50
to do with human behavior
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02:51
lies in this middle region.
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nalazi se u ovoj središnjoj oblasti.
02:54
Einstein's got absolutely no idea
how to model the movement of a crowd.
how to model the movement of a crowd.
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Ajnštajn uopšte nema pojma kako da napravi
model kretanja gomile ljudi.
model kretanja gomile ljudi.
02:58
There are too many people
to look at them all individually
to look at them all individually
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Previše je osoba
da bismo ih zasebno posmatrali,
da bismo ih zasebno posmatrali,
a premalo da bismo ih tretirali kao gas.
03:01
and too few to treat them as a gas.
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03:03
Similarly, people are prone
to annoying things like decisions
to annoying things like decisions
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Isto tako, ljudi su skloni
iritantnim stvarima
iritantnim stvarima
kao što je donošenje odluka
i to da ne žele da se sudare,
i to da ne žele da se sudare,
03:06
and not wanting to walk into each other,
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što čini problem komplikovanijim.
03:08
which makes the problem
all the more complicated.
all the more complicated.
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03:11
Einstein also couldn't tell you
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Ajnštajn vam takođe nije mogao reći
03:12
when the next stock market crash
is going to be.
is going to be.
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kada će se sledeći pad berze dogoditi.
Ajnštajn vam nije mogao reći
kako da smanjite nezaposlenost.
kako da smanjite nezaposlenost.
03:15
Einstein couldn't tell you
how to improve unemployment.
how to improve unemployment.
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03:18
Einstein can't even tell you
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Ajnštajn vam čak ne može reći
03:19
whether the next iPhone
is going to be a hit or a flop.
is going to be a hit or a flop.
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da li će sledeći Ajfon
biti hit ili propast.
biti hit ili propast.
03:22
So to conclude part one:
we're completely screwed.
we're completely screwed.
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Dakle, da zaključimo prvi deo:
skroz smo nadrljali.
skroz smo nadrljali.
03:25
We've got no tools to deal with this,
and life is way too complex.
and life is way too complex.
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Nemamo načina da se izađemo na kraj
sa ovim i život je previše složen.
sa ovim i život je previše složen.
03:30
But maybe there's hope,
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Ali, možda postoji nada,
jer smo u prethodnih nekoliko godina
03:31
because in the last few years,
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03:33
we've begun to see the beginnings
of a new area of science
of a new area of science
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počeli da vidimo početke
nove oblasti nauke
nove oblasti nauke
03:37
using mathematics
to model our social systems.
to model our social systems.
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koja koristi matematiku
da napravi model naših društvenih sistema.
da napravi model naših društvenih sistema.
03:40
And I'm not just talking here
about statistics and computer simulations.
about statistics and computer simulations.
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A ne govorim samo o statistici
i kompjuterskim simulacijama.
i kompjuterskim simulacijama.
03:43
I'm talking about writing down
equations about our society
equations about our society
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Govorim o ispisivanju
jednačina o našem društvu
jednačina o našem društvu
03:46
that will help us understand
what's going on
what's going on
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koje će nam pomoći
da razumemo šta se dešava
da razumemo šta se dešava
03:48
in the same way as with the snooker balls
or the weather prediction.
or the weather prediction.
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na isti način kao i sa kuglama za snuker
ili vremenskom prognozom.
ili vremenskom prognozom.
03:52
And this has come about
because people have begun to realize
because people have begun to realize
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A ovo se dogodilo
jer su ljudi počeli da shvataju
jer su ljudi počeli da shvataju
da možemo koristiti
i iskorišćavati analogije
i iskorišćavati analogije
03:55
that we can use and exploit analogies
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03:57
between our human systems
and those of the physical world around us.
and those of the physical world around us.
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između naših, ljudskih sistema
i sistema iz fizičkog sveta oko nas.
i sistema iz fizičkog sveta oko nas.
04:01
Now, to give you an example:
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Da vam dam primer:
04:03
the incredibly complex problem
of migration across Europe.
of migration across Europe.
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neverovatno složen problem
migranata širom Evrope.
migranata širom Evrope.
04:06
Actually, as it turns out, when you view
all of the people together,
all of the people together,
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U stvari, kako ispada,
kada pogledate sve ljude zajedno,
kada pogledate sve ljude zajedno,
04:10
collectively, they behave as though
they're following the laws of gravity.
they're following the laws of gravity.
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kolektivno, oni se ponašaju
kao da prate zakone gravitacije.
kao da prate zakone gravitacije.
04:14
But instead of planets
being attracted to one another,
being attracted to one another,
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Ali umesto da se planete
privlače međusobno,
privlače međusobno,
04:17
it's people who are attracted
to areas with better job opportunities,
to areas with better job opportunities,
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ljudi su ti koje privlače oblasti
sa boljim poslovnim prilikama,
sa boljim poslovnim prilikama,
04:21
higher pay, better quality of life
and lower unemployment.
and lower unemployment.
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većom platom, boljim kvalitetom života
i manjom nezaposlenošću.
i manjom nezaposlenošću.
04:25
And in the same way as people
are more likely to go for opportunities
are more likely to go for opportunities
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Isto kao što će ljudi
radije prihvatiti prilike
radije prihvatiti prilike
koje su u blizini mesta gde žive -
iz Londona u Kent, na primer,
iz Londona u Kent, na primer,
04:29
close to where they live already --
London to Kent, for example,
London to Kent, for example,
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nasuprot prelasku iz Londona u Melburn -
04:32
as opposed to London to Melbourne --
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04:34
the gravitational effect of planets
far away is felt much less.
far away is felt much less.
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gravitacioni uticaj udaljenih planeta
se znatno manje oseti.
se znatno manje oseti.
04:38
So, to give you another example:
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Da vam dam još jedan primer -
04:41
in 2008, a group in UCLA
were looking into the patterns
were looking into the patterns
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2008. godine, grupa na Univerzitetu
Kalifornije u Los Anđelesu
Kalifornije u Los Anđelesu
istraživala je da li postoje obrasci
udarnih tačaka provala u gradu.
udarnih tačaka provala u gradu.
04:45
of burglary hot spots in the city.
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04:48
Now, one thing about burglaries
is this idea of repeat victimization.
is this idea of repeat victimization.
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Kod provala postoji
ideja o ponavljanju žrtve.
ideja o ponavljanju žrtve.
04:53
So if you have a group of burglars
who manage to successfully rob an area,
who manage to successfully rob an area,
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Ako imate grupu provalnika koji su uspeli
da uspešno opljačkaju neku oblast,
da uspešno opljačkaju neku oblast,
04:57
they'll tend to return to that area
and carry on burgling it.
and carry on burgling it.
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biće skloni da se vrate u tu oblast
i da nastave da je pljačkaju.
i da nastave da je pljačkaju.
05:01
So they learn the layout of the houses,
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Nauče plan kuća,
05:04
the escape routes
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puteve kojima će pobeći
05:06
and the local security measures
that are in place.
that are in place.
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i lokalne mere bezbednosti
koje su uspostavljene.
koje su uspostavljene.
05:09
And this will continue to happen
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To će nastaviti da se događa
05:11
until local residents and police
ramp up the security,
ramp up the security,
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sve dok lokalno stanovništvo i policija
ne pojačaju obezbeđenje,
ne pojačaju obezbeđenje,
05:14
at which point, the burglars
will move off elsewhere.
will move off elsewhere.
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kada će provalnici preći negde drugde.
05:17
And it's that balance
between burglars and security
between burglars and security
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Ravnoteža provalnika i obezbeđenja
05:19
which creates these dynamic
hot spots of the city.
hot spots of the city.
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je ono što stvara dinamična
udarna mesta u gradu.
udarna mesta u gradu.
05:22
As it turns out,
this is exactly the same process
this is exactly the same process
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Kako ispada, to je potpuno isti proces
05:26
as how a leopard gets its spots,
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kojim leopard dobija svoje tačke,
05:28
except in the leopard example,
it's not burglars and security,
it's not burglars and security,
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osim što u primeru leoparda
nema provalnika i obezbeđenja,
nema provalnika i obezbeđenja,
05:31
it's the chemical process
that creates these patterns
that creates these patterns
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već ove šablone stvara hemijski proces
05:35
and something called "morphogenesis."
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i nešto što se zove „morfogeneza“.
05:37
We actually know an awful lot
about the morphogenesis of leopard spots.
about the morphogenesis of leopard spots.
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Mi zapravo znamo mnogo toga
o morfogenezi leopardovih tačaka.
o morfogenezi leopardovih tačaka.
05:41
Maybe we can use this to try and spot
some of the warning signs with burglaries
some of the warning signs with burglaries
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Možda možemo to iskoristiti da probamo
da nađemo neke znake upozorenja provala,
da nađemo neke znake upozorenja provala,
05:46
and perhaps, also to create
better crime strategies to prevent crime.
better crime strategies to prevent crime.
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a možda i da stvorimo
bolje strategije sprečavanja zločina.
bolje strategije sprečavanja zločina.
Postoji grupa ovde na Univerzitetu
05:50
There's a group here at UCL
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05:51
who are working with
the West Midlands police right now
the West Midlands police right now
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koja upravo sarađuje
sa policijom Zapadnog Midlendsa
sa policijom Zapadnog Midlendsa
05:54
on this very question.
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na ovom problemu.
05:56
I could give you
plenty of examples like this,
plenty of examples like this,
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Mogla bih vam dati
mnogo primera poput ovoga,
mnogo primera poput ovoga,
ali sam htela da na kraju iznesem
jedno od svojih istraživanja
jedno od svojih istraživanja
05:59
but I wanted to leave you
with one from my own research
with one from my own research
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06:02
on the London riots.
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o nemirima u Londonu.
06:03
Now, you probably
don't need me to tell you
don't need me to tell you
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Verovatno ne moram da vam pričam
o događajima prošlog leta,
06:05
about the events of last summer,
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kada su London i Ujedinjeno Kraljevstvo
doživeli najgori produženi period
doživeli najgori produženi period
06:06
where London and the UK saw
the worst sustained period
the worst sustained period
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nasilnih pljačaka i podmetnutih požara
06:09
of violent looting and arson
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06:11
for over twenty years.
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u poslednjih 20 i više godina.
06:13
It's understandable that, as a society,
we want to try and understand
we want to try and understand
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Razumljivo je da, kao društvo,
želimo da pokušamo da razumemo
želimo da pokušamo da razumemo
06:16
exactly what caused these riots,
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šta je tačno izazvalo ove nemire,
06:18
but also, perhaps, to equip our police
with better strategies
with better strategies
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ali i da, možda, opremimo policiju
boljim strategijama
boljim strategijama
06:22
to lead to a swifter
resolution in the future.
resolution in the future.
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koje će u budućnosti
dovesti do bržeg razrešenja.
dovesti do bržeg razrešenja.
06:25
Now, I don't want to upset
the sociologists here,
the sociologists here,
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Ne želim da uznemirim sociologe ovde,
06:28
so I absolutely cannot talk about
the individual motivations for a rioter,
the individual motivations for a rioter,
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stoga uopšte ne mogu govoriti
o pojedinačnim motivima pobunjenika,
o pojedinačnim motivima pobunjenika,
06:33
but when you look at
the rioters all together,
the rioters all together,
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ali kada sagledate
sve pobunjenike zajedno,
sve pobunjenike zajedno,
06:35
mathematically, you can separate it
into a three-stage process
into a three-stage process
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matematički ih možete izdvojiti
u proces od tri faze
u proces od tri faze
06:38
and draw analogies accordingly.
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i shodno tome izvući analogije.
06:40
So, step one: let's say
you've got a group of friends.
you've got a group of friends.
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Prvi korak: recimo da imate
grupu prijatelja.
grupu prijatelja.
06:43
None of them are involved in the riots,
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Niko od njih nije uključen u nemire,
06:45
but one of them walks past
a Foot Locker which is being raided,
a Foot Locker which is being raided,
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ali neko od njih prođe pored
opljačkane prodavnice sportske opreme,
opljačkane prodavnice sportske opreme,
06:49
and goes in and bags himself
a new pair of trainers.
a new pair of trainers.
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uđe unutra i ubaci
u svoju torbu novi par patika.
u svoju torbu novi par patika.
06:51
He texts one of his friends and says,
"Come on down to the riots."
"Come on down to the riots."
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Pošalje poruku jednom od prijatelja
i kaže: „Dođi na pobune.“
i kaže: „Dođi na pobune.“
06:56
So his friend joins him,
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Prijatelj mu se pridruži
06:57
and then the two of them text
more of their friends, who join them,
more of their friends, who join them,
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i onda njih dvojica pozovu
još prijatelja koji im se pridruže,
još prijatelja koji im se pridruže,
07:00
and text more of their friends
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pošalju poruke još nekim prijateljima
i još nekim, i tako to traje.
i još nekim, i tako to traje.
07:02
and more and more, and so it continues.
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07:04
This process is identical to the way
that a virus spreads through a population.
that a virus spreads through a population.
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Ovaj proces je identičan načinu
na koji se virus širi kroz populaciju.
na koji se virus širi kroz populaciju.
07:09
If you think about the bird flu epidemic
of a couple of years ago,
of a couple of years ago,
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Ako se setite epidemije ptičjeg gripa
od pre par godina,
od pre par godina,
07:12
the more people that were infected,
the more people that got infected,
the more people that got infected,
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što je više ljudi bilo zaraženo,
to je više postajalo zaraženo,
to je više postajalo zaraženo,
07:15
and the faster the virus spread
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i sve se brže virus širio
07:17
before the authorities managed
to get a handle on events.
to get a handle on events.
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dok vlasti nisu uspele
da uspostave kontrolu.
da uspostave kontrolu.
07:20
And it's exactly the same process here.
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Ovde postoji upravo isti proces.
07:23
So let's say you've got a rioter,
he's decided he's going to riot.
he's decided he's going to riot.
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Recimo da imate pobunjenika;
odlučio je da će se pobuniti.
odlučio je da će se pobuniti.
07:26
The next thing he has to do
is pick a riot site.
is pick a riot site.
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Sledeće što mora da uradi
je da odabere mesto pobune.
je da odabere mesto pobune.
07:30
Now, what you should know
about rioters is that, um ...
about rioters is that, um ...
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Ono što treba da znate
o pobunjenicima je to da...
o pobunjenicima je to da...
07:33
Oops, clicker's gone. There we go.
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Ups, klik je nestao. Evo ga.
07:35
What you should know about rioters is,
they're not prepared to travel
they're not prepared to travel
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Ono što treba da znate o pobunjenicima
je da nisu spremni da putuju
je da nisu spremni da putuju
07:38
that far from where they live,
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daleko od mesta gde žive,
osim ako je baš uzbudljivo mesto pobune.
osim ako je baš uzbudljivo mesto pobune.
07:40
unless it's a really juicy riot site.
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07:42
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
07:43
So you can see that here from this graph,
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Na ovom grafikonu možete videti
07:45
with an awful lot of rioters
having traveled less than a kilometer
having traveled less than a kilometer
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da je veliki broj pobunjenika
putovao manje od kilometra
putovao manje od kilometra
07:48
to the site that they went to.
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do mesta na koje su otišli.
07:50
Now, this pattern is seen
in consumer models of retail spending,
in consumer models of retail spending,
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Ovaj šablon se uočava u modelima
maloprodajne potrošnje,
maloprodajne potrošnje,
07:55
i.e., where we choose to go shopping.
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tj. gde biramo da idemo u kupovinu.
07:57
So, of course, people like
to go to local shops,
to go to local shops,
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Naravno, ljudi vole da idu
u lokalne radnje,
u lokalne radnje,
08:00
but you'd be prepared
to go a little bit further
to go a little bit further
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ali bi bili spremni da idu malo dalje
08:03
if it was a really good retail site.
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ako je u pitanju
dobra maloprodajna lokacija.
dobra maloprodajna lokacija.
08:05
And this analogy, actually, was already
picked up by some of the papers,
picked up by some of the papers,
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Ovu analogiju su zapravo
već usvojile pojedine novine,
već usvojile pojedine novine,
jer su neki tabloidi nazvali događaje
„kupovina nasiljem“,
„kupovina nasiljem“,
08:09
with some tabloid press calling the events
"Shopping with violence,"
"Shopping with violence,"
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što verovatno sumira stvar
što se tiče našeg istraživanja.
što se tiče našeg istraživanja.
08:12
which probably sums it up
in terms of our research.
in terms of our research.
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08:15
Oh! -- we're going backwards.
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O! - idemo unazad.
08:19
OK, step three.
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Okej, treći korak.
08:21
Finally, the rioter is at his site,
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Najzad, pobunjenik je na svojoj lokaciji
08:23
and he wants to avoid
getting caught by the police.
getting caught by the police.
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i hoće da izbegne da ga uhvati policija.
08:27
The rioters will avoid
the police at all times,
the police at all times,
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Pobunjenici će uvek izbegavati policiju,
ali postoji izvesna sigurnost
kada ih je u većem broju.
kada ih je u većem broju.
08:30
but there is some safety in numbers.
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08:32
And on the flip side, the police,
with their limited resources,
with their limited resources,
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Policija, sa druge strane,
sa svojim ograničenim sredstvima,
sa svojim ograničenim sredstvima,
08:35
are trying to protect
as much of the city as possible,
as much of the city as possible,
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pokušava da zaštiti grad
koliko god je to moguće,
koliko god je to moguće,
08:38
arrest rioters wherever possible
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da hapsi pobunjenike kad god je moguće
08:40
and to create a deterrent effect.
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i da deluje tako da ih odvrati od nemira.
08:45
And actually, as it turns out,
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U stvari, kako se ispostavlja,
08:47
this mechanism between the two species,
so to speak, of rioters and police,
so to speak, of rioters and police,
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ovaj mehanizam između dve vrste,
takoreći, pobunjenika i policije,
takoreći, pobunjenika i policije,
08:51
is identical to predators
and prey in the wild.
and prey in the wild.
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identičan je odnosu
predatora i žrtve u divljini.
predatora i žrtve u divljini.
08:54
So if you can imagine rabbits and foxes,
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Ako zamislite zečeve i lisice,
08:56
rabbits are trying to avoid
foxes at all costs,
foxes at all costs,
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zečevi pokušavaju
da izbegnu lisice po svaku cenu,
da izbegnu lisice po svaku cenu,
08:59
while foxes are patrolling the space,
trying to look for rabbits.
trying to look for rabbits.
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dok lisice patroliraju prostorom
pokušavajući da nađu zečeve.
pokušavajući da nađu zečeve.
09:03
We actually know an awful lot
about the dynamics of predators and prey.
about the dynamics of predators and prey.
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Mi zapravo znamo dosta toga
o dinamici predatora i žrtve.
o dinamici predatora i žrtve.
09:06
We also know a lot about
consumer spending flows.
consumer spending flows.
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Takođe znamo mnogo toga
o tokovima potrošnje.
o tokovima potrošnje.
09:11
And we know a lot about
how viruses spread through a population.
how viruses spread through a population.
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Takođe mnogo toga znamo
o tome kako se virusi šire populacijom.
o tome kako se virusi šire populacijom.
09:14
So if you take these three analogies
together and exploit them,
together and exploit them,
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Ako uzmete ove tri analogije
i iskoristite ih,
i iskoristite ih,
09:17
you can come up with a mathematical
model of what actually happened,
model of what actually happened,
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možete doći do matematičkog modela
toga šta se zaista dogodilo,
toga šta se zaista dogodilo,
09:20
that's capable of replicating
the general patterns
the general patterns
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koji može da ponovo prikaže opšti šablon
09:23
of the riots themselves.
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samih nemira.
09:25
Now, once we've got this,
we can almost use this as a petri dish
we can almost use this as a petri dish
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Kada to dobijemo, skoro da ga možemo
upotrebiti kao petrijevu šolju
upotrebiti kao petrijevu šolju
09:28
and start having conversations
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i početi da vodimo razgovore
09:30
about which areas of the city
were more susceptible than others
were more susceptible than others
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o tome koja područja grada
su podložnija od drugih
su podložnija od drugih
09:33
and what police tactics could be used
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i koje taktike policije se mogu koristiti
09:35
if this were ever to happen
again in the future.
again in the future.
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ako se ovo ikada ponovi u budućnosti.
09:37
Even twenty years ago, modeling
of this sort was completely unheard of.
of this sort was completely unheard of.
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Čak i pre dvadeset godina,
ovakvo modelovanje bilo je nečuveno.
ovakvo modelovanje bilo je nečuveno.
09:41
But I think that these analogies
are an incredibly important tool
are an incredibly important tool
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Ali mislim da su ove analogije
neverovatno važno sredstvo
neverovatno važno sredstvo
09:46
in tackling problems with our society,
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u rešavanju problema našeg društva,
09:48
and perhaps, ultimately improving
our society overall.
our society overall.
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a možda naposletku i u unapređivanju
našeg društva uopšte.
našeg društva uopšte.
09:52
So, to conclude: life is complex,
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Dakle, da zaključimo: život je složen,
09:54
but perhaps understanding it need not
necessarily be that complicated.
necessarily be that complicated.
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ali možda njegovo razumevanje
ne mora nužno da bude tako složeno.
ne mora nužno da bude tako složeno.
09:58
Thank you.
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Hvala.
09:59
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hannah Fry - Complexity theoristHannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future.
Why you should listen
Hannah Fry completed her PhD in fluid dynamics in early 2011 with an emphasis on how liquid droplets move. Then, after working as an aerodynamicist in the motorsport industry, she began work on an interdisciplinary project in complexity sciences at University College London. Hannah’s current research focusses on discovering new connections between mathematically described systems and human interaction at the largest scale.
Fry is the author of the TED Book, The Mathematics of Love: Patterns, Proofs, and the Search for the Ultimate Equation.
Hannah Fry | Speaker | TED.com