Robin Hanson: What would happen if we upload our brains to computers?
羅賓韓森: 如果我們把我們的大腦上傳到電腦上,會如何?
Does humanity have a future as uploaded minds? In his work, Robin Hanson asks this and other extra-large questions. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
as smart as people,
會像人類一樣聰明,
accumulating better software,
我們只要繼續累積更好的軟體,
that may take centuries.
這樣要花上數百年。
powerful theories of intelligence.
全新的強大智慧理論。
from the human brain.
three technologies to be good enough,
讓三種技術的發展足夠成熟,
lots of cheap, fast, parallel computers.
廉價、快速、平行的電腦。
to scan individual human brains
空間與正確的化學成分下
connected to what, of what type.
精確位置、連結、類型。
computer models
changing interval state
改變區間的狀態,
of all the kinds of brain cells
a good enough model of an entire brain,
做出一個完整的大腦模型,
input-output behavior as the original.
輸入和輸出行為一致。
它可能會回話。
it might do them.
everything would change.
一切都會改變。
about this idea for decades,
Or is it just an empty machine?
還是只是個空機器?
is that me or someone else?"
它會是我還是另一個人?
that I'm going to ignore ...
to guess what would happen,
來猜測可能會發生什麼事,
I'm offering analysis.
我是要提供分析。
what's most likely to happen
告訴你們最有可能發生的情況,
by something I tell you here,
並不感到擔心,
of their life in virtual reality.
都是在虛擬現實生活中度過的。
if you were using virtual reality.
這就是你的樣子。
you might hear gulls flying above,
可能還會聽到海鷗從上面飛過,
on your cheeks or smell seawater,
聞到海水的味道。
a lot of time here,
make a phone call,
比如打電話、
you would look like in virtual reality,
看起來的樣子,
would look like in virtual reality.
看起來的樣子。
sitting in a server rack somewhere.
就放在某個伺服器的機架上。
and experience the same thing.
看見和體驗同樣的東西。
有些東西是不同的。
that virtual reality isn't entirely real,
虛擬實境並不全是真實的,
as this room feels to you now
就像你現在對這空間
感受到的真實度一樣。
some more action possibilities.
runs at the same speed,
總是以同樣速度運作,
computer hardware to run faster or slower,
電腦硬體來運作地更快或更慢,
seems to be going too fast,
發展地似乎太快了,
would seem to slow down.
似乎就會慢了下來。
a copy of itself at that moment.
那個時候複製它自己。
everything the same,
looking at the same speed,
以同樣的速度觀察世界,
"You are the copy."
「你只是個複製品。」
usually in practice.
the computer that represents its brain,
也就是代表它的腦的那台電腦,
at the speed of light,
with ems near that new location.
附近的仿真腦做互動。
what ems can do.
to understand three key facts.
先了解三項關鍵事實。
the human they emulate would do
仿真腦在相同情境下,
are very human.
都非常像人類。
they're living in a different world.
它們活在不同的世界裡。
real resources to survive.
energy, cooling, or they can't exist.
能源、冷卻,不然它們將不能生存。
that an em experiences,
had to work to pay for it.
而付出的那個人通常是仿真腦本身。
quicker than the em economy,
仿真腦的經濟成長,
to em subsistence levels.
仿真腦能維持生計的水平。
most of the time.
大部份的時間得要工作。
this is what ems usually see:
you might think, is exotic and strange,
工資的情景是奇異並奇怪的,
in human history,
all wild animals have ever lived,
in this situation.
在這種情況下會做什麼。
what it takes to survive,
so much about the em world.
關於仿真腦世界的原因。
about what they want
what it takes to survive.
就只是生存下來。
from the point of view of the ems --
談了仿真腦的世界。
and look at their whole world.
來看看它們的整個世界。
比我們的世界快很多,
much faster than ours,
we would experience in a century or two,
this age much beyond that,
其它事發生,我們無法知道。
will happen, I don't know what.
runs even faster,
thousands of years in this year or two,
這一、兩年就經歷我們的數千年,
is actually changing more slowly
世界改變很緩慢。
in a small number of very dense cities.
少數幾個高密度城市中。
themselves in virtual reality,
看到的自身狀況,
physically crammed together.
擠在同一個地方的。
feels really painfully slow,
實體旅行是要命的緩慢,
是自給自足的,
away from the em cities
仿真腦城市的其它地方,
really aren't that interested in it.
對這些地方真的不感興趣。
一旦發生了,你就好好退休吧。
all of the capital in this world.
這個世界上所有的資本。
their wealth grows very fast.
他們的財富也成長非常快。
don't actually own that much
除了擁有工作能力外,
they need to acquire sufficient assets,
他們需要獲得足夠的資產、
拿走他們的東西?
unproductive retirees around us today,
沒有生產力的退休者,
and take their stuff.
the institutions we share with them.
我們與他們共同的制度被瓦解。
retire in peace during the age of em.
人類在仿真腦的時代能平靜地退休。
the age of em only lasts a year or two
仿真腦的時代可能只有一、兩年,
of the few hundred most productive humans.
幾百個最有生產力的人的翻版。
compared to the typical human,
與一般人相比它們是菁英,
Nobel Prize winner,
諾貝爾獎得主、
perhaps with nostalgia and gratitude,
懷舊之情和感激之情的,
how you think about your ancestors.
你是怎麽看待你的祖先的。
differ in terms of productivity.
不同個體在生產力方面的不同之處。
to predict features of ems --
來預測仿真腦的特徵──
conscientious, hard-working,
聰明的、認真的、努力的、
of the kinds of variety that humans do,
and profession,
體現了多樣性,
is mind speed.
慢可以慢到與人類一樣的速度
faster than human speed,
幾百萬倍的速度,
slower than human speed.
十億倍的速度。
markers of high status.
They win arguments.
它們能在爭論中勝出。
of our literature.
書中的鬼魂都在我們周圍,
if you pay the price.
就可以與它們互動。
they can't influence much,
它們的影響不大,
so what's the point?
但那有什麼意義?
in the structure of their lives.
也有較高的多樣性。
and you end, really simple.
開始、結束就這麼簡單。
some short-term copies
those short term versions in a moment,
for the next day.
when there's more demand for that.
把自己複製更多份。
the future's going.
who elaborate that,
來詳細說明它的構想,
larger, more coherent designs.
更連貫的設計。
for the last 20 years,
two hours a day, a life of leisure.
很悠閒的人生。
every day they had a thousand copies,
複製出數千個複製品,
went on to the next day.
第二天會接著工作。
都在努力工作。
well over 99 percent of the time.
甚麼是悠閑的生活。
a life of leisure.
You start and you end.
你開始,你結束。
if at the start of party,
you would not remember that party
它會讓你在那天之後再也
"I'm about to die, this is terrible.
「我快要死了,這太可怕了。
because they won't remember what I do."
因為他不會記得我做過的事。」
I just won't remember what I did."
只是不記得我過去做了什麽。」
a short-term copy
attitude possibilities.
creature with a short life. I hate this."
生命很短。我討厭這樣。」
只是記不得是哪一部份。」
who won't remember this part."
that second attitude,
那種態度能幫助它們相處。
but because it helps them get along.
we must invade Iraq,
我們必須要侵略伊拉克,
你的複製品可以進入一個保險箱,
and a copy of you can go inside a safe,
from your copy to yourself,
從你的複製品回來告知你,
there is a good reason.
to evaluate this world.
if you love it or hate it.
你是否喜歡它或討厭它。
from thousands of years ago
they heard about it,
is really just weird.
you should really learn a lot about it,
未來世界之前,
work to change it.
就努力去改變它。
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robin Hanson - Futurist, social scientistDoes humanity have a future as uploaded minds? In his work, Robin Hanson asks this and other extra-large questions.
Why you should listen
In his book, The Age of Em: Work, Love and Life When Robots Rule the Earth, Robin Hanson re-imagines humanity's role as our tech becomes smarter. A pioneer in prediction markets, also known as information markets and idea futures, Hanson has been known since the 1980s for taking the very very long view on topics as varied as (a selected list) spatial product competition, health incentive contracts, group insurance, product bans, evolutionary psychology and bioethics of health care, voter information incentives, incentives to fake expertise, Bayesian classification, agreeing to disagree, self-deception in disagreement, probability elicitation, wiretaps, image reconstruction, the history of science prizes, reversible computation, the origin of life, the survival of humanity, very long term economic growth, growth given machine intelligence and interstellar colonization.
Meanwhile, he has developed new technologies for conditional, combinatorial and intermediated trading, and he studied insider trading, manipulation and other foul play. Hanson is associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. His next book is The Elephant in the Brain, co-authored with Kevin Simler, due in 2018.
Robin Hanson | Speaker | TED.com