TED2018
Angel Hsu: How China is (and isn't) fighting pollution and climate change
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China is the world's biggest polluter -- and now one of its largest producers of clean energy. Which way will China go in the future, and how will it affect the global environment? Data scientist Angel Hsu describes how the most populous country on earth is creating a future based on alternative energy -- and facing up to the environmental catastrophe it created as it rapidly industrialized.
Angel Hsu - Environmental data scientist
Angel Hsu is a professor and data geek who applies data-driven methods to solve challenging environmental issues. Full bio
Angel Hsu is a professor and data geek who applies data-driven methods to solve challenging environmental issues. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
When is seeing not believing?
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A couple years ago, my friend
sent me this photo from Ürümqi,
sent me this photo from Ürümqi,
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which is the capital of Xinjiang
province in northwest China.
province in northwest China.
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On this particular day,
she couldn't believe her eyes.
she couldn't believe her eyes.
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Checking the quality of the air outside
using this app on her iPad,
using this app on her iPad,
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the numbers were telling her
the air quality was good,
the air quality was good,
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one on a scale of 500.
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But when she looked outside,
she saw something much different.
she saw something much different.
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Yes, those are buildings
in the background.
in the background.
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(Laughter)
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But the data were simply
not telling the truth
not telling the truth
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of what people were seeing and breathing,
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and it's because they were
failing to measure PM2.5,
failing to measure PM2.5,
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or fine particulate pollution.
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When PM2.5 levels
went off the charts in 2012,
went off the charts in 2012,
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01:02
or "crazy bad," as the US Embassy
once described it in a tweet,
once described it in a tweet,
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Chinese denizens took to social media
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and they started to question why it was
that they were seeing this disconnect
that they were seeing this disconnect
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between official air quality statistics
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01:14
and what they were seeing
and breathing for themselves.
and breathing for themselves.
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Now, this questioning has led
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to an environmental awakening
of sorts in China,
of sorts in China,
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forcing China's government
to tackle its pollution problems.
to tackle its pollution problems.
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Now China has the opportunity
to become a global environmental leader.
to become a global environmental leader.
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01:34
But the picture
that I'll paint for you today
that I'll paint for you today
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is one that's mixed.
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There are some signs
that are very promising,
that are very promising,
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and there are other trends
that are more troubling
that are more troubling
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that warrant closer attention.
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But now let's go back
to the story at hand.
to the story at hand.
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I started to witness the beginnings
of China's green evolution
of China's green evolution
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when I was a PhD student
conducting fieldwork in China in 2011.
conducting fieldwork in China in 2011.
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I traveled all across the country
seeking answers to the question
seeking answers to the question
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that I often got myself
from the skeptical outsider:
from the skeptical outsider:
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02:03
What, you mean China is doing
something on the environment?
something on the environment?
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They have environmental policies?
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02:07
What policies?
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At that time, PM2.5 data
was considered too politically sensitive
was considered too politically sensitive
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and so the government
was keeping it secret,
was keeping it secret,
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but citizens were becoming aware
of its harmful human health effects,
of its harmful human health effects,
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and they were demanding
greater transparency
greater transparency
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on the part of the government.
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I actually started to see some of this
growing evolution and awareness myself
growing evolution and awareness myself
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cropping up all over China.
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Department stores, for example,
started to market these air purifiers
started to market these air purifiers
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that could filter out harmful PM2.5.
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Citizens were also adopting PM2.5
as the title of musical festivals.
as the title of musical festivals.
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(Laughter)
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And then I went to a golf course
in Shenzhen, which is in southern China,
in Shenzhen, which is in southern China,
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and you can see from this banner,
they're advertising a retreat from PM2.5.
they're advertising a retreat from PM2.5.
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Golf sub-par, but don't
breathe sub-par air.
breathe sub-par air.
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And then Shanghai's
Environmental Protection Bureau
Environmental Protection Bureau
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decided to create a mascot
named after the air quality index
named after the air quality index
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to better communicate
the air quality data to its people.
the air quality data to its people.
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I call her AQI Girl,
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and her expression and hair color changes
depending on the quality of air outside.
depending on the quality of air outside.
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Five years later and she's still
the mostly smiling face
the mostly smiling face
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of Shanghai's air quality.
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And then in 2015,
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former CCTV reporter Chai Jing
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created this documentary
called "Under the Dome."
called "Under the Dome."
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It would be likened
to Rachel Carson's "Silent Spring."
to Rachel Carson's "Silent Spring."
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And much like Rachel Carson
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brought to attention the fact
that pesticides were harming human health,
that pesticides were harming human health,
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"Under the Dome" stamped
into the popular consciousness
into the popular consciousness
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that air pollution was leading
to one million premature deaths
to one million premature deaths
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every year in China alone.
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This video garnered
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more than a hundred million
views in a single weekend
views in a single weekend
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before China's government,
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fearing that it might incite
some type of social unrest,
some type of social unrest,
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pulled it from the internet.
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But the damage had already been done.
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Public outcry over air pollution
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galvanized China's government,
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perhaps in an act of self-preservation,
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to think big and decisively
about how it could tackle
about how it could tackle
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the root of its air pollution
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and many of its other
environmental problems:
environmental problems:
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its energy system.
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For you see, in China,
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about two thirds of its
electricity comes from coal.
electricity comes from coal.
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China has more coal-fired power plants
than any other country in the world,
than any other country in the world,
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about 40 percent of the global total,
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and it's because of this fact
that China's government
that China's government
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has decided since 2014
to wage a war on coal,
to wage a war on coal,
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shutting down small coal mines,
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setting limits on coal consumption,
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even canceling an Australia's worth
of coal-fired power plants.
of coal-fired power plants.
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They've also been making
enormous investments
enormous investments
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when it comes to clean
and renewable energy,
and renewable energy,
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like hydropower, wind and solar,
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and the pace and the scale
of this transformation
of this transformation
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has been absolutely mind-blowing.
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Let me give you a couple of statistics
to show you what I mean.
to show you what I mean.
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China leads the world
when it comes to hydropower,
when it comes to hydropower,
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with a third of total capacity.
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There's enough for every Chinese citizen
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to power two homes in a single year
from hydropower alone.
from hydropower alone.
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You may have heard
of the Three Gorges Dam,
of the Three Gorges Dam,
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pictured here,
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which is the largest
power station in the world,
power station in the world,
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and it's powered by water.
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In terms of wind power,
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China has a third of the global capacity.
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This makes it the number one
leader by far.
leader by far.
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When we look at solar,
China's also leading.
China's also leading.
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In fact, they crushed their 2020 target
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of installing 105 gigawatts
of solar power.
of solar power.
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This is after the government
already revised upwards
already revised upwards
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several times its solar energy target
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between 2009 and 2015.
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Last year, in seven months alone,
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China was able to install
a whopping 35 gigawatts of solar power.
a whopping 35 gigawatts of solar power.
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This is more than half
of what the US has combined in total
of what the US has combined in total
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and China did this
in just seven months alone.
in just seven months alone.
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We can verify this remarkable growth
in solar power from space,
in solar power from space,
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like the startup SpaceKnow
has done in this slide.
has done in this slide.
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By 2020, China is on track to generate
Germany's entire electricity consumption
Germany's entire electricity consumption
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from just wind and solar power alone.
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It's pretty darn remarkable.
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And we see some evidence now
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that China's efforts on clean energy
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is actually having an effect,
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not just on air pollution reduction,
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but also on global climate change,
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where China has the world's
largest carbon footprint.
largest carbon footprint.
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If we look at some of the data,
we can see that China's coal consumption
we can see that China's coal consumption
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may have already reached a peak
as early as 2013.
as early as 2013.
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This is a major reason
why China's government announced
why China's government announced
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that actually they've already achieved
their 2020 carbon reduction pledge
their 2020 carbon reduction pledge
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ahead of schedule.
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This reduction in coal consumption
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is also directly driving
improvements in air quality
improvements in air quality
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across the country,
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as I've shown here in blue.
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In most major Chinese cities,
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air pollution has fallen
by as much as 30 percent.
by as much as 30 percent.
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And this reduction in air pollution
is actually leading people
is actually leading people
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to live longer lives in China,
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on average two and a half years more
than they would have in 2013.
than they would have in 2013.
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In yellow, we can see
the cities that have experienced
the cities that have experienced
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the greatest improvements in air quality.
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But of course, as I mentioned
at the beginning of this talk,
at the beginning of this talk,
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we have to temper some of this optimism
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with a healthy dose of caution,
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and that's largely because
the data are still being determined.
the data are still being determined.
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At the end of last year,
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after roughly three years
of pretty steady global carbon emissions,
of pretty steady global carbon emissions,
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scientific projections suggest
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that global emissions
may be on the rise again
may be on the rise again
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and that could be due to increases
in China's fossil fuel consumptions,
in China's fossil fuel consumptions,
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so they may not have reached
that peak that I showed earlier.
that peak that I showed earlier.
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But of course, the statistics
and the data are still murky
and the data are still murky
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and that's because China regularly revises
its coal statistics after the fact.
its coal statistics after the fact.
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Actually, it's funny,
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since I've been here I've been
having a debate on Twitter
having a debate on Twitter
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with other climate modelers,
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trying to figure out
whether China's carbon emissions
whether China's carbon emissions
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have gone up, gone down or whether
they're staying relatively stable.
they're staying relatively stable.
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And of course, China is still
a rapidly developing country.
a rapidly developing country.
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It's still experimenting
with a range of policies,
with a range of policies,
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like dockless bike sharing,
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which has been hailed as a possible
sustainable transport solution.
sustainable transport solution.
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But then we have images
of this bicycle graveyard
of this bicycle graveyard
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that tell a more cautionary tale.
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Sometimes, solutions can move too fast
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and outpace demand.
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And of course,
coal is still king in China,
coal is still king in China,
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at least for now.
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So why should we care about
what China is doing on the environment?
what China is doing on the environment?
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Well, what China does at home
on the environment
on the environment
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can have global implications
for the rest of us.
for the rest of us.
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To borrow a line from Chai Jing,
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we're all under the same dome,
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and air pollution that originates in China
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can travel beyond its borders
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and affect populations
as far away as those in North America.
as far away as those in North America.
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China's not only exporting air pollution,
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but they're also exporting aid,
infrastructure, technology abroad.
infrastructure, technology abroad.
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President Xi Jinping in 2013 announced
the One Belt, One Road Initiative,
the One Belt, One Road Initiative,
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a massive, one-trillion-US-dollar
infrastructure investment project
infrastructure investment project
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in more than 60 other countries.
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And historically, when we've seen
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that China has made
these infrastructure investments abroad,
these infrastructure investments abroad,
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they haven't always been clean.
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The Global Environment Institute,
a Chinese civil society group,
a Chinese civil society group,
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found that in the last 15 years,
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China has invested in more
than 240 coal-fired power plants
than 240 coal-fired power plants
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in more than 68 countries
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affiliated with the One Belt,
One Road Initiative.
One Road Initiative.
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That's more than a quarter of China's
own domestic coal-fired capacity
own domestic coal-fired capacity
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that is exported abroad.
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So we can see that even though
China is cleaning up at home,
China is cleaning up at home,
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it's exporting some of that pollution
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to other countries,
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and greenhouse gas emissions
simply don't have a passport.
simply don't have a passport.
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So when we're trying
to evaluate this question
to evaluate this question
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of whether or not China
is actually leading,
is actually leading,
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we can see it's still
very much an open debate.
very much an open debate.
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But time is running out.
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I've studied the climate models,
and the outlook is not good.
and the outlook is not good.
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We still have a gap
between current policies
between current policies
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and what needs to happen if we want
to avoid dangerous climate change.
to avoid dangerous climate change.
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Leadership is what we desperately need,
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but it's not coming
from the US, for example.
from the US, for example.
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The US administration last June
announced its intent
announced its intent
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to withdraw from
the Paris Climate Agreement,
the Paris Climate Agreement,
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so now people are looking towards China
to fill that leadership void.
to fill that leadership void.
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So China is very much in the driver's seat
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determining our global
environmental future.
environmental future.
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What they do on carbon trading,
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on clean energy, on air pollution,
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we can learn many lessons.
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One of those lessons is that clean energy
is not just good for the environment,
is not just good for the environment,
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it can save lives
by reducing air pollution.
by reducing air pollution.
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It's also good for the economy.
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We can see that last year,
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China was responsible
for 30 percent of the global growth
for 30 percent of the global growth
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in green jobs.
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The US? Only six.
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So the picture that I just painted for you
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hopefully seems much different
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from those murky,
foggy air quality statistics
foggy air quality statistics
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to a much clearer picture
of China's clean energy.
of China's clean energy.
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And even though China
is headed in the right direction,
is headed in the right direction,
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we know that there's still
a very long road ahead.
a very long road ahead.
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So let me ask you once more:
Is seeing believing?
Is seeing believing?
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Can we trust the data and the statistics
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that show that China's
air quality is coming down
air quality is coming down
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and that its war on coal
is actually having an effect?
is actually having an effect?
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Well, let's take a look
at some of the latest satellite images
at some of the latest satellite images
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of China's solar power installations.
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I want you to look
very closely at this image.
very closely at this image.
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Can you see?
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The proof may just be in the pandas.
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Thank you so much.
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Angel Hsu - Environmental data scientistAngel Hsu is a professor and data geek who applies data-driven methods to solve challenging environmental issues.
Why you should listen
Angel Hsu is a professor, researcher, writer and speaker who spends much of her time analyzing large datasets to develop policy solutions to the world's most pressing environmental problems, such as climate change and air pollution. As she writes: "I work between the push and pull of data science and public policy, and this passion drives me to explore how new technologies, analytical techniques and communication strategies can improve governance and lead to better environmental outcomes in rapidly developing countries like China."
Hsu is jointly appointed at Yale-NUS in Singapore at Yale's School of Forestry and Environmental Studies. She founded and directed Data-Driven Yale, an international team of interdisciplinary researchers, scientists, programmers and visual designers. Under her direction, Data-Driven Yale works collaboratively with scholars and practitioners around the world to collect, transform and communicate information, creating new knowledge and policy tools designed to make the world greener and healthier. Her work has been published in scientific journals like Nature and Nature Climate Change and featured in media like The Economist and the New York Times.
Angel Hsu | Speaker | TED.com