TEDGlobal 2010
Lee Hotz: Inside an Antarctic time machine
Filmed:
Readability: 5.1
623,956 views
Science columnist Lee Hotz describes a remarkable project at WAIS Divide, Antarctica, where a hardy team are drilling into ten-thousand-year-old ice to extract vital data on our changing climate.
Robert Lee Hotz - Journalist
Robert Lee Hotz is the science columnist for the Wall Street Journal, where he writes about cutting-edge research on climate change, cosmology, molecular medicine, the human brain and much more ... He has traveled three times to the South Pole. Full bio
Robert Lee Hotz is the science columnist for the Wall Street Journal, where he writes about cutting-edge research on climate change, cosmology, molecular medicine, the human brain and much more ... He has traveled three times to the South Pole. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Come with me to the bottom of the world,
0
0
3000
00:18
Antarctica,
1
3000
2000
00:20
the highest, driest, windiest,
2
5000
2000
00:22
and yes, coldest region on Earth --
3
7000
3000
00:25
more arid than the Sahara
4
10000
2000
00:27
and, in parts, colder than Mars.
5
12000
2000
00:29
The ice of Antarctica glows
6
14000
2000
00:31
with a light so dazzling,
7
16000
2000
00:33
it blinds the unprotected eye.
8
18000
2000
00:35
Early explorers rubbed cocaine in their eyes
9
20000
2000
00:37
to kill the pain of it.
10
22000
2000
00:39
The weight of the ice is such that the entire continent
11
24000
3000
00:42
sags below sea level, beneath its weight.
12
27000
3000
00:45
Yet, the ice of Antarctica
13
30000
2000
00:47
is a calendar of climate change.
14
32000
2000
00:49
It records the annual rise and fall
15
34000
2000
00:51
of greenhouse gases and temperatures
16
36000
2000
00:53
going back before the onset of the last ice ages.
17
38000
3000
00:56
Nowhere on Earth
18
41000
2000
00:58
offers us such a perfect record.
19
43000
3000
01:01
And here, scientists are drilling
20
46000
2000
01:03
into the past of our planet
21
48000
2000
01:05
to find clues to the future
22
50000
2000
01:07
of climate change.
23
52000
2000
01:09
This past January,
24
54000
2000
01:11
I traveled to a place called WAIS Divide,
25
56000
2000
01:13
about 600 miles from the South Pole.
26
58000
2000
01:15
It is the best place on the planet, many say,
27
60000
3000
01:18
to study the history of climate change.
28
63000
2000
01:20
There, about 45 scientists from the University of Wisconsin,
29
65000
3000
01:23
the Desert Research Institute in Nevada and others
30
68000
3000
01:26
have been working to answer a central question
31
71000
2000
01:28
about global warming.
32
73000
2000
01:30
What is the exact relationship
33
75000
2000
01:32
between levels of greenhouse gases
34
77000
3000
01:35
and planetary temperatures?
35
80000
2000
01:37
It's urgent work. We know that temperatures are rising.
36
82000
3000
01:40
This past May was the warmest worldwide on record.
37
85000
3000
01:43
And we know that levels of greenhouse gases are rising too.
38
88000
3000
01:46
What we don't know
39
91000
2000
01:48
is the exact, precise, immediate
40
93000
2000
01:50
impact of these changes
41
95000
2000
01:52
on natural climate patterns --
42
97000
2000
01:54
winds, ocean currents,
43
99000
2000
01:56
precipitation rates, cloud formation,
44
101000
3000
01:59
things that bear on the health and well-being
45
104000
2000
02:01
of billions of people.
46
106000
3000
02:04
Their entire camp, every item of gear,
47
109000
3000
02:07
was ferried 885 miles
48
112000
2000
02:09
from McMurdo Station,
49
114000
2000
02:11
the main U.S. supply base
50
116000
2000
02:13
on the coast of Antarctica.
51
118000
2000
02:15
WAIS Divide itself though,
52
120000
2000
02:17
is a circle of tents in the snow.
53
122000
3000
02:20
In blizzard winds, the crew sling ropes between the tents
54
125000
3000
02:23
so that people can feel their way safely
55
128000
3000
02:26
to the nearest ice house
56
131000
2000
02:28
and to the nearest outhouse.
57
133000
2000
02:30
It snows so heavily there,
58
135000
2000
02:32
the installation was almost immediately buried.
59
137000
2000
02:34
Indeed, the researchers picked this site
60
139000
3000
02:37
because ice and snow accumulates here
61
142000
2000
02:39
10 times faster than anywhere else in Antarctica.
62
144000
3000
02:42
They have to dig themselves out every day.
63
147000
3000
02:45
It makes for an exotic
64
150000
2000
02:47
and chilly commute.
65
152000
2000
02:49
(Laughter)
66
154000
2000
02:51
But under the surface
67
156000
2000
02:53
is a hive of industrial activity
68
158000
3000
02:56
centered around an eight-million-dollar drill assembly.
69
161000
3000
02:59
Periodically, this drill, like a biopsy needle,
70
164000
3000
03:02
plunges thousands of feet deep into the ice
71
167000
3000
03:05
to extract a marrow of gases
72
170000
2000
03:07
and isotopes for analysis.
73
172000
3000
03:10
Ten times a day, they extract
74
175000
2000
03:12
the 10-foot long cylinder of compressed ice crystals
75
177000
2000
03:14
that contain the unsullied air and trace chemicals
76
179000
3000
03:17
laid down by snow,
77
182000
2000
03:19
season after season for thousands of years.
78
184000
3000
03:24
It's really a time machine.
79
189000
2000
03:26
At the peak of activity earlier this year,
80
191000
3000
03:29
the researchers lowered the drill
81
194000
3000
03:32
an extra hundred feet deeper into the ice every day
82
197000
3000
03:35
and another 365 years
83
200000
2000
03:37
deeper into the past.
84
202000
3000
03:40
Periodically, they remove
85
205000
2000
03:42
a cylinder of ice,
86
207000
2000
03:44
like gamekeepers popping a spent shotgun shell
87
209000
2000
03:46
from the barrel of a drill.
88
211000
3000
03:50
They inspect it, they check it for cracks,
89
215000
2000
03:52
for drill damage, for spalls, for chips.
90
217000
3000
03:56
More importantly,
91
221000
2000
03:58
they prepare it for inspection and analysis
92
223000
2000
04:00
by 27 independent laboratories
93
225000
2000
04:02
in the United States and Europe,
94
227000
2000
04:04
who will examine it for 40 different trace chemicals
95
229000
2000
04:06
related to climate,
96
231000
2000
04:08
some in parts per quadrillion.
97
233000
3000
04:11
Yes, I said that with a Q, quadrillion.
98
236000
3000
04:14
They cut the cylinders up into three-foot sections
99
239000
2000
04:16
for easier handling and shipment
100
241000
2000
04:18
back to these labs,
101
243000
2000
04:20
some 8,000 miles from the drill site.
102
245000
3000
04:23
Each cylinder
103
248000
2000
04:25
is a parfait of time.
104
250000
3000
04:28
This ice formed as snow
105
253000
3000
04:31
15,800 years ago,
106
256000
3000
04:34
when our ancestors were daubing themselves with paint
107
259000
3000
04:37
and considering the radical new technology
108
262000
3000
04:40
of the alphabet.
109
265000
2000
04:43
Bathed in polarized light
110
268000
2000
04:45
and cut in cross-section,
111
270000
2000
04:47
this ancient ice reveals itself
112
272000
2000
04:49
as a mosaic of colors,
113
274000
2000
04:51
each one showing how conditions at depth in the ice
114
276000
3000
04:54
have affected this material
115
279000
3000
04:57
at depths where pressures can reach
116
282000
3000
05:00
a ton per square inch.
117
285000
3000
05:03
Every year, it begins with a snowflake,
118
288000
3000
05:06
and by digging into fresh snow,
119
291000
2000
05:08
we can see how this process is ongoing today.
120
293000
3000
05:11
This wall of undisturbed snow,
121
296000
2000
05:13
back-lit by sunlight,
122
298000
2000
05:15
shows the striations of winter and summer snow,
123
300000
3000
05:18
layer upon layer.
124
303000
2000
05:22
Each storm scours the atmosphere,
125
307000
3000
05:25
washing out dust, soot,
126
310000
3000
05:28
trace chemicals,
127
313000
2000
05:30
and depositing them on the snow pack
128
315000
3000
05:33
year after year,
129
318000
2000
05:35
millennia after millennia,
130
320000
2000
05:37
creating a kind of periodic table of elements
131
322000
2000
05:39
that at this point
132
324000
2000
05:41
is more than 11,000 feet thick.
133
326000
3000
05:44
From this, we can detect an extraordinary number of things.
134
329000
3000
05:49
We can see the calcium
135
334000
2000
05:51
from the world's deserts,
136
336000
2000
05:53
soot from distant wildfires,
137
338000
2000
05:55
methane as an indicator of the strength of a Pacific monsoon,
138
340000
3000
05:58
all wafted on winds from warmer latitudes
139
343000
3000
06:01
to this remote and very cold place.
140
346000
3000
06:04
Most importantly,
141
349000
2000
06:06
these cylinders and this snow
142
351000
2000
06:08
trap air.
143
353000
2000
06:10
Each cylinder is about 10 percent ancient air,
144
355000
3000
06:13
a pristine time capsule
145
358000
2000
06:15
of greenhouse gases -- carbon dioxide,
146
360000
2000
06:17
methane, nitrous oxide --
147
362000
2000
06:19
all unchanged from the day that snow formed
148
364000
3000
06:22
and first fell.
149
367000
2000
06:24
And this is the object of their scrutiny.
150
369000
3000
06:27
But don't we already know
151
372000
2000
06:29
what we need to know about greenhouse gases?
152
374000
2000
06:31
Why do we need to study this anymore?
153
376000
2000
06:33
Don't we already know how they affect temperatures?
154
378000
2000
06:35
Don't we already know the consequences
155
380000
3000
06:38
of a changing climate on our settled civilization?
156
383000
3000
06:41
The truth is, we only know the outlines,
157
386000
3000
06:44
and what we don't completely understand,
158
389000
2000
06:46
we can't properly fix.
159
391000
2000
06:48
Indeed, we run the risk of making things worse.
160
393000
3000
06:51
Consider, the single most successful
161
396000
3000
06:54
international environmental effort of the 20th century,
162
399000
3000
06:57
the Montreal Protocol,
163
402000
2000
06:59
in which the nations of Earth banded together to protect the planet
164
404000
3000
07:02
from the harmful effects of ozone-destroying chemicals
165
407000
3000
07:05
used at that time
166
410000
2000
07:07
in air conditioners, refrigerators and other cooling devices.
167
412000
3000
07:10
We banned those chemicals,
168
415000
3000
07:13
and we replaced them, unknowingly,
169
418000
2000
07:15
with other substances
170
420000
2000
07:17
that, molecule per molecule,
171
422000
2000
07:19
are a hundred times more potent
172
424000
2000
07:21
as heat-trapping, greenhouse gases
173
426000
2000
07:23
than carbon dioxide.
174
428000
3000
07:26
This process requires
175
431000
2000
07:28
extraordinary precautions.
176
433000
3000
07:31
The scientists must insure
177
436000
2000
07:33
that the ice is not contaminated.
178
438000
2000
07:35
Moreover, in this 8,000-mile journey,
179
440000
2000
07:37
they have to insure this ice doesn't melt.
180
442000
2000
07:39
Imagine juggling a snowball across the tropics.
181
444000
3000
07:43
They have to, in fact,
182
448000
2000
07:45
make sure this ice never gets warmer
183
450000
2000
07:47
than about 20 degrees below zero,
184
452000
2000
07:49
otherwise, the key gases inside it will dissipate.
185
454000
3000
07:52
So, in the coldest place on Earth,
186
457000
3000
07:55
they work inside a refrigerator.
187
460000
3000
07:58
As they handle the ice, in fact,
188
463000
2000
08:00
they keep an extra pair of gloves warming in an oven,
189
465000
2000
08:02
so that, when their work gloves freeze
190
467000
2000
08:04
and their fingers stiffen,
191
469000
2000
08:06
they can don a fresh pair.
192
471000
2000
08:08
They work against the clock and against the thermometer.
193
473000
3000
08:11
So far, they've packed up
194
476000
2000
08:13
about 4,500 feet of ice cores
195
478000
4000
08:17
for shipment back to the United States.
196
482000
2000
08:19
This past season,
197
484000
2000
08:21
they manhandled them across the ice
198
486000
2000
08:23
to waiting aircraft.
199
488000
2000
08:25
The 109th Air National Guard
200
490000
3000
08:28
flew the most recent shipment of ice
201
493000
2000
08:30
back to the coast of Antarctica,
202
495000
2000
08:32
where it was boarded onto a freighter,
203
497000
3000
08:35
shipped across the tropics to California,
204
500000
3000
08:38
unloaded, put on a truck,
205
503000
2000
08:40
driven across the desert
206
505000
2000
08:42
to the National Ice Core Laboratory in Denver, Colorado,
207
507000
2000
08:44
where, as we speak,
208
509000
2000
08:46
scientists are now slicing this material up
209
511000
2000
08:48
for samples, for analysis,
210
513000
2000
08:50
to be distributed
211
515000
2000
08:52
to the laboratories around the country
212
517000
2000
08:54
and in Europe.
213
519000
2000
08:57
Antarctica was this planet's
214
522000
3000
09:00
last empty quarter --
215
525000
2000
09:02
the blind spot
216
527000
2000
09:04
in our expanding vision of the world.
217
529000
2000
09:06
Early explorers
218
531000
2000
09:08
sailed off the edge of the map,
219
533000
2000
09:10
and they found a place
220
535000
2000
09:12
where the normal rules of time and temperature
221
537000
2000
09:14
seem suspended.
222
539000
3000
09:18
Here, the ice seems a living presence.
223
543000
3000
09:21
The wind that rubs against it
224
546000
2000
09:23
gives it voice.
225
548000
3000
09:26
It is a voice of experience.
226
551000
3000
09:29
It is a voice we should heed.
227
554000
3000
09:33
Thank you.
228
558000
2000
09:35
(Applause)
229
560000
4000
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robert Lee Hotz - JournalistRobert Lee Hotz is the science columnist for the Wall Street Journal, where he writes about cutting-edge research on climate change, cosmology, molecular medicine, the human brain and much more ... He has traveled three times to the South Pole.
Why you should listen
Robert Lee Hotz is the science columnist for the Wall Street Journal, where he explores the world of new research and its impact on society. In his column, he ranges broadly across the research horizon, from climate change, cosmology and molecular medicine, to evolution, neuroeconomics and new insights into the human brain. Hotz was a Pulitzer Prize finalist in 1986 for his coverage of genetic engineering issues, and again in 2004 for his coverage of the space shuttle Columbia accident. Mr. Hotz shared in The Los Angeles Times’ 1995 Pulitzer Prize for articles about the Northridge Earthquake.
Hotz is a director of the Alicia Patterson Foundation, which funds independent journalism projects around the world, and a distinguished writer in residence at New York University. He is the author of Designs on Life, Exploring the New Frontiers of Human Fertility, and a contributor to several books on research issues.
Robert Lee Hotz | Speaker | TED.com