TEDGlobal 2010
Lee Hotz: Inside an Antarctic time machine
Lee Hotz帶你走入南極的時光機中
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科學專欄作家Lee Hotz 敘述在南極WAIS Divide進行的一個卓越的科技專案, 這專案由一群吃苦耐勞的研究人員,鑽取一萬年前冰層, 抽出其中的物質, 以建立氣候變遷的重要資料.
Robert Lee Hotz - Journalist
Robert Lee Hotz is the science columnist for the Wall Street Journal, where he writes about cutting-edge research on climate change, cosmology, molecular medicine, the human brain and much more ... He has traveled three times to the South Pole. Full bio
Robert Lee Hotz is the science columnist for the Wall Street Journal, where he writes about cutting-edge research on climate change, cosmology, molecular medicine, the human brain and much more ... He has traveled three times to the South Pole. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Come with me to the bottom of the world,
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跟我一起到地球的底端
00:18
Antarctica,
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南極吧
00:20
the highest, driest, windiest,
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南極是地球上最高, 最乾燥, 風最大
00:22
and yes, coldest region on Earth --
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同時也是最冷的地方
00:25
more arid than the Sahara
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它比薩哈拉沙漠還沒生氣
00:27
and, in parts, colder than Mars.
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它的部分地區比火星還要冷
00:29
The ice of Antarctica glows
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南極的冰層發出的
00:31
with a light so dazzling,
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耀眼光芒
00:33
it blinds the unprotected eye.
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足可讓裸眼為之失明
00:35
Early explorers rubbed cocaine in their eyes
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早期進入此區的探險家們必須在眼中擦古柯鹼
00:37
to kill the pain of it.
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來消除疼痛
00:39
The weight of the ice is such that the entire continent
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冰層的重量讓整的南極大陸
00:42
sags below sea level, beneath its weight.
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下陷到海平面之下
00:45
Yet, the ice of Antarctica
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然而,南極冰層
00:47
is a calendar of climate change.
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是全球氣候變遷的一個活日曆
00:49
It records the annual rise and fall
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它完整紀錄每年溫室氣體
00:51
of greenhouse gases and temperatures
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及溫度的上上下下
00:53
going back before the onset of the last ice ages.
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年代可以追溯到上一個冰河時期
00:56
Nowhere on Earth
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地球上沒有其他地方
00:58
offers us such a perfect record.
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可以提供我們如此完美的紀錄
01:01
And here, scientists are drilling
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在這裡，科學家們正用鑽頭
01:03
into the past of our planet
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鑽進地球的過往歷史
01:05
to find clues to the future
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以便發現未來氣候變遷
01:07
of climate change.
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的線索
01:09
This past January,
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今年一月時
01:11
I traveled to a place called WAIS Divide,
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我到"南極洲西部冰原區(WAIS Divide)"這地方旅遊
01:13
about 600 miles from the South Pole.
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它距離南極大約600英哩
01:15
It is the best place on the planet, many say,
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很多人都認為這是地球上
01:18
to study the history of climate change.
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最適合研究氣候變遷的地方
01:20
There, about 45 scientists from the University of Wisconsin,
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在那裏, 有大約45位科學家, 他們來自威斯康辛大學
01:23
the Desert Research Institute in Nevada and others
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內華達沙漠研究所及其他機構
01:26
have been working to answer a central question
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他們一直致力於探討一個全球暖化
01:28
about global warming.
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的重要問題 那就是
01:30
What is the exact relationship
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溫室氣體程度
01:32
between levels of greenhouse gases
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和地球溫度之間
01:35
and planetary temperatures?
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存在的真正關聯?
01:37
It's urgent work. We know that temperatures are rising.
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這工作有其急迫性.我們都知道全球溫度一直在上升
01:40
This past May was the warmest worldwide on record.
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今年五月達到歷史新高
01:43
And we know that levels of greenhouse gases are rising too.
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我們也知道溫室氣體的含量也在升高
01:46
What we don't know
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但我們並不知道
01:48
is the exact, precise, immediate
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這些變化對於
01:50
impact of these changes
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自然氣候型態
01:52
on natural climate patterns --
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真正 精確 及立即的衝擊是甚麼
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winds, ocean currents,
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這些氣候型態包括風流, 海流♪
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precipitation rates, cloud formation,
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降雨率, 雲的形成等
01:59
things that bear on the health and well-being
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都是攸關幾十億人健康
02:01
of billions of people.
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及福利的事項
02:04
Their entire camp, every item of gear,
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這個營隊的所有帳篷及每一種用品
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was ferried 885 miles
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都是由885英里
02:09
from McMurdo Station,
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外的McMurdo營站空運過來的
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the main U.S. supply base
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McMurdo營站是美國位於南極海岸
02:13
on the coast of Antarctica.
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的主要供應基地
02:15
WAIS Divide itself though,
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至於南極洲西部冰原區則是
02:17
is a circle of tents in the snow.
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由處於風雪中，圍成圓形的帳篷群所組成
02:20
In blizzard winds, the crew sling ropes between the tents
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在大風雪中 組員們必須藉著連在帳篷間的繩索
02:23
so that people can feel their way safely
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才能在最近的戶外廁所
02:26
to the nearest ice house
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及最近的冰房間
02:28
and to the nearest outhouse.
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安全的穿梭
02:30
It snows so heavily there,
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那邊風雪實在太大了
02:32
the installation was almost immediately buried.
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所有的設備幾乎都立刻被風雪所淹沒
02:34
Indeed, the researchers picked this site
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事實上 研究者之所以會選擇這個地點
02:37
because ice and snow accumulates here
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正因為在這裡累積冰雪的速度
02:39
10 times faster than anywhere else in Antarctica.
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比南極任何地方快十倍
02:42
They have to dig themselves out every day.
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工作人員必須每天由雪堆中把自己挖出來
02:45
It makes for an exotic
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這真是一條很奇異
02:47
and chilly commute.
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且寒冷的通道
02:49
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
02:51
But under the surface
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在地表之下
02:53
is a hive of industrial activity
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積極的工業探索活動正如火如荼的進行著
02:56
centered around an eight-million-dollar drill assembly.
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他們圍繞著一台八百萬美元的鑽機
02:59
Periodically, this drill, like a biopsy needle,
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每隔一段時間，這台鑽機就像切片檢查的針一樣
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plunges thousands of feet deep into the ice
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深入上千英尺的冰層中
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to extract a marrow of gases
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抽取其中所含的氣體
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and isotopes for analysis.
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和同位素來作分析
03:10
Ten times a day, they extract
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每天十次，他們由
03:12
the 10-foot long cylinder of compressed ice crystals
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十英尺長的壓縮冰晶柱萃取其中
03:14
that contain the unsullied air and trace chemicals
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未經污染的氣體和微量化學物質
03:17
laid down by snow,
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這些物質埋在
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season after season for thousands of years.
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數千年來累積的雪層下
03:24
It's really a time machine.
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它就像一台時間機器
03:26
At the peak of activity earlier this year,
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在今年初的探索高峰期時
03:29
the researchers lowered the drill
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研究者們每天把鑽頭再往冰層中
03:32
an extra hundred feet deeper into the ice every day
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多鑽探了一百英尺
03:35
and another 365 years
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那意謂著又挖進
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deeper into the past.
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更早的365年的歷史
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Periodically, they remove
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他們定期地將冰柱
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a cylinder of ice,
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由鑽頭筒中取下
03:44
like gamekeepers popping a spent shotgun shell
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就像獵場看守員將已經擊發的子彈殼
03:46
from the barrel of a drill.
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退下一樣。
03:50
They inspect it, they check it for cracks,
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研究員檢查冰柱是否有裂縫，
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for drill damage, for spalls, for chips.
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有無被鑽頭刮傷產生破塊等。
03:56
More importantly,
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更為重要的是，
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they prepare it for inspection and analysis
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他們為位於美國和歐洲的
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by 27 independent laboratories
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27個獨立實驗室
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in the United States and Europe,
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提供樣品以進行檢測和分析
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who will examine it for 40 different trace chemicals
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這些實驗室將檢測與氣候相關的四十種不同
04:06
related to climate,
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的微量化學物，
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some in parts per quadrillion.
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有的含量僅為百萬的四次方（一千萬億）之一。
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Yes, I said that with a Q, quadrillion.
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是的，我是指這個百萬的四次乘方（一千萬億）。
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They cut the cylinders up into three-foot sections
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他們將冰柱分割成為三英尺的小段
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for easier handling and shipment
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以方便冰柱處理和搬運
04:18
back to these labs,
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到離鑽頭點約8000英里外
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some 8,000 miles from the drill site.
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的實驗室
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Each cylinder
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每個冰柱都是
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is a parfait of time.
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某段時間的真實片段。
04:28
This ice formed as snow
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這些冰塊是大約15800年
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15,800 years ago,
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前的雪所形成，
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when our ancestors were daubing themselves with paint
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那個時候人類的祖先還在玩塗料
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and considering the radical new technology
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及思考著關於文字的
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of the alphabet.
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先進技術。
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Bathed in polarized light
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在極光的浸沐下
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and cut in cross-section,
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古冰塊的截面
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this ancient ice reveals itself
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展示出了某種
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as a mosaic of colors,
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馬賽克色彩，
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each one showing how conditions at depth in the ice
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每一個都展現出冰塊中的深度
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have affected this material
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如何影響了這種材料
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at depths where pressures can reach
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在不同深度時 壓力可達到
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a ton per square inch.
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每平方英寸一噸。
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Every year, it begins with a snowflake,
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每年都下雪，
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and by digging into fresh snow,
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由鑽探進入最新鮮的雪層，
05:08
we can see how this process is ongoing today.
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今天我們可以了解這個過程是如何進行的。
05:11
This wall of undisturbed snow,
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在未經開採的雪層下，
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back-lit by sunlight,
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太陽光所造成的背光
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shows the striations of winter and summer snow,
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映射出冬雪和夏雪的條紋，
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layer upon layer.
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一層接著一層。
05:22
Each storm scours the atmosphere,
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每次暴風雪席捲著大氣，
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washing out dust, soot,
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沖洗掉灰塵，煤煙，
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trace chemicals,
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微量化學物，
05:30
and depositing them on the snow pack
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並將其沉澱於雪層上
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year after year,
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年復一年，
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millennia after millennia,
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成千上萬年，
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creating a kind of periodic table of elements
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形成了本地
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that at this point
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超過11000英尺厚的雪層中
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is more than 11,000 feet thick.
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的這種時代週期表
05:44
From this, we can detect an extraordinary number of things.
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從冰柱中，我們可以檢測到種類繁多的物質。
05:49
We can see the calcium
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我們可以找到
05:51
from the world's deserts,
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來自世界沙漠的鈣，
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soot from distant wildfires,
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來自遙遠野火的煤煙，
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methane as an indicator of the strength of a Pacific monsoon,
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以及被當作太平洋雨季的指示劑的甲烷等，
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all wafted on winds from warmer latitudes
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它們都從較溫暖的緯度
06:01
to this remote and very cold place.
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飄到這遙遠寒冷的地方
06:04
Most importantly,
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最為重要的是，
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these cylinders and this snow
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這些冰柱和雪層
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trap air.
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可捕捉氣體。
06:10
Each cylinder is about 10 percent ancient air,
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每個冰柱大約含有10%的古代氣體
06:13
a pristine time capsule
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是溫室氣體最原始的
06:15
of greenhouse gases -- carbon dioxide,
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時間膠囊---二氧化碳，
06:17
methane, nitrous oxide --
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甲烷和氧化氮--
06:19
all unchanged from the day that snow formed
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從雪形成落下的那天開始
06:22
and first fell.
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便未曾發生變化。
06:24
And this is the object of their scrutiny.
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這就是這些研究要仔細調查的。
06:27
But don't we already know
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但是關於溫室氣體該知道的資訊
06:29
what we need to know about greenhouse gases?
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我們不是都已經瞭如指掌的嗎?
06:31
Why do we need to study this anymore?
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為什麼我們還需要進一步研究它呢？
06:33
Don't we already know how they affect temperatures?
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我們不是已經知道它如何影響氣溫嗎？
06:35
Don't we already know the consequences
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我們不是已經都知道變化的氣候 所帶來的結果
06:38
of a changing climate on our settled civilization?
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將如何影響我們的文明社會嗎？
06:41
The truth is, we only know the outlines,
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事實是，我們僅僅知道其大致輪廓，
06:44
and what we don't completely understand,
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並非是完全徹底理解，
06:46
we can't properly fix.
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我們不但沒有能力進行修復。
06:48
Indeed, we run the risk of making things worse.
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事實上，我們還冒著把事情弄得更糟的風險。
06:51
Consider, the single most successful
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舉個例子吧, 20世紀最為成功的
06:54
international environmental effort of the 20th century,
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國際環境保護條例，
06:57
the Montreal Protocol,
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蒙特利公約
06:59
in which the nations of Earth banded together to protect the planet
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其目的在聯合世界各國以保護地球
07:02
from the harmful effects of ozone-destroying chemicals
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免於受到當時使用於空調，電冰箱
07:05
used at that time
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和其它冷卻設備中
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in air conditioners, refrigerators and other cooling devices.
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的臭氧破壞化學物的影響。
07:10
We banned those chemicals,
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我們禁止這些化學物的使用
07:13
and we replaced them, unknowingly,
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卻無知的用
07:15
with other substances
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另外一種物質替換,
07:17
that, molecule per molecule,
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但事實上新物質分子
07:19
are a hundred times more potent
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就其捕捉的太陽熱能
07:21
as heat-trapping, greenhouse gases
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都比二氧化碳
07:23
than carbon dioxide.
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強一百倍
07:26
This process requires
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這樣的過程需要
07:28
extraordinary precautions.
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特別的謹慎預防。
07:31
The scientists must insure
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科學家們必須確保
07:33
that the ice is not contaminated.
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冰柱未受到污染。
07:35
Moreover, in this 8,000-mile journey,
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並且在以後未來長達8000英里的旅途中，
07:37
they have to insure this ice doesn't melt.
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他們必須得確保冰柱不會融化。
07:39
Imagine juggling a snowball across the tropics.
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想像一下夾著雪球穿過熱帶地區吧。
07:43
They have to, in fact,
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他們必須
07:45
make sure this ice never gets warmer
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確保冰柱溫度不會
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than about 20 degrees below zero,
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高於零下20度，
07:49
otherwise, the key gases inside it will dissipate.
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否則冰柱中的關鍵氣體就會揮發。
07:52
So, in the coldest place on Earth,
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因此在地球最為寒冷的地區
07:55
they work inside a refrigerator.
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他們實質上是在冰箱裏面工作
07:58
As they handle the ice, in fact,
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事實上當他們處理冰柱的同時，
08:00
they keep an extra pair of gloves warming in an oven,
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另外一雙手套是置於烤箱中的，
08:02
so that, when their work gloves freeze
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當他們帶在手上的手套凍結，
08:04
and their fingers stiffen,
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手指變得僵硬時，
08:06
they can don a fresh pair.
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他們就換上烤暖的那雙手套。
08:08
They work against the clock and against the thermometer.
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他們的工作，是必須與時間和溫差賽跑的
08:11
So far, they've packed up
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目前為止，他們已經堆積了
08:13
about 4,500 feet of ice cores
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大約4500英尺的冰雪，
08:17
for shipment back to the United States.
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這些冰雪都將會被運回美國。
08:19
This past season,
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在剛過去的季節中，
08:21
they manhandled them across the ice
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他們將這些冰雪搬運出冰層
08:23
to waiting aircraft.
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以等待空運。
08:25
The 109th Air National Guard
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109號空軍護衛隊
08:28
flew the most recent shipment of ice
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將最近的冰雪
08:30
back to the coast of Antarctica,
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運到 南極洲海岸，
08:32
where it was boarded onto a freighter,
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在這裡將會被搬上貨輪，
08:35
shipped across the tropics to California,
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穿過熱帶以來到加州，
08:38
unloaded, put on a truck,
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卸貨並裝運上貨車，
08:40
driven across the desert
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穿過沙漠
08:42
to the National Ice Core Laboratory in Denver, Colorado,
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抵達位於丹佛(科羅拉多州)的國家冰雪中心研究室
08:44
where, as we speak,
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在那裡，正於我們所說的那樣，
08:46
scientists are now slicing this material up
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科學家將材料切成片
08:48
for samples, for analysis,
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以製成用於分析的樣品，
08:50
to be distributed
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再將樣品分送到 。
08:52
to the laboratories around the country
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全國各地和歐洲 的
08:54
and in Europe.
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實驗室裡
08:57
Antarctica was this planet's
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南極洲是
09:00
last empty quarter --
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人類不斷擴張
09:02
the blind spot
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的世界視野下
09:04
in our expanding vision of the world.
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地球的最後一個未被探研的盲點。
09:06
Early explorers
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早期的探險家們
09:08
sailed off the edge of the map,
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航海來到地圖的邊緣地帶
09:10
and they found a place
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他們找到一個
09:12
where the normal rules of time and temperature
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一般的時間和溫度規則
09:14
seem suspended.
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似乎都暫時失效的地區。
09:18
Here, the ice seems a living presence.
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在這裡，冰雪就如同活生生的存在。
09:21
The wind that rubs against it
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暴風雪不斷地侵蝕著南極洲，
09:23
gives it voice.
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賜於它獨特的魅力。
09:26
It is a voice of experience.
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這是一種有魅力的體驗。
09:29
It is a voice we should heed.
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而這正是我們所需要的嗓音。
09:33
Thank you.
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謝謝大家
09:35
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robert Lee Hotz - JournalistRobert Lee Hotz is the science columnist for the Wall Street Journal, where he writes about cutting-edge research on climate change, cosmology, molecular medicine, the human brain and much more ... He has traveled three times to the South Pole.
Why you should listen
Robert Lee Hotz is the science columnist for the Wall Street Journal, where he explores the world of new research and its impact on society. In his column, he ranges broadly across the research horizon, from climate change, cosmology and molecular medicine, to evolution, neuroeconomics and new insights into the human brain. Hotz was a Pulitzer Prize finalist in 1986 for his coverage of genetic engineering issues, and again in 2004 for his coverage of the space shuttle Columbia accident. Mr. Hotz shared in The Los Angeles Times’ 1995 Pulitzer Prize for articles about the Northridge Earthquake.
Hotz is a director of the Alicia Patterson Foundation, which funds independent journalism projects around the world, and a distinguished writer in residence at New York University. He is the author of Designs on Life, Exploring the New Frontiers of Human Fertility, and a contributor to several books on research issues.
Robert Lee Hotz | Speaker | TED.com