TEDWomen 2010
Naomi Klein: Addicted to risk
Naomi Klein: Ovisni o riziku
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Nekoliko dana prije ovog govora, novinarka Naomi Klein je bila na brodu u Meksičkom zaljevu i promatrala katastrofalne posljedice riskantnog crpljenja nafte British Petroleuma. Naša društva su postala ovisna o ekstremnom riziku u potrazi za novom energijom, novim financijskim instrumentima i drugim... i suviše često, nama kasnije ostaje počistiti nered. Klein postavlja pitanje: koji je rezervni plan?
Naomi Klein - Journalist, activist
Naomi Klein is a public intellectual, journalist and activist. Full bio
Naomi Klein is a public intellectual, journalist and activist. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
I just did something I've never done before.
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Upravo sam učinila nešto što nisam učinila nikada prije.
00:18
I spent a week at sea on a research vessel.
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Provela sam tjedan na moru na istraživačkom plovilu.
00:21
Now I'm not a scientist,
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Nisam znanstvenica,
00:23
but I was accompanying a remarkable scientific team
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ali sam pratila izuzetni znanstveni tim
00:26
from the University of South Florida
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sa Svečilišta južna Florida
00:28
who have been tracking the travels of BP's oil
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koji prati razlijevanje nafte British Petroleuma
00:31
in the Gulf of Mexico.
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u Meksičkom zaljevu.
00:33
This is the boat we were on, by the way.
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Ovo je brod na kojemu smo bili.
00:36
The scientists I was with
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Znanstvenici s kojima sam bila
00:38
were not studying the effect of the oil and dispersants on the big stuff --
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nisu proučavali učinke nafte i disperzanata na velike životinje --
00:41
the birds, the turtles,
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ptice, kornjače,
00:43
the dolphins, the glamorous stuff.
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delfine, glamurozne stvari.
00:45
They're looking at the really little stuff
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Oni proučavaju jako male stvari
00:48
that gets eaten by the slightly less little stuff
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koje bivaju pojedene od nešto manje sitnih životinja,
00:51
that eventually gets eaten by the big stuff.
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a koje naposlijetku pojedu velike životinje.
00:54
And what they're finding
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I ono što otkrivaju je to
00:56
is that even trace amounts of oil and dispersants
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da nafta i disperzanti i kad su samo u tragovima
00:59
can be highly toxic to phytoplankton,
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mogu biti vrlo toksični za fitoplanktone,
01:01
which is very bad news,
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što je vrlo loša vijest,
01:03
because so much life depends on it.
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jer toliko mnogo oblika života ovisi o njima.
01:06
So contrary to what we heard a few months back
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Dakle, suprotno onome što smo čuli prije par mjeseci
01:08
about how 75 percent of that oil
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kako je 75% te nafte
01:10
sort of magically disappeared
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na nekakav čarobni način nestalo
01:12
and we didn't have to worry about it,
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i ne moramo o tome brinuti,
01:14
this disaster is still unfolding.
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ova katastrofa se odvija i dalje.
01:17
It's still working its way up the food chain.
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Još uvijek napreduje uzlazno u hranidbenom lancu.
01:20
Now this shouldn't come as a surprise to us.
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Ovo nam ne bi trebalo predstavljati iznenađenje.
01:23
Rachel Carson --
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Rachel Carson --
01:25
the godmother of modern environmentalism --
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kuma modernog pokreta za zaštitu okoliša --
01:27
warned us about this very thing
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baš nas je na ovo upozorila
01:29
back in 1962.
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još tamo 1962.
01:31
She pointed out that the "control men" --
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Istaknula je da kontrolori --
01:33
as she called them --
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kako ih je nazvala --
01:35
who carpet-bombed towns and fields
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koji su gradove i polja prekrili bombama
01:37
with toxic insecticides like DDT,
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s toksičnim insekticidima poput DDT-ja,
01:40
were only trying to kill the little stuff, the insects,
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samo pokušavaju ubiti sitne stvari, kukce,
01:43
not the birds.
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ne ptice.
01:45
But they forgot this:
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Ali su zaboravili:
01:47
the fact that birds dine on grubs,
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činjenicu da se ptice hrane larvama,
01:49
that robins eat lots of worms
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da crvendać jede puno crva
01:51
now saturated with DDT.
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koji su sada zasićeni DDT-jem.
01:54
And so, robin eggs failed to hatch,
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I tako, crvendaćeva jajašca se nisu izlegla,
01:57
songbirds died en masse,
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ptice pjevice su masovno ugibale,
01:59
towns fell silent.
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i gradovi utihnuli.
02:01
Thus the title "Silent Spring."
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Otuda naziv „Tiho proljeće".
02:05
I've been trying to pinpoint
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Pokušala sam odrediti
02:07
what keeps drawing me back to the Gulf of Mexico,
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što me to neprekidno vraća u Meksički zaljev,
02:09
because I'm Canadian,
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jer sam Kanađanka,
02:11
and I can draw no ancestral ties.
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i nemam ondje predaka.
02:13
And I think what it is
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Mislim da je razlog taj
02:15
is I don't think we have fully come to terms
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što ne vjerujem da smo u potpunosti shvatili
02:18
with the meaning of this disaster,
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značenje ove katastrofe,
02:21
with what it meant to witness a hole
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što znači svjedočiti pukotini
02:24
ripped in our world,
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probušenoj u našem svijetu,
02:26
with what it meant to watch the contents of the Earth
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što znači promatrati utrobu Zemlje
02:29
gush forth on live TV,
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kako šiklja uživo na televiziji
02:31
24 hours a day,
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24 sata dnevno,
02:33
for months.
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mjesecima.
02:35
After telling ourselves for so long
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Nakon što smo si tako dugo govorili
02:38
that our tools and technology can control nature,
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da naši alati i tehnologija može kontrolirati prirodu,
02:41
suddenly we were face-to-face
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iznenada smo se našli licem u lice
02:43
with our weakness,
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s našom slabošću,
02:45
with our lack of control,
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našim nedostatkom kontrole,
02:47
as the oil burst out
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dok se nafta izlijevala
02:49
of every attempt to contain it --
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iz svakog našeg pokušaja da je zadržimo --
02:52
"top hats," "top kills"
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operacije "Top hats", "Top kills"
02:54
and, most memorably, the "junk shot" --
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i, nezaboravno, ubrizgavanje smeća --
02:56
the bright idea
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mudra ideja o
02:58
of firing old tires and golf balls
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ispaljivanju starih guma i loptica za golf
03:01
down that hole in the world.
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niz tu pukotinu u svijetu.
03:03
But even more striking
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No, još upadljiviji
03:05
than the ferocious power emanating from that well
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od silovite snage koja je izvirala iz tog bunara,
03:08
was the recklessness
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bio je nemar
03:10
with which that power was unleashed --
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kojim je ta sila puštena --
03:12
the carelessness, the lack of planning
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neopreznost, nepostojanje planiranja,
03:15
that characterized the operation
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koji su karakterizirali operaciju
03:17
from drilling to clean-up.
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od bušenja do čišćenja.
03:20
If there is one thing
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Ako je nešto postalo jasno
03:22
BP's watery improv act made clear,
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akcijom British Petroleuma da popravi kvalitetu vode,
03:25
it is that, as a culture,
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onda je to to da smo, kao kultura,
03:27
we have become far too willing to gamble
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postali puno spremniji kockati se
03:29
with things that are precious
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sa stvarima koje su dragocjene
03:31
and irreplaceable,
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i nezamjenjive --
03:33
and to do so without a back-up plan,
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i činiti to bez pričuvnog plana,
03:36
without an exit strategy.
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bez izlazne strategije.
03:38
And BP was hardly
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A BP teško da je bio
03:40
our first experience of this in recent years.
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naše prvo ovakvo iskustvo posljednjih godina.
03:42
Our leaders barrel into wars,
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Naši lideri jurcaju u ratove,
03:44
telling themselves happy stories
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pričajući si sretne pričice
03:46
about cakewalks and welcome parades.
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o lakoći i paradnim dočecima,
03:49
Then, it is years of deadly damage control,
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a zatim slijede godine kontrole štete,
03:52
Frankensteins of sieges and surges
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Frankensteini opsada i napada
03:55
and counter-insurgencies,
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i operacija protiv pokreta otpora,
03:57
and once again, no exit strategy.
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i ponovno, bez izlazne strategije.
04:00
Our financial wizards routinely fall victim
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Naši financijski čarobnjaci rutinski postaju žrtvama
04:03
to similar overconfidence,
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slične pretjerane samouvjerenosti,
04:05
convincing themselves that the latest bubble
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uvjeravajući se da je posljednji mjehur
04:07
is a new kind of market --
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nova vrsta tržišta --
04:09
the kind that never goes down.
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vrsta koja nikad ne pada.
04:11
And when it inevitably does,
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A kad neizbježno padne,
04:13
the best and the brightest
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najbolji i najpametniji
04:15
reach for the financial equivalent of the junk shot --
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posežu za financijskim ekvivalentom ubrizgavanja smeća --
04:17
in this case, throwing massive amounts
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u ovom slučaju, ubacujući ogromne količine
04:19
of much-needed public money
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silno potrebnog javnog novca
04:21
down a very different kind of hole.
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niz jako različitu vrstu rupe.
04:24
As with BP, the hole does get plugged,
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Kao i s BP-om, rupa se doista začepi,
04:26
at least temporarily,
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barem privremeno,
04:28
but not before
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ali ne prije nego što
04:30
exacting a tremendous price.
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ispostavi strahovitu cijenu.
04:32
We have to figure out
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Moramo dokučiti
04:34
why we keep letting this happen,
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zašto dopuštamo da se ovo događa,
04:36
because we are in the midst
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jer se nalazimo u središtu onoga
04:38
of what may be our highest-stakes gamble of all --
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što bi moglo biti klađenje s najvećim ulozima ikada:
04:41
deciding what to do, or not to do,
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odluka o tome što učiniti, ili ne učiniti,
04:43
about climate change.
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u vezi klimatskih promjena.
04:45
Now as you know,
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Kao što znate,
04:47
a great deal of time is spent,
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puno vremena se troši,
04:49
in this country and around the world,
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u ovoj zemlji i širom svijeta,
04:51
inside the climate debate,
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u debati o klimi.
04:53
on the question of, "What if the IPC scientists
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Na pitanje: „Što ako su IPC znanstvenici
04:56
are all wrong?"
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svi u krivu?"
04:58
Now a far more relevant question --
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Sada imamo puno važnije pitanje --
05:00
as MIT physicist Evelyn Fox Keller puts it --
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kako ga fizičarka s MIT-a Evelyn Fox Keller postavlja --
05:03
is, "What if those scientists are right?"
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koje glasi, "Što ako su ti znanstvenici u pravu?"
05:08
Given the stakes, the climate crisis
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S obzirom na uloge, klimatska kriza
05:10
clearly calls for us to act
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jasno nas poziva na djelovanje
05:12
based on the precautionary principle --
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temeljeno na načelu opreza --
05:15
the theory that holds
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teoriji koja drži
05:17
that when human health and the environment
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da kad su čovjekovo zdravlje i okoliš
05:19
are significantly at risk
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izloženi značajnom riziku
05:21
and when the potential damage is irreversible,
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i kad je potencijalna šteta nenadoknadiva,
05:24
we cannot afford to wait
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ne možemo si dopustiti da čekamo
05:26
for perfect scientific certainty.
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savršenu znanstvenu izvjesnost.
05:28
Better to err on the side of caution.
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Bolje je pogriješiti iz pretjeranog opreza.
05:31
More overt, the burden of proving
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Još jasnije, teret dokazivanja
05:33
that a practice is safe
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da je neka praksa sigurna
05:35
should not be placed on the public that would be harmed,
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ne treba se prebacivati na javnost koja bi bila pogođena,
05:38
but rather on the industry that stands to profit.
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već prije na industriju koja treba profitirati.
05:42
But climate policy in the wealthy world --
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Ali klimatska politika u bogatom svijetu --
05:44
to the extent that such a thing exists --
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u onoj mjeri u kojoj ona uopće postoji --
05:47
is not based on precaution,
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ne temelji se na oprezu,
05:49
but rather on cost-benefit analysis --
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već na analizi troškova i koristi --
05:52
finding the course of action that economists believe
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pronalaženju pravca aktivnosti za koji ekonomisti vjeruju
05:54
will have the least impact
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da će imati najmanji učinak
05:56
on our GDP.
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na naš BDP.
05:58
So rather than asking, as precaution would demand,
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Pa, umjesto da pitamo, kako bi nam oprez nalagao,
06:01
what can we do as quickly as possible
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što možemo učiniti čim prije
06:03
to avoid potential catastrophe,
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da izbjegnemo potencijalnu katastrofu,
06:06
we ask bizarre questions like this:
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postavljamo bizarna pitanja poput ovih:
06:09
"What is the latest possible moment we can wait
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"Koji je najkasniji mogući trenutak do kojeg možemo čekati
06:12
before we begin seriously lowering emissions?
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prije no što počnemo ozbiljno smanjivati emisije?
06:15
Can we put this off till 2020,
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Možemo li to odgoditi do 2020.,
06:17
2030, 2050?"
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2030., 2050.?"
06:20
Or we ask,
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Ili pitamo,
06:22
"How much hotter can we let the planet get
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"Koliko još zagrijavanja planeta možemo dopustiti,
06:24
and still survive?
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a da još uvijek preživimo?
06:26
Can we go with two degrees, three degrees, or --
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Možemo li proći s dva stupnja, tri stupnja, ili --
06:28
where we're currently going --
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kamo trenutno idemo --
06:30
four degrees Celsius?"
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s četiri stupnja Celzija?"
06:32
And by the way,
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I, usput,
06:34
the assumption that we can safely control
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pretpostavka da možemo sigurno kontrolirati
06:36
the Earth's awesomely complex climate system
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nepojmljivo složeni zemaljski klimatski sustav
06:39
as if it had a thermostat,
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kao da postoji nekakav termostat,
06:41
making the planet not too hot, not too cold,
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koji ne dopušta planetu da bude pretopao ili prehladan,
06:44
but just right -- sort of Goldilocks style --
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nego baš kakav treba – u stilu Zlatokose --
06:47
this is pure fantasy,
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čista je fantazija,
06:49
and it's not coming from the climate scientists.
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i ne dolazi od znanstvenika koji se bave klimom;
06:52
It's coming from the economists
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dolazi od ekonomista
06:54
imposing their mechanistic thinking
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koji svoje mehanicističko razmišljanje
06:56
on the science.
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naturaju znanosti.
06:58
The fact is that we simply don't know
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Činjenica je da naprosto ne znamo
07:00
when the warming that we create
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kada će zagrijavanje koje proizvodimo
07:02
will be utterly overwhelmed
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biti u potpunosti nadjačano
07:04
by feedback loops.
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petljama povratnih informacija.
07:06
So once again,
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Pa, još jednom,
07:08
why do we take these crazy risks
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zašto se upuštamo u ovako lude rizike
07:10
with the precious?
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s onim što nam je dragocjeno?
07:12
A range of explanations
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Raspon objašnjenja
07:14
may be popping into your mind by now,
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do sada vam se možda rađa u glavi,
07:16
like "greed."
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poput, pohlepe.
07:18
This is a popular explanation, and there's lots of truth to it,
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Ovo je popularno objašnjenje i u njemu je puno istine.
07:21
because taking big risks, as we all know,
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Jer prihvaćanje velikih rizika, kao što svi znamo,
07:24
pays a lot of money.
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donosi puno novca.
07:26
Another explanation that you often hear for recklessness
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Drugo objašnjenje koje često čujemo za neopreznost
07:28
is hubris.
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je samouvjerenost.
07:30
And greed and hubris
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A pohlepa i samouvjerenost
07:32
are intimately intertwined
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su intimno isprepleteni
07:34
when it comes to recklessness.
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kad je riječ o neopreznosti.
07:36
For instance, if you happen to be a 35-year-old banker
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Na primjer, ako ste 35-godišnji bankar
07:39
taking home 100 times more
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koji zarađuje 100 puta više
07:41
than a brain surgeon,
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od kirurga za mozak,
07:43
then you need a narrative,
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tada vam treba naracija,
07:45
you need a story
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treba vam priča
07:47
that makes that disparity okay.
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koja objašnjava zašto je ta razlika u redu.
07:49
And you actually don't have a lot of options.
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I nemate, u stvari, puno mogućnosti.
07:52
You're either an incredibly good scammer,
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Ili ste nevjerojatno uspješan prevarant,
07:55
and you're getting away with it -- you gamed the system --
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i uspijevate u tome – provalili ste sustav --
07:57
or you're some kind of boy genius,
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ili ste nekakav dečko genij,
07:59
the likes of which the world has never seen.
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kakvoga svijet još nije vidio.
08:02
Now both of these options -- the boy genius and the scammer --
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Obje mogućnosti – genijalac i varalica --
08:05
are going to make you vastly overconfident
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učinit će vas silno presamouvjerenim
08:07
and therefore more prone
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i time spremnijim
08:09
to taking even bigger risks in the future.
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na poduzimanje još većih rizika u budućnosti.
08:13
By the way, Tony Hayward, the former CEO of BP,
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Usput, Tony Hayward, bivši izvršni direktor BP-a,
08:16
had a plaque on his desk
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na stolu je držao plaketu
08:18
inscribed with this inspirational slogan:
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s ovim inspirirajućim sloganom:
08:20
"What would you attempt to do
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"Što biste pokušali učiniti
08:22
if you knew you could not fail?"
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kad biste znali da ne možete ne uspjeti?"
08:25
Now this is actually a popular plaque,
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Ovo je doista popularna plaketa,
08:28
and this is a crowd of overachievers,
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a ovo je gomila vrlo uspješnih,
08:30
so I'm betting that some of you have this plaque.
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pa se kladim da i neki od vas imaju tu plaketu.
08:33
Don't feel ashamed.
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Nemojte se sramiti.
08:35
Putting fear of failure out of your mind
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Potisnuti strah od neuspjeha iz svijesti
08:37
can be a very good thing
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može biti vrlo dobra stvar
08:39
if you're training for a triathlon
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ako trenirate za trijatlon
08:41
or preparing to give a TEDTalk,
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ili pripremate svoj TEDTalk,
08:44
but personally, I think people with the power
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no osobno, mislim da ljudi koji imaju moć
08:46
to detonate our economy and ravage our ecology
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detonirati našu ekonomiju i opustošiti ekologiju
08:49
would do better having
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prije trebaju imati
08:51
a picture of Icarus hanging from the wall,
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sliku Ikara na svom zidu,
08:53
because -- maybe not that one in particular --
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jer – možda ne baš ovu --
08:56
but I want them thinking about the possibility of failure
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ali želim da oni razmišljaju o mogućnosti neuspjeha
08:59
all of the time.
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svo vrijeme.
09:01
So we have greed,
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Tako imamo pohlepu,
09:03
we've got overconfidence/hubris,
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imamo samouvjerenost/aroganciju,
09:05
but since we're here at TEDWomen,
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no kako smo ovdje na TEDWomen,
09:07
let's consider one other factor
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razmotrimo još jedan činitelj
09:09
that could be contributing in some small way
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koji bi mogao pridonijeti barem malo
09:11
to societal recklessness.
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društvenom nemaru.
09:15
Now I'm not going to belabor this point,
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Neću puno obrazlagati ovaj činitelj,
09:17
but studies do show that, as investors,
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ali studije pokazuju da su, kao ulagači,
09:19
women are much less prone
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žene puno manje podložne
09:21
to taking reckless risks than men,
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poduzimanju neopreznih rizika od muškaraca,
09:24
precisely because, as we've already heard,
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točno zato što, kako smo već čuli,
09:26
women tend not to suffer from overconfidence
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žene ne pate od pretjeranog samopouzdanja
09:29
in the same way that men do.
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na isti način kao muškarci.
09:31
So it turns out
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Pa ispada
09:33
that being paid less and praised less
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da manje plaće i manje hvale
09:35
has its upsides --
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ima svojih prednosti --
09:37
for society at least.
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barem za društvo.
09:39
The flipside of this
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Naličje medalje je
09:41
is that constantly being told
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da neprekidno uvjeravanje
09:43
that you are gifted, chosen
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da ste nadareni, odabrani
09:45
and born to rule
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i rođeni vladati
09:47
has distinct societal downsides.
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predstavlja mane za društvo.
09:50
And this problem -- call it the "perils of privilege" --
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Ovaj problem – nazovimo ga opasnost privilegija --
09:53
brings us closer, I think,
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dovodi nas bliže, mislim,
09:55
to the root of our collective recklessness.
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korijenu našeg kolektivnog nemara.
09:58
Because none of us -- at least in the global North --
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Jer nitko od nas – barem ne na svjetskom sjeveru --
10:00
neither men nor women,
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ni muškarci ni žene,
10:02
are fully exempt from this message.
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nisu posve izuzeti od ove poruke.
10:05
Here's what I'm talking about.
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Evo na što mislim.
10:07
Whether we actively believe them
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Vjerovali mi aktivno
10:09
or consciously reject them,
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ili ih svjesno odbacivali,
10:11
our culture remains in the grips
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naša kultura ostaje u stisku
10:13
of certain archetypal stories
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određenih arhetipskih priča
10:15
about our supremacy
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o našoj nadmoći
10:17
over others and over nature --
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nad drugima i nad prirodom.
10:19
the narrative of the newly discovered frontier
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Priča o novootkrivenoj granici
10:22
and the conquering pioneer,
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i pioniru koji osvaja,
10:24
the narrative of manifest destiny,
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priča o postojećoj sudbini,
10:26
the narrative of apocalypse and salvation.
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priča o apokalipsi i spasenju.
10:28
And just when you think these stories are fading into history,
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I baš kad pomislite da te priče blijede i postaju prošlost,
10:30
and that we've gotten over them,
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da smo ih prevladali,
10:32
they pop up in the strangest places.
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pojave se na najčudnijim mjestima.
10:35
For instance, I stumbled across this advertisement
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Na primjer, naletjela sam na ovaj oglas
10:37
outside the women's washroom
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ispred ženskog toaleta
10:39
in the Kansas City airport.
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u zračnoj luci Kansas Cityja.
10:41
It's for Motorola's new Rugged cell phone,
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Oglas je za Motorolin novi mobitel,
10:43
and yes, it really does say,
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i da, doista kaže,
10:45
"Slap Mother Nature in the face."
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"Udarite majku prirodu u lice."
10:47
And I'm not just showing it to pick on Motorola --
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Ne pokazujem vam ovo da se obrušim na Motorolu --
10:49
that's just a bonus.
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to je dodatni bonus.
10:51
I'm showing it because --
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Pokazujem ga zato što --
10:53
they're not a sponsor, are they? --
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oni nisu sponzor, zar ne? --
10:55
because, in its own way,
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zato što, na svoj vlastiti način,
10:57
this is a crass version
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on predstavlja grubu verziju
10:59
of our founding story.
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priče o našem postanku.
11:01
We slapped Mother Nature around and won,
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Šamarali smo majku prirodu posvuda i pobijedili.
11:03
and we always win,
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Uvijek pobjeđujemo,
11:05
because dominating nature is our destiny.
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jer je dominacija nad prirodom naša sudbina.
11:08
But this is not the only fairytale we tell ourselves about nature.
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Ali to nije jedina bajka koju si govorimo o prirodi.
11:11
There's another one, equally important,
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Postoji još jedna, jednako važna,
11:14
about how that very same Mother Nature
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o tome kako je ta ista majka priroda
11:16
is so nurturing and so resilient
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toliko plodna i otporna
11:19
that we can never make a dent in her abundance.
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da nikada ne možemo naškoditi njezinom obilju.
11:22
Let's hear from Tony Hayward again.
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Čujmo opet Tonyja Haywarda.
11:24
"The Gulf of Mexico is a very big ocean.
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"Meksički zaljev je vrlo veliki ocean.
11:27
The amount of oil and dispersants that we are putting into it
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Količina nafte i disperzanata koju stavljamo u nj
11:30
is tiny in relation to the total water volume."
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sićušna je u usporedbi s ukupnom količinom vode."
11:33
In other words, the ocean is big;
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Drugim riječima, ocean je velik;
11:35
she can take it.
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on to može podnijeti.
11:38
It is this underlying assumption of limitlessness
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Ova pretpostavka o neograničenosti koja se provlači
11:41
that makes it possible
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je ono što nam omogućava
11:43
to take the reckless risks that we do.
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prihvaćati neoprezne rizike kako to činimo.
11:46
Because this is our real master-narrative:
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Jer ovo je naša prava glavna priča:
11:49
however much we mess up,
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Koliko god zabrljamo,
11:51
there will always be more --
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uvijek će ostati još --
11:53
more water, more land,
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još vode, još zemlje,
11:56
more untapped resources.
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još neiskorištenih resursa.
11:58
A new bubble will replace the old one.
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Novi mjehur će zamijeniti stari.
12:00
A new technology will come along
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Nova tehnologija će se pojaviti
12:02
to fix the messes we made with the last one.
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i popraviti greške koje smo počinili sa starom.
12:05
In a way, that is the story
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Na određeni način, ovo je priča
12:07
of the settling of the Americas,
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o naseljavanju Amerika,
12:09
the supposedly inexhaustible frontier
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navodno neiscrpne granice
12:11
to which Europeans escaped.
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na koju su Europljani pobjegli.
12:14
And it's also the story of modern capitalism,
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To je također i priča o suvremenom kapitalizmu.
12:17
because it was the wealth from this land
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Jer je bogatstvo ove zemlje
12:19
that gave birth to our economic system,
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porodilo naš ekonomski sustav,
12:22
one that cannot survive without perpetual growth
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sustav koji ne može preživjeti bez stalnog rasta
12:25
and an unending supply
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i beskrajne ponude
12:27
of new frontiers.
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novih granica.
12:29
Now the problem is
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Problem je u tome
12:31
that the story was always a lie.
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što je ta priča uvijek bila lažna.
12:33
The Earth always did have limits.
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Zemlja je uvijek bila ograničena,
12:35
They were just beyond our sights.
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samo su ograničenja bila izvan našeg vidokruga.
12:37
And now we are hitting those limits
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A sada nailazimo na ta ograničenja
12:39
on multiple fronts.
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na više fronti.
12:42
I believe that we know this,
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Vjerujem da to znamo,
12:44
yet we find ourselves trapped in a kind of narrative loop.
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ali se ipak nađemo zarobljeni u nekoj vrsti narativne petlje.
12:47
Not only do we continue to tell and retell
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Ne samo da nastavljamo pričati i prepričavati
12:50
the same tired stories,
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iste iscrpljene priče,
12:52
but we are now doing so
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već to sada činimo
12:54
with a frenzy and a fury
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s mahnitošću i gnjevom
12:56
that, frankly, verges on camp.
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koji su, iskreno, na rubu pretjerivanja.
12:59
How else to explain the cultural space
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Kako drugačije objasniti kulturni prostor
13:02
occupied by Sarah Palin?
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koji zauzima Sarah Palin.
13:04
Now on the one hand,
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S jedne strane nas
13:06
exhorting us to "drill, baby, drill,"
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potiče na "buši, baby, buši“,
13:08
because God put those resources into the ground
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jer je Bog stavio resurse u zemlju
13:11
in order for us to exploit them,
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kako bismo ih mogli eksploatirati,
13:14
and on the other, glorying in the wilderness
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a s druge uživa u divljini
13:17
of Alaska's untouched beauty
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netaknute ljepote Aljaske
13:19
on her hit reality TV show.
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u svojoj hit reality TV emisiji.
13:22
The twin message is as comforting as it is mad.
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Dvostruka poruka je jednako utješna koliko je i luda.
13:25
Ignore those creeping fears
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Ignorirajte jezive strahove
13:27
that we have finally hit the wall.
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da smo konačno udarili u zid.
13:29
There are still no limits.
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Još uvijek nema granica.
13:31
There will always be another frontier.
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Uvijek će postojati druga granica.
13:34
So stop worrying and keep shopping.
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Zato prestanite brinuti i nastavite kupovati.
13:37
Now, would that this were just about
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Kad bi riječ bila samo o
13:39
Sarah Palin and her reality TV show.
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Sarah Palin i njenoj reality TV emisiji.
13:41
In environmental circles,
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U krugovima nas koji se bavimo okolišem,
13:43
we often hear that, rather than shifting to renewables,
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često čujemo da, umjesto da idemo prema obnovljivim izvorima,
13:46
we are continuing with business as usual.
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mi jednostavno radimo dalje po starom.
13:49
This assessment, unfortunately,
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Ovaj zaključak, nažalost,
13:51
is far too optimistic.
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previše je optimističan.
13:53
The truth is that we have already exhausted
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Istina je da smo već iscrpli
13:56
so much of the easily accessible fossil fuels
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toliko lako dostupnih fosilnih goriva
13:59
that we have already entered
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da smo već ušli
14:01
a far riskier business era,
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u puno rizičniju poslovnu eru,
14:04
the era of extreme energy.
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eru ekstremne energije.
14:06
So that means drilling for oil in the deepest water,
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To znači bušotine u najdubljim vodama,
14:09
including the icy Arctic seas,
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uključujući ledena arktička mora
14:11
where a clean-up may simply be impossible.
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gdje bi čišćenje moglo jednostavno biti nemoguće.
14:14
It means large-scale hydraulic fracking for gas
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To znači hidraulično mrvljenje stijena za izvlačenje plina na veliko
14:17
and massive strip-mining operations for coal,
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i masivne rudarske operacije skidanja površine za vađenje ugljena,
14:19
the likes of which we haven't yet seen.
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kakve još nikada nismo vidjeli.
14:22
And most controversially, it means the tar sands.
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I najkontroverznije, to znači katranski pijesak.
14:25
I'm always surprised by how little
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Uvijek sam iznenađena koliko malo
14:27
people outside of Canada
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ljudi izvan Kanade
14:29
know about the Alberta Tar Sands,
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znaju o katranskom pijesku Alberte,
14:31
which this year are projected to become
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za koji se procjenjuje da će ove godine
14:33
the number one source of imported oil
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postati izvor uvozne nafte broj jedan
14:36
to the United States.
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u Sjedinjenim Državama.
14:38
It's worth taking a moment to understand this practice,
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Vrijedi posvetiti trenutak razumijevanju ove prakse,
14:41
because I believe it speaks to recklessness
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jer vjerujem da govori o nemaru
14:43
and the path we're on
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i o putu na kojem se nalazimo
14:45
like little else.
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kao malo što drugo.
14:47
So this is where the tar sands live,
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Ovo je područje gdje se katranski pijesak nalazi,
14:50
under one of the last magnificent
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ispod jedne od posljednjih veličanstvenih
14:52
Boreal forests.
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borealnih šuma.
14:54
The oil is not liquid.
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Nafta nije tekuća;
14:56
You can't just drill a hole and pump it out.
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ne možeš samo izbušiti rupu i crpsti je.
14:58
Tar sand's oil is solid,
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Nafta iz katranskog pijeska je kruta,
15:00
mixed in with the soil.
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pomiješana sa zemljom.
15:02
So to get at it,
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Zato, da biste je dobili,
15:04
you first have to get rid of the trees.
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prvo se morate riješiti drveća.
15:07
Then, you rip off the topsoil
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Tada podignete gornji sloj zemlje
15:09
and get at that oily sand.
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i dođete do naftnog pijeska.
15:12
The process requires a huge amount of water,
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Postupak zahtijeva ogromnu količinu vode,
15:15
which is then pumped into massive toxic tailing ponds.
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koja se izlijeva u ogromne toksične taložne bazene.
15:19
That's very bad news for local indigenous people
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To su vrlo loše vijesti za lokalne stanovnike
15:22
living downstream
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koji žive nizvodno
15:24
who are reporting alarmingly high cancer rates.
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i prijavljuju alarmantno visoke stope raka.
15:27
Now looking at these images,
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Gledajući ove fotografije,
15:29
it's difficult to grasp the scale of this operation,
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teško je shvatiti razmjere ove operacije,
15:32
which can already be seen from space
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koja je već vidljiva i iz svemira
15:35
and could grow to an area the size of England.
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i mogla bi narasti do veličine Engleske.
15:38
I find it helps actually
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Vjerujem da zapravo pomaže
15:40
to look at the dump trucks that move the earth,
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pogledati kamione koji prevoze zemlju,
15:42
the largest ever built.
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najveće ikad napravljene.
15:44
That's a person down there by the wheel.
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Ono tamo uz kotač je čovjek.
15:46
My point is that
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Moja poanta je u tome
15:48
this is not oil drilling.
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da ovo nije crpljenje nafte,
15:50
It's not even mining.
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nije čak ni rudarstvo.
15:52
It is terrestrial skinning.
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Ovo je deranje zemaljske kore.
15:54
Vast, vivid landscapes
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Ogromni, živopisni krajolici
15:56
are being gutted,
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su razrovani,
15:58
left monochromatic gray.
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ostavljeni monokromatski sivima.
16:00
Now I should confess that as [far as] I'm concerned
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Priznat ću da, što se mene tiče,
16:03
this would be an abomination
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ovo bi bilo odvratno
16:05
if it emitted not one particle of carbon.
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čak i da ne emitira ni jednu česticu ugljika.
16:07
But the truth is that, on average,
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No, istina je da
16:10
turning that gunk into crude oil
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pretvaranje tog mulja u sirovu naftu
16:13
produces about three times more greenhouse gas pollution
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prosječno daje trostruko veće zagađenje stakleničkim plinom
16:16
than it does to produce conventional oil
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nego što je to slučaj pri konvencionalnoj proizvodnji nafte
16:18
in Canada.
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u Kanadi.
16:20
How else to describe this,
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Kako drugačije ovo objasniti,
16:22
but as a form of mass insanity?
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nego kao oblik masovnog ludila?
16:25
Just when we know we need to be learning
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Baš kad znamo da moramo učiti
16:28
to live on the surface of our planet,
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živjeti na površini našeg planeta,
16:30
off the power of sun, wind and waves,
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od sunčane energije, vjetra i valova,
16:33
we are frantically digging
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mahnito kopamo
16:35
to get at the dirtiest,
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da bismo došli do najprljavije
16:37
highest-emitting stuff imaginable.
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tvari s najvećom emisijom koju možemo zamisliti.
16:40
This is where our story of endless growth
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Ovamo nas je dovela
16:42
has taken us,
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naša priča o beskrajnom rastu,
16:44
to this black hole at the center of my country --
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do ove crne rupe u središtu moje zemlje --
16:47
a place of such planetary pain
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mjesta takve planetarne boli
16:49
that, like the BP gusher,
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da čovjek, kao i kod izlijevanja BP-a,
16:51
one can only stand to look at it for so long.
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može samo neko vrijeme izdržati to gledati.
16:55
As Jared Diamond and others have shown us,
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Kako su nam Jared Diamond i drugi pokazali,
16:58
this is how civilizations commit suicide,
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ovo je način na koji civilizacije čine samoubojstvo,
17:01
by slamming their foot on the accelerator
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pritišćući nogom papučicu gasa
17:04
at the exact moment
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točno u trenutku
17:06
when they should be putting on the brakes.
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kad bi trebale stati na kočnicu.
17:08
The problem is that our master-narrative
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Problem je da naša glavna priča
17:11
has an answer for that too.
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i na to ima odgovor.
17:13
At the very last minute, we are going to get saved
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U posljednjem mogućem trenutku bit ćemo spašeni
17:16
just like in every Hollywood movie,
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kao u svakom holivudskom filmu,
17:18
just like in the Rapture.
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kao u "Ekstazi".
17:21
But, of course, our secular religion is technology.
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Ali naravno, naša svjetovna religija je tehnologija.
17:24
Now, you may have noticed
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Možda ste primijetili
17:27
more and more headlines like these.
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sve više i više ovakvih naslova.
17:29
The idea behind this form of "geoengineering" as it's called,
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Ideja iza ovog oblika geoinženjeringa kako se zove
17:32
is that, as the planet heats up,
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je ta, da dok se planet zagrijava,
17:34
we may be able to shoot sulfates and aluminum particles
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možda budemo u mogućnosti ispaliti čestice sulfata
17:37
into the stratosphere
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i aluminija u stratosferu
17:39
to reflect some of the sun's rays
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kako bi reflektirale dio sunčevih zraka
17:41
back to space,
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natrag u svemir,
17:43
thereby cooling the planet.
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i na taj način ohladimo planet.
17:46
The wackiest plan -- and I'm not making this up --
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Najsumanutiji plan bi bio – ne izmišljam ovo --
17:48
would put what is essentially a garden hose
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da nešto što je u biti crijevo za polijevanje vrta
17:51
18-and-a-half miles high into the sky,
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postavimo na nebu na visini od 30 km,
17:54
suspended by balloons,
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objesimo ga na balone,
17:56
to spew sulfur dioxide.
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da ono izbacuje sumporni dioksid.
17:58
So, solving the problem of pollution with more pollution.
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Dakle, riješiti problem zagađenja novim zagađenjem.
18:01
Think of it as the ultimate junk shot.
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Gledajte na ovo kao na krajnje ubrizgavanje smeća.
18:05
The serious scientists involved in this research
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Ozbiljni znanstvenici uključeni u ovo istraživanje
18:07
all stress that these techniques
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svi naglašavaju da ove tehnike
18:09
are entirely untested.
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nikad nisu testirane.
18:11
They don't know if they'll work,
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Ne znaju hoće li djelovati,
18:13
and they have no idea
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i nemaju pojma
18:15
what kind of terrifying side effects they could unleash.
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kakvu bi vrstu strašnih popratnih učinaka mogli izazvati.
18:18
Nevertheless, the mere mention of geoengineering
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Bez obzira na sve, samo spominjanje geoinženjeringa
18:21
is being greeted in some circles,
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pozdravlja se u nekim krugovima --
18:23
particularly media circles,
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naročito medijskim --
18:25
with a relief tinged with euphoria.
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s olakšanjem pomiješanim s euforijom.
18:27
An escape hatch has been reached.
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Stigli smo do otvora za bijeg.
18:29
A new frontier has been found.
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Pronađena je nova granica.
18:31
Most importantly,
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Još važnije,
18:33
we don't have to change our lifestyles after all.
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ne moramo ipak promijeniti naš način života.
18:35
You see, for some people,
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Vidite, nekim ljudima,
18:37
their savior is a guy in a flowing robe.
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spasitelj je tip u lepršavim haljama.
18:39
For other people, it's a guy with a garden hose.
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Drugima je to tip s crijevom za polijevanje.
18:43
We badly need some new stories.
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Silno nam trebaju neke nove priče.
18:46
We need stories that have different kinds of heroes
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Trebaju nam priče koje imaju drugačiju vrstu junaka
18:49
willing to take different kinds of risks --
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spremnih na različite rizike --
18:52
risks that confront recklessness head on,
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rizike koji se izravno sukobljavaju s nemarom,
18:54
that put the precautionary principle into practice,
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koji primijenjuju načelo opreza,
18:57
even if that means through direct action --
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čak i ako to znači izravnom akcijom --
19:00
like hundreds of young people willing to get arrested,
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kao stotine mladih spremnih biti uhićeni
19:02
blocking dirty power plants
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dok blokiraju prljave elektrane
19:04
or fighting mountaintop-removal coal mining.
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ili se bore protiv vađenja ugljena skidanjem vrhova brda.
19:07
We need stories
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Trebaju nam priče
19:09
that replace that linear narrative of endless growth
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koje će zamijeniti linearnu naraciju beskrajnog rasta
19:12
with circular narratives
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s kružnim naracijama
19:14
that remind us
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koje nas podsjećaju
19:16
that what goes around comes around.
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kako se sve plaća,
19:18
That this is our only home.
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kako je ovo naš jedini dom;
19:20
There is no escape hatch.
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nema otvora za bijeg.
19:22
Call it karma, call it physics,
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Zovite to karmom, zovite to fizikom,
19:25
action and reaction, call it precaution --
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akcijom i reakcijom, zovite to oprezom:
19:28
the principle that reminds us
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načelo koje nas podsjeća
19:30
that life is too precious to be risked
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da je život predragocjen da bismo ga riskirali
19:32
for any profit.
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za bilo kakav profit.
19:34
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
19:36
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Naomi Klein - Journalist, activistNaomi Klein is a public intellectual, journalist and activist.
Why you should listen
In her first book, No Logo: Taking Aim at the Brand Bullies, Naomi Klein made a strong case against the takeover of public life by global corporations and brands. She ended that pre-internet essay suggesting as a counterpoint that everyone could become their own "personal brand." In her most recent book, No Is Not Enough: Resisting Trump's Shock Politics and Winning the World We Need, she analyzes how social media has made the idea of personal branding commonplace -- and how it helped Donald Trump become the first brand-president.
Klein's other books The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism and This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. The Climate have also energized the global conversation. Klein is a board member of climate-action group 350.org and one of the organizers of Canada’s Leap Manifesto, and in 2015 she helped launch Pope Francis’s historic encyclical on ecology. In 2016, she received the Sydney Peace Prize for "inspiring us to stand up locally, nationally and internationally to demand a new agenda for sharing the planet that respects human rights and equality."
Naomi Klein | Speaker | TED.com