TED2009
P.W. Singer: Military robots and the future of war
P.W. Singer: Vojni roboti i budućnost rata
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U ovom moćnom govoru, P.W. Singer pokazuje kako široko rasprostranjena upotreba robota u ratu mijenja stvarnost borbe. Pokazuje nam scenarije ravno iz znanstvene fantastike -- koji sada i ne moraju biti tako fantastični.
P.W. Singer - Military analyst
In P.W. Singer's most recent book, "Wired for War," he studies robotic and drone warfighters -- and explores how these new war machines are changing the very nature of human conflict. He has also written on other facets of modern war, including private armies and child soldiers. Full bio
In P.W. Singer's most recent book, "Wired for War," he studies robotic and drone warfighters -- and explores how these new war machines are changing the very nature of human conflict. He has also written on other facets of modern war, including private armies and child soldiers. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I thought I'd begin with a scene of war.
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Mislio sam početi sa prikazom rata.
00:18
There was little to warn of the danger ahead.
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Malo toga je upozoravalo na opasnost sprijeda.
00:20
The Iraqi insurgent had placed the IED,
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Irački su pobunjenici postavili IED,
00:22
an Improvised Explosive Device,
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Improvised Explosive Device
(Improvizirani eksplozivni uređaj),
(Improvizirani eksplozivni uređaj),
00:25
along the side of the road with great care.
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pokraj ceste s velikom pažnjom.
00:27
By 2006, there were more than 2,500
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Do 2006, bilo je više od 2.500
00:31
of these attacks every single month,
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takvih napada svaki pojedini mjesec,
00:34
and they were the leading cause of
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i oni su bili vodeći uzrok
00:36
casualties among American soldiers
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žrtava među američkim vojnicima
00:38
and Iraqi civilians.
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i iračkim civilima.
00:40
The team that was hunting for this IED
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Tim koji je lovio za takvim IED-ima
00:42
is called an EOD team—
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se zove EOD tim --
00:44
Explosives Ordinance Disposal—and
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Explosives Ordinance Disposal
(uklanjanje eksplozivnih naprava) -- i
(uklanjanje eksplozivnih naprava) -- i
00:46
they're the pointy end of the spear in the
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oni su oštri vrh koplja u
00:48
American effort to suppress these roadside bombs.
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američkom naporu da suzbije takve drumske bombe.
00:51
Each EOD team goes out on about
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Svaki EOD tim izlazi na otprilike
00:53
600 of these bomb calls every year,
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600 takvih bombaških poziva svake godine,
00:55
defusing about two bombs a day.
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razoružavajući otprilike dvije bombe dnevno.
00:58
Perhaps the best sign of how valuable they
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Možda je najbolji znak koliko su vrijedni
01:00
are to the war effort, is that
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u ratnom pothvatu, je kako
01:02
the Iraqi insurgents put a $50,000 bounty
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su irački pobunjenici stavili nagradu od 50.000 dolara
01:04
on the head of a single EOD soldier.
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na glavu pojedinog EOD vojnika.
01:07
Unfortunately, this particular call
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Nažalost, ovaj naročit poziv
01:09
would not end well.
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neće završiti dobro.
01:11
By the time the soldier advanced close
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Do vremena kad vojnici napreduju dovoljno
01:13
enough to see the telltale wires
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blizu da vide izdajničke žice
01:15
of the bomb, it exploded in a wave of flame.
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bombe, eksplodirala je u valu plamena.
01:18
Now, depending how close you are
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Sad, ovisno koliko ste blizu
01:20
and how much explosive has been packed
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i koliko je eksploziva bilo postavljeno
01:22
into that bomb, it can cause death
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u tu bombu, može uzrokovati smrt
01:24
or injury. You have to be as far as
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ili ozlijedu. Morali bi biti čak oko
01:26
50 yards away to escape that.
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50 jarda (~46 metara) udaljeni da to izbjegnete.
01:28
The blast is so strong it can even break
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Udar je tako jak da može čak slomiti
01:30
your limbs, even if you're not hit.
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udove, čak i ako niste pogođeni.
01:32
That soldier had been on top of the bomb.
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Ovaj je vojnik bio točno na bombi.
01:34
And so when the rest of the team advanced
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Tako da dok je ostatak tima napredovao
01:37
they found little left. And that night the unit's
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našli su malo ostataka. A te je noći zapovjednik
01:39
commander did a sad duty, and he wrote
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jedinice izvršio tužnu dužnost i napisao
01:41
a condolence letter back to the United
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pismenu sućut za poslati u Sjedinjene
01:43
States, and he talked about how hard the
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države, gdje je pričao kako je težak
01:45
loss had been on his unit, about the fact
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to bio gubitak za jedinicu, te o činjenici
01:47
that they had lost their bravest soldier,
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kako su izgubili svog najhrabrijeg vojnika,
01:49
a soldier who had saved their lives
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vojnika koji im je spasio živote
01:51
many a time.
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više puta.
01:53
And he apologized
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I ispričao se
01:55
for not being able to bring them home.
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zato što nije u mogućnosti vratiti ih doma.
01:57
But then he talked up the silver lining
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Ali tada je pričao o sretnom detalju
01:59
that he took away from the loss.
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koji je uočio u ovom gubitku.
02:01
"At least," as he wrote, "when a robot dies,
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"Barem", pisao je, "kad pogine robot,
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you don't have to write a letter
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ne morate pisati pismo
02:05
to its mother."
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njegovoj majci."
02:07
That scene sounds like science fiction,
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Ova scena zvuči poput znanstvene fantastike,
02:09
but is battlefield reality already.
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ali to je stvarnost na bojištu već sada.
02:11
The soldier in that case
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Vojnik je u ovom slučaju
02:14
was a 42-pound robot called a PackBot.
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bio 42 funte (~19 kg) težak robot imenom PackBot.
02:17
The chief's letter went, not to some
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Zapovjednikovo pismo nije išlo na neku
02:20
farmhouse in Iowa like you see
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farmu u Iowu, kao što vidite
02:22
in the old war movies, but went to
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u starim ratnim filmovima, nego je išlo
02:25
the iRobot Company, which is
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kompaniji iRobot, koja je
02:27
named after the Asimov novel
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dobila ime po Asimovljevoj zbirci pripovjedaka
02:30
and the not-so-great Will Smith movie,
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i ne tako dobrom filmu s Will Smithom,
02:32
and... um... (Laughter)...
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i... hm.. (Smijeh)...
02:34
if you remember that
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Ako se sjećate kako
02:36
in that fictional world, robots started out
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u izmišljenom svijetu, roboti su počeli
02:38
carrying out mundane chores, and then
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izvršavati svakodnevne zadatke, a onda
02:40
they started taking on life-and-death decisions.
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su počeli donositi odluke o životu ili smrti.
02:42
That's a reality we face today.
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To je stvarnost kojoj smo sučeljeni danas.
02:44
What we're going to do is actually just
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Što ćemo učiniti je zbilja samo
02:46
flash a series of photos behind me that
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brza serija fotografija iza mene koje
02:48
show you the reality of robots used in war
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pokazuje stvarnost upotrebe robota u ratu
02:51
right now or already at the prototype stage.
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upravo sada ili već u fazi prototipa.
02:53
It's just to give you a taste.
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To je samo da vam da uvid.
02:56
Another way of putting it is you're not
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Drugi način kako to prikazati je kako ovdje nećete
02:58
going to see anything that's powered
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vidjeti ništa što je pogonjeno
03:00
by Vulcan technology, or teenage
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Vulkanskom tehnologijom, ili tinejdžerskim
03:02
wizard hormones or anything like that.
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čarobnjačkim hormonima ili već čim tome nalik.
03:04
This is all real. So why don't we
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Ovo je sve stvarno. Pa zašto ne bismo
03:06
go ahead and start those pictures.
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nastavili i počeli sa tim slikama.
03:08
Something big is going on in war today,
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Nešto se veliko događa s ratom danas,
03:10
and maybe even the history of humanity
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a možda čak i sa samom poviješću čovječanstva.
03:12
itself. The U.S. military went into Iraq with
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Vojska Sjedinjenih država je otišla u Irak sa
03:15
a handful of drones in the air.
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šačicom bespilotnih letjelica.
03:17
We now have 5,300.
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Danas ih imamo 5.300.
03:20
We went in with zero unmanned ground
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Otišli smo sa nula kopnenih sustava
03:22
systems. We now have 12,000.
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bez posade. Sad ih imamo 12.000.
03:26
And the tech term "killer application"
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A tehnološki termin "ubojita aplikacija"
03:28
takes on new meaning in this space.
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dobija novo značenje u ovom prostoru.
03:31
And we need to remember that we're
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A moramo upamtiti kako
03:33
talking about the Model T Fords,
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pričamo o Fordovim T modelima,
03:35
the Wright Flyers, compared
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Wrightovim letjelicama, u usporedbi
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to what's coming soon.
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s onim što uskoro dolazi.
03:39
That's where we're at right now.
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Ovo je gdje se nalazimo upravo sada.
03:41
One of the people that I recently met with
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Jedan od ljudi s kojima sam se nedavno sreo
03:43
was an Air Force three-star general, and he
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je bio general-pukovnik zračnih snaga, i
03:45
said basically, where we're headed very
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rekao je u osnovi, kamo idemo vrlo
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soon is tens of thousands of robots
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uskoro su deseci tisuća robota
03:49
operating in our conflicts, and these
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koji djeluju u našim sukobima, a ti
03:51
numbers matter, because we're not just
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brojevi znače, jer ne pričamo samo
03:53
talking about tens of thousands of today's
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o desecima tisuća današnjih
03:55
robots, but tens of thousands of these
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robota, već desecima tisuća tih
03:57
prototypes and tomorrow's robots, because
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prototipova i sutrašnjih robota, jer
03:59
of course, one of the things that's operating
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naravno, jedna od stvari koje djeluju
04:02
in technology is Moore's Law,
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u tehnologiji je Mooreov zakon,
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that you can pack in more and more
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kako možete utrpati više i više
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computing power into those robots, and so
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računalne moći u te robote, i tako
04:08
flash forward around 25 years,
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premotajmo unaprijed 25 godina,
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if Moore's Law holds true,
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ako se Mooreov zakon održi,
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those robots will be close to a billion times
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ti će roboti biti gotovo milijardu puta
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more powerful in their computing than today.
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moćniji u svojem računanju nego danas.
04:18
And so what that means is the kind of
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A što to znači je kako vrste
04:20
things that we used to only talk about at
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stvari o kojima smo navikli pričati samo na
04:22
science fiction conventions like Comic-Con
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znanstveno fantastičnim konvencijama
poput Comic-Cona
poput Comic-Cona
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have to be talked about in the halls
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moraju biti raspravljene i u dvoranama moći
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of power and places like the Pentagon.
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i mjestima poput Pentagona.
04:28
A robots revolution is upon us.
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Robotska je revolucija ovdje.
04:31
Now, I need to be clear here.
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Sad, trebam ovdje biti jasan.
04:33
I'm not talking about a revolution where you
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Ne govorim o revoluciji gdje se
04:35
have to worry about the Governor of
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morate brinuti o guverneru
04:37
California showing up at your door,
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Kalifornije kako vam se pojavljuje pred vratima,
04:39
a la the Terminator. (Laughter)
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a la Terminator. (Smijeh)
04:41
When historians look at this period, they're
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Kad će povjesničari gledati ovo razdoblje,
04:43
going to conclude that we're in a different
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zaključit će kako smo u drugačijem
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type of revolution: a revolution in war,
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tipu revolucije: u obratu rata,
04:47
like the invention of the atomic bomb.
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poput izuma atomske bombe.
04:49
But it may be even bigger than that,
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Ali može biti čak i veća od toga,
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because our unmanned systems don't just
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stoga što sustavi bez posade ne utječu samo
04:53
affect the "how" of war-fighting,
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na to "kako" se vodi rat,
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they affect the "who" of fighting
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već utječu na "tko" se bori
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at its most fundamental level.
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na najtemeljnijoj razini.
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That is, every previous revolution in war, be
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To jest, svaki prethodni obrat ratovanja,
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it the machine gun, be it the atomic bomb,
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bila to strojnica, bila to atomska bomba,
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was about a system that either shot faster,
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je bio o sustavu koji ili puca brže,
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went further, had a bigger boom.
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ide dalje, ima veći bum.
05:09
That's certainly the case with robotics, but
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To je sigurno slučaj i sa robotikom, ali
05:12
they also change the experience of the warrior
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također mijenja iskustvo ratnika
05:15
and even the very identity of the warrior.
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i čak i sam identitet ratnika.
05:18
Another way of putting this is that
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Drugi način da to kažemo
05:21
mankind's 5,000-year-old monopoly
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je kako se 5.000 godina
star monopol čovječanstva
star monopol čovječanstva
05:23
on the fighting of war is breaking down
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na vođenje rata raspada
05:26
in our very lifetime. I've spent
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unutar našeg životnog vijeka. Potrošio sam
05:28
the last several years going around
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zadnjih nekoliko godina obilazeći uokolo
05:30
meeting with all the players in this field,
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susrećući se sa svim igračima u ovom polju,
05:32
from the robot scientists to the science
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od znanstvenika oko robota do
05:34
fiction authors who inspired them to the
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autora znanstvene fantastike koji su ih nadahnuli do
05:36
19-year-old drone pilots who are fighting
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19-godišnjih pilota dronova koji se bore
05:38
from Nevada, to the four-star generals
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iz Nevade, do generala zbora
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who command them, to even the Iraqi
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koji im zapovijedaju, čak do
05:42
insurgents who they are targeting and what
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iračkih pobunjenika koje oni ciljaju
05:44
they think about our systems, and
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i što oni misle o našim sustavima, a
05:46
what I found interesting is not just
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što sam našao zanimljivim nisu samo
05:48
their stories, but how their experiences
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njihove priče, nego kako njihova iskustva
05:50
point to these ripple effects that are going
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ukazuju na učinke tog talasanja koji prelaze u
05:52
outwards in our society, in our law
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naše društvo, u naše zakone,
05:54
and our ethics, etc. And so what I'd like
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u našu etiku itd.
A što bih volio učiniti
A što bih volio učiniti
05:56
to do with my remaining time is basically
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sa svojim preostalim vremenom je u biti
05:58
flesh out a couple of these.
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ukazati na neki broj tih učinaka.
06:00
So the first is that the future of war,
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prvi je kako budućnost rata,
06:02
even a robotics one, is not going to be
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pa čak i robotskog, neće biti
06:04
purely an American one.
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čisto američka.
06:06
The U.S. is currently ahead in military
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Sjedinjene države
trenutno predvode u vojnoj
trenutno predvode u vojnoj
06:08
robotics right now, but we know that in
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robotici, ali znamo kako u
06:10
technology there's no such thing as
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tehnologiji nema takve stvari kao
06:12
a permanent first move or advantage.
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stalna prednost prvog poteza.
06:15
In a quick show of hands, how many
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Kratkim dizanjem ruku, koliko
06:17
people in this room still use
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ljudi u ovoj prostoriji i dalje koriste
06:19
Wang Computers? (Laughter)
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Wang računala? (Smijeh)
06:21
It's the same thing in war. The British and
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Ista je stvar u ratu. Britanci i
06:23
the French invented the tank.
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Francuzi su izmislili tenk.
06:26
The Germans figured out how
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Njemci su shvatili kako ga
06:28
to use it right, and so what we have to
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pravilno koristiti, a ono o čemu moramo
06:30
think about for the U.S. is that we are
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razmisliti za Sjedinjene države je kako
06:32
ahead right now, but you have
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predvodimo upravo sada, ali imate
06:34
43 other countries out there
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43 druge zemlje
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working on military robotics, and they
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koje rade na vojnoj robotici, a to
06:38
include all the interesting countries like
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uključuje sve zanimljive zemlje poput
06:40
Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran.
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Rusije, Kine, Pakistana, Irana.
06:43
And this raises a bigger worry for me.
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A to stvara veću brigu za mene.
06:46
How do we move forward in this revolution
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Kako da se krećemo naprijed u ovoj revoluciji
06:48
given the state of our manufacturing
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uzevši u obzir stanje naše proizvodnje
06:50
and the state of our science and
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i stanje našeg znanstvenog i
06:52
mathematics training in our schools?
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matematičkog obrazovanja u našim školama.
06:54
Or another way of thinking about this is,
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Ili drugačiji način razmišljanja o ovome je,
06:56
what does it mean to go to war increasingly
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što to znači ići u rat sve više
06:58
with soldiers whose hardware is made
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sa vojnicima čiji je hardver napravljen
07:01
in China and software is written in India?
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u Kini a softver napisan u Indiji?
07:06
But just as software has gone open-source,
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Ali jednako kako je softver prešao u otvoreni kod,
07:09
so has warfare.
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tako je i ratovanje.
07:11
Unlike an aircraft carrier or an atomic bomb,
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Za razliku od nosača aviona ili atomske bombe,
07:14
you don't need a massive manufacturing
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ne trebate krupni proizvodni
07:16
system to build robotics. A lot of it is
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sustav da gradite robotiku.
Velik je dio nje
Velik je dio nje
07:18
off the shelf. A lot of it's even do-it-yourself.
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sa polica. Velik je dio nje čak uradi-sam.
07:20
One of those things you just saw flashed
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Jedna od ovih stvari
koje ste upravo vidjeli kako vam je proletjela
koje ste upravo vidjeli kako vam je proletjela
07:22
before you was a raven drone, the handheld
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ispred vas je bila
bespilotna letjelica Gavran, na
bespilotna letjelica Gavran, na
07:24
tossed one. For about a thousand dollars,
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ručni izbačaj.
Za oko tisuću dolara,
Za oko tisuću dolara,
07:26
you can build one yourself, equivalent to
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možete si sagraditi jednu,
ekvivalentnu onoj
ekvivalentnu onoj
07:28
what the soldiers use in Iraq.
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koju vojnici koriste u Iraku.
07:30
That raises another wrinkle when it comes
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To stvara novu brigu kad dolazi
07:32
to war and conflict. Good guys might play
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do rata i konflikta.
Dobri momci se mogu igrati
Dobri momci se mogu igrati
07:34
around and work on these as hobby kits,
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uokolo i raditi na ovima iz hobija,
07:36
but so might bad guys.
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ali isto tako to mogu i loši momci.
07:38
This cross between robotics and things like
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Ovo križanje između robotike i stvari poput
07:40
terrorism is going to be fascinating
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terorizma će biti očaravajuće
07:42
and even disturbing,
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i čak uznemirujuće
07:44
and we've already seen it start.
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i već smo ga vidjeli kako počinje.
07:46
During the war between Israel, a state,
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Tijekom rata između Izraela, države,
07:48
and Hezbollah, a non-state actor,
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i Hezbolaha, nedržavnog sudionika,
07:51
the non-state actor flew
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nedržavni sudionik je koristio
07:53
four different drones against Israel.
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četiri različite bespilotne letjelice protiv Izraela.
07:55
There's already a jihadi website
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Već postoji džihadistička web stranica
07:57
that you can go on and remotely
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gdje možete otići i daljinski
07:59
detonate an IED in Iraq while sitting
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detonirati IED u Iraku dok sjedite
08:01
at your home computer.
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za svojim kućnim računalom.
08:03
And so I think what we're going to see is
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Tako da mislim što ćemo vidjeti su
08:05
two trends take place with this.
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dva trenda unutar ovoga.
08:07
First is, you're going to reinforce the power
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Prvi je, osnažiti ćete
08:09
of individuals against governments,
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pojedince protiv vlada,
08:13
but then the second is that
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ali drugi je kako
08:15
we are going to see an expansion
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ćemo vidjeti širenje
08:17
in the realm of terrorism.
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u carstvu terorizma.
08:19
The future of it may be a cross between
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Njegova budućnost može biti križanac između
08:21
al Qaeda 2.0 and the
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al Qaede 2.0 i
08:23
next generation of the Unabomber.
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slijedeće generacije Unabombera.
08:25
And another way of thinking about this
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A drugi je način razmišljanja o ovome
08:27
is the fact that, remember, you don't have
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činjenica kako, zapamtite, ne morate
08:29
to convince a robot that they're gonna
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uvjeriti robota kako će
08:31
receive 72 virgins after they die
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dobiti 72 djevice nakon što umre
08:34
to convince them to blow themselves up.
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a da bi ga uvjerili da se raznese.
08:37
But the ripple effects of this are going to go
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Ali učinci talasanja ovoga će izaći
08:39
out into our politics. One of the people that
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i u našu politiku. Jedan od ljudi koje
08:41
I met with was a former Assistant Secretary of
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sam sreo je bio pomoćnik ministra
08:43
Defense for Ronald Reagan, and he put it
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obrane za Ronalda Reagana, i on je stvari
08:45
this way: "I like these systems because
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postavio ovako: "Sviđaju mi se ovi sustavi jer
08:47
they save American lives, but I worry about
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spašavaju američke živote, ali brinem se radi
08:49
more marketization of wars,
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veće tržišnosti ratova,
08:51
more shock-and-awe talk,
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uzdizanja šoka i strahopoštovanja
u javnom govoru,
u javnom govoru,
08:54
to defray discussion of the costs.
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da se rasprava udalji od troškova.
08:56
People are more likely to support the use
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Vjerojatnije je kako će ljudi podržati upotrebu
08:58
of force if they view it as costless."
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sile ako je vide kao besplatnu."
09:01
Robots for me take certain trends
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Roboti se po meni
uklapaju u određene trendove
uklapaju u određene trendove
09:03
that are already in play in our body politic,
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koji se već odigravaju u našoj politici,
09:06
and maybe take them to
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i možda ih dovode do
09:08
their logical ending point.
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njihove logične krajnje točke.
09:10
We don't have a draft. We don't
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Nemamo novačenje.
Nemamo više
Nemamo više
09:12
have declarations of war anymore.
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niti objave rata.
09:15
We don't buy war bonds anymore.
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Više ne kupujemo ratne obveznice.
09:17
And now we have the fact that we're
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A sad imamo činjenicu kako
09:19
converting more and more of our American
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preokrećemo sve više naših Američkih
09:21
soldiers that we would send into harm's
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vojnika koje bismo poslali u opasnost
09:23
way into machines, and so we may take
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u strojeve, i možemo uzeti
09:26
those already lowering bars to war
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već snižene ljestvice do rata
09:29
and drop them to the ground.
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i baciti ih na zemlju.
09:32
But the future of war is also going to be
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Ali budućnost rata će također biti
09:34
a YouTube war.
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i YouTube rat.
09:36
That is, our new technologies don't merely
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To jest, naše nove tehnologije ne da tek
09:38
remove humans from risk.
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miču ljude od rizika.
09:40
They also record everything that they see.
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One također i snimaju sve što vide.
09:43
So they don't just delink the public:
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Tako da nije da samo odspajaju javnost:
09:46
they reshape its relationship with war.
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oni mijenjaju njen odnos s ratom.
09:49
There's already several thousand
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Već ima više tisuća
09:51
video clips of combat footage from Iraq
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videoisječaka snimki bitaka iz Iraka
09:53
on YouTube right now,
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na YouTube-u u ovom trenu,
09:55
most of it gathered by drones.
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većinom skupljenih bespilotnim letjelicama.
09:57
Now, this could be a good thing.
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Sad, ovo bi mogla biti dobra stvar.
09:59
It could be building connections between
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Mogla bi stvoriti vezu između
10:01
the home front and the war front
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doma i bojišta
10:03
as never before.
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kao nikad ranije.
10:05
But remember, this is taking place
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2000
Ali zapamtite, ovo se odvija
10:07
in our strange, weird world, and so
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u našem čudnom, neobičnom svijetu, pa tako
10:10
inevitably the ability to download these
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neizbježno mogućnost skidanja tih
10:12
video clips to, you know, your iPod
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videoklipova na, znate, vaš iPod
10:14
or your Zune gives you
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ili vaš Zune daje vam
10:17
the ability to turn it into entertainment.
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mogućnost da to pretvorite u zabavu.
10:21
Soldiers have a name for these clips.
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Vojnici imaju ime za te klipove.
10:23
They call it war porn.
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Zovu ih ratni porn.
10:25
The typical one that I was sent was
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Jedan tipičan koji mi je poslan je bio
10:27
an email that had an attachment of
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email sa privitkom
10:29
video of a Predator strike taking out
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snimke napada Predatora koji je uništio
10:31
an enemy site. Missile hits,
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2000
neprijateljski položaj.
Projektil pogađa,
Projektil pogađa,
10:33
bodies burst into the air with the explosion.
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tijela pršte u zrak sa eksplozijom.
10:36
It was set to music.
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Stavljena je glazba.
10:38
It was set to the pop song
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2000
Stavljena je pop stvar
10:40
"I Just Want To Fly" by Sugar Ray.
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"I just Want to Fly" od Sugar Raya.
10:43
This ability to watch more
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Ova mogućnost da se gleda više
10:46
but experience less creates a wrinkle
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ali iskusi manje stvara brigu
10:49
in the public's relationship with war.
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glede odnosa javnosti spram rata.
10:51
I think about this with a sports parallel.
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Razmišljam o tome u paraleli sa sportom.
10:53
It's like the difference between
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3000
To je kao razlika između
10:56
watching an NBA game, a professional
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3000
gledanja NBA utakmice, profesionalne
10:59
basketball game on TV, where the athletes
288
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košarkaške utakmice na TV,
gdje su sportaši
gdje su sportaši
11:02
are tiny figures on the screen, and
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mali likovi na ekranu, i
11:04
being at that basketball game in person
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osobnog bivanja na košarkaškoj utakmici
11:07
and realizing what someone seven feet
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i shvatiti kako netko od 2,15 m
11:09
really does look like.
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zbilja izgleda.
11:11
But we have to remember,
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Ali moramo zapamtiti,
11:13
these are just the clips.
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ovo su samo snimke.
11:15
These are just the ESPN SportsCenter
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2000
Ovo je samo ESPN SportsCenterova
11:17
version of the game. They lose the context.
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verzija utakmice. Gube kontekst.
11:19
They lose the strategy.
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Gube strategiju.
11:21
They lose the humanity. War just
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Gube čovječnost. Rat samo
11:23
becomes slam dunks and smart bombs.
299
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3000
postaje zakucavanja i pametne bombe.
11:26
Now the irony of all this is that
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Sad, ironija je u svemu tome
11:29
while the future of war may involve
301
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2000
dok budućnost rata može uključiti
11:31
more and more machines,
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2000
sve više strojeva,
11:33
it's our human psychology that's driving
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2000
naša je ljudska psihologija koja pokreće
11:35
all of this, it's our human failings
304
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sve to, naši ljudski nedostatci
11:37
that are leading to these wars.
305
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2000
koji dovode do tih ratova.
11:39
So one example of this that has
306
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2000
Tako je jedan primjer toga koji ima
11:41
big resonance in the policy realm is
307
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2000
velik odjek u stvarnosti politike je
11:43
how this plays out on our very real
308
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2000
kakvu to ulogu igra u našem vrlo stvarnom
11:45
war of ideas that we're fighting
309
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ratu ideja koji vodimo
11:47
against radical groups.
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2000
protiv radikalnih grupa.
11:49
What is the message that we think we are
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2000
Koja je poruka koju mislimo da
11:51
sending with these machines versus what
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2000
šaljemo s tim strojevima protiv onog što
11:53
is being received in terms of the message.
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3000
biva primljeno u pogledu poruke.
11:56
So one of the people that I met was
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Tako je jedan od ljudi koje sam sreo bio
11:58
a senior Bush Administration official,
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2000
stariji dužnosnik iz Bushove administracije,
12:00
who had this to say about
316
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2000
koji je imao ovo za reći o
12:02
our unmanning of war:
317
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2000
našem micanju ljudi iz rata:
12:04
"It plays to our strength. The thing that
318
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2000
"To je naš adut. Stvar koja
12:06
scares people is our technology."
319
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2000
plaši ljude naša je tehnologija."
12:08
But when you go out and meet with people,
320
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2000
Ali kad izađete među ljude,
12:10
for example in Lebanon, it's a very
321
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2000
na primjer u Libanonu, vrlo je
12:12
different story. One of the people
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2000
različita priča. Jedan od ljudi
12:14
I met with there was a news editor, and
323
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2000
koje sam sreo je bio taj urednik vijesti, i
12:16
we're talking as a drone is flying above him,
324
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2000
bili smo pričali dok je bespilotna letjelica
letjela nad njim,
letjela nad njim,
12:18
and this is what he had to say.
325
723000
2002
i ovo je što je imao za reći:
12:20
"This is just another sign of the coldhearted
326
725002
1998
"Ovo je samo još jedan znak bezdušnih
12:22
cruel Israelis and Americans,
327
727000
3006
okrutnih Izraelaca i Amerikanaca,
12:25
who are cowards because
328
730006
1992
koji su kukavice jer
12:27
they send out machines to fight us.
329
731998
2006
šalju strojeve da se bore s nama.
12:29
They don't want to fight us like real men,
330
734004
1992
Ne žele se boriti s nama poput pravih ljudi,
12:31
but they're afraid to fight,
331
735996
2007
već ih je strah boriti se,
12:33
so we just have to kill a few of their soldiers
332
738003
1991
tako da samo trebamo pobiti
nekoliko njihovih vojnika
nekoliko njihovih vojnika
12:35
to defeat them."
333
739994
3005
kako bismo ih pobijedili."
12:38
The future of war also is featuring
334
742999
2007
Budućnost rata također sadrži
12:40
a new type of warrior,
335
745006
1977
novu vrstu ratnika,
12:42
and it's actually redefining the experience
336
746999
3006
i zapravo redefinira iskustvo
12:45
of going to war.
337
750005
1998
odlaska u rat.
12:47
You can call this a cubicle warrior.
338
752003
1976
Možete to nazvati uredski ratnik.
12:49
This is what one Predator drone pilot
339
753994
2007
Ovo je kako je pilot drona Predatora
12:51
described of his experience fighting
340
756001
2007
opisao svoje iskustvo borbe
12:53
in the Iraq War while never leaving Nevada.
341
758008
2989
u Iračkom ratu dok uopće nije napustio Nevadu:
12:56
"You're going to war for 12 hours,
342
760997
2005
"Odlazite u rat na 12 sati,
12:58
shooting weapons at targets,
343
763002
1991
pucate iz oružja po metama,
13:00
directing kills on enemy combatants,
344
765008
2991
usmrćujete neprijateljske borce,
13:03
and then you get in the car
345
767999
2006
a onda sjednete u auto
13:05
and you drive home and within 20 minutes,
346
770005
1982
i odvezete se doma i unutar 20 minuta,
13:07
you're sitting at the dinner table
347
772003
1991
sjedite za stolom za večerom
13:09
talking to your kids about their homework."
348
774009
1993
i pričate sa svojim klincima
o njihovoj domaćoj zadaći."
o njihovoj domaćoj zadaći."
13:11
Now, the psychological balancing
349
776002
1991
Sad, psihološko balansiranje
13:13
of those experiences is incredibly tough,
350
778008
1993
tih iskustava je nevjerojatno teško,
13:15
and in fact those drone pilots have
351
780001
2992
i zapravo ti piloti dronova imaju
13:18
higher rates of PTSD than many
352
782993
2008
višu stopu PTSP-a od brojnih
13:20
of the units physically in Iraq.
353
785001
3005
jedinica fizički u Iraku.
13:23
But some have worries that this
354
788006
1992
Ali neki brinu kako će ta
13:25
disconnection will lead to something else,
355
789998
1994
razvezanost dovesti do nečeg drugog,
13:27
that it might make the contemplation of war
356
792007
1998
kako može učiniti razmišljanje o ratnim
13:29
crimes a lot easier when you have
357
794005
2005
zločinima puno lakšim kad imate
13:31
this distance. "It's like a video game,"
358
796010
1999
to odstojanje."Poput video igre je,"
13:33
is what one young pilot described to me
359
798009
1999
je kako mi je jedan mladi pilot opisao
13:35
of taking out enemy troops from afar.
360
800008
1960
uništavanje neprijateljskih
postrojbi iz daljine.
postrojbi iz daljine.
13:37
As anyone who's played Grand Theft Auto
361
801998
2995
Kako svatko tko je igrao Grand Theft Auto
13:40
knows, we do things in the video world
362
805008
3000
zna, činimo stvari u video svijetu
13:43
that we wouldn't do face to face.
363
808008
2996
koje ne bismo činili uživo.
13:46
So much of what you're hearing from me
364
811004
1998
Toliko toga što čujete od mene
13:48
is that there's another side
365
813002
1993
je kako postoji druga strana
13:50
to technologic revolutions,
366
814995
2008
tehnoloških revolucija,
13:52
and that it's shaping our present
367
817003
1994
i kako nam oblikuje sadašnjost
13:54
and maybe will shape our future of war.
368
818997
3001
a možda će oblikovati i našu budućnost rata.
13:57
Moore's Law is operative,
369
821998
2001
Mooreov zakon djeluje,
13:59
but so's Murphy's Law.
370
823999
1998
ali djeluje i Murphyjev.
14:01
The fog of war isn't being lifted.
371
825997
2005
Ratna magla se nije maknula.
14:03
The enemy has a vote.
372
828002
2010
Neprijatelj ima glas.
14:05
We're gaining incredible new capabilities,
373
830012
1989
Stječemo nevjerojatne nove sposobnosti,
14:07
but we're also seeing and experiencing
374
832001
2006
ali također vidimo i proživljavamo
14:09
new human dilemmas. Now,
375
834007
2000
nove ljudske dileme. Sad,
14:11
sometimes these are just "oops" moments,
376
836007
1999
nekad su to samo "ups!" trenuci,
14:13
which is what the head of a robotics
377
838006
1992
što je kako je to šef robotičke
14:15
company described it, you just have
378
839998
2011
kompanije opisao, samo imate
14:17
"oops" moments. Well, what are
379
842009
2000
"ups!" trenutke.
Dobro, što su
Dobro, što su
14:19
"oops" moments with robots in war?
380
844009
1996
"ups!" trenuci s robotima u ratu?
14:21
Well, sometimes they're funny. Sometimes,
381
846005
2001
Pa, ponekad su fora. Ponekad,
14:23
they're like that scene from the
382
848006
2002
nalik su sceni iz
14:25
Eddie Murphy movie "Best Defense,"
383
850008
2001
Eddie Murphyjevog filma "Najbolja obrana",
14:27
playing out in reality, where they tested out
384
852009
2001
koja se odigrava u stvarnosti, gdje su isprobali
14:29
a machine gun-armed robot, and during
385
854010
1988
strojnicom naoružanog robota, i tijekom
14:31
the demonstration it started spinning
386
855998
2001
javnog prikazivanja se počeo vrtjeti
14:33
in a circle and pointed its machine gun
387
857999
3009
u krug i usmjerio svoju strojnicu
14:36
at the reviewing stand of VIPs.
388
861008
2995
u tribinu punu VIP-ovaca.
14:39
Fortunately the weapon wasn't loaded
389
864003
1993
Srećom oružje nije bilo napunjeno
14:41
and no one was hurt, but other times
390
865996
2010
i nitko nije ozlijeđen, ali u drugim prilikama
14:43
"oops" moments are tragic,
391
868006
1992
"ups!" momenti su tragični,
14:45
such as last year in South Africa, where
392
869998
2002
kao prošle godine u Južnoj Africi, gdje
14:47
an anti-aircraft cannon had a
393
872000
2999
je protuzračni top imao
14:50
"software glitch," and actually did turn on
394
874999
2999
"softverski kvar", i zapravo se upalio
14:53
and fired, and nine soldiers were killed.
395
877998
3004
i zapucao i ubio devet vojnika.
14:56
We have new wrinkles in the laws of war
396
881002
2997
Imamo nove brige u ratnim pravilima
14:59
and accountability. What do we do
397
883999
1997
i uračunljivosti. Što činimo
15:01
with things like unmanned slaughter?
398
885996
2010
sa stvarima poput bespilotnog pokolja?
15:03
What is unmanned slaughter?
399
888006
1998
Što je bespilotni pokolj?
15:05
We've already had three instances of
400
890004
2000
Već smo imali tri slučaja
15:07
Predator drone strikes where we thought
401
892004
2000
napada Predatorom gdje smo mislili
15:09
we got bin Laden, and it turned out
402
894004
1994
kako imamo Bin Ladena,
a da je ispalo
a da je ispalo
15:11
not to be the case.
403
895998
2002
kako to nije slučaj.
15:13
And this is where we're at right now.
404
898000
2008
I to je gdje smo upravo sada.
15:15
This is not even talking about armed,
405
900008
2000
Ovo čak i nije razgovor o naoružanim
15:17
autonomous systems
406
902008
1989
autonomnim sustavima
15:19
with full authority to use force.
407
903997
2013
sa punim ovlastima upotrebe sile.
15:21
And do not believe that that isn't coming.
408
906010
1994
A ne vjerujte da to ne dolazi.
15:23
During my research I came across
409
908004
2007
Tijekom mog istraživanja naišao sam na
15:25
four different Pentagon projects
410
910011
1985
četiri različita projekta iz Pentagona
15:27
on different aspects of that.
411
911996
2012
o različitim vidovima toga.
15:29
And so you have this question:
412
914008
2002
I onda imate ovo pitanje:
15:31
what does this lead to issues like
413
916010
1993
čemu to vodi u pitanjima poput
15:33
war crimes? Robots are emotionless, so
414
918003
1992
ratnih zločina?
Roboti su bez emocija, pa
Roboti su bez emocija, pa
15:35
they don't get upset if their buddy is killed.
415
919995
3012
se ne uzrujavaju ako su im drugovi ubijeni.
15:38
They don't commit crimes of rage
416
923007
1994
Ne čine zločine iz bijesa
15:40
and revenge.
417
925001
2007
ili osvete.
15:42
But robots are emotionless.
418
927008
2997
Ali roboti su bez emocija.
15:45
They see an 80-year-old grandmother
419
930005
1999
Vide 80-godišnju baku
15:47
in a wheelchair the same way they see
420
932004
2000
u kolicima na isti način kako vide
15:49
a T-80 tank: they're both
421
934004
3002
i tenk T-80: oboje su
15:52
just a series of zeroes and ones.
422
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2993
tek nizovi nula i jedinica.
15:55
And so we have this question to figure out:
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3003
Pa imamo ovo pitanje za shvatiti:
15:58
How do we catch up our 20th century
424
943002
2003
Kako ćemo sustići naša ratna pravila
16:00
laws of war, that are so old right now
425
945005
1989
20. stoljeća, koja su sada već toliko stara
16:02
that they could qualify for Medicare,
426
946994
3008
da bi se mogla prijaviti za zdravstvenu skrb,
16:05
to these 21st century technologies?
427
950002
3008
sa ovim tehnologijama 21. stoljeća?
16:08
And so, in conclusion, I've talked about
428
953010
2987
I tako, u zaključku, pričao sam o
16:11
what seems the future of war,
429
955997
3011
što se čini budućnošću rata,
16:14
but notice that I've only used
430
959008
1990
ali primijetite da sam samo koristio
16:16
real world examples and you've only seen
431
960998
2012
primjere iz stvarnog svijeta
a vi ste vidjeli samo
a vi ste vidjeli samo
16:18
real world pictures and videos.
432
963010
2001
slike i filmove iz stvarnog svijeta.
16:20
And so this sets a great challenge for
433
965011
2000
A to tako postavlja veliki izazov
16:22
all of us that we have to worry about well
434
967011
1986
za sve nas o kojem se moramo brinuti
16:24
before you have to worry about your
435
968997
2009
poprilično prije nego brinuti o vašoj
16:26
Roomba sucking the life away from you.
436
971006
2001
Roombi kako siše život iz vas.
16:28
Are we going to let the fact that what's
437
973007
1999
Hoćemo li pustiti činjenicu koja se
16:30
unveiling itself right now in war
438
975006
3000
razotkriva upravo sada u ratu
16:33
sounds like science fiction and therefore
439
978006
2991
da zvuči kao znanstvena fantastika i prema tome
16:36
keeps us in denial?
440
980997
2005
ostati u poricanju?
16:38
Are we going to face the reality
441
983002
2004
Hoćemo li se suočiti sa stvarnošću
16:40
of 21st century war?
442
985006
1993
rata u 21. stoljeću?
16:42
Is our generation going to make the same
443
986999
2001
Hoće li naša generacija napraviti istu
16:44
mistake that a past generation did
444
989000
2009
grešku koju je napravila i prethodna
16:46
with atomic weaponry, and not deal with
445
991009
1998
s atomskim oružjem, i ne pozabaviti se
16:48
the issues that surround it until
446
993007
1995
problemima koji ju okružuju sve dok
16:50
Pandora's box is already opened up?
447
995002
2007
Pandorina kutija ne bude već otvorena?
16:52
Now, I could be wrong on this, and
448
997009
1998
Sad, mogu o ovome biti u krivu, a
16:54
one Pentagon robot scientist told me
449
999007
2004
jedan pentagonski znanstvenik robotičar
mi je rekao
mi je rekao
16:56
that I was. He said, "There's no real
450
1001011
1994
da i jesam.
Rekao je: "Nema stvarnih
Rekao je: "Nema stvarnih
16:58
social, ethical, moral issues when it comes
451
1003005
1995
društvenih, etičkih, moralnih pitanja kad dođe
17:00
to robots.
452
1005000
1998
do robota.
17:02
That is," he added, "unless the machine
453
1006998
2001
To jest, "dodaje, "osim ako stroj
17:04
kills the wrong people repeatedly.
454
1008999
3010
opetovano ne ubija krive ljude.
17:07
Then it's just a product recall issue."
455
1012009
2989
Onda je to samo pitanje povlačenja proizvoda."
17:10
And so the ending point for this is
456
1014998
3011
Zadnja je točka ovoga
17:13
that actually, we can turn to Hollywood.
457
1018009
5002
kako zapravo,
možemo se okrenuti Hollywoodu.
možemo se okrenuti Hollywoodu.
17:18
A few years ago, Hollywood gathered
458
1023011
1996
Prije nekoliko godina,
Hollywood je skupio
Hollywood je skupio
17:20
all the top characters and created
459
1025007
3006
sve glavne likove i stvorio
17:23
a list of the top 100 heroes and
460
1028013
1997
listu glavnih 100 heroja te
17:25
top 100 villains of all of Hollywood history,
461
1030010
2990
glavnih 100 zlikovaca holivudske povijesti,
17:28
the characters that represented the best
462
1033000
2006
likove koji predstavljaju sve najbolje
17:30
and worst of humanity.
463
1035006
1992
i sve najbolje od čovječanstva.
17:32
Only one character made it onto both lists:
464
1036998
4015
Samo se jedan lik našao na obje liste:
17:36
The Terminator, a robot killing machine.
465
1041013
2996
Terminator, ubojit robotski stroj.
17:39
And so that points to the fact that
466
1044009
1988
A to ukazuje na činjenicu kako
17:41
our machines can be used
467
1045997
2013
naši strojevi mogu biti korišteni
17:43
for both good and evil, but for me
468
1048010
1999
jednako za dobro i za zlo, ali za mene
17:45
it points to the fact that there's a duality
469
1050009
1996
to ukazuje na činjenicu
kako postoji takva dvojnost
kako postoji takva dvojnost
17:47
of humans as well.
470
1052005
3000
i ljudi.
17:50
This week is a celebration
471
1055005
1998
Ova je tjedan proslava
17:52
of our creativity. Our creativity
472
1057003
1999
našeg stvaralaštva.
Naše je stvaralaštvo
Naše je stvaralaštvo
17:54
has taken our species to the stars.
473
1059002
1998
povelo našu vrstu do zvijezda.
17:56
Our creativity has created works of arts
474
1061000
2007
Naše je stvaralaštvo stvorilo umjetnička djela
17:58
and literature to express our love.
475
1063007
2996
i književnost da nam izrazi ljubav.
18:01
And now, we're using our creativity
476
1066003
1998
A sada,
koristimo naše stvaralaštvo
koristimo naše stvaralaštvo
18:03
in a certain direction, to build fantastic
477
1068001
1993
u određenom smjeru,
da napravimo fantastične
da napravimo fantastične
18:05
machines with incredible capabilities,
478
1070009
2987
strojeve s nevjerojatnim sposobnostima,
18:08
maybe even one day
479
1072996
2009
možda čak jednog dana
18:10
an entirely new species.
480
1075005
2997
jednu posve novu vrstu.
18:13
But one of the main reasons that we're
481
1078002
2005
Ali jedan je od glavnih razloga što
18:15
doing that is because of our drive
482
1080007
1998
to činimo naš nagon
18:17
to destroy each other, and so the question
483
1082005
3000
da uništimo jedni druge,
tako da je pitanje
tako da je pitanje
18:20
we all should ask:
484
1085005
1994
koje bismo se svi trebali zapitati:
18:22
is it our machines, or is it us
485
1086999
2000
Jesu li naši strojevi,
ili smo mi
ili smo mi
18:24
that's wired for war?
486
1088999
2007
oni koji su predodređeni za rat?
18:26
Thank you. (Applause)
487
1091006
2098
Hvala vam. (Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
P.W. Singer - Military analystIn P.W. Singer's most recent book, "Wired for War," he studies robotic and drone warfighters -- and explores how these new war machines are changing the very nature of human conflict. He has also written on other facets of modern war, including private armies and child soldiers.
Why you should listen
Peter Warren Singer is the director of the 21st Century Defense Initiative at the Brookings Institution -- where his research and analysis offer an eye-opening take on what the 21st century holds for war and foreign policy. His latest book, Wired for War, examines how the US military has been, in the words of a recent US Navy recruiting ad, "working hard to get soldiers off the front lines" and replacing humans with machines for bombing, flying and spying. He asks big questions: What will the rise of war machines mean to traditional notions of the battlefield, like honor? His 2003 book Corporate Warriors was a prescient look at private military forces. It's essential reading for anyone curious about what went on to happen in Iraq involving these quasi-armies.
Singer is a prolific writer and essayist (for Brookings, for newspapers, and for Wired.com's great Threat Level), and is expert at linking popular culture with hard news on what's coming next from the military-industrial complex. Recommended: his recent piece for Brookings called "A Look at the Pentagon's Five-Step Plan for Making Iron Man Real."
P.W. Singer | Speaker | TED.com