TED2009
P.W. Singer: Military robots and the future of war
PW 辛格：军事机器人和战争的未来
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在这场强有力的演讲中，P.W.辛格(P.W. Singer)展示了军事机器人的广泛应用正在如何改变着战争的现状。他向我们展示了犹如科幻小说中的场景 -- 这些现在都有可能变为现实。
P.W. Singer - Military analyst
In P.W. Singer's most recent book, "Wired for War," he studies robotic and drone warfighters -- and explores how these new war machines are changing the very nature of human conflict. He has also written on other facets of modern war, including private armies and child soldiers. Full bio
In P.W. Singer's most recent book, "Wired for War," he studies robotic and drone warfighters -- and explores how these new war machines are changing the very nature of human conflict. He has also written on other facets of modern war, including private armies and child soldiers. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I thought I'd begin with a scene of war.
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我想从一个战争的片段说起
00:18
There was little to warn of the danger ahead.
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危机来得毫无征兆
00:20
The Iraqi insurgent had placed the IED,
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伊拉克叛军将IED
00:22
an Improvised Explosive Device,
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也就是简易爆炸装置
00:25
along the side of the road with great care.
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小心翼翼地设置在路边
00:27
By 2006, there were more than 2,500
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在2006年之前，这样的攻击事件
00:31
of these attacks every single month,
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每个月超过2500起
00:34
and they were the leading cause of
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这是造成
00:36
casualties among American soldiers
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在伊美军士兵
00:38
and Iraqi civilians.
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和伊拉克平民伤亡的罪魁祸首
00:40
The team that was hunting for this IED
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搜索这些简易爆炸装置的部队
00:42
is called an EOD team—
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叫作EOD小组
00:44
Explosives Ordinance Disposal—and
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爆炸军械处置小组
00:46
they're the pointy end of the spear in the
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他们是美国压制这些
00:48
American effort to suppress these roadside bombs.
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用来压制这些土制炸弹的攻击
00:51
Each EOD team goes out on about
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每个EOD小组会出动
00:53
600 of these bomb calls every year,
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每年大约600次拆弹任务
00:55
defusing about two bombs a day.
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每天平均拆除2个炸弹
00:58
Perhaps the best sign of how valuable they
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或许最能显示他们对于
01:00
are to the war effort, is that
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战争行动的重要性，便是
01:02
the Iraqi insurgents put a $50,000 bounty
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伊拉克叛军悬赏5万美金
01:04
on the head of a single EOD soldier.
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为每个EOD士兵的头颅
01:07
Unfortunately, this particular call
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很不幸，这次行动
01:09
would not end well.
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结局悲惨
01:11
By the time the soldier advanced close
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当一名士兵刚刚靠近
01:13
enough to see the telltale wires
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可以看到炸弹的引线时
01:15
of the bomb, it exploded in a wave of flame.
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它在一片火浪中爆炸了
01:18
Now, depending how close you are
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根据你和炸弹的距离
01:20
and how much explosive has been packed
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以及那个炸弹中放了
01:22
into that bomb, it can cause death
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多少炸药，极有可能死亡
01:24
or injury. You have to be as far as
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或者受伤。你至少要距离
01:26
50 yards away to escape that.
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50码远才能安全逃脱
01:28
The blast is so strong it can even break
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爆炸强烈到就算你没有被直接打击
01:30
your limbs, even if you're not hit.
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也可能四肢断掉
01:32
That soldier had been on top of the bomb.
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那名士兵就在炸弹的正上方
01:34
And so when the rest of the team advanced
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所以当其他队员赶到时
01:37
they found little left. And that night the unit's
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已经没有什么余骸剩下了
01:39
commander did a sad duty, and he wrote
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那天晚上，部队指挥官在悲痛中履行了长官职责
01:41
a condolence letter back to the United
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他写了一封吊唁信并寄回了美国
01:43
States, and he talked about how hard the
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他提到了失去这名士兵
01:45
loss had been on his unit, about the fact
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整个队伍是多么难过
01:47
that they had lost their bravest soldier,
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他们失去了最勇敢的战士
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a soldier who had saved their lives
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曾救过他们的性命
01:51
many a time.
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许多次
01:53
And he apologized
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同时他为
01:55
for not being able to bring them home.
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不能将他们所有人都带回家而道了歉
01:57
But then he talked up the silver lining
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但紧接着，他讲起了
01:59
that he took away from the loss.
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这次不幸中之大幸
02:01
"At least," as he wrote, "when a robot dies,
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“至少，”他写道，“当一个机器人死去时
02:03
you don't have to write a letter
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你不用给它的母亲
02:05
to its mother."
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写吊唁信。”
02:07
That scene sounds like science fiction,
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这个场景听起来像科幻小说
02:09
but is battlefield reality already.
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但在战场上却已经是现实
02:11
The soldier in that case
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上面提到的士兵
02:14
was a 42-pound robot called a PackBot.
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是一个42磅的机器人，叫做PackBot。
02:17
The chief's letter went, not to some
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那位指挥官的信
02:20
farmhouse in Iowa like you see
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并没有寄给爱荷华的某个农场
02:22
in the old war movies, but went to
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像老战争片里演的那样
02:25
the iRobot Company, which is
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而是寄给了iRobot公司
02:27
named after the Asimov novel
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公司名字来源于阿西莫夫(Asimov)的小说
02:30
and the not-so-great Will Smith movie,
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以及威尔.史密斯那不怎么样的电影
02:32
and... um... (Laughter)...
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还有...(笑声)...
02:34
if you remember that
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如果你们还记得
02:36
in that fictional world, robots started out
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在小说世界中，机器人从
02:38
carrying out mundane chores, and then
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做日常家务开始，直到后来
02:40
they started taking on life-and-death decisions.
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他们开始做出生死攸关的决定
02:42
That's a reality we face today.
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这就是我们今天面对的现实
02:44
What we're going to do is actually just
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我们现在要做的
02:46
flash a series of photos behind me that
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就是为大家展示一系列照片
02:48
show you the reality of robots used in war
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关于军事机器人的现实
02:51
right now or already at the prototype stage.
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已在使用的，或是处于雏形阶段的
02:53
It's just to give you a taste.
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这只是让各位见识一下
02:56
Another way of putting it is you're not
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换一种说法，便是各位
02:58
going to see anything that's powered
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不会看到任何靠瓦肯星的
03:00
by Vulcan technology, or teenage
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科技运转的事物，也不会有类似
03:02
wizard hormones or anything like that.
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青年魔法荷尔蒙之类的东西
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This is all real. So why don't we
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这些都是真实的
03:06
go ahead and start those pictures.
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让我们开始展示这些照片吧
03:08
Something big is going on in war today,
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今天的战争正在经历着翻天覆地的变化
03:10
and maybe even the history of humanity
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也可能改变人道主义的历史
03:12
itself. The U.S. military went into Iraq with
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美国军队在进入伊拉克时
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a handful of drones in the air.
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只有五架无人机
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We now have 5,300.
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我们现在有5300架
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We went in with zero unmanned ground
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进入伊拉克时我们尚没有一个无人地面系统
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systems. We now have 12,000.
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我们现在有12000个
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And the tech term "killer application"
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而本身作为一个科技词汇的“杀手级应用”
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takes on new meaning in this space.
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在这个领域中获得了新的意义。
03:31
And we need to remember that we're
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而我们需要记住
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talking about the Model T Fords,
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现在所讲的技术只相当于福特T型车
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the Wright Flyers, compared
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和莱特飞行器的级别
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to what's coming soon.
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与即将出现的的技术相比
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That's where we're at right now.
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这就是我们的现状
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One of the people that I recently met with
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我最近会见过的一个人
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was an Air Force three-star general, and he
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是一位空军的三星上将
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said basically, where we're headed very
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他说，在不远的将来
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soon is tens of thousands of robots
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我们将会有成千上万个机器人
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operating in our conflicts, and these
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投入到武装对抗中
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numbers matter, because we're not just
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这些数字很重要，因为我们不只是
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talking about tens of thousands of today's
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在讲成千上万个
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robots, but tens of thousands of these
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今天的机器人，而是成千上万个
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prototypes and tomorrow's robots, because
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概念雏形和未来的机器人
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of course, one of the things that's operating
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因为，主导科技发展之一
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in technology is Moore's Law,
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的摩尔定律说
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that you can pack in more and more
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这些机器人可以拥有
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computing power into those robots, and so
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越来越强大的计算能力
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flash forward around 25 years,
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所以大概25年后
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if Moore's Law holds true,
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如果摩尔定律成立
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those robots will be close to a billion times
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这些机器人会比今天的拥有
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more powerful in their computing than today.
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强大上亿倍的计算能力
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And so what that means is the kind of
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这意味着
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things that we used to only talk about at
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那些我们以前只能在
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science fiction conventions like Comic-Con
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像动漫展这种科幻小说展谈论的事情
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have to be talked about in the halls
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将会在像五角大楼
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of power and places like the Pentagon.
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这样权利中心被提起
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A robots revolution is upon us.
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我们正在经历着一场机器人革命
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Now, I need to be clear here.
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现在我想澄清一件事
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I'm not talking about a revolution where you
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我不是在说那种革命
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have to worry about the Governor of
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那种你需要担心加利福尼亚州长
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California showing up at your door,
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以终结者的身份出现在你家门口
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a la the Terminator. (Laughter)
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的那种革命（笑声）
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When historians look at this period, they're
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当历史学家回顾这段时期
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going to conclude that we're in a different
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他们会认为我们在经历一场不一样的革命
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type of revolution: a revolution in war,
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战争的革命
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like the invention of the atomic bomb.
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就像原子弹的发明一样
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But it may be even bigger than that,
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而这有可能比原子弹更重要
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because our unmanned systems don't just
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因为我们的无人驾驶系统
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affect the "how" of war-fighting,
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将不仅仅影响到我们“如何”打仗
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they affect the "who" of fighting
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它影响到“谁”来打仗
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at its most fundamental level.
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在最基本的层面上
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That is, every previous revolution in war, be
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也就是说，过去的每一次战争革命
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it the machine gun, be it the atomic bomb,
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比如机关枪，比如原子弹
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was about a system that either shot faster,
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都是关于一个系统 - 要么射击更快
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went further, had a bigger boom.
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要么射程更远，要么打击更广
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That's certainly the case with robotics, but
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机器人学也能有这些作用
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they also change the experience of the warrior
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但同时它也改变战士的参战体验
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and even the very identity of the warrior.
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甚至是战士的身份
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Another way of putting this is that
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换句话说
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mankind's 5,000-year-old monopoly
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人类五千年来对于战争的垄断
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on the fighting of war is breaking down
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将在我们有生之年结束
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in our very lifetime. I've spent
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我在过去
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the last several years going around
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几年中在各地会见了
05:30
meeting with all the players in this field,
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这个领域的所有参与者
05:32
from the robot scientists to the science
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从机器人科学家
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fiction authors who inspired them to the
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到启发了他们的科幻小说作者
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19-year-old drone pilots who are fighting
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到来自内华达州的19岁无人机飞行员
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from Nevada, to the four-star generals
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到指挥他们的四星上将
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who command them, to even the Iraqi
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甚至到伊拉克叛军
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insurgents who they are targeting and what
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他们的打击目标
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they think about our systems, and
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以及他们对于这些系统的看法
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what I found interesting is not just
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而让我感兴趣的不仅仅是
05:48
their stories, but how their experiences
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他们的故事，而是他们的经历
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point to these ripple effects that are going
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指出了一些因为涟漪作用而被影响到的
05:52
outwards in our society, in our law
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我们的社会、法律
05:54
and our ethics, etc. And so what I'd like
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和伦理
05:56
to do with my remaining time is basically
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我想用余下的时间
05:58
flesh out a couple of these.
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讲述其中几个看法
06:00
So the first is that the future of war,
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第一，战争的未来
06:02
even a robotics one, is not going to be
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就算机器人化了，未来也不会
06:04
purely an American one.
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纯粹的属于美国
06:06
The U.S. is currently ahead in military
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美国目前在军事机器人上领先
06:08
robotics right now, but we know that in
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但我们知道
06:10
technology there's no such thing as
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在科技中
06:12
a permanent first move or advantage.
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没有永远的先手或有利地位
06:15
In a quick show of hands, how many
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请还在使用
06:17
people in this room still use
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王氏电脑的人
06:19
Wang Computers? (Laughter)
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快速的举下手。（笑声）
06:21
It's the same thing in war. The British and
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战争也是一样
06:23
the French invented the tank.
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英国人和法国人发明了坦克
06:26
The Germans figured out how
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德国人发掘了它的潜力
06:28
to use it right, and so what we have to
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所以我们需要
06:30
think about for the U.S. is that we are
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虽然我们美国现在
06:32
ahead right now, but you have
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但仍有
06:34
43 other countries out there
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其他43个国家
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working on military robotics, and they
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也在研发军事机器人
06:38
include all the interesting countries like
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在这其中便包括了
06:40
Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran.
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俄罗斯、中国、巴基斯坦、和伊朗
06:43
And this raises a bigger worry for me.
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而这让我更加担心
06:46
How do we move forward in this revolution
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我们如何能在这场革命中前行？
06:48
given the state of our manufacturing
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以我们如今的生产状况
06:50
and the state of our science and
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学校中关于科学
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mathematics training in our schools?
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和数学的教育状况
06:54
Or another way of thinking about this is,
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换句话说
06:56
what does it mean to go to war increasingly
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当我们加剧使用
06:58
with soldiers whose hardware is made
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有着在中国制造的硬件
07:01
in China and software is written in India?
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和在印度写的软件的士兵，战争会变成什么样子？
07:06
But just as software has gone open-source,
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但就像软件有着开放源码
07:09
so has warfare.
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战争也是如此
07:11
Unlike an aircraft carrier or an atomic bomb,
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不像航空母舰或原子弹
07:14
you don't need a massive manufacturing
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建造机器人不需要庞大的
07:16
system to build robotics. A lot of it is
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生产系统。很多部件
07:18
off the shelf. A lot of it's even do-it-yourself.
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在商店便买的到，自己也可以制造很多部件
07:20
One of those things you just saw flashed
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你们刚刚看到的一张照片
07:22
before you was a raven drone, the handheld
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是一驾用手掷的掠夺者无人飞行机。
07:24
tossed one. For about a thousand dollars,
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花大概一千美元
07:26
you can build one yourself, equivalent to
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你便可以自己建造一个
07:28
what the soldiers use in Iraq.
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和士兵在伊拉克用的一样
07:30
That raises another wrinkle when it comes
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这对于战争和冲突来说又多添加了
07:32
to war and conflict. Good guys might play
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一层考虑。好人可能会
07:34
around and work on these as hobby kits,
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把它当作业余爱好
07:36
but so might bad guys.
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但坏人也会
07:38
This cross between robotics and things like
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机器人学和恐怖主义的
07:40
terrorism is going to be fascinating
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的产物让人
07:42
and even disturbing,
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异常不安
07:44
and we've already seen it start.
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而我们已经看到了它的开始
07:46
During the war between Israel, a state,
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当以色列，一个国家
07:48
and Hezbollah, a non-state actor,
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和真主党，一个非国家组织的战争中
07:51
the non-state actor flew
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这个非国家组织
07:53
four different drones against Israel.
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对以色列用了四种不同的无人飞行机
07:55
There's already a jihadi website
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网上也已经有了一个圣战网站
07:57
that you can go on and remotely
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你可以在家中的电脑前
07:59
detonate an IED in Iraq while sitting
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在上面远程引爆一个
08:01
at your home computer.
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伊拉克的IED
08:03
And so I think what we're going to see is
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所以我觉得
08:05
two trends take place with this.
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这会带来两个趋势
08:07
First is, you're going to reinforce the power
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第一，个人
08:09
of individuals against governments,
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对抗政府的力量将会增强
08:13
but then the second is that
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第二
08:15
we are going to see an expansion
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我们将会看到
08:17
in the realm of terrorism.
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恐怖主义的会扩展
08:19
The future of it may be a cross between
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未来可能会出现一种
08:21
al Qaeda 2.0 and the
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2000
由基地组织2.0和
08:23
next generation of the Unabomber.
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新一代的炸弹客交汇的产物
08:25
And another way of thinking about this
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换句话说
08:27
is the fact that, remember, you don't have
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实际上，请记住，你不需要
08:29
to convince a robot that they're gonna
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用这样的理由说服一个机器人
08:31
receive 72 virgins after they die
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让它相信死后能得到72个处女
08:34
to convince them to blow themselves up.
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从而说服它们去做人肉炸弹
08:37
But the ripple effects of this are going to go
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而这涟漪作用也将会渗入
08:39
out into our politics. One of the people that
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我们的政治。我所见过的
08:41
I met with was a former Assistant Secretary of
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2000
其中一人是罗纳德.里根的
08:43
Defense for Ronald Reagan, and he put it
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前国务卿助理。他这么说：
08:45
this way: "I like these systems because
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2000
“我喜欢这些系统
08:47
they save American lives, but I worry about
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因为它们能拯救美国人的性命，但我担心
08:49
more marketization of wars,
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战争的市场化
08:51
more shock-and-awe talk,
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以更多的震慑行动
08:54
to defray discussion of the costs.
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来减轻关于代价的讨论
08:56
People are more likely to support the use
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人们更倾向于支持武力手段
08:58
of force if they view it as costless."
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如果他们认为这代价很低。”
09:01
Robots for me take certain trends
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对于我来说，机器人
09:03
that are already in play in our body politic,
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将一些已经存在在我们政治中的趋势
09:06
and maybe take them to
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2000
带到了它们
09:08
their logical ending point.
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逻辑的终点
09:10
We don't have a draft. We don't
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2000
我们不再拟稿，我们也
09:12
have declarations of war anymore.
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不再宣战。
09:15
We don't buy war bonds anymore.
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我们不再购买战争债券
09:17
And now we have the fact that we're
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而现在事实上我们正在
09:19
converting more and more of our American
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2000
正在将越来越多的美军士兵
09:21
soldiers that we would send into harm's
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那些本应亲身赴险的士兵
09:23
way into machines, and so we may take
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3000
替换成机器人
09:26
those already lowering bars to war
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将已经非常低的战争门槛
09:29
and drop them to the ground.
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一降到底。
09:32
But the future of war is also going to be
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但未来的战争也会是
09:34
a YouTube war.
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2000
一场 Youtube 战争
09:36
That is, our new technologies don't merely
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2000
也就是说，我们的新科技不仅仅
09:38
remove humans from risk.
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2000
消除了人类的危险
09:40
They also record everything that they see.
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3000
它们也记录着我们看到的一切
09:43
So they don't just delink the public:
256
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所以它们不仅让大众与战争脱钩
09:46
they reshape its relationship with war.
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它们重新塑造了大众和战争的关系
09:49
There's already several thousand
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已经有几千个
09:51
video clips of combat footage from Iraq
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关于伊拉克的实况视频录像
09:53
on YouTube right now,
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在YouTube上可以看到
09:55
most of it gathered by drones.
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2000
大部分影像由无人机收集
09:57
Now, this could be a good thing.
262
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2000
这可以是件好事
09:59
It could be building connections between
263
584000
2000
它可以在家园
10:01
the home front and the war front
264
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2000
和战争前线中建立一种
10:03
as never before.
265
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2000
以前未有过的联系
10:05
But remember, this is taking place
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2000
但请记住，这些的发生在
10:07
in our strange, weird world, and so
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我们这个奇怪荒谬的世界中
10:10
inevitably the ability to download these
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最终，只要能下载
10:12
video clips to, you know, your iPod
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这些录像到你的 iPod
10:14
or your Zune gives you
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或 Zune
10:17
the ability to turn it into entertainment.
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你就能把它们娱乐化
10:21
Soldiers have a name for these clips.
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士兵们给这些录像取了名字
10:23
They call it war porn.
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2000
他们叫它战争色情
10:25
The typical one that I was sent was
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2000
典型的例子是我曾收到
10:27
an email that had an attachment of
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2000
一封电子邮件的附件中
10:29
video of a Predator strike taking out
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2000
有一段“掠夺者”无人机攻击一个敌军据点的录像
10:31
an enemy site. Missile hits,
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2000
导弹命中
10:33
bodies burst into the air with the explosion.
278
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3000
人被爆炸炸入空中
10:36
It was set to music.
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2000
录像还加了背景音乐
10:38
It was set to the pop song
280
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2000
是流行歌曲
10:40
"I Just Want To Fly" by Sugar Ray.
281
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3000
Sugar Ray的"I just want to Fly"
10:43
This ability to watch more
282
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3000
人们能看到更多
10:46
but experience less creates a wrinkle
283
631000
3000
但却感受更少
10:49
in the public's relationship with war.
284
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2000
这将对公众和战争的关系带来负面影响
10:51
I think about this with a sports parallel.
285
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2000
我用一种体育来比喻这种关系
10:53
It's like the difference between
286
638000
3000
这是截然不同的：
10:56
watching an NBA game, a professional
287
641000
3000
在电视机前观看NBA职业篮球赛
10:59
basketball game on TV, where the athletes
288
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3000
运动员们
11:02
are tiny figures on the screen, and
289
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2000
只是一个个银幕上的小人
11:04
being at that basketball game in person
290
649000
3000
而在现场看球赛时
11:07
and realizing what someone seven feet
291
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2000
亲身感受身高2米的人
11:09
really does look like.
292
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2000
真正是什么样子
11:11
But we have to remember,
293
656000
2000
但我们需要记住
11:13
these are just the clips.
294
658000
2000
这些只是（战争录像）片段
11:15
These are just the ESPN SportsCenter
295
660000
2000
这些只是类似ESPN体育中心版本的比赛片段
11:17
version of the game. They lose the context.
296
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2000
没有背景信息
11:19
They lose the strategy.
297
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2000
鲜少涉及战略
11:21
They lose the humanity. War just
298
666000
2000
更加丧失人性
11:23
becomes slam dunks and smart bombs.
299
668000
3000
战争变成了灌篮和跟踪导弹
11:26
Now the irony of all this is that
300
671000
3000
这一切中最讽刺的便是
11:29
while the future of war may involve
301
674000
2000
虽然未来的战争会有
11:31
more and more machines,
302
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2000
越来越多的机械参与其中
11:33
it's our human psychology that's driving
303
678000
2000
但我们人类的心理才是一切的源头
11:35
all of this, it's our human failings
304
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2000
人性的弱点
11:37
that are leading to these wars.
305
682000
2000
才会导致战争
11:39
So one example of this that has
306
684000
2000
有一个例子
11:41
big resonance in the policy realm is
307
686000
2000
在政策方面有着共鸣
11:43
how this plays out on our very real
308
688000
2000
这会如何改变
11:45
war of ideas that we're fighting
309
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2000
我们与激进组织的
11:47
against radical groups.
310
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2000
理念战争
11:49
What is the message that we think we are
311
694000
2000
我们认为机械的运用
11:51
sending with these machines versus what
312
696000
2000
将传达出什么样的信息
11:53
is being received in terms of the message.
313
698000
3000
以及对方将如何理解这些信息
11:56
So one of the people that I met was
314
701000
2000
我见过的其中一个人
11:58
a senior Bush Administration official,
315
703000
2000
曾经是布什政府的工作人员
12:00
who had this to say about
316
705000
2000
他这样说起
12:02
our unmanning of war:
317
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2000
我们的无人战争
12:04
"It plays to our strength. The thing that
318
709000
2000
“这是我们的长处
12:06
scares people is our technology."
319
711000
2000
人们害怕的便是我们的科技”
12:08
But when you go out and meet with people,
320
713000
2000
但当你在各地和人们交谈时
12:10
for example in Lebanon, it's a very
321
715000
2000
比如说在黎巴嫩
12:12
different story. One of the people
322
717000
2000
人们的想法又是完全不同。我在那
12:14
I met with there was a news editor, and
323
719000
2000
我在那儿遇到的了一位新闻编辑
12:16
we're talking as a drone is flying above him,
324
721000
2000
当我们在交谈时一架无人飞行机飞过他的头顶
12:18
and this is what he had to say.
325
723000
2002
然后他说了这样的话：
“这只是另一个以色列人
12:20
"This is just another sign of the coldhearted
326
725002
1998
12:22
cruel Israelis and Americans,
327
727000
3006
和美国人冷血残酷的证明
他们懦弱到
12:25
who are cowards because
328
730006
1992
12:27
they send out machines to fight us.
329
731998
2006
只敢用机器来和我们打仗
他们不愿意像真正的男人一样来打仗
12:29
They don't want to fight us like real men,
330
734004
1992
12:31
but they're afraid to fight,
331
735996
2007
他们不敢战斗
所以我们只需要杀死少许几个士兵
12:33
so we just have to kill a few of their soldiers
332
738003
1991
12:35
to defeat them."
333
739994
3005
便可以击溃他们。”
12:38
The future of war also is featuring
334
742999
2007
未来的战争也将引进
一种新的战士
12:40
a new type of warrior,
335
745006
1977
12:42
and it's actually redefining the experience
336
746999
3006
并重新定义
上战场的经历
12:45
of going to war.
337
750005
1998
你可以称之为“格子间战士”
12:47
You can call this a cubicle warrior.
338
752003
1976
12:49
This is what one Predator drone pilot
339
753994
2007
一名“掠夺者”无人机的飞行员
这样描述他的战斗经历
12:51
described of his experience fighting
340
756001
2007
加入伊拉克战争的战斗，却从未离开内华达
12:53
in the Iraq War while never leaving Nevada.
341
758008
2989
12:56
"You're going to war for 12 hours,
342
760997
2005
“你参战12个小时
用武器射击目标
12:58
shooting weapons at targets,
343
763002
1991
射杀敌军战斗人员
13:00
directing kills on enemy combatants,
344
765008
2991
13:03
and then you get in the car
345
767999
2006
然后你钻进汽车
在20分钟内开车回到家
13:05
and you drive home and within 20 minutes,
346
770005
1982
之后便坐在晚餐桌前
13:07
you're sitting at the dinner table
347
772003
1991
和孩子们聊他们的功课。"
13:09
talking to your kids about their homework."
348
774009
1993
现在从这两种经历汇总求得心理平衡
13:11
Now, the psychological balancing
349
776002
1991
是极其困难的
13:13
of those experiences is incredibly tough,
350
778008
1993
事实上，这些无人机的飞行员
13:15
and in fact those drone pilots have
351
780001
2992
13:18
higher rates of PTSD than many
352
782993
2008
患上PTSD （创伤后压力症候群）的比率
比身在伊拉克的部队更高
13:20
of the units physically in Iraq.
353
785001
3005
但有些人更加担心
13:23
But some have worries that this
354
788006
1992
13:25
disconnection will lead to something else,
355
789998
1994
这种疏离
会使得实施战争罪行的考虑
13:27
that it might make the contemplation of war
356
792007
1998
变得更为容易，因为距离太远
13:29
crimes a lot easier when you have
357
794005
2005
“这就像是一个电子游戏。”
13:31
this distance. "It's like a video game,"
358
796010
1999
一位年轻的飞行员这样向我描述
13:33
is what one young pilot described to me
359
798009
1999
从远处抹杀敌军部队的感受
13:35
of taking out enemy troops from afar.
360
800008
1960
13:37
As anyone who's played Grand Theft Auto
361
801998
2995
任何玩过侠盗猎车手的人都知道
我们在电子世界中
13:40
knows, we do things in the video world
362
805008
3000
会做一些我们在面对面时不会做的事情。
13:43
that we wouldn't do face to face.
363
808008
2996
目前你从我这听到的
13:46
So much of what you're hearing from me
364
811004
1998
就是科技革命
13:48
is that there's another side
365
813002
1993
13:50
to technologic revolutions,
366
814995
2008
有着另外的一面
而它正在重塑我们现在
13:52
and that it's shaping our present
367
817003
1994
13:54
and maybe will shape our future of war.
368
818997
3001
甚至是未来的战争
13:57
Moore's Law is operative,
369
821998
2001
摩尔定律适用
13:59
but so's Murphy's Law.
370
823999
1998
墨菲法则同样适用
14:01
The fog of war isn't being lifted.
371
825997
2005
战争的迷雾并没有被吹散
敌人也要为此负责
14:03
The enemy has a vote.
372
828002
2010
我们在获得惊人的新能力的同时
14:05
We're gaining incredible new capabilities,
373
830012
1989
我们也在看到以及经历
14:07
but we're also seeing and experiencing
374
832001
2006
新的人性难题
14:09
new human dilemmas. Now,
375
834007
2000
有些时候这只是意外
14:11
sometimes these are just "oops" moments,
376
836007
1999
就像一个机器人公司的领头人
14:13
which is what the head of a robotics
377
838006
1992
14:15
company described it, you just have
378
839998
2011
描述的那样
有时意外无可避免
14:17
"oops" moments. Well, what are
379
842009
2000
可是在机器人的战争中，意外代表着什么？
14:19
"oops" moments with robots in war?
380
844009
1996
有些时候它们很搞笑
14:21
Well, sometimes they're funny. Sometimes,
381
846005
2001
有时他们就像
14:23
they're like that scene from the
382
848006
2002
埃迪.墨菲的电影“最佳防御”中的场景
14:25
Eddie Murphy movie "Best Defense,"
383
850008
2001
在现实中重演一般
14:27
playing out in reality, where they tested out
384
852009
2001
当他们在试用一个装备着机关枪的机器人时
14:29
a machine gun-armed robot, and during
385
854010
1988
14:31
the demonstration it started spinning
386
855998
2001
在模拟中它将机关枪对准了
14:33
in a circle and pointed its machine gun
387
857999
3009
那些旁观的重要人物们
并开始原地转圈
14:36
at the reviewing stand of VIPs.
388
861008
2995
幸亏那武器没有装载弹药
14:39
Fortunately the weapon wasn't loaded
389
864003
1993
14:41
and no one was hurt, but other times
390
865996
2010
也没有人受伤
但其他的时候，意外时刻非常悲惨
14:43
"oops" moments are tragic,
391
868006
1992
14:45
such as last year in South Africa, where
392
869998
2002
就像去年在南非
14:47
an anti-aircraft cannon had a
393
872000
2999
当一个对空炮发生了
14:50
"software glitch," and actually did turn on
394
874999
2999
“软件故障”时，它真的转过头来开火
14:53
and fired, and nine soldiers were killed.
395
877998
3004
导致了9名士兵死亡
我们的战争法律和责任
14:56
We have new wrinkles in the laws of war
396
881002
2997
14:59
and accountability. What do we do
397
883999
1997
也有了新的变化
15:01
with things like unmanned slaughter?
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我们该怎么处理像无人机屠杀这种事情？
无人机屠杀是什么？
15:03
What is unmanned slaughter?
399
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1998
我们已经有了三起
15:05
We've already had three instances of
400
890004
2000
我们以为掠夺者无人飞行载具攻击的
15:07
Predator drone strikes where we thought
401
892004
2000
是本.拉登但后来发现
15:09
we got bin Laden, and it turned out
402
894004
1994
15:11
not to be the case.
403
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2002
并非如此的事故
15:13
And this is where we're at right now.
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2008
这就是我们现在的处境
这还远远没到武装过的
15:15
This is not even talking about armed,
405
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2000
有着可以决定使用武力的权威的
15:17
autonomous systems
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1989
15:19
with full authority to use force.
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2013
自主系统
别想着这一天不会到来
15:21
And do not believe that that isn't coming.
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1994
在我的研究中我在
15:23
During my research I came across
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2007
五角大楼中见过了4项
15:25
four different Pentagon projects
410
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1985
15:27
on different aspects of that.
411
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2012
关于它的不同方面的项目
然后你就有了这样的问题：
15:29
And so you have this question:
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2002
这将对战争罪行有什么样的影响？
15:31
what does this lead to issues like
413
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1993
机器人没有感情
15:33
war crimes? Robots are emotionless, so
414
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1992
15:35
they don't get upset if their buddy is killed.
415
919995
3012
他们不会因为他们的战友被杀而悲伤
他们也不会因为愤怒
15:38
They don't commit crimes of rage
416
923007
1994
和复仇而犯罪
15:40
and revenge.
417
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2007
机器人没有感情
15:42
But robots are emotionless.
418
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2997
他们会将一位在轮椅上的80岁的老太太
15:45
They see an 80-year-old grandmother
419
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1999
与一架T-80坦克一视同仁
15:47
in a wheelchair the same way they see
420
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2000
他们都只是
15:49
a T-80 tank: they're both
421
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3002
一系列的0和1而已
15:52
just a series of zeroes and ones.
422
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2993
15:55
And so we have this question to figure out:
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所以我们需要解决这样的问题：
我们如何才能让20世纪的战争法则
15:58
How do we catch up our 20th century
424
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2003
衰老过时的
16:00
laws of war, that are so old right now
425
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1989
16:02
that they could qualify for Medicare,
426
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3008
足以去领退休医保的战争法则
迎头赶上21世纪的科技
16:05
to these 21st century technologies?
427
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3008
最后，做个总结
16:08
And so, in conclusion, I've talked about
428
953010
2987
16:11
what seems the future of war,
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3011
我大概预测了未来战争的趋势
但你们要注意到我只使用了
16:14
but notice that I've only used
430
959008
1990
16:16
real world examples and you've only seen
431
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2012
现实世界的例子
现实世界的图片和影像
16:18
real world pictures and videos.
432
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2001
这说明我们已经面对了极大的挑战
16:20
And so this sets a great challenge for
433
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2000
以及忧虑
16:22
all of us that we have to worry about well
434
967011
1986
16:24
before you have to worry about your
435
968997
2009
远在你们需要开始担心
Roomba 机器人汲取你们的生命之前
16:26
Roomba sucking the life away from you.
436
971006
2001
我们是否会放任事实的发展
16:28
Are we going to let the fact that what's
437
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1999
只是因为现在的现实所揭示的战争
16:30
unveiling itself right now in war
438
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3000
听起来像科幻小说
16:33
sounds like science fiction and therefore
439
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2991
16:36
keeps us in denial?
440
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2005
而拒绝承认现实？
我们是否能面对
16:38
Are we going to face the reality
441
983002
2004
21世纪的战争的现实？
16:40
of 21st century war?
442
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1993
16:42
Is our generation going to make the same
443
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2001
我们这一代是否会
16:44
mistake that a past generation did
444
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2009
重复上一代的错误
发射原子弹
16:46
with atomic weaponry, and not deal with
445
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1998
而不去及时处理相关的问题
16:48
the issues that surround it until
446
993007
1995
直到潘多拉的盒子被打开？
16:50
Pandora's box is already opened up?
447
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2007
我的观点可能是错误的
16:52
Now, I could be wrong on this, and
448
997009
1998
一位五角大楼的机器人专家
16:54
one Pentagon robot scientist told me
449
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2004
这么告诉我。他说：
16:56
that I was. He said, "There's no real
450
1001011
1994
“对机器人而言，社会、伦理或道德上的问题
16:58
social, ethical, moral issues when it comes
451
1003005
1995
17:00
to robots.
452
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1998
是不存在的
17:02
That is," he added, "unless the machine
453
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2001
当然，”他接着说，“除非那个机器人
17:04
kills the wrong people repeatedly.
454
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3010
一再杀死不该杀的人”
“但那只是一个产品回收的问题。”
17:07
Then it's just a product recall issue."
455
1012009
2989
17:10
And so the ending point for this is
456
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3011
所以这一切的终点
实际上可以参考好莱坞
17:13
that actually, we can turn to Hollywood.
457
1018009
5002
几年前，好莱坞聚集了
17:18
A few years ago, Hollywood gathered
458
1023011
1996
所有的有名的主角
17:20
all the top characters and created
459
1025007
3006
然后列出了好莱坞历史上前100位英雄
17:23
a list of the top 100 heroes and
460
1028013
1997
和前100号反面人物
17:25
top 100 villains of all of Hollywood history,
461
1030010
2990
17:28
the characters that represented the best
462
1033000
2006
可以代表人类最好
和最坏的角色。
17:30
and worst of humanity.
463
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1992
17:32
Only one character made it onto both lists:
464
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4015
只有一个角色同时登上了这两个名单：
终结者，一个杀戮机械
17:36
The Terminator, a robot killing machine.
465
1041013
2996
所以这指明了
17:39
And so that points to the fact that
466
1044009
1988
17:41
our machines can be used
467
1045997
2013
我们的机械可以用来
做好事也可以做坏事
17:43
for both good and evil, but for me
468
1048010
1999
但对我来说，这意味着人类也拥有着这样的
17:45
it points to the fact that there's a duality
469
1050009
1996
矛盾的双面性
17:47
of humans as well.
470
1052005
3000
这一周是祝贺我们创造力的一周。
17:50
This week is a celebration
471
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1998
我们的创造力
17:52
of our creativity. Our creativity
472
1057003
1999
将我们这个物种带上太空
17:54
has taken our species to the stars.
473
1059002
1998
17:56
Our creativity has created works of arts
474
1061000
2007
我们的创造力产生了伟大的艺术作品
以及文学作品来表达人类之爱
17:58
and literature to express our love.
475
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2996
而现在，我们将创造力
18:01
And now, we're using our creativity
476
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1998
用在了一个特殊领域
18:03
in a certain direction, to build fantastic
477
1068001
1993
用于制造具有强大能力的奇异机械
18:05
machines with incredible capabilities,
478
1070009
2987
18:08
maybe even one day
479
1072996
2009
甚至可能某一天
会制造出一个全新的物种。
18:10
an entirely new species.
480
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2997
但我们这么做的
18:13
But one of the main reasons that we're
481
1078002
2005
主要原因之一却是因为
18:15
doing that is because of our drive
482
1080007
1998
我们想要毁灭他人的欲望
18:17
to destroy each other, and so the question
483
1082005
3000
所有人都需要问这样一个问题：
18:20
we all should ask:
484
1085005
1994
18:22
is it our machines, or is it us
485
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2000
究竟是机械还是我们自身
18:24
that's wired for war?
486
1088999
2007
才是为战争而生的？
谢谢。（掌声）
18:26
Thank you. (Applause)
487
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2098
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
P.W. Singer - Military analystIn P.W. Singer's most recent book, "Wired for War," he studies robotic and drone warfighters -- and explores how these new war machines are changing the very nature of human conflict. He has also written on other facets of modern war, including private armies and child soldiers.
Why you should listen
Peter Warren Singer is the director of the 21st Century Defense Initiative at the Brookings Institution -- where his research and analysis offer an eye-opening take on what the 21st century holds for war and foreign policy. His latest book, Wired for War, examines how the US military has been, in the words of a recent US Navy recruiting ad, "working hard to get soldiers off the front lines" and replacing humans with machines for bombing, flying and spying. He asks big questions: What will the rise of war machines mean to traditional notions of the battlefield, like honor? His 2003 book Corporate Warriors was a prescient look at private military forces. It's essential reading for anyone curious about what went on to happen in Iraq involving these quasi-armies.
Singer is a prolific writer and essayist (for Brookings, for newspapers, and for Wired.com's great Threat Level), and is expert at linking popular culture with hard news on what's coming next from the military-industrial complex. Recommended: his recent piece for Brookings called "A Look at the Pentagon's Five-Step Plan for Making Iron Man Real."
P.W. Singer | Speaker | TED.com