Albert-László Barabási: The real relationship between your age and your chance of success
Albert-László Barabási: Hubungan sebenarnya antara usia dan kemungkinan sukses Anda
A pioneer in network science, Albert-László Barabási uncovers the hidden order behind complex systems. Full bio
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a very special day for me,
for joining the party.
there's someone there to spoil it. Right?
selalu ada yang merusaknya. Benar, 'kan?
another physicist along to do so.
ahli fisika lain untuk menemani saya.
also Albert -- and he's the one who said
Albert - dan dia yang mengatakan
his great contributions to science
di bidang ilmu pengetahuan
berkontribusi.
Wikipedia
he is telling me, and us,
kepada saya, dan kita,
of luck within my career.
sepanjang karier saya.
very interested in networks,
dengan jaringan,
to publish a few key papers
mempublikasikan sejumlah makalah penting
of scale-free networks
that we call network science today.
kita kenal sebagai ilmu jaringan.
you can get a PhD now in network science
meraih gelar PhD di bidang ilmu jaringan
di seluruh dunia.
first as a sabbatical,
pertama-tama sebagai cuti panjang,
in another type of network:
jaringan tipe lain:
jaringan dalam diri kita sendiri,
and the metabolites link to each other
saling berkaitan satu sama lain
to a major explosion within medicine,
dalam pengobatan,
Division at Harvard,
di Harvard,
who are using this perspective
menggunakan sudut pandang ini
mengembangkan pengobatan baru.
this idea of networks
ide mengenai jaringan ini
bidang jaringan
melakukan itu?
sedikit banyak,
by the networks we're part of --
jaringan yang jadi bagian kita -
they can pull us back.
atau menarik kita ke belakang.
the knowledge and big data and expertise
ilmu dan mahadata dan keahlian
how these things happen.
hal ini bisa terjadi.
of galleries in museums
jaringan galeri di museum
that we mapped out last year,
the success of an artist
seorang seniman dengan amat akurat
that he or she had in their career.
pertama seniman tersebut.
is not only about networks;
bukan hanya mengenai jaringan;
other dimensions to that.
kesuksesan.
we need for success, obviously,
untuk mencapai sukses
between performance and success.
kinerja dan sukses.
what kind of paintings you paint,
lukisan apa yang Anda buat,
notices from what you did,
lihat dari apa yang Anda lakukan,
and how does it reward you for it?
menghadiahi Anda?
but your success is about all of us.
sukses Anda adalah tentang kita semua.
important shift for us,
sangat penting bagi kita,
as being a collective measure
sukses sebagai ukuran kolektif
there are multiple data points about that.
maka ada berbagai titik data mengenainya.
we exercise, we practice,
kita berolah raga, kita berlatih,
that performance leads to success.
kinerja membawa kesuksesan.
started to explore,
are very, very different animals
adalah dua hal yang amat berbeda
the mathematics of the problem.
the fastest man on earth, Usain Bolt.
manusia tercapat di dunia, Usain Bolt.
the competitions that he enters.
pertandingan yang ia ikuti.
because we have a chronometer
kita punya kronometer untuk
is that when he wins,
saat ia menang,
outrunning his competition.
lebih cepat daripada saingannya.
than the one who loses the race.
cepat daripada orang yang kalah.
one percent faster than the second one,
lebih cepat daripada pemenang kedua,
10 times faster than I do --
daripada saya -
trust me on that.
percayalah.
to measure performance,
sangat menarik:
no huge variations in human performance.
kinerja manusia.
to measure the differences.
untuk mengukur perbedaannya.
see the good from the best ones,
yang baik dan terbaik,
are very hard to distinguish.
sangat sulit dibedakan.
is that most of us work in areas
bekerja dalam bidang
to gauge our performance.
untuk mengukur kinerja kita.
when it comes to our performance.
dalam hal kinerja.
a different topic, like books.
buku misalnya.
how many people read your work.
berapa banyak orang membaca karya mereka.
came out in 2009,
pada tahun 2009,
editor saya,
Who is the competition?
Siapa saingan saya?
kompetitor yang hebat.
"The Lost Symbol,"
there's hardly any difference
hampir tidak ada perbedaan
atau buku saya
works a little harder,
sedikit lebih keras,
jadi nomor satu,
who ended up at the top.
ditentukan dengan tidak sengaja.
I'm a data person, right?
saya adalah orang yang senang data, kan?
the sales for Nicholas Sparks.
untuk Nicholas Sparks.
that opening weekend,
di akhir minggu itu,
a hundred thousand copies,
seratus ribu eksemplar,
of the "New York Times" best-seller list
daftar buku paling laku "New York Times"
eksemplar tiap minggu,
what he needed to be number one.
yang dibutuhkan untuk menjadi nomor satu.
who sold 1.2 million copies that weekend.
1,2 juta eksemplar di akhir minggu itu.
is because it shows that, really,
angka menunjukkan bahwa, sungguh,
slightly more than the second best
lebih dari yang terbaik kedua
tingkat besaran lebih banyak,
we earn it through our performance.
melalui kinerja.
performance, what we do, is bounded,
kinerja, apa kita lakukan, itu terbatas
collective, is unbounded,
tidak terbatas,
huge differences in success
dalam kesuksesan
differences in performance?
dalam kinerja?
that I devoted to that very question.
untuk membahas pertanyaan ini.
to go over all of that,
untuk membahasnya,
to the question of,
when should that appear?
kapan harus muncul?
and ask ourselves:
dan bertanya pada diri sendiri:
this ridiculous statement,
pernyataan bodoh ini,
you could actually be creative?
sebelum usia 30?
and he saw all these fabulous physicists
melihat semua ahli fisika hebat ini
and modern physics,
dan fisika modern,
and early 30s when they did so.
saat mereka menemukan hal-hal itu.
bias observasional,
a whole field of genius research
ada bidang penelitian jenius
we admire from the past
kita kagumi di masa lalu
they made their biggest contribution,
memberikan kontribusi terbesar mereka,
whether that's science,
ilmu pengetahuan,
in their 20s, 30s, early 40s at most.
20-an, 30-an, paling lambat awal 40-an.
with this genius research.
memiliki masalah.
the impression to us
menciptakan pandangan
bias observasional,
and doesn't look at ordinary scientists
dan tidak melihat para ilmuwan biasa
vanishes as we age?
dengan bertambahnya usia?
ingin kami coba,
to actually have references.
scientist like myself,
seperti saya,
that I've published
I was still in Romania when I did so,
saya masih di Romania saat itu,
the impact of the paper,
dampak publikasi ilmiah itu,
have been written that cited that work.
yang mengutip hasil kerja saya
has roughly three different stages.
memiliki tiga stadium berbeda.
where I had to work a lot
harus banyak bekerja
about what I do, right?
yang saya lakukan.
dengan ilmu material.
for myself networks
ilmu jaringan
paper to the other one.
ke yang lain.
That was that stage of my career.
Di stadium karier saya saat itu.
what happens right now?
terjadi sekarang?
hasn't been enough time passed yet
waktu berlalu
those papers will get;
ilmiah tersebut;
the genius research, is right,
penelitian jenius, benar,
how does this really happen,
cari tahu bagaimana ini terjadi,
ilmu pengetahuan.
the selection bias,
of every single scientist
karier semua ilmuwan
what was their personal best,
pencapaian terbaik mereka,
or they never did,
even their personal best.
bahkan pencapaian terbaik mereka.
on the top of that career,
di atas karier itu,
their biggest discovery?
penemuan terbesar mereka?
that you make your biggest discovery,
penemuan terbesar Anda,
or 10 years into your career?
10 tahun setelah memulai karier?
what we call "academic age."
disebut "usia akademis"
when you publish your first papers.
saat Anda menerbitkan makalah pertama.
your highest-impact paper.
berdampak besar
the genius research is right.
penelitian jenius benar.
their highest-impact paper
makalah berdampak besar
I'm exactly 30 years into my career,
karier saya sudah 30 tahun,
that would have a higher impact
makalah berdampak lebih besar
according to this data.
pada stadium karier tersebut.
dengan benar.
who makes random contribution to science?
acak bagi ilmu pengetahuan?
of the scientist?
produktivitas ilmuwan tersebut?
in year one, 10 or 20 in your career,
dalam satu, 10 atau 20 tahun karier Anda,
of having the impact
kemungkinan dampak yang terjadi
there's only one explanation for that,
hanya ada satu penjelasan,
every project we do,
setiap proyek yang kita kerjakan,
of being our personal best.
untuk menjadi yang terbaik.
a lottery ticket.
yang kita beli,
most of their lottery tickets
tiket undian mereka
karier mereka,
their productivity decreases.
produktivitas mereka menurun.
any more lottery tickets.
membeli tiket undian.
they would not be creative.
tidak lagi kreatif.
the conclusion is very simple:
kesimpulannya sederhana:
or very last paper of your career.
atau terakhir Anda.
in the space of the projects.
dalam cakupan proyek Anda.
who got the Nobel Prize in Physics
pemenang Hadiah Nobel Fisika
in his career as a graduate student.
saat masih mahasiswa pasca sarjana.
by Yale University.
oleh Universitas Yale.
to Virginia Commonwealth University,
Universitas Virginia Commonwealth,
that he published a paper
ia mempublikasikan makalah
the Nobel Prize for Chemistry.
Hadiah Nobel Kimia 15 tahun kemudian.
well, science is special,
ilmu pengetahuan itu spesial,
where we need to be creative?
yang memerlukan kreativitas?
typical example: entrepreneurship.
wirausaha.
the TechCrunch Awards and other awards,
Awards dan penghargaan lain
is late 20s, very early 30s.
akhir 20-an, awal 30-an.
some of the biggest VC firms --
beberapa firma VC terbesar -
berusia awal 30-an.
kita tahu;
that youth equals success.
bahwa usia muda berarti sukses.
about forming a company --
mendirikan perusahaan-
trying, trying, trying --
usaha, usaha, usaha --
of these individuals actually put out
yang benar-benar mendirikan
peluncuran yang berhasil.
looked at exactly that question.
meneliti hal ini.
those in the 20s and 30s
berusia 20-an dan 30-an
form lots of companies,
membentuk banyak perusahaan,
gagal
what you see in this particular plot,
yang dilihat di alur ini,
you will actually hit the stock market
kemungkinan mencapai pasar modal
that if you are in the 50s,
bahwa jika Anda berusia 50-an
to actually have a successful exit
sukses melakukan peluncuran
that we see, actually?
sebenarnya kita lihat?
tidak memiliki usia.
bukan demikian?
at the end of the day,
and succeed over and over.
kembali ke lab saya.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Albert-László Barabási - Network scientistA pioneer in network science, Albert-László Barabási uncovers the hidden order behind complex systems.
Why you should listen
Albert-László Barabási is fascinated by a wide range of topics, from the structure of the brain and treating diseases with network medicine to the emergence of success in art and how science really works. His work uses the quantitative tools of network science, a research field that he pioneered, and led to the discovery of scale-free networks, helping explain the emergence of many natural, technological and social networks.
Barabási is the Robert Gray Dodge Professor of Network Science at Northeastern University and holds an appointment in the Department of Medicine at Harvard Medical School. He splits his time with Budapest, where he runs a European Research Council project at Central European University. A Hungarian born native of Transylvania, Romania, he received his masters in theoretical physics at the Eötvös University in Budapest, Hungary and his PhD three years later at Boston University.
Barabási’s latest book is The Formula: The Universal Laws of Success. He is also the author of Network Science, Linked and Bursts. He co-edited Network Medicine and The Structure and Dynamics of Networks. His books have been translated into over twenty languages.
Albert-László Barabási | Speaker | TED.com