TED2007
Hans Rosling: New insights on poverty
Hans Rosling otkriva nove poglede na siromaštvo
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Istraživač Hans Rosling koristi svoje kul alate za podatke da pokaže kako se zemlje izvlače iz siromaštva. Demonstrira "Dolar ulicu", upoređujući domaćinstva s različitim prihodima preko celog sveta. A onda radi nešto stvarno neverovatno.
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:25
I told you three things last year.
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Prošle godine sam vam rekao tri stvari.
00:27
I told you that the statistics of the world
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Rekao sam vam da statistički podaci o svetu
00:30
have not been made properly available.
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nisu na raspolaganju na pravi način.
00:33
Because of that, we still have the old mindset
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Zbog toga i dalje imamo zastarelo mišljenje
00:35
of developing in industrialized countries, which is wrong.
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o visoko razvijenim zemljama i zemljama u razvoju.
00:39
And that animated graphics can make a difference.
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I da animirani grafički prikazi mogu uticati na promenu.
00:44
Things are changing
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Stvari se menjaju.
00:46
and today, on the United Nations Statistic Division Home Page,
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Danas, na web stranici Odeljenja za Statistiku Ujedinjenih Nacija,
00:50
it says, by first of May, full access to the databases.
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piše, od prvog maja, moguć puni pristup bazama podataka.
00:55
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
00:58
And if I could share the image with you on the screen.
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I, ako mogu da vam pokažem sliku na ekranu.
01:03
So three things have happened.
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Dakle, tri stvari su se dogodile.
01:04
U.N. opened their statistic databases,
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UN su otvorili pristup svojim podacima,
01:07
and we have a new version of the software
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a mi imamo novu verziju softvera
01:11
up working as a beta on the net,
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koja radi na mreži,
01:13
so you don't have to download it any longer.
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pa ne morate više da je skidate.
01:16
And let me repeat what you saw last year.
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I, da ponovim šta ste videli prošle godine.
01:18
The bubbles are the countries.
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Mehurići su zemlje.
01:19
Here you have the fertility rate -- the number of children per woman --
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Ovo ovde je plodnost – broj dece po svakoj ženi –
01:23
and there you have the length of life in years.
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a ovde je dužina života u godinama.
01:27
This is 1950 -- those were the industrialized countries,
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Ovde je 1950. – ovo su visoko razvijene zemlje,
01:30
those were developing countries.
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a ovde su zemlje u razvoju.
01:31
At that time there was a "we" and "them."
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Nekad smo se delili na „mi“ i „oni“:
01:33
There was a huge difference in the world.
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Velike razlike su vladale u svetu.
01:35
But then it changed, and it went on quite well.
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Ali odjednom se to promenilo.
01:39
And this is what happens.
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I evo što se događa.
01:41
You can see how China is the red, big bubble.
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Veliki crveni mehur je Kina,
01:44
The blue there is India.
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a plavi ovde je Indija.
01:45
And they go over all this -- I'm going to try to be
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Ove godine ću da pokušam
01:48
a little more serious this year in showing you
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da budem malo ozbiljniji i pokazati vam
01:50
how things really changed.
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kako su se stvari zaista promenile.
01:53
And it's Africa that stands out as the problem down here, doesn't it?
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Afrika se ističe kao problem ovde dole, zar ne?
01:56
Large families still, and the HIV epidemic
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Porodice su još velike, a HIV epidemija
01:59
brought down the countries like this.
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je unazadila takve zemlje.
02:01
This is more or less what we saw last year,
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To je manje-više ono što smo videli prošle godine,
02:04
and this is how it will go on into the future.
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a evo kako će se to razvijati ubuduće.
02:07
And I will talk on, is this possible?
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I ja ću dalje govoriti, je li to moguće?
02:09
Because you see now, I presented statistics that don't exist.
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Jer, vidite, prikazujem vam statistike koje još ne postoje.
02:13
Because this is where we are.
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Jer danas smo ovde.
02:15
Will it be possible that this will happen?
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Je li moguće da se to dogodi?
02:19
I cover my lifetime here, you know?
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Ovde prikazujem svoj celi životni vek, znate?
02:21
I expect to live 100 years.
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Očekujem da ću da živim 100 godina.
02:23
And this is where we are today.
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A ovde smo danas.
02:25
Now could we look here instead at the economic situation in the world?
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Možemo li ovde da pogledamo ekonomsku situaciju u svetu?
02:33
And I would like to show that against child survival.
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I hteo bih da je uporedim s preživljavanjem dece.
02:38
We'll swap the axis.
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Zamenićemo ose:
02:40
Here you have child mortality -- that is, survival --
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ovde je smrtnost dece – to jest, preživljavanje –
02:44
four kids dying there, 200 dying there.
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četvoro dece umire ovde, 200 onde.
02:47
And this is GDP per capita on this axis.
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A ovo je BDP po stanovniku, na ovoj osi.
02:50
And this was 2007.
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A ovo je 2007.
02:53
And if I go back in time, I've added some historical statistics --
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Ako vratim vreme, dodao sam malo istorijskih statistika –
02:57
here we go, here we go, here we go -- not so much statistics 100 years ago.
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evo nas - nije bilo puno statističkih podataka pre 100 godina.
03:03
Some countries still had statistics.
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Neke zemlje su još i tada imale statistike.
03:05
We are looking down in the archive,
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Idemo do početka arhive i
03:07
and when we are down into 1820,
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dođemo do 1820. godine.
03:11
there is only Austria and Sweden that can produce numbers.
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Evo, jedino Austrija i Švedska imaju tako stare statistike.
03:15
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
03:18
But they were down here. They had 1,000 dollars per person per year.
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Ali one su bile ovde dole. Imale su 1000 dolara po osobi godišnje.
03:22
And they lost one-fifth of their kids before their first birthday.
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A umirala je petina njihove dece pre svog prvog rođendana.
03:26
So this is what happens in the world, if we play the entire world.
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Evo što se dešava u svetu, ako pustimo ceo svet,
03:29
How they got slowly richer and richer,
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kako su polagano postajali bogatiji,
03:32
and they add statistics.
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dodavali su i statističke podatke.
03:33
Isn't it beautiful when they get statistics?
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Nije li prelepo kad imamo podatke?
03:35
You see the importance of that?
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Vidite li koliko je to važno?
03:37
And here, children don't live longer.
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A ovde, deca ne žive duže.
03:39
The last century, 1870, was bad for the kids in Europe,
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Prošlog veka, 1870., bilo loše za decu u Europi,
03:43
because most of this statistics is Europe.
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jer većina ovih podataka je za Evropu.
03:45
It was only by the turn of the century
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Tek na kraju veka
03:48
that more than 90 percent of the children survived their first year.
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je više od 90% dece doživelo prvi rođendan.
03:51
This is India coming up, with the first data from India.
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Evo Indije, s prvim njihovim podacima.
03:54
And this is the United States moving away here, earning more money.
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A ovde je SAD kako se pomera ovde, zarađujući sve više novca.
03:59
And we will soon see China coming up in the very far end corner here.
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Uskoro ćemo da vidimo Kinu kako se pojavljuje na samoj ivici.
04:04
And it moves up with Mao Tse-Tung getting health,
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Kreće se prema gore jer joj Mao Tse Tung daje zdravlje,
04:06
not getting so rich.
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ne previše bogatstva.
04:07
There he died, then Deng Xiaoping brings money.
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Ovde je umro, a Deng Xiaoping donosi novac,
04:10
It moves this way over here.
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pa se Kina kreće ovamo.
04:12
And the bubbles keep moving up there,
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A mehurići se i dalje penju,
04:14
and this is what the world looks like today.
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i ovako svet izgleda danas.
04:16
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
04:22
Let us have a look at the United States.
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Pogledajmo sad SAD.
04:25
We have a function here -- I can tell the world, "Stay where you are."
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Imam funkciju ovde -- kojom mogu reći svetu da ostane kakav je.
04:29
And I take the United States -- we still want to see the background --
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Onda uzmem SAD – jer želimo da vidimo pozadinu --
04:32
I put them up like this, and now we go backwards.
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stavim ih ovako, i idemo unazad.
04:35
And we can see that the United States
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I vidimo da se SAD pomeraju
04:38
goes to the right of the mainstream.
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prema desno od većine.
04:41
They are on the money side all the time.
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Sve vreme imaju više novca od ostalih.
04:44
And down in 1915, the United States was a neighbor of India --
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1915. SAD su imale novca kao Indija.
04:50
present, contemporary India.
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Indija danas.
04:52
And that means United States was richer,
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A to znači da su SAD bile bogatije,
04:54
but lost more kids than India is doing today, proportionally.
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ali im je umiralo više dece nego Indiji danas, proporcionalno.
04:59
And look here -- compare to the Philippines of today.
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A pogledajte ovde. Uporedite ih s Filipinima danas.
05:02
The Philippines of today has almost the same economy
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Filipini danas imaju skoro istu ekonomsku snagu
05:06
as the United States during the First World War.
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kao SAD za vreme Prvog Svetskog Rata.
05:08
But we have to bring United States forward quite a while
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Ali SAD moramo pomeriti prilično u budućnost
05:12
to find the same health of the United States
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da postignu isti nivo kvaliteta zdravstvenog sistema
05:15
as we have in the Philippines.
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kao što ga imaju Filipini danas.
05:17
About 1957 here, the health of the United States
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Tek oko 1957. je zdravstvo u SAD-u
05:20
is the same as the Philippines.
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na istom nivou kao na Filipinima danas.
05:22
And this is the drama of this world which many call globalized,
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I to je ona drama sveta koju mnogi zovu globalizacija:
05:25
is that Asia, Arabic countries, Latin America,
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Azija, Arapske zemlje, Latinska Amerika
05:28
are much more ahead in being healthy, educated,
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su daleko naprednije u zdravstvenom sistemu, obrazovanju
05:33
having human resources than they are economically.
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i ljudskim resursima nego što su ekonomski.
05:36
There's a discrepancy in what's happening today
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Postoji raskorak u onome što se danas dešava
05:38
in the emerging economies.
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u novim „ekonomijama“.
05:40
There now, social benefits, social progress,
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U njima društvene beneficije, društveni napredak
05:44
are going ahead of economical progress.
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predvode pred ekonomskim napretkom.
05:47
And 1957 -- the United States had the same economy as Chile has today.
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A 1957. SAD su imale istu ekonomsku moć kao Čile danas.
05:54
And how long do we have to bring United States
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I koliko daleko moramo pomaknuti SAD
05:57
to get the same health as Chile has today?
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da bi imali istu razinu zdravlja kao Čile danas?
06:00
I think we have to go, there -- we have 2001, or 2002 --
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Mislim da moramo ići do .. evo 2001. ili 2002.
06:05
the United States has the same health as Chile.
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SAD su zdrave kao Čile danas.
06:07
Chile's catching up!
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Čile brzo hvata korak!
06:09
Within some years Chile may have better child survival
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Za nekoliko godina možda će Čile
06:11
than the United States.
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imati manju smrtnost novorođenčadi nego SAD.
06:13
This is really a change, that you have this lag
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To je stvarno promena,
06:16
of more or less 30, 40 years' difference on the health.
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da postoji 30 do 40 godina ralike u zdravlju.
06:21
And behind the health is the educational level.
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A nakon zdravlja dolazi nivo obrazovanosti.
06:23
And there's a lot of infrastructure things,
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A ima i puno infrastrukturnih stvari
06:25
and general human resources are there.
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i ljudskih resursa.
06:28
Now we can take away this --
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Sad to možemo pomeriti.
06:31
and I would like to show you the rate of speed,
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Hteo bih da vam pokažem brzinu promene,
06:35
the rate of change, how fast they have gone.
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kako se brzo sve događa.
06:38
And we go back to 1920, and I want to look at Japan.
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Idemo nazad u 1920. i želim da pogledam Japan.
06:46
And I want to look at Sweden and the United States.
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I Švedsku i SAD.
06:49
And I'm going to stage a race here
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Organizovaću trku
06:51
between this sort of yellowish Ford here
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između žućkastog Forda
06:54
and the red Toyota down there,
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i crvene Toyote
06:56
and the brownish Volvo.
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i smeđkastog Volva.
06:58
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
07:00
And here we go. Here we go.
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I evo idemo, krećemo.
07:02
The Toyota has a very bad start down here, you can see,
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Toyota ima loš start ovde dole, vidite
07:05
and the United States Ford is going off-road there.
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a SAD idu ovde po terenu van puta.
07:08
And the Volvo is doing quite fine.
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A Volvu ide sasvim fino.
07:09
This is the war. The Toyota got off track, and now
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Ovde je rat. Toyota je malo sletela s puta,
07:11
the Toyota is coming on the healthier side of Sweden --
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ali se sad vraća i postaje zdravija od Švedske –
07:14
can you see that?
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vidite li to?
07:15
And they are taking over Sweden,
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Pretiču Švedsku
07:16
and they are now healthier than Sweden.
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i sad su zdraviji od Švedske.
07:18
That's the part where I sold the Volvo and bought the Toyota.
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To je trenutak u kome sam prodao svoj Volvo i kupio Toyotu.
07:20
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
07:23
And now we can see that the rate of change was enormous in Japan.
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Sad jasno vidimo da je brzina promene u Japanu bila enormna.
07:27
They really caught up.
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Stvarno su nas dostigli.
07:29
And this changes gradually.
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To se menja postupno.
07:31
We have to look over generations to understand it.
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Moramo gledati kroz generacije da bismo to shvatili.
07:34
And let me show you my own sort of family history --
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Dozvolite da vam pokažem istoriju moje porodice –
07:39
we made these graphs here.
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napravili smo grafik.
07:41
And this is the same thing, money down there, and health, you know?
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To je ista stvar, novac dole, a ovde zdravlje.
07:45
And this is my family.
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To je moja porodica.
07:48
This is Sweden, 1830, when my great-great-grandma was born.
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Ovo je Švedska, 1830., kad je moja pra-pra-baka rođena.
07:53
Sweden was like Sierra Leone today.
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Švedska je bila kao Siera Leone danas.
07:56
And this is when great-grandma was born, 1863.
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Ovde je pra-baka rođena, 1863.
08:00
And Sweden was like Mozambique.
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A Švedska je bila kao Mozambik.
08:02
And this is when my grandma was born, 1891.
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A ovde je rođena moja baka, 1891.
08:04
She took care of me as a child,
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Brinula se za mene kad sam bio mali,
08:06
so I'm not talking about statistic now --
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dakle više ne govorim o statistici
08:08
now it's oral history in my family.
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već o istoriji u mojoj porodici.
08:11
That's when I believe statistics,
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To je kad verujem statistici,
08:12
when it's grandma-verified statistics.
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kad je potvrdi moja baka.
08:15
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
08:18
I think it's the best way of verifying historical statistics.
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Mislim da je to najbolji način provere istorijske statistike.
08:21
Sweden was like Ghana.
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Švedska je bila poput Gane.
08:22
It's interesting to see the enormous diversity
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Zanimljivo je gledati ogromnu raznolikost
08:25
within sub-Saharan Africa.
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u Subsaharskoj Africi.
08:28
I told you last year, I'll tell you again,
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Prošle godine sam vam rekao, i reći ću vam opet,
08:30
my mother was born in Egypt, and I -- who am I?
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moja je majka rođena u Egiptu, a … tko sam ja ?
08:33
I'm the Mexican in the family.
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Ja sam Meksikanac u našoj porodici.
08:35
And my daughter, she was born in Chile,
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A moja ćerka je rođena u Čileu,
08:37
and the grand-daughter was born in Singapore,
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a unuka u Singapuru,
08:39
now the healthiest country on this Earth.
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danas najzdravijoj zemlji na svetu.
08:41
It bypassed Sweden about two to three years ago,
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Pretekla je Švedsku pre dve-tri godine,
08:43
with better child survival.
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s manjom smrtnosti dece.
08:45
But they're very small, you know?
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Ali oni su jako maleni, znate.
08:46
They're so close to the hospital we can never
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Svi su tako blizu bolnici da ih nikad
08:48
beat them out in these forests.
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u tome ne možemo preteći.
08:49
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
08:52
But homage to Singapore.
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Ali svaka čast Singapuru.
08:53
Singapore is the best one.
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Singapur je danas najbolji.
08:55
Now this looks also like a very good story.
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Ovo izgleda kao dobra priča.
08:59
But it's not really that easy, that it's all a good story.
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Ali u stvarnosti nije to sve tako lako, da sve bude dobra priča.
09:03
Because I have to show you one of the other facilities.
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Moram da vam pokažem još jednu mogućnost alata.
09:06
We can also make the color here represent the variable --
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Možemo takođe da napravimo da boja predstavlja varijablu.
09:11
and what am I choosing here?
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Šta ću odabrati ovde?
09:12
Carbon-dioxide emission, metric ton per capita.
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Emisiju ugljen-dioksida, metričke tone po stanovniku.
09:17
This is 1962, and United States was emitting 16 tons per person.
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Ovo je 1962. kad su SAD emitovale 16 tona po osobi.
09:22
And China was emitting 0.6,
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Kina je emitovala 0.6
09:24
and India was emitting 0.32 tons per capita.
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a Indija 0.32 po stanovniku.
09:28
And what happens when we moved on?
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A šta se dešava kad krenemo napred?
09:31
Well, you see the nice story of getting richer
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Evo, vidite lepu priču kako se postaje bogatiji
09:33
and getting healthier --
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i zdraviji.
09:34
everyone did it at the cost of emission of carbon dioxide.
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Svi su to postigli na račun emisije ugljen-dioksida.
09:39
There is no one who has done it so far.
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Niko to još nije uspeo da postigne drugačije.
09:42
And we don't have all the updated data
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Nemamo sveže podatke
09:45
any longer, because this is really hot data today.
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jer su to danas „vrući“ podaci.
09:48
And there we are, 2001.
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Evo nas u 2001.
09:51
And in the discussion I attended with global leaders, you know,
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U razgovorima sa svetskim vođama, znate,
09:55
many say now the problem is that the emerging economies,
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mnogi kažu da je problem u novim ekonomijama
09:59
they are getting out too much carbon dioxide.
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koje emituju previše ugljen-dioksida.
10:02
The Minister of the Environment of India said,
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Ministar Okoline Indije je rekao
10:04
"Well, you were the one who caused the problem."
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„Vi ste ti koji su prouzrokovali problem.
10:07
The OECD countries -- the high-income countries --
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Zemlje OECD-a -- bogate zemlje –
10:10
they were the ones who caused the climate change.
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one su izazvale klimatske promene.
10:13
"But we forgive you, because you didn't know it.
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Ali, mi vam to opraštamo, jer niste znali.
10:15
But from now on, we count per capita.
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Ali od sada, računamo po stanovniku.
10:18
From now on we count per capita.
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Od sada, računamo po stanovniku.
10:20
And everyone is responsible for the per capita emission."
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I svako je odgovoran za emisiju po stanovniku."
10:23
This really shows you, we have not seen good economic
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Ovo vam stvarno pokazuje da nismo nigde videli ekonomski
10:26
and health progress anywhere in the world
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i zdravstveni napredak
10:28
without destroying the climate.
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bez uništavanja okoline.
10:33
And this is really what has to be changed.
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A to zaista mora da se promeni.
10:36
I've been criticized for showing you a too positive image of the world,
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Kritikovali su me da pokazujem previše pozitivnu sliku sveta,
10:39
but I don't think it's like this.
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ali ja ne mislim da je to tako.
10:41
The world is quite a messy place.
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Svet je prilično neuredno mesto.
10:43
This we can call Dollar Street.
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Ovo možemo zvati Dolarskom ulicom.
10:45
Everyone lives on this street here.
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Svi žive u ovoj ulici ovde.
10:47
What they earn here -- what number they live on --
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Kućni broj na kojem žive odgovara
10:50
is how much they earn per day.
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količini dolara koju zarade na dan.
10:51
This family earns about one dollar per day.
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Ova porodica zarađuje oko jednog dolara na dan.
10:55
We drive up the street here,
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Vozimo se ulicom
10:56
we find a family here which earns about two to three dollars a day.
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i dođemo do porodice koja zarađuje dva do tri dolara na dan.
11:00
And we drive away here -- we find the first garden in the street,
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Vozimo se dalje i pojavljuje se prva bašta u ulici.
11:03
and they earn 10 to 50 dollars a day.
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Oni zarađuju 10 do 50 dolara na dan.
11:05
And how do they live?
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A kako oni žive?
11:07
If we look at the bed here, we can see
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Ako pogledamo krevet, vidimo
11:10
that they sleep on a rug on the floor.
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da spavaju na prostirci na podu.
11:13
This is what poverty line is --
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Evo šta je granica siromaštva –
11:15
80 percent of the family income is just to cover the energy needs,
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80% porodičnih prihoda služi za pokrivanje energetskih potreba,
11:18
the food for the day.
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hrane za taj dan.
11:20
This is two to five dollars. You have a bed.
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Ovde je dva do pet dolara, imate krevet.
11:23
And here it's a much nicer bedroom, you can see.
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A ovde je puno lepša spavaća soba.
11:26
I lectured on this for Ikea, and they wanted to see
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Držao sam ovo predavanje za Ikeu
11:28
the sofa immediately here.
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i oni su odmah hteli da vide ovde sofu.
11:30
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
11:32
And this is the sofa, how it will emerge from there.
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A evo ovde sofe, kako se pojavi odavde.
11:36
And the interesting thing, when you go around here in the photo panorama,
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A zanimljivo je, kad pogledate okolo u panoramskoj slici,
11:39
you see the family still sitting on the floor there.
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vidite da porodica i dalje sedi na podu,
11:41
Although there is a sofa,
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iako je ovde sofa.
11:43
if you watch in the kitchen, you can see that
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Ako pogledate u kuhinju, vidjećete
11:45
the great difference for women does not come between one to 10 dollars.
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da nema velike razlike za žene između jednog i deset dolara.
11:50
It comes beyond here, when you really can get
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To se dešava tek ovde,
11:52
good working conditions in the family.
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kad postoje dobri radni uslovi u porodici.
11:55
And if you really want to see the difference,
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A ako zaista želite da vidite razliku,
11:57
you look at the toilet over here.
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pogledajte toalet.
11:59
This can change. This can change.
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Ovo se može poboljšati, i ovo.
12:01
These are all pictures and images from Africa,
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Ovo sve fotografije iz Afrike
12:04
and it can become much better.
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i sve se to može puno poboljšati.
12:07
We can get out of poverty.
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Možemo se rešiti siromaštva.
12:09
My own research has not been in IT or anything like this.
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Moje istraživanje nije bilo u informacijskoj tehnologiji, ili takvom nečem.
12:12
I spent 20 years in interviews with African farmers
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Proveo sam 20 godina razgovarajući s afričkim seljacima
12:15
who were on the verge of famine.
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koji su bili na ivici izgladnelosti.
12:18
And this is the result of the farmers-needs research.
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A ovo su rezultati istraživanja o potrebama seljaka.
12:20
The nice thing here is that you can't see
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Dobro je što ne možete da vidite
12:22
who are the researchers in this picture.
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ko su istraživači na ovoj slici.
12:24
That's when research functions in poor societies --
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Istraživanje u nekom društvu daje prave rezultate
12:27
you must really live with the people.
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samo ako stvarno živite s ljudima.
12:31
When you're in poverty, everything is about survival.
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Ako živite u siromaštvu, jedino je bitno preživeti.
12:35
It's about having food.
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Jedino je važno imati dovoljno hrane.
12:37
And these two young farmers, they are girls now --
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A ovi mladi farmeri, to su devojke –
12:39
because the parents are dead from HIV and AIDS --
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jer su njihovi roditelji umrli od HIVa i SIDE –
12:43
they discuss with a trained agronomist.
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one razgovaraju s obrazovanim poljoprivrednikom.
12:45
This is one of the best agronomists in Malawi, Junatambe Kumbira,
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Ovo je jedan od najboljih poljoprovrednika u Malaviju, Junatambe Kumbira,
12:49
and he's discussing what sort of cassava they will plant --
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I on razgovara koju vrstu kasave (vrsta korena) bi one trebalo da uzgajaju –
12:51
the best converter of sunshine to food that man has found.
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to je najbolji pretvarač sunčeve energije u hranu koji je čovek otkrio.
12:55
And they are very, very eagerly interested to get advice,
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A one su vrlo, vrlo željne saveta
12:58
and that's to survive in poverty.
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kako bi preživele u siromaštvu.
13:01
That's one context.
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To je jedan kontekst.
13:02
Getting out of poverty.
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Izaći iz siromaštva.
13:04
The women told us one thing. "Get us technology.
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Te žene su nam rekle: „Dajte nam tehnologiju.
13:07
We hate this mortar, to stand hours and hours.
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Mrzimo ove motike, kopanje satima.
13:10
Get us a mill so that we can mill our flour,
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Dajte nam mlin, da možemo sami obrađujemo naše žito.
13:13
then we will be able to pay for the rest ourselves."
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onda ćemo moći da sami platitimo ostalo.“
13:16
Technology will bring you out of poverty,
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Tehnologija vas može izvući iz siromaštva,
13:19
but there's a need for a market to get away from poverty.
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ali potrebno je i tržište kako bi se izašlo iz siromaštva.
13:23
And this woman is very happy now, bringing her products to the market.
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Ova je žena presrećna dok vozi svoje proizvode na pijaci.
13:26
But she's very thankful for the public investment in schooling
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I ona je vrlo zahvalna za javna ulaganja u obrazovanje,
13:28
so she can count, and won't be cheated when she reaches the market.
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jer zna da računa i neće je prevariti na pijaci.
13:31
She wants her kid to be healthy, so she can go to the market
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Želi da njeno dete bude zdravo kako bi mogla da ide na pijacu,
13:34
and doesn't have to stay home.
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a ne da mora da ostane kod kuće.
13:36
And she wants the infrastructure -- it is nice with a paved road.
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A treba joj i infrastruktura – puno je lakše s asfaltiranim putom.
13:39
It's also good with credit.
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I krediti pomažu.
13:41
Micro-credits gave her the bicycle, you know.
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Mikro krediti su joj omogućili biciklu, znate.
13:44
And information will tell her when to go to market with which product.
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A pristup informacijama će joj pomoći da zna kad i s kojom robom ići na pijacu.
13:47
You can do this.
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To se može postići.
13:49
I find my experience from 20 years of Africa is that
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Moje dvadesetogodišnje iskustvo u Africi govori
13:52
the seemingly impossible is possible.
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da su naizgled nemoguće stvari ipak moguće.
13:55
Africa has not done bad.
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Afrika ne radi loše.
13:57
In 50 years they've gone from a pre-Medieval situation
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U 50 godina oni su s nivoa pre-srednjovekovne Evrope
14:00
to a very decent 100-year-ago Europe,
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došli na nivo Evrope od pre 100 godina,
14:03
with a functioning nation and state.
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s državama koje funkcionišu.
14:06
I would say that sub-Saharan Africa has done best in the world
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Rekao bih da je Subsaharska Afrika imala najveći napredak u celom svetu
14:09
during the last 50 years.
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u posljednjih 50 godina.
14:10
Because we don't consider where they came from.
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Jer mi zaboravljamo odakle su oni krenuli.
14:12
It's this stupid concept of developing countries
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Glupa je ideja koja upoređuje napredak
14:15
that puts us, Argentina and Mozambique together 50 years ago,
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nas, Argentine i Mozambika u proteklih 50 godina
14:18
and says that Mozambique did worse.
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i kaže da se Mozambik razvija loše.
14:21
We have to know a little more about the world.
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Moramo da naučimo malo više o svetu.
14:23
I have a neighbor who knows 200 types of wine.
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Imam suseda koji poznaje 200 vrsta vina.
14:26
He knows everything.
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On zna sve.
14:27
He knows the name of the grape, the temperature and everything.
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Zna naziv grožđa, temperaturu i sve.
14:29
I only know two types of wine -- red and white.
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Ja poznajem sam dve vrste vina – crno i belo.
14:32
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
14:34
But my neighbor only knows two types of countries --
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Ali moj sused poznaje samo dve vrste zemalja –
14:36
industrialized and developing.
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industrijalizovane i one u razvoju.
14:38
And I know 200, I know about the small data.
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A ja ih poznajem 200.
14:41
But you can do that.
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Ali to se može.
14:42
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
14:47
But I have to get serious. And how do you get serious?
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Ali moram da se uozbiljim. A kako biti ozbiljan?
14:49
You make a PowerPoint, you know?
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Napravite PowerPoint prezentaciju.
14:51
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
14:56
Homage to the Office package, no?
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Svaka čast Office paketu, zar ne?
15:00
What is this, what is this, what am I telling?
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Šta je ovo, šta je to, šta vam govorim?
15:02
I'm telling you that there are many dimensions of development.
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Govorim vam da postoji mnogo dimenzija razvoja.
15:05
Everyone wants your pet thing.
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Svi žele vaše projekte ljubimce.
15:07
If you are in the corporate sector, you love micro-credit.
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Ako ste u velikim korporacijama, obožavate mikro kredite.
15:10
If you are fighting in a non-governmental organization,
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Ako se borite kao nevladina organizacija,
15:12
you love equity between gender.
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volite ravnopravnost polova.
15:15
Or if you are a teacher, you'll love UNESCO, and so on.
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Ili ako ste učitelj, volite UNESCO, i tako dalje.
15:17
On the global level, we have to have more than our own thing.
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Na globalnom nivou nam treba više od naših stvari.
15:19
We need everything.
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Treba nam sve.
15:21
All these things are important for development,
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Sve ove stvari su bitne za razvoj,
15:23
especially when you just get out of poverty
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posebno ako ste upravo izašli iz siromaštva
15:25
and you should go towards welfare.
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i treba da stvorite blagostanje.
15:28
Now, what we need to think about
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Ono o čemu treba da mislimo
15:30
is, what is a goal for development,
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je koji su ciljevi razvoja
15:33
and what are the means for development?
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i koja su sredstva razvoja.
15:34
Let me first grade what are the most important means.
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Prvo ću oceniti koja su najvažnija sredstva.
15:38
Economic growth to me, as a public-health professor,
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Ekonomski rast je meni, kao profesoru javnog zdravstva,
15:40
is the most important thing for development
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najvažnija stvar za razvoj,
15:44
because it explains 80 percent of survival.
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jer on objašnjava 80% preživljavanja.
15:47
Governance. To have a government which functions --
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Vlada. Imati vladu koja funkcioniše –
15:50
that's what brought California out of the misery of 1850.
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to je ono što je izvuklo Kaliforniju iz bede 1850-e.
15:54
It was the government that made law function finally.
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Vlada je ta koja je konačno učinila da zakon profunkcioniše.
15:58
Education, human resources are important.
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Obrazovanje, ljudski resursi su važni.
16:00
Health is also important, but not that much as a mean.
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Zdravlje je isto važno, ali ne toliko kao sredstvo.
16:04
Environment is important.
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Okolina je važna.
16:06
Human rights is also important, but it just gets one cross.
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Ljudska prava su važna, ali dobijaju samo jedan plusić.
16:08
Now what about goals? Where are we going toward?
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A šta je s ciljevima? Čemu težimo?
16:11
We are not interested in money.
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Ne zanima nas novac.
16:13
Money is not a goal.
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Novac nije cilj.
16:14
It's the best mean, but I give it zero as a goal.
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To je najbolje sredstvo, ali mu dajem nulu kao cilju.
16:18
Governance, well it's fun to vote in a little thing,
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Vlada, pa zabavno je glasati,
16:21
but it's not a goal.
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ali to nije cilj.
16:23
And going to school, that's not a goal, it's a mean.
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I ići u školu, ni to nije cilj, to je sredstvo.
16:27
Health I give two points. I mean it's nice to be healthy
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Zdravlju dajem dva boda. Mislim, lepo je biti zdrav –
16:29
-- at my age especially -- you can stand here, you're healthy.
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posebno o mojim godinama – mogu ovde da stojim, jer sam zdrav.
16:31
And that's good, it gets two plusses.
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I to je dobro, dobija dva plusa.
16:33
Environment is very, very crucial.
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Okolina je vrlo, vrlo bitna.
16:35
There's nothing for the grandkid if you don't save up.
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Ništa neće ostati unucima ako ga ne štitimo.
16:37
But where are the important goals?
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Ali gde su važni ciljevi?
16:39
Of course, it's human rights.
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Naravno, to su ljudska prava.
16:41
Human rights is the goal,
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Ljudska prava su cilj,
16:43
but it's not that strong of a mean for achieving development.
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ali ne toliko važno sredstvo za ostvarenje razvoja.
16:47
And culture. Culture is the most important thing, I would say,
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I kultura. Kultura je najvažnija, rekao bih,
16:51
because that's what brings joy to life.
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jer to je ono što donosi radost u životu.
16:53
That's the value of living.
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To je vrednost života.
16:55
So the seemingly impossible is possible.
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Dakle, naizgled nemoguće je moguće.
16:58
Even African countries can achieve this.
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Čak i afričke zemlje to mogu da postignu.
17:01
And I've shown you the shot where the seemingly impossible is possible.
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I pokazao sam vam sliku gde je naizgled nemoguće moguće.
17:07
And remember, please remember my main message,
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I zapamtite, molim vas zapamtite moju glavnu poruku,
17:11
which is this: the seemingly impossible is possible.
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a to je ova: naizgled nemoguće je moguće.
17:14
We can have a good world.
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Možemo imati dobar svet.
17:16
I showed you the shots, I proved it in the PowerPoint,
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Pokazao sam vam slike, dokazao PowerPointom
17:19
and I think I will convince you also by culture.
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i mislim da ću vas uveriti kulturom.
17:25
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
17:29
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
17:30
Bring me my sword!
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Donesite mi moj mač!
17:36
Sword swallowing is from ancient India.
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Gutanje mača je iz drevne Indije.
17:41
It's a cultural expression that for thousands of years
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To je kulturni izraz koji je hiljadama godina
17:46
has inspired human beings to think beyond the obvious.
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nadahnjivao ljude da razmišljaju izvan očiglednog.
17:52
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
17:54
And I will now prove to you that the seemingly impossible is possible
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A ja ću vam sada dokazati da je naizgled nemoguće moguće
17:59
by taking this piece of steel -- solid steel --
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tako što ću ovaj komad čelika – čvrstog čelika –
18:03
this is the army bayonet from the Swedish Army, 1850,
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ovo je vojni bajonet švedske vojske, 1850.,
18:06
in the last year we had war.
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poslednje godine kad smo imali rat.
18:09
And it's all solid steel -- you can hear here.
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I to je čvrsti čelik – možete čuti.
18:12
And I'm going to take this blade of steel,
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I ja ću tu čeličnu oštricu
18:18
and push it down through my body of blood and flesh,
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gurnuti kroz moje telo od krvi i mesa
18:23
and prove to you that the seemingly impossible is possible.
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i dokazati vam da je naizgled nemoguće moguće.
18:28
Can I request a moment of absolute silence?
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Mogu li vas zamoliti za trenutak apsolutne tišine?
18:43
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com