TED2007
Hans Rosling: New insights on poverty
Hans Rosling 以新的视角解读当今世界的贫困问题
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Hans Rosing 教授用他的"超酷"的数据库软件展示世界各国摆脱贫困的历程；他带来的“美元街”展示了不同收入人群的居住条件；不要错过了他在结束前的惊人演出。
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:25
I told you three things last year.
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去年我们讲了3个问题
00:27
I told you that the statistics of the world
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我们已经谈过了
00:30
have not been made properly available.
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世界的统计资料并不为人们所知
00:33
Because of that, we still have the old mindset
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所以我们仍错误的
00:35
of developing in industrialized countries, which is wrong.
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把世界划分为发达国家与发展中国家
00:39
And that animated graphics can make a difference.
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但是新的统计数据动画技术将引领变革
00:44
Things are changing
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变革已经开始
00:46
and today, on the United Nations Statistic Division Home Page,
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今天，在联合国统计署的官方网站上
00:50
it says, by first of May, full access to the databases.
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通告说5月1日以后所有数据库向公众开放
00:55
(Applause)
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（掌声）
00:58
And if I could share the image with you on the screen.
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我们一起看大屏幕
01:03
So three things have happened.
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（过去1年中）发生了3件事
01:04
U.N. opened their statistic databases,
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联合国开放了他们的数据库
01:07
and we have a new version of the software
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我们的软件推出了新版本
01:11
up working as a beta on the net,
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其测试版可以在线使用
01:13
so you don't have to download it any longer.
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所以今后大家再也不用下载了
01:16
And let me repeat what you saw last year.
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首先我们回顾一下去年的内容
01:18
The bubbles are the countries.
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每个球代表一个国家
01:19
Here you have the fertility rate -- the number of children per woman --
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X轴是生育率，每个妇女的育儿数
01:23
and there you have the length of life in years.
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Y轴是平均寿命年数
01:27
This is 1950 -- those were the industrialized countries,
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当前数据是1950年，这些是发达国家
01:30
those were developing countries.
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这些是发展中国家
01:31
At that time there was a "we" and "them."
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那时世界是由“我们和他们”构成的
01:33
There was a huge difference in the world.
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那时候各国差距很大
01:35
But then it changed, and it went on quite well.
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后来世界往好的方向上改变了
01:39
And this is what happens.
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这就是变化的过程
01:41
You can see how China is the red, big bubble.
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那个大的红球代表中国
01:44
The blue there is India.
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而那个大的蓝球代表印度
01:45
And they go over all this -- I'm going to try to be
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（今年我想
01:48
a little more serious this year in showing you
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稍微严肃一些地向你们展示
01:50
how things really changed.
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世界的发展过程）
01:53
And it's Africa that stands out as the problem down here, doesn't it?
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而这些（小的深蓝色球）非洲国家 正是问题所在
01:56
Large families still, and the HIV epidemic
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庞大的家庭，艾滋病流行
01:59
brought down the countries like this.
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导致平均寿命下降
02:01
This is more or less what we saw last year,
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这基本上就是去年我们所讲的内容
02:04
and this is how it will go on into the future.
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而这是对未来的预测
02:07
And I will talk on, is this possible?
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我得说这些只是可能发生的
02:09
Because you see now, I presented statistics that don't exist.
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因为现在我们看到的 实际上是不存在的统计数据
02:13
Because this is where we are.
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这是目前的实际情况
02:15
Will it be possible that this will happen?
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也许未来的发展会像这样
02:19
I cover my lifetime here, you know?
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（这段时间）包含了我的人生
02:21
I expect to live 100 years.
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我期望活到100岁
02:23
And this is where we are today.
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这是今天的世界
02:25
Now could we look here instead at the economic situation in the world?
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我们看看世界的经济情况
02:33
And I would like to show that against child survival.
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和对应的儿童健康状况
02:38
We'll swap the axis.
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我们翻转一下Y轴
02:40
Here you have child mortality -- that is, survival --
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现在Y轴是儿童死亡率
02:44
four kids dying there, 200 dying there.
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这里是千分之四的死亡率 而那里是千分之两百的死亡率
02:47
And this is GDP per capita on this axis.
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X轴是人均GDP
02:50
And this was 2007.
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当前是2007年的数据
02:53
And if I go back in time, I've added some historical statistics --
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如果我们回到过去，我们增加了一些历史数据
02:57
here we go, here we go, here we go -- not so much statistics 100 years ago.
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100年前没有多少数据统计
03:03
Some countries still had statistics.
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只有少数国家有数据可查
03:05
We are looking down in the archive,
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我们参考了历史文献的记载
03:07
and when we are down into 1820,
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现在我们看到的是1820年的数据
03:11
there is only Austria and Sweden that can produce numbers.
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那时只有奥地利和瑞典人识数
03:15
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
03:18
But they were down here. They had 1,000 dollars per person per year.
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但他们在下边，每人每年1000美元的收入
03:22
And they lost one-fifth of their kids before their first birthday.
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五分之一的孩子活不到1岁生日
03:26
So this is what happens in the world, if we play the entire world.
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这就是那时的世界。再看看世界的发展
03:29
How they got slowly richer and richer,
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这些国家慢慢变得富有
03:32
and they add statistics.
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另一些国家开始拥有统计数据
03:33
Isn't it beautiful when they get statistics?
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（这些数据是不是很漂亮？
03:35
You see the importance of that?
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大家发现统计的重要性了吧）
03:37
And here, children don't live longer.
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但是儿童健康并没有得到很大的改善
03:39
The last century, 1870, was bad for the kids in Europe,
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在19世纪70年代左右，欧洲的孩子们很不幸
03:43
because most of this statistics is Europe.
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因为这些数据都来自欧洲国家
03:45
It was only by the turn of the century
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直到19世纪与20世纪交替的时候
03:48
that more than 90 percent of the children survived their first year.
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90%以上的孩子能庆祝1岁生日
03:51
This is India coming up, with the first data from India.
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现在出现的是印度（蓝球）
03:54
And this is the United States moving away here, earning more money.
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而这个（黄球）是美国，人们的钱包越来越鼓
03:59
And we will soon see China coming up in the very far end corner here.
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中国（大的红球）出现在远处的角落
04:04
And it moves up with Mao Tse-Tung getting health,
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毛泽东时代，中国儿童健康不断改善
04:06
not getting so rich.
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但是收入的增加很缓慢
04:07
There he died, then Deng Xiaoping brings money.
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毛泽东去世后，邓小平带来了金钱
04:10
It moves this way over here.
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中国朝着高收入的方向发展
04:12
And the bubbles keep moving up there,
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其他国家也都在发展
04:14
and this is what the world looks like today.
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这就是今天我们的世界
04:16
(Applause)
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（掌声）
04:22
Let us have a look at the United States.
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现在我们看看美国
04:25
We have a function here -- I can tell the world, "Stay where you are."
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（新软件）多了一个选项，可以让世界（其他国家）静止
04:29
And I take the United States -- we still want to see the background --
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我们把美国选定，把背景调亮
04:32
I put them up like this, and now we go backwards.
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这样可以看到其他国家
04:35
And we can see that the United States
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接着我们回到过去
04:38
goes to the right of the mainstream.
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美国始终在主流的右侧
04:41
They are on the money side all the time.
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他们总和钱站在同一边
04:44
And down in 1915, the United States was a neighbor of India --
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回到1915年，当时的美国
04:50
present, contemporary India.
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和今天的印度差不多
04:52
And that means United States was richer,
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当时的美国（比今天的印度）更富有
04:54
but lost more kids than India is doing today, proportionally.
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儿童死亡率却更高
04:59
And look here -- compare to the Philippines of today.
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再看这里，菲律宾（与美国）相比
05:02
The Philippines of today has almost the same economy
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菲律宾今天的经济水平
05:06
as the United States during the First World War.
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与一战时期的美国差不多
05:08
But we have to bring United States forward quite a while
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但美国需要（从一战后）发展多少年
05:12
to find the same health of the United States
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才能达到菲律宾今天的儿童健康水平呢
05:15
as we have in the Philippines.
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才能达到菲律宾今天的儿童健康水平呢
05:17
About 1957 here, the health of the United States
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直到1957年，美国的儿童健康水平
05:20
is the same as the Philippines.
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才和今天的菲律宾一样
05:22
And this is the drama of this world which many call globalized,
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这就是世界发展的剧本，很多人称之为“全球化”
05:25
is that Asia, Arabic countries, Latin America,
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也就是说在亚洲，阿拉伯国家和拉丁美洲
05:28
are much more ahead in being healthy, educated,
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其健康和教育水平的发展速度
05:33
having human resources than they are economically.
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远超过了经济发展的速度
05:36
There's a discrepancy in what's happening today
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而在今天的新兴国家中
05:38
in the emerging economies.
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发展的差异
05:40
There now, social benefits, social progress,
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更多的体现在社会的进步
05:44
are going ahead of economical progress.
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而不是经济的发展
05:47
And 1957 -- the United States had the same economy as Chile has today.
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1957年美国的经济水平与今天的智利相近
05:54
And how long do we have to bring United States
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但美国需要发展多少年
05:57
to get the same health as Chile has today?
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才能达到智利今天的儿童健康水平呢
06:00
I think we have to go, there -- we have 2001, or 2002 --
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（我们要等到）2002年
06:05
the United States has the same health as Chile.
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美国的儿童健康水平才和今天的智利一样
06:07
Chile's catching up!
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智利已经赶上来了！
06:09
Within some years Chile may have better child survival
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几年后智利的儿童健康
06:11
than the United States.
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可能会超过美国
06:13
This is really a change, that you have this lag
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这真是很大的变化，在不同的国家
06:16
of more or less 30, 40 years' difference on the health.
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经济发展和健康水平的差距有30，40年
06:21
And behind the health is the educational level.
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而在这个背后，有教育的差距
06:23
And there's a lot of infrastructure things,
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还有基础设施的差距
06:25
and general human resources are there.
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以及人力资源的差距等等
06:28
Now we can take away this --
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我们现在把其他国家去掉
06:31
and I would like to show you the rate of speed,
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再来看看不同的国家
06:35
the rate of change, how fast they have gone.
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其发展速度有怎样的差异
06:38
And we go back to 1920, and I want to look at Japan.
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回到1920年，先选定日本
06:46
And I want to look at Sweden and the United States.
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选定瑞典和美国
06:49
And I'm going to stage a race here
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我们将举办一场车赛
06:51
between this sort of yellowish Ford here
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选手分别是黄色的福特车（美国）
06:54
and the red Toyota down there,
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红色的丰田车（日本）
06:56
and the brownish Volvo.
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和棕色的沃尔沃车（瑞典）
06:58
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
07:00
And here we go. Here we go.
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比赛开始
07:02
The Toyota has a very bad start down here, you can see,
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丰田车启动时的表现很差
07:05
and the United States Ford is going off-road there.
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福特车驶出了赛道
07:08
And the Volvo is doing quite fine.
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沃尔沃表现的很不错
07:09
This is the war. The Toyota got off track, and now
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二战时，丰田车跑到了赛道外
07:11
the Toyota is coming on the healthier side of Sweden --
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但它（很快调整好）并在健康水平高于瑞典的一侧运行
07:14
can you see that?
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但它（很快调整好）并在健康水平高于瑞典的一侧运行
07:15
And they are taking over Sweden,
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现在它的健康水平
07:16
and they are now healthier than Sweden.
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已经超过了瑞典
07:18
That's the part where I sold the Volvo and bought the Toyota.
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就在那一年 我把自己的沃尔沃换成了丰田车
07:20
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
07:23
And now we can see that the rate of change was enormous in Japan.
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我们看到 日本的变化速度是惊人的
07:27
They really caught up.
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他们确实赶超了上来
07:29
And this changes gradually.
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但是这种变化是逐步发生的
07:31
We have to look over generations to understand it.
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要经历好几代人的时间才能理解这种变化
07:34
And let me show you my own sort of family history --
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下面把我的家族史展示给大家看一下
07:39
we made these graphs here.
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（这张图代表今天的世界）
07:41
And this is the same thing, money down there, and health, you know?
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Y轴代表健康水平，X轴是收入
07:45
And this is my family.
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（这根红线）代表了我的家族
07:48
This is Sweden, 1830, when my great-great-grandma was born.
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这里是1830年的瑞典 ，我的曾曾祖母出生于这一年
07:53
Sweden was like Sierra Leone today.
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1830年的瑞典和今天的塞拉利昂一样
07:56
And this is when great-grandma was born, 1863.
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我的曾祖母生于1863年
08:00
And Sweden was like Mozambique.
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1863年的瑞典和今天的莫桑比克一样
08:02
And this is when my grandma was born, 1891.
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我的祖母生于1891年
08:04
She took care of me as a child,
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是她看着我长大的
08:06
so I'm not talking about statistic now --
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现在我给大家讲述的不是统计数据
08:08
now it's oral history in my family.
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而是我本人的家族历史
08:11
That's when I believe statistics,
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我之所以相信这些统计数据
08:12
when it's grandma-verified statistics.
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是因为我的祖母证实了这些数据的真实性
08:15
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
08:18
I think it's the best way of verifying historical statistics.
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我认为祖母最适合于验证数据真实性
08:21
Sweden was like Ghana.
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1891年的瑞典和今天的嘎纳一样
08:22
It's interesting to see the enormous diversity
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可见在撒哈拉以南非洲地区
08:25
within sub-Saharan Africa.
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国家间的差异非常巨大
08:28
I told you last year, I'll tell you again,
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（我们再来回顾一下去年的内容）
08:30
my mother was born in Egypt, and I -- who am I?
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我母亲出生于（今天的）埃及
08:33
I'm the Mexican in the family.
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我是家里的墨西哥人
08:35
And my daughter, she was born in Chile,
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我女儿出生于（今天的）智利
08:37
and the grand-daughter was born in Singapore,
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我的孙女则出生在（今天的）新加坡
08:39
now the healthiest country on this Earth.
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新加坡是目前世界上最健康的国家
08:41
It bypassed Sweden about two to three years ago,
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其儿童健康水平在2，3年前
08:43
with better child survival.
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超过了瑞典
08:45
But they're very small, you know?
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但新加坡是个小地方
08:46
They're so close to the hospital we can never
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人们住的地方和医院很近
08:48
beat them out in these forests.
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把他们搬到瑞典的森林地区再比比看
08:49
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
08:52
But homage to Singapore.
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但还是应该向新加坡致敬
08:53
Singapore is the best one.
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他们是最健康的国家之一
08:55
Now this looks also like a very good story.
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以上这些看起来很不错
08:59
But it's not really that easy, that it's all a good story.
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但这些好的现象不能代表全部
09:03
Because I have to show you one of the other facilities.
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现在我们调整一下设置
09:06
We can also make the color here represent the variable --
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把球的颜色重新设置一下，让颜色表示
09:11
and what am I choosing here?
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把球的颜色重新设置一下，让颜色表示
09:12
Carbon-dioxide emission, metric ton per capita.
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CO2人均排放量（公吨）
09:17
This is 1962, and United States was emitting 16 tons per person.
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1962年，美国的人均CO2排放量为16吨
09:22
And China was emitting 0.6,
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当时的中国人均排放0.6吨
09:24
and India was emitting 0.32 tons per capita.
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印度为0.3吨
09:28
And what happens when we moved on?
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后来呢
09:31
Well, you see the nice story of getting richer
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各国的经济和健康均得到了发展
09:33
and getting healthier --
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各国的经济和健康均得到了发展
09:34
everyone did it at the cost of emission of carbon dioxide.
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同时所有国家的人均CO2排放量都增加了
09:39
There is no one who has done it so far.
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没有哪个国家不是如此
09:42
And we don't have all the updated data
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手头上我们没有更近的数据
09:45
any longer, because this is really hot data today.
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因为CO2的数据现在很炙手可热
09:48
And there we are, 2001.
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最新的数据只有2001年的
09:51
And in the discussion I attended with global leaders, you know,
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上次我参加了一个世界领导人的会议
09:55
many say now the problem is that the emerging economies,
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很多人在埋怨新兴国家
09:59
they are getting out too much carbon dioxide.
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说他们排放了太多CO2
10:02
The Minister of the Environment of India said,
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印度环境部的部长说
10:04
"Well, you were the one who caused the problem."
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“问题出在你们那里
10:07
The OECD countries -- the high-income countries --
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经合组织成员国，高收入国家
10:10
they were the ones who caused the climate change.
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是你们导致了气候的改变
10:13
"But we forgive you, because you didn't know it.
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但我们原谅你们，因为你们以前并不知情
10:15
But from now on, we count per capita.
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从现在起我们算人均CO2排放量
10:18
From now on we count per capita.
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从现在起我们算人均CO2排放量
10:20
And everyone is responsible for the per capita emission."
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每个国家都应该对自己的人均CO2排放量负责”
10:23
This really shows you, we have not seen good economic
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这里我们清楚地看到，每个国家的
10:26
and health progress anywhere in the world
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经济发展和健康的改善
10:28
without destroying the climate.
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都是以破坏环境为代价的
10:33
And this is really what has to be changed.
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这亟需改变
10:36
I've been criticized for showing you a too positive image of the world,
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我给大家展示过于乐观的发展前景，已经招来不少批评
10:39
but I don't think it's like this.
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尽管我不太认同
10:41
The world is quite a messy place.
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这是一个乱糟糟的世界
10:43
This we can call Dollar Street.
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现在大家所看到的是“美元街”
10:45
Everyone lives on this street here.
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所有人都住在这条街上
10:47
What they earn here -- what number they live on --
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上面的数字
10:50
is how much they earn per day.
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代表居民每天的收入
10:51
This family earns about one dollar per day.
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这家人每天收入1美元
10:55
We drive up the street here,
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我们驾车往前走
10:56
we find a family here which earns about two to three dollars a day.
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这家人每天收入2-3美元
11:00
And we drive away here -- we find the first garden in the street,
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继续往前走，看到街上第一个带花园的房子
11:03
and they earn 10 to 50 dollars a day.
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他们家每天收入10-50美元
11:05
And how do they live?
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房子里面是什么样子的呢
11:07
If we look at the bed here, we can see
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先看看卧室
11:10
that they sleep on a rug on the floor.
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（最穷的一家）睡在地板上
11:13
This is what poverty line is --
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这就是贫困线以下的生活
11:15
80 percent of the family income is just to cover the energy needs,
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80%的收入用于基本生活所需的能量和食物
11:18
the food for the day.
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80%的收入用于基本生活所需的能量和食物
11:20
This is two to five dollars. You have a bed.
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这家人每天收入2-5美元，有床可以睡了
11:23
And here it's a much nicer bedroom, you can see.
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（带花园的这一家）卧室要好得多
11:26
I lectured on this for Ikea, and they wanted to see
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我给"宜家"雇员们作报告的时候
11:28
the sofa immediately here.
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他们要求看看沙发
11:30
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
11:32
And this is the sofa, how it will emerge from there.
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这就是（贫困家里的）沙发
11:36
And the interesting thing, when you go around here in the photo panorama,
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这一家有像样的沙发，但我们环顾周围
11:39
you see the family still sitting on the floor there.
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会看到他们仍然坐在地板上
11:41
Although there is a sofa,
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尽管他们有沙发
11:43
if you watch in the kitchen, you can see that
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我们再看看厨房
11:45
the great difference for women does not come between one to 10 dollars.
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日收入1美元和10美元的家庭，厨房条件差不多
11:50
It comes beyond here, when you really can get
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在日收入超过10美元的家里
11:52
good working conditions in the family.
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厨房的条件才大为改善
11:55
And if you really want to see the difference,
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真正的差别其实在厕所
11:57
you look at the toilet over here.
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大家看这里
11:59
This can change. This can change.
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这些是可以改变的
12:01
These are all pictures and images from Africa,
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这些图片来自非洲
12:04
and it can become much better.
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但是（非洲）可以变得更好
12:07
We can get out of poverty.
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我们可以摆脱贫困
12:09
My own research has not been in IT or anything like this.
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我以前的研究并不是现在的IT领域
12:12
I spent 20 years in interviews with African farmers
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我在非洲工作了20年，终日奔走于饥饿的非洲农民中间
12:15
who were on the verge of famine.
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我在非洲工作了20年，终日奔走于饥饿的非洲农民中间
12:18
And this is the result of the farmers-needs research.
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这张照片记录了对“农民需求”的一项研究
12:20
The nice thing here is that you can't see
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有趣的是，你在照片上分辨不出
12:22
who are the researchers in this picture.
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谁是研究人员
12:24
That's when research functions in poor societies --
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在贫困地区开展研究的时候
12:27
you must really live with the people.
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你必须和当地人生活在一起
12:31
When you're in poverty, everything is about survival.
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如果你在贫困线以下，生存就是你的全部
12:35
It's about having food.
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必须获得食物
12:37
And these two young farmers, they are girls now --
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照片里的2个年轻的农民，她们是女孩
12:39
because the parents are dead from HIV and AIDS --
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因为父母都死于艾滋病
12:43
they discuss with a trained agronomist.
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她们正和一个农学家交谈
12:45
This is one of the best agronomists in Malawi, Junatambe Kumbira,
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他是马拉维最好的农学家之一，（名字是）Jonathan Mkambira
12:49
and he's discussing what sort of cassava they will plant --
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他们正在讨论种植哪一种cassava
12:51
the best converter of sunshine to food that man has found.
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Cassava是已知的转化太阳能效率最高的植物
12:55
And they are very, very eagerly interested to get advice,
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农民非常渴望得到建议
12:58
and that's to survive in poverty.
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这就是贫困线以下的生活
13:01
That's one context.
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另一方面
13:02
Getting out of poverty.
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（如何）摆脱贫困
13:04
The women told us one thing. "Get us technology.
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照片中的妇女告诉我们：“我们需要技术支持
13:07
We hate this mortar, to stand hours and hours.
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我们不想用人工磨，连续几个小时站着
13:10
Get us a mill so that we can mill our flour,
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给我们电动磨来磨面粉吧
13:13
then we will be able to pay for the rest ourselves."
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我们可以用卖面粉的钱
去买其它东西”
去买其它东西”
13:16
Technology will bring you out of poverty,
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技术支持可以帮助人们脱贫
13:19
but there's a need for a market to get away from poverty.
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而市场对于人们脱贫也很重要
13:23
And this woman is very happy now, bringing her products to the market.
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照片里的妇女很开心，她正把农产品运到市场上去卖
13:26
But she's very thankful for the public investment in schooling
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她很感谢政府的教育投资
13:28
so she can count, and won't be cheated when she reaches the market.
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她学会了算术 这样在市场里不会被骗
13:31
She wants her kid to be healthy, so she can go to the market
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她也希望孩子健康 这样她可以安心去市场
13:34
and doesn't have to stay home.
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而不是在家里照顾小孩
13:36
And she wants the infrastructure -- it is nice with a paved road.
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她还希望有基础设施，有一条铺好的道路很重要
13:39
It's also good with credit.
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另外小额贷款也很有用
13:41
Micro-credits gave her the bicycle, you know.
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小额贷款帮她买了自行车
13:44
And information will tell her when to go to market with which product.
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她还需要讯息，何时带何种农产品去市场
13:47
You can do this.
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而这些都是我们能实现的
13:49
I find my experience from 20 years of Africa is that
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非洲20年的经历让我明白
13:52
the seemingly impossible is possible.
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看上去不可能的事情 其实是可能的
13:55
Africa has not done bad.
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非洲的表现一点也不差
13:57
In 50 years they've gone from a pre-Medieval situation
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50年时间里，非洲从中世纪之前的水平
14:00
to a very decent 100-year-ago Europe,
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发展为100年前的欧洲
14:03
with a functioning nation and state.
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并建立起国家系统
14:06
I would say that sub-Saharan Africa has done best in the world
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我想说撒哈拉以南非洲地区在过去的50年中，是发展速度最快的地区
14:09
during the last 50 years.
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我想说撒哈拉以南非洲地区在过去的50年中，是发展速度最快的地区
14:10
Because we don't consider where they came from.
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由于我们没有考虑非洲的出身
14:12
It's this stupid concept of developing countries
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而且错误的使用 “发展中国家”的理念
14:15
that puts us, Argentina and Mozambique together 50 years ago,
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50年前把阿根廷和莫桑比克归类在一起
14:18
and says that Mozambique did worse.
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然后得出结论说 莫桑比克的发展（比阿根廷）差多了
14:21
We have to know a little more about the world.
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我们应该更深入了解这个世界
14:23
I have a neighbor who knows 200 types of wine.
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我的邻居了解200种葡萄酒
14:26
He knows everything.
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他对这些酒了如指掌
14:27
He knows the name of the grape, the temperature and everything.
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他知道葡萄的名字，酿酒的温度
14:29
I only know two types of wine -- red and white.
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我就知道2种葡萄酒，红的和白的
14:32
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
14:34
But my neighbor only knows two types of countries --
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但是我邻居就知道2种国家
14:36
industrialized and developing.
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发达国家和发展中国家
14:38
And I know 200, I know about the small data.
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我熟悉200个国家，以及他们的历年数据
14:41
But you can do that.
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这个你也能做到
14:42
(Applause)
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（掌声）
14:47
But I have to get serious. And how do you get serious?
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后面我要严肃一些，怎么严肃法呢？
14:49
You make a PowerPoint, you know?
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我们需要Power Point
14:51
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
14:56
Homage to the Office package, no?
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向微软"Office"致敬！
15:00
What is this, what is this, what am I telling?
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下面我想讲一下
15:02
I'm telling you that there are many dimensions of development.
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发展的过程是多维的
15:05
Everyone wants your pet thing.
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每个人都有自己的偏好
15:07
If you are in the corporate sector, you love micro-credit.
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如果你为企业部门工作，你会偏爱小额贷款
15:10
If you are fighting in a non-governmental organization,
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如果你在非政府组织工作
15:12
you love equity between gender.
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你更喜欢讨论男女平等
15:15
Or if you are a teacher, you'll love UNESCO, and so on.
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如果你是教师，你会首推联合国教科文组织，等等
15:17
On the global level, we have to have more than our own thing.
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在全球发展的层面，我们的需求其实大同小异
15:19
We need everything.
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这种需求涉及所有领域
15:21
All these things are important for development,
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因为它们都是发展的前提
15:23
especially when you just get out of poverty
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尤其是对于 希望脱贫致富的人们
15:25
and you should go towards welfare.
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尤其是对于 希望脱贫致富的人们
15:28
Now, what we need to think about
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我们要仔细考虑一下
15:30
is, what is a goal for development,
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哪些是发展的目标
15:33
and what are the means for development?
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哪些是发展的途径
15:34
Let me first grade what are the most important means.
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先看看最重要的途径
15:38
Economic growth to me, as a public-health professor,
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经济的发展， 对于公共卫生学教授来说这是一切发展的根本
15:40
is the most important thing for development
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经济的发展， 对于公共卫生学教授来说这是一切发展的根本
15:44
because it explains 80 percent of survival.
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因为经济是生存的基础
15:47
Governance. To have a government which functions --
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其次是政府职能，依托一个有效的政府
15:50
that's what brought California out of the misery of 1850.
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加利福尼亚成功的度过了 1850年的艰难时期
15:54
It was the government that made law function finally.
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而且政府职能是 有效司法体系的基础
15:58
Education, human resources are important.
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再然后是教育，人力资源非常重要
16:00
Health is also important, but not that much as a mean.
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健康也很重要 但不是发展必需的方法
16:04
Environment is important.
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环境也比较重要
16:06
Human rights is also important, but it just gets one cross.
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还有人权，但作为发展的方法，其分量不重
16:08
Now what about goals? Where are we going toward?
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再看发展的目标，我们需要往什么方向发展
16:11
We are not interested in money.
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肯定不是金钱
16:13
Money is not a goal.
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经济发展是最好的发展途径 但不是发展的目标
16:14
It's the best mean, but I give it zero as a goal.
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经济发展是最好的发展途径 但不是发展的目标
16:18
Governance, well it's fun to vote in a little thing,
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也许有政府职能，能参加选举固然不错
16:21
but it's not a goal.
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但这不足以成为发展的目标
16:23
And going to school, that's not a goal, it's a mean.
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接受教育也不是目标，而是发展的途径
16:27
Health I give two points. I mean it's nice to be healthy
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健康得2分，因为健康的身体很重要
16:29
-- at my age especially -- you can stand here, you're healthy.
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尤其在我这个年龄还可以站在讲台上
16:31
And that's good, it gets two plusses.
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所以健康得2分
16:33
Environment is very, very crucial.
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环境也非常重要
16:35
There's nothing for the grandkid if you don't save up.
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如果现在不保护环境 我们的子孙将一无所有
16:37
But where are the important goals?
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那么什么是最重要的发展目标呢
16:39
Of course, it's human rights.
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当然是人权了
16:41
Human rights is the goal,
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人权是发展的核心目标
16:43
but it's not that strong of a mean for achieving development.
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尽管这不是发展的必需途径
16:47
And culture. Culture is the most important thing, I would say,
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还有文化，我想把文化放在最重要的位置
16:51
because that's what brings joy to life.
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因为文化给我们的生活带来欢乐
16:53
That's the value of living.
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给生活赋予了意义
16:55
So the seemingly impossible is possible.
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看上去不可能的事情 是可能实现的
16:58
Even African countries can achieve this.
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即使是非洲也能做到
17:01
And I've shown you the shot where the seemingly impossible is possible.
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那些图表已经证明这一点，看上去不可能的事情是可能实现的
17:07
And remember, please remember my main message,
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这就是今天我的演讲最重要的内容
17:11
which is this: the seemingly impossible is possible.
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看上去不可能的事情 是可能实现的
17:14
We can have a good world.
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明天的世界会更美好
17:16
I showed you the shots, I proved it in the PowerPoint,
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在给你们展示了图表，还有幻灯片之后
17:19
and I think I will convince you also by culture.
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我要用最后的内容来说服你们，文化
17:25
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
17:29
(Applause)
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（掌声）
17:30
Bring me my sword!
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拿剑来！
17:36
Sword swallowing is from ancient India.
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吞剑表演
17:41
It's a cultural expression that for thousands of years
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古印度传承了上千年的传统表演
17:46
has inspired human beings to think beyond the obvious.
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这项表演一直激励着人们 去探索视野之外的世界
17:52
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
17:54
And I will now prove to you that the seemingly impossible is possible
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今天我也要证明给你们看，看上去不可能的事情是可能实现的
17:59
by taking this piece of steel -- solid steel --
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我将用这把铁剑，1850年的瑞典军用刺刀
18:03
this is the army bayonet from the Swedish Army, 1850,
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我将用这把铁剑，1850年的瑞典军用刺刀
18:06
in the last year we had war.
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（那年瑞典打完了最后一场战争）
18:09
And it's all solid steel -- you can hear here.
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大家可以听一下 货真价实
18:12
And I'm going to take this blade of steel,
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接着我会将这把铁剑
18:18
and push it down through my body of blood and flesh,
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穿过我这血肉之躯
18:23
and prove to you that the seemingly impossible is possible.
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从而向你们证明，看上去不可能的事情是可能实现的
18:28
Can I request a moment of absolute silence?
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请大家保持绝对的安静
18:43
(Applause)
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www.gapminder.org
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com