TEDGlobal 2013
Trita Parsi: Iran and Israel: Peace is possible
Trita Parsi: Iran i Izrael: mir je moguć
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Iran i Izrael: dve nacije sa napetim odnosima koje su izgleda u egzistencijalnom sukobu. Za sve njihove antagonističke retorike stoji skorašnja skrivena istorija saradnje, čak i prijateljstva. U informativnom govoru, Trita Parsi pokazuje kako bi neizvesna strateška alijansa u prošlosti mogla da znači mir u budućnosti za ove dve neprijateljske zemlje.
Trita Parsi - Political scientist
Trita Parsi delves into Middle Eastern history and politics, uncovering fresh perspectives on Iranian, Israeli, and U.S. relations -- and discovers potential solutions to brewing conflicts. Full bio
Trita Parsi delves into Middle Eastern history and politics, uncovering fresh perspectives on Iranian, Israeli, and U.S. relations -- and discovers potential solutions to brewing conflicts. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
"Iran is Israel's best friend,
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"Iran je Izraelov najbolji prijatelj,
00:14
and we do not intend to change our position
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i ne nameravamo da menjamo svoju poziciju
00:17
in relation to Tehran."
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prema Teheranu."
00:20
Believe it or not, this is a quote
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Verovali ili ne, ovo je izjava
00:22
from an Israeli prime minister,
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izraelskog predsednika Vlade,
00:24
but it's not Ben-Gurion or Golda Meir
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ali to nije Ben Gurio ili Golda Meir
00:26
from the era of the Shah.
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iz vremena Šaha.
00:29
It's actually from Yitzhak Rabin.
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Već zapravo od Jicaka Rabina.
00:31
The year is 1987.
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Godina je 1987.
00:34
Ayatollah Khomeini is still alive,
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Ajatolah Komeini je još uvek živ,
00:35
and much like Ahmadinejad today,
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i poput Ahamdinedžada danas,
00:37
he's using the worst rhetoric against Israel.
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koristio je najgoru retoriku
protiv Izraela.
protiv Izraela.
00:40
Yet, Rabin referred to Iran
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Ipak, Rabin je o Iranu govorio
00:43
as a geostrategic friend.
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kao o geostrateškom prijatelju.
00:46
Today, when we hear the threats of war
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Danas, kada čujemo pretnje ratom
00:49
and the high rhetoric,
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i visoku retoriku
00:51
we're oftentimes led to believe
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često smo vođeni verovanjem
00:52
that this is yet another one of those unsolvable
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da je ovo još jedan od nerešivih
00:55
Middle Eastern conflicts
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bliskoistočnih konflikata
00:57
with roots as old as the region itself.
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sa korenima starim koliko i sama regija.
01:01
Nothing could be further from the truth,
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Ništa ne može da bude dalje od istine,
01:05
and I hope today to show you why that is.
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i nadam se da ću vam pokazati
danas i zašto.
danas i zašto.
01:09
The relations between the Iranian and the Jewish people
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Veza između iranskog i jevrejskog naroda
01:11
throughout history has actually been quite positive,
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bila je prilično pozitivna kroz istoriju,
01:14
starting in 539 B.C.,
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datirajući od 539. godine p.n.e;
01:16
when King Cyrus the Great of Persia
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kada je Kir Veliki od Persije
01:18
liberated the Jewish people from their Babylonian captivity.
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oslobodio jeverejski narod od svojih
vavilonskih robovlasnika.
vavilonskih robovlasnika.
01:22
A third of the Jewish population
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Trećina jevrejske populacije
01:24
stayed in Babylonia.
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ostala je u Vavilonu.
01:26
They're today's Iraqi Jews.
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Oni su današnji irački Jevreji.
01:28
A third migrated to Persia.
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Trećina je migrirala u Persiju.
01:31
They're today's Iranian Jews,
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Oni su današnji iranski Jevreji,
01:33
still 25,000 of them living in Iran,
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i dalje 25 000 njih živi u Iranu,
01:36
making them the largest Jewish community
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čineći najveću jevrejsku zajednicu,
01:38
in the Middle East outside of Israel itself.
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na Bliskom istoku van samog Izraela.
01:41
And a third returned to historic Palestine,
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I trećina se vratila
u istorijsku Palestinu
u istorijsku Palestinu
01:44
did the second rebuilding of the Temple in Jerusalem,
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i izvršila drugu dogradnju
hrama u Jerusalimu
hrama u Jerusalimu
01:47
financed, incidentally, by Persian tax money.
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finanisranog, slučajno,
persijskim porezom.
persijskim porezom.
01:52
But even in modern times,
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Ali čak u modernim vremenima,
01:54
relations have been close at times.
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veze su se vremenom jačale.
01:57
Rabin's statement was a reflection
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Rabinova izjava bila je prikaz
02:00
of decades of security and intelligence collaboration
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decenija saradnje bezbednosnih
i obaveštajnih službi
i obaveštajnih službi
02:04
between the two, which in turn
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između dve države, koja je zauzvrat
02:06
was born out of perception of common threats.
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stvorena zbog percepcije
zajedničkih pretnji.
zajedničkih pretnji.
02:10
Both states feared the Soviet Union
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Obe strane su strahovale
od Sovjetskog saveza
od Sovjetskog saveza
02:13
and strong Arab states such as Egypt and Iraq.
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i jakih arapskih zemalja
poput Egipta i Iraka.
poput Egipta i Iraka.
02:18
And, in addition, the Israeli doctrine of the periphery,
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Kao dodatak, izraelska dokrtina oboda,
02:22
the idea that Israel's security was best achieved
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ideja da je sigurnost Izraela
najbolje postignuta
najbolje postignuta
02:26
by creating alliances with the non-Arab states
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stvaranjem saveza sa nearapskim zemljama
02:30
in the periphery of the region
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na obodu regije
02:32
in order to balance the Arab states in its vicinity.
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u cilju balansiranja arapskih država
u svom okruženju.
u svom okruženju.
02:36
Now, from the Shah's perspective, though,
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Iz Šahove perspektive,
02:39
he wanted to keep this as secret as possible,
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on je želeo da zadrži ovo
u što većoj tajnosti,
u što većoj tajnosti,
02:43
so when Yitzhak Rabin, for instance,
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tako da kada je Jicak Rabin, na primer,
02:45
traveled to Iran in the '70s,
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putovao za Iran '70-ih godina,
02:47
he usually wore a wig
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uglavnom je nosio periku
02:48
so that no one would recognize him.
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kako ga niko ne bi prepoznao.
02:51
The Iranians built a special tarmac
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Iračani su napravili posebnu pistu
na aerodromu u Teheranu,
na aerodromu u Teheranu,
02:53
at the airport in Tehran, far away from the central terminal,
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daleko od centralnog terminala
02:56
so that no one would notice the large number
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kako niko ne bi primetio veliki broj
02:59
of Israeli planes shuttling between Tel Aviv and Tehran.
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izraelskih aviona koji preleću
između Tel Aviva i Teherana.
između Tel Aviva i Teherana.
03:04
Now, did all of this end with the Islamic revolution
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Da li se sve ovo završilo
islamskom revolucijom
islamskom revolucijom
03:07
in 1979?
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1979. godine?
03:10
In spite of the very clear anti-Israeli ideology
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Uprkos veoma jasnoj
antiizraelskoj ideologiji
antiizraelskoj ideologiji
03:13
of the new regime, the geopolitical logic
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novog režima, geopolitička logika
03:17
for their collaboration lived on,
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za njihovu saradnju nastavila je da živi,
03:19
because they still had common threats.
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jer su i dalje imali zajedničke pretnje.
03:22
And when Iraq invaded Iran in 1980,
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Kada je Irak napao Iran 1980. godine,
03:25
Israel feared an Iraqi victory
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Izrael se plašio pobede Iraka
03:28
and actively helped Iran by selling it arms
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i aktivno je pomogao Iranu
prodajući im oružje
prodajući im oružje
03:30
and providing it with spare parts
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i dobavljajući im rezervne delove
03:33
for Iran's American weaponry
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za iračko američko oružje
03:35
at a moment when Iran was very vulnerable
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u momentu kada je Iran bio veoma osetljiv
03:38
because of an American arms embargo
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zbog američkog oružanog embarga
03:41
that Israel was more than happy to violate.
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koji je Izrael bio i više nego srećan
da zloupotrebi.
da zloupotrebi.
03:44
In fact, back in the 1980s,
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Zapravo, u 1980-im,
03:47
it was Israel that lobbied Washington
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Izrael je lobirao za Vašington
03:49
to talk to Iran, to sell arms to Iran,
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da razgovara sa Iranom,
da proda oružje Iranu,
da proda oružje Iranu,
03:54
and not pay attention to Iran's anti-Israeli ideology.
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i ne obrati pažnju na iransku
antiizraelsku ideologiju.
antiizraelsku ideologiju.
03:59
And this, of course, climaxed
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I naravno, ovo je rezultiralo
04:01
in the Iran-Contra scandal of the 1980s.
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iranskim Kontra skandalom 1980-ih.
04:06
But with the end of the Cold War
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Ali sa krajem Hladnog rata
04:08
came also the end of the Israeli-Iranian cold peace.
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došao je i kraj izraelsko-iranskog
hladnog mira.
hladnog mira.
04:12
Suddenly, the two common threats
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Odjednom su dve zajedničke pretnje
04:15
that had pushed them closer together throughout decades,
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koje su ih približile kroz decenije,
04:18
more or less evaporated.
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manje ili više isparile.
04:20
The Soviet Union collapsed,
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Sovjetski Savez se raspao,
04:22
Iraq was defeated,
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Irak je poražen,
04:24
and a new environment was created in the region
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i stvoreno je novo okruženje
u ovom regionu
u ovom regionu
04:26
in which both of them felt more secure,
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u kojem će se obe države
osećati sigurnije,
osećati sigurnije,
04:28
but they were also now left unchecked.
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ali su obe završile kao neproverene.
04:31
Without Iraq balancing Iran,
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Ako Irak ne balansira Iran,
04:34
Iran could now become a threat,
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Iran bi sada mogao da postane pretnja,
04:36
some in Israel argued.
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za neke u Izraelu.
04:39
In fact, the current dynamic
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Zapravo, trenutna dinamika,
04:42
that you see between Iran and Israel
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koju vidite između Irana i Izraela,
04:44
has its roots more so
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ima svoje korene više
04:46
in the geopolitical reconfiguration of the region
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u geopolitičkom restruktuiranju regiona
04:49
after the Cold War
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nakon Hladnog rata,
04:50
than in the events of 1979,
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nego u događajima iz 1979. godine,
04:53
because at this point, Iran and Israel
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jer su se u tom trenutku, Iran i Izrael
04:56
emerge as two of the most powerful states in the region,
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istakli kao dve najsnažnije
zemlje u regionu,
zemlje u regionu,
05:00
and rather than viewing each other
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i umesto da posmatraju jedna drugu
05:01
as potential security partners,
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kao potencijalnog partnera,
05:03
they increasingly came to view each other
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sve više su počeli da posmatraju
jedni druge
jedni druge
05:06
as rivals and competitors.
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kao rivale i konkurenciju.
05:09
So Israel, who in the 1980s
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Izrael, koji je '80-ih
05:11
lobbied for and improved U.S.-Iran relations
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lobirao i pospešio odnose
Sjedinjenih Država i Irana
Sjedinjenih Država i Irana
05:14
now feared a U.S.-Iran rapprochement,
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sada se uplašio njihovog zbližavanja,
05:18
thinking that it would come
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misleći da bi to išlo
05:19
at Israel's security interests' expense,
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na štetu izraelskih sigurnosnih interesa
05:23
and instead sought to put Iran
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i umesto toga tražio da smesti Iran
05:25
in increased isolation.
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u povećanu izolaciju.
05:27
Ironically, this was happening at a time
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Ironično, ovo se dešava u vreme
05:30
when Iran was more interested
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kada je Iran bio zainteresovaniji
05:32
in peacemaking with Washington
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za stvaranje mira sa Vašingtonom,
05:35
than to see to Israel's destruction.
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nego za posmatranje raspada Izraela.
05:38
Iran had put itself in isolation
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Iran je smestio sebe u izolaciju
05:40
because of its radicalism,
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zbog svog radikalizma,
05:42
and after having helped the United States indirectly
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i nakon što su indirektno pomogle
Sjedinjenim Državama,
Sjedinjenim Državama,
05:45
in the war against Iraq in 1991,
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u ratu protiv Iraka 1991. godine,
05:47
the Iranians were hoping
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Iranci su se nadali
05:49
that they would be rewarded by being included
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da će biti nagrađeni uključivanjem
05:53
in the post-war security architecture of the region.
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u posleratnu sigurnosnu
arhitekturu regiona.
arhitekturu regiona.
05:57
But Washington chose to ignore Iran's outreach,
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Ipak, Vašington je izabrao
da ignoriše iranski doprinos,
da ignoriše iranski doprinos,
06:01
as it would a decade later in Afghanistan,
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kao što je to uradio deceniju
kasnije u Avganistanu,
kasnije u Avganistanu,
06:03
and instead moved to intensify Iran's isolation,
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i umesto toga intenzivirao
izolaciju Irana,
izolaciju Irana,
06:08
and it is at this point, around 1993, '94,
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i u tom trenutku, oko 1993/1994. godine,
06:11
that Iran begins to translate
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Iran je počeo da prevodi
06:14
its anti-Israeli ideology
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svoju antii-izraelsku ideologiju
06:16
into operational policy.
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u operacionu politiku.
06:18
The Iranians believed that whatever they did,
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Iranci su verovali da štagod da urade,
06:20
even if they moderated their policies,
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čak i ako su obuzdali njihovu strategiju,
06:23
the U.S. would continue to seek Iran's isolation,
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Sjedinjene Države bi nastavile
da traže izolaciju Irana,
da traže izolaciju Irana,
06:26
and the only way Iran could compel Washington
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i jedini način na koji bi Iran mogao
da primora Vašington
da primora Vašington
06:30
to change its position was by imposing a cost
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da promeni svoju poziciju,
bio je nametanjem troška
bio je nametanjem troška
06:33
on the U.S. if it didn't.
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Sjedinjenim Državama,
ukoliko se to ne desi.
ukoliko se to ne desi.
06:36
The easiest target was the peace process,
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Najlakša meta bio je mirovni proces,
06:40
and now the Iranian ideological bark
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i sada je iranski ideološki čamac
06:43
was to be accompanied by a nonconventional bite,
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bio praćen nekonvencionalnim mamcem,
06:47
and Iran began supporting extensively
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i Iran je značajno počeo da podržava
06:51
Palestinian Islamist groups that it previously
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palestinske islamističke grupe
06:54
had shunned.
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koje je pretnodno izbegavao.
06:57
In some ways, this sounds paradoxical,
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Na neki način, ovo zvuči paradoksalno
07:00
but according to Martin Indyk
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ali prema Martinu Indiku
07:02
of the Clinton administration,
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iz Klintonove administracije,
07:04
the Iranians had not gotten it entirely wrong,
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Iranci nisu sve shvatili pogrešno,
07:07
because the more peace there would be
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jer što je više mira
07:09
between Israel and Palestine,
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između Izraela i Palestine,
07:11
the U.S. believed, the more Iran would get isolated.
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Sjedinjene Države su verovale da bi više
Iranaca bilo izolovano.
Iranaca bilo izolovano.
07:14
The more Iran got isolated, the more peace there would be.
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Što se više Iranaca izoluje,
to će više biti mira.
to će više biti mira.
07:17
So according to Indyk, and these are his words,
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Prema Indiku, a ovo su njegove reči:
07:20
the Iranians had an interest to do us in
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"Iranci su imali interesa da nas napadnu
07:23
on the peace process
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u mirovnom procesu
07:25
in order to defeat our policy of containment.
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u cilju da odbrane našu strukturu
od zadržavanja.
od zadržavanja.
07:28
To defeat our policy of containment,
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Da bi odbranili svoju strukturu
od zadržavanja,
od zadržavanja,
07:31
not about ideology.
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bez ideologije.
07:35
But throughout even the worst times of their entanglement,
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Ali i kroz najgora vremena
njihovog uplitanja,
njihovog uplitanja,
07:39
all sides have reached out to each other.
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sve strane su se međusobno pomogle.
07:42
Netanyahu, when he got elected in 1996,
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Kada je Netanjahu bio izabran
1996. godine,
1996. godine,
07:45
reached out to the Iranians to see
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dopreo je do Iranaca da vidi
07:47
if there were any ways that
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da li postoji ikakav način
07:49
the doctrine of the periphery could be resurrected.
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da doktrina periferije može da oživi.
07:52
Tehran was not interested.
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Teheran nije bio zainteresovan.
07:54
A few years later, the Iranians sent
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Nekoliko godina kasnije, Iranci su poslali
07:57
a comprehensive negotiation proposal to the Bush administration,
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obiman pregovarački predlog
Bušovoj administraciji,
Bušovoj administraciji,
08:01
a proposal that revealed that there was some potential
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predlog koji je otkrio
da je postojao potencijal
da je postojao potencijal
08:05
of getting Iran and Israel back on terms again.
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vraćanja Irana i Izraela u dobre odnose.
08:09
The Bush administration did not even respond.
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Bušova administracija
nije čak ni odgovorila.
nije čak ni odgovorila.
08:12
All sides have never missed an opportunity
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Obe strane nisu nikada propustile priliku
08:15
to miss an opportunity.
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da propuste priliku.
08:20
But this is not an ancient conflict.
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Ali ovo nije stari sukob.
08:25
This is not even an ideological conflict.
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Ovo nije čak ni ideološki sukob.
08:28
The ebbs and flows of hostility
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Struje netrpeljivosti
08:31
have not shifted with ideological zeal,
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nisu se pomerile sa ideološkim žarom,
08:34
but rather with changes in the geopolitical landscape.
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već promenama u geopolitičkom okruženju.
08:37
When Iran and Israel's security imperatives
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Kada su iranski i izraelski
sigurnosni imperativi
sigurnosni imperativi
08:39
dictated collaboration, they did so
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diktirali saradnju, oni su to i činili
08:42
in spite of lethal ideological opposition to each other.
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uprkos ubistvenoj ideološkoj opoziciji
jednih prema drugima.
jednih prema drugima.
08:45
When Iran's ideological impulses collided
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Kada su se iranski ideološki impulsi
08:48
with its strategic interests,
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sukobili sa svojim strateškim interesima,
08:50
the strategic interests always prevailed.
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strateški interesi su uvek prevagnuli.
08:54
This is good news, because it means
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Ovo su dobre vesti, jer to znači
08:57
that neither war nor enmity
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da niti rat niti neprijateljstvo
09:00
is a foregone conclusion.
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ne nose prerani zaključak.
09:03
But some want war.
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Ali neki žele rat.
09:06
Some believe or say that it's 1938,
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Neki veruju ili kažu da je 1938. godina,
09:09
Iran is Germany,
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Iran je Nemačka,
09:11
and Ahmadinejad is Hitler.
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i Ahmadinedžad je Hitler.
09:14
If we accept this to be true,
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Ako prihvatimo ovo kao istinu,
09:16
that indeed it is 1938, Iran is Germany,
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to onda znači da je 1938. godina
i da je Iran Nemačka,
i da je Iran Nemačka,
09:19
Ahmadinejad is Hitler,
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Ahmadinedžad Hitler,
09:22
then the question we have to ask ourself is,
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a onda je pitanje koje treba
da pitamo sebe:
da pitamo sebe:
09:25
who wishes to play the role of Neville Chamberlain?
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ko želi da glumi ulogu Nevila Čemberlena?
09:28
Who will risk peace?
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Ko će rizikovati mir?
09:31
This is an analogy that is deliberately aimed
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Ovo je analogija koja osmišljeno cilja
09:34
at eliminating diplomacy,
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na eliminisanje diplomatije,
09:37
and when you eliminate diplomacy,
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i kada eliminišete diplomatiju,
09:39
you make war inevitable.
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činite rat neizbežnim.
09:42
In an ideological conflict, there can be no truce,
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U ideološkom sukobu ne postoji primirje,
09:45
no draw, no compromise,
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izjednačenje, niti kompromis,
09:47
only victory or defeat.
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samo pobeda ili poraz.
09:51
But rather than making war inevitable
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Ali umesto da činimo rat neizbežnim,
09:54
by viewing this as ideological,
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posmatrajući ga kao ideološki,
09:57
we would be wise to seek ways
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bili bismo pametniji da tražimo načine
09:59
to make peace possible.
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da učinimo mir mogućim.
10:02
Iran and Israel's conflict is a new phenomenon,
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Iranski i izraelski sukob je novi fenomen,
10:06
only a few decades old
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star samo nekoliko decenija
10:08
in a history of 2,500 years,
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u istoriji od 2500 godina,
10:10
and precisely because its roots are geopolitical,
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i baš zato što su njegovi
koreni geopolitički,
koreni geopolitički,
10:14
it means that solutions can be found,
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to znači da se rešenja mogu naći,
10:17
compromises can be struck,
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ostvariti kompromisi,
10:20
however difficult it yet may be.
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koliko god da je teško.
10:23
After all, it was Yitzhak Rabin himself who said,
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Nakon svega, sam Jicak Rabin
je jednom rekao:
je jednom rekao:
10:27
"You don't make peace with your friends.
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"Ne stvarate mir sa svojim prijateljima.
10:30
You make it with your enemies."
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Stvarate ga sa svojim neprijateljima."
10:32
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
10:33
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Trita Parsi - Political scientistTrita Parsi delves into Middle Eastern history and politics, uncovering fresh perspectives on Iranian, Israeli, and U.S. relations -- and discovers potential solutions to brewing conflicts.
Why you should listen
Writer and political scientist Trita Parsi is an expert observer of the labyrinthine relationships between the U.S. and the Middle East, cutting through conventional stereotypes to laying bare the often-contentious history of the region.
When Parsi was only 4, his family fled to Sweden from Iran to escape political repression. Parsi later relocated to the U.S., where he earned a PhD and founded the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), a grassroots organization promoting the interests of the U.S./ Iranian community.
Trita Parsi | Speaker | TED.com