TEDGlobal 2011
Niall Ferguson: The 6 killer apps of prosperity
Mulkiyetin 6 katil uygulamasi.
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Gectigimiz yuzyillarda, Bati Kulturu onlarin mulkiyetlerini arttirmalari icin cok elverisliydi. Tarih bilimcisi Niall Ferguson sunu sorguluyor: Neden Batı boyle de geri kalanlar daha kotu durumda? Bati kulturunden 6 tane buyuk fikir sunuyor -- bunlara 6 katil uygulama diyor -- : bu fikirler zenginlik, sabitlik ve yeniligi artiriyor. Ve ekliyor: bu yeni yuzyilda butun bu uygulamar baska ulkelerle de paylasilabilir.
Niall Ferguson - Historian
History is a curious thing, and Niall Ferguson investigates not only what happened but why. (Hint: Politics and money explain a lot.) Full bio
History is a curious thing, and Niall Ferguson investigates not only what happened but why. (Hint: Politics and money explain a lot.) Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Let's talk about billions.
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Gelin milyarlar hakkinda konusalim.
00:18
Let's talk about
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gecmisin ve gelecegin...
00:21
past and future billions.
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milyarlari hakkinda konusalim.
00:24
We know
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Biliyoruz ki, gecmisten bugune...
00:26
that about 106 billion people
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106 milyar civarin da insan...
00:29
have ever lived.
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yasamis.
00:31
And we know that most of them are dead.
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Ve biliyoruz ki, bu insanlarin cogu oldu.
00:34
And we also know
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Ve yine biliyoruz ki,
00:36
that most of them live or lived in Asia.
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bir cogu Asya'da yasiyorlar yada yasadilar.
00:38
And we also know
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Ve yine biliyoruz ki,
00:40
that most of them were or are very poor --
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bu insanlarin bir cogu fakirler yada fakirdiler.
00:44
did not live for very long.
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cok uzun yasamadilar.
00:47
Let's talk about billions.
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Gelin milyarlar hakkinda konusalim.
00:50
Let's talk about
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Gelin 195.000 milyar dolarlik...
00:52
the 195,000 billion dollars of wealth
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gunumuz dunyasindaki bir servet hakkinda...
00:56
in the world today.
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konusalim.
00:59
We know that most of that wealth
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Sunu biliyoruz ki bu servetin cogu...
01:02
was made after the year 1800.
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1800 yilindan sonra kazanildi.
01:05
And we know that most of it
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Ve sunu da soyleyebiliriz ki,
01:08
is currently owned
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bu servete, gunumuzde de birileri sahip.
01:10
by people we might call Westerners:
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bu birilerine Batililar diyebiliriz.
01:14
Europeans, North Americans, Australasians.
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Avrupalilar,Kuzey Amerikalilar,Avusturalyalilar.
01:18
19 percent of the world's population today,
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Dunya nufusunun bugun yuzde 19'unu olusturuyorlar.
01:21
Westerners own two-thirds of its wealth.
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Batililar bu servetin 3 te 2 sine hakimler.
01:25
Economic historians
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Ekonomi tarihcileri...
01:27
call this "The Great Divergence."
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buna; "Buyuk Diverjans " adini veriyorlar.
01:30
And this slide here
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Ve bu slaytta...
01:32
is the best simplification
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Buyuk Diverjans hikayesinin...
01:34
of the Great Divergence story
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en basit seklini gorecegiz.
01:36
I can offer you.
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Size soyle diyebilirim ki;
01:38
It's basically two ratios
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temel olarak GSMH'nin...
01:40
of per capita GDP,
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kisi basina dusen, 2 oran vardir.
01:42
per capita gross domestic product,
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kisi basina dusen gayri safi milli hasila,
01:45
so average income.
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ortalama gelirden soz ediyoruz.
01:47
One, the red line,
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Birincisi, kirmizi hat,
01:49
is the ratio of British to Indian
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Britanya'nin Hindistan'a olan orani,
01:51
per capita income.
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kisi basina dusen ortalama gelir de.
01:53
And the blue line
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Ve mavi hat.
01:55
is the ratio of American to Chinese.
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Amerika'nin Cin'e olan orani.
01:58
And this chart goes back to 1500.
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Ve bu grafik 1500'e kadar geriye gidiyor.
02:00
And you can see here
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Burada, bir eksponansyiel Buyuk Diverjans'in...
02:02
that there's an exponential Great Divergence.
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oldugunu gorebilirsiniz.
02:05
They start off pretty close together.
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Birlikte cok yakin basliyorlar.
02:07
In fact, in 1500,
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Aslinda, 1500'de,
02:09
the average Chinese was richer than the average North American.
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Cin, Kuzey Amerika'ya gore daha zengindi.
02:13
When you get to the 1970s,
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1970 lere gelindigin de,
02:16
which is where this chart ends,
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yani bu grafigin bittigi yerde,
02:18
the average Briton is more than 10 times richer
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Buyuk Britanyalilarin zenginligi,
02:20
than the average Indian.
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Hindistanlilardan 10 kat daha fazla.
02:22
And that's allowing
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Bu da yasam maliyetlerinin...
02:24
for differences in the cost of living.
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farkini ortaya koyuyor.
02:26
It's based on purchasing power parity.
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Bu satin almanin gucu.
02:29
The average American
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Amerika'lilarin ortalamasi,
02:31
is nearly 20 times richer
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Cin'in ortalamasindan...
02:33
than the average Chinese
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1970 ler de,
02:35
by the 1970s.
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yaklasik 20 kat daha zengin.
02:37
So why?
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Peki neden?
02:40
This wasn't just an economic story.
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Bu sadece ekonomik bir hikayeden ibaret degil.
02:43
If you take the 10 countries
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Eger 10 ulkeyi ele alirsaniz,
02:45
that went on to become
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Bati imparatorluklari,
02:48
the Western empires,
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olmak icin gittiler,
02:50
in 1500 they were really quite tiny --
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1500 lerde baya zayiftilar.
02:53
five percent of the world's land surface,
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Dunya'nin yuz olcumunun yuzde 5i onlarindi.
02:55
16 percent of its population,
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Dunya Nufusu'nun yuzde 16 sina sahiptiler,
02:57
maybe 20 percent of its income.
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belki de Dunya Nufusu'nun gelirinin yuzde 20sine sahiptiler.
03:00
By 1913,
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1913 te,
03:02
these 10 countries, plus the United States,
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bu 10 ulke Birlesik Devletler'e katildilar.
03:05
controlled vast global empires --
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cesitli imparatorluklari kontrol ettiler.
03:08
58 percent of the world's territory,
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Dunya sinirlarinin yuzde 58ine hukmettiler.
03:10
about the same percentage of its population,
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hemen hemen ayni yuzdede insan nufusuna da sahip oldular.
03:13
and a really huge, nearly three-quarters share
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cok buyuktuler,kuresel ekonomi harcamalarinin,
03:16
of global economic output.
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hemen hemen 3 ceyregini paylastilar.
03:18
And notice, most of that went to the motherland,
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Ve dikkat edelim, bir cogu anakaraya donduler,
03:22
to the imperial metropoles,
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onemli metropollere,
03:24
not to their colonial possessions.
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kolonilerinin yanina degil.
03:28
Now you can't just blame this on imperialism --
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Simdi bu sucu emperyalizmin uzerine yikamazsiniz.
03:30
though many people have tried to do so --
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cogu insanin yapmaya calistigi gibi.
03:33
for two reasons.
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2 nedenimiz var:
03:36
One, empire was the least original thing
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Ilki, imparatorluk orjinal degildi.
03:39
that the West did after 1500.
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Bati'nin 1500 ten sonra yaptigi imparatorluk.
03:42
Everybody did empire.
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Herkes imparatorluğu yaptı.
03:45
They beat preexisting Oriental empires
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Onlar önceden mevcut muazzam imparatorlukları yendi,
03:48
like the Mughals and the Ottomans.
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Mogollar ve Osmanlilar gibi muazzam imparatorluklari.
03:50
So it really doesn't look like empire is a great explanation
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Yani imparatorluk terimi, cok iyi bir aciklama olmuyor onlar icin...
03:53
for the Great Divergence.
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Onlara Buyuk Diverjans diyoruz.
03:55
In any case, as you may remember,
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Siz de hatirlayabilirsiniz, her alanda,
03:57
the Great Divergence reaches its zenith in the 1970s,
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Buyuk Diverjans 1970lerde doruga ulasti,
04:00
some considerable time after decolonization.
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somurgeciligin bitiminden onemli bir zaman sonra,
04:04
This is not a new question.
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Bu yeni bir soru degil.
04:06
Samuel Johnson,
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Samuel Johnson,
04:08
the great lexicographer,
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sozluk bilimcilerin gurusu,
04:10
[posed] it through his character Rasselas
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"Prince of Abissinia" adli Romanindaki Rasselas karakterine
04:13
in his novel "Rasselas, Prince of Abissinia,"
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karsi cikti.
04:16
published in 1759.
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Roman 1759 da yayimlandi,
04:19
"By what means are the Europeans thus powerful;
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Konusu, Avrupa'lilarin gucten ne anladiklariydi,
04:22
or why, since they can so easily visit Asia and Africa
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veya neden Asya ve Afrika'yi kolayca ziyaret edince,
04:25
for trade or conquest,
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fetihlere ve ticarete kalkistilar?
04:28
cannot the Asiaticks and Africans
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Asyalilarin ve Afrikalilarin...
04:30
invade their coasts,
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sahillerine saldirdilar.
04:32
plant colonies in their ports,
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Oraya neden somurge kolonilerini kurdular?
04:34
and give laws to their natural princes?
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ve neden oralarin prenslerine kendi belirledikleri yasalari verdiler?
04:37
The same wind that carries them back
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Onlari geriye tasiyan ruzgar...
04:40
would bring us thither?"
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bizi gidecegimiz yere ulastirir mi?
04:42
That's a great question.
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Bu harika bir soru,
04:44
And you know what,
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Neden oldugunu biliyorsunuz.
04:46
it was also being asked at roughly the same time
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Bu soru bir cok kez soruldu...
04:48
by the Resterners -- by the people in the rest of the world --
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Digerleri tarafindan; Dunyanin geri kalan insanlari tarafindan.
04:51
like Ibrahim Muteferrika,
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Ibrahim Muteferrika gibi.
04:54
an Ottoman official,
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bir Osmanli gorevlisi.
04:56
the man who introduced printing, very belatedly,
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Matbayi Osmanli Imparatorlugu'na gec de olsa,
04:59
to the Ottoman Empire --
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getiren adam.
05:01
who said in a book published in 1731,
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1731 de yayinlanan bir kitapta...
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"Why do Christian nations which were so weak in the past
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"Hristiyan toplumlari gecmiste neden...
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compared with Muslim nations
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Musluman toplumlarina gore geri kalmislardi?
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begin to dominate so many lands in modern times
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Neden bir cok kitayi modern zamanlar da domine etmeye basladilar,
05:12
and even defeat the once victorious Ottoman armies?"
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ve nasil oldu da guclu Osmanli ordusunu yenebildiler?
05:16
Unlike Rasselas,
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Rasselas'tan farkli olarak...
05:18
Muteferrika had an answer to that question,
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Muteferrika'nin bu soruya bir cevabi vardi.
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which was correct.
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dogru bir cevapti da.
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He said it was "because they have laws and rules
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'Cunku onlarin kanun ve kurallari vardi...
05:27
invented by reason."
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bir sebepten kesfedilen kural ve kanunlar".
05:31
It's not geography.
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Bu Cografya degil.
05:34
You may think we can explain the Great Divergence
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Buyuk Diverjans'i Cografya ile...
05:36
in terms of geography.
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aciklayabilecegimizi dusunebilirsiniz.
05:38
We know that's wrong,
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Bu yanlis olurdu.
05:40
because we conducted two great natural experiments in the 20th century
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Cunku 20. yuzyil da yapilan iki dogal deneyle,
05:42
to see if geography mattered more than institutions.
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bize bu konunun Cografya'dan daha fazla alani ilgilendirdigini gorduk.
05:44
We took all the Germans,
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Tum Almanlar'i ele aldik.
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we divided them roughly in two,
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2'ye bolduk,
05:49
and we gave the ones in the East communism,
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Dogu Almanya'ya komunizm verdik,
05:52
and you see the result.
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ve sonuc ortada.
05:55
Within an incredibly short period of time,
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Inanilmaz kisa bir zaman da,
05:57
people living in the German Democratic Republic
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Demokratik Almanya'da yasayan insanlar,
05:59
produced Trabants, the Trabbi,
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Trabants ve Trabbi urettiler.
06:02
one of the world's worst ever cars,
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Bunlar Dunya'nin en kotu otomobilleriydiler.
06:05
while people in the West produced the Mercedes Benz.
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Bati Almanya'daki insanlar ise Mercedes Benz'i urettiler.
06:08
If you still don't believe me,
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Eger hala bana inanmiyorsaniz...
06:10
we conducted the experiment also in the Korean Peninsula.
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Kore ve Peninsula'da da benzer sonuclari gorduk.
06:12
And we decided we'd take Koreans
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Korelileri secmeye karar verdik.
06:14
in roughly the same geographical place
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hemen hemen ayni cografyada...
06:16
with, notice, the same basic traditional culture,
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ayni temel kulturu goz onunde tutarak,
06:20
and we divided them in two, and we gave the Northerners communism.
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onlari ikiye bolduk ve Kuzey'lilere Komunizm verdik.
06:23
And the result is an even bigger divergence
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Ve sonuclar daha buyuk bir farka isaret etti.
06:26
in a very short space of time
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Cok kisa bir zaman da,
06:28
than happened in Germany.
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Almanya'da olan,
06:30
Not a big divergence in terms of uniform design for border guards admittedly,
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sınır muhafızları için üniforma tasarımı buyuk bir fark degildi dogrusu,
06:34
but in almost every other respect,
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ama hemen her bir saygin goruste de,
06:36
it's a huge divergence.
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Bu cok buyuk bir fark yaratti.
06:38
Which leads me to think
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Oyle bir fark ki beni dusunmeye sevk etti.
06:40
that neither geography nor national character,
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ne Cografya ne de ulusal karakterlik,
06:42
popular explanations for this kind of thing,
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Bu sey populer aciklamalara dayali.
06:44
are really significant.
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Ve cok bariz...
06:47
It's the ideas.
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Bu is dusuncede bitiyor.
06:49
It's the institutions.
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Esas konumuz bu iste!
06:51
This must be true
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Dogru olmali bu.
06:53
because a Scotsman said it.
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Cunku bir Iskocyali soyledi bunu.
06:55
And I think I'm the only Scotsman here at the Edinburgh TED.
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Ve bence Edinburg TED bunyesindeki tek Iskoc benim.
06:58
So let me just explain to you
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Peki, birakin da size aciklayayim...
07:00
that the smartest man ever was a Scotsman.
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Gelmis gecmis en zeki adamin Iskoc oldugunu.
07:03
He was Adam Smith --
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Adi Adam Smith idi.
07:05
not Billy Connolly, not Sean Connery --
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Billy Conolly degildi , Sean Connery de degildi.
07:08
though he is very smart indeed.
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Cok ama cok zekiydi.
07:11
(Laughter)
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(Kahkaha)
07:14
Smith -- and I want you to go
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Smith-- ve ben gitmeni istiyorum
07:16
and bow down before his statue in the Royal Mile;
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ve Royal Mile onun heykeli önünde eğilecek,
07:19
it's a wonderful statue --
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Cok guzel bir heykeldir.
07:21
Smith, in the "Wealth of Nations"
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Smith, "Uluslarin serveti"
07:23
published in 1776 --
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1776 da yayimlandi.
07:25
that's the most important thing that happened that year ...
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O yil meydana gelen en onemli olaydi bu kitap.
07:28
(Laughter)
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(Kahkaha)
07:31
You bet.
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Bahse var misiniz?
07:34
There was a little local difficulty in some of our minor colonies, but ...
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Kucuk kolonilerimiz hakkin da ufak, yerel bir sorunumuz vardi, ama...
07:37
(Laughter)
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(Kahkaha)
07:39
"China seems to have been long stationary,
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"Cin epey bir sabit kalacak gibi gozukuyordu...
07:41
and probably long ago acquired that full complement of riches
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o kadar uzun ki tum zenginlikler onun oluncaya kara...
07:44
which is consistent with the nature of its laws and institutions.
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Bu onun kanunlari ve Enstituleri ile ayandi...
07:48
But this complement may be much inferior
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Ama bu soz buna az bile kalabilir...
07:50
to what, with other laws and institutions,
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Daha bir cok enstitu ve kanunlari vardi...
07:53
the nature of its soil, climate, and situation
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topragin,iklimin, ve her turlu durumun dogasi...
07:55
might admit of."
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itiraf etmeleri gereken."
07:57
That is so right and so cool.
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Bu soz cok dogru, bunu rahatca soyleyebilirim.
07:59
And he said it such a long time ago.
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Cok uzun zaman once soyledi bu sozu.
08:02
But you know, this is a TED audience,
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Ama bilirsiniz, bu TED dinliyicileri,
08:05
and if I keep talking about institutions,
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bu konular hakkinda konusmaya devam edersem,
08:07
you're going to turn off.
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beni burdan kovarsiniz.
08:09
So I'm going to translate this into language that you can understand.
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Simdi bunu sizin anlayicaginiz dile cevirecegim.
08:13
Let's call them the killer apps.
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Gelin onlara katil uygulamalar diyelim.
08:17
I want to explain to you that there were six killer apps
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Size 6 katil uygulamayi anlatmak istiyorum.
08:20
that set the West apart from the rest.
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Bati'yi digerlerinden ayiran 6 katil uygulamayi.
08:23
And they're kind of like the apps on your phone,
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Ve bunlar cep telefonlarinizdaki uygulamalar gibi.
08:25
in the sense that they look quite simple.
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cok basit gorunurler boyle hissedersiniz.
08:27
They're just icons; you click on them.
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Sadece ikonlardir, onlara tiklarsiniz.
08:29
But behind the icon, there's complex code.
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Ama ikonun arkasinda karisik bir kod bulunur.
08:32
It's the same with institutions.
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Enstitulerde oldugunun aynisi.
08:34
There are six
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Buyuk Diverjans (fark)'i aciklayabilecegimi,
08:36
which I think explain the Great Divergence.
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dusundugum 6 madde var.
08:39
One, competition.
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Ilk olarak, rekabet.
08:41
Two, the scientific revolution.
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2, Endustriel Devrim.
08:43
Three, property rights.
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3, mulk haklari,
08:45
Four, modern medicine.
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4, modern tip.
08:47
Five, the consumer society.
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5, tuketim toplumu,
08:49
And six, the work ethic.
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Ve son olarak da, calisma ahlaki.
08:51
You can play a game and try and think of one I've missed at,
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Bir oyun oynayip dusunebilirsiniz, bir kacini...
08:53
or try and boil it down to just four,
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atlayip, veya eksik saydigimi, veya bunlari
08:56
but you'll lose.
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4 maddeye indirebileceginizi. Ama kaybedersiniz.
08:58
(Laughter)
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(Kahkaha)
09:00
Let me very briefly tell you what I mean by this,
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Hadi size cesur bir sekilde neyi kastettigimi aciklayayim.
09:03
synthesizing the work of many economic historians
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birçok ekonomik tarihçilerin çalışmaları sentezleme...
09:06
in the process.
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sonucun da,
09:08
Competition means,
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Rekabeti anlamini aciklayacagim.
09:10
not only were there a hundred different political units in Europe in 1500,
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1500 lerde Avrupa'da sayisi 100 den az, farkli politik grubun...
09:12
but within each of these units,
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oldugu, ancak bu gruplar icinde,
09:14
there was competition between corporations as well as sovereigns.
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şirketlerin yanı sıra egemenlerin arasında da rekabet vardı.
09:18
The ancestor of the modern corporation, the City of London Corporation,
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Modern sirketlerin atasi , Londra Sehir Sirketi,
09:21
existed in the 12th century.
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12. yuzyilda hayattaydi.
09:23
Nothing like this existed in China,
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Boyle birsey Cin'de olmadi.
09:25
where there was one monolithic state
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Monolotik Devletin oldugu yerde,
09:27
covering a fifth of humanity,
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insanligin 5te biri bulunuyordu,
09:29
and anyone with any ambition
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Herhangi hirsi olan herhangi biri,
09:31
had to pass one standardized examination,
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standart testi gecmek zorundaydi.
09:33
which took three days and was very difficult
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Bu test kisinin 3 gununu aliyordu ve cok zordu.
09:35
and involved memorizing vast numbers of characters
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Cesitli numara karakterlerini hafizada tutma,
09:38
and very complex Confucian essay writing.
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ve cok karisik , kompleks makale yazimi bu testlerin arasindaydi.
09:42
The scientific revolution was different
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Bilimsel Devrim, Oryantal Dunya'da basarilan,
09:45
from the science that had been achieved in the Oriental world
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bilimden daha farkliydi.
09:48
in a number of crucial ways,
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Bircok ozel yolla.
09:50
the most important being
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En onemlisi,
09:52
that, through the experimental method,
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deneysel yontemdi.
09:54
it gave men control over nature in a way that had not been possible before.
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Bu kisinin dogayi kontrol altina almasini sagliyordu. Ve onceden boyle birsey imkansizdi.
09:57
Example: Benjamin Robins's extraordinary application
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Ornek olarak, Benjamin Robins'in siradisi uygulamasini verebilirim.
10:01
of Newtonian physics to ballistics.
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Newton'un fizik ile balistik uzerinde calismalari hakkindaki uygulamalari.
10:04
Once you do that,
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Bunu yaptiginizda,
10:06
your artillery becomes accurate.
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savas topculariniz daha hassas,isabetli hedef vurabilirler.
10:09
Think of what that means.
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Bunun ne demek oldugunu bir dusunsenize...
10:11
That really was a killer application.
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Gercek bir oldurme uygulamasi.
10:13
(Laughter)
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(Kahkaha)
10:16
Meanwhile, there's no scientific revolution anywhere else.
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Boyle bir Bilimsel Devrim hic bir yerde gorulmedi.
10:19
The Ottoman Empire's not that far from Europe,
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Osmanli Imparatorlugu Avrupa'dan o kadar da uzak degildi.
10:21
but there's no scientific revolution there.
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ancak orada Bilimsel bir Devrim yoktu.
10:23
In fact, they demolish Taqi al-Din's observatory,
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Aslinda, onlar Taqi-al-Din'in rasathanesini yikmislardi.
10:26
because it's considered blasphemous
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Cunku onlari kafir olarak gormuslerdi.
10:28
to inquire into the mind of God.
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kendi inanclarinda.
10:31
Property rights: It's not the democracy, folks;
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Mulkiyet haklari: Bunlar demokrasi degildir , millet;
10:34
it's having the rule of law based on private property rights.
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Kanun kuralllarina gore, ozel mulkiyet haklari elde edilir.
10:37
That's what makes the difference
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Bu da farki olusturuyor.
10:39
between North America and South America.
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Kuzey ve Guney Amerika arasindaki.
10:41
You could turn up in North America
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Simdi Kuzey Amerika'yi ele alalim.
10:43
having signed a deed of indenture
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kapsamli bir senet imzaladilar.
10:45
saying, "I'll work for nothing for five years.
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"5 yil boyunca calismayacagim, beni besleyin yeter".
10:47
You just have to feed me."
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adi altinda bir senet bu.
10:49
But at the end of it, you've got a hundred acres of land.
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Ama bunun sonunda,yuzlerce hektarlik kara parcasi kisinin oluyordu.
10:52
That's the land grant
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Cok buyuk bir alan,
10:54
on the bottom half of the slide.
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Cok buyuk.
10:56
That's not possible in Latin America
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Bu Latin Amerika'da mumkun degil.
10:59
where land is held onto
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Kara parcalarinin oldugu yerde,
11:01
by a tiny elite descended from the conquistadors.
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fatihlerden olusan kucuk bir elit grup vardi.
11:03
And you can see here the huge divergence
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Ve burada ki buyuk diverjansi(degisimi,farki) gorebilirsiniz.
11:05
that happens in property ownership between North and South.
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Kuzey ve Guney arasinda ki mulkiyet sahipligi arasindaki farki.
11:08
Most people in rural North America
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Kuzey Amerika'nin kirsal bolumundeki insanlarin cogu,
11:10
owned some land by 1900.
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1900'de cesitli arsalara sahiplerdi.
11:13
Hardly anyone in South America did.
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Guney Amerika'da bunu neredeyse kimse yapamadi.
11:15
That's another killer app.
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Diger bir katil uygulama olarak,
11:18
Modern medicine in the late 19th century
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19, yuzyilin sonlarin daki, Modern Tip'i verebilirim,
11:20
began to make major breakthroughs
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buyuk atilimlar gerceklestirildi bu alanda.
11:22
against the infectious diseases that killed a lot of people.
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Bir cok insani olduren amansiz hastaliklara karsi...
11:24
And this was another killer app --
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Ve bu diger bir katil uygulama iste--
11:26
the very opposite of a killer,
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Bir katilin tam tersine,
11:28
because it doubled, and then more than doubled, human life expectancy.
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cunku bu iki kat, iki kattan da fazla...
11:31
It even did that
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bu sekilde insanlarin yasam isteklerini arttirdilar.
11:33
in the European empires.
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Bunlar Avrupa Imparatorluklarinda meydana geldi.
11:35
Even in places like Senegal,
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Senegal'de ise bu gelismeler...
11:37
beginning in the early 20th century,
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20. yuzyilin basin da gerceklesebildi ancak.
11:39
there were major breakthroughs in public health,
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halk sagligin da buyuk capta atilimlar gerceklestirildi.
11:41
and life expectancy began to rise.
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ve insanlarin yasam arzulari yukselmeye basladi.
11:43
It doesn't rise any faster
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Bu ulkeler bagimsiz olduktan sonra,
11:45
after these countries become independent.
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cok daha fazla yukselmeye basladi.
11:47
The empires weren't all bad.
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Imparatorluklarin hepsi kotu degildi.
11:49
The consumer society is what you need
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Ihtiyaclari olan toplum tuketimiydi.
11:51
for the Industrial Revolution to have a point.
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Endustri Devriminden soz ediyorum.
11:54
You need people to want to wear tons of clothes.
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Insanlarin tonlarca kiyafet giymelerini istediler.
11:56
You've all bought an article of clothing in the last month;
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Eminim ki hepiniz gecen ay, hatiri...
11:58
I guarantee it.
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sayilacak kadar, kiyafet almissinizdir.
12:00
That's the consumer society,
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Iste bu tuketim toplumu.
12:02
and it propels economic growth
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ve bu da ekomomik buyumeye itici bir guc oldu.
12:04
more than even technological change itself.
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Belki de teklonojik degisiminkinden daha fazla.
12:07
Japan was the first non-Western society
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Japonya, bunu kucaklayan,
12:09
to embrace it.
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ilk Bati disi toplum olmustu.
12:11
The alternative,
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Mamatha Gandhi tarafindan onerilen,
12:13
which was proposed by Mahatma Gandhi,
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alternatif secenek...
12:15
was to institutionalize and make poverty permanent.
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kurumsallastirmak ve gucu kalici hale geritmekti.
12:18
Very few Indians today
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Bugun, cok az sayida Hindu...
12:20
wish that India had gone down
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Hindistan'in asagilara dusmesini...
12:22
Mahatma Gandhi's road.
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Gandhi'nin yoluna dusmesini istiyor,
12:25
Finally, the work ethic.
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Son olarak, calisma ahlaki.
12:27
Max Weber thought that was peculiarly Protestant.
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Max Weber acayip bir sekilde Protestan oldugunu dusunuyordu.
12:30
He was wrong.
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Yaniliyordu.
12:32
Any culture can get the work ethic
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Her kulturun calisma etigi vardir:
12:34
if the institutions are there
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eger orada kurumlar
12:36
to create the incentive to work.
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calismaya tesvik ediyorsa
12:38
We know this
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Biliyoruz cunku...
12:40
because today the work ethic
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gunumuzde calisma ahlaki
12:42
is no longer a Protestant, Western phenomenon.
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artik Protestant degil, Bati fenomeni.
12:45
In fact, the West has lost its work ethic.
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Aslinda, Bati calisma ahlakini kaybetti.
12:48
Today, the average Korean
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Bugun, Koreliler...
12:51
works a thousand hours more a year
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Almanlara nazaran yilda bin saat...
12:55
than the average German --
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daha fazla calisiyorlar.
12:57
a thousand.
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Bin.
12:59
And this is part
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Ve iste bu siradisi bir fenomenin,
13:01
of a really extraordinary phenomenon,
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bir gercek bolumu,
13:04
and that is the end of the Great Divergence.
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Ve iste Buyuk Diverjans'in sonu.
13:07
Who's got the work ethic now?
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Kim su anda calisma ahlakina sahip?
13:09
Take a look at mathematical attainment
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15 seneliklerin,
13:12
by 15 year-olds.
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Matematiksel kazanimlarina bakalim.
13:14
At the top of the international league table
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Uluslararasi ligin zirvesinde
13:16
according to the latest PISA study,
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PISA'nin son calismasina gore,
13:19
is the Shanghai district of China.
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Cin sinirlari icindeki Sanghai bulunuyor.
13:21
The gap between Shanghai
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Shangai , ABD ve Ingiltere arasindaki
13:23
and the United Kingdom and the United States
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bosluk, Ingitere ve ABD arasindaki...
13:26
is as big as the gap between the U.K. and the U.S.
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bosluk kadar.
13:29
and Albania and Tunisia.
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Arnavutluk ve Tunus gibi.
13:32
You probably assume
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Simdi iPhone'un Kaliforniya'da,
13:34
that because the iPhone was designed in California
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tasarlandigini varsayabilirsiniz..
13:36
but assembled in China
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fakat Cin'de montajlandi.
13:38
that the West still leads in terms of technological innovation.
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Bati halen Teklonojik yenilikler alaninda lider.
13:41
You're wrong.
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Yaniliyorsunuz.
13:43
In terms of patents,
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Patentler alaninda...
13:45
there's no question that the East is ahead.
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Dogu'nun ustunlugu tartisilamaz...
13:47
Not only has Japan been ahead for some time,
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Sadece Japonya bir sureligine onde degildi.
13:50
South Korea has gone into third place,
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Guney Kore ucunculuge gitti.
13:53
and China is just about to overtake Germany.
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ve Cin Almanya'yi alasagi etmek uzereydi.
13:56
Why?
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Neden?
13:58
Because the killer apps can be downloaded.
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Cunku Katil Uygulamalar indirilebilirdi.
14:00
It's open source.
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Acik bir kaynak bu.
14:02
Any society can adopt these institutions,
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Her sosyal toplum bu uygulamalara adapte olabilir.
14:04
and when they do,
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ve yaptiklarinda...
14:06
they achieve what the West achieved after 1500 --
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Bati'nin 1500 yilindan sonra basardigini
14:10
only faster.
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anca yapabiliyorlar.
14:12
This is the Great Reconvergence,
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Iste bu Buyuk Yakinsama.
14:14
and it's the biggest story of your lifetime.
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ve bu sizin hayatinizin en buyuk hikayesi.
14:18
Because it's on your watch that this is happening.
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Cunku olanlarin hepsi sizin saatiniz uzerinde gerceklesiyor.
14:21
It's our generation
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Bizim neslimiz...
14:23
that is witnessing the end of Western predominance.
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Bati Hakimiyeti'nin sonuna sahit oluyor.
14:25
The average American used to be more than 20 times richer
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Ortalama Amerika'lilar eskiden Cin'e gore
14:27
than the average Chinese.
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20 kat daha fazla zengindiler.
14:29
Now it's just five times,
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Simdi ise 5 kat.
14:31
and soon it will be 2.5 times.
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Yakinda 2.5 kat olacak.
14:33
So I want to end with three questions
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Peki, 3 soruyla bitirmek istiyorum.
14:36
for the future billions,
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gelecekteki milyarlar icin...
14:38
just ahead of 2016,
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Onumuzdeki 2016 icin...
14:41
when the United States will lose its place
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ABD'nin ekonomik yerini Cin'e...
14:43
as number one economy to China.
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birakacagi zaman bu.
14:46
The first is, can you delete these apps,
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Ilk sorum, bu uygulamalari kaldirabilir miyiz...
14:50
and are we in the process of doing so
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Bati Dunyasinda...
14:52
in the Western world?
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acaba su an bunun uzerinde mi calisiyoruz...
14:54
The second question is,
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Ikinci sorum,
14:56
does the sequencing of the download matter?
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Indirme islem sirasi farklilik gosteriyor mu?
15:00
And could Africa get that sequencing wrong?
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Ve acaba Afrika bu siralamayi yanlis hale getirebilir mi?
15:05
One obvious implication of modern economic history
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Modern Ekonomik tarihin en acik ve etkili ornegi...
15:07
is that it's quite hard to transition to democracy
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Demokrasiye gecisin zorlugudur.
15:10
before you've established
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Yayinlamadan once...
15:12
secure private property rights.
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ozel mulkiyet haklarini korumaktan bahsediyorum.
15:15
Warning: that may not work.
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Size bir uyari: bu ise yaramayabilir.
15:18
And third, can China do without
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Ve ucuncu olarak, Cin...
15:20
killer app number three?
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3 nolu katil uygulamasiz yapabilir mi?
15:22
That's the one that John Locke systematized
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Iste bu bir John Locke sistemi.
15:26
when he said that freedom was rooted in private property rights
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John, ozgurlugun koku, "ozel mulkiyet haklarina ve kanunun korunmasina dayaniyor"
15:30
and the protection of law.
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dedigi zaman bu sistem anlasilmisti.
15:32
That's the basis
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Iste bu temeldir...
15:34
for the Western model
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Bati Hukumet Modeli...
15:36
of representative government.
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icin.
15:39
Now this picture shows the demolition
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Simdi bu tablo yikimi gosteriyor.
15:41
of the Chinese artist Ai Weiwei's studio
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Cin'li sanatci Ai Weiwe'nin studyosu.
15:44
in Shanghai earlier this year.
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Bu yilin baslarin da Shanghai'da.
15:46
He's now free again,
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O simdi yine ozgur.
15:48
having been detained, as you know, for some time.
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bir aralar goz altina alinmisti.
15:50
But I don't think his studio has been rebuilt.
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Ama bu studyonun yeniden yapildigini sanmiyorum.
15:55
Winston Churchill once defined civilization
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Winston Churchill bir keresinde medeniyeti tanimlamisti.
15:59
in a lecture he gave in the fateful year of 1938.
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1938 yilin da vermis oldugu bir derste.
16:03
And I think these words really nail it:
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Ve bence bu sozler tam yerine oturacak.
16:06
"It means a society based upon the opinion of civilians.
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"Sosyal Devlet sivillerin dusuncelerine gore bina edilir".
16:10
It means that violence, the rule of warriors and despotic chiefs,
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Bu demek oluyor ki, siddet savascilarin kurallari...
16:13
the conditions of camps and warfare, of riot and tyranny,
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ve despotik seflerin kamp ve savaslardaki kosullari...
16:16
give place to parliaments where laws are made,
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isyan ve zulumun parlementlere yasalarla cikartilmasi icin kapi aciyor.
16:19
and independent courts of justice
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ve bagimsiz Adalet Makamlarinin
16:21
in which over long periods those laws are maintained.
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uzun donemli yasalari yaptiklari donem.
16:24
That is civilization --
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Iste bu medeniyetin ta kendisi.
16:26
and in its soil grow continually
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Ve bu toprak surekli buyuyor,
16:28
freedom, comfort and culture,"
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ozgurluk, rahatlik ve kultur.
16:31
what all TEDsters care about most.
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TED cilerin tek umursadiklari sey.
16:35
"When civilization reigns in any country,
389
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"Medeniyet bir toplumda hukmettigi zaman,
16:38
a wider and less harassed life
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insan kitleleri icin...
16:41
is afforded to the masses of the people."
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daha uzun ve az hasarli yasamlar ortaya cikar...
16:44
That's so true.
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Bu cok dogru.
16:48
I don't think the decline of Western civilization
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Bence Bati medeniyetlesmesi reddedilmemeli.
16:51
is inevitable,
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Bu kacinilmaz.
16:53
because I don't think history operates
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cunku bence bunu tarih yonetmiyor.
16:56
in this kind of life-cycle model,
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Bu yasam dongusu modeli gibi.
16:58
beautifully illustrated by Thomas Cole's
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Thomas Cole'un guzel ve bir sozu var...
17:00
"Course of Empire" paintings.
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"Imparatorluk Dersleri" resimleri.
17:03
That's not the way history works.
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Tarih boyle islemiyor.
17:06
That's not the way the West rose,
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Bu Bati buyudugu icin degil...
17:08
and I don't think it's the way the West will fall.
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ve bence bu Bati'nin dusecegi ile ilgili de degil.
17:11
The West may collapse very suddenly.
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Bati aniden bocalayabilir.
17:14
Complex civilizations do that,
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Karisik medeniyetler bunu yapar.
17:17
because they operate, most of the time,
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Cunku zamanin cogunu onlar yonetiyorlar.
17:19
on the edge of chaos.
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hem de Kaos'un sinirinda.
17:21
That's one of the most profound insights
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Bu derin anlayislardan bir tanesi.
17:24
to come out of the historical study of complex institutions
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Karisik uygulamalara tarihsel bir calisma ile cozum getirmek.
17:27
like civilizations.
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Medeniyetler gibi.
17:30
No, we may hang on,
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Hayir, sebep oldugumuz borclarin yukune
17:32
despite the huge burdens of debt that we've accumulated,
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kaybettigimiz calisma ahlakinin yerine...
17:36
despite the evidence that we've lost our work ethic
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tutunabiliriz.
17:39
and other parts of our historical mojo.
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ve tarihin diger bolumlerine.
17:42
But one thing is for sure,
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Ancak tek bir seyden eminiz ki...
17:44
the Great Divergence
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Buyuk Diverjans...
17:46
is over, folks.
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artik sona erdi beyler.
17:48
Thanks very much.
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Cok tesekkur ederim.
17:50
(Applause)
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(Alkis)
18:15
Bruno Giussani: Niall,
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Bruno Giussani: Niall,
18:17
I am just curious
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Sadece sunu merak ediyorum...
18:19
about your take on the other region of the world that's booming,
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Dunya'nin patlak verdigi bir bolge olarak...
18:22
which is Latin America.
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Latin Amerika'yi ele alman hakkinda.
18:25
What's your view on that?
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Burada ki bakis acin nedir?
18:28
Niall Ferguson: Well I really am not just talking
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Niall Ferguson: Ben burada sadece...
18:30
about the rise of the East;
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Dogu'nun yukselisi hakkinda konusmuyorum.
18:32
I'm talking about the rise of the Rest,
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Geri kalanlarin yukselisi hakkinda konusuyorum.
18:34
and that includes South America.
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Buna Guney Amerika da dahil.
18:36
I once asked one of my colleagues at Harvard,
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Bir keresin de Harvard'taki bir meslektasima sormustum...
18:38
"Hey, is South America part of the West?"
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" Guney Amerika Bati'nin bir parcasi midir?" diye
18:40
He was an expert in Latin American history.
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O bir Latin Amerika Tarihi uzmaniydi.
18:42
He said, "I don't know; I'll have to think about that."
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Dedi ki, " Bilmiyorum; bunun icin dusunmem gerek"
18:44
That tells you something really important.
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Bu da onemli bir sey oldugunu soyluyor.
18:46
I think if you look at what is happening in Brazil in particular,
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Bence ozel olarak Brezilya'da ne olduguna bakarsaniz...
18:48
but also Chile,
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ama Cin'de oyle...
18:50
which was in many ways the one that led the way
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bu da bircok yolla birilerinin biraktigi sekilde...
18:53
in transforming the institutions of economic life,
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Ekonomik Yasam Uygulamalarinin gecis surecinde...
18:56
there's a very bright future indeed.
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cok onemli bir gelecek yatiyor.
18:59
So my story really is
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Yani asil hikayem...
19:01
as much about that convergence in the Americas
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Amerika'daki genel yakinsama hakkinda.
19:04
as it's a convergence story in Eurasia.
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Avrasya'ya yakinsama hikayesi.
19:06
BG: And there is this impression
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BG: Iste bu cok etkili.
19:08
that North America and Europe
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Kuzey Amerika ve Avrupa...
19:10
are not really paying attention
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bu trendlere...
19:12
to these trends.
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yeterince dikkat etmiyor.
19:14
Mostly they're worried about each other.
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Onlar cogu zaman kendi aralarinda endiseleniyorlar...
19:17
The Americans think that the European model is going to crumble tomorrow.
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Amerikalilar Avrupalilarin ilerde parcalanacagini dusunuyorlar.
19:20
The Europeans think that the American budget is going to explode tomorrow.
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Avrupalilar da Amerikalilarin patlama yapacagini dusunuyorlar.
19:23
And that's all we seem to be caring about recently.
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Ve bu son zamanlarda gordugumuz bir sey.
19:26
NF: I think the fiscal crisis
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NF: Bence gelisen Dunya'da gordugumuz...
19:28
that we see in the developed World right now -- both sides of the Atlantic --
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mali kriz Atlantik'in iki yani icin de gecerli.
19:31
is essentially the same thing
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Aslinda ayni sey.
19:33
taking different forms
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Ama farkli formdalar.
19:35
in terms of political culture.
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Politik Kulturun olusturdugu farklar.
19:37
And it's a crisis that has its structural facet --
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Ve bu kriz yapisal bir yuzde.
19:41
it's partly to do with demographics.
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Ulkenin nufus dagiliminin bir parcasi.
19:43
But it's also, of course, to do with the massive crisis
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Elbette, buyuk capta ki krizler icin...
19:46
that followed excessive leverage,
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kullanilan kaldiraclar var.
19:48
excessive borrowing in the private sector.
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Ozel sektoru odunc alan kaldiraclar bunlar.
19:50
That crisis,
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Buyuk dikkat ceken kriz...
19:52
which has been the focus of so much attention, including by me,
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buna ben de dahilim.
19:55
I think is an epiphenomenon.
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Bence bu epifenomonidir.
19:57
The financial crisis is really a relatively small historic phenomenon,
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Finansal kriz gercekten de sadece
20:00
which has just accelerated
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bu hızlı değişimi
20:02
this huge shift,
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ivmelendirmeden ibaret bir olay.
20:04
which ends half a millennium of Western ascendancy.
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Bu da Bati'nin ustunlugunun sonunu getirdi.
20:06
I think that's its real importance.
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Bence bu gercekten cok onemli.
20:08
BG: Niall, thank you. (NF: Thank you very much, Bruno.)
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BG: Niall, tesekkur ederim. (NF; Cok tesekkur ederim , Bruno.)
20:10
(Applause)
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(Alkis)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Niall Ferguson - HistorianHistory is a curious thing, and Niall Ferguson investigates not only what happened but why. (Hint: Politics and money explain a lot.)
Why you should listen
Niall Ferguson teaches history and business administration at Harvard and is a senior research fellow at several other universities, including Oxford. His books chronicle a wide range of political and socio-economic events; he has written about everything from German politics during the era of inflation to a financial history of the world. He’s now working on a biography of former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.
Ferguson is a prolific and often controversial commentator on contemporary politics and economics. He frequently writes, reviews, and hosts for the British and American press. His latest book and TV series, Civilization: The West and the Rest, aims to help 21st-century audiences understand the past and the present. In it, he asks how, since the 1500s, Western nations have surpassed their Eastern counterparts and came to dominate the world (his answer: thanks to six “killer apps”: science, medicine, protestant work ethic, competition, property rights, consumer society). And he wonders whether that domination is now threatened by the rise of Asia. His theories have drawn criticism and prompted discussions, which he says was his intent. “It’s designed to be slightly annoying, so that you talk about it,” he told The Observer.
He says: "If a majority of people subscribe to a particular view, it pays to question it. It pays to think: maybe this is wrong."
Niall Ferguson | Speaker | TED.com