TEDxBrussels
Paddy Ashdown: The global power shift
帕迪·阿什当: 全球权力转移
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在 TEDx布鲁塞尔一个吸引的演讲上，帕迪·阿什当声称我们生活在历史从没有过权力改变的一刻。他看到并概括出三个主要的将来临的全球转移现象。
Paddy Ashdown - Diplomat
Paddy Ashdown is a former member of the British Parliament and a diplomat with a lifelong commitment to international cooperation. Full bio
Paddy Ashdown is a former member of the British Parliament and a diplomat with a lifelong commitment to international cooperation. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
There's a poem written
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十九世纪末
00:17
by a very famous English poet
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英国一位着名诗人
00:19
at the end of the 19th century.
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写了这样一首诗
00:21
It was said to echo in Churchill's brain
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在 1930 年时，它被誉为
00:24
in the 1930s.
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丘吉尔脑海中的回响
00:26
And the poem goes:
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诗是这样的
00:28
"On the idle hill of summer,
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闲荡夏林间
00:30
lazy with the flow of streams,
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溪自细细流
00:32
hark I hear a distant drummer,
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遥听远鼓响
00:34
drumming like a sound in dreams,
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鼓乐疑梦音
00:36
far and near and low and louder on the roads of earth go by,
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无常世间道
00:39
dear to friend and food to powder,
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珍重朋与辈，碾食成粉末
00:42
soldiers marching,
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战士踏征途
00:44
soon to die."
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魂销沙场渺
00:46
Those who are interested in poetry,
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对诗词有兴趣的朋友
00:48
the poem is "A Shropshire Lad" written by A.E. Housman.
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这是豪斯曼的《施罗普希尔的少年》
00:51
But what Housman understood,
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但豪斯曼感悟些什么呢
00:53
and you hear it in the symphonies of Nielsen too,
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和你在尼尔森交响乐中听到的一样
00:57
was that the long, hot, silvan summers
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是那19 世纪，又长，又闷热,
01:01
of stability of the 19th century
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平静的夏季森林
01:03
were coming to a close,
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即将结束
01:05
and that we were about to move
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我们将进入
01:07
into one of those terrifying periods of history
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一个可怕的
01:09
when power changes.
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权力转变的历史周期
01:11
And these are always periods, ladies and gentlemen,
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女士先生们，这时代通常会
01:13
accompanied by turbulence,
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伴随着动乱
01:16
and all too often by blood.
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和流血事件
01:18
And my message for you
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我给你的信息是
01:20
is that I believe we are condemned, if you like,
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我相信我们坐上了同一条船
01:22
to live at just one of those moments in history
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活在历史洪流中的同一时刻
01:25
when the gimbals upon which
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当你遇上
01:27
the established order of power is beginning to change
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固有权力的秩序开始改变
01:30
and the new look of the world,
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新世界
01:32
the new powers that exist in the world,
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新力量
01:35
are beginning to take form.
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开始形成
01:37
And these are -- and we see it very clearly today --
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这些 -- 我们今天很清楚看见
01:40
nearly always highly turbulent times, highly difficult times,
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都是些超混乱，特艰难的年代
01:43
and all too often very bloody times.
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和常有的流血时期。
01:45
By the way, it happens about once every century.
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顺道一提，它大概一世纪出现一次
01:48
You might argue that the last time it happened --
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你也许不认同最后那次的发生时间 –
01:50
and that's what Housman felt coming and what Churchill felt too --
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就是豪斯曼和丘吉尔同时察觉的
01:53
was that when power passed from the old nations,
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欧洲旧国家，旧势力
01:56
the old powers of Europe,
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权力转移到
01:58
across the Atlantic to the new emerging power
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大西洋对岸
02:00
of the United States of America --
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新冒起的美国
02:02
the beginning of the American century.
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开始了美国世纪
02:04
And of course, into the vacuum
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当然，在欧洲势力下坡的最后年代
02:06
where the too-old European powers used to be
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交替的空窗期
02:09
were played the two bloody catastrophes
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出现了两次
02:12
of the last century --
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屠杀大灾难
02:14
the one in the first part and the one in the second part: the two great World Wars.
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前后两次的世界大战
02:17
Mao Zedong used to refer to them as the European civil wars,
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毛泽东称它为欧洲内战
02:20
and it's probably a more accurate way of describing them.
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这形容确也贴切
02:23
Well, ladies and gentlemen,
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好，女士先生们
02:25
we live at one of those times.
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我们生活在这当下
02:27
But for us, I want to talk about three factors today.
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为了我们，今天我打算谈谈三个原素
02:30
And the first of these, the first two of these,
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这当中的头一个
02:33
is about a shift in power.
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是有关权力转移
02:35
And the second is about some new dimension which I want to refer to,
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至于， 第二个我称它为新领域
02:38
which has never quite happened in the way it's happening now.
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过去好像都没出现过
02:41
But let's talk about the shifts of power that are occurring to the world.
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我们先说说发生中的权力转移
02:44
And what is happening today
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今天出现的
02:46
is, in one sense, frightening
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有点令人惊栗
02:48
because it's never happened before.
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因为它从没发生过
02:51
We have seen lateral shifts of power --
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我们见过权力的横向转移
02:53
the power of Greece passed to Rome
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权力从希腊过渡到罗马
02:56
and the power shifts that occurred
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和欧洲社会
02:58
during the European civilizations --
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出现的权力转移
03:01
but we are seeing something slightly different.
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但我们看到的现状稍异
03:03
For power is not just moving laterally
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权力不单是横向
03:05
from nation to nation.
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在国与国间游走
03:07
It's also moving vertically.
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它也纵向移动
03:09
What's happening today is that the power that was encased,
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今天出现的权力转移，更包括
03:12
held to accountability, held to the rule of law,
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和国家宪法里的
03:15
within the institution of the nation state
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责任和法律的裁决
03:18
has now migrated in very large measure onto the global stage.
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今天都很大程度搬上了国际舞台
03:21
The globalization of power --
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权力全球化
03:23
we talk about the globalization of markets,
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我们讲市场全球化
03:25
but actually it's the globalization of real power.
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但真正全球化的是权力
03:29
And where, at the nation state level
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但在国家层面上
03:31
that power is held to accountability
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权力的层次
03:33
subject to the rule of law,
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是受法律的约束
03:35
on the international stage it is not.
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在国际舞台便不一样
03:38
The international stage and the global stage where power now resides:
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现今国际和环球舞台上的权力属于
03:41
the power of the Internet, the power of the satellite broadcasters,
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互联网、卫星广播
03:44
the power of the money changers --
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货币兑换
03:47
this vast money-go-round
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巨额钞票的流转
03:49
that circulates now 32 times the amount of money necessary
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融资额度约是
03:53
for the trade it's supposed to be there to finance --
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贸易需求的32倍
03:56
the money changers, if you like,
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货币兑客, 你可称之为
03:58
the financial speculators
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金融投机家
04:00
that have brought us all to our knees quite recently,
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近来，他们所为相当令人拜服
04:03
the power of the multinational corporations
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现今跨国企业的
04:05
now developing budgets
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编制预算的财力
04:08
often bigger than medium-sized countries.
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比一般中等国家还要大
04:10
These live in a global space
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生存在国际舞台
04:12
which is largely unregulated,
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绝大部分不受监管
04:14
not subject to the rule of law,
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既不受法律规管
04:17
and in which people may act free of constraint.
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行动又不受约束
04:19
Now that suits the powerful
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直至现在
04:22
up to a moment.
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都有利权势人士
04:24
It's always suitable for those who have the most power
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在无约束下运作
04:27
to operate in spaces without constraint,
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永远适合极权者
04:30
but the lesson of history is that, sooner or later,
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但从历史可知，不久将来
04:33
unregulated space --
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没有监管的区域
04:35
space not subject to the rule of law --
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没有法治的所在
04:37
becomes populated, not just by the things you wanted --
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会不断膨胀，不只出现一些你要的东西
04:40
international trade, the Internet, etc. --
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如国际贸易，互联网，等等
04:42
but also by the things you don't want --
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同时，也会出现些你不要的
04:44
international criminality, international terrorism.
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国际罪案，国际恐怖主义
04:47
The revelation of 9/11
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911 事件揭示
04:49
is that even if you are the most powerful nation on earth,
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即使你身在地球上最强势的国家
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nevertheless,
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城市里最具代表性的地标建筑
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those who inhabit that space can attack you
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不管怎样
04:59
even in your most iconic of cities
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在九月某个明亮的早晨
05:01
one bright September morning.
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那些空间的人民一样能攻击你
05:03
It's said that something like 60 percent
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据说，经双子塔法团通过的
05:05
of the four million dollars that was taken to fund 9/11
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4 百万元流动资金的
05:08
actually passed through the institutions of the Twin Towers
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当中约 60%是用来支助 911 事件的
05:11
which 9/11 destroyed.
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而双子塔就在 9/11 事件中被摧毁
05:13
You see, our enemies also use this space --
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看，我们的敌人也会利用这些空间
05:15
the space of mass travel, the Internet, satellite broadcasters --
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集体运输，互联网，卫星广播
05:18
to be able to get around their poison,
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来解决他们的毒害
05:21
which is about destroying our systems and our ways.
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不久，这会毁掉
05:24
Sooner or later,
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我们的系统
05:26
sooner or later,
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我们的方式
05:28
the rule of history
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历史法则是
05:30
is that where power goes
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权力走到那里
05:32
governance must follow.
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管治便要跟到那里
05:35
And if it is therefore the case, as I believe it is,
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如果这是事实，那我相信
05:37
that one of the phenomenon of our time
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今日社会的其中一个现象
05:39
is the globalization of power,
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既是权力全球化
05:41
then it follows that one of the challenges of our time
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那随之而来的挑战，便应是
05:44
is to bring governance to the global space.
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管治全球化
05:47
And I believe that the decades ahead of us now
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我相信未来的几十年
05:50
will be to a greater or lesser extent turbulent
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将会出现不同程度的骚乱
05:54
the more or less we are able to achieve that aim:
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多少能够成就这个目标
05:57
to bring governance to the global space.
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将管治全球化
05:59
Now notice, I'm not talking about government.
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要注意，我谈的不是政府
06:01
I'm not talking about setting up
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也不是成立
06:03
some global democratic institution.
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一些全球化的民主机构
06:06
My own view, by the way, ladies and gentlemen,
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女士先生们, 顺道一提，我个人认为
06:08
is that this is unlikely to be done
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成立更多联合国类机构
06:10
by spawning more U.N. institutions.
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并不能把事办好
06:12
If we didn't have the U.N., we'd have to invent it.
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如果我们没有这联合国，我们必需成立一个
06:14
The world needs an international forum.
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世界需要一个中介的国际论坛
06:16
It needs a means by which you can legitimize international action.
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去合法化国际的联合行动
06:20
But when it comes to governance of the global space,
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但当涉及管治全球化时
06:22
my guess is this won't happen
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我估计
06:25
through the creation of more U.N. institutions.
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通过更多的联合国类机构也没法达成
06:27
It will actually happen by the powerful coming together
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当权力聚拢的时候才会真正出现
06:30
and making treaty-based systems,
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建立一个以条约为基础的系统
06:32
treaty-based agreements,
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以条约为基础的协议
06:34
to govern that global space.
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来管治这国际舞台
06:36
And if you look, you can see them happening, already beginning to emerge.
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如你有留意，你会看见它正在发生，慢慢浮现
06:39
The World Trade Organization: treaty-based organization,
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世界贸易组织就是条约为本的组织
06:42
entirely treaty-based,
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完全以条约为本
06:44
and yet, powerful enough to hold even the most powerful, the United States,
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在必要时，他的现有势力己足以制衡强国
06:47
to account if necessary.
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如美国
06:49
Kyoto: the beginnings of struggling to create
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京都协议：努力成立
06:51
a treaty-based organization.
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一个条约为本的组织的开始
06:53
The G20:
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G20 （20国集团）：
06:55
we know now that we have to put together an institution
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现在我们知道我们要联合起来
06:57
which is capable of bringing governance
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组织一个有能力管治
06:59
to that financial space for financial speculation.
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国际金融间投机活动的机构
07:02
And that's what the G20 is, a treaty-based institution.
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这便是G20：一个条约为本的机构
07:05
Now there's a problem there,
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现在，问题是，
07:07
and we'll come back to it in a minute,
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我们回头再谈这个
07:09
which is that if you bring the most powerful together
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如果你集中权力
07:12
to make the rules in treaty-based institutions,
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去建立一个条约为本的机构
07:14
to fill that governance space,
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去填充管治空间
07:17
then what happens to the weak who are left out?
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那，那些没参加的弱国怎么办呢
07:20
And that's a big problem,
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这可是大问题
07:22
and we'll return to it in just a second.
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稍后再到回这话题
07:24
So there's my first message,
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所以，我的第一要点是
07:26
that if you are to pass through these turbulent times
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如果你身处这混乱年代
07:29
more or less turbulently,
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不管混乱多还少
07:32
then our success in doing that
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要能成功克服
07:34
will in large measure depend on our capacity
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很大程度取决于我们
07:36
to bring sensible governance
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把合理的管理
07:38
to the global space.
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引进这国际舞台的能力
07:40
And watch that beginning to happen.
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并守护它出现
07:43
My second point is,
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我的第二要点是
07:45
and I know I don't have to talk to an audience like this
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我知道我不必向你们
07:47
about such a thing,
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说这种事
07:49
but power is not just shifting vertically,
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但是，权力不单是纵向移动的
07:52
it's also shifting horizontally.
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它也横向移动
07:54
You might argue that the story, the history of civilizations,
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也许你会从文明进化史角度和我争论
07:57
has been civilizations gathered around seas --
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文明起源于沿海地带
08:00
with the first ones around the Mediterranean,
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地中海沿岸是其中之一
08:03
the more recent ones in the ascendents of Western power around the Atlantic.
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西方最近一次的势力增长在大西洋沿岸
08:07
Well it seems to me
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这我看来
08:09
that we're now seeing a fundamental shift of power, broadly speaking,
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我们正目睹一幕重要的权力转移
08:12
away from nations gathered around the Atlantic [seaboard]
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坦白说就是权力从大西洋沿岸国家出走
08:15
to the nations gathered around the Pacific rim.
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到太平洋沿岸
08:17
Now that begins with economic power,
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现在，首先转移的是经济
08:19
but that's the way it always begins.
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也是通常最先出现的
08:21
You already begin to see the development of foreign policies,
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你已经见到
08:24
the augmentation of military budgets
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世界上其它正在兴起的势力
08:26
occurring in the other growing powers in the world.
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发展外交政策，增加国防预算
08:29
I think actually
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我认为
08:31
this is not so much a shift from the West to the East;
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这不只是西方转移到东方
08:33
something different is happening.
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有些不一样的正出现
08:35
My guess is, for what it's worth,
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我估计是，姑且这样说
08:37
is that the United States will remain
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未来的十年，十五年
08:39
the most powerful nation on earth
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美国仍然是
08:41
for the next 10 years, 15,
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地球上最强的国家
08:44
but the context in which she holds her power
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但他掌握权力的背景
08:47
has now radically altered; it has radically changed.
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已经彻底改变
08:50
We are coming out of 50 years,
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这 50 年
08:52
most unusual years, of history
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史上最不一样的年头
08:54
in which we have had a totally mono-polar world,
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完全单极的世界
08:57
in which every compass needle
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所有政策方向
08:59
for or against
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不管赞成或反对
09:01
has to be referenced by its position to Washington --
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都以华盛顿为马首
09:04
a world bestrode by a single colossus.
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世界由一个大国带领
09:08
But that's not a usual case in history.
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这不是历史中常见的事
09:10
In fact, what's now emerging
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事实上，现在在发生的
09:12
is the much more normal case of history.
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反而是历史常见
09:14
You're beginning to see the emergence
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你开始看到
09:16
of a multi-polar world.
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多极世界的出现
09:18
Up until now,
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到目前为止
09:20
the United States has been the dominant feature of our world.
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美国担当着世界的领导角色
09:23
They will remain the most powerful nation,
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未来，他仍是最有力的强国
09:25
but they will be the most powerful nation
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而且会在不断多极化的世界中
09:27
in an increasingly multi-polar world.
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成为最强
09:29
And you begin to see the alternative centers of power building up --
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你开始见到其他权力中心冒起
09:32
in China, of course,
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中国，当然是其中之一
09:34
though my own guess is that China's ascent to greatness is not smooth.
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虽然个人认为，中国的崛起之路不会平顺
09:37
It's going to be quite grumpy
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经济自由化之后
09:39
as China begins to democratize her society
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社会开始民主化
09:41
after liberalizing her economy.
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这将引起不安
09:43
But that's a subject of a different discussion.
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但这是另一议题了
09:46
You see India, you see Brazil.
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你看印度、巴西
09:48
You see increasingly
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你看到世界不断增加
09:50
that the world now looks actually, for us Europeans,
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对我们欧洲人来说
09:53
much more like Europe in the 19th century.
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更像 19 世纪的欧洲
09:56
Europe in the 19th century:
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伟大的大不列颠外交大臣坎宁勋爵
09:58
a great British foreign secretary, Lord Canning,
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经常形容19 世纪的欧洲
10:00
used to describe it as the "European concert of powers."
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为 ”欧洲权力音乐会“
10:03
There was a balance, a five-sided balance.
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它存在一个五方的平衡
10:05
Britain always played to the balance.
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英国常在当中摆动促成它的平衡
10:08
If Paris got together with Berlin,
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如巴黎和柏林联合时
10:10
Britain got together with Vienna and Rome to provide a counterbalance.
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英国便加入另一方的维也纳和罗马
10:13
Now notice,
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现在留意
10:15
in a period which is dominated by a mono-polar world,
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当世界被单一势力支配时
10:17
you have fixed alliances --
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会出现固定的联盟
10:19
NATO, the Warsaw Pact.
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如：北约组织、华沙公约国
10:21
A fixed polarity of power
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一个固定对立的权力
10:23
means fixed alliances.
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即固定的联盟
10:25
But a multiple polarity of power
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但多股对立的权力
10:27
means shifting and changing alliances.
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却代表联盟会转移和不断改变
10:29
And that's the world we're coming into,
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这便是我们即将进入的世界
10:31
in which we will increasingly see
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在这我们将见到
10:33
that our alliances are not fixed.
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盟国不断的离合
10:35
Canning, the great British foreign secretary once said,
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大不列颠外交大臣坎宁曾说过
10:37
"Britain has a common interest,
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"英国有共同利益"
10:39
but no common allies."
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但没有同盟国
10:41
And we will see increasingly
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你将会不断见到
10:43
that even we in the West
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虽然我们身在西方
10:45
will reach out, have to reach out,
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如果我们想在世界上完成任务
10:47
beyond the cozy circle of the Atlantic powers
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终究还是要
10:49
to make alliances with others
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踏出大西洋安逸圈
10:51
if we want to get things done in the world.
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和其它国家结盟
10:54
Note, that when we went into Libya,
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当你进入利比亚，要注意
10:56
it was not good enough for the West to do it alone;
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西方国家不宜单独行动
10:58
we had to bring others in.
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我们要与其它国家一起
11:00
We had to bring, in this case, the Arab League in.
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我们需拉拢阿拉伯联盟
11:03
My guess is Iraq and Afghanistan are the last times
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我估计伊朗和阿富汗事件
11:06
when the West has tried to do it themselves,
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将是西方尝试自行解决的最后一次
11:08
and we haven't succeeded.
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但没有成功
11:10
My guess
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我估计
11:12
is that we're reaching the beginning of the end of 400 years --
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我们已到达 400 年兴盛的末落之门
11:15
I say 400 years because it's the end of the Ottoman Empire --
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我说 400 年，因为它是代表西方霸权主义
11:18
of the hegemony of Western power,
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西方制度和西方价值的
11:20
Western institutions and Western values.
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鄂图曼帝国的结束
11:24
You know, up until now, if the West got its act together,
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你知道，到目前为止，如果西方能共同行动
11:27
it could propose and dispose
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它可以在地球任一角落
11:29
in every corner of the world.
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提出和处理
11:31
But that's no longer true.
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但这事实将不会持久
11:33
Take the last financial crisis
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二次大战后
11:35
after the Second World War.
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西方联合起来
11:37
The West got together --
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布列敦森林机构、世界银行、国际货币基金组织
11:39
the Bretton Woods Institution, World Bank, International Monetary Fund --
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一起应付金融危机
11:42
the problem solved.
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把问题解决
11:44
Now we have to call in others.
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现在，我们要邀请其他国家参与
11:46
Now we have to create the G20.
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我们要建立 G20
11:48
Now we have to reach beyond the cozy circle
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我们要跨出
11:50
of our Western friends.
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西方盟友的安逸圈
11:52
Let me make a prediction for you,
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让我来为你作一个预测
11:54
which is probably even more startling.
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这可能更令你吃惊
11:57
I suspect we are now reaching the end
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我怀疑我们已经到了
12:00
of 400 years
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400 年王国的终点
12:02
when Western power was enough.
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当西方势力充分出现
12:04
People say to me, "The Chinese, of course,
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人们对我说，“中国，当然，
12:06
they'll never get themselves involved
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他们从不参与
12:08
in peace-making, multilateral peace-making around the world."
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维持和平行动，世界各地多国的维和行动
12:10
Oh yes? Why not?
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喔是吗？为什么呢？
12:12
How many Chinese troops
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今日有多少中国军队
12:14
are serving under the blue beret, serving under the blue flag,
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在蓝色贝蕾帽和蓝旗下服役
12:16
serving under the U.N. command in the world today?
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有多少在联合国司令部底下服务
12:18
3,700.
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3700
12:20
How many Americans? 11.
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美国呢？ 11
12:23
What is the largest naval contingent
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在追击索马里海盗事件中
12:25
tackling the issue of Somali pirates?
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哪个国家的海军舰队规模最大
12:28
The Chinese naval contingent.
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是中国海军舰队
12:30
Of course they are, they are a mercantilist nation.
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当然是中国，他们重视商易
12:32
They want to keep the sea lanes open.
307
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要保持海上航道畅通
12:34
Increasingly, we are going to have to do business
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愈来愈多地，我们不得不与一些
12:37
with people with whom we do not share values,
309
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没有共同价值观
12:40
but with whom, for the moment, we share common interests.
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但在那刻，有共同兴趣的人通商
12:43
It's a whole new different way
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这是一个全新的方式
12:45
of looking at the world that is now emerging.
312
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看待今日新兴的世界
12:48
And here's the third factor,
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接下来，第三个
12:50
which is totally different.
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完全不同的因素
12:53
Today in our modern world,
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今天我们的现代社会
12:55
because of the Internet,
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因为互联网
12:57
because of the kinds of things people have been talking about here,
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因为人们在这里谈论各种事情
13:00
everything is connected to everything.
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每件事都互相串联起来
13:04
We are now interdependent.
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人们互相依赖
13:06
We are now interlocked,
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互相连结
13:08
as nations, as individuals,
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作为国家，个人
13:10
in a way which has never been the case before,
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以一种前所未有的方法
13:12
never been the case before.
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连结起来
13:15
The interrelationship of nations,
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国与国之间的关系
13:17
well it's always existed.
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呀，它总是存在的
13:19
Diplomacy is about managing the interrelationship of nations.
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外交便是管理国与国之间的邦交
13:22
But now we are intimately locked together.
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但现在，我们亲密地锁在一起
13:24
You get swine flu in Mexico,
328
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你在墨西哥染上猪流感
13:26
it's a problem for Charles de Gaulle Airport
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24 小时后，它便成为
13:28
24 hours later.
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戴高乐机场的问题
13:30
Lehman Brothers goes down, the whole lot collapses.
331
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雷曼兄弟倒闭，拖垮整个经济体
13:33
There are fires in the steppes of Russia,
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俄罗斯大草原大火
13:36
food riots in Africa.
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非洲随之会出现食物骚乱
13:38
We are all now deeply, deeply, deeply interconnected.
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现在，所有人都被层层捆绑环扣
13:42
And what that means
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这代表着什么呢
13:45
is the idea of a nation state acting alone,
336
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一个国家闭关自守
13:49
not connected with others,
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不与人联系
13:51
not working with others,
338
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不与人合作
13:53
is no longer a viable proposition.
339
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不再是可行的提案
13:55
Because the actions of a nation state
340
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因为，一个国家的行动
13:58
are neither confined to itself,
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不再受限于该国本身
14:00
nor is it sufficient for the nation state itself
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或他是否有足够的能力
14:02
to control its own territory,
343
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控制他的属土
14:04
because the effects outside the nation state
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亦因为国外的影响
14:07
are now beginning to affect what happens inside them.
345
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已开始反过来影响国内
14:10
I was a young soldier
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我年轻时是个军人
14:12
in the last of the small empire wars of Britain.
347
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曾参与不列颠帝国最后一场小战事
14:16
At that time, the defense of my country
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当时，我国的国防
14:18
was about one thing and one thing only:
349
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只关注一件事，一件而已
14:21
how strong was our army, how strong was our air force,
350
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就是我们的陆军有多强，我们的空军有多强
14:24
how strong was our navy and how strong were our allies.
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我们的海军有多强和我们的联合部队有多强
14:26
That was when the enemy was outside the walls.
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那是敌人在墙外的年代
14:28
Now the enemy is inside the walls.
353
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今天，敌人己在墙内
14:31
Now if I want to talk about the defense of my country,
354
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现在，如果我要谈国防
14:33
I have to speak to the Minister of Health
355
858000
2000
我要去跟卫生部长说
14:35
because pandemic disease is a threat to my security,
356
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因为流行病威胁我们的安全
14:38
I have to speak to the Minister of Agriculture
357
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我要去跟农业部长说
14:40
because food security is a threat to my security,
358
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因为食品安全威胁我们的安全
14:42
I have to speak to the Minister of Industry
359
867000
4000
我要跟工业部长说
14:46
because the fragility of our hi-tech infrastructure
360
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因为我们脆弱的高端科技设施
14:49
is now a point of attack for our enemies --
361
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在网络战争里
14:51
as we see from cyber warfare --
362
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成为敌人的攻击点
14:53
I have to speak to the Minister of Home Affairs
363
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我要跟内政部长说
14:56
because who has entered my country,
364
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因为他们已经进入我们国内
14:58
who lives in that terraced house in that inner city
365
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住在市中心区的排屋
15:01
has a direct effect on what happens in my country --
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对国内发生的事有直接影响
15:03
as we in London saw in the 7/7 bombings.
367
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就像伦敦的七七爆炸案
15:07
It's no longer the case that the security of a country
368
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国家安全已经不再单纯是
15:10
is simply a matter for its soldiers and its ministry of defense.
369
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3000
军队和国防部长的事
15:13
It's its capacity to lock together its institutions.
370
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它把所有部门扣连在一起
15:16
And this tells you something very important.
371
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这现象告诉你一些非常重要的
15:19
It tells you that, in fact,
372
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事实，它告诉你
15:21
our governments, vertically constructed,
373
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我们政府的垂直架构
15:24
constructed on the economic model of the Industrial Revolution --
374
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是依工业革命的经济模式建构
15:26
vertical hierarchy, specialization of tasks,
375
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部门分工，上下分级，
15:29
command structures --
376
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上令下达的结构
15:31
have got the wrong structures completely.
377
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已经完全不宜
15:33
You in business know
378
918000
2000
你从商贸里知道
15:35
that the paradigm structure of our time, ladies and gentlemen,
379
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女士先生们，我们当前的结构模式，
15:37
is the network.
380
922000
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是网络
15:39
It's your capacity to network that matters,
381
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2000
在政府内外
15:41
both within your governments and externally.
382
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结合联网的能力
15:44
So here is Ashdown's third law.
383
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这便是我的阿什当第三定律
15:46
By the way, don't ask me about Ashdown's first law and second law
384
931000
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顺道说，请别问我有关阿什当第一和第二定律
15:49
because I haven't invented those yet;
385
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因为我还没草拟出来
15:51
it always sounds better if there's a third law, doesn't it?
386
936000
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第三定律，总是比较好听，对吗？
15:53
Ashdown's third law is that in the modern age,
387
938000
3000
阿什当第三定律便是现世代
15:56
where everything is connected to everything,
388
941000
2000
每件事都互相关连
15:58
the most important thing about what you can do
389
943000
3000
取决你能干什么的最重要因素是
16:01
is what you can do with others.
390
946000
2000
你究竟能联合他人干些什么
16:03
The most important bit about your structure --
391
948000
2000
不管你是一个政府，还是军团
16:05
whether you're a government, whether you're an army regiment,
392
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2000
或是一盘生意
16:07
whether you're a business --
393
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架构的重点
16:09
is your docking points, your interconnectors,
394
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便是你的接入点，你的内部连结
16:11
your capacity to network with others.
395
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你和其他人连系的能力
16:13
You understand that in industry;
396
958000
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你从工作中了解了这点
16:15
governments don't.
397
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3000
但政府却不懂
16:18
But now one final thing.
398
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最后要说一件事
16:20
If it is the case, ladies and gentlemen -- and it is --
399
965000
3000
如果事情真是这样，女士先生们
16:23
that we are now locked together
400
968000
2000
我们现在正以一种前所未有的方式
16:25
in a way that has never been quite the same before,
401
970000
2000
串连一起
16:27
then it's also the case that we share a destiny with each other.
402
972000
4000
也就是说，我们有着相同的命运
16:31
Suddenly and for the very first time,
403
976000
3000
突然的，第一次的
16:34
collective defense, the thing that has dominated us
404
979000
3000
一向认为集体防务
16:37
as the concept of securing our nations,
405
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确保国家安全的观念
16:39
is no longer enough.
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已经不再足够
16:41
It used to be the case
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过去通常
16:43
that if my tribe was more powerful than their tribe, I was safe;
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如果我的民族比别的民族强，我们是安全的
16:45
if my country was more powerful than their country, I was safe;
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如果我的国家比别的国家强，我们是安全的
16:48
my alliance, like NATO, was more powerful than their alliance, I was safe.
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我们的联盟，如北约组织，比别的联盟强，我们是安全的
16:51
It is no longer the case.
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现在已经不再是这回事
16:53
The advent of the interconnectedness
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随着彼此联系的出现
16:56
and of the weapons of mass destruction
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和大量杀伤力武器的面世
16:58
means that, increasingly,
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日益意味着
17:00
I share a destiny with my enemy.
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我和敌人面对同一处境
17:02
When I was a diplomat
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当我七零年代驻日内瓦
17:04
negotiating the disarmament treaties with the Soviet Union
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做外交官时
17:07
in Geneva in the 1970s,
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我们成功与苏联达成裁军协议
17:09
we succeeded because we understood
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因为我们明白
17:11
we shared a destiny with them.
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我们与他们在同一天空下
17:13
Collective security is not enough.
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集体安全并不足够
17:16
Peace has come to Northern Ireland
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北爱尔兰可以达至和平
17:18
because both sides realized that the zero-sum game couldn't work.
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是因为双方知道零和游戏不行
17:21
They shared a destiny with their enemies.
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他们和敌人遭遇相同
17:24
One of the great barriers to peace in the Middle East
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中东和平的其中一大障碍
17:26
is that both sides, both Israel and, I think, the Palestinians,
426
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我想是以色列和巴勒斯坦双方
17:29
do not understand
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都不明白
17:31
that they share a collective destiny.
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他们面对着同一的命运
17:34
And so suddenly, ladies and gentlemen,
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女士先生们，非常突然地
17:36
what has been the proposition
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无论是有远见的智者或敏感细腻的诗人
17:38
of visionaries and poets down the ages
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他们都建议
17:41
becomes something we have to take seriously
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我们必须认真
17:43
as a matter of public policy.
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视之为公共政策问题
17:45
I started with a poem, I'll end with one.
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我以一首诗开始，亦将会以一首诗结束
17:48
The great poem of John Donne's.
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约翰.多恩的伟大诗篇
17:51
"Send not for whom the bell tolls."
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诗题是《没有人能独存》
17:55
The poem is called "No Man is an Island."
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诗是这样写的
17:57
And it goes:
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钟鸣知为谁
17:59
"Every man's death affected me,
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每个人的离去，都影响着
18:02
for I am involved in mankind,
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同为人的我
18:04
send not to ask
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忐忑未敢问
18:06
for whom the bell tolls,
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钟究为谁鸣
18:08
it tolls for thee."
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钟为故人鸣
18:10
For John Donne, a recommendation of morality.
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约翰.多恩 - 一个道德的推崇者
18:13
For us, I think,
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我想，对我们来说
18:15
part of the equation for our survival.
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那只是生存方程式的部分
18:18
Thank you very much.
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谢谢
18:20
(Applause)
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鼓掌
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paddy Ashdown - DiplomatPaddy Ashdown is a former member of the British Parliament and a diplomat with a lifelong commitment to international cooperation.
Why you should listen
Throughout his career, Paddy Ashdown has moved across the international stage. He served as a Royal Marine and an intelligence officer in MI6, the Secret Intelligence Service of the United Kingdom, before becoming a member of Parliament. In 1988 he became the first leader of the newly formed Liberal Democrat party. After leaving Parlaiment he served as the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Paddy Ashdown | Speaker | TED.com