TEDxBrussels
Paddy Ashdown: The global power shift
帕迪●阿什當：世界權力移轉
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阿什當說，我們活在一個權力移轉的時代，而且是史無前例的移轉方式。他將透過在TEDX布魯塞爾一場引人入勝的演講，告訴我們造成移轉的三個主要因素。
Paddy Ashdown - Diplomat
Paddy Ashdown is a former member of the British Parliament and a diplomat with a lifelong commitment to international cooperation. Full bio
Paddy Ashdown is a former member of the British Parliament and a diplomat with a lifelong commitment to international cooperation. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
There's a poem written
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有一首詩這麼寫道
00:17
by a very famous English poet
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這是一位很有名的英國詩人
00:19
at the end of the 19th century.
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在十九世紀末寫的
00:21
It was said to echo in Churchill's brain
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聽說邱吉爾對這首詩也念念不忘
00:24
in the 1930s.
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在1930年那個時候
00:26
And the poem goes:
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這首詩是這麼寫的：
00:28
"On the idle hill of summer,
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「夏日的慵懶之丘上
00:30
lazy with the flow of streams,
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厭倦了小河細流
00:32
hark I hear a distant drummer,
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聽，我聽到了遠方的鼓聲
00:34
drumming like a sound in dreams,
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就像在夢裡聽到似的
00:36
far and near and low and louder on the roads of earth go by,
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遠的、近的、低沉的、高亢的，在路上迴盪著
00:39
dear to friend and food to powder,
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從愛人到朋友，從食物到麵粉
00:42
soldiers marching,
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士兵踏著步
00:44
soon to die."
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快步地走向死亡。」
00:46
Those who are interested in poetry,
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想知道這首詩名的人
00:48
the poem is "A Shropshire Lad" written by A.E. Housman.
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這是豪斯曼的詩集《舒洛普郡少年》
00:51
But what Housman understood,
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不過，豪斯曼所知道的
00:53
and you hear it in the symphonies of Nielsen too,
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你也在尼爾森交響曲中聽過
00:57
was that the long, hot, silvan summers
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就是十九世紀那漫長，炎熱，遍地林木的夏天
01:01
of stability of the 19th century
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一切都很平和的夏天
01:03
were coming to a close,
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即將走向終點
01:05
and that we were about to move
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當時，我們正要踏入
01:07
into one of those terrifying periods of history
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歷史上最令人恐懼的一段日子
01:09
when power changes.
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因為權力將要轉移
01:11
And these are always periods, ladies and gentlemen,
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各位先生女士
01:13
accompanied by turbulence,
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這些日子總是伴隨著騷動
01:16
and all too often by blood.
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偶爾也有血腥的暴力
01:18
And my message for you
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告訴你們
01:20
is that I believe we are condemned, if you like,
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我認為，我們無一倖免
01:22
to live at just one of those moments in history
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都活在歷史上的那些日子
01:25
when the gimbals upon which
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當那些已經建立的秩序
01:27
the established order of power is beginning to change
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發生劇變
01:30
and the new look of the world,
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也從新的角度來看這世界
01:32
the new powers that exist in the world,
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存在這世界上的新權力
01:35
are beginning to take form.
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正在慢慢成形
01:37
And these are -- and we see it very clearly today --
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我們也曉得是哪些新權力
01:40
nearly always highly turbulent times, highly difficult times,
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就是那些非常動亂、極為艱困的時代
01:43
and all too often very bloody times.
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偶爾也參雜著血腥暴力
01:45
By the way, it happens about once every century.
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順便一提，這種事每個世紀都會發生一次
01:48
You might argue that the last time it happened --
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你或許會辯駁我說，最後一次發生的時間
01:50
and that's what Housman felt coming and what Churchill felt too --
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也就是豪斯曼和邱吉爾覺得有事即將發生的時候
01:53
was that when power passed from the old nations,
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是權力從衰落的國家
01:56
the old powers of Europe,
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像是歐洲的舊權
01:58
across the Atlantic to the new emerging power
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越過大西洋，到了新興權力崛起的國家
02:00
of the United States of America --
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美利堅合眾國
02:02
the beginning of the American century.
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也正是美國開始強盛的世紀
02:04
And of course, into the vacuum
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當然，在那個時候
02:06
where the too-old European powers used to be
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歐洲人過時的權力
02:09
were played the two bloody catastrophes
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被人用來挑起兩場血腥的災難
02:12
of the last century --
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就在那最後一個世紀
02:14
the one in the first part and the one in the second part: the two great World Wars.
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兩場災難分別是兩次的世界大戰
02:17
Mao Zedong used to refer to them as the European civil wars,
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毛澤東說那是歐洲人的內戰
02:20
and it's probably a more accurate way of describing them.
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這麼說也真的比較貼切
02:23
Well, ladies and gentlemen,
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各位
02:25
we live at one of those times.
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我們現在也生活在那些過去的日子
02:27
But for us, I want to talk about three factors today.
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我今天就是要談三個因素
02:30
And the first of these, the first two of these,
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這三個因素中的第一個
02:33
is about a shift in power.
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就是權力移轉
02:35
And the second is about some new dimension which I want to refer to,
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第二個因素，我想要講一塊新領域
02:38
which has never quite happened in the way it's happening now.
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過去從來沒有像現在這樣發生過
02:41
But let's talk about the shifts of power that are occurring to the world.
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不過，先來談談現今世上的權力移轉吧
02:44
And what is happening today
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現在世上的權力移轉
02:46
is, in one sense, frightening
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從某種層面來看，相當震懾人心
02:48
because it's never happened before.
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因為過去從沒發生過
02:51
We have seen lateral shifts of power --
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我們曾見過幾次橫向的權力移轉
02:53
the power of Greece passed to Rome
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像是希臘轉到羅馬
02:56
and the power shifts that occurred
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還有發生在歐洲社會的
02:58
during the European civilizations --
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權力移轉
03:01
but we are seeing something slightly different.
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但現在發生的權力移轉，有些微的不同
03:03
For power is not just moving laterally
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因為權力不只是國與國之間的
03:05
from nation to nation.
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橫向移轉
03:07
It's also moving vertically.
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也有直向移轉
03:09
What's happening today is that the power that was encased,
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現今所存在的權力，受到責任的牽制
03:12
held to accountability, held to the rule of law,
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也受到法律的牽制
03:15
within the institution of the nation state
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越來越多的民族國家的機構
03:18
has now migrated in very large measure onto the global stage.
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開始浮上國際檯面
03:21
The globalization of power --
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全球化的權力
03:23
we talk about the globalization of markets,
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雖然我們說是全球化市場
03:25
but actually it's the globalization of real power.
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但事實上，卻是全球化權力
03:29
And where, at the nation state level
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從民族國家的角度來看
03:31
that power is held to accountability
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受到責任、法律
03:33
subject to the rule of law,
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所牽制的權力
03:35
on the international stage it is not.
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在國際舞台上則否
03:38
The international stage and the global stage where power now resides:
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當今存在於國際舞台上的權力有
03:41
the power of the Internet, the power of the satellite broadcasters,
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網路的權力，衛星廣播的權力
03:44
the power of the money changers --
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貨幣兌換的權力
03:47
this vast money-go-round
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兌換大筆金錢
03:49
that circulates now 32 times the amount of money necessary
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數目是過去財政所需的
03:53
for the trade it's supposed to be there to finance --
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三十二倍
03:56
the money changers, if you like,
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負責貨幣兌換的人
03:58
the financial speculators
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或是叫他們金融投機客
04:00
that have brought us all to our knees quite recently,
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他們最近確實讓些活動停止下來
04:03
the power of the multinational corporations
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多國企業所擁有的權力
04:05
now developing budgets
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正在發展預算
04:08
often bigger than medium-sized countries.
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有的預算數目比許多中型國家還要大筆
04:10
These live in a global space
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那些人住在一個全球化的空間
04:12
which is largely unregulated,
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幾乎沒有人來管
04:14
not subject to the rule of law,
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也沒有法律的牽制
04:17
and in which people may act free of constraint.
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人們想做什麼就做什麼
04:19
Now that suits the powerful
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到目前為止
04:22
up to a moment.
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那些都是強權人士想要的
04:24
It's always suitable for those who have the most power
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那些情況，總是適合掌有大多數權力的人
04:27
to operate in spaces without constraint,
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他們不受限制的束縛
04:30
but the lesson of history is that, sooner or later,
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然而，那些無人管制的地方
04:33
unregulated space --
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歷史給他們的教訓
04:35
space not subject to the rule of law --
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那些不受法律牽制的地方
04:37
becomes populated, not just by the things you wanted --
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人口會變多，也有你樂見的情
04:40
international trade, the Internet, etc. --
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像是國際貿易、網路‧‧‧等等
04:42
but also by the things you don't want --
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當然，也有一些你不願看到的
04:44
international criminality, international terrorism.
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像是國際犯罪、跨國恐怖組織
04:47
The revelation of 9/11
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從911就可以知道
04:49
is that even if you are the most powerful nation on earth,
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就算你住在世界上最強勢的國家
04:54
nevertheless,
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儘管如此
04:57
those who inhabit that space can attack you
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那些空間的人還是可以攻擊你
04:59
even in your most iconic of cities
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甚至在九月的一個早晨中
05:01
one bright September morning.
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攻擊你國家最具代表性的象徵
05:03
It's said that something like 60 percent
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聽說四百萬塊中
05:05
of the four million dollars that was taken to fund 9/11
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大約有百分之六十拿去資助911恐怖攻擊
05:08
actually passed through the institutions of the Twin Towers
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那次恐怖攻擊的飛機穿透雙子星大樓
05:11
which 9/11 destroyed.
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那也是911摧毀的建築
05:13
You see, our enemies also use this space --
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瞧，我們的敵人用這樣的空間
05:15
the space of mass travel, the Internet, satellite broadcasters --
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涵蓋如此多人的旅遊、網路、衛星廣播的空間
05:18
to be able to get around their poison,
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來達成他們的恐怖理念
05:21
which is about destroying our systems and our ways.
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也就是雖毀我們的組織系統
05:24
Sooner or later,
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早晚
05:26
sooner or later,
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早晚都會發生的
05:28
the rule of history
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歷史告訴我們
05:30
is that where power goes
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無論權力到哪裡
05:32
governance must follow.
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統治者就得跟著權力走
05:35
And if it is therefore the case, as I believe it is,
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而我相信也是因為如此
05:37
that one of the phenomenon of our time
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成就了現今社會
05:39
is the globalization of power,
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權力全球化的現象
05:41
then it follows that one of the challenges of our time
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我們這世代所面對的挑戰
05:44
is to bring governance to the global space.
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就是把統治者帶上國際舞台
05:47
And I believe that the decades ahead of us now
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我覺得在往後的幾十年
05:50
will be to a greater or lesser extent turbulent
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會有些騷動，程度或大或小
05:54
the more or less we are able to achieve that aim:
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不管怎麼樣，我們有能力達到那目標
05:57
to bring governance to the global space.
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把統治者帶上國際舞台
05:59
Now notice, I'm not talking about government.
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注意，我不是在討論統治者
06:01
I'm not talking about setting up
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也不是討論該如何建立
06:03
some global democratic institution.
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什麼全球化民主機構
06:06
My own view, by the way, ladies and gentlemen,
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對了各位，順便一提
06:08
is that this is unlikely to be done
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我覺得建立再多像是聯合國這類的機構
06:10
by spawning more U.N. institutions.
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對這件事情並不會有什麼幫助
06:12
If we didn't have the U.N., we'd have to invent it.
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我們要是沒有聯合國，我們就生一個出來就好了
06:14
The world needs an international forum.
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這世界需要的是一個國際論壇
06:16
It needs a means by which you can legitimize international action.
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藉由國際論壇，國際行動因而得以合法化
06:20
But when it comes to governance of the global space,
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但是，一談到國際舞台該由誰來統治
06:22
my guess is this won't happen
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我覺得再多的聯合國
06:25
through the creation of more U.N. institutions.
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都沒有辦法解決這問題
06:27
It will actually happen by the powerful coming together
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當強權聚在一起時，這個問題就會產生
06:30
and making treaty-based systems,
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他們因而建立用合約作為基礎的一套系統
06:32
treaty-based agreements,
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或是協定
06:34
to govern that global space.
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來統管這個國際舞台
06:36
And if you look, you can see them happening, already beginning to emerge.
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要是你仔細點看，你會發現這類的事情正慢慢發生
06:39
The World Trade Organization: treaty-based organization,
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世界貿易組織，就是個合約為底的組織
06:42
entirely treaty-based,
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完全用合約來統治
06:44
and yet, powerful enough to hold even the most powerful, the United States,
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這些合約強勢到能夠控制當今最強的國家，像是美國
06:47
to account if necessary.
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必要的話，甚至可以摧毀美國
06:49
Kyoto: the beginnings of struggling to create
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京都議定書：努力奮鬥
06:51
a treaty-based organization.
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去制定了此一合約為底的組織
06:53
The G20:
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二十國集團
06:55
we know now that we have to put together an institution
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現在，我們知道得組一個
06:57
which is capable of bringing governance
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能夠把統治權帶到金融空間的機構
06:59
to that financial space for financial speculation.
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為了那些金融活動
07:02
And that's what the G20 is, a treaty-based institution.
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這就是二十國集團因而建立的原因
07:05
Now there's a problem there,
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現在有個問題了
07:07
and we'll come back to it in a minute,
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我等一下會回到剛剛講的地方
07:09
which is that if you bring the most powerful together
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就是你把強權給聚在一塊
07:12
to make the rules in treaty-based institutions,
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要他們在綁合約的機構訂定規則
07:14
to fill that governance space,
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好填補統治權這一個空缺
07:17
then what happens to the weak who are left out?
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我要說的問題，是那些沒有參與的弱國怎麼辦？
07:20
And that's a big problem,
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這是一個嚴重的問題
07:22
and we'll return to it in just a second.
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我很快會回到這問題上
07:24
So there's my first message,
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所以我首先要告訴你們
07:26
that if you are to pass through these turbulent times
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如果你正經歷這些騷動
07:29
more or less turbulently,
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無論騷動程度大小
07:32
then our success in doing that
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如果想把事情給做好
07:34
will in large measure depend on our capacity
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關鍵在於我們把公正的統治權
07:36
to bring sensible governance
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帶上國際舞台
07:38
to the global space.
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的能力
07:40
And watch that beginning to happen.
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以及是否注意到事情已發生
07:43
My second point is,
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接著，我要說的第二點
07:45
and I know I don't have to talk to an audience like this
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我知道和觀眾談這件事時
07:47
about such a thing,
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我不必這樣說話
07:49
but power is not just shifting vertically,
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然而，權力不只是直向移轉
07:52
it's also shifting horizontally.
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權力也會橫向移轉
07:54
You might argue that the story, the history of civilizations,
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你或許會反駁我說，從文明社會的歷史來看
07:57
has been civilizations gathered around seas --
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文明社會都聚集在海洋四周
08:00
with the first ones around the Mediterranean,
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最先到達的，就在地中海
08:03
the more recent ones in the ascendents of Western power around the Atlantic.
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之後到達的西方後裔，就聚在大西洋
08:07
Well it seems to me
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但就我看來，廣義而言
08:09
that we're now seeing a fundamental shift of power, broadly speaking,
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我們所看到的只是權力移轉的基本面
08:12
away from nations gathered around the Atlantic [seaboard]
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至不過是那些聚集在大西洋岸邊的民族
08:15
to the nations gathered around the Pacific rim.
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搬到太平洋岸邊而已
08:17
Now that begins with economic power,
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然而，現在卻有了經濟權
08:19
but that's the way it always begins.
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經濟權就是這樣開始的
08:21
You already begin to see the development of foreign policies,
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你會看到世界上漸漸茁壯的國家
08:24
the augmentation of military budgets
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他們的外交開始發展
08:26
occurring in the other growing powers in the world.
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軍事預算也增加
08:29
I think actually
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然而，我覺得
08:31
this is not so much a shift from the West to the East;
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權力並非只是從西方移轉到東方
08:33
something different is happening.
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反而有些不同
08:35
My guess is, for what it's worth,
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我個人的猜測
08:37
is that the United States will remain
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無論美國是否保持在
08:39
the most powerful nation on earth
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全球最強的國家
08:41
for the next 10 years, 15,
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在接下來的十年，十五年
08:44
but the context in which she holds her power
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美國所身處的這個環境
08:47
has now radically altered; it has radically changed.
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已經徹徹底底的改變了
08:50
We are coming out of 50 years,
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過去這五十年
08:52
most unusual years, of history
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是由史以來最不尋常的五十年
08:54
in which we have had a totally mono-polar world,
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過去我們在世界上只有一個強權國家
08:57
in which every compass needle
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其餘的國家
08:59
for or against
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無論認同與否
09:01
has to be referenced by its position to Washington --
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都必須朝向那國家的所在地，華盛頓
09:04
a world bestrode by a single colossus.
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這個世界僅由一個強國來統治
09:08
But that's not a usual case in history.
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然而這在歷史上卻不常見
09:10
In fact, what's now emerging
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事實上，現在所發生的事
09:12
is the much more normal case of history.
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反倒較常在歷史上看過
09:14
You're beginning to see the emergence
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你將會看到這世界上，有許多強國
09:16
of a multi-polar world.
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開始崛起
09:18
Up until now,
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目前為止
09:20
the United States has been the dominant feature of our world.
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美國還是這世界的主導角色
09:23
They will remain the most powerful nation,
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他們在未來也會是最強權的國家
09:25
but they will be the most powerful nation
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然而，這世界上卻會有越來越多的強國
09:27
in an increasingly multi-polar world.
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美國在這所扮演的強權角色，就顯得有趣了
09:29
And you begin to see the alternative centers of power building up --
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你將會看到其他的強權國家建立起來
09:32
in China, of course,
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像是中國
09:34
though my own guess is that China's ascent to greatness is not smooth.
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雖然我覺得中國要成為強權，並不容易
09:37
It's going to be quite grumpy
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相反地，是有些困難
09:39
as China begins to democratize her society
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因為中國在自由經濟後
09:41
after liberalizing her economy.
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將他們的社會民主化
09:43
But that's a subject of a different discussion.
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不過，這又是另一個主題了
09:46
You see India, you see Brazil.
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你會看到印度、巴西
09:48
You see increasingly
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事實上，對我們歐洲人而言
09:50
that the world now looks actually, for us Europeans,
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這世界看起來越來越像
09:53
much more like Europe in the 19th century.
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十九世紀的歐洲
09:56
Europe in the 19th century:
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當時的歐洲
09:58
a great British foreign secretary, Lord Canning,
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坎寧閣下，也就是英國的外交大臣
10:00
used to describe it as the "European concert of powers."
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將歐洲描述成「歐洲人的權力協調」
10:03
There was a balance, a five-sided balance.
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當時是五個國家相互制衡
10:05
Britain always played to the balance.
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英國也利用著這樣的平衡
10:08
If Paris got together with Berlin,
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舉例來說，若巴黎和柏林合作
10:10
Britain got together with Vienna and Rome to provide a counterbalance.
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英國就和維也納、羅馬合作，來抗衡巴黎和柏林
10:13
Now notice,
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你瞧
10:15
in a period which is dominated by a mono-polar world,
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這個世界如果只由單一強國統治
10:17
you have fixed alliances --
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會有相互合作的同盟國出現
10:19
NATO, the Warsaw Pact.
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像是北約組織、華約組織
10:21
A fixed polarity of power
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把兩方不同的權力組織起來
10:23
means fixed alliances.
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就是相互合作的同盟國
10:25
But a multiple polarity of power
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但是，如果有三方不同的權力
10:27
means shifting and changing alliances.
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這便意味著同盟國的改變
10:29
And that's the world we're coming into,
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也就是我們即將跨入的世界
10:31
in which we will increasingly see
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我們會看到越來越多的同盟國
10:33
that our alliances are not fixed.
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其成員並不是固定不變的
10:35
Canning, the great British foreign secretary once said,
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傑出的英國外交大臣坎寧曾說過
10:37
"Britain has a common interest,
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「英國和大家有相同的利益
10:39
but no common allies."
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卻沒有相同的盟國。」
10:41
And we will see increasingly
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縱使我們身處西方
10:43
that even we in the West
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我們終究還是
10:45
will reach out, have to reach out,
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得踏出我們大西洋的舒適圈
10:47
beyond the cozy circle of the Atlantic powers
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去和他國交涉
10:49
to make alliances with others
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和他國結盟
10:51
if we want to get things done in the world.
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否則我們在這世上會一事無成
10:54
Note, that when we went into Libya,
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像是我們要進入利比亞
10:56
it was not good enough for the West to do it alone;
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我們若要隻身進入的話，就顯得不夠聰明
10:58
we had to bring others in.
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我們得找其他人
11:00
We had to bring, in this case, the Arab League in.
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像是去找阿拉伯聯盟
11:03
My guess is Iraq and Afghanistan are the last times
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我們最近幾次試著靠自己的力量
11:06
when the West has tried to do it themselves,
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進入伊拉克、阿富汗
11:08
and we haven't succeeded.
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不過並沒有成功
11:10
My guess
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我個人推測
11:12
is that we're reaching the beginning of the end of 400 years --
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過去四百年的鄂圖曼帝國已漸漸步入終點
11:15
I say 400 years because it's the end of the Ottoman Empire --
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鄂圖曼帝國的結束意味著
11:18
of the hegemony of Western power,
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西方國家的霸權結束了
11:20
Western institutions and Western values.
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西方的強權機構、西方的價值觀，也都結束了
11:24
You know, up until now, if the West got its act together,
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你知道嗎？在過去，如果西方國家能更有組織點
11:27
it could propose and dispose
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他們是有辦法控管
11:29
in every corner of the world.
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世上的每一個角落
11:31
But that's no longer true.
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不過，為時已晚
11:33
Take the last financial crisis
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就拿最近二次大戰後
11:35
after the Second World War.
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發生的經濟恐慌當作例子
11:37
The West got together --
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如果西方國家合作點
11:39
the Bretton Woods Institution, World Bank, International Monetary Fund --
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像是，布雷頓森林機構、世界銀行、國際貨幣基金組織...等組織
11:42
the problem solved.
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問題就能解決
11:44
Now we have to call in others.
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現在，我們得靠別人的幫忙
11:46
Now we have to create the G20.
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像是創立了二十國集團
11:48
Now we have to reach beyond the cozy circle
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我們還得跨出我們在西方的
11:50
of our Western friends.
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舒適圈
11:52
Let me make a prediction for you,
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我個人預測
11:54
which is probably even more startling.
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這答案可能會讓你嚇一跳
11:57
I suspect we are now reaching the end
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我認為我們正接近過去四百年
12:00
of 400 years
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鄂圖曼帝國的終點
12:02
when Western power was enough.
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當時，西方的權力足以控制世界
12:04
People say to me, "The Chinese, of course,
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有人對我說
12:06
they'll never get themselves involved
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「中國絕對不會參與
12:08
in peace-making, multilateral peace-making around the world."
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什麼在世界上建立和平的活動。」
12:10
Oh yes? Why not?
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這是為什麼呢？
12:12
How many Chinese troops
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你知道世界上有多少中國軍隊
12:14
are serving under the blue beret, serving under the blue flag,
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戴著藍色貝雷帽、揮舞著藍色旗幟
12:16
serving under the U.N. command in the world today?
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在聯合國的指令下做事呢？
12:18
3,700.
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三千七百隊
12:20
How many Americans? 11.
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美國呢？十一隊
12:23
What is the largest naval contingent
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世界上對付索馬利亞海盜
12:25
tackling the issue of Somali pirates?
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最大的海軍艦隊在哪裡？
12:28
The Chinese naval contingent.
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在中國
12:30
Of course they are, they are a mercantilist nation.
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你們會覺得理所當然，因為中國是重商主義者
12:32
They want to keep the sea lanes open.
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他們想要維持航道的開放
12:34
Increasingly, we are going to have to do business
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那些和我們沒有相同利益的人
12:37
with people with whom we do not share values,
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我們得越來越常和他們經商
12:40
but with whom, for the moment, we share common interests.
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不過，現在誰和我們有共同的利益呢？
12:43
It's a whole new different way
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這是個全新的角度
12:45
of looking at the world that is now emerging.
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來看這個正在改變的世界
12:48
And here's the third factor,
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接下來是第三個因素
12:50
which is totally different.
314
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和先前的完全不同
12:53
Today in our modern world,
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現在這個世界之所以這麼進步
12:55
because of the Internet,
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是因為網路
12:57
because of the kinds of things people have been talking about here,
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因為人們可以談論各式各樣的話題
13:00
everything is connected to everything.
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每一件事都息息相關
13:04
We are now interdependent.
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我們彼此也就相互依賴
13:06
We are now interlocked,
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相互連結
13:08
as nations, as individuals,
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無論是國家，還是個人
13:10
in a way which has never been the case before,
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這可是在以前都沒看過
13:12
never been the case before.
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沒有發生過
13:15
The interrelationship of nations,
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國與國之間的相關關係
13:17
well it's always existed.
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一直都存在
13:19
Diplomacy is about managing the interrelationship of nations.
326
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外交就是管理國家之間的相互關係
13:22
But now we are intimately locked together.
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而我們現在比以前還更加緊密的連結
13:24
You get swine flu in Mexico,
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舉例來說，你在墨西哥得到禽流感
13:26
it's a problem for Charles de Gaulle Airport
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二十四小時後，法國戴高樂機場
13:28
24 hours later.
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就得處理這個問題
13:30
Lehman Brothers goes down, the whole lot collapses.
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雷曼兄弟倒閉，全球經濟也被拖垮
13:33
There are fires in the steppes of Russia,
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俄羅斯的大草原發生火災
13:36
food riots in Africa.
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非洲因為食物而發生暴動
13:38
We are all now deeply, deeply, deeply interconnected.
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我們彼此間都有深深的關聯
13:42
And what that means
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這也就是說
13:45
is the idea of a nation state acting alone,
336
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一個國家想要獨立獨行
13:49
not connected with others,
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不和其他人來往
13:51
not working with others,
338
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不和其他人合作
13:53
is no longer a viable proposition.
339
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這已經不是個實際的想法
13:55
Because the actions of a nation state
340
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要是一個國家這麼做
13:58
are neither confined to itself,
341
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這不僅是鎖國
14:00
nor is it sufficient for the nation state itself
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這國家也沒有辦法
14:02
to control its own territory,
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去掌管自己的國土
14:04
because the effects outside the nation state
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現在，這樣的一個國家
14:07
are now beginning to affect what happens inside them.
345
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已經開始受到國外的影響了
14:10
I was a young soldier
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我年輕的時候
14:12
in the last of the small empire wars of Britain.
347
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曾在大英帝國戰爭時當過兵
14:16
At that time, the defense of my country
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那時，我的國家要讓大家知道的
14:18
was about one thing and one thing only:
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就只是這幾件事而已
14:21
how strong was our army, how strong was our air force,
350
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我們的軍隊多強，我們的空軍多厲害
14:24
how strong was our navy and how strong were our allies.
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我們的艦隊多強，我們同盟國多厲害
14:26
That was when the enemy was outside the walls.
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敵人都在城牆外
14:28
Now the enemy is inside the walls.
353
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3000
現在敵人卻在城牆內
14:31
Now if I want to talk about the defense of my country,
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現在，若問我，我的國家想向大家說什麼
14:33
I have to speak to the Minister of Health
355
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我得和衛生署談談
14:35
because pandemic disease is a threat to my security,
356
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因為傳染疾病對我們的健康造成威脅
14:38
I have to speak to the Minister of Agriculture
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我得和農業局談談
14:40
because food security is a threat to my security,
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因為食物安全對我們的飲食造成威脅
14:42
I have to speak to the Minister of Industry
359
867000
4000
我得和工業部談談
14:46
because the fragility of our hi-tech infrastructure
360
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因為高科技公共設施很脆弱
14:49
is now a point of attack for our enemies --
361
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容易成為我們敵人的攻擊目標
14:51
as we see from cyber warfare --
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正如我們從網路戰爭上所看到的
14:53
I have to speak to the Minister of Home Affairs
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我得和內政部談談
14:56
because who has entered my country,
364
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因為那些已經進入我們國家的人
14:58
who lives in that terraced house in that inner city
365
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住在我們的都市，我們的房子的人
15:01
has a direct effect on what happens in my country --
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對發生在我們國家的事，都有直接的影響
15:03
as we in London saw in the 7/7 bombings.
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就像倫敦七七驚爆一樣
15:07
It's no longer the case that the security of a country
368
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一個國家的安全
15:10
is simply a matter for its soldiers and its ministry of defense.
369
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不再只和軍人和國防有關
15:13
It's its capacity to lock together its institutions.
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也和一個國家整合自身機構的能力有關
15:16
And this tells you something very important.
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從這裡你就可以看出一件很重要的事情
15:19
It tells you that, in fact,
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事實上
15:21
our governments, vertically constructed,
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我們垂直架構的政府
15:24
constructed on the economic model of the Industrial Revolution --
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建立在工業革命那時的經濟模式
15:26
vertical hierarchy, specialization of tasks,
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縱向層級制度，分工作業
15:29
command structures --
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由上對下發號施令
15:31
have got the wrong structures completely.
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這套系統整個就是錯的
15:33
You in business know
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在座的各位，如果你從事經商
15:35
that the paradigm structure of our time, ladies and gentlemen,
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你會知道我們現階段的架構
15:37
is the network.
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就是連絡網
15:39
It's your capacity to network that matters,
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組織聯絡網的能力很重要
15:41
both within your governments and externally.
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無論是對政府內部還是外部的聯絡網
15:44
So here is Ashdown's third law.
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而這就是我的第三個法則
15:46
By the way, don't ask me about Ashdown's first law and second law
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對了，別問我第一還第二個法則是什麼
15:49
because I haven't invented those yet;
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因為我還沒發明出來
15:51
it always sounds better if there's a third law, doesn't it?
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不過，第三法則總是比較好聽，對吧？
15:53
Ashdown's third law is that in the modern age,
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我的第三法則就是
15:56
where everything is connected to everything,
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科技進步的今日，所有事情都有關連
15:58
the most important thing about what you can do
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最重要的是，就是你能
16:01
is what you can do with others.
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和別人做什麼事情
16:03
The most important bit about your structure --
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在你這個人當中
16:05
whether you're a government, whether you're an army regiment,
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無論你是政府人員，還是軍人
16:07
whether you're a business --
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或者是商人
16:09
is your docking points, your interconnectors,
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重要的是你和別人的連接點
16:11
your capacity to network with others.
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你和別人相處的能力
16:13
You understand that in industry;
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在工業中，你能瞭解此一重要性
16:15
governments don't.
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政府卻不懂
16:18
But now one final thing.
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現在，最後一件事
16:20
If it is the case, ladies and gentlemen -- and it is --
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如果
16:23
that we are now locked together
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如果我們彼此連結
16:25
in a way that has never been quite the same before,
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而過去從來沒有發生過
16:27
then it's also the case that we share a destiny with each other.
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這就是說，我們和彼此有著相同的命運
16:31
Suddenly and for the very first time,
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這很突然，還是第一次
16:34
collective defense, the thing that has dominated us
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我們國家主要的安全理念
16:37
as the concept of securing our nations,
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如果只靠集合型防禦
16:39
is no longer enough.
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已經不夠了
16:41
It used to be the case
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過去是這樣
16:43
that if my tribe was more powerful than their tribe, I was safe;
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如果我的族群比你的強，我就安全了
16:45
if my country was more powerful than their country, I was safe;
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如果我的國家比你的強，我就安全了
16:48
my alliance, like NATO, was more powerful than their alliance, I was safe.
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我的盟國，像是北約組織，如果比其他人還強，我就安全了
16:51
It is no longer the case.
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然而，現在卻不是這樣
16:53
The advent of the interconnectedness
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我們彼此之間越來越有關係
16:56
and of the weapons of mass destruction
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強大的毀滅性武器問世
16:58
means that, increasingly,
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這都意味著
17:00
I share a destiny with my enemy.
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我們和敵人面對著同樣的命運
17:02
When I was a diplomat
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一九七零年，我還是外交官時
17:04
negotiating the disarmament treaties with the Soviet Union
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我在日內瓦和蘇聯爭論
17:07
in Geneva in the 1970s,
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要求其削減武器
17:09
we succeeded because we understood
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當時，我們兩方都達成共識
17:11
we shared a destiny with them.
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因為我們知道我們共享命運
17:13
Collective security is not enough.
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集合型安全是不夠的
17:16
Peace has come to Northern Ireland
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和平也來到北愛爾蘭
17:18
because both sides realized that the zero-sum game couldn't work.
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因為雙方了解，零和遊戲是沒有用的
17:21
They shared a destiny with their enemies.
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他們和敵人有著相同的命運
17:24
One of the great barriers to peace in the Middle East
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阻礙著中東和平的其中一項要素是
17:26
is that both sides, both Israel and, I think, the Palestinians,
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以色列及巴勒斯坦
17:29
do not understand
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他們雙方都不瞭解
17:31
that they share a collective destiny.
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他們和對方有著同樣的命運
17:34
And so suddenly, ladies and gentlemen,
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各位，從以前到現在
17:36
what has been the proposition
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無論是有夢想的人
17:38
of visionaries and poets down the ages
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還是詩人所提出的建言
17:41
becomes something we have to take seriously
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都成了我們得重視的
17:43
as a matter of public policy.
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公共政策
17:45
I started with a poem, I'll end with one.
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我用首詩作為開頭，現在也用一首來結尾
17:48
The great poem of John Donne's.
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這是多恩的偉大詩作
17:51
"Send not for whom the bell tolls."
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「莫問鐘聲為誰響」
17:55
The poem is called "No Man is an Island."
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這首詩叫做「沒有人是孤島」
17:57
And it goes:
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多恩如此寫道
17:59
"Every man's death affected me,
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「每一個人逝去，都影響著我
18:02
for I am involved in mankind,
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因我亦同生而為人
18:04
send not to ask
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莫問
18:06
for whom the bell tolls,
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鐘聲為誰響
18:08
it tolls for thee."
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它為你我。」
18:10
For John Donne, a recommendation of morality.
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多恩讚頌道德
18:13
For us, I think,
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而我覺得
18:15
part of the equation for our survival.
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每個人的存在都是等式中的一部分
18:18
Thank you very much.
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謝謝
18:20
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paddy Ashdown - DiplomatPaddy Ashdown is a former member of the British Parliament and a diplomat with a lifelong commitment to international cooperation.
Why you should listen
Throughout his career, Paddy Ashdown has moved across the international stage. He served as a Royal Marine and an intelligence officer in MI6, the Secret Intelligence Service of the United Kingdom, before becoming a member of Parliament. In 1988 he became the first leader of the newly formed Liberal Democrat party. After leaving Parlaiment he served as the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Paddy Ashdown | Speaker | TED.com