TED2013
Danny Hillis: The Internet could crash. We need a Plan B
丹尼 希利斯: 互联网可能会崩溃。我们需要B计划。
Filmed:
Readability: 3.8
1,375,608 views
在1970年代和1980年代，互联网充满了慷慨的精神，那时互联网用户数量少，而且相距遥远。但如今，网络无处不在，它将数以十亿的用户、机器和重要的基础设施紧紧的联结在一起。让让我们非常容易受到网络攻击或崩溃。互联网先锋丹尼 希利斯认为互联网不是为这样的规模设计的，为我们吹响了设计B计划的号角：一个在互联网失效或者崩溃时可以运作的并行系统。
Danny Hillis - Computer theorist
Inventor, scientist, author, engineer -- over his broad career, Danny Hillis has turned his ever-searching brain on an array of subjects, with surprising results. Full bio
Inventor, scientist, author, engineer -- over his broad career, Danny Hillis has turned his ever-searching brain on an array of subjects, with surprising results. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
So, this book that I have in my hand
0
603
3066
呃，我手里的这本书
00:19
is a directory of everybody who had an email address
1
3669
3934
是1982年所有拥有电邮地址的人的通讯录。
00:23
in 1982. (Laughter)
2
7603
3519
（笑声）
00:27
Actually, it's deceptively large.
3
11122
3685
它看起来很大，其实不然。
00:30
There's actually only about 20 people on each page,
4
14807
3437
这本通讯录实际上每页只记录了大约20个人，
00:34
because we have the name, address
5
18244
1890
因为我们每一个人都有自己的姓名，
00:36
and telephone number of every single person.
6
20134
3093
地址和电话号码。
00:39
And, in fact, everybody's listed twice,
7
23227
2183
同时，每个人的信息都出现了两次，
00:41
because it's sorted once by name and once by email address.
8
25410
4558
因为有两种排序方式：根据名字和根据电子邮件地址。
00:45
Obviously a very small community.
9
29968
2901
当然这是个很小的社区。
00:48
There were only two other Dannys on the Internet then.
10
32869
3431
当时，互联网上只有另外两个名字也叫丹尼的人。
00:52
I knew them both.
11
36300
1600
他们两个我都认识。
00:53
We didn't all know each other,
12
37900
1756
虽然我们彼此之间并不全都认识，
00:55
but we all kind of trusted each other,
13
39656
3113
但是我们互相信任，
00:58
and that basic feeling of trust
14
42769
3798
这种基本的信任感
01:02
permeated the whole network,
15
46567
2587
充满了整个网络，
01:05
and there was a real sense that
16
49154
2357
并且大家可以感觉到
01:07
we could depend on each other to do things.
17
51511
3006
我们能彼此信赖的去完成一些事情。
01:10
So just to give you an idea of the level of trust in this community,
18
54517
3575
因此，为了让你们能体会到当时该社区的那种信任程度，
01:13
let me tell you what it was like
19
58092
1625
下面让我来告诉你在早期
01:15
to register a domain name in the early days.
20
59717
4105
是如何注册域名的。
01:19
Now, it just so happened that I got to register
21
63822
2630
现在，假象我我刚注册了
01:22
the third domain name on the Internet.
22
66452
2460
我的第三个互联网域名。
01:24
So I could have anything I wanted
23
68912
1648
于是我可以起任何我想要的名字作为域名，
01:26
other than bbn.com and symbolics.com.
24
70560
4445
除了"bbn.com"和"symbolics.com"之外。
01:30
So I picked think.com, but then I thought,
25
75005
3414
于是我注册了"think.com"，但是我又想，
01:34
you know, there's a lot of really interesting names out there.
26
78419
2986
除此之外还有很多有趣的域名。
01:37
Maybe I should register a few extras just in case.
27
81405
4209
也许我应该多注册几个以备不时之需。
01:41
And then I thought, "Nah, that wouldn't be very nice."
28
85614
3284
我又想：“呐，这样不太好吧。”
01:44
(Laughter)
29
88898
5695
(笑声)
01:50
That attitude of only taking what you need
30
94593
3629
在那时，这种只取己需的态度
01:54
was really what everybody had on the network in those days,
31
98222
4044
在网络上几乎人人拥有，
01:58
and in fact, it wasn't just the people on the network,
32
102266
3297
而且事实上，不仅仅是使用网络的人有这种态度
02:01
but it was actually kind of built into the protocols
33
105563
2720
这种态度也植根于
02:04
of the Internet itself.
34
108283
1944
互联网协议自身。
02:06
So the basic idea of I.P., or Internet protocol,
35
110227
3859
所以，I.P.,或者互联网协议的基本思想，
02:09
and the way that the -- the routing algorithm that used it,
36
114086
3729
以及路由算法用到的工作方式，
02:13
were fundamentally "from each according to their ability,
37
117815
4129
从根本上来说是“各尽其能
02:17
to each according to their need."
38
121944
2118
各取所需。”
02:19
And so, if you had some extra bandwidth,
39
124062
3013
因此，如果你有额外的带宽，
02:22
you'd deliver a message for someone.
40
127075
1443
你代别人发送信息。
02:24
If they had some extra bandwidth, they would deliver a message for you.
41
128518
2993
如果他们也有额外的带宽，他们也可以代你发送信息。
02:27
You'd kind of depend on people to do that,
42
131511
2014
你将会逐渐依靠于他人才能来完成信息的交换，
02:29
and that was the building block.
43
133525
2664
而这就是构建的基石。
02:32
It was actually interesting that such a communist principle
44
136189
2627
有趣的是，虽然这样一个共产原则
02:34
was the basis of a system developed during the Cold War
45
138816
2436
居然是国防部在冷战期间开发的一个
02:37
by the Defense Department,
46
141252
2431
系统的核心，
02:39
but it obviously worked really well,
47
143683
3070
而很明显它的效果非常好，
02:42
and we all saw what happened with the Internet.
48
146753
3443
我们已经目睹了互联网发生的一切。
02:46
It was incredibly successful.
49
150196
2272
毋庸置疑，非常的成功。
02:48
In fact, it was so successful that there's no way
50
152468
3297
实际上，互联网如此成功，以至于如今你不可能
02:51
that these days you could make a book like this.
51
155765
3588
出版这样一本通讯录了。
02:55
My rough calculation is it would be about 25 miles thick.
52
159353
6166
我粗略计算，如果这本书出版出来将会有25英尺厚。
03:01
But, of course, you couldn't do it,
53
165519
1174
当然，你也做不不出来，
03:02
because we don't know the names of all the people
54
166693
1790
因为我们不知道所有上网人的名字，
03:04
with Internet or email addresses,
55
168483
3074
或者电子邮件地址，
03:07
and even if we did know their names,
56
171557
1532
即使我们知道他们的名字，
03:08
I'm pretty sure that they would not want their name,
57
173089
2433
我确信他们也不愿意将他们的名字，
03:11
address and telephone number published to everyone.
58
175522
4296
地址和电话号码公诸于众。
03:15
So the fact is that there's a lot of bad guys on the Internet these days,
59
179818
3702
事实是当今在互联网上有很多坏人，
03:19
and so we dealt with that by making
60
183520
4171
我们的应对方法是建立一个
03:23
walled communities,
61
187691
1899
封闭的社区，
03:25
secure subnetworks, VPNs,
62
189590
4737
安全子网，虚拟私有网，
03:30
little things that aren't really the Internet
63
194327
1596
以及类似于因特网但又不是因特网的工具，
03:31
but are made out of the same building blocks,
64
195923
1971
虽然他们拥有相同的构建原理，
03:33
but we're still basically building it out of those
65
197894
2240
但是我们构建他们并不完全照搬因特网的构建基本原理，
03:36
same building blocks with those same assumptions of trust.
66
200134
4267
而是基于与因特网一样，对信任的假设。
03:40
And that means that it's vulnerable
67
204401
2722
这意味着这种网络易受到
03:43
to certain kinds of mistakes that can happen,
68
207123
2396
某种可能发生的某种错误的干扰
03:45
or certain kinds of deliberate attacks,
69
209519
1861
以及受某种蓄意的攻击，
03:47
but even the mistakes can be bad.
70
211380
3105
但是即使是错误，也会很麻烦。
03:50
So, for instance,
71
214485
2949
例如，
03:53
in all of Asia recently,
72
217434
1953
最近在亚洲的所有地区，
03:55
it was impossible to get YouTube for a little while
73
219387
3433
有一小段时间不能访问YouTube
03:58
because Pakistan made some mistakes
74
222820
2280
是因为巴基斯坦在其内部网络审查YouTube的方法上
04:01
in how it was censoring YouTube in its internal network.
75
225100
3735
犯了一些错误。
04:04
They didn't intend to screw up Asia, but they did
76
228835
3094
他们无意于在亚洲墙掉Youtube，但由于的协议工作方式，
04:07
because of the way that the protocols work.
77
231929
2904
他们确实短时间内阻断了Youtube。
04:10
Another example that may have affected many of you in this audience is,
78
234833
3224
另一个可能会影响很多在座听众的例子是，
04:13
you may remember a couple of years ago,
79
238057
2591
你可能还记得在数年前，
04:16
all the planes west of the Mississippi were grounded
80
240648
2813
密西西比州西部的所有飞机停航了，
04:19
because a single routing card in Salt Lake City
81
243461
2892
是因为盐湖城的一个路由卡
04:22
had a bug in it.
82
246353
2362
出现了问题。
04:24
Now, you don't really think
83
248715
2273
你当然不会认为
04:26
that our airplane system depends on the Internet,
84
250988
3026
飞机系统依赖于因特网，
04:29
and in some sense it doesn't.
85
254014
1006
在某种意义上它确实不依靠因特网。
04:30
I'll come back to that later.
86
255020
1616
稍后我会再谈到这一点。
04:32
But the fact is that people couldn't take off
87
256636
2250
事实是人们不能起飞，
04:34
because something was going wrong on the Internet,
88
258886
2275
是因为互联网出了某种问题，
04:37
and the router card was down.
89
261161
2575
路由卡宕机了。
04:39
And so, there are many of those things that start to happen.
90
263736
3779
许多类似的事情在不断的发生。
04:43
Now, there was an interesting thing that happened last April.
91
267515
3139
去年四月发生了一件有趣的事情。
04:46
All of a sudden,
92
270654
1526
突然，
04:48
a very large percentage of the traffic on the whole Internet,
93
272180
3332
整个互联网上相当大量的流量，
04:51
including a lot of the traffic between U.S. military installations,
94
275512
4131
包括美国军方网络的很多流量，
04:55
started getting re-routed through China.
95
279643
2768
开始通过中国改道发送。
04:58
So for a few hours, it all passed through China.
96
282411
2722
在数小时内，这些流量经由中国。
05:01
Now, China Telecom says it was just an honest mistake,
97
285133
4574
中国电信声称这并非有意为之，
05:05
and it is actually possible that it was, the way things work,
98
289707
3857
很可能确实如此，事实就是这样
05:09
but certainly somebody could make
99
293564
2035
但毫无疑问的是如果有人
05:11
a dishonest mistake of that sort if they wanted to,
100
295599
3273
蓄意这样做，那也很容易。
05:14
and it shows you how vulnerable the system is even to mistakes.
101
298872
3358
这表明在面临错误时，系统是如何脆弱。
05:18
Imagine how vulnerable the system is to deliberate attacks.
102
302230
4921
顾设想面临蓄意攻击时，系统该是多么脆弱啊。
05:23
So if somebody really wanted to attack the United States
103
307151
3398
现在，如果有人蓄意攻击美国
05:26
or Western civilization these days,
104
310549
2092
或者西方社会，
05:28
they're not going to do it with tanks.
105
312641
2189
他们不会采用坦克。
05:30
That will not succeed.
106
314830
2413
当然这样做也不会成功。
05:33
What they'll probably do is something
107
317243
2003
他们可能采取的行动
05:35
very much like the attack that happened
108
319246
3291
会非常类似于针对伊朗核设施
05:38
on the Iranian nuclear facility.
109
322537
2707
发动的攻击。
05:41
Nobody has claimed credit for that.
110
325244
2274
没有人会声称对此负责。
05:43
There was basically a factory of industrial machines.
111
327518
3507
基本上那只是一个制造工业机器的工厂。
05:46
It didn't think of itself as being on the Internet.
112
331025
2577
它自己不会认为自己在互联网上。
05:49
It thought of itself as being disconnected from the Internet,
113
333602
2587
它自己认为自己是与互联网隔离的，
05:52
but it was possible for somebody to smuggle
114
336189
1947
但是有可能有人
05:54
a USB drive in there, or something like that,
115
338136
2532
偷偷带进了一个U盘或类似U盘的东西，
05:56
and software got in there that causes the centrifuges,
116
340668
3396
和软件潜入工厂，让工厂里的离心分离机
05:59
in that case, to actually destroy themselves.
117
344064
2993
自毁。
06:02
Now that same kind of software could destroy an oil refinery
118
347057
2666
由于当今有类似的软件可以摧毁一家炼油厂，
06:05
or a pharmaceutical factory or a semiconductor plant.
119
349723
4422
制药厂，或者半导体工厂。
06:10
And so there's a lot of -- I'm sure you've read a lot in papers,
120
354145
3266
所以人们不免有许多--我相信你们在报纸上也看了很多，
06:13
about worries about cyberattacks
121
357411
2191
有关网络攻击
06:15
and defenses against those.
122
359602
2610
和对网络攻击的防御的担忧.
06:18
But the fact is, people are mostly focused on
123
362212
1980
但事实上，人们主要着眼于
06:20
defending the computers on the Internet,
124
364192
2283
联网电脑的保护，
06:22
and there's been surprisingly little attention
125
366475
2386
反而极少关注
06:24
to defending the Internet itself as a communications medium.
126
368861
4365
作为通讯介质的互联网本身的保护。
06:29
And I think we probably do need to pay
127
373226
1863
我认为我们需要更多的
06:30
some more attention to that, because it's actually kind of fragile.
128
375089
3088
关注这一点，因为互联网是脆弱的。
06:34
So actually, in the early days,
129
378177
2927
事实上，在早期，
06:37
back when it was the ARPANET,
130
381104
1724
在阿帕网年代，
06:38
there were actually times -- there was a particular time it failed completely
131
382828
3589
事实上确实有发生过一次整个网络完全宕掉了一段时间的情况，
06:42
because one single message processor
132
386417
3285
原因是某个单一信息处理器
06:45
actually got a bug in it.
133
389702
2476
有问题。
06:48
And the way the Internet works is
134
392178
2272
互联网的工作方式是
06:50
the routers are basically exchanging information
135
394450
3567
路由器交换的讯息从根本上来说
06:53
about how they can get messages to places,
136
398017
2590
是关于它们如何将信息发送到指定的位置，
06:56
and this one processor, because of a broken card,
137
400607
3898
因为一张坏卡，这个处理器
07:00
decided it could actually get a message
138
404505
2009
认为它实际上可以在负时间内
07:02
to some place in negative time.
139
406514
2688
将信息送到某地方。
07:05
So, in other words, it claimed it could deliver a message before you sent it.
140
409202
3983
换句话说，它声称它可以在接收一条信息之前就发送。
07:09
So of course, the fastest way to get a message anywhere
141
413185
3150
因此，显然，最快的接收任何地方信息的方式就是
07:12
was to send it to this guy,
142
416335
1876
将信息发给这个处理器，
07:14
who would send it back in time and get it there super early,
143
418211
3547
他会及时地送回并且超早地送达，
07:17
so every message in the Internet
144
421758
2856
因此互联网上的每条信息
07:20
started getting switched through this one node,
145
424614
3242
开始通过这个节点交换，
07:23
and of course that clogged everything up.
146
427856
1516
理所当然的会堵塞。
07:25
Everything started breaking.
147
429372
2155
一切开始中断。
07:27
The interesting thing was, though,
148
431527
2040
尽管如此，有趣的是，
07:29
that the sysadmins were able to fix it,
149
433567
1840
系统管理员可以解决这个问题，
07:31
but they had to basically turn every single thing on the Internet off.
150
435407
4782
但是基本上他们必须关掉所有的互联网。
07:36
Now, of course you couldn't do that today.
151
440189
1398
当然现在不可能这样做。
07:37
I mean, everything off, it's like
152
441587
2394
我的意思是，关掉一切，有点像
07:39
the service call you get from the cable company,
153
443981
2232
整个世界你只接得到
07:42
except for the whole world.
154
446213
3761
有线电视公司打给你的服务电话。
07:45
Now, in fact, they couldn't do it for a lot of reasons today.
155
449974
2059
现在，事实上，由于一些原因，他们不能做到这一点。
07:47
One of the reasons is a lot of their telephones
156
452033
2622
其中一个原因是他们的电话
07:50
use IP protocol and use things like Skype and so on
157
454655
2969
采用IP协议，并且使用像Skype之类的
07:53
that go through the Internet right now,
158
457624
2069
通过互联网通讯的工具，
07:55
and so in fact we're becoming dependent on it
159
459693
3282
事实上，我们越来越依赖于它，
07:58
for more and more different things,
160
462975
1792
去做越来越多不同的事情，
08:00
like when you take off from LAX,
161
464767
2938
比如，当你当你从洛杉矶起飞，
08:03
you're really not thinking you're using the Internet.
162
467705
1881
你不会认为你在使用互联网。
08:05
When you pump gas, you really don't think you're using the Internet.
163
469586
4116
当你加气时，你也不会认为你在使用互联网。
08:09
What's happening increasingly, though, is these systems
164
473702
2125
但是，渐渐发生的却是这些系统
08:11
are beginning to use the Internet.
165
475827
1867
开始逐渐使用互联网。
08:13
Most of them aren't based on the Internet yet,
166
477694
3050
大部分还不是基于互联网，
08:16
but they're starting to use the Internet for service functions,
167
480744
2536
但是他们开始使用互联网类提供服务功能，
08:19
for administrative functions,
168
483280
1905
和行政功能，
08:21
and so if you take something like the cell phone system,
169
485185
3063
因此如果你需要类似于电话系统的东西，
08:24
which is still relatively independent of the Internet for the most part,
170
488248
4320
它现在大部分仍然相对的独立于互联网，
08:28
Internet pieces are beginning to sneak into it
171
492568
2959
互联网势力正在开始以一些控制和行政
08:31
in terms of some of the control and administrative functions,
172
495527
3804
功能的方式侵入电话系统，
08:35
and it's so tempting to use these same building blocks
173
499331
2330
而且基于同样构建的网络手机系统显得是那么的诱人，
08:37
because they work so well, they're cheap,
174
501661
2264
因为他们运作良好，廉价，
08:39
they're repeated, and so on.
175
503925
1100
他们可以重复，等等。
08:40
So all of our systems, more and more,
176
505025
2772
因此我们的系统，越来越多地，
08:43
are starting to use the same technology
177
507797
1780
开始使用相同的技术
08:45
and starting to depend on this technology.
178
509577
2067
并且开始依赖于这种技术。
08:47
And so even a modern rocket ship these days
179
511644
2425
因此即使是现代装备火箭的船舰
08:49
actually uses Internet protocol to talk
180
514069
2726
如今也事实上使用互联网协议
08:52
from one end of the rocket ship to the other.
181
516795
1816
与其他的舰船联系。
08:54
That's crazy. It was never designed to do things like that.
182
518611
3186
这太疯狂了。互联网最初的设计宗旨肯定不是这个。
08:57
So we've built this system
183
521797
3117
所以我们建造了这个系统，
09:00
where we understand all the parts of it,
184
524914
3110
我们虽然了解这个系统的所有部分，
09:03
but we're using it in a very, very different way than we expected to use it,
185
528024
3698
但是我们以一种不同于预期的非常不同的方式在使用它，
09:07
and it's gotten a very, very different scale
186
531722
2439
而它的规模也与设计
09:10
than it was designed for.
187
534161
2171
大相径庭。
09:12
And in fact, nobody really exactly understands
188
536332
2676
事实上，没有人真正完全了解
09:14
all the things it's being used for right now.
189
539008
2263
所有这些如今使用的东西。
09:17
It's turning into one of these big emergent systems
190
541271
2503
它正在成为像财政系统这么大的一个应急系统，
09:19
like the financial system, where we've designed all the parts
191
543774
3481
在这个应急系统中我们已经设计好所有部分，
09:23
but nobody really exactly understands
192
547255
2606
但没有人真正了解
09:25
how it operates and all the little details of it
193
549861
3227
它的运作方式，它的所有细节，
09:28
and what kinds of emergent behaviors it can have.
194
553088
2719
以及它能有怎样的应急行为。
09:31
And so if you hear an expert talking about the Internet
195
555807
3133
所以，如果你听到一个专家谈论互联网，
09:34
and saying it can do this, or it does do this, or it will do that,
196
558940
2695
提起它能做这个，它这样做或者它将会做什么，
09:37
you should treat it with the same skepticism
197
561635
2461
你应该持怀疑态度，
09:39
that you might treat the comments of an economist about the economy
198
564096
4415
就像你怀疑一个经济学家对经济的评论
09:44
or a weatherman about the weather, or something like that.
199
568511
2267
怀疑一个气象员的天气播报，等类似的行为一样。
09:46
They have an informed opinion,
200
570778
2648
虽然这些专家们见多识广，
09:49
but it's changing so quickly that even the experts
201
573426
2541
但是互联网发展得如此迅速，以至于专家们
09:51
don't know exactly what's going on.
202
575967
1818
也不能确切地知道将会发生了什么事。
09:53
So if you see one of these maps of the Internet,
203
577785
2692
所以如果你看到一些互联网宏图，
09:56
it's just somebody's guess.
204
580477
1666
它们只是某人的猜测而已。
09:58
Nobody really knows what the Internet is right now
205
582143
2198
没人真正知道互联网如今是什么，
10:00
because it's different than it was an hour ago.
206
584341
2741
因为它每个小时都不一样，
10:02
It's constantly changing. It's constantly reconfiguring.
207
587082
2801
它在不断的在变化，不断的在重新配置。
10:05
And the problem with it is,
208
589883
1514
而问题在于，
10:07
I think we are setting ourselves up for a kind of disaster
209
591397
3341
我认为，我们正在将我们自己置于类似于
10:10
like the disaster we had in the financial system,
210
594738
2795
金融风暴那样的灾难之上，
10:13
where we take a system that's basically built on trust,
211
597533
5344
在金融系统中我们采用了一个基于信任建立的系统，
10:18
was basically built for a smaller-scale system,
212
602877
2621
该系统只是一个小规模的系统，
10:21
and we've kind of expanded it way beyond the limits
213
605498
2909
我们已经扩展了该系统，且超出了
10:24
of how it was meant to operate.
214
608407
1996
该系统运作的极限。
10:26
And so right now, I think it's literally true
215
610403
3268
因此，我认为，
10:29
that we don't know what the consequences
216
613671
3505
我们不知道互联网
10:33
of an effective denial-of-service attack
217
617176
2434
收到一个有效的拒绝服务攻击的
10:35
on the Internet would be,
218
619610
1773
后果将会如何，
10:37
and whatever it would be is going to be worse next year,
219
621383
1874
而无论如何变化，它将会变得更糟，再过一年
10:39
and worse next year, and so on.
220
623257
1408
会更加糟糕，年复一年，越来越糟。
10:40
But so what we need is a plan B.
221
624665
2549
于是就是我们需要一个B计划。
10:43
There is no plan B right now.
222
627214
1632
但是目前没有B计划。
10:44
There's no clear backup system that we've very carefully kept
223
628846
3503
不存在一个我们谨慎的让它独立于互联网之外的
10:48
to be independent of the Internet,
224
632349
1946
明确的备份系统，
10:50
made out of completely different sets of building blocks.
225
634295
3066
该系统是由完全不同的构件所建立。
10:53
So what we need is something that doesn't necessarily
226
637361
3013
因此我们需要的系统并不一定
10:56
have to have the performance of the Internet,
227
640374
2734
必须有因特网的功能，
10:59
but the police department has to be able
228
643108
1517
但是，即使在没有互联网的情况下，
11:00
to call up the fire department even without the Internet,
229
644625
2523
警察部门必须能够呼叫消防部门，
11:03
or the hospitals have to order fuel oil.
230
647148
2565
或者医院可以订购燃油。
11:05
This doesn't need to be a multi-billion-dollar government project.
231
649713
4614
这不是那种花费数十亿美金的政府项目。
11:10
It's actually relatively simple to do, technically,
232
654327
2748
从技术上讲，这个项目非常简单，
11:12
because it can use existing fibers that are in the ground,
233
657075
3802
因为他可以利用地下已有的无线基础架构-
11:16
existing wireless infrastructure.
234
660877
1959
光纤。
11:18
It's basically a matter of deciding to do it.
235
662836
2765
这不过是个简单的决定。
11:21
But people won't decide to do it
236
665601
2484
但是直到人民意识到真正的需要，
11:23
until they recognize the need for it,
237
668085
2379
才会决定去做，
11:26
and that's the problem that we have right now.
238
670464
1498
这就是现在的问题所在。
11:27
So there's been plenty of people,
239
671962
2783
因此大量的人，
11:30
plenty of us have been quietly arguing
240
674745
3044
大量的专家们多年来一直在静静地争论
11:33
that we should have this independent system for years,
241
677789
2918
我们应该有这么一套独立的系统，
11:36
but it's very hard to get people focused on plan B
242
680707
3009
但很难让人们在互联网运行良好时，
11:39
when plan A seems to be working so well.
243
683716
3674
去关注B计划。
11:43
So I think that, if people understand
244
687390
3429
因此我认为，如果人们认识到
11:46
how much we're starting to depend on the Internet,
245
690819
3054
我们逐渐有多么地依赖互联网，
11:49
and how vulnerable it is,
246
693873
1977
互联网是多么的脆弱，
11:51
we could get focused on
247
695850
2106
我们能够着眼于
11:53
just wanting this other system to exist,
248
697956
3024
希望这样的系统存在，
11:56
and I think if enough people say, "Yeah, I would like to use it,
249
700980
3077
并且我认为，如果足够多的人说：”是的，我想使用它，
11:59
I'd like to have such a system," then it will get built.
250
704057
3010
我愿意有这样一个系统”，它就会得以建立。
12:02
It's not that hard a problem.
251
707067
1423
这不是一个难题，
12:04
It could definitely be done by people in this room.
252
708490
3235
甚至可以由在座的某位完成。
12:07
And so I think that this is actually,
253
711725
4359
因此我认为，实际上，
12:11
of all the problems you're going to hear about at the conference,
254
716084
3179
在会议上将会听到的所有问题，
12:15
this is probably one of the very easiest to fix.
255
719263
2678
极有可能存在一种非常容易的解决方案。
12:17
So I'm happy to get a chance to tell you about it.
256
721941
2767
我很高兴有机会告诉你们这一点。
12:20
Thank you very much.
257
724708
2611
非常感谢。
12:23
(Applause)
258
727319
3854
(掌声)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Danny Hillis - Computer theoristInventor, scientist, author, engineer -- over his broad career, Danny Hillis has turned his ever-searching brain on an array of subjects, with surprising results.
Why you should listen
Danny Hillis is an inventor, scientist, author and engineer. While completing his doctorate at MIT, he pioneered the concept of parallel computers that is now the basis for graphics processors and cloud computing. He holds more than 300 US patents, covering parallel computers, disk arrays, forgery prevention methods, various electronic and mechanical devices, and the pinch-to-zoom display interface. He has recently been working on problems in medicine as well. He is also the designer of a 10,000-year mechanical clock, and he gave a TED Talk in 1994 that is practically prophetic. Throughout his career, Hillis has worked at places like Disney, and now MIT and Applied Invention, always looking for the next fascinating problem.
Danny Hillis | Speaker | TED.com