TEDxCERN
Juan Enriquez: The age of genetic wonder
胡安·恩里克斯: 基因奇迹的时代
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像CRISPR这样的基因编辑工具使我们能够在生命最基本的层面上进行编程。但这也提出了一些紧迫的问题：如果我们能从零开始创造新物种，我们应该构建什么？我们应该像我们所知道的那样重新设计人类吗？在这个演进中，胡安·恩里克斯（Juan Enriquez）为我们预测了基因编辑可能的未来，去探索下一个前沿领域的巨大不确定性和机遇。
Juan Enriquez - Futurist
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society. Full bio
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
So let me with start with Roy Amara.
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让我从罗伊·阿马拉开始。
00:16
Roy's argument is that most new
technologies tend to be overestimated
technologies tend to be overestimated
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罗伊的观点是，
大多数新技术刚出现时，
大多数新技术刚出现时，
影响力往往被高估了，
00:20
in their impact to begin with,
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而在长时期内，它们的影响又被低估，
00:22
and then they get underestimated
in the long term
in the long term
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因为我们变得习惯了。
00:25
because we get used to them.
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这真是充满奇迹和想象的日子。
00:26
These really are days
of miracle and wonder.
of miracle and wonder.
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00:29
You remember that wonderful
song by Paul Simon?
song by Paul Simon?
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你还记得保罗·西蒙的
那首美妙的歌吗？
那首美妙的歌吗？
00:32
There were two lines in it.
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里面有两行歌词。
当时人们认为什么是奇迹呢？
00:33
So what was it that was considered
miraculous back then?
miraculous back then?
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00:38
Slowing down things -- slow motion --
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放慢速度——慢动作——
00:41
and the long-distance call.
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还有打长途电话。
00:43
Because, of course, you used
to get interrupted by operators
to get interrupted by operators
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因为，你显然曾被接线员打断过，
她会告诉你，“长途电话喔，
你想要挂断吗？”
你想要挂断吗？”
00:46
who'd tell you, "Long distance calling.
Do you want to hang up?"
Do you want to hang up?"
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而今天我们习惯了在全球范围
都可以随时连线。
都可以随时连线。
00:49
And now we think nothing of calling
all over the world.
all over the world.
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00:53
Well, something similar may be happening
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类似的事情也发生在
生命信息阅读和编程领域。
00:55
with reading and programming life.
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00:58
But before I unpack that,
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但在我展开前，
01:01
let's just talk about telescopes.
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让我们来聊聊望远镜。
01:04
Telescopes were overestimated
originally in their impact.
originally in their impact.
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望远镜起初的影响被高估了。
这是伽利略早期的模型之一。
01:09
This is one of Galileo's early models.
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01:12
People thought it was just
going to ruin all religion.
going to ruin all religion.
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人们认为这会毁了所有的宗教。
（笑声）
01:15
(Laughter)
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01:18
So we're not paying that much
attention to telescopes.
attention to telescopes.
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所以人们并没有
花什么心思研究望远镜。
花什么心思研究望远镜。
01:22
But, of course, telescopes launched
10 years ago, as you just heard,
10 years ago, as you just heard,
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不过，你当然也听说了，
10多年前发射的望远镜，
10多年前发射的望远镜，
可以带着这台大众轿车飞到月球上，
01:26
could take this Volkswagen,
fly it to the moon,
fly it to the moon,
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你可以看到这辆大众汽车的灯
在月球上亮了起来。
在月球上亮了起来。
01:29
and you could see the lights
on that Volkswagen light up on the moon.
on that Volkswagen light up on the moon.
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01:36
And that's the kind of resolution power
that allowed you to see
that allowed you to see
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这种程度的分辨率可以让你看到
01:40
little specks of dust
floating around distant suns.
floating around distant suns.
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漂浮在遥远太阳周围的小尘埃。
想象一下，这是10亿光年之外的太阳，
01:44
Imagine for a second that this
was a sun a billion light years away,
was a sun a billion light years away,
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01:48
and you had a little speck of dust
that came in front of it.
that came in front of it.
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在它前面有一小点灰尘。
01:51
That's what detecting
an exoplanet is like.
an exoplanet is like.
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这就是探测系外行星的感觉。
01:55
And the cool thing is, the telescopes
that are now being launched
that are now being launched
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很酷的事情在于，如今发射的望远镜
02:00
would allow you to see
a single candle lit on the moon.
a single candle lit on the moon.
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可以让你看到月球上点亮的一根蜡烛。
02:04
And if you separated it by one plate,
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如果你用盘子把它分开，
你可以在那个距离看到两根单独的蜡烛。
02:07
you could see two candles
separately at that distance.
separately at that distance.
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02:11
And that's the kind
of resolution that you need
of resolution that you need
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这就是你开始对太阳周围的
那一点小尘埃进行成像，
02:13
to begin to image
that little speck of dust
that little speck of dust
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去看看它是不是蓝绿色
02:16
as it comes around the sun
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所需要的特征。
02:17
and see if it has a blue-green signature.
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02:21
And if it does have
a blue-green signature,
a blue-green signature,
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如果它确实有蓝绿信号，
这就意味着生命在宇宙中普遍存在。
02:23
it means that life
is common in the universe.
is common in the universe.
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你第一次在遥远的星球上
看到蓝绿色的标志，
看到蓝绿色的标志，
02:25
The first time you ever see a blue-green
signature on a distant planet,
signature on a distant planet,
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这意味着那里有光合作用，
02:29
it means there's photosynthesis there,
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那里有水，
02:31
there's water there,
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你看到唯一一个除地球外
有光合作用的行星的
有光合作用的行星的
02:33
and the chances that you saw
the only other planet with photosynthesis
the only other planet with photosynthesis
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几率几乎是零。
02:36
are about zero.
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02:39
And that's a calendar-changing event.
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这是一个划时代的事件。
02:41
There's a before and after
we were alone in the universe:
we were alone in the universe:
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这是我们在宇宙中是否孤独的分界线：
别去想什么发现新大陆了。
02:44
forget about the discovery
of whatever continent.
of whatever continent.
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02:48
So as you're thinking about this,
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思考一下这个问题，
我们现在开始能够描绘大部分的宇宙。
02:50
we're now beginning
to be able to image most of the universe.
to be able to image most of the universe.
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这真是充满奇迹和想象的时代。
02:53
And that is a time of miracle and wonder.
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我们却有点视为理所当然。
02:55
And we kind of take that for granted.
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02:59
Something similar is happening in life.
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类似的事情正发生在生命领域。
我们不断听到关于生命的碎片信息。
03:01
So we're hearing about life
in these little bits and pieces.
in these little bits and pieces.
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我们听说过CRISPR，听说过这项技术，
03:04
We hear about CRISPR,
and we hear about this technology,
and we hear about this technology,
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听说过那项技术。
03:07
and we hear about this technology.
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但生命的本质是编码。
03:08
But the bottom line on life
is that life turns out to be code.
is that life turns out to be code.
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03:13
And life as code is a really
important concept because it means,
important concept because it means,
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生命就是编码
是个非常重要的概念，
是个非常重要的概念，
因为这意味着，
就像你写一个句子一样，
就像你写一个句子一样，
03:17
just in the same way
as you can write a sentence
as you can write a sentence
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可以用英文或法语或中文，
03:21
in English or in French or Chinese,
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03:25
just in the same way
as you can copy a sentence,
as you can copy a sentence,
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就像你可以复制一个句子一样，
就像你可以修改一个句子一样，
03:28
just in the same way
as you can edit a sentence,
as you can edit a sentence,
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就像你可以打印一个句子一样，
03:30
just in the same way
as you can print a sentence,
as you can print a sentence,
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你可以对生命也这样做。
03:33
you're beginning to be able
to do that with life.
to do that with life.
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03:37
It means that we're beginning
to learn how to read this language.
to learn how to read this language.
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这意味着我们正在开始学习
如何阅读这门语言。
如何阅读这门语言。
当然，也是这个橙子使用的语言。
03:40
And this, of course, is the language
that is used by this orange.
that is used by this orange.
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03:44
So how does this orange execute code?
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那这个橙子如何执行编码？
它不像计算机那样用1，0来表示。
03:46
It doesn't do it in ones and zeroes
like a computer does.
like a computer does.
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它呆在树上，有一天它会：
03:49
It sits on a tree, and one day it does:
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扑通！
03:51
plop!
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03:52
And that means: execute.
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这意味着：执行。
03:55
AATCAAG: make me a little root.
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AATCAAG: 生根。
03:59
TCGACC: make me a little stem.
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TCGACC: 开枝。
GAC: 生叶。
AGC: 开花。
AGC: 开花。
04:01
GAC: make me some leaves.
AGC: make me some flowers.
AGC: make me some flowers.
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然后GCAA：结更多的橙子。
04:05
And then GCAA: make me some more oranges.
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04:08
If I edit a sentence in English
on a word processor,
on a word processor,
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如果我在文字处理软件上
用英文编写句子，
用英文编写句子，
04:15
then what happens is you can go
from this word to that word.
from this word to that word.
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紧接着你就可以从这个词到那个词。
04:20
If I edit something in this orange
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如果我在这个橙子中编辑东西，
放入GCAAC，使用CRISPR
或其他你听过的技术，
或其他你听过的技术，
04:22
and put in GCAAC, using CRISPR
or something else that you've heard of,
or something else that you've heard of,
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04:28
then this orange becomes a lemon,
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然后这个橙子变成了柠檬，
04:30
or it becomes a grapefruit,
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或者变成一个葡萄柚，
或者变成橘子。
04:32
or it becomes a tangerine.
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04:35
And if I edit one in a thousand letters,
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如果我编辑千分之一的代码，
你就会变成今天坐在你旁边的人。
04:37
you become the person
sitting next to you today.
sitting next to you today.
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04:40
Be more careful where you sit.
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多用心看看你要坐在哪里。
（笑声）
04:42
(Laughter)
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04:45
What's happening on this stuff
is it was really expensive to begin with.
is it was really expensive to begin with.
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这项技术在初始阶段成本非常高。
有点像长途电话诞生的初期。
04:48
It was like long-distance calls.
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04:51
But the cost of this is dropping
50 percent faster than Moore's law.
50 percent faster than Moore's law.
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但成本下降的速度比
摩尔定律快50%。
摩尔定律快50%。
04:55
The first $200 full genome
was announced yesterday by Veritas.
was announced yesterday by Veritas.
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Veritas 昨天宣布了首个
200美元全基因组计划。
200美元全基因组计划。
05:00
And so as you're looking at these systems,
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当你看这些系统的时候，
它无关紧要，它无关紧要，
它无关紧要，然后它变得紧要了。
它无关紧要，然后它变得紧要了。
05:02
it doesn't matter, it doesn't matter,
it doesn't matter, and then it does.
it doesn't matter, and then it does.
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我想给你看看这玩意儿
的地图预览模式。
的地图预览模式。
05:06
So let me just give you
the map view of this stuff.
the map view of this stuff.
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05:10
This is a big discovery.
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这是一个大发现。
有23条染色体。
05:13
There's 23 chromosomes.
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真酷。
05:15
Cool.
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05:17
Let's now start using a telescope version,
but instead of using a telescope,
but instead of using a telescope,
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现在让我们启动望远镜视角，
不过用的不是望远镜，
不过用的不是望远镜，
而是通过显微镜放大看看
05:20
let's use a microscope to zoom in
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这些染色体中较低级别的
05:23
on the inferior of those chromosomes,
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Y染色体。
05:25
which is the Y chromosome.
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05:28
It's a third the size of the X.
It's recessive and mutant.
It's recessive and mutant.
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它的大小是X染色体的1/3，
是隐性和突变的。
是隐性和突变的。
05:32
But hey,
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但是呢，
05:34
just a male.
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只是个男性罢了。
05:36
And as you're looking at this stuff,
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继续来看，
这有点像一个国家视图，
05:39
here's kind of a country view
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以400个碱基对的分辨率来看，
05:42
at a 400 base pair resolution level,
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然后你放大到500对，再到850对，
05:44
and then you zoom in to 550,
and then you zoom in to 850,
and then you zoom in to 850,
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随着放大，你开始能
识别出越来越多的基因。
识别出越来越多的基因。
05:48
and you can begin to identify
more and more genes as you zoom in.
more and more genes as you zoom in.
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05:52
Then you zoom in to the state level,
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然后你放大到州级分辨率，
05:55
and you can begin to tell
who's got leukemia,
who's got leukemia,
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你开始能说出谁得了白血病，
05:59
how did they get leukemia,
what kind of leukemia do they have,
what kind of leukemia do they have,
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他们是怎么得的白血病，
得了哪种白血病，
得了哪种白血病，
从何处被移动到何处。
06:02
what shifted from what place
to what place.
to what place.
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06:05
And then you zoom in
to the Google street view level.
to the Google street view level.
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然后你放大到谷歌街景的级别。
06:09
So this is what happens
if you have colorectal cancer
if you have colorectal cancer
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这就是你从某个结肠直肠癌病人身上
以字母分辨率级别，看到的情况。
06:12
for a very specific patient
on the letter-by-letter resolution.
on the letter-by-letter resolution.
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06:18
So what we're doing in this stuff
is we're gathering information
is we're gathering information
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所以我们正在收集信息
和生成大量的信息。
06:21
and just generating
enormous amounts of information.
enormous amounts of information.
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这是地球上最大的数据库之一，
06:23
This is one of the largest
databases on the planet
databases on the planet
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它的增长速度比我们制造电脑
存储它的速度还快。
存储它的速度还快。
06:26
and it's growing faster
than we can build computers to store it.
than we can build computers to store it.
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06:32
You can create some incredible
maps with this stuff.
maps with this stuff.
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你可以用这些东西
构建一些不可思议的地图。
构建一些不可思议的地图。
06:35
You want to understand the plague
and why one plague is bubonic
and why one plague is bubonic
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你想了解鼠疫和为什么
这种鼠疫是淋巴腺鼠疫，
这种鼠疫是淋巴腺鼠疫，
另一种是不同类型的鼠疫，
06:38
and the other one
is a different kind of plague
is a different kind of plague
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还有一种不同类型的鼠疫吗？
06:40
and the other one
is a different kind of plague?
is a different kind of plague?
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这就是鼠疫的地图。
06:42
Well, here's a map of the plague.
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06:45
Some are absolutely deadly to humans,
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有些对人类绝对致命的，
有些则不会。
06:46
some are not.
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06:48
And note, by the way,
as you go to the bottom of this,
as you go to the bottom of this,
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顺便说一下，当你看到底部的时候，
注意把它与结核病对比观察。
06:51
how does it compare to tuberculosis?
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06:53
So this is the difference between
tuberculosis and various kinds of plagues,
tuberculosis and various kinds of plagues,
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这就是肺结核和各种瘟疫的区别，
你可以用它来做侦探游戏，
06:57
and you can play detective
with this stuff,
with this stuff,
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因为你可以选择一种影响了
06:59
because you can take
a very specific kind of cholera
a very specific kind of cholera
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海地的特殊霍乱，
07:02
that affected Haiti,
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07:04
and you can look at
which country it came from,
which country it came from,
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你可以追踪看它来自哪个国家，
哪个地区，
07:07
which region it came from,
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07:09
and probably which soldier took that
from that African country to Haiti.
from that African country to Haiti.
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以及可能是哪个士兵把它
从哪个非洲国家带到海地。
从哪个非洲国家带到海地。
07:17
Zoom out.
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缩小。
不仅仅只是放大。
07:18
It's not just zooming in.
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07:21
This is one of the coolest maps
ever done by human beings.
ever done by human beings.
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这是人类绘制的最酷的地图之一。
07:24
What they've done is taken
all the genetic information they have
all the genetic information they have
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我们把获得的所有物种
的基因信息
07:27
about all the species,
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放在一棵生命树上，只用一页，
07:29
and they've put a tree of life
on a single page
on a single page
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你可以放大和缩小。
07:32
that you can zoom in and out of.
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07:34
So this is what came first,
how did it diversify, how did it branch,
how did it diversify, how did it branch,
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这就是第一眼看到的，
它是如何多样，如何多分支，
它是如何多样，如何多分支，
如此庞大的一个基因组，
07:38
how large is that genome,
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全都展现在一个页面上。
07:39
on a single page.
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07:41
It's kind of the universe
of life on Earth,
of life on Earth,
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它相当于地球上生命的宇宙，
而且还在不断更新和完善。
07:43
and it's being constantly
updated and completed.
updated and completed.
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07:46
And so as you're looking at this stuff,
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当你看到这些信息的时候，
真正重要的变化是
过去的生物学是被动的。
过去的生物学是被动的。
07:48
the really important change is
the old biology used to be reactive.
the old biology used to be reactive.
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过去很多生物学家都有显微镜，
07:52
You used to have a lot of biologists
that had microscopes,
that had microscopes,
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他们带着放大镜在外面观察动物。
07:54
and they had magnifying glasses
and they were out observing animals.
and they were out observing animals.
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07:58
The new biology is proactive.
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新的生物学是主动的。
08:01
You don't just observe stuff,
you make stuff.
you make stuff.
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你不仅只是观察事物，你还创造事物。
08:05
And that's a really big change
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这是个重大的变化，
因为它让我们可以像这样做事情。
08:06
because it allows us
to do things like this.
to do things like this.
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08:10
And I know you're really
excited by this picture.
excited by this picture.
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我知道你们对这张照片很兴奋。
（笑声）
08:13
(Laughter)
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它只花了我们4年时间和4千万美元
08:14
It only took us four years
and 40 million dollars
and 40 million dollars
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来拍下这张照片。
08:16
to be able to take this picture.
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（笑声）
08:18
(Laughter)
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我们把完整的
08:19
And what we did
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08:21
is we took the full gene code
out of a cell --
out of a cell --
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基因编码从细胞中提取出来——
不是一个基因，不是两个基因，
是把整个基因编码从细胞中提取出来，
是把整个基因编码从细胞中提取出来，
08:24
not a gene, not two genes,
the full gene code out of a cell --
the full gene code out of a cell --
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08:30
built a completely new gene code,
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构建一个全新的基因编码，
08:32
inserted it into the cell,
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再注入到细胞中，
找到方法让细胞执行编码
08:34
figured out a way to have the cell
execute that code
execute that code
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去创造一个全新的物种。
08:37
and built a completely new species.
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08:40
So this is the world's first
synthetic life form.
synthetic life form.
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所以这是世界上
第一个合成生命形式。
第一个合成生命形式。
08:45
And so what do you do with this stuff?
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那么有了这个技术后我们要做什么？
08:48
Well, this stuff is going
to change the world.
to change the world.
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它会改变世界。
08:51
Let me give you three short-term trends
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让我给你们三个短期的趋势，
来理解它将如何改变世界。
08:53
in terms of how it's going
to change the world.
to change the world.
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08:56
The first is we're going to see
a new industrial revolution.
a new industrial revolution.
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首先，我们将看到
一场新的工业革命。
一场新的工业革命。
08:59
And I actually mean that literally.
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我是认真的，毫不夸张。
09:01
So in the same way as Switzerland
and Germany and Britain
and Germany and Britain
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就像瑞士，德国和英国
用你们在这次会议的大厅里
看到的机器改变了世界一样，
看到的机器改变了世界一样，
09:06
changed the world with machines
like the one you see in this lobby,
like the one you see in this lobby,
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09:11
created power --
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创造了力量——
09:13
in the same way CERN
is changing the world,
is changing the world,
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也如同欧洲核子研究中心（CERN）
正在使用新的仪器
正在使用新的仪器
和我们对宇宙的概念
改变世界一样——
改变世界一样——
09:15
using new instruments
and our concept of the universe --
and our concept of the universe --
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09:20
programmable life forms
are also going to change the world
are also going to change the world
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可编码的生命形态也将改变世界，
09:23
because once you can program cells
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因为一旦你可以对细胞编码，
就像你对电脑芯片编程一样，
09:25
in the same way as you
program your computer chip,
program your computer chip,
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09:29
then you can make almost anything.
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然后你几乎可以做任何事情。
09:32
So your computer chip
can produce photographs,
can produce photographs,
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你的电脑芯片可以制作图像，
音乐，电影，
09:35
can produce music, can produce film,
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可以写情书，制作电子表格。
09:37
can produce love letters,
can produce spreadsheets.
can produce spreadsheets.
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这只是许多 1 和 0 在那里飞来飞去。
09:39
It's just ones and zeroes
flying through there.
flying through there.
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09:42
If you can flow ATCGs through cells,
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如果你能让 ATCG 在细胞中穿行，
09:46
then this software makes its own hardware,
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软件就会创造自己的硬件，
这意味着它扩展的速度非常快。
09:49
which means it scales very quickly.
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09:52
No matter what happens,
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不管发生什么，
如果你把手机放在床边，
09:54
if you leave your cell phone
by your bedside,
by your bedside,
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你早上醒来不会有数十亿部手机。
09:56
you will not have a billion
cell phones in the morning.
cell phones in the morning.
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09:59
But if you do that with living organisms,
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但如果你对活的生物体这样做，
10:05
you can make this stuff
at a very large scale.
at a very large scale.
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你可以大规模复制这些生命。
10:09
One of the things you can do
is you can start producing
is you can start producing
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到2025年，你其实可以
开始以商业规模
10:12
close to carbon-neutral fuels
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生产接近碳中性的燃料，
10:14
on a commercial scale by 2025,
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2426
10:18
which we're doing with Exxon.
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我们正在与埃克森公司
就这个问题展开合作。
就这个问题展开合作。
10:20
But you can also substitute
for agricultural lands.
for agricultural lands.
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你也可以用它来取代农田。
不再需要100公顷的土地
来生产油或蛋白质，
来生产油或蛋白质，
10:23
Instead of having 100 hectares
to make oils or to make proteins,
to make oils or to make proteins,
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相反，你可以在这些大桶里
10:28
you can make it in these vats
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以每公顷10到100倍的产量生产。
10:29
at 10 or 100 times
the productivity per hectare.
the productivity per hectare.
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10:33
Or you can store information,
or you can make all the world's vaccines
or you can make all the world's vaccines
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你也可以在这三个桶里
储存信息，或者制造世界上
储存信息，或者制造世界上
所有的疫苗。
10:36
in those three vats.
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10:39
Or you can store most of the information
that's held at CERN in those three vats.
that's held at CERN in those three vats.
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3949
或者你可以把CERN保存的大部分
信息存储在这三个容器中。
信息存储在这三个容器中。
10:44
DNA is a really powerful
information storage device.
information storage device.
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DNA真是个非常强大的信息存储设备。
10:48
Second turn:
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第二：
你开始看到理论生物学的兴起。
10:50
you're beginning to see the rise
of theoretical biology.
of theoretical biology.
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2784
10:54
So, medical school departments are one
of the most conservative places on earth.
of the most conservative places on earth.
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4202
医学院是世界上最保守的地方之一。
他们教解剖学的方法
10:58
The way they teach anatomy is similar
to the way they taught anatomy
to the way they taught anatomy
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还像100年前一样。
11:01
100 years ago.
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1166
“欢迎，学生们，这是你的尸体。”
11:03
"Welcome, student. Here's your cadaver."
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2024
11:06
One of the things medical schools are
not good at is creating new departments,
not good at is creating new departments,
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3707
医学院不擅长开设新的院部，
这是为什么它很少见的原因。
11:09
which is why this is so unusual.
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1749
11:12
Isaac Kohane has now created a department
based on informatics, data, knowledge
based on informatics, data, knowledge
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6498
萨克·科哈尼现在在哈佛医学院
创建了一个基于信息学、数据
创建了一个基于信息学、数据
和知识的部门。
11:18
at Harvard Medical School.
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1511
11:21
And in a sense,
what's beginning to happen is
what's beginning to happen is
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2177
在某种意义上，
生物学正在开始获得足够的数据，
11:23
biology is beginning to get enough data
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2482
可以开始追随物理学发展的步伐，
11:26
that it can begin to follow
the steps of physics,
the steps of physics,
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2766
物理学曾经只包括观测物理
11:28
which used to be observational physics
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3388
和实验物理，
11:32
and experimental physicists,
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680317
1971
然后才开始创建理论生物学。
11:34
and then started creating
theoretical biology.
theoretical biology.
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2162
这就是你们刚开始看到的，
11:36
Well, that's what you're beginning to see
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684498
2004
因为你有如此之多的医疗记录，
11:38
because you have so many medical records,
225
686526
1980
因为你有关于人的如此多的数据：
11:40
because you have
so much data about people:
so much data about people:
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2032
有他们的基因组，有他们的病毒体，
11:42
you've got their genomes,
you've got their viromes,
you've got their viromes,
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2410
有他们的微生物群。
11:45
you've got their microbiomes.
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1494
随着这些信息累加，
11:46
And as this information stacks,
229
694538
1981
你可以开始做预测。
11:48
you can begin to make predictions.
230
696543
2063
11:52
The third thing that's happening
is this is coming to the consumer.
is this is coming to the consumer.
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3255
第三件发生的事情是，
这一切正在走向消费者。
这一切正在走向消费者。
11:56
So you, too, can get your genes sequenced.
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你也可以测序你的基因。
12:01
And this is beginning to create
companies like 23andMe,
companies like 23andMe,
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2728
这也导致了像23andMe
这样的公司的诞生，
这样的公司的诞生，
这样的公司会给你
12:04
and companies like 23andMe
are going to be giving you
are going to be giving you
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2478
越来越多的数据，
12:06
more and more and more data,
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1352
不仅关于你的亲戚，
12:08
not just about your relatives,
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1544
12:10
but about you and your body,
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1360
也关于你和你自己的身体，
它还会进行比较，
12:11
and it's going to compare stuff,
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1531
可以跨时间进行比较，
12:13
and it's going
to compare stuff across time,
to compare stuff across time,
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2093
将会形成非常大型的数据库。
12:15
and these are going to become
very large databases.
very large databases.
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2607
但这也将开始以
不可预期的方式影响
不可预期的方式影响
12:18
But it's also beginning to affect
a series of other businesses
a series of other businesses
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2962
一系列其他商业。
12:21
in unexpected ways.
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12:23
Normally, when you advertise something,
you really don't want the consumer
you really don't want the consumer
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3751
通常情况下，当你做广告的时候，
你真的不希望消费者
你真的不希望消费者
在你的广告宣传页上小便。
12:27
to take your advertisement
into the bathroom to pee on.
into the bathroom to pee on.
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4567
12:33
Unless, of course, if you're IKEA.
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2055
当然，除非你是宜家。
12:37
Because when you rip this
out of a magazine and you pee on it,
out of a magazine and you pee on it,
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2906
因为当你从杂志上撕下这页，
尿在上面的时候，
尿在上面的时候，
如果你怀孕了，它会变成蓝色。
12:40
it'll turn blue if you're pregnant.
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2069
（笑声）
12:42
(Laughter)
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1213
12:44
And they'll give you
a discount on your crib.
a discount on your crib.
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他们会给你的婴儿床打折。
（笑声）
12:48
(Laughter)
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1158
对吧？所以当我说消费者被赋能时，
12:49
Right? So when I say consumer empowerment,
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这已经超越了生物技术，
12:51
and this is spreading beyond biotech,
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2739
我是说真的。
12:54
I actually really mean that.
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1819
12:58
We're now beginning to produce,
at Synthetic Genomics,
at Synthetic Genomics,
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3365
在Synthetic Genomics（合成基因公司），
我们现在开始生产
我们现在开始生产
13:02
desktop printers
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1471
台式打印机，
13:05
that allow you to design a cell,
256
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3530
可以让你设计细胞，
打印细胞，
13:08
print a cell,
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1167
执行细胞中的编码。
13:09
execute the program on the cell.
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1845
13:12
We can now print vaccines
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2103
我们现在可以实时打印疫苗，
就在飞机起飞时开始，
13:14
real time as an airplane takes off
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2247
在着陆前完成。
13:17
before it lands.
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1190
13:19
We're shipping 78
of these machines this year.
of these machines this year.
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2572
我们今年将售出78台这种机器。
13:24
This is not theoretical biology.
This is printing biology.
This is printing biology.
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4473
这不是理论生物学，
这是打印生物学。
这是打印生物学。
13:30
Let me talk about two long-term trends
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2196
让我再谈谈两个长期趋势，
13:33
that are coming at you
over a longer time period.
over a longer time period.
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3326
是将会在更长的时间内
发生在你身上的。
发生在你身上的。
13:37
The first one is, we're starting
to redesign species.
to redesign species.
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2656
第一个是，我们开始重新设计物种。
13:41
And you've heard about that, right?
267
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1777
你已听说过了，对吧？
我们重新设计了树木，
我们重新设计了鲜花。
我们重新设计了鲜花。
13:42
We're redesigning trees.
We're redesigning flowers.
We're redesigning flowers.
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2681
我们重新设计了酸奶，
13:45
We're redesigning yogurt,
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2293
13:48
cheese, whatever else you want.
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2030
奶酪，随便你要什么。
13:51
And that, of course,
brings up the interesting question:
brings up the interesting question:
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2650
当然，这引出了一个有趣的问题：
13:54
How and when should we redesign humans?
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2336
我们要怎样以及何时重新设计人类？
13:59
And a lot of us think,
"Oh no, we never want to redesign humans."
"Oh no, we never want to redesign humans."
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3557
我们很多人会想，“哦，不，
我们从来不想重新设计人类。”
我们从来不想重新设计人类。”
14:04
Unless, of course, if your child
has a Huntington's gene
has a Huntington's gene
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2715
当然，除非你的孩子
有亨廷顿氏舞蹈症基因
有亨廷顿氏舞蹈症基因
并且被医生判了死刑。
14:06
and is condemned to death.
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1389
14:09
Or, unless if you're passing on
a cystic fibrosis gene,
a cystic fibrosis gene,
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3363
或者，除非你遗传了
囊性纤维化基因，
囊性纤维化基因，
在这种情况下，
你不只是想重新设计自己，
你不只是想重新设计自己，
14:12
in which case, you don't just want
to redesign yourself,
to redesign yourself,
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2690
你还想重新设计
你的孩子和他们的孩子。
你的孩子和他们的孩子。
14:15
you want to redesign your children
and their children.
and their children.
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2539
14:18
And these are complicated debates
and they're going to happen in real time.
and they're going to happen in real time.
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3645
这些都是复杂的争论，
它们当下正在发生着。
它们当下正在发生着。
14:22
I'll give you one current example.
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850839
1951
我给你们一个最近的例子。
14:25
One of the debates going on
at the National Academies today
at the National Academies today
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3072
今天在国家科学院进行的
一场辩论是关于
一场辩论是关于
14:29
is you have the power to put
a gene drive into mosquitoes
a gene drive into mosquitoes
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4702
如果你有能力把基因注入蚊子体内，
这样你就可以杀死所有
携带疟疾的蚊子。
携带疟疾的蚊子。
14:34
so that you will kill
all the malaria-carrying mosquitoes.
all the malaria-carrying mosquitoes.
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2984
14:39
Now, some people say,
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2560
有人会说，
14:42
"That's going to affect the environment
in an extreme way, don't do it."
in an extreme way, don't do it."
285
870964
3465
“这将会以一种极端的方式
影响环境，不要这样做。”
影响环境，不要这样做。”
14:47
Other people say,
286
875326
1155
其他人则说，
“这是个每年造成数百万人死亡的事情，
14:48
"This is one of the things
that's killing millions of people yearly.
that's killing millions of people yearly.
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你凭什么对我说我不能
拯救我们国家的孩子们？”
拯救我们国家的孩子们？”
14:51
Who are you to tell me
that I can't save the kids in my country?"
that I can't save the kids in my country?"
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14:57
And why is this debate so complicated?
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为什么这场争论如此复杂？
因为一旦你在巴西，
或在佛罗里达州南部
或在佛罗里达州南部
14:59
Because as soon as you
let this loose in Brazil
let this loose in Brazil
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放松管制——
15:01
or in Southern Florida --
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蚊子可不管什么墙。
15:03
mosquitoes don't respect walls.
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当你把基因驱动放到空中时，
15:04
You're making a decision for the world
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你是在为世界做决定。
15:07
when you put a gene drive into the air.
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15:14
This wonderful man won a Nobel Prize,
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这个了不起的人获得了诺贝尔奖，
15:17
and after winning the Nobel Prize
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在获得诺贝尔奖后，
15:18
he's been worrying about
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他一直在操心
15:21
how did life get started on this planet
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生命是如何在这个星球上诞生的，
15:23
and how likely is it
that it's in other places?
that it's in other places?
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在其他地方存在的可能性有多大？
15:27
So what he's been doing is going around
to this graduate students
to this graduate students
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所以他一直想招一些研究生，
对他们说，
15:30
and saying to his graduate students,
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15:32
"Build me life but don't use
any modern chemicals or instruments.
any modern chemicals or instruments.
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“去创造生物，但别使用任何
现代化学品或仪器。
现代化学品或仪器。
15:36
Build me stuff that was here
three billion years ago.
three billion years ago.
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给我造些三十亿年前出现的东西。
15:38
You can't use lasers.
You can't use this. You can't use that."
You can't use this. You can't use that."
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你不能用激光，你不能用这个，
你不能用那个。”
你不能用那个。”
15:44
He gave me a vial of what he's built
about three weeks ago.
about three weeks ago.
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他给了我一小瓶他三周前做的东西。
15:48
What has he built?
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他做的是什么？
15:49
He's built basically what looked like
soap bubbles that are made out of lipids.
soap bubbles that are made out of lipids.
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看起来就像是用脂质做的肥皂泡。
15:53
He's built a precursor of RNA.
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他造出了RNA的前体。
15:57
He's had the precursor of the RNA
be absorbed by the cell
be absorbed by the cell
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他让RNA的前体被细胞吸收，
16:02
and then he's had the cells divide.
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然后让细胞分裂。
16:06
We may not be that far --
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这一天可能不会太远——
16:09
call it a decade, maybe two decades --
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10年后，也许20年后——
16:12
from generating life from scratch
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1970
我们就能从原始群落中
16:16
out of proto-communities.
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1803
造出生命。
16:19
Second long-term trend:
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第二个长期趋势：
16:22
we've been living and are living
through the digital age --
through the digital age --
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我们正在经历数字时代——
开始经历基因时代，
16:25
we're starting to live through
the age of the genome
the age of the genome
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2519
生物学，CRISPR和
合成生物学时代——
合成生物学时代——
16:28
and biology and CRISPR
and synthetic biology --
and synthetic biology --
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16:32
and all of that is going to merge
into the age of the brain.
into the age of the brain.
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所有这些都将融入大脑时代。
16:36
So we're getting to the point where
we can rebuild most of our body parts,
we can rebuild most of our body parts,
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所以我们将会到达可以重建
我们大部分身体器官的时期，
我们大部分身体器官的时期，
就像你折断骨头或烧伤皮肤，
它会重新生长一样。
它会重新生长一样。
16:40
in the same way as if you break a bone
or burn your skin, it regrows.
or burn your skin, it regrows.
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我们开始学习如何再生
16:44
We're beginning to learn
how to regrow our tracheas
how to regrow our tracheas
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气管或膀胱。
16:47
or how to regrow our bladders.
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1864
这两种方法都已被植入人体。
16:49
Both of those have been
implanted in humans.
implanted in humans.
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托尼·阿塔拉正在研究32种不同的器官。
16:51
Tony Atala is working on
32 different organs.
32 different organs.
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16:55
But the core is going to be this,
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1890
但大脑才是核心，
因为这才是你，剩下的只是包装。
16:57
because this is you
and the rest is just packaging.
and the rest is just packaging.
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3054
17:02
Nobody's going to live beyond
120, 130, 140 years
120, 130, 140 years
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3547
没人能够活过120，130，140岁，
除非我们的身体能自我修复。
17:05
unless if we fix this.
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1735
17:08
And that's the most interesting challenge.
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2066
这是最有趣的挑战。
这是下一个前沿，伴随着：
17:10
That's the next frontier, along with:
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“宇宙中生命有多么普遍？”
17:12
"How common is life in the universe?"
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“我们来自哪里？”
17:14
"Where did we come from?"
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和诸如此类的问题。
17:16
and questions like that.
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17:20
Let me end this with
an apocryphal quote from Einstein.
an apocryphal quote from Einstein.
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让我引用一句可能是爱因斯坦
说过的话来结束这次演讲。
说过的话来结束这次演讲。
17:23
[You can live as if
everything is a miracle,
everything is a miracle,
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【你可以把一切当奇迹来活，
你也可以无视任何奇迹。】
17:25
or you can live as if
nothing is a miracle.]
nothing is a miracle.]
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这是你的选择。
17:28
It's your choice.
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17:30
You can focus on the bad,
you can focus on the scary,
you can focus on the scary,
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你可以关注坏事情，
你可以关注可怕的事情，
你可以关注可怕的事情，
当然有很多可怕的事情。
17:33
and certainly there's
a lot of scary out there.
a lot of scary out there.
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17:36
But use 10 percent of your brain
to focus on that, or maybe 20 percent,
to focus on that, or maybe 20 percent,
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4732
但用你大脑的10%，或者20%，
或者30%来专注这个问题。
17:40
or maybe 30 percent.
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1826
17:43
But just remember,
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但记住，
我们生活在一个充满
奇迹，千变万化的时代。
奇迹，千变万化的时代。
17:45
we really are living in an age
of miracle and wonder.
of miracle and wonder.
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17:48
We're lucky to be alive today.
We're lucky to see this stuff.
We're lucky to see this stuff.
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我们有幸活在如今的时代，
有幸看到这些东西。
有幸看到这些东西。
我们很幸运能够与像在这个房间里
17:51
We're lucky to be able to interact
with folks like the folks
with folks like the folks
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打造了这些东西的人们互动。
17:54
who are building
all the stuff in this room.
all the stuff in this room.
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2110
17:57
So thank you to all of you,
for all you do.
for all you do.
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感谢你们所有人，
感谢你们所做的一切。
感谢你们所做的一切。
18:01
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Juan Enriquez - FuturistJuan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society.
Why you should listen
A broad thinker who studies the intersections of these fields, Enriquez has a talent for bridging disciplines to build a coherent look ahead. He is the managing director of Excel Venture Management, a life sciences VC firm. He recently published (with Steve Gullans) Evolving Ourselves: How Unnatural Selection and Nonrandom Mutation Are Shaping Life on Earth. The book describes a world where humans increasingly shape their environment, themselves and other species.
Enriquez is a member of the board of Synthetic Genomics, which recently introduced the smallest synthetic living cell. Called “JCVI-syn 3.0,” it has 473 genes (about half the previous smallest cell). The organism would die if one of the genes is removed. In other words, this is the minimum genetic instruction set for a living organism.
Juan Enriquez | Speaker | TED.com