TED2006
Bill Joy: What I'm worried about, what I'm excited about
比尔·乔伊思考未来
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技术大亨兼未来学家比尔·乔伊分享他对人类发展的几个担忧，以及在未来医疗、教育和科技领域的若干希望所在。
Bill Joy - Technologist and futurist
The co-founder of Sun Microsystems, Bill Joy has, in recent years, turned his attention to the biggest questions facing humanity: Where are we going? What could go wrong? What's the next great thing? Full bio
The co-founder of Sun Microsystems, Bill Joy has, in recent years, turned his attention to the biggest questions facing humanity: Where are we going? What could go wrong? What's the next great thing? Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
What technology can we really apply to reducing global poverty?
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什么技术可以真正帮助我们减少全球贫困？
00:24
And what I found was quite surprising.
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我找到的答案让我颇为吃惊。
00:28
We started looking at things like death rates in the 20th century,
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我们在二十世纪开始关注死亡率这样的事情，
00:31
and how they'd been improved, and very simple things turned out.
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以及如何改善这些指标。找到的答案其实很简单。
00:34
You'd think maybe antibiotics made more difference than clean water,
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你也许认为抗生素所做的贡献大于净水，
00:37
but it's actually the opposite.
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其实答案恰恰相反。
00:40
And so very simple things -- off-the-shelf technologies
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所以很简单的事物，那些能很容易在早期的网络上
00:43
that we could easily find on the then-early Web --
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找到的现成的技术，
00:48
would clearly make a huge difference to that problem.
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就能解决问题。
00:53
But I also, in looking at more powerful technologies
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与此同时，当我开始关注更加高级的技术，
00:57
and nanotechnology and genetic engineering and other new emerging
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像纳米技术、基因工程以及其他一些新兴的
01:02
kind of digital technologies, became very concerned
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数字技术，我开始变得非常担心，
01:06
about the potential for abuse.
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担心这些技术将来会被滥用。
01:10
If you think about it, in history, a long, long time ago
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想一想历史上，很久很久以前，
01:15
we dealt with the problem of an individual abusing another individual.
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我们要解决人类个体之间相互虐待的问题，
01:18
We came up with something -- the Ten Commandments: Thou shalt not kill.
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于是摩西十诫应运而生：你不能杀人。
01:21
That's a, kind of a one-on-one thing.
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那时还是一对一的事情。
01:23
We organized into cities. We had many people.
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然后人们聚合成很多城邦，从此很多人生活在一起。
01:27
And to keep the many from tyrannizing the one,
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为了防止很多人欺负一个人，
01:31
we came up with concepts like individual liberty.
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人们又发明了“个人自由”这一概念，
01:35
And then, to have to deal with large groups,
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再后来，为了对付更大的社会群体，
01:36
say, at the nation-state level,
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比如说国家之间，
01:39
and we had to have mutual non-aggression,
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人们就必须制定互不侵犯协定，
01:41
or through a series of conflicts, we eventually came to
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或者在经历了一系列的冲突之后，最终达成
01:45
a rough international bargain to largely keep the peace.
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一个简要的国际合约来维护基本的和平。
01:51
But now we have a new situation, really what people call
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今天我们又有了新的挑战，人们认为这是个
01:56
an asymmetric situation, where technology is so powerful
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不对称的形势。技术已经发展得非常强大，
01:59
that it extends beyond a nation-state.
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已经超越了国界。
02:03
It's not the nation-states that have potential access
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大规模杀伤性武器不再只是被控制在
02:06
to mass destruction, but individuals.
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国家的手中，而有可能被个人掌控。
02:11
And this is a consequence of the fact that these new technologies tend to be digital.
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这是新技术数字化的一个直接后果。
02:16
We saw genome sequences.
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我们都见过基因组序列，
02:20
You can download the gene sequences
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如果你想要知道病原体的基因序列，
02:21
of pathogens off the Internet if you want to,
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你可以从因特网下载到。
02:25
and clearly someone recently -- I saw in a science magazine --
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而且我从《科学》杂志上看到，最近就有人这么做了。
02:30
they said, well, the 1918 flu is too dangerous to FedEx around.
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嗯——，1918年的流感病毒用联邦快递（FedEx）传播也许太危险了些。
02:35
If people want to use it in their labs for working on research,
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如果你想用这些基因组在实验室里做研究，
02:38
just reconstruct it yourself,
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只要自己进行重组就可以了，
02:41
because, you know, it might break in FedEx.
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因为我们都知道联邦快递可能会毁掉这些基因组。
02:45
So that this is possible to do this is not deniable.
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这也就是说这件事情的可行性已经毋庸置疑了，
02:50
So individuals in small groups super-empowered by access to these
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那些手中掌握着此类自我复制技术的人们
02:55
kinds of self-replicating technologies, whether it be biological
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就有可能对世界构成威胁，无论是生物技术
03:00
or other, are clearly a danger in our world.
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还是其他技术。
03:03
And the danger is that they can cause roughly what's a pandemic.
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危险的是这些技术可能引发大规模的流行疾病，
03:07
And we really don't have experience with pandemics,
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而我们人类在对付流行疾病方面的确没什么经验，
03:10
and we're also not very good as a society at acting
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而且对于这些并没有直接和一目了然答案的问题，
03:13
to things we don't have direct and sort of gut-level experience with.
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我们也不擅长作为一个整体来行动。
03:17
So it's not in our nature to pre-act.
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也就是说未雨绸缪并不是我们的天性。
03:21
And in this case, piling on more technology doesn't solve the problem,
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这种情况下，发明更多的技术并不能解决问题，
03:26
because it only super-empowers people more.
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因为这只能让人类能的本领变得越发强大。
03:29
So the solution has to be, as people like Russell and Einstein
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所以解决方案就在于，正像卢梭和爱因斯坦等人
03:33
and others imagine in a conversation that existed
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在20世纪初在一种更强形式的对话中
03:35
in a much stronger form, I think, early in the 20th century,
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提到的一样，
03:39
that the solution had to be not just the head but the heart.
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解决方案必须不光存在于脑中，而且在心中，
03:42
You know, public policy and moral progress.
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也就是我们通常说的政策和道德的发展进步。
03:47
The bargain that gives us civilization is a bargain to not use power.
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人类文明正是在避免使用过多权力的前提下建立起来的。
03:53
We get our individual rights by society protecting us from others
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个人权利之所以得到保障，就是因为社会通过法律规定了
03:56
not doing everything they can do but largely doing only what is legal.
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什么是合法的行为，从而防止人们为所欲为。
04:01
And so to limit the danger of these new things, we have to limit,
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因此要想最终控制这些新事物带来的潜在危险，我们就必须
04:06
ultimately, the ability of individuals
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将有条件接触那些有大规模破坏能力的
04:08
to have access, essentially, to pandemic power.
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群体的能力控制在一定的限度之内。
04:11
We also have to have sensible defense, because no limitation
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我们也必须同时具有一定的防卫能力，因为没有什么限制
04:15
is going to prevent a crazy person from doing something.
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是能够真正阻止一个失去理智的人做任何疯狂的事情的。
04:18
And you know, and the troubling thing is that
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而且大家也知道，最头疼的事情是
04:20
it's much easier to do something bad than to defend
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干坏事情要比对所有坏事进行防御
04:22
against all possible bad things,
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要容易得多。
04:24
so the offensive uses really have an asymmetric advantage.
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因此进行攻击（相对防御而言）的确是有一些“非对称”优势的。
04:28
So these are the kind of thoughts I was thinking in 1999 and 2000,
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以上这些就是我在1999和2000年所想到的。
04:32
and my friends told me I was getting really depressed,
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我的朋友告诉我说我那时候变得十分忧郁，
04:34
and they were really worried about me.
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他们都很替我担心。
04:36
And then I signed a book contract to write more gloomy thoughts about this
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在那之后我又签了一份约稿，要把这些让人忧郁的想法结集出版，
04:39
and moved into a hotel room in New York
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为此我住进了纽约的一家酒店，
04:41
with one room full of books on the Plague,
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酒店的房间里堆满了关于那些想法的书籍，
04:45
and you know, nuclear bombs exploding in New York
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还有大家都知道的在纽约发生的核炸弹爆炸，
04:48
where I would be within the circle, and so on.
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就发生在离我不远的地方，诸如此类。
04:51
And then I was there on September 11th,
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然后就是9.11，当时我就在那里。
04:55
and I stood in the streets with everyone.
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我跟所有人一样站在街头。
04:56
And it was quite an experience to be there.
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那可是个相当难忘的经历。
04:58
I got up the next morning and walked out of the city,
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我第二天早晨起来后走在城市当中，
05:01
and all the sanitation trucks were parked on Houston Street
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所有的环卫车辆集结在休斯顿大街，
05:04
and ready to go down and start taking the rubble away.
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准备前往出事地点清理那些爆炸垃圾，
05:06
And I walked down the middle, up to the train station,
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我一路走到地铁车站，
05:08
and everything below 14th Street was closed.
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14街以下所有的街头店铺都关闭了。
05:11
It was quite a compelling experience, but not really, I suppose,
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这确实是一次不小的经历，但我想对于我这个
05:15
a surprise to someone who'd had his room full of the books.
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拥有一屋子这类书籍的人来说也许并不应该感到那么意外。
05:18
It was always a surprise that it happened then and there,
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大家会对偶发事件会感到惊讶
05:22
but it wasn't a surprise that it happened at all.
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但这件事情迟早会发生，这本身并不是个意外。
05:26
And everyone then started writing about this.
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在那之后所有人都开始谈论这件事情，
05:28
Thousands of people started writing about this.
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成千上万的人开始动笔写这件事情。
05:29
And I eventually abandoned the book, and then Chris called me
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我最终放弃了那本书的写作，接着克里斯给我打电话
05:31
to talk at the conference. I really don't talk about this anymore
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让我在这个大会上发言。我实在是不想再讨论这件事情，
05:34
because, you know, there's enough frustrating and depressing things going on.
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因为我们都知道，周围已经有足够多让我们沮丧和忧郁的事情了。
05:39
But I agreed to come and say a few things about this.
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但我还是答应来这里讲几件与此相关的事情。
05:42
And I would say that we can't give up the rule of law
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我要说：我们不能放弃
05:45
to fight an asymmetric threat, which is what we seem to be doing
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对抗这种不对称威胁的原则， 我们也正在做着，
05:49
because of the present, the people that are in power,
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因为当前的状况， 目前的当权者
05:54
because that's to give up the thing that makes civilization.
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因为他们在放弃人类文明的保障。
05:59
And we can't fight the threat in the kind of stupid way we're doing,
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我们也不能使用愚蠢的方法来赢得这场战争，
06:02
because a million-dollar act
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因为一个百万美元的提案
06:04
causes a billion dollars of damage, causes a trillion dollar response
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可能引发一亿美元的损失，继而引发一万亿美元的响应救援，
06:07
which is largely ineffective and arguably, probably almost certainly,
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而这些救援大部分是低效而有争议的，基本上可以肯定地说，
06:10
has made the problem worse.
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会让原有的问题雪上加霜。
06:12
So we can't fight the thing with a million-to-one cost,
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也就是说，我们不能用1百万比1的付出和
06:17
one-to-a-million cost-benefit ratio.
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1比1百万的收益来解决问题。
06:24
So after giving up on the book -- and I had the great honor
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在我放弃了写那本书的计划之后，我很荣幸
06:29
to be able to join Kleiner Perkins about a year ago,
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在大约一年前开始跟Kleiner Perkins一起
06:33
and to work through venture capital on the innovative side,
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致力于一些创新发明的风险投资，
06:40
and to try to find some innovations that could address what I saw as
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希望能找到一些创新项目来帮助解决
06:44
some of these big problems.
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一些在我看来是大问题的问题。
06:46
Things where, you know, a factor of 10 difference
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对于这些问题，我们都知道的，方法上哪怕只有十分的差异
06:49
can make a factor of 1,000 difference in the outcome.
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都可能导致在结果上千分的差异。
06:53
I've been amazed in the last year at the incredible quality
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过去一年里我不断地被送到我桌面上来的
06:56
and excitement of the innovations that have come across my desk.
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创新成果的质量和让人兴奋的程度感到惊讶，
07:01
It's overwhelming at times. I'm very thankful for Google and Wikipedia
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有时候甚至让我彻底折服。感谢Google和Wikipedia,
07:04
so I can understand at least a little of what people are talking about
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至少能帮助我理解那些来找我的
07:08
who come through the doors.
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人们所说的是什么。
07:10
But I wanted to share with you three areas
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但我今天想要分享让我最为兴奋的
07:13
that I'm particularly excited about and that relate to the problems
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三个领域，这三个领域跟我给Wired写的文章里
07:16
that I was talking about in the Wired article.
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提到的事情是相关的。
07:21
The first is this whole area of education,
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第一个领域是教育。
07:23
and it really relates to what Nicholas was talking about with a $100 computer.
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这个领域跟Nicholas所提到的”百元电脑“密切相关。
07:27
And that is to say that there's a lot of legs left in Moore's Law.
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也就是说摩尔定律其实还有很大的发展空间
07:31
The most advanced transistors today are at 65 nanometers,
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如今最先进的晶体管只有65纳米，
07:35
and we've seen, and I've had the pleasure to invest
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我们也看到，事实上我甚至有幸投资这样的一些公司，
07:38
in, companies that give me great confidence that we'll extend Moore's Law
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这些公司让我确信我们可以将摩尔定律加以扩展，
07:44
all the way down to roughly the 10 nanometer scale.
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一直扩展到大约10纳米左右的范围。
07:47
Another factor of, say, six in dimensional reduction,
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尺寸每缩小6倍，
07:53
which should give us about another factor of 100 in raw improvement
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就能使芯片的效率提高大约100倍。
07:58
in what the chips can do. And so, to put that in practical terms,
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说的实际一些：
08:03
if something costs about 1,000 dollars today,
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今天成本是一千元的东西，
08:07
say, the best personal computer you can buy, that might be its cost,
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比如说现在能买到的最好的个人电脑大约就是这个价钱，
08:12
I think we can have that in 2020 for 10 dollars. Okay?
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那么到了2020年它的成本就变成了10块钱，对吧？
08:18
Now, just imagine what that $100 computer will be in 2020
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那么设想一下到那个时候用一百元的电脑
08:23
as a tool for education.
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作为教育工具将会是什么样的情形。
08:25
I think the challenge for us is --
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我想对我们来说真正的挑战，
08:27
I'm very certain that that will happen, the challenge is,
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我相当肯定这是会发生的，真正的挑战就是，
08:29
will we develop the kind of educational tools and things with the net
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我们能否开发出合适的教育工具，在互联网的帮助下，
08:34
to let us take advantage of that device?
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能让我们充分发挥硬件的效率？
08:37
I'd argue today that we have incredibly powerful computers,
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我个人认为：我们有强大得让人难以置信的计算机硬件，
08:41
but we don't have very good software for them.
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但我们还没有很好的软件来充分利用这些计算机。
08:43
And it's only in retrospect, after the better software comes along,
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每次都是当新的软件出来以后，
08:46
and you take it and you run it on a ten-year-old machine, you say,
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我们把它装在十年前的机器上，然后你惊讶的发现
08:48
God, the machine was that fast?
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天啊，那台机器原来有那么快啊？
08:50
I remember when they took the Apple Mac interface
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我记得当他们把Apple Mac的界面
08:52
and they put it back on the Apple II.
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重新装到Apple II上去，
08:55
The Apple II was perfectly capable of running that kind of interface,
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Apple II 能够完全正常的运行那样的界面，
08:58
we just didn't know how to do it at the time.
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我们当时只是不知道该怎么去做。
09:01
So given that we know and should believe --
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所以我们知道，并且应该相信，
09:03
because Moore's Law's been, like, a constant,
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由于摩尔定律就像是个常数，
09:06
I mean, it's just been very predictable progress
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也就是说受它影响，技术的进步在过去的40年左右的时间里
09:09
over the last 40 years or whatever.
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是相当有预知性的。
09:12
We can know what the computers are going to be like in 2020.
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我们可以预测出2020年的计算机会是什么样子。
09:16
It's great that we have initiatives to say,
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如果我们能够争取主动，
09:18
let's go create the education and educate people in the world,
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致力于教育发展，努力去教育周围的人们，
09:21
because that's a great force for peace.
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这将会是一件大好事，因为教育是制造和平的强有力工具。
09:23
And we can give everyone in the world a $100 computer
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而且我们能够在15年后给每个人一台
09:26
or a $10 computer in the next 15 years.
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一百块钱或者10块钱的电脑。
09:31
The second area that I'm focusing on is the environmental problem,
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第二个领域是对环境问题的关注，
09:36
because that's clearly going to put a lot of pressure on this world.
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因为很明显这个问题将给这个世界施加很多压力。
09:40
We'll hear a lot more about that from Al Gore very shortly.
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我们马上将会听到Al Gore来谈论这个问题。
09:44
The thing that we see as the kind of Moore's Law trend
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在这个领域能遵循摩尔定律来
09:47
that's driving improvement in our ability to address
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提高我们解决环境问题的能力
09:50
the environmental problem is new materials.
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的技术则是新兴材料的应用。
09:54
We have a challenge, because the urban population is growing
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然而我们有个严峻的挑战，因为在本世纪
09:58
in this century from two billion to six billion
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短短的一段时间内，城市人口已经从
10:01
in a very short amount of time. People are moving to the cities.
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20亿增加到了60亿。人们在往城市迁徙。
10:03
They all need clean water, they need energy, they need transportation,
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城市需要干净的水源，需要能量，需要便利的交通，
10:06
and we want them to develop in a green way.
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而我们希望这些都能在”绿色“的基础上发展起来。
10:10
We're reasonably efficient in the industrial sectors.
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我们在工业界的环保做的还是相对有效的，
10:12
We've made improvements in energy and resource efficiency,
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在能源和资源的有效利用方面取得了不少进步，
10:15
but the consumer sector, especially in America, is very inefficient.
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然而在消费领域，尤其是在美国，能源利用效率很低。
10:19
But these new materials bring such incredible innovations
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但这些新材料的出现带来了令人难以置信的革新，
10:23
that there's a strong basis for hope that these things
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从而让我们很有理由相信这些新生事物将会
10:27
will be so profitable that they can be brought to the market.
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带来很大的收益，从而很快被市场化。
10:29
And I want to give you a specific example of a new material
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我想跟各位分享一个十五年前发现的
10:32
that was discovered 15 years ago.
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新物质的具体例子。
10:35
If we take carbon nanotubes, you know, Iijima discovered them in 1991,
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大家都知道碳纳米管是lijima在1991年发现的。
10:40
they just have incredible properties.
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这种材料有着优秀的特性，
10:42
And these are the kinds of things we're going to discover
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这些特性是技术发展到
10:43
as we start to engineer at the nano scale.
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纳米级的时候才能发现的。
10:46
Their strength: they're almost the strongest material,
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这些材料的优势是：它们几乎是最强壮的,
10:49
tensile strength material known.
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在已知的伸张力材料中最强的。
10:52
They're very, very stiff. They stretch very, very little.
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它们非常僵硬，拉伸程度非常非常小。
10:57
In two dimensions, if you make, like, a fabric out of them,
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在二维情况下，比如说用它们来做布料，
11:00
they're 30 times stronger than Kevlar.
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它们要比纤维B坚固30倍。
11:03
And if you make a three-dimensional structure, like a buckyball,
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如果你要用它们来做三维物体，比如说巴基球，
11:06
they have all sorts of incredible properties.
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它们则拥有各种令人难以置信的优秀特性。
11:08
If you shoot a particle at them and knock a hole in them,
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如果你用一个颗粒物质在它们表面上射一个洞，
11:11
they repair themselves; they go zip and they repair the hole
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它们会进行自我修复。它们会在几个飞秒之内
11:14
in femtoseconds, which is not -- is really quick.
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完成修复，即便不是飞秒，那速度也够快的
11:17
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
11:20
If you shine a light on them, they produce electricity.
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如果你用光照射它们，它们则会产生电流。
11:24
In fact, if you flash them with a camera they catch on fire.
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事实上，如果你用照相机的闪光灯照，它们会起火。
11:27
If you put electricity on them, they emit light.
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如果你给它们通电，它们会发光。
11:31
If you run current through them, you can run 1,000 times more current
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如果你让它们导电，它们可以携带的电流
11:34
through one of these than through a piece of metal.
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是一块金属所携带电流的1000倍。
11:38
You can make both p- and n-type semiconductors,
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你可以用它们来做p型或n型半导体，
11:41
which means you can make transistors out of them.
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也就是说你可以用它们来制造晶体管。
11:43
They conduct heat along their length but not across --
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它们在长度方向上导热，而不是纵向
11:46
well, there is no width, but not in the other direction
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事实上它们并没有宽度，如果你把它们堆起来
11:48
if you stack them up; that's a property of carbon fiber also.
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它们不会朝另一个方向导热。这也是碳纤维的一个特性。
11:54
If you put particles in them, and they go shooting out the tip --
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如果你把颗粒物质放到它们里面，颗粒们就会从一端射出，
11:57
they're like miniature linear accelerators or electron guns.
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就像一个小型的线性加速器或者电子枪。
12:00
The inside of the nanotubes is so small --
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纳米管的内部是非常小的，
12:03
the smallest ones are 0.7 nanometers --
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最小的也就0.7纳米，
12:05
that it's basically a quantum world.
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这基本上就是个量子世界。
12:07
It's a strange place inside a nanotube.
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纳米管内部的确是个奇怪的地方。
12:10
And so we begin to see, and we've seen business plans already,
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于是我们开始看到一些商业计划已经开始形成，
12:13
where the kind of things Lisa Randall's talking about are in there.
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就像是Lisa Randall的演讲中所提到的那些。
12:16
I had one business plan where I was trying to learn more about
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在我的一个商业计划中，我试图了解更多关于
12:18
Witten's cosmic dimension strings to try to understand
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Witten的宇宙弦维理论，从而更好的理解
12:21
what the phenomenon was going on in this proposed nanomaterial.
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这些纳米材料内部究竟发生的是什么现象。
12:24
So inside of a nanotube, we're really at the limit here.
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对纳米管内部的情况我们了解的很有限。
12:30
So what we see is with these and other new materials
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对于这些以及其他一些新材料我们所能看到的是
12:34
that we can do things with different properties -- lighter, stronger --
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我们能利用它们的一些特殊性质，比如更轻、更坚固，来做一些事情，
12:38
and apply these new materials to the environmental problems.
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然后把这些新材料应用到解决环境问题上来。
12:44
New materials that can make water,
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比如可以合成水的材料，
12:45
new materials that can make fuel cells work better,
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可以提高燃料电池性能的材料，
12:47
new materials that catalyze chemical reactions,
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可以催化化学反应，从而
12:51
that cut pollution and so on.
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减少污染的材料，等等。
12:54
Ethanol -- new ways of making ethanol.
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还有乙醇，制造乙醇的新方法，
12:57
New ways of making electric transportation.
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实现电子交通工具的新方法，
13:00
The whole green dream -- because it can be profitable.
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整个的这个”绿色梦想“，因为它是有利可图的。
13:04
And we've dedicated -- we've just raised a new fund,
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而且我们已经开始这方面的努力了：我们刚刚建起一项新的基金，
13:06
we dedicated 100 million dollars to these kinds of investments.
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投入了1亿美元对这类项目进行投资。
13:09
We believe that Genentech, the Compaq, the Lotus, the Sun,
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我们相信这些领域中类似Genetech,Compaq,Lotus,Sun,
13:13
the Netscape, the Amazon, the Google in these fields
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Netscape, Amazon以及Google
13:17
are yet to be found, because this materials revolution
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这样的(具有带头羊作用)公司尚待建立，因为这些新材料的革新®
13:20
will drive these things forward.
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会推动这些领域的各项事业向前发展
13:24
The third area that we're working on,
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第三个让我们感兴趣的领域，
13:26
and we just announced last week -- we were all in New York.
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我们上周刚刚在纽约宣布的，
13:30
We raised 200 million dollars in a specialty fund
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我们募集了2亿美元建立了一个
13:36
to work on a pandemic in biodefense.
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用来对付生物防御系统流行疾病的特殊基金。
13:40
And to give you an idea of the last fund that Kleiner raised
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Kleiliner最近募集的一笔基金是4亿美元，
13:43
was a $400 million fund, so this for us is a very substantial fund.
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这对我们来说是一笔很重要的资金。
13:48
And what we did, over the last few months -- well, a few months ago,
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我们近几个月来，实际上是几个月之前，所做的事情，
13:52
Ray Kurzweil and I wrote an op-ed in the New York Times
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Ray Kurzweil 和我为纽约时报写了一篇特稿，
13:55
about how publishing the 1918 genome was very dangerous.
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是关于1918年公布基因组序列这件事是多么的危险。
13:58
And John Doerr and Brook and others got concerned, [unclear],
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John Doerr，Brook和其他一些人变得担忧起来，
14:02
and we started looking around at what the world was doing
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然后我们开始检视当时的人们是如何
14:06
about being prepared for a pandemic. And we saw a lot of gaps.
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为流行病做准备的。我们发现了很多纰漏。
14:11
And so we asked ourselves, you know, can we find innovative things
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然后我们开始问自己，我们能否找到新的方法
14:15
that will go fill these gaps? And Brooks told me in a break here,
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来填补这些漏洞呢？Brooks有一次在Ted大会的间歇告诉我说，
14:19
he said he's found so much stuff he can't sleep,
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他发现了很多让他睡不着觉的东西，
14:21
because there's so many great technologies out there,
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有很多很好的技术已经出现，
14:24
we're essentially buried. And we need them, you know.
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我们实际上已经被它们淹没了。而我们的确需要它们。
14:27
We have one antiviral that people are talking about stockpiling
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有一种抗病毒药是人们一直以来考虑囤积，
14:30
that still works, roughly. That's Tamiflu.
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也是至今依然发挥效用的，它就是Tamiflu。
14:33
But Tamiflu -- the virus is resistant. It is resistant to Tamiflu.
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但是病毒对Tamiflu是有抗药性的。
14:38
We've discovered with AIDS we need cocktails to work well
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在爱滋病的研究中我们已经发现鸡尾酒疗法的效果不错，
14:42
so that the viral resistance -- we need several anti-virals.
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就是说我们需要若干种抗病毒物质共同发挥作用。
14:45
We need better surveillance.
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我们需要更好的监控系统，
14:47
We need networks that can find out what's going on.
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我们需要能发现事情征兆的网络。
14:50
We need rapid diagnostics so that we can tell if somebody has
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我们需要快速的诊断，这样我们就可以判断患者
14:54
a strain of flu which we have only identified very recently.
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是否感染了最近才被发现的新的流感病毒。
14:58
We've got to be able to make the rapid diagnostics quickly.
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我们必须能够进行快速的诊断。
15:00
We need new anti-virals and cocktails. We need new kinds of vaccines.
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我们需要新的抗病毒药和鸡尾酒配方。我们需要新的疫苗类型。
15:03
Vaccines that are broad spectrum.
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更加通用的疫苗，
15:05
Vaccines that we can manufacture quickly.
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生产得更快的疫苗，
15:09
Cocktails, more polyvalent vaccines.
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多价态的鸡尾酒疫苗。
15:11
You normally get a trivalent vaccine against three possible strains.
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你通常能见到三价的疫苗，用来抵抗三种疾病感染。
15:14
We need -- we don't know where this thing is going.
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我们还不知道以后将会如何，
15:17
We believe that if we could fill these 10 gaps,
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但我们相信如果我们能够填补10个这样的空白，
15:20
we have a chance to help really reduce the risk of a pandemic.
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我们就有机会真正降低流行病的风险，
15:26
And the difference between a normal flu season and a pandemic
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正常的季节性流感和一场流行病带来的死亡率
15:30
is about a factor of 1,000 in deaths
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的差别大约在1000这个数量级上，
15:33
and certainly enormous economic impact.
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这当然伴随着经济上的巨大影响。
15:36
So we're very excited because we think we can fund 10,
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因此在接下来的几年努力中，如果我们能为10个项目进行投资，
15:39
or speed up 10 projects and see them come to market
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或者帮助10个项目尽快投入市场，
15:43
in the next couple years that will address this.
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这将会让我们非常兴奋。
15:46
So if we can address, use technology, help address education,
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如果我们能利用技术来解决教育问题，
15:49
help address the environment, help address the pandemic,
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环境问题和流行病问题，
15:52
does that solve the larger problem that I was talking about
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那么我们能否解决我在Wired文章中
15:56
in the Wired article? And I'm afraid the answer is really no,
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提到的更大的问题呢？答案恐怕是”不能“。
16:01
because you can't solve a problem with the management of technology
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因为你不能用技术来解决
16:05
with more technology.
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由于技术管理而产生的问题。
16:08
If we let an unlimited amount of power loose, then we will --
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如果我们放松对权力的控制，赋予个人无限制的权力，
16:13
a very small number of people will be able to abuse it.
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那么一小部分人将会滥用这些权力。
16:15
We can't fight at a million-to-one disadvantage.
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我们无法打赢一场1百万比1这样的劣势的战争，
16:19
So what we need to do is, we need better policy.
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所以我们需要的就是更好的政策。
16:22
And for example, some things we could do
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例如，我们能做的一件事情就是利用市场规律
16:25
that would be policy solutions which are not really in the political air right now
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来建立起一些政策法规。这样的法规现在并不存在，
16:29
but perhaps with the change of administration would be -- use markets.
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但也许下一届政府能够加以实施。
16:33
Markets are a very strong force.
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市场是一个很强大的力量，
16:35
For example, rather than trying to regulate away problems,
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举个例子，与其禁止一些行为的发生，
16:38
which probably won't work, if we could price
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这样做往往没有好的效果，如果我们能够
16:40
into the cost of doing business, the cost of catastrophe,
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把灾难后果引发的成本附加到做生意的成本中，
16:45
so that people who are doing things that had a higher cost of catastrophe
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这样人们在做事情的时候就要承担更高的风险成本，
16:48
would have to take insurance against that risk.
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那么他们就会为那些风险进行投保。
16:51
So if you wanted to put a drug on the market you could put it on.
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如果你想让一种新药上市，你可以这么做，
16:53
But it wouldn't have to be approved by regulators;
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你不需要通过监察机构的鉴定，
16:55
you'd have to convince an actuary that it would be safe.
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但你需要说服你的保险师它是安全的。
16:59
And if you apply the notion of insurance more broadly,
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如果你把保险的概念推而广之，
17:02
you can use a more powerful force, a market force,
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你可以利用一个更加强有力的力量，市场的力量
17:05
to provide feedback.
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来取得反馈。
17:07
How could you keep the law?
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我们如何才能让法律作用常在？
17:08
I think the law would be a really good thing to keep.
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我认为法律确实是我们应该保持并遵守的。
17:10
Well, you have to hold people accountable.
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你必须保证人们是可以信赖的。
17:12
The law requires accountability.
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法律规定了每个人的责任和义务。
17:14
Today scientists, technologists, businessmen, engineers
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如今科学家、科技人员、商人、工程师
17:17
don't have any personal responsibility
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对他们的行为产生的后果
17:19
for the consequences of their actions.
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不需要负什么个人责任。
17:21
So if you tie that -- you have to tie that back with the law.
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你必须把这些责任重新定义在法律中。
17:25
And finally, I think we have to do something that's not really --
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最后，我认为我们必须，
17:29
it's almost unacceptable to say this -- which,
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说起来几乎让人难以接受，
17:30
we have to begin to design the future.
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我们必须开始设计我们的未来。
17:33
We can't pick the future, but we can steer the future.
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我们不能选择未来，但我们可以掌握和操纵未来。
17:37
Our investment in trying to prevent pandemic flu
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我们在预防流行性疾病上所进行的投入
17:39
is affecting the distribution of possible outcomes.
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将会影响将来可能产生的结果的分布。
17:43
We may not be able to stop it, but the likelihood
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我们也许无法完全消除它们，但如果我们付出努力，
17:45
that it will get past us is lower if we focus on that problem.
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这些疾病从我们眼皮底下溜走的几率将会降低。
17:49
So we can design the future if we choose what kind of things
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因此如果我们能够选择什么是我们希望发生的，
17:53
we want to have happen and not have happen,
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什么不是，然后引导未来向低风险的方向去发展，
17:56
and steer us to a lower-risk place.
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那么我们就可以设计未来了。
17:59
Vice President Gore will talk about how we could steer the climate trajectory
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副总统戈尔将会谈到我们如何去影响气候的变化，
18:05
into a lower probability of catastrophic risk.
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从而降低灾难发生的几率。
18:08
But above all, what we have to do is we have to help the good guys,
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但最重要的是，我们必须帮助那些好人，
18:11
the people on the defensive side,
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那些处在防御位置的人们，
18:13
have an advantage over the people who want to abuse things.
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去赢得优势从而战胜那些滥用技术的人们。
18:17
And what we have to do to do that
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要做到这一点，
18:19
is we have to limit access to certain information.
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我们就必须控制对特定信息的访问权限。
18:22
And growing up as we have, and holding very high
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在我们这个环境下长大，言论的自由被赋予着极高的价值，
18:25
the value of free speech, this is a hard thing for us to accept --
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想做到这一点并不容易，
18:29
for all of us to accept.
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想让所有人接受并不容易。
18:30
It's especially hard for the scientists to accept who still remember,
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尤其是对于科学家来说，他们还记得
18:35
you know, Galileo essentially locked up,
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伽利略是如何被关起来，以及那些
18:37
and who are still fighting this battle against the church.
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今天还在与教会进行斗争的科学工作者。
18:41
But that's the price of having a civilization.
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但这些都是人类文明进程中做付出的代价。
18:46
The price of retaining the rule of law
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维护基本法则的代价就是
18:48
is to limit the access to the great and kind of unbridled power.
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对一些影响过大的权力进行权限控制。
18:53
Thank you.
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谢谢大家。
18:54
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Joy - Technologist and futuristThe co-founder of Sun Microsystems, Bill Joy has, in recent years, turned his attention to the biggest questions facing humanity: Where are we going? What could go wrong? What's the next great thing?
Why you should listen
In 2003, Bill Joy left Sun Microsystems, the computer company he cofounded, with no definite plans. He'd spent the late 1970s and early 1980s working on Berkeley UNIX (he wrote the vi editor), and the next decades building beautiful high-performance workstations at Sun. Always, he'd been a kind of polite engineer-gadfly -- refusing to settle for subpar code or muddled thinking.
In 2000, with a landmark cover story in Wired called "Why the Future Doesn't Need Us," Joy began to share his larger concerns with the world. A careful observer of the nanotech industry that was growing up around his own industry, Joy saw a way forward that, frankly, frightened him. He saw a very plausible future in which our own creations supplanted us -- if not out and out killed us (e.g., the gray goo problem). His proposed solution: Proceed with caution.
Joy's now a partner at KPMG, where he reviews business plans in education, environmental improvement and pandemic defense.
Bill Joy | Speaker | TED.com