TEDSummit 2019
Kelly Wanser: Emergency medicine for our climate fever
凯莉·宛瑟: 治疗全球变暖的应急药物
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Readability: 5.9
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当我们不计后果地向大气中排放温室气体使地球变暖时，一些工业排放的气体也会产生粒子，将阳光反射回太空，从而遏制我们才刚刚开始了解的全球变暖。气候活动家 凯莉·宛瑟（Kelly Wanser）问道：我们能设计出利用这种效应并进一步减少变暖的方法吗？通过这个演讲了解“云层变亮”的承诺和风险，以及它如何帮助我们的气候恢复健康。
Kelly Wanser - Climate innovation activist
Kelly Wanser helps study and invent global-scale technological interventions that could save humanity from the worst effects of climate change. Full bio
Kelly Wanser helps study and invent global-scale technological interventions that could save humanity from the worst effects of climate change. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I'm here to talk to you about something
important that may be new to you.
important that may be new to you.
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今天，我要给各位分享一些
你们或许没听过，却至关重要的事情。
你们或许没听过，却至关重要的事情。
00:17
The governments of the world
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世界各国政府
00:18
are about to conduct
an unintentional experiment
an unintentional experiment
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将要对我们的气候做一个
00:20
on our climate.
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无意的实验。
00:22
In 2020, new rules will require ships
to lower their sulfur emissions
to lower their sulfur emissions
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2020 年，出台了一些新规定，
要求船舶能够处理废气，
或改用更清洁的燃料
或改用更清洁的燃料
00:28
by scrubbing their dirty exhaust
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00:30
or switching to cleaner fuels.
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来降低硫的排放。
00:32
For human health, this is really good,
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对人类健康而言，这是好事，
00:35
but sulfur particles
in the emission of ships
in the emission of ships
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但船舶中的硫粒子排放
00:37
also have an effect on clouds.
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也会对云层产生影响。
00:40
This is a satellite image of marine clouds
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这是美国太平洋西海岸
00:43
off the Pacific West Coast
of the United States.
of the United States.
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的海洋云层的卫星图像。
00:46
The streaks in the clouds
are created by the exhaust from ships.
are created by the exhaust from ships.
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云层中的条纹是由船只
排出的废气造成的。
排出的废气造成的。
00:50
Ships' emissions include
both greenhouse gases,
both greenhouse gases,
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船舶的排放气体包括温室气体，
00:53
which trap heat over long periods of time,
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这些气体会不断积聚热量，
00:55
and particulates like sulfates
that mix with clouds
that mix with clouds
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而硫酸盐等微粒与云层混合后，
00:59
and temporarily make them brighter.
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会暂时使云层变亮。
01:01
Brighter clouds reflect
more sunlight back to space,
more sunlight back to space,
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明亮的云层会把更多的
太阳光反射回太空，
太阳光反射回太空，
01:04
cooling the climate.
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降低温度。
01:07
So in fact,
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所以，事实上，
01:08
humans are currently running
two unintentional experiments
two unintentional experiments
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人类是在对我们的气候进行
两种无意的实验。
01:11
on our climate.
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01:13
In the first one, we're increasing
the concentration of greenhouse gases
the concentration of greenhouse gases
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第一个实验，我们在逐渐
增加温室气体的浓度，
增加温室气体的浓度，
01:17
and gradually warming the earth system.
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慢慢导致全球气候变暖，
01:19
This works something like a fever
in the human body.
in the human body.
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这个过程有点像人体的发烧。
01:23
If the fever remains low,
its effects are mild,
its effects are mild,
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如果发烧的温度比较低，
它的危害还不是很大，
它的危害还不是很大，
01:26
but as the fever rises,
damage grows more severe
damage grows more severe
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但如果发烧的温度升高了，
会带来很大的危害，
会带来很大的危害，
01:29
and eventually devastating.
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并最终导致十分严重的后果。
01:31
We're seeing a little of this now.
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我们现在已经看到了一些这样的情况。
01:34
In our other experiment,
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在我们另一个实验中，
01:35
we're planning to remove
a layer of particles
a layer of particles
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我们正计划移除一层粒子，
01:38
that brighten clouds and shield us
from some of this warming.
from some of this warming.
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使云层变亮，并保护我们
免受气候变暖的影响。
免受气候变暖的影响。
01:42
The effect is strongest
in ocean clouds like these,
in ocean clouds like these,
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像这种效应在海洋云层中最强，
科学家预计明年船舶
硫排放量的减少，
硫排放量的减少，
01:45
and scientists expect the reduction
of sulfur emissions from ships next year
of sulfur emissions from ships next year
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将会导致可测量的全球气候变暖。
01:51
to produce a measurable increase
in global warming.
in global warming.
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01:55
Bit of a shocker?
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让人有些震惊吧？
01:57
In fact, most emissions contain sulfates
that brighten clouds:
that brighten clouds:
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实际上，很多包含硫的排放物
都可以使云层变亮：
都可以使云层变亮：
02:01
coal, diesel exhaust, forest fires.
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煤，柴油废气，森林火灾。
02:06
Scientists estimate that the total
cooling effect from emission particles,
cooling effect from emission particles,
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科学家估计，来自
排放粒子的总冷却效应
排放粒子的总冷却效应
02:09
which they call aerosols
when they're in the climate,
when they're in the climate,
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（这些粒子在大气中被称为气体粒子）
02:13
may be as much as all of the warming
we've experienced up until now.
we've experienced up until now.
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可能和我们到目前为止
所经历的变暖差不多。
所经历的变暖差不多。
02:17
There's a lot of uncertainty
around this effect,
around this effect,
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这种效应存在很大的不确定性，
02:20
and it's one of the major reasons
why we have difficulty predicting climate,
why we have difficulty predicting climate,
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这是我们很难预测气候变化
的主要原因之一，
的主要原因之一，
02:25
but this is cooling that we'll lose
as emissions fall.
as emissions fall.
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但随着排放量下降，
我们将失去这种降温方式。
我们将失去这种降温方式。
02:29
So to be clear, humans
are currently cooling the planet
are currently cooling the planet
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再清楚的解释一下，
人类目前是通过大规模地
人类目前是通过大规模地
02:34
by dispersing particles
into the atmosphere at massive scale.
into the atmosphere at massive scale.
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把废气粒子排放到大气
从而使地球降温的。
从而使地球降温的。
02:38
We just don't know how much,
and we're doing it accidentally.
and we're doing it accidentally.
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我们并不知道降温的程度，
我们只是无心插柳罢了 。
我们只是无心插柳罢了 。
02:42
That's worrying,
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这的确让人担忧，
02:44
but it could mean that we have
a fast-acting way to reduce warming,
a fast-acting way to reduce warming,
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但这也意味着我们有
快速的方法来降温，
快速的方法来降温，
02:47
emergency medicine
for our climate fever if we needed it,
for our climate fever if we needed it,
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如果需要的话，我们有
缓解气候过热的紧急方法，
缓解气候过热的紧急方法，
02:51
and it's a medicine
with origins in nature.
with origins in nature.
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并且这是一种源于自然的方法。
02:56
This is a NASA simulation
of earth's atmosphere,
of earth's atmosphere,
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这 NASA 对地球大气的模拟，
02:59
showing clouds and particles
moving over the planet.
moving over the planet.
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显示了云层和粒子
在地球上的移动情况。
在地球上的移动情况。
03:02
The brightness is the Sun's light
reflecting from particles in clouds,
reflecting from particles in clouds,
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明亮处是云层中粒子反射阳光的部分，
03:06
and this reflective shield
is one of the primary ways
is one of the primary ways
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并且这种反射罩是自然为人类
03:10
that nature keeps the planet
cool enough for humans
cool enough for humans
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和我们已知的所有生物
保持地球足够冷却
保持地球足够冷却
03:13
and all of the life that we know.
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所准备的主要方式之一。
03:15
In 2015, scientists assessed possibilities
for rapidly cooling climate.
for rapidly cooling climate.
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2015 年，科学家评估了
快速冷却气候的可行性。
快速冷却气候的可行性。
03:21
They discounted
things like mirrors in space,
things like mirrors in space,
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他们不看重诸如那些太空镜子，
03:24
ping-pong balls in the ocean,
plastic sheets on the Arctic,
plastic sheets on the Arctic,
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海洋中的乒乓球，
北极的塑料布之类的东西，
北极的塑料布之类的东西，
03:29
and they found
that the most viable approaches
that the most viable approaches
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他们发现最可行的方法
03:31
involved slightly increasing
this atmospheric reflectivity.
this atmospheric reflectivity.
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是略微增加大气的反射率。
03:36
In fact, it's possible that reflecting
just one or two percent more sunlight
just one or two percent more sunlight
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事实上，将从大气中反射
的阳光增加一到两个百分点
的阳光增加一到两个百分点
03:40
from the atmosphere
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可以影响 2 摄氏度的气温，
03:42
could offset two degrees Celsius
or more of warming.
or more of warming.
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甚至更高的升温都是有可能的。
03:47
Now, I'm a technology executive,
not a scientist.
not a scientist.
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我是个技术主管，不是个科学家。
03:51
About a decade ago,
concerned about climate,
concerned about climate,
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大概 10 年前，因为担忧气候问题，
03:54
I started to talk with scientists about
potential countermeasures to warming.
potential countermeasures to warming.
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我开始和科学家们讨论
气候问题的潜在对策。
气候问题的潜在对策。
03:58
These conversations grew
into collaborations
into collaborations
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这些对话发展成了
04:02
that became the Marine
Cloud Brightening Project,
Cloud Brightening Project,
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我一会儿将会讲到的
04:04
which I'll talk about momentarily,
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海洋云层增亮计划的合作项目，
04:06
and the nonprofit policy organization
SilverLining, where I am today.
SilverLining, where I am today.
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和我今天身处的非盈利组织
SilverLining （暗夜曙光）。
SilverLining （暗夜曙光）。
04:11
I work with politicians, researchers,
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我跟政治家，研究者，
04:15
members of the tech industry and others
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科技和其他行业的成员
04:17
to talk about some of these ideas.
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讨论这些想法。
04:20
Early on, I met British
atmospheric scientist John Latham,
atmospheric scientist John Latham,
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早些时候，我遇到了
英国气候学家约翰·莱瑟姆，
英国气候学家约翰·莱瑟姆，
04:23
who proposed cooling the climate
the way that the ships do,
the way that the ships do,
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他提出了一种和船排放废气
同一原理的给气候降温的方式，
同一原理的给气候降温的方式，
04:26
but with a natural source of particles:
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但使用一种天然的微粒来源:
04:28
sea-salt mist from seawater
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海水中的海盐雾，
04:31
sprayed from ships into areas
of susceptible clouds over the ocean.
of susceptible clouds over the ocean.
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从船上喷射到海洋上
易受影响的云层中。
易受影响的云层中。
04:35
The approach became known
by the name I gave it then,
by the name I gave it then,
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这项目因我起的名字“海洋云增亮”
04:38
"marine cloud brightening."
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而为人们所知。
04:39
Early modeling studies suggested
that by deploying marine cloud brightening
that by deploying marine cloud brightening
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早先模型研究显示只需在
10-20% 易受影响
10-20% 易受影响
04:44
in just 10 to 20 percent
of susceptible ocean clouds,
of susceptible ocean clouds,
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的海洋云中部署“海洋云增亮”，
04:47
it might be possible to offset
as much as two degrees Celsius's warming.
as much as two degrees Celsius's warming.
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就可能会抵消多达 2 摄氏度的升温。
04:53
It might even be possible
to brighten clouds in local regions
to brighten clouds in local regions
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它甚至可以通过使部分地区的云层变亮，
04:56
to reduce the impacts caused
by warming ocean surface temperatures.
by warming ocean surface temperatures.
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来减少海洋表面温度上升引发的影响。
05:00
For example, regions
such as the Gulf Atlantic
such as the Gulf Atlantic
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比如，在大西洋海湾等地，
05:03
might be cooled in the months
before a hurricane season
before a hurricane season
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在飓风季来临前的几个月降温，
05:06
to reduce the force of storms.
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可以降低风暴的威力。
05:08
Or, it might be possible to cool waters
flowing onto coral reefs
flowing onto coral reefs
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或者，它也可以冷却流入
受热很强的珊瑚礁的水流，
05:12
overwhelmed by heat stress,
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05:14
like Australia's Great Barrier Reef.
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比如，澳大利亚的大堡礁。
05:16
But these ideas are only theoretical,
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但这些想法只停留在理论层面，
05:19
and brightening marine clouds
is not the only way
is not the only way
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并且增亮海洋云层不是唯一一种
05:22
to increase the reflection
of the sunlight from the atmosphere.
of the sunlight from the atmosphere.
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用来提高太阳光大气反射率的方法。
05:26
Another occurs when large volcanoes
release material with enough force
release material with enough force
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另一种方式是利用大型火山
释放的具有足够的力量物质，
释放的具有足够的力量物质，
可以到达到达大气层
的上层，即平流层。
的上层，即平流层。
05:31
to reach the upper layer
of the atmosphere, the stratosphere.
of the atmosphere, the stratosphere.
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05:34
When Mount Pinatubo erupted in 1991,
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在 1991 年，皮纳图博火山爆发时，
05:38
it released material
into the stratosphere,
into the stratosphere,
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它释放到大气中的物质，
05:40
including sulfates that mix
with the atmosphere to reflect sunlight.
with the atmosphere to reflect sunlight.
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包括与大气混合
可以反射阳光的硫酸盐。
可以反射阳光的硫酸盐。
05:45
This material remained
and circulated around the planet.
and circulated around the planet.
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这些物质仍然存在并在地球上循环。
05:48
It was enough to cool the climate
by over half a degree Celsius
by over half a degree Celsius
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它足以在大约两年的时间中降温
05:52
for about two years.
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约 0.5 摄氏度。
05:56
This cooling led to a striking increase
in Arctic ice cover in 1992,
in Arctic ice cover in 1992,
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这种降温导致 1992 年
北极冰层覆盖率显著增加，
北极冰层覆盖率显著增加，
06:02
which dropped in subsequent years
as the particles fell back to earth.
as the particles fell back to earth.
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然而在随后几年，随着这些粒子
落回地面，冰层覆盖率也随之下降。
落回地面，冰层覆盖率也随之下降。
06:06
But the volcanic phenomenon
led Nobel Prize winner Paul Crutzen
led Nobel Prize winner Paul Crutzen
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但火山现象促使诺贝尔奖得主
保罗·克鲁岑提出了一个想法，
保罗·克鲁岑提出了一个想法，
06:10
to propose the idea that dispersing
particles into the stratosphere
particles into the stratosphere
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即以可控的方式将粒子播撒到平流层，
06:13
in a controlled way might be
a way to counter global warming.
a way to counter global warming.
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可能是解决全球变暖的一种方式。
06:17
Now, this has risks
that we don't understand,
that we don't understand,
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这个措施存在我们尚不清楚的风险，
06:20
including things like
heating up the stratosphere
heating up the stratosphere
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包括加热平流层，
06:23
or damage to the ozone layer.
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或者破坏臭氧层。
06:25
Scientists think that there could be
safe approaches to this,
safe approaches to this,
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科学家认为会有安全的方式来实现，
06:30
but is this really where we are?
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但我们真的能做到吗？
06:31
Is this really worth considering?
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这真的值得考虑吗？
06:35
This is a simulation
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这个来自
06:36
from the US National Center
for Atmospheric Research
for Atmospheric Research
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美国国家大气研究中心
06:39
global climate model showing,
earth surface temperatures through 2100.
earth surface temperatures through 2100.
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的全球气候模型显示了到
2100 年的地球表面温度。
2100 年的地球表面温度。
06:43
The globe on the left visualizes
our current trajectory,
our current trajectory,
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左边的显示了地球
按目前轨迹的情况，
按目前轨迹的情况，
06:47
and on the right, a world where particles
are introduced into the stratosphere
are introduced into the stratosphere
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而右边，则是一个 2020 年
微粒被逐渐播撒到
微粒被逐渐播撒到
06:51
gradually in 2020,
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平流层，
06:53
and maintained through 2100.
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并维持到 2100 年的情况。
06:55
Intervention keeps surface temperatures
near those of today,
near those of today,
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干预让表面温度接近目前的水平，
06:59
while without it, temperatures rise
well over three degrees.
well over three degrees.
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而没有干预，温度将上升超过 3 度。
07:04
This could be the difference
between a safe and an unsafe world.
between a safe and an unsafe world.
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这可能是安全和不安全世界的差异。
07:09
So, if there's even a chance
that this could be close to reality,
that this could be close to reality,
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所以，如果存在可能接近现实的机会，
07:13
is this something
we should consider seriously?
we should consider seriously?
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这是我们应该认真考虑的吗？
07:18
Today, there are no capabilities,
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今天，我们现有的能力仍然不足，
07:19
and scientific knowledge
is extremely limited.
is extremely limited.
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相关科学知识非常有限。
07:23
We don't know whether these types
of interventions are even feasible,
of interventions are even feasible,
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我们不知道这种干预是否具有弹性，
07:27
or how to characterize their risks.
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或如何描述它们的风险。
07:30
Researchers hope to explore
some basic questions
some basic questions
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研究者希望找到一些基本问题
07:33
that might help us know
whether or not these might be real options
whether or not these might be real options
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来帮助我们理解这些
是否是真正的选项，
是否是真正的选项，
07:38
or whether we should rule them out.
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还是我们应该排除的选择。
07:40
It requires multiple ways
of studying the climate system,
of studying the climate system,
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这要求多种研究气候系统的方法，
07:44
including computer models
to forecast changes,
to forecast changes,
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包括预测变化的电脑模型，
07:47
analytic techniques like machine learning,
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类似机器学习的分析技术，
07:49
and many types of observations.
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以及很多类型的观测。
07:52
And though it's controversial,
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尽管这存在争议，
07:54
it's also critical that researchers
develop core technologies
develop core technologies
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研究者开发核心技术并进行小规模，
07:58
and perform small-scale,
real-world experiments.
real-world experiments.
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真实世界的实验也很重要。
08:03
There are two research programs
proposing experiments like this.
proposing experiments like this.
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有两个研究项目提出了这样的实验。
08:07
At Harvard, the SCoPEx experiment
would release very small amounts
would release very small amounts
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在哈佛大学，SCoPEx实验
将用气球向平流层
将用气球向平流层
08:11
of sulfates, calcium carbonate and water
into the stratosphere with a balloon,
into the stratosphere with a balloon,
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释放非常少量的硫酸盐、
碳酸钙和水，
碳酸钙和水，
08:17
to study chemistry and physics effects.
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来研究化学和物理效应。
08:20
How much material?
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有多少物质？
08:22
Less than the amount released
in one minute of flight
in one minute of flight
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不到商业航班一分钟内
08:25
from a commercial aircraft.
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的排放量。
08:27
So this is definitely not dangerous,
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所以这当然没有危害，
08:30
and it may not even be scary.
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也谈不上可怕。
08:33
At the University of Washington,
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在华盛顿大学，
08:35
scientists hope to spray
a fine mist of salt water into clouds
a fine mist of salt water into clouds
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科学家们希望在一系列
的陆地和海洋测试中，
的陆地和海洋测试中，
08:39
in a series of land and ocean tests.
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向云层中喷洒一层细盐水雾。
08:41
If those are successful,
this would culminate in experiments
this would culminate in experiments
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如果这些尝试成功了，
我们将可以测量到
我们将可以测量到
08:44
to measurably brighten
an area of clouds over the ocean.
an area of clouds over the ocean.
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海洋上空的云层将变得明亮。
08:48
The marine cloud brightening effort
is the first to develop any technology
is the first to develop any technology
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海洋云层增亮努力是第一个
利用技术来产生微粒，
利用技术来产生微粒，
08:52
for generating aerosols for atmospheric
sunlight reflection in this way.
sunlight reflection in this way.
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以增加大气阳光反射的方式。
08:57
It requires producing
very tiny particles --
very tiny particles --
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这要求生产非常小的微粒——
08:59
think about the mist that comes
out of an asthma inhaler --
out of an asthma inhaler --
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想想哮喘吸入器喷出的雾气——
09:04
at massive scale -- so think
of looking up at a cloud.
of looking up at a cloud.
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扩大规模——想想天上的云朵。
09:08
It's a tricky engineering problem.
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这是个棘手的工程问题。
09:11
So this one nozzle they developed
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这是他们开发的一个喷嘴，
09:13
generates three trillion
particles per second,
particles per second,
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每秒钟能产生 3 万亿微粒，
09:15
80 nanometers in size,
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每一粒有 80 纳米大小，
09:17
from very corrosive saltwater.
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来自腐蚀性很强的盐水。
09:20
It was developed by a team
of retired engineers in Silicon Valley --
of retired engineers in Silicon Valley --
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它是由一群硅谷
的退休工程师开发的——
的退休工程师开发的——
09:24
here they are --
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就是他们——
09:25
working full-time for six years,
without pay, for their grandchildren.
without pay, for their grandchildren.
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6 年全职工作，没有薪水，为了后代。
09:31
It will take a few million dollars
and another year or two
and another year or two
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还需要几百万美元和一到两年的时间
09:34
to develop the full spray system
they need to do these experiments.
they need to do these experiments.
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来开发需要用来做这些实验
的全套喷洒系统。
的全套喷洒系统。
09:38
In other parts of the world,
research efforts are emerging,
research efforts are emerging,
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在世界其他地方，
研究者的努力正在兴起，
研究者的努力正在兴起，
09:42
including small modeling programs
at Beijing Normal University in China,
at Beijing Normal University in China,
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包括北京师范大学的小型建模项目，
09:46
the Indian Institute of Science,
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印度科学研究院，
09:49
a proposed center for climate repair
at Cambridge University in the UK
at Cambridge University in the UK
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英国剑桥大学气候修复中心，
09:53
and the DECIMALS Fund,
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还有DECIMALS基金，
09:56
which sponsors researchers
in global South countries
in global South countries
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资助了全球南部国家的研究人员，
09:58
to study the potential impacts
of these sunlight interventions
of these sunlight interventions
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以研究这些阳光干预措施
对他们所在地区
对他们所在地区
10:01
in their part of the world.
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的潜在影响。
10:03
But all of these programs,
including the experimental ones,
including the experimental ones,
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但所有这些项目，包括实验性的项目，
10:08
lack significant funding.
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缺乏足够的资金。
10:10
And understanding
these interventions is a hard problem.
these interventions is a hard problem.
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但了解这些干预措施是个复杂的问题。
10:13
The earth is a vast, complex system
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地球是个巨大，复杂的系统，
10:15
and we need major investments
in climate models, observations
in climate models, observations
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我们需要大力投资气候模型、观测
10:18
and basic science
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和基础科学
10:20
to be able to predict climate
much better than we can today
much better than we can today
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来获得比今天更好气候预测，
10:24
and manage both our accidental
and any intentional interventions.
and any intentional interventions.
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并管理我们任何有意
或无意的干预措施。
或无意的干预措施。
10:29
And it could be urgent.
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这可能很紧急。
10:32
Recent scientific reports
predict that in the next few decades,
predict that in the next few decades,
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最近的科学报告预测，未来几十年，
10:36
earth's fever is on a path to devastation:
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地球的发热正走向毁灭：
10:38
extreme heat and fires,
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酷热及火灾，
10:41
major loss of ocean life,
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海洋生命的大面积死亡，
10:44
collapse of Arctic ice,
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北极冰崩，
10:47
displacement and suffering
for hundreds of millions of people.
for hundreds of millions of people.
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数亿人口流离失所，饱受苦难。
10:52
The fever could even reach tipping points
where warming takes over
where warming takes over
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此类气候升温甚至会达到
临界点，变成温暖主导，
临界点，变成温暖主导，
10:56
and human efforts are no longer enough
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直到人类的努力再也不能够
10:58
to counter accelerating changes
in natural systems.
in natural systems.
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扭转自然系统的加速变化。
11:01
To prevent this circumstance,
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为了防止这种情况发生，
11:04
the UN's International Panel
on Climate Change predicts
on Climate Change predicts
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联合国气候变化国际小组预测，
11:06
that we need to stop
and even reverse emissions by 2050.
and even reverse emissions by 2050.
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我们需要在 2050 年停止，
甚至逆转温室气体排放。
甚至逆转温室气体排放。
11:11
How? We have to quickly and radically
transform major economic sectors,
transform major economic sectors,
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怎样实现？我们需要主要
经济部门的快速和根本变革，
经济部门的快速和根本变革，
11:15
including energy, construction,
agriculture, transportation and others.
agriculture, transportation and others.
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包括能源，建筑，农业，交通和其他。
11:20
And it is imperative that we do this
as fast as we can.
as fast as we can.
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我们必须尽快做到这一点。
11:25
But our fever is now so high
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但我们地球的发热现在如此之高，
11:27
that climate experts say
we also have to remove
we also have to remove
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以致气候专家说我们还需要移除
11:29
massive quantities of CO2
from the atmosphere,
from the atmosphere,
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大气中的海量二氧化碳，
11:32
possibly 10 times
all of the world's annual emissions,
all of the world's annual emissions,
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可能是世界年排放量的 10 倍，
11:36
in ways that aren't proven yet.
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用还没有验证过的方式。
11:39
Right now, we have slow-moving solutions
to a fast-moving problem.
to a fast-moving problem.
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现在，我们对一个快速变化的问题
有一个缓慢发展的解决方案。
有一个缓慢发展的解决方案。
11:44
Even with the most optimistic assumptions,
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即便用最乐观的预估，
11:46
our exposure to risk
in the next 10 to 30 years
in the next 10 to 30 years
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我们在接下来 10-30 年要面对的风险
11:49
is unacceptably high, in my opinion.
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也是无法承受的，就我的观点而言。
11:52
Could interventions like these
provide fast-acting medicine if we need it
provide fast-acting medicine if we need it
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如果我们需要这样的干预措施来
降低地球的温度，同时从根本上解决问题，
降低地球的温度，同时从根本上解决问题，
11:56
to reduce the earth's fever
while we address its underlying causes?
while we address its underlying causes?
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那么这些干预措施能否
提供快速见效的药物呢？
提供快速见效的药物呢？
12:00
There are real concerns about this idea.
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人们对这些想法存在切实担忧。
12:03
Some people are very worried
that even researching these interventions
that even researching these interventions
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有些人非常担心即便
是研究这些干预措施
是研究这些干预措施
12:06
could provide an excuse to delay efforts
to reduce emissions.
to reduce emissions.
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都可能会给推迟减排努力提供借口。
12:10
This is also known as a moral hazard.
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这里也存在道德风险。
12:14
But, like most medicines,
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但是，就像大部分药品，
12:15
interventions are more dangerous
the more that you do,
the more that you do,
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干预越多越危险，
12:19
so research actually
tends to draw out the fact
tends to draw out the fact
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所以研究者倾向于得提出这个事实，
12:21
that we absolutely,
positively cannot continue
positively cannot continue
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即我们绝对不能继续
12:24
to fill up the atmosphere
with greenhouse gases,
with greenhouse gases,
221
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用温室气体填充大气，
12:27
that these kinds of alternatives are risky
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这些替代方式是有风险的，
12:30
and if we were to use them,
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如果我们使用它们，
12:32
we would need to use
as little as possible.
as little as possible.
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我们需要尽可能少地使用。
12:36
But even so,
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但即便如此，
12:38
could we ever learn enough
about these interventions
about these interventions
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我们能否足够了解这些干预，
12:41
to manage the risk?
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从而用它们来管理风险？
12:43
Who would make decisions
about when and how to intervene?
about when and how to intervene?
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谁来做决定什么时候和如何干预？
12:47
What if some people are worse off,
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如果有些人情况糟糕，
12:50
or they just think they are?
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或者他们这样认为呢？
12:52
These are really hard problems.
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1849
这些都是困难的问题。
12:55
But what really worries me
is that as climate impacts worsen,
is that as climate impacts worsen,
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但真正让我担忧的是
随着气候影响恶化，
随着气候影响恶化，
13:00
leaders will be called on to respond
by any means available.
by any means available.
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各国领导人将会被要求用
现存的各种方式做出反应。
现存的各种方式做出反应。
13:04
I for one don't want them to act
without real information
without real information
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我不希望他们在没有真实信息
13:08
and much better options.
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和更多好的选项的情况下行动。
13:10
Scientists think it will take
a decade of research
a decade of research
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在我们能够开发和利用这些干预措施前，
13:13
just to assess these interventions,
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科学家认为需要 10 年的研究
13:15
before we ever were
to develop or use them.
to develop or use them.
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才能评估它们的效果。
13:18
Yet today, the global level of investment
in these interventions
in these interventions
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4404
然而今天，对这些干预的
全球级别的投入
全球级别的投入
13:22
is effectively zero.
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基本上是零。
13:26
So, we need to move quickly
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所以，我们需要快速行动，
13:28
if we want policymakers
to have real information
to have real information
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如果我们想要政策制定者具备
13:32
on this kind of emergency medicine.
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1967
这种应急医药的真实信息。
13:36
There is hope!
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希望是存在的！
13:38
The world has solved
these kinds of problems before.
these kinds of problems before.
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世界曾经解决过类似的问题。
13:41
In the 1970s, we identified
an existential threat
an existential threat
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3404
在 1970 年，我们发现了保护臭氧层
13:44
to our protective ozone layer.
247
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1770
所面临的威胁。
13:47
In the 1980s, scientists,
politicians and industry
politicians and industry
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2834
在 1980 年代，科学家，
政治家和工业界
政治家和工业界
13:50
came together in a solution to replace
the chemicals causing the problem.
the chemicals causing the problem.
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通过合作找到了引发这个问题
的化学物品的替代解决方案。
的化学物品的替代解决方案。
13:54
They achieved this with the only
legally binding environmental agreement
legally binding environmental agreement
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他们通过世界各国签署
的唯一具有法律约束力
的唯一具有法律约束力
13:58
signed by all countries in the world,
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的环境协定实现了这一目标，
14:00
the Montreal Protocol.
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《蒙特利尔议定书》。
14:02
Still in force today,
253
830642
2010
该协议今天仍然有效，
14:04
it has resulted in a recovery
of the ozone layer
of the ozone layer
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2784
它已经让臭氧层得到恢复，
14:07
and is the most successful
environmental protection effort
environmental protection effort
255
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并且它是人类历史上最成功的
14:10
in human history.
256
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1458
环境保护努力。
14:13
We have a far greater threat now,
257
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2595
我们现在面临着更大的威胁，
14:15
but we do have the ability
to develop and agree on solutions
to develop and agree on solutions
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但我们有能力去开发和通过
14:19
to protect people
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1539
保护人们和恢复
14:21
and restore our climate to health.
260
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2056
我们气候健康的解决方案。
14:24
This could mean that to remain safe,
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这可能意味着要保持安全，
14:27
we reflect sunlight for a few decades,
262
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我们要反射阳光几十年，
14:29
while we green our industries
and remove CO2.
and remove CO2.
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同时净化我们的工业
和消除二氧化碳。
和消除二氧化碳。
14:33
It definitely means we must work now
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这无疑意味着，
我们必须从现在开始着手，
我们必须从现在开始着手，
14:36
to understand our options
for this kind of emergency medicine.
for this kind of emergency medicine.
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了解我们对这种紧急医疗的选择。
14:41
Thank you,
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1151
谢谢。
14:43
(Applause)
267
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（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Kelly Wanser - Climate innovation activistKelly Wanser helps study and invent global-scale technological interventions that could save humanity from the worst effects of climate change.
Why you should listen
Kelly Wanser is founder and executive director of SilverLining, a nonprofit organization driving policy and innovation to ensure a safe climate within a decade. SilverLining focuses on near-term climate risk and advancing our understanding of fast-acting climate interventions (sometimes called "geoengineering") that might alleviate the most severe impacts.
Wanser is cofounder and advisor to the University of Washington Marine Cloud Brightening Project, an effort to understand one possible form of climate intervention: the cooling effects of particles on clouds. Wanser also serves on the board of BioCarbon Engineering -- a company using data and automation (including drone technology) to restore native ecosystems -- and on the President's Circle of the US National Academy of Sciences.
Kelly Wanser | Speaker | TED.com