TEDGlobal 2009
Paul Romer: Why the world needs charter cities
Paul Romer 的全新见解：特别市
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被困在不健全的制度下，一个国家怎么可能脱贫呢？经济学家Paul Romer提出全新见解：“特别市”，由多国联合政府管理的、城市规模的管理区域。(关塔那摩湾会变成下一个香港么？)
Paul Romer - Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, World Bank
Paul Romer's research on catch-up growth in low- and middle-income countries has emphasized the importance of government policies that encourage orderly urban expansion. Full bio
Paul Romer's research on catch-up growth in low- and middle-income countries has emphasized the importance of government policies that encourage orderly urban expansion. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
Take a look at this picture.
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请看这张图片。
00:21
It poses a very fascinating puzzle for us.
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它带给我们一个极具吸引力的谜。
00:24
These African students are doing their homework
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这些非洲学生在做功课
00:28
under streetlights at the airport in the capital city
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在首都机场的街灯下
00:31
because they don't have any electricity at home.
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因为他们家里没有电。
00:35
Now, I haven't met these particular students,
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我还没见过这几个学生本人
00:37
but I've met students like them.
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但我见过像他们一样的学生。
00:39
Let's just pick one -- for example, the one in the green shirt.
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拿那个穿绿衬衫的学生做例子，
00:43
Let's give him a name, too: Nelson.
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假设他的名字叫做Nelson。
00:45
I'll bet Nelson has a cellphone.
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我猜他肯定有个手机
00:48
So here is the puzzle.
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有趣的是，
00:50
Why is it that Nelson has access
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为什么Nelson有机会享用
00:52
to a cutting-edge technology, like the cellphone,
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像手机这样的前沿科技成果
00:55
but doesn't have access to a 100-year-old technology
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但却不能在家用上电力？
00:58
for generating electric light in the home?
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人们早在100年前就已经发明了这一科技啊？
01:02
Now, in a word, the answer is "rules."
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答案是“制度”。
01:05
Bad rules can prevent the kind of win-win solution that's available
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不健全的制度会
01:10
when people can bring new technologies in
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妨碍这种双赢节决办法的产生
01:13
and make them available to someone like Nelson.
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（比如）人们在一定的制度之下就不会将科技带给像Nelson这样的人
01:16
What kinds of rules?
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什么样的制度呢？
01:18
The electric company in this nation
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这个国家的电力公司需要遵守一条制度
01:21
operates under a rule, which says that it has to sell
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这个制度要求它
01:23
electricity at a very low, subsidized price --
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在政府补贴的条件下从用户收取极其低价电费
01:26
in fact, a price that is so low it loses money on every unit that it sells.
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事实上，电费便宜到另电力公司亏损的地步
01:30
So it has neither the resources, nor the incentives,
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所以，电力公司既没有资源，也没有动机
01:34
to hook up many other users.
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去给用户接通电源
01:36
The president wanted to change this rule.
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总统想要改变这个局面
01:39
He's seen that it's possible to have a different set of rules,
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他已经觉察到更换体制是具可能性的。
01:42
rules where businesses earn a small profit,
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能让商家盈利的体制
01:45
so they have an incentive to sign up more customers.
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才能使（商家）有动机争取更多用户
01:47
That's the kind of rules that the cellphone company
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卖Nelson的手机的那个厂家
01:51
that Nelson purchases his telephony from operates under.
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也正式在（让商家盈利）制度下经营着
01:55
The president has seen how those rules worked well.
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总统已经领会到（让商家盈利的）制度运行良好
01:58
So he tried to change the rules for pricing on electricity,
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所以他尝试着改变现行的（补贴）电价制度
02:01
but ran into a firestorm of protest
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但来自商人以及消费者的
02:03
from businesses and consumers
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反对的声音四起
02:05
who wanted to preserve the existing subsidized rates.
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他们想保留现行的补贴电费制度
02:09
So he was stuck with rules that prevented him
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总统无能为力，
02:13
from letting the win-win solution help his country.
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只能任由现行制度阻止双赢局面产生，任由它妨碍改善国家
02:18
And Nelson is stuck studying under the streetlights.
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因此，Nelson也只能在街灯下学习
02:23
The real challenge then, is to try to figure out
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真正具有挑战性的是
02:25
how we can change rules.
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尝试寻找改变制度的办法
02:28
Are there some rules we can develop for changing rules?
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我们可不可以发展“改变制度”的制度呢？
02:32
I want to argue that there is a general abstract insight
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我想说，
02:36
that we can make practical,
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我们可以把抽象化为实际
02:38
which is that, if we can give more choices to people,
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或者说，如果我们给予人民更多选择
02:41
and more choices to leaders --
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给予领导者更多选择，
02:45
who, in many countries, are also people.
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领导者在很多国家也是人民么
02:48
(Laughter)
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（笑）
02:51
But, it's useful to present the opposition between these two.
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但，（领袖和人民）两者间的对立还是有必要解释的
02:55
Because the kind of choice you might want to give to a leader,
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因为你想给予领袖的自由
02:58
a choice like giving the president the choice
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是像那种你给予总统
03:00
to raise prices on electricity,
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提高电价（的权力）一样的自由
03:03
takes away a choice that people in the economy want.
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剥夺人民在这个经济体系中的需求自由
03:06
They want the choice to be able to continue consuming
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（人民）希望可以继续享用
03:08
subsidized electric power.
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补贴电价的自由
03:11
So if you give just to one side or the other,
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所以如果你只选取一方，或另一方
03:13
you'll have tension or friction.
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你将面临矛盾或摩擦
03:16
But if we can find ways to give more choices to both,
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但如果我们相办法同时给两者自由
03:19
that will give us a set of rules
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那么就会产生
03:21
for changing rules that get us out of traps.
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能使我们摆脱困境的制度
03:26
Now, Nelson also has access to the Internet.
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Nelson现在还可以享用互联网
03:29
And he says that if you want to see
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他说如果你想看到
03:31
the damaging effects of rules,
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制度的破坏性
03:33
the ways that rules can keep people in the dark,
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制度怎样陷人民于黑暗中
03:35
look at the pictures from NASA of the earth at night.
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看一看美国家宇航局拍摄的地球夜景
03:39
In particular check out Asia.
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特别注意一下亚洲
03:41
If you zoom in here,
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放大这里
03:44
you can see North Korea, in outline here,
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可以看到北朝鲜，在这儿
03:46
which is like a black hole compared to its neighbors.
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比起它的邻居，北朝鲜就像个黑洞
03:49
Now, you won't be surprised to learn
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你不会惊讶
03:51
that the rules in North Korea
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北朝鲜的制度
03:53
keep people there in the dark.
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将人民陷于黑暗
03:55
But it is important to recognize
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重要的是
03:57
that North Korea and South Korea
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要承认南北朝鲜
03:59
started out with identical sets of rules
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曾有一模一样的制度
04:02
in both the sense of laws and regulations,
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不论法律上还是政策上
04:04
but also in the deeper senses of understandings,
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而且在深层理解上
04:08
norms, culture, values and beliefs.
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准则，文化，价值，信仰
04:12
When they separated, they made choices
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南北分隔时，南北朝鲜做出了
04:14
that led to very divergent paths
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引领它们走向不同道路的选择
04:16
for their sets of rules.
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由不同的制度而产生
04:18
So we can change -- we as humans can change the rules
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因而我们可以改变，我们，人类，可以改变制度
04:21
that we use to interact with each other,
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人际交往与相处的制度
04:23
for better, or for worse.
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使之变得更好，或更坏
04:27
Now let's look at another region, the Caribbean.
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现在来看看另外一个地区，加勒比海域
04:30
Zoom in on Haiti,
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放大海地 （国名）
04:32
in outline here.
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在这儿
04:34
Haiti is also dark,
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海地也在黑暗中
04:36
compared to its neighbor here, the Dominican Republic,
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和邻国多米尼加共和国相比
04:39
which has about the same number of residents.
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同样的人口总数
04:42
Both of these countries are dark compared to Puerto Rico,
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但这两个国家和波多黎各比，也处于黑暗中
04:45
which has half as many residents
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波多黎各人口总数大概是
04:47
as either Haiti or the Dominican Republic.
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海地或多米尼亚共和国的一半左右
04:50
What Haiti warns us is that
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海地提醒了我们
04:52
rules can be bad because governments are weak.
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体制可因薄弱的政府而不健全
04:56
It's not just that the rules are bad because
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而不完全是
04:58
the government is too strong and oppressive, as in North Korea.
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因为政府太强制，比如北朝鲜
05:01
So that if we want to create environments with good rules,
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因此如果我们想要创建良好政策的环境
05:04
we can't just tear down.
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我们不能总是破坏
05:06
We've got to find ways to build up, as well.
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我们需要相办法建设
05:10
Now, China dramatically demonstrates
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看，中国强烈地展示了
05:13
both the potential and the challenges
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体制改革带来的
05:15
of working with rules.
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潜力和挑战
05:18
Back in the beginning of the data presented in this chart,
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在这图表数据（被采集）的时期，
05:21
China was the world's high-technology leader.
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中国是世界高科技的前沿
05:24
Chinese had pioneered technologies like steel, printing, gunpowder.
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例如钢铁，印刷，火药
05:29
But the Chinese never adopted, at least in that period,
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但中国从未采用，至少那个时期
05:32
effective rules for encouraging the spread of those ideas --
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任何有效的措施来鼓励这些想法的传播
05:36
a profit motive that could have encouraged the spread.
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或者一个盈利的动机来鼓励传播
05:38
And they soon adopted rules which
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中国很快采用了
05:40
slowed down innovation
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延缓创新的措施
05:43
and cut China off from the rest of the world.
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然后与世界隔离，自闭门户
05:45
So as other countries in the world innovated,
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所以在其它国家创新时，
05:48
in the sense both of developing
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在发展
05:50
newer technologies,
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新科技
05:52
but also developing newer rules,
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和新制度的层面上时
05:54
the Chinese were cut off from those advances.
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中国已经与这些进步脱离了脚步
05:58
Income there stayed stagnant,
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国民收入停滞
06:00
as it zoomed ahead in the rest of the world.
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成为了一个非常落后的国度
06:03
This next chart looks at more recent data.
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这个图表展示较新的数据
06:06
It plots income, average income in China
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它展示了收入，中国的平均收入
06:08
as a percentage of average income in the United States.
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与之美国的平均收入百分比
06:11
In the '50s and '60s you can see that it was hovering at about three percent.
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五六十年代，你可以看到它徘徊在3％左右
06:14
But then in the late '70s something changed.
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但七十年代，情况变了
06:17
Growth took off in China. The Chinese started catching up
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中国开始发展，开始迅速地
06:20
very quickly with the United States.
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追赶上美国
06:23
If you go back to the map at night, you can get a clue
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如果你晚上看这个地图， 你会发现
06:26
to the process that lead to the dramatic change in rules in China.
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导致中国体制急速变化的原因
06:29
The brightest spot in China,
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中国最明亮的地域
06:32
which you can see on the edge of the outline here,
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你可以在轮廓的边际看到
06:35
is Hong Kong.
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是香港
06:37
Hong Kong was a small bit of China
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香港其实是中国很小的一块地方
06:40
that, for most of the 20th century,
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在二十世纪的绝大部分时期
06:42
operated under a very different set of rules
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都在非常不同的体制下治理着
06:44
than the rest of mainland China --
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与大陆其它地方都不同
06:46
rules that were copied
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体制是从
06:48
from working market economies of the time,
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当时（英国）有效的市场经济复制出来的
06:50
and administered by the British.
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并由英国治理
06:53
In the 1950s, Hong Kong was a place where
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于19世纪五十年代，香港是
06:56
millions of people could go, from the mainland,
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百万大陆人
06:58
to start in jobs like sewing shirts, making toys.
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去找像缝纫，制作玩具之类工作的地方
07:03
But, to get on a process of increasing income,
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但要想提高收入
07:06
increasing skills
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提高技术
07:08
led to very rapid growth there.
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促进（经济）飞速增长
07:11
Hong Kong was also the model
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香港也是
07:13
which leaders like Deng Xiaoping
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像邓小平这样的领导者
07:16
could copy, when they decided to move
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想要使大陆走向市场经济时
07:18
all of the mainland towards the market model.
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要模仿的经济模型
07:22
But Deng Xiaoping instinctively understood
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但邓小平本能地理解
07:24
the importance of offering choices to his people.
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给予人民自由的重要性
07:28
So instead of forcing everyone in China
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所以邓不是一下子放手让中国
07:31
to shift immediately to the market model,
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立即走向市场经济
07:33
they proceeded by creating some special zones
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他先设立了特别行政区
07:36
that could do, in a sense, what Britain did:
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这样就可以模仿英国
07:38
make the opportunity to go work with the market rules
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提供可以运行市场经济的机会
07:40
available to the people who wanted to opt in there.
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向那些想要这个机会的人们
07:43
So they created four special economic zones around Hong Kong:
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所以他们创建了围绕香港的四个特殊经济开发区
07:46
zones where Chinese could come and work,
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中国人可以去那里工作
07:49
and cities grew up very rapidly there;
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那里城市迅速发展
07:51
also zones where foreign firms could come in
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并且外商涌入
07:54
and make things.
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制造产品
07:56
One of the zones next to Hong Kong has a city called Shenzhen.
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香港旁边有个地区叫深圳
07:59
In that city there is a Taiwanese firm
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深圳有个台湾公司
08:02
that made the iPhone that many of you have,
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制造你们每人都有的iPhone
08:05
and they made it with labor from Chinese
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使用中国的劳动力
08:08
who moved there to Shenzhen.
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那些移民到深圳的劳工
08:10
So after the four special zones,
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所以在四个特别行政区以后
08:12
there were 14 coastal cites
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有14个滨海城市
08:14
that were open in the same sense,
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向这样对外开放
08:16
and eventually demonstrated successes
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最终成功
08:19
in these places that people could opt in to,
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在这些人们选择移居的地方
08:21
that they flocked to because of the advantages they offered.
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其实人们是因为机遇和条件而蜂拥而至
08:24
Demonstrated successes there led to a consensus for
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这些（特别行政区）的成功引起共识
08:28
a move toward the market model for the entire economy.
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带领整个经济体制走向市场经济
08:33
Now the Chinese example shows us several points.
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现在中国的这些例子证明以下几点：
08:37
One is: preserve choices for people.
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一：留给人民自由
08:40
Two: operate on the right scale.
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二：在恰当的规模下操作
08:42
If you try to change the rules in a village, you could do that,
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如果你想在一个村庄改变体制，可以，
08:45
but a village would be too small
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但一个村的规模太小了
08:47
to get the kinds of benefits you can get if you have millions of people
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不能带给你如同让百万人一样的效应
08:49
all working under good rules.
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在优质体制的治理下
08:51
On the other hand, the nation is too big.
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另一方面，一下子改变全国的体制又太大了
08:54
If you try to change the rules in the nation,
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如果你想改变国家体制
08:56
you can't give some people a chance
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有一部分人必然得不到照顾
08:58
to hold back, see how things turn out,
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他们也没有机会去评估新政的优劣
09:00
and let others zoom ahead and try the new rules.
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（无法）给人民一个聚焦未来，尝试新体制的机会
09:03
But cities give you this opportunity
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但像城市就能给你这些机会
09:05
to create new places,
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来创建新领域
09:07
with new rules that people can opt in to.
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开拓新体制，人们可以选择（尝试这个体制）
09:09
And they're large enough
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并且（城市这个规模）足够大
09:11
to get all of the benefits that we can have
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大到我们能得到应有的
09:13
when millions of us work together under good rules.
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当百万人在新体制治理下应有的效应
09:17
So the proposal is that we
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所以我提议
09:20
conceive of something called a charter city.
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我们设想一种叫做“特别市”的东西
09:23
We start with a charter that specifies
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首先（设立）纲领
09:25
all the rules required
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详细说明所有的条例规则
09:27
to attract the people who we'll need to build the city.
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来吸引那些建设特别市的人才
09:31
We'll need to attract the investors
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我们需要吸引投资商
09:33
who will build out the infrastructure --
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他们会建设基础设施
09:35
the power system, the roads, the port, the airport, the buildings.
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（比如）能源系统，公路，码头，机场，楼房
09:38
You'll need to attract firms,
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你需要吸引商家
09:40
who will come hire the people who move there first.
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他们会来聘用最先移居特别市的人们
09:43
And you'll need to attract families,
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你需要吸引家庭
09:45
the residents who will come and live there permanently,
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那些会来长期居住的人
09:47
raise their children, get an education for their children,
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抚养小孩，供他们受教育
09:49
and get their first job.
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开始他们的事业
09:51
With that charter, people will move there.
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在这样的纲领下，人们会移居那里
09:54
The city can be built.
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城市才能建立起来
09:56
And we can scale this model.
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我们还可以改善这个模型的规模
09:58
We can go do it over and over again.
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我们可以一遍又一遍地（尝试）
10:02
To make it work, we need good rules. We've already discussed that.
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要想成功，我们需要完善地体制。我们已经讨论过了
10:05
Those are captured in the charter.
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这些（体制）将在纲领中体现出来
10:07
We also need the choices for people.
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我们还需要给人们自由去选择
10:10
That's really built into the model
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（自由选择）是真正融入了这个模型（的精髓）
10:12
if we allow for the possibility of building cities
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如果我们允许
10:15
on uninhabited land.
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在无人居住的土地上建设城市的话
10:17
You start from uninhabited territory.
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你从荒芜的领地开始
10:19
People can come live under the new charter,
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人们可以移居那里开始新的纲领
10:21
but no one is forced to live under it.
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但没有人是被迫的
10:24
The final thing we need are choices for leaders.
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最后，我们需要给领导者自由去选择
10:27
And, to achieve the kind of choices we want for leaders
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要做到给领导者自由
10:29
we need to allow for the potential for partnerships between nations:
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我们需要允许国家间的合作
10:33
cases where nations work together,
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让不同的国家可以合作
10:35
in effect, de facto,
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事实上
10:37
the way China and Britain worked together
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像中国和英国合作（于香港一例）一样
10:39
to build, first a little enclave of the market model,
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来首先建设一个市场经济的飞地
10:43
and then scale it throughout China.
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然后扩大至整个中国
10:45
In a sense, Britain, inadvertently,
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或多或少，英国，不经意地
10:47
through its actions in Hong Kong,
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在上个世纪它治理香港期间
10:49
did more to reduce world poverty
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对削减世界贫困上做出了
10:52
than all the aid programs that we've undertaken
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比任何支援项目
10:54
in the last century.
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都更为卓越的贡献
10:56
So if we allow for these kind of partnerships
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所以只要我们允许这样的合作
10:58
to replicate this again,
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重演
11:00
we can get those kinds of benefits scaled throughout the world.
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我们可以将这个效应扩大的整个世界的规模
11:04
In some cases this will involve a delegation of responsibility,
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有时这需要委派职责
11:08
a delegation of control from one country to another
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一种从一个国家到另外一个国家的责任的委派
11:12
to take over certain kinds of administrative responsibilities.
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来执行某些行政管理的职责
11:16
Now, when I say that,
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我这么说
11:19
some of you are starting to think,
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你们中有些人可能开始想
11:21
"Well, is this just bringing back colonialism?"
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“那，不是要恢复殖民主义吗？”
11:26
It's not. But it's important to recognize that the kind of emotions
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不是的。但是认识到这种情绪却是重要的
11:30
that come up when we start to think about these things,
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我们开始考虑这些时，这些情绪将产生
11:32
can get in the way, can make us pull back,
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（这些情绪）会阻碍我们
11:35
can shut down our ability,
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扼杀我们的能力
11:37
and our interest in trying to explore new ideas.
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（打击）我们探索新想法的兴趣
11:40
Why is this not like colonialism?
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为什么这不是殖民主义？
11:42
The thing that was bad about colonialism,
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殖民主义的弊病
11:45
and the thing which is residually bad in some of our aid programs,
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以及支援项目遗留的弊端是
11:49
is that it involved elements of
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它具有
11:51
coercion and condescension.
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强迫和屈尊的元素
11:54
This model is all about choices,
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但（我提议的这个）模型的核心是自由选择
11:56
both for leaders and for the people who will live in these new places.
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无论是对领导者来说，还是对来移居的人民来说
12:00
And, choice is the antidote to coercion and condescension.
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这自由选择恰恰正是强迫和屈尊的解药
12:04
So let's talk about how this could play out in practice.
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那么我们来谈谈怎样实际操作
12:07
Let's take a particular leader, Raul Castro, who is the leader of Cuba.
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拿卡斯特罗来说——他是古巴的领袖做例子
12:10
It must have occurred to Castro
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卡斯特罗一定意识到
12:12
that he has the chance to do for Cuba
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他有机会对古巴
12:15
what Deng Xiaoping did for China,
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采用像邓小平对中国一样的政策
12:17
but he doesn't have a Hong Kong there on the island in Cuba.
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但古巴这个岛国没有像香港一样的地方
12:21
He does, though, have a little bit of light down in the south
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南方倒有一处明亮的地方
12:25
that has a very special status.
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具有非常特殊的意义
12:27
There is a zone there, around Guantanamo Bay,
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在关塔那摩湾区域
12:31
where a treaty gives the United States
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一个条约给予美国
12:33
administrative responsibility
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行政管理的权力
12:35
for a piece of land that's about twice the size of Manhattan.
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对这足有曼哈顿两倍大小的地方
12:38
Castro goes to the prime minister of Canada
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卡斯特罗对加拿大总理说
12:41
and says, "Look, the Yankees have a terrible PR problem.
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“看，美国佬在公共关系上有问题
12:45
They want to get out.
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他们要退出了
12:47
Why don't you, Canada, take over?
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你为什么不接手呢？
12:49
Build -- run a special administrative zone.
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管理一个特别的行政区
12:53
Allow a new city to be built up there.
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让新城市建设在那里
12:55
Allow many people to come in.
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让人们住进来
12:57
Let us have a Hong Kong nearby.
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让我们附近有一个像香港一样的城市
12:59
Some of my citizens will move into that city as well.
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我的公民会移居那里
13:02
Others will hold back. But this will be
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也有人不会。但这将
13:04
the gateway that will connect
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成为会连通现代经济和现代世界
13:06
the modern economy and the modern world
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的门户
13:08
to my country."
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对我的国家来说。”
13:10
Now, where else might this model be tried?
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现在，还有哪里尝试过这个模型？
13:13
Well, Africa. I've talked with leaders in Africa.
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非洲。我曾和非洲的领导者沟通过
13:15
Many of them totally get the notion of a special zone
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他们很多人都完全理解特别行政区的含义
13:19
that people can opt into as a rule.
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人们可以选择体制
13:22
It's a rule for changing rules.
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这是个为改变体制而建立的体制
13:24
It's a way to create new rules, and let people opt-in
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这是个创建新制度，让人民选择的办法
13:27
without coercion, and the opposition that coercion can force.
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没有压迫，也没有可以去压迫的反抗
13:31
They also totally get the idea that in some instances
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（非洲领导者）也完全理解在某些情况下
13:34
they can make more credible promises to long-term investors --
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他们可以向长期投资商做出更由权威的承诺
13:38
the kind of investors who will come build the port,
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那些将会修建码头的投资商
13:40
build the roads, in a new city --
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修建公路，在新城市
13:43
they can make more credible promises
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他们可以做出更有信服力的承诺
13:45
if they do it along with a partner nation.
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如果他们与另外一个国家合作
13:47
Perhaps even in some arrangement
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甚至在某些安排中，
13:49
that's a little bit like an escrow account,
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这有点像代管账户
13:51
where you put land in the escrow account
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你把地产投入代管账户
13:53
and the partner nation takes responsibility for it.
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合作国从而负责管理这个账户
13:56
There is also lots of land in Africa
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非洲还有很多地
13:59
where new cities could be built.
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新城市可以建设在这些地上
14:01
This is a picture I took when I was flying along the coast.
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这张照片是我在海湾上空拍摄的
14:04
There are immense stretches of land like this --
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像这样的广阔的地有很多
14:06
land where hundreds of millions of people could live.
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成百上千的人可以居住
14:09
Now, if we generalize this and think about
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让我们概括并思考
14:11
not just one or two charter cites, but dozens --
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不是一两个，而是几十个特别市
14:14
cities that will help create places for the
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能提供
14:18
many hundreds of millions, perhaps billions of people
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上百万，或许上亿人
14:21
who will move to cities in the coming century --
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在下个世纪移居到特别市
14:23
is there enough land for them?
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我们有足够大的地吗？
14:25
Well, throughout the world, if we look at the lights at night,
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远看世界，如果我们夜里寻找明亮
14:28
the one thing that's misleading is that, visually, it looks
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误导人的是
14:30
like most of the world is already built out.
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肉眼看来，貌似绝大部分已经建设好了
14:32
So let me show you why that's wrong.
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让我来告诉你为什么这是错误的
14:35
Take this representation of all of the land.
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这代表所有的地面
14:37
Turn it into a square that stands for
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把它转换成方形来代表
14:39
all the arable land on Earth.
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地球上所有可耕种的土地
14:41
And let these dots represent the land that's already taken up
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这些点代表已经被占用了的土地
14:43
by the cities that three billion people now live in.
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现在有30亿人居住在城市里
14:46
If you move the dots down to the bottom of the rectangle
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如果你把这些点移动倒长方形的底端
14:49
you can see that the cities for the existing three billion urban residents
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你发现已经住有30亿城镇居民的城市
14:53
take up only three percent of the arable land on earth.
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只占用了地球上3％可耕种土地
14:57
So if we wanted to build cities for another billion people,
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如果我们想再建设些城市来容纳10亿居民
15:00
they would be dots like this.
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他们会像这些点一样
15:02
We'd go from three percent of the arable land, to four percent.
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我们从占用3％可耕种土地到占用4％
15:05
We'd dramatically reduce the human footprint on Earth
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通过建设城市，并且让住在农村的人可以移居城市
15:09
by building more cities that people can move to.
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我们将急剧减少人类在地球上的足迹
15:11
And if these are cities governed by good rules,
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如果这些城市在完善的体制下治理
15:14
they can be cities where people are safe from crime,
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他们可以成为人们
15:17
safe from disease and bad sanitation,
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远离犯罪、疾病以及低劣的卫生条件
15:20
where people have a chance to get a job.
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人们可以找工作
15:22
They can get basic utilities like electricity.
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可以有起码的公共服务，比如用电
15:24
Their kids can get an education.
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孩子可以受教育
15:27
So what will it take to get started
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我们需要什么来开始（这个工程）呢？
15:29
building the first charter cities,
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开始建设第一批特别市
15:31
scaling this so we build many more?
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然后扩大规模，建设更多？
15:33
It would help to have a manual.
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有一个“用户使用指南”还是很有必要的
15:35
(Laughter)
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（笑）
15:39
What university professors could do
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大学教授能做到的
15:41
is write some details that might go into this manual.
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是写一些可以被写入指南的细节
15:45
You wouldn't want to let us run the cities,
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你或许不让我们治理这些城市
15:48
go out and design them.
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出去设计它们
15:50
You wouldn't let academics out in the wild. (Laughter)
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你或许不让学者走出象牙塔
15:53
But, you could set us to work thinking about questions like,
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但你可以让我们来考虑这些问题
15:56
suppose it isn't just Canada
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假设这不仅是加拿大
15:58
that does the deal with Raul Castro.
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和卡斯特罗的交易
16:01
Perhaps Brazil comes in as a participant,
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也许巴西也来凑热闹
16:04
and Spain as well. And perhaps Cuba wants to be
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还有西班牙。也许古巴想要
16:06
one of the partners in a four-way joint venture.
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成为四边合作的一员
16:09
How would we write the treaty to do that?
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我们怎么来起草协议呢？
16:11
There is less precedent for that, but that could easily be worked out.
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没有前者为例。但要解决也很轻松
16:14
How would we finance this?
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我们怎么融资？
16:16
Turns out Singapore and Hong Kong
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事实上新加坡和香港
16:18
are cities that made huge gains
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还有其它
16:20
on the value of the land that they owned when they got started.
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在地产增值时捞上一大笔的一些城市
16:23
You could use the gains on the value of the land
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你可以用地产的盈利来支付
16:25
to pay for things like the police, the courts,
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像警察，法院之类的设施
16:28
but the school system and the health care system too,
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还有教育和医疗系统
16:30
which make this a more attractive place to live,
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让它成为让人向往居住的地方
16:33
makes this a place where people have higher incomes --
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让它成为高收入的地方
16:35
which, incidentally, makes the land more valuable.
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这样也会使得地产增值更高
16:38
So the incentives for the people helping to construct this zone
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所以
16:41
and build it, and set up the basic rules,
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对这些建设这区域，设立基础纲领的人的奖励
16:44
go very much in the right direction.
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是完全合适的
16:46
So there are many other details like this.
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还有很多像这样的细节
16:48
How could we have buildings that are
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我们怎样才能给那些靠组装iPhone的工人
16:50
low cost and affordable for people who work
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像那样的一类人群
16:52
in a first job, assembling something like an iPhone,
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如何为他们提供他们有能力买得起的楼房？
16:55
but make those buildings energy efficient,
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而且要让这楼房节能
16:57
and make sure that they are safe, so they don't fall down
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安全，不能塌下来
16:59
in an earthquake or a hurricane.
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比如说在地震或飓风的时候
17:02
Many technical details to be worked out,
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很多细节还要再疏理
17:04
but those of us who are already starting to pursue these things
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我们中间有些人已经在追逐这样的梦了
17:08
can already tell that there is no roadblock,
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他们可以告诉你，
17:10
there's no impediment, other than a failure of imagination,
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没有办不到的，只有想不到的
17:13
that will keep us from delivering on
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只有匮乏的想像力会阻碍我们
17:15
a truly global win-win solution.
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发掘出可以带来真正的全球双赢的方案
17:20
Let me conclude with this picture.
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让我们总结一下
17:23
The reason we can be so well off,
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为什么我们可以过着富裕的生活
17:25
even though there is so many people on earth,
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尽管地球上这么多人
17:27
is because of the power of ideas.
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因为主意的力量
17:30
We can share ideas with other people,
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我们可以与人分享想法
17:32
and when they discover them, they share with us.
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当他们有好的主意，他们也和我们分享
17:34
It's not like scarce objects,
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这与稀有物质不同
17:36
where sharing means we each get less.
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（稀有物质）分享意味着每人得到少一些
17:38
When we share ideas we all get more.
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但我们分享我们的想法时，我们都得到更多
17:41
When we think about ideas in that way,
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如果我们这么谈起想法
17:43
we usually think about technologies.
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通常会想到科技
17:45
But there is another class of ideas:
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但想法也有另外一层含义
17:47
the rules that govern how we interact with each other;
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那就是我们怎样彼此交流的规则
17:50
rules like, let's have a tax system
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像让我们有一个税收系统
17:52
that supports a research university
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来支持一个科研性大学
17:54
that gives away certain kinds of knowledge for free.
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来免费传授某个知识这样的规则
17:57
Let's have a system where we have ownership of land
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让我们有一个系统允许我们拥有
17:59
that is registered in a government office,
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在政府注册了的土地
18:01
that people can pledge as collateral.
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人们可以拿做抵押
18:03
If we can keep innovating on our space of rules,
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如果我们坚持在规则上创新
18:05
and particularly innovate in the sense
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特别是
18:07
of coming up with rules for changing rules,
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在改变规则的规则上创新
18:09
so we don't get stuck with bad rules,
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这样我们就不会被不健全的制度禁锢
18:12
then we can keep moving progress forward
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这样我们就可以朝前进步
18:15
and truly make the world a better place,
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真正让世界更美好
18:17
so that people like Nelson and his friends
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这样像Nelson和他的朋友们这样的孩子
18:20
don't have to study any longer under the streetlights. Thank you.
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就不必在街灯下学习了。谢谢。
18:23
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul Romer - Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, World BankPaul Romer's research on catch-up growth in low- and middle-income countries has emphasized the importance of government policies that encourage orderly urban expansion.
Why you should listen
Paul Romer believes in the power of ideas. He first studied how to speed up the discovery and implementation of new technologies. But to address the big problems we'll face this century -- insecurity, harm to the environment, global poverty -- new technologies will not be enough. We must also speed up the discovery and implementation of new rules, of new ideas about how people interact.
Throughout human history, big improvements in systems of rules took place when new governments entered the scene. In today's world, this process has been largely shut down. To bring it back to life, Romer proposes that we create new cities where people can go to escape from bad rules and opt in to new and better ones. With better rules, people can be safe, self-interest can protect the environment, and investment can bring families all the resources that the modern world has to offer.
Romer took office as the World Bank's Chief Economist and Senior Vice President in October 2016.
Paul Romer | Speaker | TED.com