Mission Blue Voyage
Jeremy Jackson: How we wrecked the ocean
杰瑞米·杰克逊：我们如何损毁了海洋
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在这一震撼人心的演讲中，珊瑚礁生态学家杰瑞米·杰克逊展示了今天海洋的惊人状况：过度捕捞，过热，污染，迹象表明状况还将进一步恶化。触目惊心的图片和数据提供了实证。
Jeremy Jackson - Marine ecologist
A leader in the study of the ecology and evolution of marine organisms, Jeremy Jackson is known for his deep understanding of geological time. Full bio
A leader in the study of the ecology and evolution of marine organisms, Jeremy Jackson is known for his deep understanding of geological time. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I'm an ecologist,
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我是一名生态学家，
00:18
mostly a coral reef ecologist.
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主要是珊瑚礁生态学家。
00:20
I started out in Chesapeake Bay
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我的研究工作起步于Chesapeake海湾
00:22
and went diving in the winter
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我冬天出去潜水
00:24
and became a tropical ecologist overnight.
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一夜之间成为一名热带生态学家
00:27
And it was really a lot of fun
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这项工作充满了乐趣
00:30
for about 10 years.
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前后大约十年
00:32
I mean, somebody pays you
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我是说，有人付钱
00:34
to go around and travel
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让你四处旅行
00:36
and look at some of the most
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欣赏地球上
00:38
beautiful places on the planet.
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风景最美的地方
00:40
And that was what I did.
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那就是我的工作。
00:43
And I ended up in Jamaica,
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最后我到了牙买加
00:45
in the West Indies,
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在西印度群岛
00:47
where the coral reefs were really
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那儿的珊瑚礁的确是
00:49
among the most extraordinary, structurally,
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结构上最为奇特的
00:51
that I ever saw in my life.
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为我平生所罕见
00:54
And this picture here,
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这张照片
00:56
it's really interesting, it shows two things:
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很有意思，它显示了两点。
00:58
First of all, it's in black and white
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首先，它是黑白的
01:00
because the water was so clear
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因为水是如此清澈
01:02
and you could see so far,
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你可以看得很远
01:04
and film was so slow
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曝光很慢
01:06
in the 1960s and early 70s,
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那是六十年代和七十年代早期
01:08
you took pictures in black and white.
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照片都是黑白的
01:10
The other thing it shows you
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它显示的另外一点
01:12
is that, although there's this beautiful
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纵然有这些
01:14
forest of coral,
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美丽的珊瑚丛
01:16
there are no fish in that picture.
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照片上却看不到鱼
01:19
Those reefs at Discovery Bay, Jamaica
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牙买加 Discovery湾的那些珊瑚礁
01:22
were the most studied coral reefs
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是全球过去的20年中
01:24
in the world for 20 years.
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最受研究者关注的珊瑚礁
01:26
We were the best and the brightest.
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当时我们是最优秀最杰出的
01:28
People came to study our reefs from Australia,
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曾经有人从澳大利亚跑来研究我们的珊瑚礁
01:31
which is sort of funny
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这多少有些滑稽
01:33
because now we go to theirs.
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因为现在我们跑去研究他们的珊瑚礁
01:35
And the view of scientists
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科学家们关于
01:38
about how coral reefs work, how they ought to be,
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珊瑚礁的正常生长状态的观点
01:41
was based on these reefs
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都建立在这些
01:43
without any fish.
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不存在鱼类的珊瑚礁上
01:45
Then, in 1980,
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然后，到了1980年
01:47
there was a hurricane, Hurricane Allen.
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一场飓风袭来，飓风Allen
01:50
I put half the lab
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我把半个实验室
01:52
up in my house.
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搬到了我家里
01:54
The wind blew very strong.
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狂风大作
01:56
The waves were 25
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海浪高达25
01:59
to 50 feet high.
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到50英尺
02:01
And the reefs disappeared, and new islands formed,
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珊瑚礁消失了，新的岛屿形成了
02:04
and we thought, "Well, we're real smart.
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我们想，“哦，我们真是太聪明了。
02:06
We know that hurricanes
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我们知道飓风
02:08
have always happened in the past."
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历来都在发生。”
02:10
And we published a paper in Science,
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我们在《科学》杂志发表了一篇论文
02:12
the first time that anybody ever
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那是第一次有人
02:14
described the destruction
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描述珊瑚礁
02:16
on a coral reef by a major hurricane.
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被一场大飓风毁灭的情景
02:19
And we predicted what would happen,
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我们对未来作出了预测
02:21
and we got it all wrong.
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结果我们全盘皆错
02:23
And the reason was
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原因就是
02:25
because of overfishing,
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过度捕捞
02:28
and the fact that a last common grazer,
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还有就是最后一个食藻生物
02:31
a sea urchin, died.
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海胆死了
02:34
And within a few months
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海胆死后几个月之内
02:36
after that sea urchin dying, the seaweed started to grow.
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海藻就开始生长
02:39
And that is the same reef;
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那是同一个珊瑚礁
02:41
that's the same reef 15 years ago;
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15年前的那个珊瑚礁
02:43
that's the same reef today.
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这是今天的同一个珊瑚礁
02:46
The coral reefs of the north coast of Jamaica
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牙买加北海岸的珊瑚礁
02:49
have a few percent live coral cover
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还剩下百分之几的活珊瑚覆盖率
02:52
and a lot of seaweed and slime.
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和大量的海藻及烂泥
02:54
And that's more or less the story
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这大致就是
02:56
of the coral reefs of the Caribbean,
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加勒比海珊瑚礁的故事
02:58
and increasingly, tragically,
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并悲剧性地日益成为
03:01
the coral reefs worldwide.
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全球珊瑚礁共同的命运
03:03
Now, that's my little, depressing story.
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这就是我悲伤的小故事
03:06
All of us in our 60s and 70s
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我们所有的人在六七十年代
03:09
have comparable depressing stories.
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都有类似悲伤的故事
03:12
There are tens of thousands
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成千上万个
03:14
of those stories out there,
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这样的故事在流传着
03:16
and it's really hard to conjure up
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让人很难唤起
03:18
much of a sense of well-being,
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任何乐观的情绪
03:20
because it just keeps getting worse.
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因为情况在日益恶化
03:22
And the reason it keeps getting worse
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日益恶化的原因是
03:24
is that after a natural catastrophe,
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在自然灾害过后
03:27
like a hurricane,
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例如一场飓风
03:31
it used to be that there was
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以前通常会有
03:33
some kind of successional sequence of recovery,
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一连串的恢复过程
03:36
but what's going on now is that
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但现在的情况是
03:39
overfishing and pollution and climate change
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过度捕捞、污染和气候变化
03:42
are all interacting
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彼此相互作用
03:44
in a way that prevents that.
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阻止这一过程的发生
03:46
And so I'm going to sort of go through
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因此我想梳理
03:48
and talk about those three
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并谈论一下
03:50
kinds of things.
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这三件事情
03:52
We hear a lot about
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我们经常听到关于
03:54
the collapse of cod.
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鳕鱼的灭绝
03:56
It's difficult to imagine that
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我们很难想象
03:58
two, or some historians would say three world wars
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两次，有些历史学家说三次
04:02
were fought during the colonial era
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殖民时期的世界大战都是为了
04:04
for the control of cod.
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争夺对鳕鱼的控制
04:06
Cod fed most of the people of Western Europe.
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鳕鱼养活了大部分西欧人
04:09
It fed the slaves
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也养活了
04:11
brought to the Antilles,
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被遣送到安地列斯群岛上的奴隶
04:14
the song "Jamaica Farewell" --
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有首歌叫“告别牙买加”
04:16
"Ackee rice salt fish are nice" --
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"阿开果饭和咸鳕鱼很美味”
04:18
is an emblem of the importance
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表明了来自加拿大东北部的
04:21
of salt cod from northeastern Canada.
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咸鳕鱼的重要性
04:24
It all collapsed in the 80s and the 90s:
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这一切都在八十和九十年代土崩瓦解
04:27
35,000 people lost their jobs.
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35000人丢掉了工作
04:30
And that was the beginning
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那仅仅是
04:32
of a kind of serial depletion
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一系列枯竭的开始
04:34
from bigger and tastier species
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从味道鲜美的大型种类
04:36
to smaller and not-so-tasty species,
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到味道一般的小型种类
04:39
from species that were near to home
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从家门口的种类
04:41
to species that were all around the world,
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到全球各地的种类
04:44
and what have you.
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你还剩下什么。
04:46
It's a little hard to understand that,
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这可能不容易理解
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because you can go to a Costco in the United States
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因为你们可以在美国的Costco
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and buy cheap fish.
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买到便宜的鱼
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You ought to read the label to find out where it came from,
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你们应该阅读一下标签看它来自何处
04:55
but it's still cheap,
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但鱼还是很便宜
04:57
and everybody thinks it's okay.
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所有人都觉得没事
04:59
It's hard to communicate this,
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这个信息很难传达
05:01
and one way that I think is really interesting
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因此我认为一种有趣的方式是
05:04
is to talk about sport fish,
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讨论一下垂钓运动
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because people like to go out and catch fish.
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因为人们喜欢出去钓鱼
05:10
It's one of those things.
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就像这个
05:12
This picture here shows the trophy fish,
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照片上显示的是获胜的鱼
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the biggest fish caught
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人们钓到的最大的鱼
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by people who pay a lot of money
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有人花了很多钱
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to get on a boat,
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开着船
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go to a place off of Key West in Florida,
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来到福罗里达州 Key West 附近的一个地方
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drink a lot of beer,
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喝很多啤酒
05:26
throw a lot of hooks and lines into the water,
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往水里扔一大堆鱼钩和鱼线
05:28
come back with the biggest and the best fish,
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结果钓到了最大最好的鱼
05:31
and the champion trophy fish
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获奖的这条冠军鱼
05:33
are put on this board, where people take a picture,
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就被摆到船上， 让人拍照
05:36
and this guy is obviously
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显然这个家伙
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really excited about that fish.
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对那条鱼激动万分
05:41
Well, that's what it's like now,
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好了，那就是眼下的情景
05:43
but this is what it was like in the 1950s
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但这个是五十年代的情景
05:45
from the same boat in the same place
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同样的船同样的地方
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on the same board on the same dock.
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同一个码头同一个船舷
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The trophy fish
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获胜的鱼
05:53
were so big
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是那么大
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that you couldn't put any of those small fish up on it.
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那些小鱼根本没法比。
05:58
And the average size trophy fish
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获胜的鱼的平均重量
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weighed 250 to 300 pounds, goliath grouper,
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在250到300磅之间，巨型鲈鱼
06:03
and if you wanted to go out and kill something,
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你如果想外出捕捞点什么
06:05
you could pretty much count on
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你几乎肯定可以
06:07
being able to catch one of those fish.
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捕到一条那样的鱼
06:09
And they tasted really good.
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而且味道极其鲜美
06:11
And people paid less in 1950 dollars
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人们在1950年捕捞大鱼
06:14
to catch that
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所花的钱
06:16
than what people pay now
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比现在抓小鱼
06:18
to catch those little, tiny fish.
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所花的钱还少
06:21
And that's everywhere.
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到处都是如此
06:23
It's not just the fish, though,
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不仅仅是鱼类
06:25
that are disappearing.
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正在消失
06:27
Industrial fishing uses big stuff,
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工业化捕捞用的是大家伙
06:30
big machinery.
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大机器
06:32
We use nets that are 20 miles long.
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我们使用20英里长的渔网
06:34
We use longlines
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极长的鱼线
06:36
that have one million or two million hooks.
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带有100万到200万个鱼钩
06:39
And we trawl,
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我们使用拖网
06:41
which means to take something
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那就是说使用一个
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the size of a tractor trailer truck
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牵引式挂车那么大的东西
06:45
that weighs thousands and thousands of pounds,
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重达几千磅
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put it on a big chain,
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挂上巨大的链子
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and drag it across the sea floor
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从海底横扫而过
06:52
to stir up the bottom and catch the fish.
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翻起海床来捕捉鱼类
06:55
Think of it as
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可以把这想象成
06:58
being kind of the bulldozing of a city
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推倒一座城市
07:00
or of a forest,
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或者一个森林
07:02
because it clears it away.
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因为一切被一扫而光
07:04
And the habitat destruction
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那种栖息地的灭绝
07:06
is unbelievable.
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简直令人难以置信
07:08
This is a photograph,
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这是一张照片
07:10
a typical photograph,
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一张典型的照片
07:12
of what the continental shelves
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显示了全球
07:14
of the world look like.
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大陆架的状况
07:16
You can see the rows in the bottom,
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你们可以看到底部的条纹
07:19
the way you can see the rows
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就好象你们能看到
07:21
in a field that has just been plowed
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刚被犁过的
07:23
to plant corn.
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玉米地
07:25
What that was, was a forest of sponges and coral,
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那里曾经是海绵和珊瑚丛
07:28
which is a critical habitat
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那是鱼类生长
07:30
for the development of fish.
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至关重要的栖息地
07:32
What it is now is mud,
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现在却成了泥土
07:35
and the area of the ocean floor
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全球海底
07:38
that has been transformed from forest
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从丛林变为
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to level mud, to parking lot,
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停车场式泥地的海域
07:43
is equivalent to the entire area
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相当于
07:46
of all the forests
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人类历史上
07:48
that have ever been cut down
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被砍伐的
07:50
on all of the earth
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全球的
07:52
in the history of humanity.
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所有森林的面积。
07:54
We've managed to do that
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这一点我们是在
07:56
in the last 100 to 150 years.
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过去100到150年间完成的
08:00
We tend to think of oil spills
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我们总是想到石油泄漏
08:02
and mercury
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或者水银
08:04
and we hear a lot about plastic these days.
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现在人们也经常谈论塑料制品
08:06
And all of that stuff is really disgusting,
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所有这些都很可恨
08:08
but what's really insidious
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但真正隐伏的危险
08:10
is the biological pollution that happens
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是生物污染
08:13
because of the magnitude of the shifts
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来源于它对
08:16
that it causes
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整个生态系统造成的
08:18
to entire ecosystems.
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巨大的变迁
08:20
And I'm going to just talk very briefly
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我只想简要地讨论
08:22
about two kinds of biological pollution:
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两种生物污染
08:25
one is introduced species
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一是入侵物种
08:27
and the other is what comes from nutrients.
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另外一个来源于营养素
08:30
So this is the infamous
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这就是臭名昭著的
08:32
Caulerpa taxifolia,
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杉叶蕨藻
08:34
the so-called killer algae.
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所谓的致命海藻
08:37
A book was written about it.
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有整整一本书写的就是这个
08:39
It's a bit of an embarrassment.
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实在是令人尴尬
08:41
It was accidentally released
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它在偶然之间
08:43
from the aquarium in Monaco,
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被从摩纳哥的一个水族馆释放出来
08:45
it was bred to be cold tolerant
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它耐寒性强
08:48
to have in peoples aquaria.
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用于装点水族馆
08:50
It's very pretty,
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非常漂亮
08:52
and it has rapidly started
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它开始迅速地
08:54
to overgrow
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过度生长
08:56
the once very rich
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侵占了一度
08:58
biodiversity of the
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生物种类繁多的
09:00
northwestern Mediterranean.
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地中海西北部
09:02
I don't know how many of you remember the movie
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我不知道你们中间有多少人记得这部电影
09:04
"The Little Shop of Horrors,"
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"异形奇花”
09:06
but this is the plant of "The Little Shop of Horrors."
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这就是"异形奇花”中的植物
09:09
But, instead of devouring the people in the shop,
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它没有吞噬小店里的人们
09:12
what it's doing is overgrowing
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而是疯狂生长
09:14
and smothering
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扼杀了
09:16
virtually all of the bottom-dwelling life
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几乎所有的海底生物
09:19
of the entire northwestern
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遍及整个
09:22
Mediterranean Sea.
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地中海西北部
09:24
We don't know anything that eats it,
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我们还未发现能够消灭它的东西
09:26
we're trying to do all sorts of genetics
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我们在尝试各种基因工程
09:28
and figure out something that could be done,
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来寻找解决办法
09:31
but, as it stands, it's the monster from hell,
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但是，就目前来说，它就是来自地狱的恶魔
09:34
about which nobody knows what to do.
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人们对它无能为力
09:37
Now another form of pollution
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现在我们来看另一种污染
09:40
that's biological pollution
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生物污染
09:42
is what happens from excess nutrients.
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来源于过量的营养素
09:44
The green revolution,
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绿色革命
09:46
all of this artificial nitrogen fertilizer, we use too much of it.
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让我们过度使用人工氮肥
09:49
It's subsidized, which is one of the reasons we used too much of it.
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政府补助，是我们过度使用的原因之一
09:52
It runs down the rivers,
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它沿河流而下
09:54
and it feeds the plankton,
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被浮游生物吸食
09:56
the little microscopic plant cells
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就是那些极小的植物细胞
09:58
in the coastal water.
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生长于沿海水域
10:00
But since we ate all the oysters
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但是由于我们吃光了所有的牡蛎
10:02
and we ate all the fish that would eat the plankton,
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和所有吞食这些浮游生物的鱼类
10:04
there's nothing to eat the plankton
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没有生物再去吞食这些浮游生物
10:06
and there's more and more of it,
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所以它们越长越多
10:08
so it dies of old age,
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直到自然死亡
10:10
which is unheard of for plankton.
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对浮游生物来说这是前所未有的
10:12
And when it dies, it falls to the bottom
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死亡后它沉入水底
10:14
and then it rots,
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然后腐烂
10:16
which means that bacteria break it down.
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这就意味着细菌会将它分解
10:18
And in the process
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在此过程中
10:20
they use up all the oxygen,
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它们耗尽了所有的氧气
10:22
and in using up all the oxygen
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在所有的氧气被耗尽之后
10:24
they make the environment utterly lethal
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就给任何无法游走的生物
10:26
for anything that can't swim away.
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造成一个完全致命的环境
10:28
So, what we end up with
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最后我们所得到的
10:30
is a microbial zoo
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就是一个微生物动物园
10:32
dominated by bacteria
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被细菌所控制
10:34
and jellyfish, as you see
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还有水母，你们看
10:36
on the left in front of you.
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在你们的左前方
10:38
And the only fishery left --
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仅存的一个渔场
10:40
and it is a commercial fishery --
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商业渔场
10:42
is the jellyfish fishery
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是个水母渔场
10:44
you see on the right, where there used to be prawns.
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再看你们的右边，曾经有过对虾
10:46
Even in Newfoundland
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甚至在纽芬兰岛
10:48
where we used to catch cod,
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我们曾经捕捞鳕鱼的地方
10:50
we now have a jellyfish fishery.
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现在也有一个水母渔场
10:53
And another version of this sort of thing
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这类状况的另一个翻版
10:55
is what is often called red tides
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就是我们经常所说的红潮
10:57
or toxic blooms.
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即有毒水华
10:59
That picture on the left is just staggering to me.
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这张照片简直触目惊心
11:02
I have talked about it a million times,
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我已经谈论过无数次了
11:04
but it's unbelievable.
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但它还是令人难以置信
11:06
In the upper right of that picture on the left
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在左边那张照片的右上角
11:08
is almost the Mississippi Delta,
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是密西西比三角洲
11:10
and the lower left of that picture
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那张照片的左下角
11:12
is the Texas-Mexico border.
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是德克萨斯和墨西哥交界处
11:14
You're looking at the entire
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你们所看到的是整个
11:16
northwestern Gulf of Mexico;
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墨西哥湾西北部
11:18
you're looking at one toxic
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你们所看到的是一个有毒的
11:20
dinoflagellate bloom that can kill fish,
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可以杀死鱼类的腰鞭毛虫水华
11:22
made by that beautiful little creature
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就是那些漂亮的小生物
11:24
on the lower right.
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在右下角
11:26
And in the upper right you see this
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在右上角你们可以看到
11:28
black sort of cloud
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黑色的云团
11:30
moving ashore.
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向岸边移动
11:32
That's the same species.
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那是同样的生物
11:34
And as it comes to shore and the wind blows,
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当它飘到岸边，风开始刮起
11:37
and little droplets of the water get into the air,
297
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小水珠进入空气
11:40
the emergency rooms of all the hospitals fill up
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所有医院的急症室就挤满了
11:43
with people with acute respiratory distress.
299
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急性呼吸窘迫症患者
11:45
And that's retirement homes
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那是老人院
11:47
on the west coast of Florida.
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在佛罗里达西海岸
11:49
A friend and I did this thing in Hollywood
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我和一个朋友在好莱坞演讲
11:51
we called Hollywood ocean night,
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我们称之为好莱坞海洋之夜
11:53
and I was trying to figure out how to
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我在琢磨着怎样
11:55
explain to actors what's going on.
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向演员们解释目前的状况
11:57
And I said,
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我说，
11:59
"So, imagine you're in a movie called 'Escape from Malibu'
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“好的，想象你身处一部叫做‘逃离马里布海滩’的电影
12:02
because all the beautiful people have moved
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因为所有的俊男美女都
12:04
to North Dakota, where it's clean and safe.
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搬到了干净安全的北达科它州
12:06
And the only people who are left there
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这儿剩下的
12:08
are the people who can't afford
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都是那些没钱
12:11
to move away from the coast,
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搬离海边的人
12:13
because the coast, instead of being paradise,
313
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因为海边不再是天堂
12:16
is harmful to your health."
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而会摧毁你的健康。”
12:18
And then this is amazing.
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这又是触目惊心。
12:20
It was when I was on holiday last early autumn in France.
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这是我去年初秋在法国度假时拍的
12:23
This is from the coast of Brittany,
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这是布里特尼海岸
12:25
which is being enveloped
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被覆盖在
12:27
in this green, algal slime.
319
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一片绿色海藻泥下
12:30
The reason that it attracted so much attention,
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它之所以引起这么多关注的原因
12:33
besides the fact that it's disgusting,
321
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除了它确实极其恶心之外
12:36
is that sea birds flying over it
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也是因为海鸟飞过时
12:38
are asphyxiated by the smell and die,
323
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因臭味窒息而亡
12:41
and a farmer died of it,
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有一个农民也这样死去，
12:43
and you can imagine the scandal that happened.
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你们可以想象有此而滋生的丑闻
12:45
And so there's this war
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一场战争
12:47
between the farmers
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在农民
12:49
and the fishermen about it all,
328
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和渔夫之间爆发
12:51
and the net result is that
329
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最后的结果是
12:53
the beaches of Brittany have to be bulldozed of this stuff
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布里特尼海滩必须定期地
12:56
on a regular basis.
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铲除这些东西
12:58
And then, of course, there's climate change,
332
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当然还有气候变化
13:00
and we all know about climate change.
333
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我们都知道气候变化
13:02
I guess the iconic figure of it
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我想最具标志性的形象就是
13:04
is the melting of the ice
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就是北极海域
13:06
in the Arctic Sea.
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冰层的融化
13:08
Think about the thousands and thousands of people who died
337
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想想那成千上万个
13:11
trying to find the Northwest Passage.
338
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为寻找西北航道而死去的人们
13:14
Well, the Northwest Passage is already there.
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现在西北航道就在那里
13:16
I think it's sort of funny;
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我觉得这有点滑稽
13:18
it's on the Siberian coast,
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它地处西伯利亚海岸
13:20
maybe the Russians will charge tolls.
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也许俄国政府应当征收过路费
13:23
The governments of the world
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全世界的政府
13:25
are taking this really seriously.
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都在严肃对待这件事情
13:27
The military of the Arctic nations
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北极附近国家的军队
13:30
is taking it really seriously.
346
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都在严肃对待这件事情
13:33
For all the denial of climate change
347
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不管各国领导人
13:35
by government leaders,
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如何否认气候变化
13:37
the CIA
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美国中情局
13:39
and the navies of Norway
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挪威海军
13:41
and the U.S. and Canada, whatever
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美国和加拿大的海军，等等
13:44
are busily thinking about
352
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都在忙着考虑
13:46
how they will secure their territory
353
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如何从他们的角度
13:49
in this inevitability
354
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在这个无法避免的情势下
13:52
from their point of view.
355
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守住自己的地盘
13:54
And, of course, Arctic communities are toast.
356
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当然，北极群落就完蛋了
13:56
The other kinds of effects of climate change --
357
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气候变化的其它效应--
13:58
this is coral bleaching. It's a beautiful picture, right?
358
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这是珊瑚白化。右边，是一张美丽的照片
14:00
All that white coral.
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那么多白色的珊瑚
14:02
Except it's supposed to be brown.
360
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只不过它们本来应该是棕色的。
14:05
What happens is that
361
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事情的来由是
14:07
the corals are a symbiosis,
362
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珊瑚是一种共生生物
14:09
and they have these little algal cells
363
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有些微小的藻类细胞
14:11
that live inside them.
364
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生存在其内部
14:13
And the algae give the corals sugar,
365
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藻类为珊瑚提供糖分
14:15
and the corals give the algae
366
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珊瑚为藻类提供
14:17
nutrients and protection.
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养分和保护
14:19
But when it gets too hot,
368
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但当温度过高时
14:21
the algae can't make the sugar.
369
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藻类就无法制造糖分
14:23
The corals say, "You cheated. You didn't pay your rent."
370
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珊瑚就说，”你这个骗子，你不交房租。“
14:25
They kick them out, and then they die.
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于是就把它们赶出去，于是它们就死了。
14:28
Not all of them die; some of them survive,
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不是所有都死；有些存活下来了。
14:30
some more are surviving,
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还有更多的在存活着，
14:32
but it's really bad news.
374
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但这确实是个坏消息。
14:34
To try and give you a sense of this,
375
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让我试着帮助你们来感知一下，
14:36
imagine you go camping in July
376
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想象你七月份去露营
14:39
somewhere in Europe or in North America,
377
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3000
在欧洲或者北美的什么地方
14:42
and you wake up the next morning, and you look around you,
378
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2000
第二天早上醒来，你环顾四周，
14:44
and you see that 80 percent of the trees,
379
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发现百分之八十的树
14:46
as far as you can see,
380
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在你视线所及范围内
14:48
have dropped their leaves and are standing there naked.
381
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都已经掉光了树叶，光秃秃地立在那儿
14:51
And you come home, and you discover
382
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你回到家，发现
14:53
that 80 percent of all the trees
383
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北美和欧洲
14:55
in North America and in Europe
384
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百分之八十的树
14:57
have dropped their leaves.
385
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都已经掉光了它们的叶子
14:59
And then you read in the paper a few weeks later,
386
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然后几个星期之后你在报纸上看到
15:01
"Oh, by the way, a quarter of those died."
387
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3000
噢，顺便说一下，四分之一的树都死了。
15:04
Well, that's what happened in the Indian Ocean
388
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3000
那就是印度洋所发生的状况
15:07
during the 1998 El Nino,
389
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在1998年厄尔尼诺现象过程中，
15:09
an area vastly greater
390
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在一个面积大大超过
15:11
than the size of North America and Europe,
391
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北美和欧洲的区域
15:13
when 80 percent of all the corals bleached
392
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3000
百分之八十的珊瑚发生了白化
15:16
and a quarter of them died.
393
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3000
四分之一珊瑚死去。
15:19
And then the really scary thing
394
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然而真正可怕的事情是
15:21
about all of this --
395
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所有这些
15:23
the overfishing, the pollution and the climate change --
396
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过度捕捞，污染，和气候变化
15:26
is that each thing doesn't happen in a vacuum.
397
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每件事都并非发生在真空里，
15:29
But there are these, what we call, positive feedbacks,
398
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但是因为存在着所谓的积极反馈
15:32
the synergies among them
399
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它们之间的协同作用
15:34
that make the whole vastly greater
400
919000
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使得整体效应远远大于
15:36
than the sum of the parts.
401
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局部的总和。
15:38
And the great scientific challenge
402
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最大的科学挑战
15:41
for people like me in thinking about all this,
403
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对于象我这样思考这些问题的人
15:44
is do we know how
404
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就是我们是否知道如何
15:46
to put Humpty Dumpty back together again?
405
931000
3000
把摔碎的蛋形人重新修复？
15:49
I mean, because we, at this point, we can protect it.
406
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我是说，因为我们现在还可以保护它。
15:52
But what does that mean?
407
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但那意味着什么？
15:54
We really don't know.
408
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我们真的不知道
15:57
So what are the oceans going to be like
409
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那么在20或50年之后
16:00
in 20 or 50 years?
410
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海洋会是一副什么景象？
16:03
Well, there won't be any fish
411
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不会再有鱼
16:05
except for minnows,
412
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除了一些小鲦鱼，
16:07
and the water will be pretty dirty,
413
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海水会很肮脏
16:10
and all those kinds of things
414
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所有那些东西
16:12
and full of mercury, etc., etc.
415
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都充斥着水银，等等，等等
16:17
And dead zones will get bigger and bigger
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死亡区域会越变越大
16:19
and they'll start to merge,
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然后它们开始汇合
16:21
and we can imagine something like
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于是我们可以想象类似
16:23
the dead-zonification
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全球沿海地区的
16:25
of the global, coastal ocean.
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划分出死亡区域。
16:28
Then you sure won't want to eat fish that were raised in it,
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你肯定不会想吃那儿出产的鱼，
16:31
because it would be a kind of
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因为那简直就是
16:33
gastronomic Russian roulette.
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饮食的死亡赌博游戏
16:35
Sometimes you have a toxic bloom;
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有时你会碰上有毒水华
16:37
sometimes you don't.
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有时又没有
16:39
That doesn't sell.
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那是不会有市场的
16:41
The really scary things though
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但是真正可怕的
16:43
are the physical, chemical,
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是正在发生的物理的，化学的
16:46
oceanographic things that are happening.
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和海洋学的变化。
16:49
As the surface of the ocean gets warmer,
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当海洋表面温度升高，
16:52
the water is lighter when it's warmer,
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海水变轻，
16:54
it becomes harder and harder
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海洋变得越来越
16:56
to turn the ocean over.
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不易翻转。
16:58
We say it becomes
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我们称之为
17:00
more strongly stratified.
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越来越严重的层化
17:02
The consequence of that is that
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其后果是
17:04
all those nutrients
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所有的养分
17:06
that fuel the great anchoveta fisheries,
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那些供给大型鳀鱼渔场，
17:09
of the sardines of California
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加州沙丁渔场，
17:11
or in Peru or whatever,
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秘鲁或其它地方渔场的养分
17:14
those slow down
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都放慢了速度，
17:16
and those fisheries collapse.
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那些渔场就倒闭了。
17:18
And, at the same time,
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同时
17:20
water from the surface, which is rich in oxygen,
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表面氧气充足的海水
17:23
doesn't make it down
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无法下沉，
17:27
and the ocean turns into a desert.
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海洋就变成了沙漠。
17:30
So the question is: How are we all
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因此问题是：我们应该如何
17:32
going to respond to this?
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对此作出应对？
17:34
And we can do
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我们可以
17:36
all sorts of things to fix it,
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做各种事情来进行补救，
17:38
but in the final analysis,
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但最终，
17:40
the thing we really need to fix
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我们最需要补救的
17:42
is ourselves.
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是我们自己。
17:44
It's not about the fish; it's not about the pollution;
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这不是鱼，不是污染；
17:47
it's not about the climate change.
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也不是气候变化。
17:49
It's about us
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而是我们自己。
17:51
and our greed and our need for growth
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我们的贪婪和对增长的需求
17:54
and our inability to imagine a world
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以及我们无法想象
17:57
that is different from the selfish world
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一个不同于我们今天所生活的
17:59
we live in today.
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自私的世界。
18:01
So the question is: Will we respond to this or not?
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问题在于：我们是否将对此作出应对？
18:04
I would say that the future of life
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我要说生命的未来
18:06
and the dignity of human beings
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和人类的尊严
18:08
depends on our doing that.
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取决于我们作出回应。
18:10
Thank you. (Applause)
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谢谢。
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jeremy Jackson - Marine ecologistA leader in the study of the ecology and evolution of marine organisms, Jeremy Jackson is known for his deep understanding of geological time.
Why you should listen
Jeremy Jackson is the Ritter Professor of Oceanography and Director of the Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Painting pictures of changing marine environments, particularly coral reefs and the Isthmus of Panama, Jackson's research captures the extreme environmental decline of the oceans that has accelerated in the past 200 years.
Jackson's current work focuses on the future of the world’s oceans, given overfishing, habitat destruction and ocean warming, which have fundamentally changed marine ecosystems and led to "the rise of slime." Although Jackson's work describes grim circumstances, even garnering him the nickname Dr. Doom, he believes that successful management and conservation strategies can renew the ocean’s health.
Jeremy Jackson | Speaker | TED.com