Mission Blue Voyage
Jeremy Jackson: How we wrecked the ocean
傑瑞米．傑克森：我們如何摧毀海洋
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在這個令人振奮的演講中，珊瑚礁生態學家傑瑞米．傑克森講述怵目驚心的海洋環境現況：漁業過度捕撈、過熱、污染，以及環境逐漸惡化的警訊，並以駭人照片與統計資料呈現。
Jeremy Jackson - Marine ecologist
A leader in the study of the ecology and evolution of marine organisms, Jeremy Jackson is known for his deep understanding of geological time. Full bio
A leader in the study of the ecology and evolution of marine organisms, Jeremy Jackson is known for his deep understanding of geological time. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I'm an ecologist,
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我是生態學家，
00:18
mostly a coral reef ecologist.
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大多是做珊瑚礁生態研究。
00:20
I started out in Chesapeake Bay
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一開始我是從柴斯比克灣開始，
00:22
and went diving in the winter
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在寒冷的冬天潛入海水，
00:24
and became a tropical ecologist overnight.
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但一夜之間我成了熱帶生態學家，
00:27
And it was really a lot of fun
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這是一件很棒的事，
00:30
for about 10 years.
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大概持續了十年左右。
00:32
I mean, somebody pays you
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我是說，有人付錢請你
00:34
to go around and travel
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四處遊歷，
00:36
and look at some of the most
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尋找一些這世界上
00:38
beautiful places on the planet.
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最美麗的地方，
00:40
And that was what I did.
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而那就是我的工作。
00:43
And I ended up in Jamaica,
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最後我來到西印度群島的
00:45
in the West Indies,
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牙買加，
00:47
where the coral reefs were really
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那裡的珊瑚礁
00:49
among the most extraordinary, structurally,
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是我所見過最特別、
00:51
that I ever saw in my life.
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也是最完整的一個。
00:54
And this picture here,
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這張照片很有趣，
00:56
it's really interesting, it shows two things:
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它隱含了兩個涵意。
00:58
First of all, it's in black and white
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首先，這是黑白的，
01:00
because the water was so clear
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因為海水非常清澈，
01:02
and you could see so far,
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所以你可以看到很遠，
01:04
and film was so slow
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而且在1960和70年代初期，
01:06
in the 1960s and early 70s,
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照片還不普及，
01:08
you took pictures in black and white.
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所以只能拍黑白照片。
01:10
The other thing it shows you
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另外一個涵意是，
01:12
is that, although there's this beautiful
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雖然整個珊瑚森林
01:14
forest of coral,
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非常美麗，
01:16
there are no fish in that picture.
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在照片裡卻連隻魚都沒有。
01:19
Those reefs at Discovery Bay, Jamaica
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這些在牙買加發現灣的珊瑚礁，
01:22
were the most studied coral reefs
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是世界上近二十年來，被研究得
01:24
in the world for 20 years.
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最透徹的珊瑚礁，
01:26
We were the best and the brightest.
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我們有最好、最棒的珊瑚礁。
01:28
People came to study our reefs from Australia,
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還有人遠從澳洲來研究這些珊瑚礁，
01:31
which is sort of funny
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想想有點好笑，
01:33
because now we go to theirs.
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因為我們現在還得去他們那裡觀摩。
01:35
And the view of scientists
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科學家對於
01:38
about how coral reefs work, how they ought to be,
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珊瑚礁如何運作、演變的概念，
01:41
was based on these reefs
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全都來自於這些
01:43
without any fish.
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沒有魚的珊瑚礁。
01:45
Then, in 1980,
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1980年時，
01:47
there was a hurricane, Hurricane Allen.
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颶風艾倫來襲，
01:50
I put half the lab
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我把半間實驗室
01:52
up in my house.
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建在家裡。
01:54
The wind blew very strong.
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風非常強，
01:56
The waves were 25
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而浪有25到
01:59
to 50 feet high.
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50英呎(8~16公尺)高，
02:01
And the reefs disappeared, and new islands formed,
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然後珊瑚礁消失，形成新島嶼。
02:04
and we thought, "Well, we're real smart.
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我們想，「好吧，還好我們很聰明，
02:06
We know that hurricanes
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知道颶風
02:08
have always happened in the past."
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從以前就常常來襲。」
02:10
And we published a paper in Science,
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所以我們在《科學》期刊上發表了一篇論文，
02:12
the first time that anybody ever
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這是第一次有人報導
02:14
described the destruction
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大型颶風對珊瑚礁
02:16
on a coral reef by a major hurricane.
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所造成的破壞，
02:19
And we predicted what would happen,
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我們也預測了之後會發生什麼事。
02:21
and we got it all wrong.
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結果我們都錯了。
02:23
And the reason was
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真正的原因是因為
02:25
because of overfishing,
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過度捕撈，
02:28
and the fact that a last common grazer,
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連最後的掠食者
02:31
a sea urchin, died.
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海膽也消失了。
02:34
And within a few months
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而在幾個月之內，
02:36
after that sea urchin dying, the seaweed started to grow.
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海膽逐漸死亡，海藻便開始生長。
02:39
And that is the same reef;
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這是十五年前，
02:41
that's the same reef 15 years ago;
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同一個珊瑚礁的照片，
02:43
that's the same reef today.
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然後這是現在的珊瑚礁。
02:46
The coral reefs of the north coast of Jamaica
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牙買加北岸的珊瑚礁
02:49
have a few percent live coral cover
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只剩極少的珊瑚存活，
02:52
and a lot of seaweed and slime.
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其他大多是海藻或爛泥。
02:54
And that's more or less the story
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這或多或少就是
02:56
of the coral reefs of the Caribbean,
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加勒比海珊瑚礁的遭遇，
02:58
and increasingly, tragically,
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也是世界上其他更多、
03:01
the coral reefs worldwide.
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更可悲的珊瑚礁的遭遇。
03:03
Now, that's my little, depressing story.
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這是我個人哀傷的親身經歷，
03:06
All of us in our 60s and 70s
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而在60和70年代，很多人
03:09
have comparable depressing stories.
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都有類似的遭遇，
03:12
There are tens of thousands
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世界上還有成千上萬個
03:14
of those stories out there,
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這樣的故事。
03:16
and it's really hard to conjure up
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很難想像
03:18
much of a sense of well-being,
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一切會逐漸好轉過來，
03:20
because it just keeps getting worse.
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因為情況一直在惡化，
03:22
And the reason it keeps getting worse
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而會持續惡化的原因是，
03:24
is that after a natural catastrophe,
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在經過颶風
03:27
like a hurricane,
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這樣的自然災害後，
03:31
it used to be that there was
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本來應該會透過
03:33
some kind of successional sequence of recovery,
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消長演替而自然好轉的珊瑚礁，
03:36
but what's going on now is that
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現在則因為
03:39
overfishing and pollution and climate change
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漁業過度捕撈、污染還有氣候變遷等
03:42
are all interacting
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互相影響，
03:44
in a way that prevents that.
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而使自然消長無法進行。
03:46
And so I'm going to sort of go through
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所以我接下來會
03:48
and talk about those three
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一一解釋
03:50
kinds of things.
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這三件事情。
03:52
We hear a lot about
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(過度捕撈)大家都聽過很多
03:54
the collapse of cod.
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關於鱈魚捕撈業瓦解的事情，
03:56
It's difficult to imagine that
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很難想像有二次，
03:58
two, or some historians would say three world wars
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或者有些歷史學家說三次世界大戰，
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were fought during the colonial era
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都是為了要控制鱈魚，
04:04
for the control of cod.
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而在殖民時期爆發。
04:06
Cod fed most of the people of Western Europe.
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鱈魚養活了西歐大部分的人口，
04:09
It fed the slaves
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也養活了
04:11
brought to the Antilles,
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從安地列斯群島來的奴隸。
04:14
the song "Jamaica Farewell" --
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"再會牙買加"這首歌中有一句：
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"Ackee rice salt fish are nice" --
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"阿開木果、米飯、鹹魚亦可口"
04:18
is an emblem of the importance
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便象徵著
04:21
of salt cod from northeastern Canada.
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加拿大東北鹽漬鱈魚的重要性。
04:24
It all collapsed in the 80s and the 90s:
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但在80和90年代整個鱈魚漁業瓦解，
04:27
35,000 people lost their jobs.
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三萬五千人失業，
04:30
And that was the beginning
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而這只是一連串
04:32
of a kind of serial depletion
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資源耗竭的開端，
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from bigger and tastier species
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原本你有好吃的大魚，
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to smaller and not-so-tasty species,
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後來只能吃不那麼可口的小魚；
04:39
from species that were near to home
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原本只捕撈鄰近的漁種，
04:41
to species that were all around the world,
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後來開始捕撈世界各地的其他漁種，
04:44
and what have you.
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這都是我們自己造成的。
04:46
It's a little hard to understand that,
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這或許不大容易理解，
04:48
because you can go to a Costco in the United States
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因為在美國，你可以在好市多
04:51
and buy cheap fish.
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買到便宜的魚，
04:53
You ought to read the label to find out where it came from,
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你得從標籤上才能知道這魚是從哪來的，
04:55
but it's still cheap,
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但那還是很便宜，
04:57
and everybody thinks it's okay.
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所以大家覺得這沒什麼。
04:59
It's hard to communicate this,
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我覺得很難對大眾講清楚這個道理，
05:01
and one way that I think is really interesting
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但我覺得可以舉休閒釣魚這個有趣的例子，
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is to talk about sport fish,
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來讓大家瞭解這個道理，
05:07
because people like to go out and catch fish.
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因為大家都喜歡到戶外抓魚，
05:10
It's one of those things.
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這便是其中之一。
05:12
This picture here shows the trophy fish,
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這張照片是大獎魚，
05:15
the biggest fish caught
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也就是參賽者裡所釣到最大隻的魚，
05:17
by people who pay a lot of money
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這些參賽者會花大把銀子
05:19
to get on a boat,
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去搭船，
05:21
go to a place off of Key West in Florida,
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到佛羅里達州的西嶼某處，
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drink a lot of beer,
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拼命灌啤酒、
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throw a lot of hooks and lines into the water,
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下很多魚鉤，
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come back with the biggest and the best fish,
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然後帶著最大最好的魚回來，
05:31
and the champion trophy fish
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而最大的冠軍魚，
05:33
are put on this board, where people take a picture,
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會被放到這板子上給人拍照，
05:36
and this guy is obviously
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而這傢伙顯然
05:38
really excited about that fish.
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非常興奮。
05:41
Well, that's what it's like now,
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也許現在是這樣，
05:43
but this is what it was like in the 1950s
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但這是1950年時
05:45
from the same boat in the same place
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從同一條船上，
05:48
on the same board on the same dock.
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在同一個地點同一個碼頭的同一塊板子上拍的
05:51
The trophy fish
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大獎魚，
05:53
were so big
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那條魚超大，
05:55
that you couldn't put any of those small fish up on it.
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大到其他的小魚都放不下，
05:58
And the average size trophy fish
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那時大獎魚的平均重量
06:00
weighed 250 to 300 pounds, goliath grouper,
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是250到300磅，像巨人哥利亞一樣。
06:03
and if you wanted to go out and kill something,
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你如果想到外面去捕點魚，
06:05
you could pretty much count on
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便很有可能會
06:07
being able to catch one of those fish.
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釣到一條像這樣的魚，
06:09
And they tasted really good.
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而且真的很好吃。
06:11
And people paid less in 1950 dollars
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在1950年代要釣到這樣的魚，
06:14
to catch that
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比現在便宜多了，
06:16
than what people pay now
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而現在只能抓到
06:18
to catch those little, tiny fish.
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那些小小的魚，
06:21
And that's everywhere.
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到處都只能看到這些小魚。
06:23
It's not just the fish, though,
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消失的
06:25
that are disappearing.
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不只是魚而已。
06:27
Industrial fishing uses big stuff,
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商業捕撈用的是大傢伙、
06:30
big machinery.
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大機具，
06:32
We use nets that are 20 miles long.
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他們用的漁網有20哩(32公里)長，
06:34
We use longlines
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他們也使用上面有
06:36
that have one million or two million hooks.
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一兩百萬個魚鉤的延繩釣線，
06:39
And we trawl,
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還有底拖網，
06:41
which means to take something
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也就是把一個
06:43
the size of a tractor trailer truck
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大得像連結車、
06:45
that weighs thousands and thousands of pounds,
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重達幾千磅的東西
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put it on a big chain,
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裝上鐵鍊，
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and drag it across the sea floor
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然後拖過海底，
06:52
to stir up the bottom and catch the fish.
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把底部亂攪一通來捕魚。
06:55
Think of it as
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這就像是
06:58
being kind of the bulldozing of a city
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摧毀一整個城市
07:00
or of a forest,
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或森林一樣，
07:02
because it clears it away.
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一掃而空，
07:04
And the habitat destruction
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造成難以想像
07:06
is unbelievable.
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的棲地破壞。
07:08
This is a photograph,
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這是
07:10
a typical photograph,
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世界上典型
07:12
of what the continental shelves
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大陸棚區
07:14
of the world look like.
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的照片，
07:16
You can see the rows in the bottom,
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你可以看到海底有一條條的痕跡，
07:19
the way you can see the rows
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那一條條的痕跡就像是
07:21
in a field that has just been plowed
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剛犁好田的土地，
07:23
to plant corn.
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要來種玉米。
07:25
What that was, was a forest of sponges and coral,
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而這從前是海綿和珊瑚的叢林，
07:28
which is a critical habitat
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是魚類生長發育的
07:30
for the development of fish.
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重要棲地，
07:32
What it is now is mud,
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現在變成一堆泥土。
07:35
and the area of the ocean floor
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整個海底被破壞，
07:38
that has been transformed from forest
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從森林變成
07:41
to level mud, to parking lot,
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泥地，再變成停車場，
07:43
is equivalent to the entire area
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整個被破壞的面積相當於
07:46
of all the forests
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人類歷史上
07:48
that have ever been cut down
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曾在地球上
07:50
on all of the earth
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砍伐過的
07:52
in the history of humanity.
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所有森林的總面積。
07:54
We've managed to do that
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而這已經持續了
07:56
in the last 100 to 150 years.
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一百到一百五十年。
08:00
We tend to think of oil spills
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（污染）我們常會先想到漏油
08:02
and mercury
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或水銀，
08:04
and we hear a lot about plastic these days.
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還有最近常聽到的塑膠產品，
08:06
And all of that stuff is really disgusting,
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這些東西都很討人厭，
08:08
but what's really insidious
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但最棘手的是
08:10
is the biological pollution that happens
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生物污染，
08:13
because of the magnitude of the shifts
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會使整個生態體系，
08:16
that it causes
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產生大規模
08:18
to entire ecosystems.
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的轉變。
08:20
And I'm going to just talk very briefly
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我在這裡只簡單講
08:22
about two kinds of biological pollution:
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兩種生物污染，
08:25
one is introduced species
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一個是外來種，
08:27
and the other is what comes from nutrients.
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另外一個則因養分滋養而大量繁殖。
08:30
So this is the infamous
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這是惡名昭彰的
08:32
Caulerpa taxifolia,
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Caulerpa taxifolia（羽毛藻），
08:34
the so-called killer algae.
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又叫殺手藻，
08:37
A book was written about it.
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有一本書專門在講這種藻類。
08:39
It's a bit of an embarrassment.
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尷尬的是，
08:41
It was accidentally released
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這是不小心從
08:43
from the aquarium in Monaco,
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摩納哥的水族館裡跑出來的。
08:45
it was bred to be cold tolerant
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這是人類培養的耐冷藻類，
08:48
to have in peoples aquaria.
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可以養在水族箱裡，
08:50
It's very pretty,
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很漂亮，
08:52
and it has rapidly started
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一下子就大量繁殖起來，
08:54
to overgrow
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覆蓋了
08:56
the once very rich
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曾經有
08:58
biodiversity of the
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豐富多樣性物種的
09:00
northwestern Mediterranean.
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地中海西北海岸。
09:02
I don't know how many of you remember the movie
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我不知道有多少人還記得
09:04
"The Little Shop of Horrors,"
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《異形奇花》這部電影，
09:06
but this is the plant of "The Little Shop of Horrors."
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這藻類就是裡面那朵花，
09:09
But, instead of devouring the people in the shop,
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但它不會吃掉店裡的人，
09:12
what it's doing is overgrowing
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它反而是拼命繁殖，
09:14
and smothering
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然後把所有
09:16
virtually all of the bottom-dwelling life
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地中海西北岸
09:19
of the entire northwestern
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的底棲生物
09:22
Mediterranean Sea.
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都給悶死。
09:24
We don't know anything that eats it,
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我們不知道有什麼生物會吃它們，
09:26
we're trying to do all sorts of genetics
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也試著用遺傳工程
09:28
and figure out something that could be done,
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或是其他任何方法來解決，
09:31
but, as it stands, it's the monster from hell,
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但是它們還在，像是從地獄來的怪物，
09:34
about which nobody knows what to do.
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沒人知道該拿它們怎麼辦。
09:37
Now another form of pollution
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另外一種污染則是
09:40
that's biological pollution
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因為養分過多所造成的
09:42
is what happens from excess nutrients.
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生物污染。
09:44
The green revolution,
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農業改革後，
09:46
all of this artificial nitrogen fertilizer, we use too much of it.
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人類大量使用化學氮肥，
09:49
It's subsidized, which is one of the reasons we used too much of it.
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政府還會補助，這也是為什麼農民總是用太多肥料的原因。
09:52
It runs down the rivers,
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剩下的肥料則被河流帶走，
09:54
and it feeds the plankton,
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滋養浮游植物，
09:56
the little microscopic plant cells
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就是生長在近岸海域裡的
09:58
in the coastal water.
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微小植物。
10:00
But since we ate all the oysters
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但我們已經把牡蠣
10:02
and we ate all the fish that would eat the plankton,
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還有會吃浮游植物的魚給吃光了，
10:04
there's nothing to eat the plankton
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所以沒有生物會吃浮游植物，
10:06
and there's more and more of it,
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浮游植物不斷累積，
10:08
so it dies of old age,
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他們在很老的時候才會死掉，
10:10
which is unheard of for plankton.
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這對浮游植物來說是很少見的情形。
10:12
And when it dies, it falls to the bottom
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浮游植物死後，會沈降到海底，
10:14
and then it rots,
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開始腐化，
10:16
which means that bacteria break it down.
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也就是被細菌分解；
10:18
And in the process
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在這整個過程中，
10:20
they use up all the oxygen,
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會消耗掉所有氧氣，
10:22
and in using up all the oxygen
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當氧氣用完時，
10:24
they make the environment utterly lethal
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對無法游走的生物來說，
10:26
for anything that can't swim away.
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那裡就成了足以致命的危險地帶。
10:28
So, what we end up with
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結果那裡就變成
10:30
is a microbial zoo
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微生物的天堂，
10:32
dominated by bacteria
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由細菌
10:34
and jellyfish, as you see
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和水母主宰，就如同
10:36
on the left in front of you.
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左邊這張照片一樣。
10:38
And the only fishery left --
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這時唯一剩下的漁業，
10:40
and it is a commercial fishery --
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唯一還有利可圖的漁業，
10:42
is the jellyfish fishery
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就是水母捕撈，
10:44
you see on the right, where there used to be prawns.
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像右邊這張，以前這裡是抓明蝦的。
10:46
Even in Newfoundland
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甚至在紐芬蘭，
10:48
where we used to catch cod,
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以前抓鱈魚的漁場，
10:50
we now have a jellyfish fishery.
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現在也在捕水母。
10:53
And another version of this sort of thing
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另一個類似的例子是
10:55
is what is often called red tides
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人們所稱的紅潮，
10:57
or toxic blooms.
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或是有毒藻華。
10:59
That picture on the left is just staggering to me.
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這張照片嚇了我一大跳，
11:02
I have talked about it a million times,
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我談過紅潮至少上百萬次，
11:04
but it's unbelievable.
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但還是很難令人相信。
11:06
In the upper right of that picture on the left
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左邊這張照片的右上方，
11:08
is almost the Mississippi Delta,
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是密西西比河三角洲，
11:10
and the lower left of that picture
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左下方則是
11:12
is the Texas-Mexico border.
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德州以及墨西哥邊界。
11:14
You're looking at the entire
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你看到的是整個
11:16
northwestern Gulf of Mexico;
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墨西哥灣的西北部，
11:18
you're looking at one toxic
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還有能殺死魚類的
11:20
dinoflagellate bloom that can kill fish,
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有毒甲藻藻華，
11:22
made by that beautiful little creature
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他們是由右下方那美麗、
11:24
on the lower right.
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可愛的小生物所製造的。
11:26
And in the upper right you see this
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在右上方，
11:28
black sort of cloud
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你會看到一片像烏雲的東西，
11:30
moving ashore.
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正在靠近海岸，
11:32
That's the same species.
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他們是同一種生物。
11:34
And as it comes to shore and the wind blows,
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而當它們靠近岸邊，風一吹，
11:37
and little droplets of the water get into the air,
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就會把這些小水滴隨風帶走，
11:40
the emergency rooms of all the hospitals fill up
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然後急診室裡就會擠滿
11:43
with people with acute respiratory distress.
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患有急性呼吸窘迫症的人。
11:45
And that's retirement homes
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這是佛羅里達州西岸
11:47
on the west coast of Florida.
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的退休老人住宅，
11:49
A friend and I did this thing in Hollywood
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我和我朋友曾一起辦過
11:51
we called Hollywood ocean night,
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好萊塢海洋之夜，
11:53
and I was trying to figure out how to
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我們想讓演員們了解
11:55
explain to actors what's going on.
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海洋到底發生了什麼事，
11:57
And I said,
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我說：
11:59
"So, imagine you're in a movie called 'Escape from Malibu'
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「想像你在一部叫「馬里布大逃亡」的電影裡，
12:02
because all the beautiful people have moved
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那些美麗的人
12:04
to North Dakota, where it's clean and safe.
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都搬到北達科他，因為那裡乾淨又安全，
12:06
And the only people who are left there
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而留下來的人則
12:08
are the people who can't afford
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都是因為負擔不起，
12:11
to move away from the coast,
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所以才無法從海邊搬走，
12:13
because the coast, instead of being paradise,
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因為曾經是美麗天堂的海灘，
12:16
is harmful to your health."
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現在變成有害健康的海灘了。」
12:18
And then this is amazing.
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這真的很驚人，
12:20
It was when I was on holiday last early autumn in France.
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我去年秋天在法國渡假的時候就有碰到，
12:23
This is from the coast of Brittany,
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這是布列塔尼海岸，
12:25
which is being enveloped
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整個海岸都被
12:27
in this green, algal slime.
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綠色黏呼呼的藻類包圍起來。
12:30
The reason that it attracted so much attention,
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之所以會引起這麼多的注意，
12:33
besides the fact that it's disgusting,
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是因為除了很噁心之外，
12:36
is that sea birds flying over it
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海鳥飛過去
12:38
are asphyxiated by the smell and die,
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還會因太臭而窒息死亡，
12:41
and a farmer died of it,
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而且還死了一個農夫，
12:43
and you can imagine the scandal that happened.
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所以你可以想像會變成怎樣的醜聞。
12:45
And so there's this war
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農民和漁民
12:47
between the farmers
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為了這件事情，
12:49
and the fishermen about it all,
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爭執不休，
12:51
and the net result is that
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結果就是
12:53
the beaches of Brittany have to be bulldozed of this stuff
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得定期把這東西
12:56
on a regular basis.
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從布列塔尼海灘鏟走。
12:58
And then, of course, there's climate change,
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當然還有氣候變遷，
13:00
and we all know about climate change.
333
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大家都知道氣候變遷，
13:02
I guess the iconic figure of it
334
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我猜最有代表性的
13:04
is the melting of the ice
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大概就是北極海冰融化
13:06
in the Arctic Sea.
336
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的那張照片。
13:08
Think about the thousands and thousands of people who died
337
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想想有多少人為了
13:11
trying to find the Northwest Passage.
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尋找西北航道而喪失性命，
13:14
Well, the Northwest Passage is already there.
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嗯，現在西北航道已經在那裡了。
13:16
I think it's sort of funny;
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這有點好笑，
13:18
it's on the Siberian coast,
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因為那是在西伯利亞海岸，
13:20
maybe the Russians will charge tolls.
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所以俄羅斯可能會收過路費。
13:23
The governments of the world
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世界各國
13:25
are taking this really seriously.
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都很重視這個問題，
13:27
The military of the Arctic nations
345
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尤其是北極區內各國
13:30
is taking it really seriously.
346
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的軍事機構。
13:33
For all the denial of climate change
347
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雖然政府首長
13:35
by government leaders,
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都否認有氣候變遷，
13:37
the CIA
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但挪威、美國
13:39
and the navies of Norway
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和加拿大等國的中情局
13:41
and the U.S. and Canada, whatever
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以及海軍，
13:44
are busily thinking about
352
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都不停地從自己國家
13:46
how they will secure their territory
353
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的角度思考，
13:49
in this inevitability
354
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在這無可避免的情況下，
13:52
from their point of view.
355
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要如何保衛領土。
13:54
And, of course, Arctic communities are toast.
356
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當然，北極圈的居民早就已經輸了。
13:56
The other kinds of effects of climate change --
357
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氣候變遷的另外一個影響，
13:58
this is coral bleaching. It's a beautiful picture, right?
358
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是珊瑚白化。這張照片很美，沒錯，
14:00
All that white coral.
359
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全是白化的珊瑚，
14:02
Except it's supposed to be brown.
360
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他們本來應該是褐色的。
14:05
What happens is that
361
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實情是，
14:07
the corals are a symbiosis,
362
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這些珊瑚是共生體，
14:09
and they have these little algal cells
363
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有一些小小的藻類細胞
14:11
that live inside them.
364
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生活在珊瑚體內，
14:13
And the algae give the corals sugar,
365
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藻類供給珊瑚醣份，
14:15
and the corals give the algae
366
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然後珊瑚則提供
14:17
nutrients and protection.
367
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養分和保護給這些藻類；
14:19
But when it gets too hot,
368
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但太熱的時候，
14:21
the algae can't make the sugar.
369
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藻類就不會產生醣份，
14:23
The corals say, "You cheated. You didn't pay your rent."
370
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珊瑚說：「你這騙子！你沒有付房租」，
14:25
They kick them out, and then they die.
371
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就把他們踢出去，然後珊瑚就死了。
14:28
Not all of them die; some of them survive,
372
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並不是所有珊瑚都會死掉，
14:30
some more are surviving,
373
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有些會活下來，
14:32
but it's really bad news.
374
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但這實在是個壞消息。
14:34
To try and give you a sense of this,
375
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為了讓你們對這稍微有點概念，
14:36
imagine you go camping in July
376
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想像一下你在七月的時候，
14:39
somewhere in Europe or in North America,
377
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3000
到歐洲或北美某處露營，
14:42
and you wake up the next morning, and you look around you,
378
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2000
第二天早上醒來，你看看四周，
14:44
and you see that 80 percent of the trees,
379
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發現視野所及
14:46
as far as you can see,
380
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八成的樹，
14:48
have dropped their leaves and are standing there naked.
381
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3000
葉子都掉光了，光禿禿的。
14:51
And you come home, and you discover
382
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你回家以後發現，
14:53
that 80 percent of all the trees
383
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整個北美和歐洲，
14:55
in North America and in Europe
384
880000
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八成以上的樹
14:57
have dropped their leaves.
385
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2000
葉子全都掉光了；
14:59
And then you read in the paper a few weeks later,
386
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2000
然後幾週後你在報紙上看到，
15:01
"Oh, by the way, a quarter of those died."
387
886000
3000
喔，有四分之一的樹已經死了。
15:04
Well, that's what happened in the Indian Ocean
388
889000
3000
這就是印度洋在1998年聖嬰現象時，
15:07
during the 1998 El Nino,
389
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2000
所發生的事情，
15:09
an area vastly greater
390
894000
2000
這個區域
15:11
than the size of North America and Europe,
391
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2000
比北美加上歐洲還要大，
15:13
when 80 percent of all the corals bleached
392
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3000
有八成的珊瑚白化，
15:16
and a quarter of them died.
393
901000
3000
而四分之一的珊瑚死亡。
15:19
And then the really scary thing
394
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然而真正可怕的
15:21
about all of this --
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是把這些全部加在一起：
15:23
the overfishing, the pollution and the climate change --
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過度捕撈、污染還有氣候變遷，
15:26
is that each thing doesn't happen in a vacuum.
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這些都不是憑空發生的，
15:29
But there are these, what we call, positive feedbacks,
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但他們卻會互相助長氣勢。
15:32
the synergies among them
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他們加在一起的綜效，
15:34
that make the whole vastly greater
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影響程度遠大於
15:36
than the sum of the parts.
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各自獨立加總的總和。
15:38
And the great scientific challenge
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對於我們科學家來說，
15:41
for people like me in thinking about all this,
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思考這些問題是很大的科學挑戰，
15:44
is do we know how
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我們是否知道，
15:46
to put Humpty Dumpty back together again?
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怎麼把支離破碎的碎片拼湊起來？
15:49
I mean, because we, at this point, we can protect it.
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我是說，就現階段來講，我們還可以保護海洋，
15:52
But what does that mean?
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但這又表示什麼？
15:54
We really don't know.
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我們真的不知道。
15:57
So what are the oceans going to be like
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海洋在未來的20到50年內，
16:00
in 20 or 50 years?
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究竟會變成什麼樣子呢？
16:03
Well, there won't be any fish
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海裡大概會只剩
16:05
except for minnows,
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一些小魚吧，
16:07
and the water will be pretty dirty,
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海水會變得很髒，
16:10
and all those kinds of things
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還充滿像是水銀
16:12
and full of mercury, etc., etc.
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還有其他類似的東西等等。
16:17
And dead zones will get bigger and bigger
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海洋死區會變得越來越大，
16:19
and they'll start to merge,
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變得可以互相合併，
16:21
and we can imagine something like
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我們可以想像海洋的
16:23
the dead-zonification
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「死區化」，
16:25
of the global, coastal ocean.
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會在全球和近岸海域發生。
16:28
Then you sure won't want to eat fish that were raised in it,
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你當然不會想吃那裡面的魚，
16:31
because it would be a kind of
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因為那簡直是
16:33
gastronomic Russian roulette.
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在玩食物的俄羅斯輪盤一樣，
16:35
Sometimes you have a toxic bloom;
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有時候會發生有毒藻華，
16:37
sometimes you don't.
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有時候又沒有，
16:39
That doesn't sell.
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那是賣不出去的。
16:41
The really scary things though
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真正可怕的事情是，
16:43
are the physical, chemical,
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目前海洋環境裡正在發生的
16:46
oceanographic things that are happening.
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物理、化學變化，
16:49
As the surface of the ocean gets warmer,
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當海洋表層變暖後，
16:52
the water is lighter when it's warmer,
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海水就會變輕，
16:54
it becomes harder and harder
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使得海水循環
16:56
to turn the ocean over.
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變得越來越困難，
16:58
We say it becomes
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也就是我們說的
17:00
more strongly stratified.
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明顯分層。
17:02
The consequence of that is that
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結果就是，
17:04
all those nutrients
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原來會進入
17:06
that fuel the great anchoveta fisheries,
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秘魯鯷魚漁場、
17:09
of the sardines of California
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加州沙丁魚漁場
17:11
or in Peru or whatever,
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等等的養份，
17:14
those slow down
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全都慢了下來，
17:16
and those fisheries collapse.
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然後這些漁場就瓦解了。
17:18
And, at the same time,
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同時，
17:20
water from the surface, which is rich in oxygen,
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表層充滿氧氣的海水，
17:23
doesn't make it down
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不會下沉，
17:27
and the ocean turns into a desert.
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海洋就變成了沙漠。
17:30
So the question is: How are we all
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現在的問題是：
17:32
going to respond to this?
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我們該怎麼做？
17:34
And we can do
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我們可以
17:36
all sorts of things to fix it,
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做很多事情來改善這個狀況，
17:38
but in the final analysis,
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但總括來說，
17:40
the thing we really need to fix
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我們需要改變的
17:42
is ourselves.
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其實是自己。
17:44
It's not about the fish; it's not about the pollution;
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這和魚無關，也和污染無關，
17:47
it's not about the climate change.
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更不是因為氣候變遷，
17:49
It's about us
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而是我們。
17:51
and our greed and our need for growth
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我們貪婪、追求成長，
17:54
and our inability to imagine a world
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我們從沒想過
17:57
that is different from the selfish world
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不要和現在一樣地
17:59
we live in today.
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自私自利。
18:01
So the question is: Will we respond to this or not?
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所以現在的問題是：我們該不該做出改變？
18:04
I would say that the future of life
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我想生物的未來
18:06
and the dignity of human beings
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和人類的尊嚴，
18:08
depends on our doing that.
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都看這個決定了。
18:10
Thank you. (Applause)
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謝謝。
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jeremy Jackson - Marine ecologistA leader in the study of the ecology and evolution of marine organisms, Jeremy Jackson is known for his deep understanding of geological time.
Why you should listen
Jeremy Jackson is the Ritter Professor of Oceanography and Director of the Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Painting pictures of changing marine environments, particularly coral reefs and the Isthmus of Panama, Jackson's research captures the extreme environmental decline of the oceans that has accelerated in the past 200 years.
Jackson's current work focuses on the future of the world’s oceans, given overfishing, habitat destruction and ocean warming, which have fundamentally changed marine ecosystems and led to "the rise of slime." Although Jackson's work describes grim circumstances, even garnering him the nickname Dr. Doom, he believes that successful management and conservation strategies can renew the ocean’s health.
Jeremy Jackson | Speaker | TED.com