TEDGlobal 2010
Tim Jackson: An economic reality check
蒂姆 杰克逊关于经济现状分析的演讲
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随着世界面临经济衰退，气候变化，贫富差距等，蒂姆 杰克逊对对已确立的经济原理进行尖锐的挑战，阐明了我们应该如何阻止经济危机进一步恶化并开始投资我们的未来。
Tim Jackson - Economist
Tim Jackson is a British ecological economist and professor for sustainable development at the University of Surrey. He is the author of "Prosperity without Growth" and director of the Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity. Full bio
Tim Jackson is a British ecological economist and professor for sustainable development at the University of Surrey. He is the author of "Prosperity without Growth" and director of the Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
I want to talk to you today about prosperity,
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我今天想对你们讲一下繁荣，
00:18
about our hopes
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关于我们的希望
00:20
for a shared and lasting prosperity.
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为了共有且永久的繁荣。
00:23
And not just us,
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不仅仅是我们，
00:25
but the two billion people worldwide
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而是全世界二十亿
00:27
who are still chronically undernourished.
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仍然长期地处在饥饿状态的人们。
00:30
And hope actually is at the heart of this.
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希望其实是这一切的关键。
00:33
In fact, the Latin word for hope
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事实上，拉丁语的希望
00:35
is at the heart of the word prosperity.
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位于繁荣这个词的中心。
00:37
"Pro-speras," "speras," hope --
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“Pro-speras”，“speras”，希望--
00:40
in accordance with our hopes and expectations.
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与我们的希望和期待一致。
00:43
The irony is, though,
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讽刺的是，尽管，
00:45
that we have cashed-out prosperity
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我们有现在的繁荣
00:48
almost literally in terms of money and economic growth.
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从金钱和经济成长的方面来看的确如此。
00:51
And we've grown our economies so much
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然而我们的经济增长了如此之多
00:53
that we now stand
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以至于我们现在
00:55
in a real danger
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处在一个
00:57
of undermining hope --
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侵蚀希望的危险处境--
01:00
running down resources, cutting down rainforests,
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耗尽能源，砍伐森林，
01:03
spilling oil into the Gulf of Mexico,
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石油泄漏在墨西哥湾，
01:06
changing the climate --
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改变气候--
01:08
and the only thing that has actually
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过去的二十到三十年间唯一能够
01:10
remotely slowed down the relentless rise
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轻微地减缓源源不断的
01:12
of carbon emissions over the last two to three decades
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碳排放的
01:15
is recession.
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就是经济萧条。
01:17
And recession, of course,
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经济不景气，当然，
01:19
isn't exactly a recipe for hope either,
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也不是对希望的一个精确的处方，
01:21
as we're busy finding out.
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我们忙忙碌碌地所发掘的。
01:23
So we're caught in a kind of trap.
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因此我们陷入了一个陷阱。
01:25
It's a dilemma, a dilemma of growth.
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这是一个困境，一个成长的困境。
01:27
We can't live with it; we can't live without it.
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我们不能与它共存，没有它我们也不能生存。
01:29
Trash the system or crash the planet --
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破坏这个系统或是破坏这个星球。
01:32
it's a tough choice; it isn't much of a choice.
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这是个困难的选择。这算不上是一个选择。
01:35
And our best avenue of escape from this actually
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我们逃避这些最佳的途径实际上
01:38
is a kind of blind faith
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是一种
01:41
in our own cleverness and technology and efficiency
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对我们自己的聪慧，科技和效率
01:44
and doing things more efficiently.
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以及更高效工作的盲目信任。
01:46
Now I haven't got anything against efficiency.
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现在我不反对效率。
01:48
And I think we are a clever species sometimes.
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有些时候我认为我们是聪明的物种。
01:52
But I think we should also just check the numbers,
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但是我认为我们也应该核对一下那些数字，
01:55
take a reality check here.
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做一个现实核查。
01:57
So I want you to imagine a world,
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我希望你想象一个世界，
01:59
in 2050, of around nine billion people,
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在二零五零年，有九十亿的人，
02:02
all aspiring to Western incomes,
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都渴求西方的收入水平，
02:04
Western lifestyles.
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西方的生活方式。
02:07
And I want to ask the question --
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我想问一个问题--
02:09
and we'll give them that two percent hike in income, in salary each year as well,
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我们将每年对他们的收入和工资都提高百分之二。
02:12
because we believe in growth.
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因为我们相信会有（经济）增长。
02:14
And I want to ask the question:
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我想问这个问题：
02:16
how far and how fast would be have to move?
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我们需要行进多远多快？
02:19
How clever would we have to be?
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我们需要有多聪明？
02:21
How much technology would we need in this world
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在这个世界上我们需要多少科学技术
02:23
to deliver our carbon targets?
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来实现我们低碳的目标？
02:25
And here in my chart --
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在我的这个图表中。
02:27
on the left-hand side is where we are now.
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在左手边的是我们现在所处的状态。
02:30
This is the carbon intensity of economic growth
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这是经济增长与之相对应的碳强度
02:32
in the economy at the moment.
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在此时的经济下。
02:34
It's around about 770 grams of carbon.
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这大约是七百七十克的碳。
02:37
In the world I describe to you,
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我用文字向你描述，
02:39
we have to be right over here at the right-hand side
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我们必须得达到右手边的
02:41
at six grams of carbon.
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六克碳的程度。
02:43
It's a 130-fold improvement,
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这是一个一百三十倍的改进，
02:45
and that is 10 times further and faster
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而且这是
02:47
than anything we've ever achieved in industrial history.
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我们在工业历史上至今所实现的十倍之快之深远。
02:50
Maybe we can do it, maybe it's possible -- who knows?
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我们也许可以完成，也许这是可能的--谁知道呢？
02:52
Maybe we can even go further
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我们可能做得更好
02:54
and get an economy that pulls carbon out of the atmosphere,
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形成一种可以将那些碳从大气中吸出来的经济，
02:57
which is what we're going to need to be doing
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这也正是我们需要在
02:59
by the end of the century.
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这个世纪中做的事情。
03:01
But shouldn't we just check first
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但我们难道不应该首先核实
03:04
that the economic system that we have
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我们的经济体制
03:07
is remotely capable of delivering
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的能力是否远远不能达到
03:09
this kind of improvement?
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这种改进？
03:11
So I want to just spend a couple of minutes on system dynamics.
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因此我想要花费几分钟的时间在系统动态学上。
03:14
It's a bit complex, and I apologize for that.
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这有些复杂，为此我表示歉意。
03:16
What I'll try and do, is I'll try and paraphrase it
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我将要试图去做的，是简要解释一下它
03:18
is sort of human terms.
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是种人类语言。
03:20
So it looks a little bit like this.
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这看起来有点像这样。
03:23
Firms produce goods for households -- that's us --
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公司为家庭生产商品--也就是我们--
03:25
and provide us with incomes,
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并且为我们提供收入，
03:27
and that's even better, because we can spend those incomes
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这更好，因为我们可以消费这些收入
03:30
on more goods and services.
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在更多的商品和服务上。
03:32
That's called the circular flow of the economy.
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这叫做经济循环。
03:35
It looks harmless enough.
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它看起来一点都无害。
03:37
I just want to highlight one key feature of this system,
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我只是想强调这个体制中的一个最重要的特征，
03:39
which is the role of investment.
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也就是投资的作用。
03:41
Now investment constitutes
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现在投资构成
03:43
only about a fifth of the national income
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仅仅大约百分之二十的国民收入
03:45
in most modern economies,
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在大部分现代经济中，
03:47
but it plays an absolutely vital role.
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但是它扮演着一个绝对重要的角色。
03:49
And what it does essentially
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它本质上所做的
03:51
is to stimulate further consumption growth.
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是刺激更多的消费增长。
03:54
It does this in a couple of ways --
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它以几种方式来达到此目的--
03:56
chasing productivity,
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追求生产率，
03:58
which drives down prices and encourages us to buy more stuff.
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这将压低价格并鼓励我们买更多的东西。
04:01
But I want to concentrate
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但是我想聚焦于
04:03
on the role of investment
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投资的角色
04:05
in seeking out novelty,
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在寻求创新，
04:07
the production and consumption of novelty.
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新事物的生产和消费。
04:10
Joseph Schumpeter called this
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约瑟夫 顺彼得称这是
04:12
"the process of creative destruction."
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“创造性毁灭的过程。”
04:15
It's a process of the production and reproduction of novelty,
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这是一个生产和在生产新事物的过程，
04:17
continually chasing expanding consumer markets,
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持续地寻求拓展消费者市场，
04:20
consumer goods, new consumer goods.
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消费者商品，新的消费者商品。
04:22
And this, this is where it gets interesting,
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并且，这正是趣味所在，
04:24
because it turns out that human beings
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因为它证明了人类
04:27
have something of an appetite for novelty.
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有着对新奇事物的渴望。
04:30
We love new stuff --
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我们热爱新事物--
04:32
new material stuff for sure --
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毫无疑问地新东西--
04:34
but also new ideas, new adventures,
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但也包括新想法，新的冒险，
04:36
new experiences.
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新的经验。
04:38
But the materiality matters too,
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但物质性也至关重要。
04:40
because in every society
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因为，在每一个社会里
04:43
that anthropologists have looked at,
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人类学者曾研究过的，
04:45
material stuff
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物质性东西
04:47
operates as a kind of language --
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犹如一种语言般的运作，
04:49
a language of goods,
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一种商品语言，
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a symbolic language
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一种象征性的语言
04:53
that we use to tell each other stories --
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我们用它来向彼此讲述故事--
04:55
stories, for example,
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故事，例如，
04:57
about how important we are.
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我们有多重要。
04:59
Status-driven, conspicuous consumption
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身份地位驱使的，炫耀式消费
05:02
thrives from the language
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从这种新事物语言
05:05
of novelty.
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中滋生。
05:07
And here, all of a sudden,
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现在，突然地，
05:09
we have a system
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我们有一个体制
05:11
that is locking economic structure with social logic --
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将经济结构用社会逻辑--
05:14
the economic institutions, and who we are as people, locked together
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经济制度和我们锁在一起
05:17
to drive an engine of growth.
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去追求增长。
05:20
And this engine is not just economic value;
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这个引擎不仅仅是经济价值；
05:22
it is pulling material resources
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它拉动物质资源
05:25
relentlessly through the system,
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持续地通过这个体制，
05:28
driven by our own insatiable appetites,
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被我们无止境的欲望驱使，
05:31
driven in fact by a sense of anxiety.
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事实上被一种渴望所驱使。
05:34
Adam Smith, 200 years ago,
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亚当 斯密，两百年前，
05:36
spoke about our desire
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讲到我们
05:38
for a life without shame.
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活得光彩一生的欲望。
05:40
A life without shame:
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高贵的一生：
05:42
in his day, what that meant was a linen shirt,
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在他的那个时候，这意味着亚麻布的衬衫，
05:45
and today, well, you still need the shirt,
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今天，你仍然需要衬衫，
05:47
but you need the hybrid car,
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但是你需要混合动力汽车，
05:50
the HDTV, two holidays a year in the sun,
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高清电视，一年两次的阳光假期，
05:53
the netbook and iPad, the list goes on --
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上网本和苹果平板电脑，可以列举出很多--
05:56
an almost inexhaustible supply of goods,
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几乎是无穷无尽的商品供给，
05:58
driven by this anxiety.
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被这种渴望驱使。
06:00
And even if we don't want them,
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即使我们不想要它们，
06:02
we need to buy them,
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我们得买它们，
06:04
because, if we don't buy them, the system crashes.
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因为，如果我们不买它们，这个体制会崩塌。
06:06
And to stop it crashing
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为了阻止它崩塌
06:08
over the last two to three decades,
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在过去的二十到三十年中，
06:10
we've expanded the money supply,
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我们扩大了货币供应量，
06:12
expanded credit and debt,
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增加了贷款和负债，
06:14
so that people can keep buying stuff.
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为了使人们能够持续不断地买东西。
06:16
And of course, that expansion was deeply implicated in the crisis.
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当然，那些膨胀与经济危机是有牵连的。
06:19
But this -- I just want to show you some data here.
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但是--我只是想在这里为你展示一些数据。
06:21
This is what it looks like, essentially,
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它看起来是这样，本质上，
06:23
this credit and debt system, just for the U.K.
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这些贷款和负债体制，仅仅是英国。
06:25
This was the last 15 years before the crash,
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这是（经济系统）崩塌前的十五年。
06:28
and you can see there, consumer debt rose dramatically.
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你可以看到在这里，消费债务急剧地上升。
06:31
It was above the GDP for three years in a row
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连续三年超过国内生产总值（注：GDP:Gross Domestic Product)
06:33
just before the crisis.
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就在经济危机之前。
06:35
And in the mean time, personal savings absolutely plummeted.
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同时，个人储蓄暴跌。
06:38
The savings ratio, net savings,
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这些储蓄率，净储蓄，
06:40
were below zero in the middle of 2008,
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在二零零八年中期是负值。
06:42
just before the crash.
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就在经济危机之前。
06:44
This is people expanding debt, drawing down their savings,
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这是人们增加债务，消耗他们的储蓄，
06:47
just to stay in the game.
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仅仅为了持续在这场游戏之中。
06:50
This is a strange, rather perverse, story,
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这是一个奇怪的，更确切地说是有悖常理的，故事，
06:53
just to put it in very simple terms.
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用一个简单的术语来说的话。
06:55
It's a story about us, people,
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这是一个关于我们的故事，人们，
06:59
being persuaded
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被说服
07:01
to spend money we don't have
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去花费我们没有的钱
07:03
on things we don't need
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在不需要的东西上
07:05
to create impressions that won't last
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去营造一种不能持久的景象
07:07
on people we don't care about.
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为了我们并不在乎的人。
07:09
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
07:11
(Applause)
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（掌声）
07:15
But before we consign ourselves to despair,
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但是在我们将自己交付于绝望之前，
07:18
maybe we should just go back and say, "Did we get this right?
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我们也许应该回过头说，“我们做对了吗？
07:20
Is this really how people are?
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人们真的是这样的吗？
07:22
Is this really how economies behave?"
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经济真的是这样运作的吗？”
07:24
And almost straightaway
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几乎是立即的
07:26
we actually run up against a couple of anomalies.
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我们实际上遭遇了许多个异常（现象）。
07:29
The first one is in the crisis itself.
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首先就是经济危机本身。
07:31
In the crisis, in the recession, what do people want to do?
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在经济危机时，经济萧条时，人们想做什么？
07:34
They want to hunker down, they want to look to the future.
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他们想顽固坚持。他们想依靠未来。
07:37
They want to spend less and save more.
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他们想消费较少而储储蓄更多。
07:40
But saving is exactly the wrong thing to do
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但是储蓄恰好是一件错误的事情
07:42
from the system point of view.
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从（经济）体制的角度来看。
07:44
Keynes called this the "paradox of thrift" --
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凯恩斯把这称为“节俭悖论”--
07:46
saving slows down recovery.
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储蓄减慢经济复苏。
07:48
And politicians call on us continually
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政治家们持续地号召我们
07:51
to draw down more debt,
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增加更多的负债，
07:53
to draw down our own savings even further,
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甚至更多地减少我们的储蓄，
07:55
just so that we can get the show back on the road,
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如此一来我们才能够将经济重新引向正轨，
07:57
so we can keep this growth-based economy going.
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我们才可以持续这种以增长为基础的经济。
07:59
It's an anomaly,
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这是一个反常现象，
08:01
it's a place where the system actually is at odds
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在这里（经济）体制
08:03
with who we are as people.
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和我们人类是矛盾的。
08:06
Here's another one -- completely different one:
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这里是另外一个（例子）--完全不同的一个：
08:08
Why is it
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为什么
08:10
that we don't do the blindingly obvious things we should do
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我们不盲目地做我们应该做的那些明显的事情
08:12
to combat climate change,
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去与气候变化作斗争，
08:14
very, very simple things
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非常，非常简单的事情
08:16
like buying energy-efficient appliances,
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像是买节能器具，
08:18
putting in efficient lights, turning the lights off occasionally,
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安装高效能灯，时常地将灯熄灭，
08:20
insulating our homes?
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使我们的房子隔热？
08:22
These things save carbon, they save energy,
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这些事情减少碳，节约能源，
08:24
they save us money.
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节约我们的金钱。
08:27
So is it that, though they make perfect economic sense,
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但是事实是这样的，尽管他们有完美的经济道理，
08:30
we don't do them?
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我们为什么不做呢？
08:32
Well, I had my own personal insight into this
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我对此有自己的见解
08:34
a few years ago.
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几年前。
08:36
It was a Sunday evening, Sunday afternoon,
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那是一个星期天的傍晚，星期天下午，
08:38
and it was just after --
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就在--
08:40
actually, to be honest, too long after --
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实际上，说实话，在--
08:43
we had moved into a new house.
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我们搬进一个新家之后--
08:45
And I had finally got around to doing some draft stripping,
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我最终开始着手做一些挡风（设计），
08:48
installing insulation around the windows and doors
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在窗户和门上安装隔热装置
08:50
to keep out the drafts.
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来减少气流。
08:52
And my, then, five year-old daughter
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我的，那时五岁的女儿
08:55
was helping me in the way that five year-olds do.
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帮我一些五岁的小孩子能帮的忙。
08:58
And we'd been doing this for a while,
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我们持续得做了一会儿，
09:01
when she turned to me very solemnly and said,
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她转向我十分严肃地说，
09:05
"Will this really keep out the giraffes?"
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“这个能真的挡住长颈鹿吗？”
09:08
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
09:10
"Here they are, the giraffes."
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“是它们，那些长颈鹿们。”
09:12
You can hear the five-year-old mind working.
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你能听到一个五岁的孩子的大脑是怎样运作的。
09:14
These ones, interestingly, are 400 miles north of here
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这些，很有趣地，在距离这里四百英里北部
09:17
outside Barrow-in-Furness in Cumbria.
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的巴罗因弗内斯以外的坎布里亚郡。
09:20
Goodness knows what they make of the Lake District weather.
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谁知道湖区（注：Lake District: 英格兰西北部风景地）的气候是怎么形成的呢。
09:23
But actually that childish misrepresentation
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但是实际上那种孩童的误解
09:26
stuck with me,
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使我无法摆脱，
09:28
because it suddenly became clear to me
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因为它使突然变得很清楚
09:31
why we don't do the blindingly obvious things.
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为什么我们不能做这些明显的事情。
09:33
We're too busy keeping out the giraffes --
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我们忙于阻挡这些长颈鹿--
09:35
putting the kids on the bus in the morning,
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早晨将孩子们送到公交车上，
09:37
getting ourselves to work on time,
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使我们自己按时上班，
09:40
surviving email overload
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避免过量的电子邮件
09:42
and shop floor politics,
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还有工作上的勾心斗角，
09:44
foraging for groceries, throwing together meals,
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在食品杂货店寻找食物，匆匆拼凑成一顿饭，
09:47
escaping for a couple of precious hours in the evening
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在晚间的几个宝贵的小时
09:50
into prime-time TV
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来看黄金时段的电视
09:52
or TED online,
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或是TED在线，
09:54
getting from one end of the day to the other,
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一天又一天的晚上，
09:57
keeping out the giraffes.
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将长颈鹿挡在外面。
09:59
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
10:01
What is the objective?
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目的是什么？
10:03
"What is the objective of the consumer?"
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“消费者的目的是什么？”
10:06
Mary Douglas asked in an essay on poverty
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玛丽 道格拉斯在一篇关于贫困的文章中问过
10:09
written 35 years ago.
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写于三十五年前。
10:11
"It is," she said,
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“它是”，她说，
10:14
"to help create the social world
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“去帮助创造社会化世界
10:17
and find a credible place in it."
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并且从中找到一个可靠的地方。”
10:20
That is a deeply humanizing
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那是对我们的生命的一种深层的
10:23
vision of our lives,
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人性化的视野，
10:25
and it's a completely different vision
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并且它是一个完全不同的视野
10:28
than the one that lies at the heart
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与那个在这个经济模式中心的
10:31
of this economic model.
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（视野）相对比。
10:33
So who are we?
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那么我们是谁？
10:35
Who are these people?
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那些人是谁？
10:38
Are we these novelty-seeking, hedonistic,
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我们是那些追求新颖，享乐主义的，
10:40
selfish individuals?
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自私的个体吗？
10:43
Or might we actually occasionally be
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又或者我们事实上偶尔地
10:46
something like the selfless altruist
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是那些
10:49
depicted in Rembrandt's lovely, lovely sketch here?
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在林布兰特素描中所描绘的美好的，美好的无私的利他主义者？
10:52
Well psychology actually says
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心理学家说
10:54
there is a tension --
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这里有一个张力，
10:56
a tension between self-regarding behaviors
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在利己主义行为和
10:59
and other regarding behaviors.
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利他主义行为之间的一个张力。
11:01
And these tensions have deep evolutionary roots,
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这些张力维持着进化的根源。
11:04
so selfish behavior
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因此自私的行为
11:06
is adaptive in certain circumstances --
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是适应特定的环境的--
11:08
fight or flight.
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斗争还是逃跑。
11:10
But other regarding behaviors
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但是利他行为
11:12
are essential to our evolution
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是我们进化的本质
11:14
as social beings.
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作为社会人。
11:16
And perhaps even more interesting from our point of view,
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从我们的观点来看也许更有趣，
11:18
another tension between novelty-seeking behaviors
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另一种在探寻新事物的行为和
11:21
and tradition or conservation.
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传统或保守之间的张力。
11:25
Novelty is adaptive when things are changing
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新事物是与事物发展相适应的
11:27
and you need to adapt yourself.
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你需要使自己适应。
11:29
Tradition is essential to lay down the stability
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传统是制定稳定性
11:32
to raise families and form cohesive social groups.
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为了养家和组成有凝聚力的社会群体。
11:35
So here, all of a sudden,
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因此，突然地，
11:37
we're looking at a map of the human heart.
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我们在注视一个人类心脏的地图。
11:40
And it reveals to us, suddenly,
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它突然地揭露出，
11:43
the crux of the matter.
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这件事情的症结所在。
11:45
What we've done is we've created economies.
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我们所做的是，我们创造了经济。
11:47
We've created systems,
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我们创造了体制，
11:49
which systematically privilege, encourage,
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（这个体制）系统地赋予我们特权，鼓励，
11:52
one narrow quadrant
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人们灵魂的一个
11:54
of the human soul
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狭窄的象限
11:56
and left the others unregarded.
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远离他人不去关注。
11:59
And in the same token, the solution becomes clear,
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同样地，答案变得清晰，
12:02
because this isn't, therefore,
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因为这不是，因此，
12:04
about changing human nature.
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关于改变人性。
12:06
It isn't, in fact, about curtailing possibilities.
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它不是，事实上，关于删减可能性。
12:09
It is about opening up.
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它是关于开放。
12:11
It is about allowing ourselves the freedom
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它是关于允许我们自己自由
12:13
to become fully human,
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称为完整的人类，
12:15
recognizing the depth and the breadth
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承认债务和
12:17
of the human psyche
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人类灵魂的宽度
12:19
and building institutions
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和建造机构
12:21
to protect Rembrandt's fragile altruist within.
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在其中来保护林布兰特的脆弱的利他主义。
12:26
What does all this mean for economics?
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这一切对经济意味着什么呢？
12:29
What would economies look like
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经济将变成什么样子
12:31
if we took that vision of human nature
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如果我们用人性的眼光来看待它们
12:33
at their heart
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在它们的内心
12:35
and stretched them
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延伸它们
12:37
along these orthogonal dimensions
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用这些
12:39
of the human psyche?
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人类心灵的角度？
12:41
Well, it might look a little bit
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它看起来大概像
12:43
like the 4,000 community-interest companies
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四千个
12:45
that have sprung up in the U.K. over the last five years
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过去的五年里在英国出现的社区利益公司
12:48
and a similar rise in B corporations in the United States,
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和在美国B公司的崛起有些相似，
12:51
enterprises
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企业们
12:53
that have ecological and social goals
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那些有着生态和社会目标的
12:55
written into their constitution
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写进他们的章程
12:57
at their heart --
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在他们的心中，
12:59
companies, in fact, like this one, Ecosia.
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公司，实际上，像这一个，Ecosia.
13:02
And I just want to, very quickly, show you this.
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我很快地向你演示一下这个。
13:04
Ecosia is an Internet search engine.
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Ecosia是一个网络搜索引擎。
13:06
Internet search engines work
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网络搜索引擎运作
13:08
by drawing revenues from sponsored links
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通过赞助商链接来获得收益
13:10
that appear when you do a search.
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这些当你搜索的时候出现。
13:12
And Ecosia works in pretty much the same way.
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Ecosia也以同样的方式运营。
13:16
So we can do that here --
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所以在这儿我们可以那样做。
13:18
we can just put in a little search term.
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我们可以输入一个搜索词。
13:20
There you go, Oxford, that's where we are. See what comes up.
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好的，牛津，那就是我们要的。看看会出现什么。
13:23
The difference with Ecosia though
330
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Ecosia的不同之处
13:25
is that, in Ecosia's case,
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就在于，Ecosia的情况，
13:27
it draws the revenues in the same way,
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就是它也是以同样的方式获得收益，
13:30
but it allocates
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但是它将
13:32
80 percent of those revenues
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百分之八十的收入分配
13:35
to a rainforest protection project in the Amazon.
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给在亚马逊的一个雨林保护项目。
13:37
And we're going to do it.
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我们来做这个。
13:39
We're just going to click on Naturejobs.uk.
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我们仅仅点击Naturejobs.uk网站。
13:41
In case anyone out there is looking for a job in a recession,
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假使有一个人在这个经济萧条期找个工作，
13:43
that's the page to go to.
339
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这是一个可以去看的网页。
13:45
And what happened then was
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接下来会发生的就是
13:47
the sponsor gave revenues to Ecosia,
341
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3000
赞助商给Ecosia收益，
13:50
and Ecosia is giving 80 percent of those revenues
342
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然后Ecosia将这些收入的百分之八十
13:52
to a rainforest protection project.
343
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给与一个雨林保护项目。
13:54
It's taking profits from one place
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它从一个地方获得利润
13:56
and allocating them
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然后将它们分配
13:58
into the protection of ecological resources.
346
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给生态资源保护。
14:00
It's a different kind of enterprise
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这是一个不同的企业
14:02
for a new economy.
348
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在一个新经济下。
14:04
It's a form, if you like,
349
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它是一种形式，如果你喜欢的话，
14:06
of ecological altruism --
350
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生态型的利他主义--
14:08
perhaps something along those lines. Maybe it's that.
351
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也许沿着这条线的一些事。也许就是。
14:11
Whatever it is,
352
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不论它是什么，
14:13
whatever this new economy is,
353
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3000
无论新经济是什么，
14:16
what we need the economy to do, in fact,
354
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我们需要经济去做，实际上，
14:19
is to put investment
355
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2000
是去将投资放
14:21
back into the heart of the model,
356
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2000
回在这个模式的中心，
14:23
to re-conceive investment.
357
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2000
去再-构想投资。
14:25
Only now, investment
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只是现在，投资
14:27
isn't going to be
359
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将不再
14:29
about the relentless and mindless
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2000
持续和盲目地
14:31
pursuit of consumption growth.
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2000
追求消费增长。
14:33
Investment has to be a different beast.
362
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3000
投资必须得成为一个不同的猛兽。
14:36
Investment has to be,
363
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投资要成为，
14:38
in the new economy,
364
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在新经济下，
14:40
protecting and nurturing
365
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2000
保护和培育
14:42
the ecological assets on which our future depends.
366
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3000
决定我们未来的生态资产。
14:45
It has to be about transition.
367
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它得是一个过渡。
14:47
It has to be investing in low-carbon technologies
368
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2000
它要投资到低碳科技和
14:49
and infrastructures.
369
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2000
（低碳）基础设施上。
14:51
We have to invest, in fact,
370
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3000
我们需要投资在，事实上，
14:54
in the idea of a meaningful prosperity,
371
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3000
一个有意义的繁荣的理念上，
14:57
providing capabilities
372
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3000
提供能力
15:00
for people to flourish.
373
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3000
为人们繁荣昌盛。
15:03
And of course, this task has material dimensions.
374
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2000
当然，这个任务有物质层面。
15:05
It would be nonsense to talk about people flourishing
375
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3000
这将是无意义的如果谈论人们的繁荣富强
15:08
if they didn't have food, clothing and shelter.
376
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2000
而他们却没有食物，衣服和居所。
15:10
But it's also clear that prosperity goes beyond this.
377
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3000
但是繁荣富强远超过于此也是很清楚的。
15:13
It has social and psychological aims --
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3000
它有社会和心理的目标--
15:16
family, friendship,
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2000
家庭，友情，
15:18
commitments, society,
380
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2000
义务，社会，
15:20
participating in the life of that society.
381
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3000
参与社会生活。
15:23
And this too
382
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2000
这也
15:25
requires investment,
383
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3000
要求投资，
15:28
investment -- for example, in places --
384
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2000
投资，例如，在那些，
15:30
places where we can connect,
385
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2000
我们能够联系的地方，
15:32
places where we can participate,
386
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2000
我们能够参与的地方，
15:34
shared spaces,
387
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2000
共同的空间，
15:36
concert halls, gardens,
388
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2000
音乐厅，花园，
15:38
public parks,
389
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2000
公园，
15:40
libraries, museums, quiet centers,
390
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2000
图书馆，博物馆，安静的场所（娱乐中心），
15:42
places of joy and celebration,
391
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那些快活和庆典的地方，
15:45
places of tranquility and contemplation,
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那些安静和让人思考的地方，
15:48
sites for the "cultivation
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为“培育
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of a common citizenship,"
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一种普遍的公民意识”的场所
15:53
in Michael Sandel's lovely phrase.
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是迈克 桑德尔的美好的句子。
15:56
An investment -- investment, after all, is just such a basic economic concept --
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一个投资--投资，最终，只是一个基本的经济概念--
16:00
is nothing more nor less
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恰好是
16:02
than a relationship
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一种关系
16:04
between the present and the future,
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现在和未来的关系，
16:06
a shared present and a common future.
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一个共有的现在和一个共同的未来。
16:09
And we need that relationship to reflect,
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我们则需要那个关系来反射，
16:11
to reclaim hope.
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来重新获得希望。
16:15
So let me come back, with this sense of hope,
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让我带着这种希望回过头来，
16:18
to the two billion people
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到这二十亿人们
16:20
still trying to live each day
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他们仍然每天试图
16:22
on less than the price of a skinny latte
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以不到隔壁餐厅一杯低脂拿铁价格的
16:25
from the cafe next door.
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钱来生存。
16:27
What can we offer those people?
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我们可以向这些人提供什么？
16:29
It's clear that we have a responsibility
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很明显我们有一个责任
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to help lift them out of poverty.
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来帮助他们脱贫。
16:33
It's clear that we have a responsibility
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很明显我们有一个责任
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to make room for growth
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来创造增长的空间
16:37
where growth really matters in those poorest nations.
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在这些最贫困的最需要增长的国家。
16:40
And it's also clear that we will never achieve that
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这也很明显，我们将永远不能达到（这个目标）
16:43
unless we're capable of redefining
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除非我们能够重新定义
16:46
a meaningful sense of prosperity in the richer nations,
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在这些较富裕的国家繁荣的真正意义。
16:49
a prosperity that is more meaningful
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一个更有意义的繁荣
16:51
and less materialistic
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和与以发展为基础的模式
16:53
than the growth-based model.
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相比更少的物质化。
16:55
So this is not just
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因此这不仅仅是
16:57
a Western post-materialist fantasy.
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一个西方的后唯物主义的幻想。
17:00
In fact, an African philosopher wrote to me,
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事实上，一个非洲的哲学家写信给我，
17:03
when "Prosperity Without Growth" was published,
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在“缺乏增长的繁荣”
17:05
pointing out the similarities
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指出这种
17:07
between this view of prosperity
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关于繁荣的观点
17:09
and the traditional African concept of ubuntu.
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与传统非洲的乌班图（注：非洲传统的一种价值观，类似华人社会的“仁爱”思想）的相似之处。
17:12
Ubuntu says, "I am
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乌班图说，“我的存在
17:15
because we are."
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是因为大家的存在。”
17:17
Prosperity is a shared endeavor.
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繁荣就是一个共同的努力。
17:20
Its roots are long and deep --
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它的根源长且深。
17:22
its foundations, I've tried to show,
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它的基础，我曾试图展示，
17:24
exist already, inside each of us.
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早已存在于我们每个人心中。
17:27
So this is not about
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所以这不是关于
17:29
standing in the way of development.
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代替发展。
17:31
It's not about
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它不是
17:33
overthrowing capitalism.
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推翻资本主义。
17:35
It's not about
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它不是
17:37
trying to change human nature.
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试图改变人性。
17:39
What we're doing here
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我们在这里要做的
17:41
is we're taking a few simple steps
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是采取几个简单的步骤
17:43
towards an economics fit for purpose.
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以适当的经济为目的。
17:46
And at the heart of that economics,
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在那个经济的中心，
17:49
we're placing a more credible,
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我们用一个更可靠的，
17:51
more robust,
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更健全的，
17:53
and more realistic vision
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更现实的眼光
17:56
of what it means to be human.
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来看待它（经济）对人类意味着什么。
17:59
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢。
18:01
(Applause)
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（掌声）
18:10
Chris Anderson: While they're taking the podium away, just a quick question.
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克里斯 安德森：在把讲台移走时，很快地问个问题。
18:13
First of all, economists aren't supposed to be inspiring,
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首先，经济学家本不应该令人感到振奋的，
18:16
so you may need to work on the tone a little.
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所以你得要在这个基调上多下点功夫。
18:18
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
18:20
Can you picture the politicians ever buying into this?
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你可以构想到每一个政治家都相信这些吗？
18:22
I mean, can you picture
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我的意思是，你可以构想一下
18:24
a politician standing up in Britain and saying,
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一个政治家在英国说，
18:27
"GDP fell two percent this year. Good news!
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“国内生产总值今年降了百分之二。好消息！
18:30
We're actually all happier, and a country's more beautiful,
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我们实际上更幸福，这个国家变得更美好，
18:32
and our lives are better."
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我们的生活变得更好。”
18:34
Tim Jackson: Well that's clearly not what you're doing.
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蒂姆 杰克逊：那很明显得不是你现在做的。
18:36
You're not making news out of things falling down.
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你不会以下降来做新闻。
18:38
You're making news out of the things that tell you that we're flourishing.
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你会以那些告诉你我们是繁荣富强的东西来做新闻。
18:41
Can I picture politicians doing it?
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我能否构想政治家做这个？
18:43
Actually, I already am seeing a little bit of it.
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实际上，我已经看到了一些。
18:45
When we first started this kind of work,
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当我们第一次开始做这种事情，
18:48
politicians would stand up, treasury spokesmen would stand up,
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政治家们应该站出来，财政部发言人应该站出来，
18:50
and accuse us of wanting to go back and live in caves.
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指责我们想要回归到从前，住在山洞。
18:53
And actually in the period
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事实上在那段时间里
18:55
through which we've been working over the last 18 years --
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在过去的十八年里，我们一直在做这件事情--
18:57
partly because of the financial crisis
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一部分是因为经济危机
18:59
and a little bit of humility in the profession of economics --
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和一些专业经济学（家）的谦逊--
19:02
actually people are engaging in this issue
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实际上人们探讨此问题
19:05
in all sorts of countries around the world.
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在这世界上的任何一个国家（都不例外）。
19:07
CA: But is it mainly politicians who are going to have to get their act together,
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克里斯 安德森：但是这主要是由政治家们一起行动，
19:10
or is it going to be more just civil society and companies?
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或者仅是一些民间社会和公司吧？
19:13
TJ: It has to be companies. It has to be civil society.
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蒂姆 杰克逊：必须得是公司。必须得是公民社会。
19:16
But it has to have political leadership.
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但是它需要有政治领导。
19:19
This is a kind of agenda,
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这是一种议程，
19:21
which actually politicians themselves
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事实上政治家他们自己
19:23
are kind of caught in that dilemma,
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被困在那个难题中，
19:25
because they're hooked on the growth model themselves.
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因为他们自己被那个增长模式勾住了。
19:27
But actually opening up the space
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但是实际上敞开来
19:29
to think about different ways of governing,
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想一想不同的管理的方式，
19:31
different kinds of politics,
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不同的政治体制，
19:33
and creating the space
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创造空间
19:35
for civil society and businesses to operate differently --
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为公民社会和商业不一样地运作--
19:37
absolutely vital.
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是绝对的关键。
19:39
CA: And if someone could convince you
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克里斯 安德森：如果某人想要说服你
19:41
that we actually can make the -- what was it? --
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其实我们可以做到--那个是什么来着？--
19:43
the 130-fold improvement in efficiency,
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一百三十倍的效能改进，
19:45
of reduction of carbon footprint,
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来降低碳，
19:47
would you then actually like that picture of economic growth
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那你是否会喜欢将经济增长构想
19:50
into more knowledge-based goods?
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于更多的以知识为基础的商品上呢？
19:52
TJ: I would still want to know that you could do that
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蒂姆 杰克逊：我始终想知道你可以
19:54
and get below zero by the end of the century,
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在世纪末降到负值，
19:56
in terms of taking carbon out of the atmosphere,
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就是将碳从大气中抽出来，
19:58
and solve the problem of biodiversity
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并且解决生态多样性的问题
20:00
and reduce the impact on land use
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减少对土地利用的影响
20:02
and do something about the erosion of topsoils and the quality of water.
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做一些事情（来改善）表层土侵蚀和水质。
20:05
If you can convince me we can do all that,
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如果你能说服我我们能做到这些，
20:07
then, yes, I would take the two percent.
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那么，是的，我愿意选择那百分之二（国内生产总值）。
20:11
CA: Tim, thank you for a very important talk. Thank you.
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克里斯 安德森：蒂姆，谢谢你的重要演讲。谢谢。
20:14
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tim Jackson - EconomistTim Jackson is a British ecological economist and professor for sustainable development at the University of Surrey. He is the author of "Prosperity without Growth" and director of the Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity.
Why you should listen
Tim Jackson has been at the forefront of international debates about sustainable development for 30 years and has worked closely with the UK Government, the United Nations Environment Programme and numerous private companies and NGOs to bring social science research into sustainability. During five years at the Stockholm Environment Institute in the early 1990s, he pioneered the concept of preventative environmental management outlined in his 1996 book Material Concerns: Pollution, Profit and Quality of Life. He worked for over a decade pioneering alternative measures of economic progress, and he has written extensively about the meaning function of consumerism in modern society. For seven years, he served as economics commissioner on the UK government's Sustainable Development Commission and led its Redefining Prosperity programme.
He is the director of the Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity, a multi-disciplinary, international research consortium which aims to understand the economic, social and political dimensions of sustainable prosperity. In 2016 he received the Hillary Laureate for exceptional mid-career Leadership.
In addition to his scientific work, Jackson is an award-winning professional playwright with numerous BBC radio-writing credits to his name.
Tim Jackson | Speaker | TED.com