TEDGlobal 2013
Charles Robertson: Africa's next boom
查爾斯·羅伯森: 非洲下個階段的繁榮
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過去十年，非洲大陸穩定成長。但是經濟學家查爾斯·羅伯森（Charles Robertson ）有個大膽的論點：非洲將快速繁榮。他談到幾個指標：從提升教育程度到擴增的全球投資（且投資者不限於中國），並據此預測，十億人口的非洲將急速成長，而且比你想的還要快。
Charles Robertson - Emerging-markets economist
In "The Fastest Billion," Charles Robertson re-examines the narrative of economic growth in African nations. Full bio
In "The Fastest Billion," Charles Robertson re-examines the narrative of economic growth in African nations. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Africa is booming.
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非洲正欣欣向榮
00:14
Per capita incomes since the year 2000
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人均所得自2000年以來
00:16
have doubled,
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已倍增
00:18
and this boom is impacting on everyone.
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這樣的繁榮影響所有人民
00:21
Life expectancy has increased by one year
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過去十年以來，平均壽命
00:24
every three years for the last decade.
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每三年增加一歲
00:27
That means if an African child is born today,
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就是說今天誕生的非洲嬰兒
00:30
rather than three days ago,
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比三天前出生的
00:32
they will get an extra day of life
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會多增加一天
00:34
at the end of their lifespan.
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的壽命預期
00:36
It's that quick.
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變化就是那麼快
00:38
And HIV infection rates are down 27 percent:
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愛滋病毒的感染率下降了27%
00:42
600,000 less people a year are getting HIV
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每年感染的人數減少60萬
00:46
in sub-Saharan Africa.
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這是漠南非洲的數據
00:49
The battle against malaria is being won,
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對抗瘧疾也漸入佳境
00:52
with deaths from malaria down 27 percent,
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死亡率降低27%
00:55
according to the latest World Bank data.
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這是世界銀行的數據
00:56
And malaria nets actually are playing a role in that.
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抗瘧疾蚊帳其實是功臣之一
00:59
This shouldn't surprise us,
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非洲的進步不足為奇
01:02
because actually, everybody grows.
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因為事實上成長屢見不鮮
01:04
If you go back to Imperial Rome
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回顧羅馬帝國時期
01:06
in the Year 1 A.D.,
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從西元一年開始
01:09
there was admittedly about 1,800 years
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一般公認大約有一千八百年
01:11
where there wasn't an awful lot of growth.
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不見巨幅的成長
01:13
But then the people that the Romans
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然後我的祖先蘇格蘭人
01:15
would have called Scottish barbarians, my ancestors,
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那個會被羅馬人視為野蠻的族群
01:19
were actually part of the Industrial Revolution,
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事實上卻參與了工業革命
01:21
and in the 19th century, growth began to accelerate,
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19世紀，成長開始加速
01:24
and you saw that get quicker and quicker,
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速度節節上升
01:27
and it's been impacting everyone.
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並且影響無遠弗屆
01:30
It doesn't matter if this is the jungles of Singapore
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不論是雨林區的新加坡
01:32
or the tundra of northern Finland.
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還是凍原區的北國芬蘭
01:34
Everybody gets involved. It's just a matter of when
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都參與其中，這只是遲早的問題
01:37
the inevitable happens.
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是必然的結果
01:40
Among the reasons I think it's happening right now
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非洲現在成功的原因之一
01:42
is the quality of the leadership across Africa.
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我認為是非洲領袖的才能
01:46
I think most of us would agree that in the 1990s,
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我相信多數人會同意，1990年代
01:49
the greatest politician in the world was African,
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全球最棒的政治家在非洲
01:53
but I'm meeting brilliant people
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但是我遇到的俊彥
01:55
across the continent the entire time,
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非洲一直都不缺
01:57
and they're doing the reforms
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他們進行改革
01:59
which have transformed the economic situation
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扭轉了經濟情勢
02:01
for their countries.
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改變了自己的國家
02:03
And the West is engaging with that.
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西方國家也有參與
02:05
The West has given debt forgiveness programs
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提出債務減免計畫
02:07
which have halved sub-Saharan debt
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漠南非洲的負債因而減半
02:10
from about 70 percent of GDP down to about 40.
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從GDP的七成降至大約四成
02:14
At the same time, our debt level's gone up to 120
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同時西方的負債升至GDP的120%
02:16
and we're all feeling slightly miserable
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我們的心情
02:18
as a result.
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都因此略為低落
02:20
Politics gets weaker when debt is high.
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負債高，會削弱政治的力道
02:23
When public sector debt is low,
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當公債的負擔低
02:25
governments don't have to choose
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政府就毋須選擇
02:26
between investing in education and health
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投資於教育和健康
02:29
and paying interest on that debt you owe.
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還是繳付欠款的利息
02:31
And it's not just the public sector which is looking so good.
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不只是公共部門看好
02:34
The private sector as well.
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私營企業也不遜色
02:36
Again, in the West, we have private sector debt
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西方的私營企業負債
02:39
of 200 percent of GDP in Spain,
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是GDP的兩倍，這是西班牙
02:42
the U.K., and the U.S.
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英國、美國的數字
02:44
That's an awful lot of debt.
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負債相當高
02:46
Africa, many African countries,
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許多非洲國家的負債
02:49
are sitting at 10 to 30 percent of GDP.
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則是GDP的一成至三成
02:52
If there's any continent that can do what China has done --
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如果有個洲能做到中國已做到的——
02:56
China's at about 130 percent of GDP on that chart --
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中國的負債是GDP的130%——
02:59
if anyone can do what China has done
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如果有區域能達到中國
03:01
in the last 30 years,
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過去30年來的成績
03:03
it'll be Africa in the next 30.
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應該是非洲未來的30年
03:06
So they've got great government finances, great private sector debt.
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既然財政、企業負債狀況都極佳
03:09
Does anyone recognize this? In fact, they do.
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有人慧眼識英雄嗎？確實有
03:11
Foreign direct investment
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外商直接投資
03:13
has poured into Africa in the last 15 years.
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過去15年來已大量湧入
03:17
Back in the '70s,
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回顧1970年代
03:19
no one touched the continent with a barge pole.
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人人避非洲唯恐不及
03:22
And this investment is actually Western-led.
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現在的投資其實是西方主導
03:24
We hear a lot about China,
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中國時常上新聞
03:26
and they do lend a lot of money,
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也確實提供非洲大量的貸款
03:28
but 60 percent of the FDI in the last couple of years
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但是過去幾年，外商直接投資有六成
03:31
has come from Europe, America, Australia, Canada.
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來自歐洲、美國、澳洲、加拿大
03:34
Ten percent's come from India.
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還有一成來自印度
03:36
And they're investing in energy.
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他們正在投資能源
03:39
Africa produces 10 million barrels a day of oil now.
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非洲現在日產一千萬桶石油
03:42
It's the same as Saudi Arabia or Russia.
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不下於沙烏地阿拉伯或俄羅斯
03:45
And they're investing in telecoms,
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他們也在投資電信業
03:47
shopping malls.
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大型購物中心
03:49
And this very encouraging story, I think,
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我認為這個振奮人心的故事
03:53
is partly demographic-led.
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部分是由於人口因素
03:54
And it's not just about African demographics.
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而且不僅僅是非洲的人口
03:58
I'm showing you the number of 15- to 24-year-olds
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圖上顯示的是15至24歲人口
04:01
in various parts of the world,
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在世界各區域的分佈統計
04:03
and the blue line is the one I want you to focus on for a second.
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請注意藍色的線
04:06
Ten years ago, say you're Foxconn
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十年前，如果你是富士康
04:09
setting up an iPhone factory, by chance.
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假定要設立iPhone工廠
04:12
You might choose China,
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中國可能會入選
04:13
which is the bulk of that East Asian blue line,
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中國佔東亞藍線人口的大宗
04:15
where there's 200 million young people,
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有兩億的年輕人
04:17
and every year until 2010 that's getting bigger.
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而且在2010年以前，人口年年上升
04:22
Which means you're going to have new guys
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意味著新的年輕人
04:24
knocking on the door saying, "Give us a job,"
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會找上門來乞求工作
04:27
and, "I don't need a big pay rise, just please give me a job."
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會說「加薪不重要，給我工作就好」
04:30
Now, that's completely changed now.
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現在情況則完全不同
04:33
This decade, we're going to see a 20- to 30-percent
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2010年以後的十年
04:36
fall in the number of 15- to 24-year-olds in China.
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中國15至24歲人口將減少兩到三成
04:40
So where do you set up your new factory?
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所以你該在哪裡設新工廠？
04:43
You look at South Asia, and people are.
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大家開始注視南亞
04:45
They're looking at Pakistan and Bangladesh,
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轉向巴基斯坦和孟加拉
04:47
and they're also looking at Africa.
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也在轉向非洲
04:49
And they're looking at Africa
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他們注視非洲
04:51
because that yellow line is showing you
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因為圖上的黃線顯示
04:54
that the number of young Africans
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非洲的青年人口
04:55
is going to continue to get bigger
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將持續增長
04:57
decade after decade after decade out to 2050.
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年復一年直到2050年
05:02
Now, there's a problem with lots of young people
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不過大量年輕人進入任何市場
05:05
coming into any market,
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都會產生問題
05:07
particularly when they're young men.
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尤其是年輕男性
05:09
A bit dangerous, sometimes.
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有時候會有點危險
05:11
I think one of the crucial factors
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我認為要素之一
05:13
is how educated is that demographic?
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是年輕人的教育程度
05:16
If you look at the red line here,
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請觀察紅線
05:18
what you're going to see is that in 1975,
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可以看到1975年
05:20
just nine percent of kids
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青少年只有9%
05:22
were in secondary school education
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接受中學教育
05:24
in sub-Saharan Africa.
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這是漠南非洲的數據
05:27
Would you set up a factory
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如果想設立工廠
05:29
in sub-Sahara in the mid-1970s?
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1970年代中期，會選漠南吗？
05:31
Nobody else did.
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沒有人這麼做
05:32
They chose instead Turkey and Mexico
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他們選的是土耳其和墨西哥
05:35
to set up the textiles factories,
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在那裡設立紡織廠
05:37
because their education levels
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因為中等學歷的青年
05:39
were 25 to 30 percent.
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佔人口的25%到30%
05:42
Today, sub-Sahara is at the levels
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如今漠南人口的教育程度
05:45
that Turkey and Mexico were at in 1975.
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已達土耳其和墨西哥1975年的水準
05:49
They will get the textiles jobs
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漠南非洲會迎來紡織工作
05:52
that will take people out of rural poverty
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鄉下人會因而脫貧
05:55
and put them on the road to industrialization and wealth.
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並且邁向工業化和富裕之路
05:59
So what's Africa looking like today?
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所以非洲現況如何？
06:02
This is how I look at Africa.
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這是我的觀點
06:04
It's a bit odd, because I'm an economist.
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看起來有點怪，因為我是經濟學家
06:06
Each little box is about a billion dollars,
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每個小方格代表大約十億美元
06:08
and you see that I pay an awful lot of attention
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可以看得出來，我極為看重
06:10
to Nigeria sitting there in the middle.
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居中的奈及利亞
06:12
South Africa is playing a role.
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南非現在有一定分量
06:14
But when I'm thinking about the future,
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但是放眼未來
06:16
I'm actually most interested
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其實我最感興趣的是
06:19
in Central, Western and Southern Africa.
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非洲中部、西部、和南部
06:21
If I look at Africa by population,
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如果從人口的角度
06:24
East Africa stands out
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東非鶴立雞群
06:25
as so much potential.
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非常有潛力
06:27
And I'm showing you something else with these maps.
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這張圖還顯示了其他資訊
06:30
I'm showing you democracy versus autocracy.
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顯示出民主和專制
06:33
Fragile democracies is the beige color.
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米黃色代表脆弱的民主
06:36
Strong democracies are the orange color.
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橘色代表穩定的民主
06:39
And what you'll see here is that most Africans
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看得出來，大多數非洲人
06:42
are now living in democracies.
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生活在民主社會
06:46
Why does that matter?
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這有什麼重要？
06:48
Because what people want
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因為民之所欲
06:50
is what politicians try,
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政客必從之
06:52
they don't always succeed, but they try and deliver.
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他們未必成功，但是會嘗試、會履行
06:55
And what you've got is a reinforcing positive circle going on.
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結果會形成良性循環
06:58
In Ghana in the elections, in December 2012,
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2012年12月在迦納的選舉
07:01
the battle between the two candidates
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兩位候選人對決
07:03
was over education.
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議題是教育
07:06
One guy offered free secondary school education
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一位候選人承諾中學免費
07:08
to all, not just 30 percent.
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全民免費，不只是適齡人口的三成
07:11
The other guy had to say,
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對手只得表示
07:12
I'm going to build 50 new schools.
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將會興建50所新學校
07:14
He won by a margin.
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他後來險勝
07:17
So democracy is encouraging governments
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所以民主制度鼓勵政府
07:20
to invest in education.
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投資於教育
07:22
Education is helping growth and investment,
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教育有助於成長和投資
07:24
and that's giving budget revenues,
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從而提高稅收
07:25
which is giving governments more money,
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政府因此有更多經費
07:27
which is helping growth through education.
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這就是借助教育促進成長
07:30
It's a positive, virtuous circle.
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這就是良性循環
07:33
But I get asked this question,
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但是有人會問一個問題
07:35
and this particular question makes me quite sad:
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這個問題讓我非常難過
07:38
It's, "But what about corruption?
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他們問「腐敗怎麼辦？
07:41
How can you invest in Africa when there's corruption?"
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非洲腐敗，我們怎麼投資？」
07:45
And what makes me sad about it
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讓我難過的
07:47
is that this graph here is showing you
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是這個圖所顯示的
07:49
that the biggest correlation with corruption is wealth.
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腐敗最大的相關因素是富裕
07:53
When you're poor, corruption is not your biggest priority.
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貧窮的地方，不會急於解決腐敗
07:57
And the countries on the right hand side,
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右邊的國家
07:59
you'll see the per capita GDP,
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請注意其人均GDP
08:01
basically every country
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幾乎每個國家
08:03
with a per capita GDP of, say, less than 5,000 dollars,
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如果人均GDP低於五千美元
08:06
has got a corruption score
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其腐敗分數
08:09
of roughly, what's that, about three?
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大概是，是三吧？
08:12
Three out of 10. That's not good.
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十分只得三分。成績不佳
08:14
Every poor country is corrupt.
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貧窮國家都是腐敗的
08:16
Every rich country is relatively uncorrupt.
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富裕國家相對比較不腐敗
08:20
How do you get from poverty and corruption
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怎樣才能從貧窮和腐敗
08:24
to wealth and less corruption?
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變成富裕和較不腐敗？
08:27
You see the middle class grow.
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擴大中產階級是答案
08:29
And the way to do that is to invest,
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擴大之道則是投資
08:32
not to say I'm not investing in that continent
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不要拒絕投資非洲
08:36
because there's too much corruption.
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只是因為腐敗猖獗
08:38
Now, I don't want to be an apologist for corruption.
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我倒不是要替腐敗辯護
08:41
I've been arrested because I refused to pay a bribe --
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我曾因為拒絕行賄而被捕
08:44
not in Africa, actually.
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那次其實不是在非洲
08:46
But what I'm saying here is that
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但是我要講的是
08:47
we can make a difference
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我們可以發揮影響力
08:49
and we can do that by investing.
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可以用投資達到目的
08:52
Now I'm going to let you in on a little not-so-secret.
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我要透露一個不算秘密的小秘密
08:56
Economists aren't great at forecasting.
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經濟學家的預測不是很準
08:58
Because the question really is, what happens next?
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因為牽涉到預知未來
09:01
And if you go back to the year 2000,
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如果回顧2000年
09:03
what you'll find is The Economist
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當年的《經濟學人》雜誌
09:05
had a very famous cover, "The Hopeless Continent,"
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有個著名的封面「無望之洲」
09:08
and what they'd done is they'd looked at growth
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他們檢視了
09:10
in Africa over the previous 10 years -- two percent --
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非洲前十年的成長紀錄：2%
09:14
and they said,
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他們自問
09:16
what's going to happen in the next 10 years?
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非洲下個十年的展望如何？
09:19
They assumed two percent,
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他們假設還是2%
09:21
and that made it a pretty hopeless story,
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前途因此看來無望
09:23
because population growth was two and a half.
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因為人口的增長是2.5%
09:26
People got poorer in Africa in the 1990s.
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1990年代非洲人變得更窮
09:29
Now 2012, The Economist has a new cover,
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到了2012年，《經濟學人》有了新封面
09:33
and what does that new cover show?
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什麼樣的新封面？
09:34
That new cover shows, well, Africa rising,
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新封面顯示了非洲興起
09:37
because the growth over the last 10 years
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因為過去十年的成長率
09:39
has been about five and a half percent.
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大約是5.5%
09:42
I would like to see if you can all now become economists,
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看看你們現在能否變成經濟學家
09:45
because if growth for the last 10 years
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如果過去十年的成長率
09:48
has been five and a half percent,
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是5.5%
09:50
what do you think the IMF is forecasting
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你們猜國際貨幣基金組織預測
09:52
for the next five years of growth in Africa?
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非洲下個五年的成長率為何？
09:55
Very good. I think you're secretly saying
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很好。我想你們在默想
09:57
to your head, probably five and a half percent.
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大概也是5.5%
10:00
You're all economists, and I think,
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你們都成了經濟學家，而我認為
10:02
like most economists, wrong.
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像多數經濟學家一樣，你們錯了
10:04
No offense.
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請別介意
10:06
What I like to do is try and find the countries
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我的目的是要找出一些國家
10:09
that are doing exactly what Africa has already done,
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他們也走過非洲走過的路
10:13
and it means that jump from 1,800 years of nothing
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就是歷經了1800年的沉寂
10:17
to whoof, suddenly shooting through the roof.
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突然一飛沖天
10:20
India is one of those examples.
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印度就是這種國家
10:22
This is Indian growth from 1960 to 2010.
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這是印度1960年到2010年的成長圖
10:26
Ignore the scale on the bottom for a second.
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請暫時忽略下方的標示
10:29
Actually, for the first 20 years,
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其實開始的20年
10:32
the '60s and '70s, India didn't really grow.
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1960-70年代，印度成長平平
10:35
It grew at two percent
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只成長了2%
10:37
when population growth was about two and a half.
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其人口增長率則是2.5%
10:40
If that's familiar, that's exactly what happened
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如果似曾相識，因為這完全像
10:42
in sub-Sahara in the '80s and the '90s.
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非洲漠南1980-90年代
10:44
And then something happened in 1980.
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然後1980年出現變化
10:46
Boom! India began to explode.
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轟隆一聲，印度爆發了
10:48
It wasn't a "Hindu rate of growth,"
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這不是所謂的「印度式成長」
10:51
"democracies can't grow." Actually India could.
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「民主國家無法成長」。印度真的成長了
10:54
And if I lay sub-Saharan growth
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如果我把漠南的成長圖
10:57
on top of the Indian growth story,
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重疊在印度的成長圖上面
10:59
it's remarkably similar.
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二者非常相似
11:01
Twenty years of not much growth
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都有二十年的滯怠期
11:04
and a trend line which is actually telling you
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其實趨勢線顯示
11:05
that sub-Saharan African growth is
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漠南非洲的成長率
11:07
slightly better than India.
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會略優於印度
11:10
And if I then lay developing Asia on top of this,
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如果再加上亞洲發展中國家
11:13
I'm saying India is 20 years ahead of Africa,
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看得出來印度比非洲早發展20年
11:16
I'm saying developing Asia is 10 years ahead of India,
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亞洲發展中國家又比印度早十年
11:20
I can draw out some forecasts
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我能以此做出預測
11:22
for the next 30 to 40 years
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未來30到40年的預測
11:25
which I think are better
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我認為準確度會超過
11:27
than the ones where you're looking backwards.
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只根據非洲過去紀錄的預測
11:30
And that tells me this:
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我的預測顯示
11:32
that Africa is going to go
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非洲將從
11:34
from a $2 trillion economy today
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現在兩兆美元的經濟體
11:37
to a $29 trillion economy by 2050.
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躍升為2050年29兆美元的經濟體
11:41
Now that's bigger than Europe and America
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2008
這個數字大於歐洲和美國
11:43
put together in today's money.
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現值的總和
11:46
Life expectancy is going to go up by 13 years.
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平均壽命將增加13歲
11:50
The population's going to double
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人口將倍增
11:52
from one billion to two billion,
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從十億變成20億
11:54
so household incomes are going to go up sevenfold
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家戶所得將成長七倍
11:57
in the next 35 years.
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再過35年這些均可實現
12:00
And when I present this in Africa --
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我在非洲提出這些數據時
12:03
Nairobi, Lagos, Accra -- I get one question.
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在奈洛比、拉哥斯、阿克拉，我聽到一種質疑
12:07
"Charlie, why are you so pessimistic?"
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「查理，你的預測為什麼那麼悲觀？」
12:12
And you know what?
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老實說
12:13
Actually, I think they've got a point.
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我還真覺得他們有點道理
12:16
Am I really saying that there can be nothing learned,
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我難道真的認定非洲
12:18
yes from the positives in Asia and India,
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不能汲取亞洲和印度的優點
12:22
but also the negatives?
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以及失敗的經驗？
12:23
Perhaps Africa can avoid some of the mistakes that have been made.
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或許非洲能避免重蹈一些覆轍
12:26
Surely, the technologies that we're talking about here
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當然，在這裡討論過的科技
12:29
this last week,
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上周討論過的科技
12:31
surely some of these can perhaps
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1944
其中總有一些
12:32
help Africa grow even faster?
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或許能幫助非洲成長更快？
12:35
And I think here we can play a role.
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我相信在場的都可以參與
12:38
Because technology does let you help.
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因為可以藉由科技幫上忙
12:40
You can go and download
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你現在就可以下載
12:43
some of the great African literature
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一些非洲文學巨著
12:45
from the Internet now.
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這些都在網上
12:46
No, not right now, just 30 seconds.
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別現在下載，我再30秒就會講完
12:49
You can go and buy some of the great tunes.
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你可以買些很棒的非洲音樂
12:51
My iPod's full of them.
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我的iPod裡面有很多
12:53
Buy African products.
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購買非洲產品
12:55
Go on holiday and see for yourself
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去非洲度假，親眼觀察
12:57
the change that's happening.
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日新月異的非洲
12:58
Invest.
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投資
12:59
Perhaps hire people, give them the skills
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或許聘用非洲人，傳授技能
13:02
that they can take back to Africa,
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他們學成後返回非洲
13:04
and their companies will grow an awful lot faster
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其公司的成長速度會遠高於
13:06
than most of ours here in the West.
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大多數西方公司
13:09
And then you and I can help make sure
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然後你我可以幫忙成全一件事：
13:13
that for Africa, the 21st century is their century.
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讓21世紀成為非洲的世紀
13:17
Thank you very much.
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非常感謝
13:19
(Applause)
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4000
(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Charles Robertson - Emerging-markets economistIn "The Fastest Billion," Charles Robertson re-examines the narrative of economic growth in African nations.
Why you should listen
Checking one's assumptions about "Africa" has become a trope -- but it's still important to do, and still surprising. In The Fastest Billion, economist Charles Robertson and his co-authors suggest that behind the stereotyped narrative are some jawdropping indicators of extreme economic and social growth. He and colleagues make the case that Africa is moving away -- quickly -- from the "bottom billion" and "will be the fastest continent to reach the fourth economic age ... of high-income, low-corruption and generally democratic norms." Rich in resources, and powered by young people who are holding leaders to account in new ways, Africa’s economies are now returning some of the highest growth rates on Earth. How will this trend play out?
Robertson, a leading emerging markets specialist, is the global chief economist and head of the macro-strategy unit at Renaissance Capital, where he covers the global economic themes having the greatest impact on emerging markets.
Charles Robertson | Speaker | TED.com