TEDGlobal 2009
Loretta Napoleoni: The intricate economics of terrorism
Loretta Napoleoni: 錯綜複雜的恐怖主義經濟學
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Loretta Napoleoni 因為一次難得的機會，與義大利「赤軍」的會談後，決定深入探索恐怖組織，後來變成她一生的興趣。她告訴大家恐怖組織背後錯綜複雜的運作方式，並揭開美國愛國者法案與組織洗錢的關聯。
Loretta Napoleoni - Macroeconomist
She made her name following the dollars in terrorist networks, but now Loretta Napoleoni is on the trail of something far more sinister -- the gray zone where crime and unregulated credit meet. Full bio
She made her name following the dollars in terrorist networks, but now Loretta Napoleoni is on the trail of something far more sinister -- the gray zone where crime and unregulated credit meet. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I'm going to show you how terrorism
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我今天要談的是
00:18
actually interacts with our daily life.
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恐怖主義與日常生活的關係
00:21
15 years ago I received a phone call from a friend.
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15年前我接到一通朋友打來的電話
00:25
At the time he was looking after the rights of political prisoners
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當時他致力於確保義大利政治犯
00:28
in Italian jails.
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在監獄的權利
00:31
He asked me if I wanted to interview the Red Brigades.
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他問我想不想訪問「赤軍」
00:35
Now, as many of you may remember,
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各位應該都記得
00:37
the Red Brigades was a terrorist, Marxist organization
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「赤軍」是馬克思主義的恐怖組織
00:41
which was very active in Italy
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1960年代到1980年中期
00:43
from the 1960s until the mid-1980s.
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在義大利非常活躍
00:47
As part of their strategy
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他們的策略之一
00:49
the Red Brigades never spoke with anybody, not even with their lawyers.
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就是絕不開口，就算是跟他們的律師也一樣
00:53
They sat in silence through their trails,
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在法庭上完全靜默
00:57
waving occasionally at family and friends.
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偶爾與家人朋友揮揮手
01:01
In 1993 they declared the end of the armed struggle.
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1993年他們宣布停止武裝鬥爭
01:07
And they drew a list of people with whom they would talk,
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並列出一張名單，他們只與名單上的人說話
01:09
and tell their story.
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說出他們的故事
01:11
And I was one of those people.
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我是其中一個人
01:14
When I asked my friend why the Red Brigades want to talk to me,
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我問我朋友，為什麼赤軍想找我
01:17
he said that the female members of the organization
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他說，他們有個女成員
01:21
had actually supported my name.
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替我背書
01:24
In particular, one person had put it forward.
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不只如此，她還推薦我
01:27
She was my childhood friend.
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她就是我童年好友
01:30
She had joined the Red Brigades
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她加入赤色軍團
01:32
and became a leader of the organization.
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還變成領導者之一
01:35
Naturally, I didn't know that
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當然，她被逮前
01:37
until the day she was arrested.
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我完全不曉得
01:39
In fact, I read it in the newspaper.
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我還是看報紙才知道的
01:43
At the time of the phone call
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當時接到電話時
01:45
I just had a baby,
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我才剛生完小孩
01:47
I successfully completed a management buyout
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替公司處理完一筆
01:49
to the company I was working with,
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管理層收購交易
01:52
and the last thing I wanted to do was to go back home
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我最不想做的
01:55
and touring the high-security prisons.
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就是到高度保全的監獄
01:58
But this is exactly what I did
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但我就這麼做了
02:01
because I wanted to know
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因為我想知道
02:03
what had turned my best friend
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為什麼我的好朋友
02:05
into a terrorist,
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會是恐怖份子
02:07
and why she'd never tried to recruit me.
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還有，她為什麼從不試著徵召我
02:11
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
02:13
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
02:16
So, this is exactly what I did.
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所以我到了監獄
02:21
Now, I found the answer very quickly.
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馬上就知道答案了
02:25
I actually had failed
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因為我不符合
02:27
the psychological profiling of a terrorist.
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恐怖份子的性格特徵
02:30
The center committee of the Red Brigades
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赤軍的高層
02:32
had judged me too single-minded
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認為我做事太專一
02:34
and too opinionated to become a good terrorist.
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意見太多，所以不能當恐怖份子
02:38
My friend, on the other hand, she was a good terrorist
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我的朋友，相反地，非常稱職
02:41
because she was very good at following orders.
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因為她服從命令
02:44
She also embraced violence.
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也喜歡暴力
02:47
Because she believed that the only way
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因為她認為，
02:49
to unblock what, at the time,
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脫離義大利當時
02:52
was known as a blocked democracy,
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封閉式民主的唯一方法－
02:54
Italy, a country run by the same party for 35 years
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當時同一政黨統治長達35年
02:58
was the arms struggle.
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－只有武裝鬥爭
03:02
At the same time, while I was interviewing the Red Brigades,
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所以當時我訪問著赤軍
03:05
I also discovered that their life was not ruled
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我發現驅使他們的並不是
03:08
by politics or ideology,
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政治或意識型態
03:11
but actually was ruled by economics.
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而是經濟
03:14
They were constantly short of cash.
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他們常常沒錢花
03:17
They were constantly searching for cash.
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常常需要現金
03:20
Now, contrary to what many people believe,
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和大家認知正好相反
03:22
terrorism is actually a very expensive business.
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恐怖組織是個很花錢的行業
03:26
I'll give you an idea.
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給大家個概念
03:28
In the 1970s, the turnover of the Red Brigades
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1970年代，赤軍的週轉額
03:33
on a yearly basis
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每年是
03:35
was seven million dollars.
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7百萬美金
03:37
This is roughly between 100
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現在的話大約是
03:39
and 150 million, today.
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1億到1億5千萬
03:41
Now, you know, if you live underground
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如果你是地下集團
03:44
it's really hard to produce this amount of money.
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是很難籌出這筆錢的
03:49
But this also explains why, when I was interviewing the Red Brigades,
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這也解答了為什麼後來我訪問赤軍
03:53
and then, later on, other arms organizations,
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以及其他武裝組織時
03:56
including members of al-Zarqawi group in the Middle East,
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包括了中東的基地組織
04:01
everybody was extremely reluctant
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大家都不願意談到
04:04
to talk about ideology, or politics.
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意識型態或政治
04:07
Because they had no idea.
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因為他們根本不懂
04:09
The political vision of a terrorist organization
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恐怖組織的政治觀
04:13
is decided by the leadership,
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是由領導層決定的
04:16
which, generally, is never more than five to seven people.
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通常只有5到7人，不會超過
04:19
All the others do, day in and day out,
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那其他人，就整天在外
04:22
is search for money.
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想辦法籌錢
04:24
Once, for example, I was interviewing
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有一次，我訪問了
04:26
this part-timer from the Red Brigades.
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赤軍一位兼差的成員
04:29
It was a psychiatrist. He loved sailing.
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他是精神科醫生，喜歡航海
04:31
He was a really keen sailor. And he had this beautiful boat.
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非常厲害的水手，自己也有艘船
04:35
And he told me that the best time of his life
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他說他生命中最棒的一段日子
04:37
was when he was a member of the Red Brigades
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就是加入赤軍的時候
04:40
and he went sailing, every summer, back and forth
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因為他每年夏天，可以乘船來回
04:42
from Lebanon, where he would pick up
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黎巴嫩，負責從巴勒斯坦解放組織那
04:44
Soviet weapons from the PLO,
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將蘇聯的武器
04:46
and then carry them all the way to Sardinia
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一路運到薩丁尼亞
04:49
where the other arms organization from Europe would go
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然後歐洲其他武裝組織
04:52
and take their share of the arms.
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共同分領那些武器
04:55
For that service the Red Brigades were actually paid a fee,
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替赤軍賺取一些佣金
04:59
which went to fund their organization.
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後來拿做成立組織的資金
05:02
So, because I am a trained economist
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所以，由於我是經濟學家
05:05
and I think in economic terms,
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我用經濟學術語思考
05:07
all of the sudden I thought,
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我突然想到
05:09
maybe there is something here.
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也許兩者之間
05:11
Maybe there is a link, a commercial link,
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組織與組織之間
05:13
between one organization and another one.
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是有商業關聯的
05:17
But it was only when I interviewed
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直到我訪問了
05:20
Mario Moretti, the head of the Red Brigades,
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赤軍的領導者馬里奧·莫雷蒂(Mario Moretti)
05:24
the man who kidnapped and killed Aldo Moro,
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－他綁架、殺害了義大利前總理
05:27
Italian former prime minister,
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阿爾多·莫羅(Aldo Moro)—
05:30
that I finally realized
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最終，我才了解到
05:32
that terrorism is actually business.
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恐怖主義其實是一種商業活動
05:35
I was having lunch with him
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我在高度戒備的
05:37
in a high-security prison in Italy.
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義大利監獄與他午餐會談
05:39
And as we were eating,
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我們吃著
05:42
I had the distinct feeling
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我馬上有種
05:44
that I was back in the city of London,
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回到倫敦街頭
05:47
having lunch with a fellow banker or an economist.
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和我銀行家朋友吃飯的感覺
05:51
This guy thought in the same way I did.
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他和我有相同的思考模式
05:55
So, I decided that I wanted to investigate the economics of terrorism.
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所以，我決定調查恐怖組織的經濟
06:01
Naturally, nobody wanted to fund my research.
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當然，沒有人想贊助我
06:05
In fact, I think many people thought that I was a bit crazy.
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大家都覺得我瘋了
06:07
You know, that woman that goes around to foundations
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這女人到處籌錢
06:10
asking for money, thinking about the economics of terrorism.
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竟然是想研究恐怖主義經濟學
06:14
So, in the end, I took a decision
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最後，我的決定
06:17
that, in retrospect, did change my life.
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後來想想，改變我一生的決定
06:20
I sold my company,
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我賣掉我公司
06:22
and funded the research myself.
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自己贊助自己
06:25
And what I discovered
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我發現他們
06:27
is this parallel reality,
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其實是個平行世界
06:29
another international economic system,
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與我們國際經濟體系
06:33
which runs parallel to our own,
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平行的世界
06:36
which has been created by arms organizations
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從二次大戰開始
06:38
since the end of World War II.
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由武裝組織運作的世界
06:40
And what is even more shocking
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更吃驚的是
06:42
is that this system
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他們的運作
06:46
has followed, step by step, the evolution
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與我們西方資本主義
06:49
of our own system,
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的運作過程
06:51
of our Western capitalism.
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是一樣的
06:53
And there are three main stages.
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總共有三階段
06:56
The first one is the state sponsor of terrorism.
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第一階段，政府贊助的恐怖行動
06:59
The second one is the privatization of terrorism.
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第二階段，恐怖組織民營化
07:02
And the third, of course, is the globalization of terrorism.
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第三階段，當然就是恐怖主義全球化
07:06
So, state sponsor of terrorism,
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政府贊助的恐怖行動－
07:09
feature of the Cold War.
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冷戰的寫照
07:11
This is when the two superpowers were fighting
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當時美國和蘇聯一邊忙著打
07:13
a war by proxy,
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代理人戰爭
07:15
along the periphery of the sphere of influence,
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一邊忙著利用武裝組織
07:18
fully funding arms organizations.
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來鞏固勢力範圍
07:21
A mix of legal and illegal activities is used.
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結合一切合法、非法行動
07:24
So, the link between crime and terror
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所以犯罪與恐怖行動的聯繫
07:27
is established very early on.
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其實很早就存在了
07:30
And here is the best example,
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最好的例子就是
07:32
the Contras in Nicaragua, created by the CIA,
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CIA創造出的尼加拉瓜反抗軍
07:35
legally funded by the U.S. Congress,
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檯面上由美國國會合法贊助
07:38
illegally funded by the Reagan administration
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檯面下是雷根政府
07:41
via covert operation, for example, the Iran-Contra Affair.
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透過像是伊朗門事件的秘密行動非法贊助
07:47
Then comes the late 1970s, early '80s,
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後來1970年代晚期，1980年代初期
07:50
and some groups successfully carry out
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有些組織成功的將
07:53
the privatization of terrorism.
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恐怖組織民營化
07:55
So, they gain independence from the sponsor,
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他們從贊助人那裡獨立
07:58
and start funding themselves.
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自己創造資金
08:02
Now, again we see a mix of legal and illegal activities.
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再次看到結合法、非法行動的結合
08:07
So, Arafat used to get a percentage
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阿拉法特(巴解組織領袖)
08:10
of the smuggling of hashish
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從貝卡谷－
08:13
from Bekáa Valley, which is the valley between Lebanon and Syria.
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黎巴嫩與敘利亞間的的山谷－走私大麻來抽成
08:17
And the IRA, which control the private transportation system
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還有愛爾蘭共和軍(IRA)，他們掌控北愛的
08:21
in Northern Ireland, did exactly the same thing.
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民營運輸系統，也是相同的
08:24
So, every single time
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所以每一次
08:26
that somebody got into a taxi in Belfast
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有人在貝爾法斯特(Belfast)搭計程車
08:29
without knowing, actually,
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其實都無形地
08:31
was funding the IRA.
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在資助 IRA
08:34
But the great change came, of course,
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當然，透過全球化與去管制化
08:36
with globalization and deregulation.
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後來有了重大改變
08:39
This is when arms organization were able to link up,
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這階段各個組織相互連結起來
08:42
also financially, with each other.
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財務上也是
08:44
But above all, they started to do
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除此之外，他們開始了
08:46
serious business with the world of crime.
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非法商業活動
08:49
And together they money-laundered
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包含替他們的骯髒行業
08:51
their dirty business through the same channel.
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用同樣方法洗錢
08:55
This is when we see the birth of the transnational
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接著，我們看到了跨國際武裝團體
08:58
arms organization Al Qaeda.
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基地組織(Al Qaeda)的誕生
09:01
This is an organization that can raise money across border.
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這組織可以在跨國籌措資金的同時
09:04
But also that is able to carry out attacks
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發起位於另一國家
09:07
in more than one country.
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的恐怖攻擊
09:10
Now, deregulation also brought back
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去管制化同時也造成
09:13
rogue economics.
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無賴經濟學的重現
09:15
So what is rogue economics?
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無賴經濟學是什麼？
09:17
Rogue economics is a force which is constantly
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它是一種歷史中
09:19
lurking in the background of history.
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不斷出現的一股力量
09:23
It comes back at times of great transformation,
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重大轉變的時候常可看到它的身影
09:26
globalization being one of those transformations.
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全球化也是重大轉變之一
09:29
It is at this times in which
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這也是在
09:32
politics actually loses control of the economy,
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政治開始失去經濟控制權時
09:35
and the economy becomes a rogue force
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經濟變成一種反向力量
09:38
working against us.
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與我們相對
09:40
It has happened before in history.
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歷史曾經發生
09:41
It has happened with the fall of the Roman Empire.
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羅馬帝國衰落時也發生過
09:45
It has happened with Industrial Revolution.
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還有工業革命也是
09:47
And it actually happened again, with the fall of the Berlin wall.
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後來還有一次，在柏林圍牆倒塌時
09:52
Now, I calculated how big was this international
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所以我計算了這個由犯罪、
09:57
economic system composed by crime,
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恐怖行動、非法組成的
09:59
terror, and illegal economy,
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經濟體營業額
10:02
before 9-11.
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在911以前
10:04
And it is a staggering 1.5 trillion dollars.
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是可觀的1.5兆美金
10:09
It is trillions, it's not billions.
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兆，不只是億而已
10:11
This is about twice the GDP of the United Kingdom,
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大概是英國兩倍的國內生產毛額
10:14
soon will be more,
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之後會更多
10:16
considering where this country is going.
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考量到現在英國的狀況
10:18
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
10:21
Now, until 9-11,
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911之前
10:23
the bulk of all this money
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大部分資金
10:25
flew into the U.S. economy
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都流入美國市場
10:27
because the bulk of the money was denominated in U.S. dollars
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這筆錢大部分是美元
10:31
and the money laundering was taking place
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所以洗錢活動都在
10:34
inside the United States.
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美國境內
10:36
The entry point, of course, of most of this money
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大部分的金錢都是從
10:39
were the off-shore facilities.
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海外機構流入
10:41
So, this was a vital injection of cash
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這筆資金便注入
10:45
into the U.S. economy.
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美國經濟
10:48
Now, when I went to look at the figures of the U.S. money supply,
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當我查看美國貨幣供應數據
10:53
the U.S. money supply is the amount
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美國貨幣供應
10:55
of dollars that the Federal Reserve
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也就是美聯儲
10:58
prints every year
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每年，為滿足
11:00
in order to satisfy
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金錢的需求
11:02
the increase in the demand for dollars,
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而印出的鈔票量
11:05
which, of course, reflects the growth
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同時也反映出
11:07
of the economy.
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經濟成長
11:09
So, when I went to look at those figures, I noted that since the late 1960s
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當我細看這些數據，我發現1960年代晚期
11:13
a growing number of these dollars
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這些錢事實上
11:17
was actually leaving the United States,
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已經流出美國
11:19
never to come back.
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沒有再回來
11:22
These were money taken out
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這些現金
11:24
in suitcases or in containers, in cash of course.
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用提箱、貨箱裝著運出去
11:28
These were money taken out by criminals and money launderers.
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這些錢都由罪犯、洗錢者帶出的
11:31
These were money taken out to fund
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這些錢都貢獻給
11:34
the growth of the terror,
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恐怖組織的發展
11:36
illegal and criminal economy.
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以及非法、犯罪經濟
11:40
So, you see, what is the relationship?
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看出關聯了嗎？
11:44
The United States actually is a country
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美國事實上是全球的
11:48
that is the reserve currency of the world.
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貨幣儲存地
11:52
What does it mean? That means that
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這代表什麼？
11:54
it has a privilege that other countries do not have.
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別的國家都沒有這項特權
11:57
It can borrow against the total amount of dollars
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美金可以在世界各國
12:01
in circulation in the world.
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任意流通、借貸
12:03
This privilege is called seigniorage.
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這特權就是鑄幣稅
12:06
No other country can do that.
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其他國家無法做到
12:09
All the other countries, for example the United Kingdom,
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其他國家，像是英國
12:11
can borrow only against the amount of money
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只能用自己的貨幣
12:15
in circulation inside its own borders.
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在境內借錢
12:19
So, here is the implication of the relationship
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這就是我們的經濟體
12:21
between the worlds of crime, terror, and illegal economy, and our economy.
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和犯罪世界經濟體的關連
12:26
The U.S. in the 1990s
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1990年代的美國發展
12:29
was borrowing against the growth
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是透過犯罪世界經濟體的成長
12:31
of the terror, illegal and criminal economy.
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來借貸資金的
12:35
This is how close we are with this world.
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兩個世界非常接近
12:40
Now, this situation changed, of course, after 9-11,
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當然，911過後，事情改變了
12:42
because George Bush launched the War on Terror.
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因為布希發起反恐戰爭
12:45
Part of the War on Terror
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反恐戰爭一部份
12:47
was the introduction of the Patriot Act.
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是愛國者法案的出現
12:50
Now, many of you know that the Patriot Act
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各位都知道愛國者法案
12:52
is a legislation that greatly reduces
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極大地縮減了
12:55
the liberties of Americans in order to protect them
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美國人的自由，來保護他們
12:58
against terrorism.
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防止恐怖主義
13:00
But there is a section of the Patriot Act
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但在愛國者法案中有項條款
13:02
which refers specifically to finance.
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針對金融的條款
13:04
And it is, in fact, an anti-money-laundering legislation.
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就是反洗錢法
13:08
What the Patriot Act did was
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愛國者法案
13:10
to prohibit U.S. bank,
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就是禁止美國銀行
13:12
and U.S.-registered foreign banks
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或是國外美國銀行
13:14
from doing any businesses with off-shore facilities.
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4000
與海外機構來往
13:18
It closed that door between the money laundering
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所以關閉了洗錢與美國經濟的
13:21
in dollars, and the U.S. economy.
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往來門戶
13:24
It also gave the U.S. monetary authorities
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同時也給了美國財政當局
13:29
the right to monitor any dollar transaction
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監督任何交易的權利
13:32
taking place anywhere in the world.
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世界上所有美金交易
13:36
Now, you can imagine what was the reaction of the international
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你們可以想像國際金融、銀行市場
13:38
finance and banking.
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的反應
13:40
All the bankers said to their clients,
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銀行家都告訴客戶
13:43
"Get out of the dollars and go and invest somewhere else."
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趕快賣掉美金買別的貨幣
13:46
Now, the Euro was a newly born currency
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3000
當時歐元是新興貨幣
13:49
of great opportunity for business, and, of course, for investment.
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4000
是商業投資的大好機會
13:53
And this is what people did.
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大家的確這麼做了
13:55
Nobody wants the U.S. monetary authority
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沒人希望美國財政當局
13:57
to check their relationship,
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調查他們
13:59
to monitor their relationship with their clientele.
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監督他們與客戶的關係
14:03
The same thing happened, of course,
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犯罪、恐怖組織的世界
14:05
in the world of crime and terror.
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也是一樣的
14:09
People simply moved their money-laundering activities
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他們將洗錢活動
14:14
away from the United States
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從美國
14:17
into Europe.
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轉入歐洲
14:20
Why did this happen? This happened because
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為什麼會這樣？
14:22
the Patriot Act was a unilateral legislation.
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因為愛國者法案是一項單邊立法
14:25
It was introduced only in the United States.
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只有美國有
14:27
And it was introduced only for the U.S. dollars.
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它也僅僅適用於美金
14:30
In Europe, a similar legislation
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歐洲並沒有
14:32
was not introduced.
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類似的立法
14:34
So, within six months
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2000
所以半年內
14:36
Europe became the epicenter
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歐洲變成
14:38
of the money-laundering activities
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世界洗錢犯罪
14:41
of the world.
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3000
的中心
14:44
So, this is how incredible are the relationship
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這就是我們的世界
14:48
between the world of crime
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與犯罪世界
14:50
and the world of terror,
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2000
及恐怖組織的世界
14:52
and our own life.
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之間的關係
14:55
So, why did I tell you this story?
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為什麼我要講這故事？
14:57
I told you this story because you
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我說這故事是想告訴你
14:59
must understand that there is a world
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一定要了解那個
15:02
that goes well beyond the headlines of the newspapers,
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報紙頭條背後的世界
15:06
including the personal relationship that you have
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包含你與親朋好友之間
15:08
with friends and family.
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的關係
15:11
You got to question everything that is told to you,
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你一定要質詢別人告訴你的任何事
15:14
including what I just told you today.
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包括我今天說的故事
15:16
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
15:18
This is the only way for you
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了解黑暗的那方
15:20
to step into the dark side, and have a look at it.
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唯一的方法就是深入其境
15:23
And believe me,
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相信我
15:25
it's going to be scary.
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它將會很可怕、
15:27
It's going to be frightful, but it's going to enlighten you.
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很嚇人，但會給你啟發
15:30
And, above all, it's not going to be boring.
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更重要的，它並不無聊
15:33
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
15:35
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Loretta Napoleoni - MacroeconomistShe made her name following the dollars in terrorist networks, but now Loretta Napoleoni is on the trail of something far more sinister -- the gray zone where crime and unregulated credit meet.
Why you should listen
Once it was easy to know where our money was going. Now we live under a system Loretta Napoleoni has dubbed "rogue economics," where the blurry histories of the products we consume and the cash we invest make us complicit in financing barely legal credit schemes -- and even crime, if it's the slavery producing the beans for our lattes or the guts of our mobile phones.
The reach of the newly global market, as Napoleoni argues in her new book, Rogue Economics: Capitalism's New Reality, connects us all to the dark side, regardless of our intentions to be responsible -- and, she says, our deep connection to fishy credit and unregulated finance has laid the groundwork for the current economic crisis. Her previous book, Terror Incorporated, dives into the true economic impact of terrorism.
Loretta Napoleoni | Speaker | TED.com