Sebastian Thrun and Chris Anderson: What AI is -- and isn't
Sebastian Thrun y Chris Anderson: La nueva generación de computadoras se programa a sí misma
Sebastian Thrun is a passionate technologist who is constantly looking for new opportunities to make the world better for all of us. Full bioChris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
qué es el aprendizaje de máquina
what machine learning is,
y la preocupación
and also of the concern
intelligence and machine learning
artificial y el aprendizaje de máquina
hasta hace poco.
in its past until recently.
de computación y conjuntos de datos
of computing and datasets
a las máquinas inteligentes.
por ejemplo, tu teléfono,
say, your phone,
de cocina muy, muy larga,
very long kitchen recipe,
caliente, baja la temperatura;
turn down the temperature.
sube la temperatura".
the temperature."
tienen millones de líneas.
has 12 million lines of code.
tiene 12 millones de líneas de código.
de líneas de código.
puede hacer que colapse tu computadora,
can cause your computer to crash.
gana tanto dinero.
makes so much money.
can find their own rules.
pueden encontrar sus propias reglas.
un experto descifre, paso a paso,
deciphering, step by step,
ejemplos a la computadora
the computer examples
que hace poco ganó Google.
which recently was won by Google.
escribirías todas las reglas,
you would really write down all the rules,
de un millón de jugadas
residing Go champion.
al campeón mundial de go.
the software engineer
exime al ingeniero de software
where this has become really possible --
donde esto se volvió realmente posible...
fue sobre aprendizaje de máquina,
was about machine learning.
no la lean, porque fue hace 20 años
insignificant, don't read it,
tamaño del cerebro de una cucaracha.
were as big as a cockroach brain.
para realmente emular
to really emulate
take advantage of the fact
que una persona.
much more data than people can.
más de un millón de jugadas,
more than a million games.
un millón de jugadas.
study a million games.
100 000 millones de páginas web.
a hundred billion web pages.
100 000 millones de páginas web.
a hundred billion web pages.
the computer can find rules
puede encontrar reglas
"si él hace eso, yo hago aquello",
to, "If he does that, I will do that,"
un modelo exitoso,
looks like a winning pattern,
a winning pattern."
a los niños.
how you raise children.
dándoles una regla para cada situación,
giving kids a rule for every contingency
con este gran programa.
and they have this big program.
reciben una bofetada o nalgada,
they get slapped or spanked,
una buena nota en la escuela,
a good grade in school,
computadoras sea más fácil ahora.
so much easier all of a sudden.
We just give them lots of data.
solo les damos muchos datos.
el avance tan importante
to the spectacular improvement
de un vehículo autónomo
en una filial llamada Voyage.
into a spin-off called Voyage.
called deep learning
para auto-manejarse,
from Mountain View, California,
California a San Francisco
and 133 traffic lights.
de vehículos autónomos en Google.
the Google self-driving car team.
a los mejores ingenieros de software
the world's best software engineers
al cerebro de la computadora,
into the computer brain,
that often surpasses human agility.
en ocasiones, supera la agilidad humana.
about 33 miles, an hour and a half.
53 km, una hora y media.
izquierda de esta pantalla
of this program on the left,
identifica como camiones y autos
the computer sees as trucks and cars
la cámara, que es la fuente principal,
image, which is the main input here,
otros autos, los semáforos...
other cars, traffic lights.
to do distance estimation.
para estimar distancia.
en este tipo de sistemas.
in these kind of systems.
de láser donde se ven
and so on depicted by the laser.
representados por el láser.
está en la imagen de la cámara.
is centering on the camera image now.
sensores de precisión,
sensors like radars and lasers
hacia sensores muy baratos.
a la izquierda, ¿qué es?
on the left thing, what is that?
el regulador de velocidad adaptable,
for your adaptive cruise control,
cómo regular la velocidad
how to regulate velocity
con los autos de adelante.
the cars in front of you are.
got an example, I think,
learning part takes place.
de aprendizaje en sí.
que hicimos a los estudiantes de Udacity
a challenge to Udacity students
que llamamos Nanodegree.
a self-driving car Nanodegree.
y les dijimos:
how to steer this car?"
cómo dirigir este auto?"
es casi imposible dirigirlo bien.
to get the steering right.
"It's a deep learning competition,
e inteligencia artificial,
like Google or Facebook,
como Google o Facebook,
al menos seis meses de trabajo.
at least six months of work.
estaba perfecto.
100 entregas de estudiantes,
100 submissions from students,
perfectamente bien.
podría manejar con estas imágenes,
drive on this imagery,
a una computadora,
to a computer now,
to comprehend the data,
comprenderla,
of powerful applications
de aplicaciones muy poderosas
the other day about cancer.
CA: This is cool.
CA: Esto es genial.
a lo que está sucediendo
into what's happening
dependiendo cómo se quiera ver,
400,000 dollars a year,
to be a good dermatologist.
toma más de una década de capacitación.
de aprendizaje de máquina.
the machine learning version of it.
for these machine learning algorithms.
de aprendizaje de máquina.
por Yann LeCun, un Facebook Fellow,
by a Facebook Fellow called Yann LeCun,
as the human brain.
pero lo emula.
but it emulates the same thing.
visual y extrae los bordes
the visual input and extracts edges
bordes más complicados
more complicated edges
conceptos complejos.
really complicated concepts.
cat faces and dog faces
caras de gatos y perros
at Stanford has shown is that
en Stanford ha logrado demostrar
of skin conditions,
imágenes de enfermedades de la piel,
that this is the case,
que le presentamos a nuestra red
that we presented to our network
acreditados, de Stanford,
Stanford-level dermatologists,
su precisión al clasificar
the performance classification accuracy
que la de los dermatólogos humanos.
That's a moving piece.
publicamos en "Nature" este año
in "Nature" earlier this year
dermatologists images
we had the correct classification.
para confirmar su clasificación.
por uno de nuestros colaboradores.
by one of our collaborators.
que nuestro colaborador,
internacionalmente,
one of the three best, apparently,
"This is not skin cancer."
"Esto no es cáncer de piel".
a second moment, where he said,
y abrió nuestro software,
and ran our piece of software,
por así decirlo,
the iPhone a little bit more than myself,"
en el iPhone que en mí mismo",
para hacerle una biopsia.
to get it biopsied.
that we actually found,
en la práctica,
hubiera pasado sin diagnosticar
would have gone unclassified,
instantánea por una aplicación como esta,
for an app like this right now,
¿Crear una aplicación de autodiagnóstico?
making an app that allows self-checking?
sobre aplicaciones para cáncer,
about cancer apps,
10, 15 o 20 melanomas,
10, 15, 20 melanomas removed,
les pase desapercibido, como este,
might be overlooked, like this one,
para conferencias, supongo.
these days, I guess.
estudiarlo más.
y deslumbrar al público de TED;
and impress a TED audience.
something out that's ethical.
the assistance of a doctor
and our data holds up,
este tipo de tecnología,
to take this kind of technology
de Stanford nunca irían.
doctors never, ever set foot.
ejército de estudiantes de Udacity,
with this army of Udacity students,
otro modo de aprendizaje de máquina
a different form of machine learning
with a form of crowd wisdom.
de máquina con sabiduría colectiva.
that could actually outperform
se podrían sobrepasar
incluso una grande?
even a vast company?
que me asombran,
instances that blow my mind,
competencias que hacemos.
is these competitions that we run.
un vehículo autónomo
a self-driving car
a San Francisco por las calles.
to San Francisco on surface streets.
ellos llevan siete años trabajando en esto
after seven years of Google work,
y tres meses lograrlo.
and three months to do this.
an army of students
un ejército de estudiantes
colaboración abierta:
who use crowdsourcing.
de colaboración abierta
where people do bug-finding crowdsourcing
in crowdsourcing.
vehículo en tres meses,
this car in three months,
who are never hired,
and I don't even know.
maybe 9,000 answers.
which is maybe not the best thing to do.
puede que no sea lo mejor.
de su educación, que está bien.
of their education, too, which is nice.
maravillosos en aprendizaje profundo.
to produce amazing deep learning results.
buen aprendizaje de máquina es fenomenal.
and great machine learning is amazing.
el primer día de TED2017
the first day [of TED2017]
resultaron ser dos jugadores amateur
turned out to be two amateur chess players
de computadora semi-mediocres,
mediocre-to-good, computer programs,
con un jugador maravilloso,
with one great chess player,
de una versión más sofisticada
you're talking about a much richer version
the fantastic panels yesterday morning,
paneles de discusión de ayer,
y "La respuesta humana",
es que a veces confundimos
that we sometimes confuse
with this kind of overlord threat,
con este riesgo de que nos dominen,
consciencia, ¿cierto?
consciousness, right?
mi IA desarrolle consciencia.
is for my AI to have consciousness.
with the dishwasher
se enamore de la lavadora,
suficientemente amable,
y no los quiero.
and I don't want them.
un mejoramiento del hombre
an augmentation of people.
las inteligencias humana y de máquina
of human smarts and machine smarts
is as old as machines are.
es tan antiguo como las máquinas mismas.
place because it made steam engines
cuando se creó la máquina de vapor
que no podía manejarse solo;
that couldn't farm by itself,
it made us stronger.
will make us much, much stronger
como seres humanos.
alarmante para algunos,
of this for some people,
scary for people is when you have
reescribir su propio código;
rewrite its own code,
multiple copies of itself,
incluso de manera aleatoria,
si la meta se cumplió y superó.
if a goal is achieved and improved.
es mejorar en una prueba de inteligencia.
on an intelligence test.
that's moderately good at that,
some sort of runaway effect
es que se salga de control,
on Thursday evening,
el jueves por la noche,
el viernes por la mañana,
on Friday morning,
of computers and so forth,
de la computadora,
what I heard you say.
tuvimos justamente eso:
we had exactly this thing:
the game against itself
is a rewriting of the rules.
es reescribir esas reglas,
absolutely no concern
son de un campo muy limitado.
these are all very single-domain things.
que era casi capaz
that seemed nearly capable
a la universidad;
como nosotros podemos,
and understand in the sense that we can,
puede asimilar todo el texto
patterns of meaning.
patrones de significado.
conforme esto se expande,
as this broadens out,
kind of runaway effect?
I draw the line, honestly.
-- no quiero restarle importancia --
I don't want to downplay it --
que ocupe mi mente ahora,
the thing that's on my mind these days,
is something else.
hasta el día de hoy
to the present date
la gran cantidad de jugadas de go,
is because of massive numbers of Go plays,
ni volar un avión.
or fly a plane.
o el de Udacity
or the Udacity self-driving car
y no pueden hacer otra cosa;
and it can't do anything else.
una motocicleta.
domain-specific function,
en lo que llamamos "IA general",
on this thing called "general AI,"
la teoría de la relatividad especial
"Hey, invent for me special relativity
and I want to acknowledge them.
que existe y la reconozco.
"What if we can take anything repetitive
cualquier actividad repetitiva
100 times as efficient?"
we all worked in agriculture
todos trabajábamos en el campo
y hacíamos cosas repetitivas.
trabaja en una oficina
en hojas de cálculo humanas.
doing repetitive things,
que hacen cosas repetitivas,
of being able to take an AI,
de poder tomar la IA,
más efectivos en estas cosas repetitivas.
as effective in these repetitive things.
aterrador para algunas personas,
a little terrifying to some people,
pueda realizar esta actividad repetitiva
can do this repetitive thing
es de lo que tanto se habla ahora,
is the thing that's talked about
aspectos más espectaculares posibles.
glorious aspects of what's possible.
un gran problema,
and it's a big issue,
varios oradores.
by several guest speakers.
optimistic person,
positiva y optimista,
hace 300 años.
back 300 years ago.
140 años de guerra continua,
of continuous war,
ingeniero de software o conductor de TV.
or software engineer or TV anchor.
cultivando.
con una máquina de vapor en su bolsillo,
with a little steam engine in his pocket,
para que puedan hacer otra cosa".
as strong, so you can do something else."
there was no real stage,
en el establo de las vacas,
with the cows in the stable,
concerned about it,
and what if the machine does this for me?"
esta máquina lo haga por mí?"
el progreso pasado y sus beneficios,
past progress and the benefit of it,
la electricidad o los utensilios médicos.
or electricity or medical supply.
which was impossible 300 years ago.
lo cual era imposible hace 300 años.
razonamiento hacia el futuro.
the same rules to the future.
de lo que hago es repetitivo,
of my work is repetitive,
estúpidos y repetitivos.
on stupid, repetitive email.
que me ayude a librarme de esto.
that helps me get rid of this.
somos extremadamente creativos;
are insanely creative;
more than anybody else.
creo que si toman un trago
I think you can go to your hotel maid
una idea creativa.
you find a creative idea.
esa creatividad en acción.
is to turn this creativity into action.
build Google in a day?
Google en un día?
and invent the next Snapchat,
e inventaras el siguiente Snapchat,
in my opinion.
serán maravillosos.
great side effects.
los aparatos médicos,
and education and shelter
affordable to all of us,
that this time it's different
que esta vez será distinto
que hemos usado en el pasado
that we've used in the past
is that, not completely,
distinto del tipo de creatividad
different from the kind of creativity
belief as an AI person --
en lo referente a creatividad
any real progress on creativity
really important for people to realize,
que la gente lo entienda,
artificial" es muy aterrador,
intelligence" is so threatening,
que crea una película,
tossing a movie in,
es nuestro líder supremo,
the computer is our overlord,
do repetitive things.
a hacer actividades repetitivas.
entirely on the repetitive end.
en las actividades repetitivas.
para la humanidad.
we've become superhuman.
nos hemos vuelto súper-humanos,
the Atlantic in 11 hours.
nadando en 11 horas.
nos responde alto y claro.
shouting back to us.
rompe las reglas de la Física.
We're breaking the rules of physics.
we're going to remember everything
etapa inicial de Alzheimer.
in my early stages of Alzheimer's.
Lo olvidé.
coeficiente intelectual de 1000 o más.
an IQ of 1,000 or more.
spelling classes for our kids,
de ortografía para los niños
los errores de ortografía.
is that we can be super creative.
que seremos súper creativos.
it's going to be painful,
de más que esos trabajos.
of more than those jobs.
un nuevo nivel de empoderamiento
to just a new level of empowerment
más o menos,
60-100,000 years old, give or take --
en cuanto a invenciones,
in terms of invention,
it's a little bit older.
es un poco más.
moderna, la penicilina...
manufacturing, penicillin --
encontraremos más cosas.
ha subido, no bajado, en mi opinión.
has gone up, not gone down, in my opinion.
de las cosas interesantes.
things have been invented yet. Right?
Espero cambiar esto.
Hopefully, I'll change this.
people laughed about. (Laughs)
Trabajar en secreto en coches voladores.
Working secretly on flying cars.
en el cerebro
implant in our brain
cuando lo tengan les encantará.
once you have it, you'll love it.
que todavía no inventamos,
we haven't invented yet
from one location to another.
que no se podría volar,
that flight wouldn't exist,
than you could run,
de lo que podías correr,
that you can't beam a person
a una persona de aquí a Marte?
and your brilliance.
y tu genialidad.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Sebastian Thrun - Educator, entrepreneurSebastian Thrun is a passionate technologist who is constantly looking for new opportunities to make the world better for all of us.
Why you should listen
Sebastian Thrun is an educator, entrepreneur and troublemaker. After a long life as a professor at Stanford University, Thrun resigned from tenure to join Google. At Google, he founded Google X, home to self-driving cars and many other moonshot technologies. Thrun also founded Udacity, an online university with worldwide reach, and Kitty Hawk, a "flying car" company. He has authored 11 books, 400 papers, holds 3 doctorates and has won numerous awards.
Sebastian Thrun | Speaker | TED.com
Chris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading.
Why you should listen
Chris Anderson is the Curator of TED, a nonprofit devoted to sharing valuable ideas, primarily through the medium of 'TED Talks' -- short talks that are offered free online to a global audience.
Chris was born in a remote village in Pakistan in 1957. He spent his early years in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where his parents worked as medical missionaries, and he attended an American school in the Himalayas for his early education. After boarding school in Bath, England, he went on to Oxford University, graduating in 1978 with a degree in philosophy, politics and economics.
Chris then trained as a journalist, working in newspapers and radio, including two years producing a world news service in the Seychelles Islands.
Back in the UK in 1984, Chris was captivated by the personal computer revolution and became an editor at one of the UK's early computer magazines. A year later he founded Future Publishing with a $25,000 bank loan. The new company initially focused on specialist computer publications but eventually expanded into other areas such as cycling, music, video games, technology and design, doubling in size every year for seven years. In 1994, Chris moved to the United States where he built Imagine Media, publisher of Business 2.0 magazine and creator of the popular video game users website IGN. Chris eventually merged Imagine and Future, taking the combined entity public in London in 1999, under the Future name. At its peak, it published 150 magazines and websites and employed 2,000 people.
This success allowed Chris to create a private nonprofit organization, the Sapling Foundation, with the hope of finding new ways to tackle tough global issues through media, technology, entrepreneurship and, most of all, ideas. In 2001, the foundation acquired the TED Conference, then an annual meeting of luminaries in the fields of Technology, Entertainment and Design held in Monterey, California, and Chris left Future to work full time on TED.
He expanded the conference's remit to cover all topics, including science, business and key global issues, while adding a Fellows program, which now has some 300 alumni, and the TED Prize, which grants its recipients "one wish to change the world." The TED stage has become a place for thinkers and doers from all fields to share their ideas and their work, capturing imaginations, sparking conversation and encouraging discovery along the way.
In 2006, TED experimented with posting some of its talks on the Internet. Their viral success encouraged Chris to begin positioning the organization as a global media initiative devoted to 'ideas worth spreading,' part of a new era of information dissemination using the power of online video. In June 2015, the organization posted its 2,000th talk online. The talks are free to view, and they have been translated into more than 100 languages with the help of volunteers from around the world. Viewership has grown to approximately one billion views per year.
Continuing a strategy of 'radical openness,' in 2009 Chris introduced the TEDx initiative, allowing free licenses to local organizers who wished to organize their own TED-like events. More than 8,000 such events have been held, generating an archive of 60,000 TEDx talks. And three years later, the TED-Ed program was launched, offering free educational videos and tools to students and teachers.
Chris Anderson | Speaker | TED.com