Sebastian Thrun and Chris Anderson: What AI is -- and isn't
塞巴斯蒂安·斯伦 和 克里斯·安德森: 新一代计算机会自己编程
Sebastian Thrun is a passionate technologist who is constantly looking for new opportunities to make the world better for all of us. Full bioChris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
给我们讲讲机器学习是什么,
what machine learning is,
还有围绕着人工智能的
and also of the concern
人工智能和机器学习
intelligence and machine learning
in its past until recently.
of computing and datasets
所必需的水平。
给自己打造一部智能手机,
say, your phone,
very long kitchen recipe,
turn down the temperature.
the temperature."
has 12 million lines of code.
都可能导致你的电脑崩溃。
can cause your computer to crash.
赚那么多钱。
makes so much money.
电脑可以找到自己的规则。
can find their own rules.
deciphering, step by step,
给计算机提供实例,
the computer examples
刚获胜的阿尔法围棋。
which recently was won by Google.
你会真的写下全部规则,
you would really write down all the rules,
超过一百万次的比赛,
residing Go champion.
the software engineer
已经真正成为可能——
where this has become really possible --
是关于机器学习的。
was about machine learning.
insignificant, don't read it,
were as big as a cockroach brain.
to really emulate
take advantage of the fact
much more data than people can.
看了上百万次比赛。
more than a million games.
研究一百万次比赛。
study a million games.
a hundred billion web pages.
a hundred billion web pages.
the computer can find rules
“如果他那么走,我要那么走,”
to, "If he does that, I will do that,"
looks like a winning pattern,
a winning pattern."
how you raise children.
给孩子创建每个细节的规则,
giving kids a rule for every contingency
那他们就麻烦大了。
and they have this big program.
他们失败、受挫,
they get slapped or spanked,
在学校里取得好成绩,
a good grade in school,
so much easier all of a sudden.
我们只要给计算机大量的数据。
We just give them lots of data.
自动驾驶汽车的影响
to the spectacular improvement
自动驾驶汽车的行驶过程,
into a spin-off called Voyage.
called deep learning
from Mountain View, California,
有133个交通信号灯。
and 133 traffic lights.
the Google self-driving car team.
谷歌自动驾驶团队。
世界上最好的软件工程师
the world's best software engineers
into the computer brain,
常常超越人类的操作能力。
that often surpasses human agility.
大约33英里,一个半小时。
about 33 miles, an hour and a half.
这个程序的左边这一大块,
of this program on the left,
电脑看到的卡车和轿车,
the computer sees as trucks and cars
在这里是主要输入,
image, which is the main input here,
交通信号灯。
other cars, traffic lights.
to do distance estimation.
in these kind of systems.
树木等障碍物。
and so on depicted by the laser.
都集中在相机图像上。
is centering on the camera image now.
精密传感器
sensors like radars and lasers
on the left thing, what is that?
for your adaptive cruise control,
how to regulate velocity
the cars in front of you are.
got an example, I think,
是如何发生的。
learning part takes place.
来谈谈这个话题。
向优达学城的学生们发起的挑战,
a challenge to Udacity students
自动驾驶“纳米”学位。
a self-driving car Nanodegree.
找到这辆车的驾驶方法?”
how to steer this car?"
to get the steering right.
“这是深度学习竞赛,
"It's a deep learning competition,
那样的软件公司,
like Google or Facebook,
六个月的时间。
at least six months of work.
就能解决问题简直太赞了。
大约100份学生交稿,
100 submissions from students,
drive on this imagery,
提供足够的数据,
to a computer now,
to comprehend the data,
of powerful applications
the other day about cancer.
CA:这个很酷。
CA: This is cool.
into what's happening
400,000 dollars a year,
成为一名优秀的皮肤科医生。
to be a good dermatologist.
它的机器学习版本。
the machine learning version of it.
机器学习算法的技术术语。
for these machine learning algorithms.
扬·勒丘恩发明的,
by a Facebook Fellow called Yann LeCun,
as the human brain.
but it emulates the same thing.
the visual input and extracts edges
more complicated edges
非常复杂的概念。
really complicated concepts.
cat faces and dog faces
at Stanford has shown is that
图片对它进行训练,
of skin conditions,
that this is the case,
that we presented to our network
25位认证的斯坦福级别皮肤医生,
Stanford-level dermatologists,
the performance classification accuracy
挺让人激动的。
That's a moving piece.
在“自然”杂志上发表了的
in "Nature" earlier this year
dermatologists images
以确保我们分类正确。
we had the correct classification.
一个合作人得到的照片。
by one of our collaborators.
显然是最好的三位之一,
one of the three best, apparently,
“这不是皮肤癌。”
"This is not skin cancer."
a second moment, where he said,
打开我们的软件,
and ran our piece of software,
信iPhone比信自己多一点,”
the iPhone a little bit more than myself,"
to get it biopsied.
我们第一次真正发现,
that we actually found,
真会有人长了黑色素瘤
would have gone unclassified,
有即时需求了,
for an app like this right now,
能自我检查的应用程序吗?
making an app that allows self-checking?
关于癌症应用程序的邮件,
about cancer apps,
10、15、20个黑色素瘤,
10, 15, 20 melanomas removed,
might be overlooked, like this one,
these days, I guess.
让人印象深刻的答案很容易。
and impress a TED audience.
事情就难得多。
something out that's ethical.
the assistance of a doctor
我们的数据还能保持正确,
and our data holds up,
我们或许可以采用这种技术,
to take this kind of technology
从未踏足过的地方。
doctors never, ever set foot.
学生军团打交道
with this army of Udacity students,
a different form of machine learning
群体智慧相结合。
with a form of crowd wisdom.
that could actually outperform
甚至是一个巨型公司?
even a vast company?
完全超乎我想象,
instances that blow my mind,
我们举办的这些比赛。
is these competitions that we run.
a self-driving car
to San Francisco on surface streets.
after seven years of Google work,
三个月就完成了这个任务。
and three months to do this.
an army of students
who use crowdsourcing.
人们用众包找程序漏洞,
where people do bug-finding crowdsourcing
in crowdsourcing.
在三个月内造出这辆车,
this car in three months,
who are never hired,
and I don't even know.
大概9000个答案。
maybe 9,000 answers.
这可能不太好。
which is maybe not the best thing to do.
教育的一部分,这很好。
of their education, too, which is nice.
惊人的深度学习成果。
to produce amazing deep learning results.
结合起来简直太棒了。
and great machine learning is amazing.
在TED2017的第一天就说,
the first day [of TED2017]
竟然是两个业余棋手,
turned out to be two amateur chess players
中等偏上的计算机程序,
mediocre-to-good, computer programs,
with one great chess player,
说的是同一想法的
you're talking about a much richer version
那些很棒的小组讨论,
the fantastic panels yesterday morning,
我们有时候
that we sometimes confuse
与这种霸主威胁混淆,
with this kind of overlord threat,
发展出意识了,对吧?
consciousness, right?
就是我的人工智能有意识了。
is for my AI to have consciousness.
with the dishwasher
我也不想要。
and I don't want them.
an augmentation of people.
of human smarts and machine smarts
与机器一样古老。
is as old as machines are.
place because it made steam engines
农具不能自己种植,
that couldn't farm by itself,
只是让我们变得更强大。
it made us stronger.
will make us much, much stronger
再继续探讨这个问题,
of this for some people,
你有一台计算机,
scary for people is when you have
rewrite its own code,
multiple copies of itself,
目标有没有实现或得到改进。
if a goal is achieved and improved.
在智力测验上表现更好。
on an intelligence test.
that's moderately good at that,
会发生类似失控效应,
some sort of runaway effect
on Thursday evening,
on Friday morning,
of computers and so forth,
what I heard you say.
我们确实有这样的情况:
we had exactly this thing:
the game against itself
is a rewriting of the rules.
absolutely no concern
这些都是非常单一领域的东西。
these are all very single-domain things.
that seemed nearly capable
and understand in the sense that we can,
patterns of meaning.
随着这个继续发展壮大,
as this broadens out,
kind of runaway effect?
划分界限的地方。
I draw the line, honestly.
我不想轻描淡写——
I don't want to downplay it --
目前我脑子里不会想这个,
the thing that's on my mind these days,
大改革是指另一回事。
is something else.
to the present date
基于单一的理念,
是大量的围棋比赛数据,
is because of massive numbers of Go plays,
也不能开飞机。
or fly a plane.
优达学城自动驾驶车
or the Udacity self-driving car
但做不了其他事。
and it can't do anything else.
特定领域的功能,
domain-specific function,
几乎没有进展,
on this thing called "general AI,"
“嘿,为我发明个狭义相对论
"Hey, invent for me special relativity
我想告诉大家我了解。
and I want to acknowledge them.
把所有重复性的事情解决掉,
"What if we can take anything repetitive
100 times as efficient?"
we all worked in agriculture
在办公室里工作,
皮肤科医生在做重复的工作,
doing repetitive things,
能够利用人工智能
of being able to take an AI,
把效率提高10倍或50倍。
as effective in these repetitive things.
一些人内心多少有些抵触,
a little terrifying to some people,
can do this repetitive thing
is the thing that's talked about
glorious aspects of what's possible.
是个大问题,
and it's a big issue,
by several guest speakers.
optimistic person,
back 300 years ago.
of continuous war,
软件工程师或电视主播。
or software engineer or TV anchor.
口袋里装着一个小蒸汽机,
with a little steam engine in his pocket,
然后你就可以做点别的了。”
as strong, so you can do something else."
there was no real stage,
with the cows in the stable,
concerned about it,
也能干这活儿了,我可怎么办呐?”
and what if the machine does this for me?"
承认过去的进步和好处,
past progress and the benefit of it,
电力或者医疗供应。
or electricity or medical supply.
这在300年前是不可能的。
which was impossible 300 years ago.
却并不基于相同的规则。
the same rules to the future.
首席执行官工作,
有90%是重复性的,
of my work is repetitive,
愚蠢、重复的电子邮件上。
on stupid, repetitive email.
找谁帮我摆脱这一点。
that helps me get rid of this.
are insanely creative;
more than anybody else.
你可以找酒店清洁工
I think you can go to your hotel maid
有创意的想法。
you find a creative idea.
将这种创造力转化为行动。
is to turn this creativity into action.
在一天内造出谷歌会怎样?
build Google in a day?
就发明出下一个Snapchat会怎样?
and invent the next Snapchat,
投入运行会怎样?
in my opinion.
great side effects.
and education and shelter
affordable to all of us,
与这一次有所不同,
that this time it's different
that we've used in the past
is that, not completely,
与计算机的那种创造力
different from the kind of creativity
一个AI人的坚定信念——
belief as an AI person --
我并没有看到
any real progress on creativity
大家也一定要意识到,
really important for people to realize,
如此有威胁性,
intelligence" is so threatening,
又加进一部电影,
tossing a movie in,
计算机变成我们的霸主——
the computer is our overlord,
do repetitive things.
重复性事件上。
entirely on the repetitive end.
我们已经变成了超人。
we've become superhuman.
the Atlantic in 11 hours.
shouting back to us.
我们正在打破物理规则。
We're breaking the rules of physics.
we're going to remember everything
in my early stages of Alzheimer's.
an IQ of 1,000 or more.
spelling classes for our kids,
我们将变得充满创意。
is that we can be super creative.
it's going to be painful,
of more than those jobs.
to just a new level of empowerment
60-100,000 years old, give or take --
in terms of invention,
it's a little bit older.
manufacturing, penicillin --
已经上升了,没有下降。
has gone up, not gone down, in my opinion.
1%被发明出来了。可以理解吧?
things have been invented yet. Right?
希望我会改变这一点。
Hopefully, I'll change this.
people laughed about. (Laughs)
秘密地研究飞行汽车?
Working secretly on flying cars.
implant in our brain
你一定会喜欢的。
once you have it, you'll love it.
we haven't invented yet
转移到另一个地点。
from one location to another.
that flight wouldn't exist,
比你跑步还快,
than you could run,
that you can't beam a person
and your brilliance.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Sebastian Thrun - Educator, entrepreneurSebastian Thrun is a passionate technologist who is constantly looking for new opportunities to make the world better for all of us.
Why you should listen
Sebastian Thrun is an educator, entrepreneur and troublemaker. After a long life as a professor at Stanford University, Thrun resigned from tenure to join Google. At Google, he founded Google X, home to self-driving cars and many other moonshot technologies. Thrun also founded Udacity, an online university with worldwide reach, and Kitty Hawk, a "flying car" company. He has authored 11 books, 400 papers, holds 3 doctorates and has won numerous awards.
Sebastian Thrun | Speaker | TED.com
Chris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading.
Why you should listen
Chris Anderson is the Curator of TED, a nonprofit devoted to sharing valuable ideas, primarily through the medium of 'TED Talks' -- short talks that are offered free online to a global audience.
Chris was born in a remote village in Pakistan in 1957. He spent his early years in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where his parents worked as medical missionaries, and he attended an American school in the Himalayas for his early education. After boarding school in Bath, England, he went on to Oxford University, graduating in 1978 with a degree in philosophy, politics and economics.
Chris then trained as a journalist, working in newspapers and radio, including two years producing a world news service in the Seychelles Islands.
Back in the UK in 1984, Chris was captivated by the personal computer revolution and became an editor at one of the UK's early computer magazines. A year later he founded Future Publishing with a $25,000 bank loan. The new company initially focused on specialist computer publications but eventually expanded into other areas such as cycling, music, video games, technology and design, doubling in size every year for seven years. In 1994, Chris moved to the United States where he built Imagine Media, publisher of Business 2.0 magazine and creator of the popular video game users website IGN. Chris eventually merged Imagine and Future, taking the combined entity public in London in 1999, under the Future name. At its peak, it published 150 magazines and websites and employed 2,000 people.
This success allowed Chris to create a private nonprofit organization, the Sapling Foundation, with the hope of finding new ways to tackle tough global issues through media, technology, entrepreneurship and, most of all, ideas. In 2001, the foundation acquired the TED Conference, then an annual meeting of luminaries in the fields of Technology, Entertainment and Design held in Monterey, California, and Chris left Future to work full time on TED.
He expanded the conference's remit to cover all topics, including science, business and key global issues, while adding a Fellows program, which now has some 300 alumni, and the TED Prize, which grants its recipients "one wish to change the world." The TED stage has become a place for thinkers and doers from all fields to share their ideas and their work, capturing imaginations, sparking conversation and encouraging discovery along the way.
In 2006, TED experimented with posting some of its talks on the Internet. Their viral success encouraged Chris to begin positioning the organization as a global media initiative devoted to 'ideas worth spreading,' part of a new era of information dissemination using the power of online video. In June 2015, the organization posted its 2,000th talk online. The talks are free to view, and they have been translated into more than 100 languages with the help of volunteers from around the world. Viewership has grown to approximately one billion views per year.
Continuing a strategy of 'radical openness,' in 2009 Chris introduced the TEDx initiative, allowing free licenses to local organizers who wished to organize their own TED-like events. More than 8,000 such events have been held, generating an archive of 60,000 TEDx talks. And three years later, the TED-Ed program was launched, offering free educational videos and tools to students and teachers.
Chris Anderson | Speaker | TED.com