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TED2003

Gregory Stock: To upgrade is human

グレゴリー・ストック: 進化こそが人類

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バイオテクノロジー倫理学者、グレゴリー・ストックによる予言めいたこの講演は2003年、クローン羊のドリーが剥製にされたほんの数日前のことでした。赤ん坊のカスタマイズなど、取り入れられたら人類の進化を加速するであろう新しく、問題視されている未来のテクノロジーについてお話しします。

- Author, thinker
Dr. Gregory Stock's levelheaded look at the hotpoints where tech and ethics connect (or short circuit) have made him a popular guest on TV and radio. He directs the Program on Science, Technology, and Society at UCLA. Full bio

The future of life, where the unraveling of our biology --
生命の未来 生物学は何を解明し
00:12
and bring up the lights a little bit. I don't have any slides.
我々をどこへ導くのでしょうか
00:16
I'm just going to talk --
スライドはありませんので照明を上げてください
00:18
about where that's likely to carry us.
私は喋るだけです
00:21
And you know, I saw all the visions
これまでのセッションを
00:23
of the first couple of sessions.
拝聴していました
00:27
It almost made me feel a little bit guilty about having an uplifting talk
未来を持ち上げるような話をするのは
00:29
about the future.
少し気が引けました
00:32
It felt wrong to do that in some way.
間違っている気がしました
00:34
And yet, I don't really think it is
ただそれでも
00:36
because when it comes down to it,
考えてみると
00:38
it's this larger trajectory that is really what is going to remain --
この時代について未来の人が思い出す時
00:40
what people in the future are going to remember about this period.
本当に残るのはこの大きな軌跡です
00:44
I want to talk to you a little bit about
バイオテクノロジーを排除したいという
00:48
why the visions of Jeremy Rivkins,
ジェレミー・リフキンや
00:51
who would like to ban these sorts of technologies,
あるいは廃棄したいという
00:55
or of the Bill Joys who would like to relinquish them,
ビル・ジョイらの語る未来が
00:58
are actually -- to follow those paths would be such a tragedy for us.
どれほどの悲劇か 少しお話ししたいと思います
01:02
I'm focusing on biology,
生物学 そして
01:07
the biological sciences.
バイオサイエンスに焦点を当ててお話しします
01:10
The reason I'm doing that is because those are going to be
なぜならこれらの領域は
01:12
the areas that are the most significant to us.
最も私たちに影響が大きいからです
01:15
The reason for that is really very simple.
その理由は明白です
01:19
It's because we're flesh and blood.
私たちが血肉でできているからです
01:21
We're biological creatures.
私たちが生物だからです
01:23
And what we can do with our biology
そして生物学が
01:25
is going to shape our future
もたらすことは
01:29
and that of our children and that of their children --
私たち そして子孫の未来をも形づくるのです
01:31
whether we gain control over aging,
老化を制御できるようになり
01:34
whether we learn to protect ourselves from Alzheimer's,
アルツハイマー病を防げるようになり
01:36
and heart disease, and cancer.
心臓病やガンも克服するでしょう
01:40
I think that Shakespeare really put it very nicely.
シェイクスピアは本当に見事に表現したと思います
01:42
And I'm actually going to use his words in the same order that he did.
言葉の並びは元のままでいきます
01:46
(Laughter)
(笑)
01:49
He said, "And so from hour to hour
「かくして人は
01:51
we ripe and ripe.
成熟し続け
01:54
And then from hour to hour we rot and rot.
同時に刻々と腐り続ける
01:57
And thereby hangs a tale."
これには少し謂われがある」
01:59
Life is short, you know.
人生は短いですよね
02:01
And we need to think about planning a little bit.
私たちは少し計画を立てねばなりません
02:03
We're all going to eventually, even in the developed world,
これだけ発展した世界においても
02:05
going to have to lose everything that we love.
私たちは最終的に愛するものを
全て失うことになります
02:10
When you're beginning to rot a little bit,
少し腐り始めると
02:13
all of the videos crammed into your head,
頭に詰め込んだ映像や
02:16
all of the extensions that extend your various powers,
いろいろな権力の基になる特権全てが
02:18
are going to being to seem a little secondary.
どうでもよくなります
02:22
And you know, I'm getting a little bit gray -- so is Ray Kurzweil,
私は白髪が生えてきました
02:26
so is Eric Drexler.
レイ・カーツワイルも
エリック・ドレクスラーも
02:30
This is where it's really central to our lives.
私たちが最も気にするのはここです
02:32
Now I know there's been a whole lot of hype
生物学を制御する力学に関して
02:35
about our power to control biology.
数多くの誇大広告が
打たれてきたことは知っています
02:37
You just have to look at the Human Genome Project.
ヒトゲノム計画を見たら分かるでしょう
02:40
It wasn't two years ago
ほんの二年前のことです
02:42
that everybody was talking about --
人々は騒ぎ立てました
02:44
we've found the Holy Grail of biology.
生物学の聖杯を見つけた
02:46
We're deciphering the code of codes.
私たちは暗号の暗号を解いている
02:48
We're reading the book of life.
生命の書を読んでいるのだと
02:50
It's a little bit reminiscent of 1969 when Neil Armstrong walked on the moon,
1969年 ニール・アームストロングの
月面歩行を思い出させます
02:53
and everybody was about to race out toward the stars.
皆が宇宙に向けて進行する勢いでした
02:57
And we've all seen "2001: A Space Odyssey."
「2001年宇宙の旅」は皆が観たでしょう
03:01
You know it's 2003, and there is no HAL.
2003年になりましたが ハル は存在しません
03:04
And there is no odyssey to our own moon, much less the moons of Jupiter.
木星の月はおろか地球の月へすら行けません
03:08
And we're still picking up pieces of the Challenger.
未だに空中分解したチャレンジャーの
破片を回収しているのです
03:12
So it's not surprising that some people would wonder
今から 30年後 40年後に
03:15
whether maybe 30 or 40 years from now,
この時代を振り返り
03:19
we'll look back at this instant in time,
ヒトゲノム計画などの
03:22
and all of the sort of talk about
時の話題にどれだけの意味があるか
03:24
the Human Genome Project,
回想したら
03:27
and what all this is going to mean to us --
とても些細なものだと
03:29
well, it will really mean precious little.
人々が考えるのも無理がないかもしれません
03:31
And I just want to say that that is absolutely not going to be the case.
そんなことには決してならないと私は言いたい
03:35
Because when we talk about our genetics and our biology,
私たちの遺伝子や生体の
03:39
and modifying and altering and adjusting these things,
変更 変容 調節といった話題は
03:44
we're talking about changing ourselves.
私たち自身を改変する話なのです
03:46
And this is very critical stuff.
極めて重要な話題です
03:49
If you have any doubts about how technology affects our lives,
テクノロジーが生活に与える
影響に疑問があるならば
03:51
you just have to go to any major city.
世界の主だった都市を見れば分かります
03:55
This is not the stomping ground
更新世時代の先祖の
03:57
of our Pleistocene ancestors.
縄張りではありません
03:59
What's happening is we're taking this technology --
私たちが何をしているかというと
04:01
it's becoming more precise, more potent --
より正確で効力があるテクノロジーに
04:04
and we're turning it back upon ourselves.
背を向けているのです
04:06
Before it's all done
ですがそうするより前に
04:09
we are going to alter ourselves
周りの世界を変えてきたように
04:11
every bit as much as we have changed the world around us.
私たち自身も変わるでしょう
04:13
It's going to happen a lot sooner
人々が想像する以上に
04:16
than people imagine.
早く起こるでしょう
04:18
On the way there it's going to
その過程で確実に
04:20
completely revolutionize medicine and health care; that's obvious.
医学や医療の革命が起こるでしょう
04:23
It's going to change the way we have children.
新たな命の誕生も変わります
04:26
It's going to change the way we manage
私たちの感情の抑制や
04:28
and alter our emotions.
転換の仕方も変わります
04:30
It's going to probably change the human lifespan.
寿命もおそらく変わるでしょう
04:32
It will really make us question
人間であるとは何かを
04:34
what it is to be a human being.
真剣に問われることになります
04:36
The larger context of this is that are
現在このことに関連した
04:40
two unprecedented revolutions that are going on today.
前例の無い革命が二つ起こっています
04:42
The first of them is the obvious one,
一つは明らかです
04:48
the silicon revolution,
シリコン革命です
04:50
which you all are very, very familiar with.
十分馴染みがあるでしょう
04:52
It's changing our lives in so many ways,
数々の方法で私たちの生活を変え
04:55
and it will continue to do that.
今後もそれは続いて行くでしょう
04:57
What the essence of that is, is that we're taking
ここで重要なのは
04:59
the sand at our feet, the inert silicon at our feet,
私たちの足元にある砂―
何の変哲もないシリコンを拾い上げ
05:01
and we're breathing a level of complexity into it
そこに生命に匹敵するほどの
05:05
that rivals that of life itself,
あるいはそれ以上の複雑さを
05:07
and may even surpass it.
吹き込んでいることです
05:09
As an outgrowth of that, as a child of that revolution,
となるとその革命の当然の帰結として
05:12
is the revolution in biology.
生物学でも革命が起きます
05:15
The genomics revolution,
ゲノム革命を始め
05:17
proteomics, metabolomics, all of these "omics"
プロテオミクス メタボロミクス
「ミクス」は
05:19
that sound so terrific on grants and on business plans.
研究助成金や事業企画書向きの言葉です
05:22
What we're doing is we are
何をしているかというと
05:25
seizing control of our evolutionary future.
進化の未来を制御しようとしているのです
05:30
I mean we're essentially using technology
つまりテクノロジーを使い
05:33
to just jam evolution into fast-forward.
進化を早送りさせようとしています
05:35
It's not at all clear where it's going to take us.
結果どうなるかは未だ不透明です
05:38
But in five to ten years we're going to start see
ですが五年から十年の間に
05:41
some very profound changes.
重大な変化が見え始めるでしょう
05:44
The most immediate changes that we'll see
直近では医学に変化が
05:46
are things like in medicine.
見られるようになるでしょう
05:48
There is going to be a big shift towards preventative medicine
個人個人が持つリスク因子が
05:50
as we start to be able to identify
同定できるようになるにつれ
05:53
all of the risk factors that we have as individuals.
予防薬の開発で大きな変化が見られるでしょう
05:55
But who is going to pay for all this?
しかし誰がお金を出すのでしょう?
05:58
And how are we going to understand all this complex information?
どのようにして複雑な情報を把握しましょう?
06:00
That is going to be the IT challenge
こういった情報のやりとりは
06:04
of the next generation, is communicating all this information.
次世代における IT の課題です
06:07
There's pharmacogenomics, the combination of pharmacology
薬理学と遺伝子学を扱う
06:11
and genetics:
薬理ゲノミクスという分野があります
06:13
tailoring drugs to our individual constitutions
先ほどファンが触れていた
06:16
that Juan talked about a little bit earlier.
各個人向けに薬を調整する分野です
06:18
That's going to have amazing impacts.
凄まじい影響を与えるでしょう
06:21
And it's going to be used for diet as well,
また食事療法やサプリメントといった
06:24
and nutritional supplements and such.
用途にも利用されるでしょう
06:27
But it's going to have a big impact because
ただし 影響が大きいのは
06:29
we're going to have niche drugs.
ニッチな薬が得られることです
06:31
And we aren't going to be able to support
今日 画期的な新薬を創るために組んでいる
06:33
the kinds of expenses that we have to create blockbuster drugs today.
予算では賄うことができなくなるでしょう
06:36
The approval process is going to fall apart, actually.
実際のところ認可プロセスは崩壊するでしょう
06:39
It's too slow.
遅すぎます
06:44
It's too risk-averse.
リスク回避し過ぎるのです
06:46
And it is really not suited for the future
私たちが向かっている未来には
06:48
that we're moving into.
適していません
06:51
Another thing is that we're just going to have to deal with this knowledge.
もう一つは この知識に向き合う必要があることです
06:53
It's really wonderful when we hear,
例えばこんな素晴らしい発言があるでしょう
06:55
"Oh, 99.9 percent of the letters in the code are the same.
「遺伝子コードの 99.9% が一致しています
06:57
We're all identical to each other. Isn't it wonderful?"
私たちは一緒なのですね
これって凄くありませんか?」
07:02
And look around you and know
一方で周りを見渡して分かるのは
07:06
that what we really care about is
私たちが本当に気にしているのは
07:08
that little bit of difference.
そのわずかな違いということです
07:10
We look the same to a visitor from another planet, maybe,
宇宙人から見ると
私たちは同じに見えるでしょうが
07:12
but not to each other
私たち同士では違って見えます
07:15
because we compete with each other all time.
それは私たちが常に競い合っているからです
07:17
And we're going to have to come to grips with the fact
事実を受け止めねばなりません
07:19
that there are differences between us as individuals that we will know about,
今後明らかにされていく各個人の違いや
07:22
and between subpopulations of humans as well.
人類の派生種ごとの違いをです
07:25
To deny that that's the case is not a very good start on that.
それを否定しては良いスタートは切れません
07:29
A generation or so away
一世代かそこらで
07:33
there are going to be even more profound things that are going to happen.
更に深刻な変化が訪れることになるでしょう
07:36
That's when we're going to begin to use this knowledge to modify ourselves.
それは知識を用いて
私たち自身を改変させ始めることです
07:39
Now I don't mean extra gills or something --
エラを生やすとか言う話ではありません
07:43
something we care about, like aging.
老化などもっと私たちに関係あることです
07:46
What if we could unravel aging and understand it --
老化の解明と理解ができたとしたら?
07:48
begin to retard the process or even reverse it?
老化プロセスを遅らせたり逆行させられたら?
07:52
It would change absolutely everything.
根本的に全てが変わるでしょう
07:55
And it's obvious to anyone,
誰の目にも明らかです
07:57
that if we can do this, we absolutely will do this,
それが可能なら確実に実行します
07:59
whatever the consequences are.
その結果がどうなろうともです
08:02
The second is modifying our emotions.
二つ目は感情を変化させることについてです
08:04
I mean Ritalin, Viagra,
リタリンやバイアグラ
08:08
things of that sort, Prozac.
プロザックのことです
08:12
You know, this is just clumsy little baby steps.
こんなのは児戯に等しいです
08:14
What if you could take a little
もし少量の調合剤を摂取して
08:16
concoction of pharmaceuticals
唯々自分でいられれば良いという
08:19
that would make you feel really contented,
満足感が得られたとしたら
08:22
just happy to be you.
どうでしょう?
08:25
Are you going to be able to resist that if it doesn't have any overt side effects?
顕性の副作用がないとしたら
誘惑に勝てるでしょうか?
08:27
Probably not.
おそらく勝てないでしょう
08:30
And if you don't, who are you going to be?
勝てないとしたら あなたはいったい誰なのでしょう?
08:32
Why do you do what you do?
なぜ自分は自分がしてる事をするのか?
08:34
We're sort of circumventing evolutionary programs that guide our behavior.
自分たちの行動を先導する
進化プログラムを避けるようなものです
08:36
It's going to be very challenging to deal with.
対処するのはとても難しいでしょう
08:39
The third area is reproduction.
三つ目は生殖です
08:41
The idea that we're going to chose our children's genes,
遺伝子が解明されるにつれて 子どもの
08:45
as we begin to understand what genes say about who we are.
遺伝子を選ぶといったアイデアが出てきます
08:48
That's the focus of my book "Redesigning Humans,"
私の著書「それでもヒトは人体を改変する」で
08:52
where I talk about the kinds of choices we'll make,
私たちはどのような選択をしていくか
08:54
and the challenges it's going to present to society.
社会にどんな問題を提示するかに触れています
08:56
There are three obvious ways of doing this.
生殖に関して 三つ方法があります
08:59
The first is cloning.
一つはクローンです
09:01
It didn't happen.
実現しませんでした
09:03
It's a total media circus.
メディアが騒ぎ立てただけです
09:05
It will happen in five to 10 years.
五年から十年で実現するでしょうが
09:07
And when it does it's not going to be that big a deal.
もはやビッグニュースにはならないでしょう
09:09
The birth of a delayed identical twin
時間差一卵性双生児が
09:12
is not going to shake western civilization.
西洋文明に衝撃を与えることはないでしょう
09:14
But there are more important things that are already occurring:
既に実施されていて もっと重要なものがあります
09:19
embryo screening.
胚スクリーニングです
09:22
You take a six to eight cell embryo,
6から 8個ほどの胚細胞を取って
09:24
you tease out one of the cells, you run a genetic test on that cell,
一つを遺伝子テストにかけ
09:27
and depending on the results of that test
その結果次第で
09:30
you either implant that embryo or you discard it.
胚を移植あるいは破棄します
09:32
It's already done to avoid rare diseases today.
希少疾病を防ぐために既に実施されています
09:35
And pretty soon it's going to be possible
近い内 この方法で実質的に
09:38
to avoid virtually all genetic diseases in that way.
全ての遺伝病を防げるようになるでしょう
09:41
As that becomes possible
そうなるにつれ
09:45
this is going to move from something that is used by those who
不妊問題を抱えている人
09:48
have infertility problems and are already doing in vitro fertilization,
体外受精をしている人
09:51
to the wealthy who want to protect their children,
子どもを守りたい裕福層だけが
利用していた技術を
09:54
to just about everybody else.
誰もが利用するようになるでしょう
09:57
And in that process that's going to morph
その過程で技術は
09:59
from being just for diseases,
病気の治療だけでなく
10:01
to being for lesser vulnerabilities,
より軽度の問題
10:03
like risk of manic depression or something,
躁うつ病や
10:05
to picking personalities,
攻撃的な人格
10:08
temperaments, traits, these sorts of things.
気性 特性などにも利用されるでしょう
10:11
Of course there is going to be genetic engineering.
遺伝子工学も当然利用されます
10:14
Directly going in -- it's a little bit further away, but not that far away --
実現はそう遠くないでしょう
10:17
going in and altering the genes in the first cell in an embryo.
肺細胞の遺伝子を調べ調節するようになります
10:20
The way I suspect it will happen
私が想定している方法は
10:25
is using artificial chromosomes
人工染色体の追加です
10:28
and extra chromosomes, so we go from 46
私たちは 46の染色体を持っていますが
10:30
to 47 or 48.
それを 47, 48にします
10:33
And one that is not heritable
しかも遺伝されないものです
10:35
because who would want to pass on to their children
親が利用した 25年前の技術で作られた
10:37
the archaic enhancement modules
古い機能拡張版を
10:40
that they got 25 years earlier from their parents?
子どもに継がせたいわけないでしょう
10:43
It's a joke; of course they wouldn't want to do that.
とんだ冗談です
10:46
They'll want the new release.
みんな最新リリースを欲しがります
10:49
Those kinds of loose analogies with
コンピュータやプログラムでも見られる
10:51
(Laughter)
(笑)
10:54
computers, and with programming,
この関係は
10:55
are actually much deeper than that.
実際にはより深刻なものです
10:57
They are really going to come to operate in this realm.
本当に現実の物となります
11:00
Now not everything that can be done should be done.
しかしできる物はなんでもするべきでも
11:03
And it won't be done.
あるいはされるわけでもありません
11:06
But when something is feasible in thousands of
ただし世界中の何千もの研究室で
11:08
laboratories all over the world,
先ほど触れたテクノロジー等が
11:10
which is going to be the case with these technologies,
実現可能になり
11:12
when there are large numbers of people who see them as beneficial,
大勢の人が既に思っているとおり
11:14
which is already the case,
有益だとみなし
11:16
and when they're almost impossible to police,
さらに使用を制限するのが困難であれば
11:18
it's not a question of if this is going to happen,
問題はもはや使うかどうかではなく
11:21
it's when and where and how it's going to happen.
いつ どこで いかにしてなのです
11:23
Humanity is going to go down this path.
人類はこの道を進んでいきます
11:25
And it's going to do so for two reasons.
その理由は二つです
11:29
The first is that all these technologies
第一には これらの技術は全て
11:31
are just a spin-off of mainstream medical research
皆が望んでいる医学研究の主流から
11:34
that everybody wants to see happen.
派生したものです
11:36
It is being funded very very --
多額の資金が
11:38
in a big way.
投入されています
11:41
The second is, we're human.
第二に 私たちは人間だからです
11:43
That's what we do.
こういうことをするのが人間なのです
11:45
We try and use our technology to
テクノロジーを試し 利用し
11:47
improve our lives in one way or another.
何とかして生活を改善していこうとします
11:49
To imagine that we're not going to use these technologies
せっかく利用できるようになったものを
11:51
when they become available,
利用しないということは
11:54
is as much a denial of who we are
人間の自己否定や
11:56
as to imagine
テクノロジーの
11:58
that we'll use these technologies and not fret
恩恵や問題を
12:00
and worry about it a great deal.
考えないことに等しいです
12:02
The lines are going to blur. And they already are
様々な境界線が曖昧になります
既になりつつあるのは
12:05
between therapy and enhancement,
療法と能力増強の間
12:08
between treatment and prevention,
治療と予防の間
12:10
between need and desire.
必要と欲望の間です
12:12
That's really the central one, I believe.
特に最後は問題の核だと私は考えます
12:15
People can try and ban these things.
人々はテクノロジーを盲目的に
12:18
They undoubtedly will. They have.
否定できますし 事実そうしてきました
12:20
But ultimately all this is going to do
しかし結局 そうしても単に
12:22
is just shift development elsewhere.
別の分野の発展を促すだけです
12:24
It's going to drive these things from view.
目を逸らしただけに過ぎません
12:27
It's going to reserve the technology for the wealthy
それはテクノロジーを裕福層に
12:29
because they are in the best position
占有させることになります
12:31
to circumvent any of these sorts of laws.
彼らは抜け道を探すのが得意だからです
12:33
And it's going to deny us
またテクノロジーの使い方を
12:36
the information that we need to make wise decisions
判断するために必要な情報を
12:38
about how to use these technologies.
入手できなくなる恐れがあります
12:40
So, sure, we need to debate these things.
ですから 私たちは議論する必要があります
12:43
And I think it's wonderful that we do.
また議論することは素晴らしいですが
12:45
But we shouldn't kid ourselves
ただしコンセンサスに至れると
12:47
and think that we're going to reach a consensus about these things.
甘く考えてはなりません
12:50
That is simply not going to happen.
至ることはありません
12:53
They touch us too deeply.
テクノロジーは密接過ぎます
12:55
And they depend too much upon history, upon philosophy,
また 歴史 哲学 宗教 文化
そして政治に強く左右されます
12:57
upon religion, upon culture, upon politics.
また 歴史 哲学 宗教 文化
そして政治に強く左右されます
13:00
Some people are going to see this
こういったことを
13:03
as an abomination,
最低だ ひどいことだと
13:06
as the worst thing, as just awful.
忌み嫌う人もいるでしょう
13:08
Other people are going to say, "This is great.
一方で 素晴らしい
13:11
This is the flowering of human endeavor."
人類の努力の成果だと喜ぶ人もいるでしょう
13:14
The one thing though that is really dangerous
この類いのテクノロジーで
13:18
about these sorts of technologies,
一つ 非常に危険なことは
13:21
is that it's easy to become seduced by them.
誘惑されやすいということです
13:24
And to focus too much on all
高度なテクノロジーがもたらすであろう
13:28
the high-technology possibilities that exist.
可能性ばかりに目を向けてもいけません
13:30
And to lose touch
通常の人体の性質や自身の健康を
13:33
with the basic rhythms of our biology and our health.
忘れてはいけません
13:36
There are too many people that think that high-technology medicine
高度なテクノロジーに裏打ちされた医学が
13:38
is going to keep them, save them,
過食 ファストフードの取り過ぎ
13:41
from overeating,
運動不足などの問題を
13:43
from eating a lot of fast foods,
解消してくれると
13:45
from not getting any exercise.
考える人が多すぎます
13:47
It's not going to happen.
そういうものではありません
13:49
In the midst of all this amazing technology,
多くの驚くべきテクノロジーの最中
13:51
and all these things that are occurring, it's really interesting
ある種の反革命が起こっていることは
13:53
because there is sort of a counter-revolution that is going on:
非常に面白いです
13:56
a resurgence of interest in remedies from the past,
機能性食品の分野で
13:59
in nutraceuticals, in all of these sorts of things
過去の治療法が再び脚光を浴び
14:04
that some people, in the pharmaceutical industry particularly,
特に製薬業界の人々はこの動きを
14:07
like to brand as non-science.
非科学的だと断定しています
14:10
But this whole effort is generated,
しかしこのような成果も
14:12
is driven, by IT as well
IT が一役買っているのです
14:15
because that is how we're gathering all this information,
私たちは IT を利用して
14:18
and linking it, and integrating it together.
情報収集 関連づけや統合を行っています
14:21
There is a lot in this rich biota that is going to serve us well.
豊かな生物相から私たちが
得ているものは大きいです
14:23
And that's where about half of our drugs come.
薬の半分はそこから来ています
14:28
So we shouldn't dismiss this
無視してはいけません
14:30
because it's an enormous opportunity to use
なぜなら今こそ
14:32
these sorts of results,
過去一千年 私たちの健康に影響を
14:34
or these random loose trials from the last thousand years
与え続けてきた様々なものを活用する
14:37
about what has impacts on our health.
絶好の機会なのです
14:40
And to use our advanced technologies
進歩したテクノロジーで
14:42
to pull out what is beneficial from this
雑多な情報の海から
14:44
sea of noise, basically.
有益なものを洗い出しましょう
14:46
In fact this isn't just abstract.
ただの抽象論ではありません
14:49
I just formed a biotechnology company
私はバイオテクノロジー会社を設立し
14:52
that is using
IT で昔の情報を整理し
14:54
this sort of an approach to develop
アルツハイマー病や老化による病気の
14:56
therapeutics for Alzheimer's and other diseases of aging,
治療法を開発しており
14:58
and we're making some real progress.
確かな成果が上がってきています
15:01
So here we are.
ここが私たちの今いる場所です
15:03
It's the beginning of a new millennium.
新たな千年紀の始まりです
15:05
If you look forward,
この先の人々は
15:08
I mean future humans,
つまり未来の人間は
15:10
far before the end of this millennium,
この千年紀が終わるずっと前
今から数百年もすれば
15:12
in a few hundred years, they are going to look back at this moment.
この時代を振り返るでしょう
15:15
And from the beginning of today's sessions
本日これまでの講演を総合すると
15:17
you'd think that they're going to see this as this horrible
未来の人は 今日を
15:20
difficult, painful period
なんて困難で辛い時代だったのだろうと
15:23
that we struggled through.
振り返るかも知れません
15:25
And I don't think that's what's going to happen.
でも私はそうは思いません
15:27
They're going to do like everybody does. They are going to forget about all that stuff.
時代が変わっても人は変わりません
15:30
And they are actually going to romanticize this moment in time.
辛いことは忘れ この時を美化するでしょう
15:34
They are going to think about it
彼らの生命 社会
15:37
as this glorious instant
そして未来の
15:39
when we laid down
土台を築き上げた
15:41
the very foundations of their lives,
栄光の時代だと
15:43
of their society, of their future.
未来の人は考えるでしょう
15:46
You know it's a little bit like a birth.
生命の誕生に似たものです
15:48
Where there is this bloody, awful mess happens.
血にまみれた様々なことが起きるのです
15:52
And then what comes out of it? New life.
そこからできるのは? 新たな生命です
15:55
Actually as was pointed out earlier,
前に指摘されていましたが
15:59
we forget about all the struggle there was in getting there.
到達するための困難は忘れ去られるのです
16:02
So to me,
私にしてみれば
16:05
it's clear that one of the foundations of that future
未来の土台の一つが
16:09
is going to be the reworking of our biology.
生物学の再構築であることは明白です
16:11
It's going to come gradually at first. It's going to pick up speed.
初めは遅く 次第にスピードは上がっていくでしょう
16:15
We're going to make lots of errors.
間違いをたくさん犯すでしょう
16:17
That's the way these things work.
そういうものです
16:19
To me it's an incredible privilege
私にとってこの時代に生きて
16:21
to be alive now
進歩を目の当たりにできることは
16:24
and to be able to witness this thing.
とてつもなく光栄なことです
16:26
It is something that is a unique instant
全生命の歴史にとって
16:29
in the history of all of life.
特別な時代なのです
16:31
It will always be remembered.
ずっと歴史に残るでしょう
16:34
And what's extraordinary is that
何が凄いかと言えば
16:36
we're not just observing this,
私たちはただ観察するだけでなく
16:38
we are the architects of this.
それを創造しているのです
16:40
I think that we should be proud of it.
誇りに思うべきです
16:42
What is so difficult and challenging
ここで難しく辛いのは
16:44
is that we are also the objects of these changes.
私たち自身が改変の対象でもあるということです
16:47
It's our health, it's our lives, it's our future, it's our children.
私たちの健康 生活 未来
子どもの未来が変わるのです
16:50
And that is why they are so very troubling to so many people
だからこそ多くの人が
16:53
who would pull back in fear.
恐れ 一歩下がってしまうのでしょう
16:57
I think that our choice
この生命の選択において
17:00
in the choice of life,
私たちの選択肢は
17:03
is not whether we're going to go down this path.
この道を進むかどうかではありません
17:05
We are, definitely.
間違いなく進んでいるのです
17:08
It's how we hold it in our hearts.
私たちがこれをどのように
17:10
It's how we look at it.
受け止めていくかなのです
17:13
I think Thucydides really spoke to us very clearly
紀元前 430年に トゥキディディスは
17:15
in 430 B.C. He put it nicely.
上手いことを言いました
17:18
Again, I'll use the words in the same order he did.
彼の言葉そのままに引用します
17:22
"The bravest are surely those
「勇敢な者とは
17:25
who have the clearest vision of what is before them,
目の前の栄誉も危険も等しく
17:29
both glory and danger alike.
明瞭に見渡すことができ
17:32
And yet notwithstanding, they go out and they meet it."
その上で それらに立ち向かうことのできる者である」
17:35
Thank you.
ありがとうございました
17:39
(Applause)
(拍手)
17:41
Translated by Keiichi Kudo
Reviewed by Akira Kan

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About the speaker:

Gregory Stock - Author, thinker
Dr. Gregory Stock's levelheaded look at the hotpoints where tech and ethics connect (or short circuit) have made him a popular guest on TV and radio. He directs the Program on Science, Technology, and Society at UCLA.

Why you should listen

Bestselling author and lecturer Gregory Stock examines the evolutionary significance of technological progress. His 1993 book, Metaman, looks (optimistically) toward a future where the symbiotic relationship between human culture and technology increasingly resembles a "superorganism" that can respond, as a whole, to crises like global warming. 2003's Redesigning Humans poses the alluring -- and sometimes frightening -- possibility that human biology will soon become customizable: no mere question of availability, but a matter of personal choice.

Stock's other work includes Engineering the Human Germline, which looks at the implications of controlled evolution, and a set of perpetually-bestselling tabletop conversation-starters, the flagship of which is The Book of Questions.

More profile about the speaker
Gregory Stock | Speaker | TED.com