TED@IBM
Tapiwa Chiwewe: You don't have to be an expert to solve big problems
Tapiwa Chiwewe: 你无需成为一名专家才能解决大问题
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某天在约翰内斯堡开车的时候，Tapiwa Chiwewe注意到整个城市被雾霾笼罩。他关注且好奇这一现象，但他并非环保领域的专家——随后他做了调研，发现2012年全球约14%的死亡率是由于周边大气污染所造成的。当他了解到这一信息后，他感到自己有必要来做些什么，他和同事一起开发了揭示污染趋势的平台，帮助城市规划者做出更好的决定。“有时只是一个新颖的角度，一些新的技能组合，就可以实现一些显著的改变。”Chiwewe如是说，“但你需要勇敢去尝试。”
Tapiwa Chiwewe - AI researcher
Tapiwa Chiwewe, PhD, manages the advanced and applied artificial intelligence group at IBM Research – Africa, which uses artificial intelligence to develop solutions for some of Africa's grand challenges whilst making scientific advances. Full bio
Tapiwa Chiwewe, PhD, manages the advanced and applied artificial intelligence group at IBM Research – Africa, which uses artificial intelligence to develop solutions for some of Africa's grand challenges whilst making scientific advances. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
One winter morning, a couple of years ago,
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几年前的一个冬天早晨，
在南非约翰内斯堡，我开车去上班时
00:16
I was driving to work
in Johannesburg, South Africa,
in Johannesburg, South Africa,
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00:19
and noticed a haze hanging over the city.
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发现城市被雾霾笼罩。
00:22
I make that drive on most days,
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我几乎每天都会开车经过那儿，
00:25
so it was unusual
that I hadn't noticed this before.
that I hadn't noticed this before.
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但这次很不寻常，
以前我从没见过这样的景象。
以前我从没见过这样的景象。
00:28
Johannesburg is known
for its distinctive skyline,
for its distinctive skyline,
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约翰内斯堡以它别具特色的
美丽天际线闻名，
美丽天际线闻名，
但那天早上却几乎看不到。
00:31
which I could barely see that morning.
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00:34
It didn't take long for me to realize
that I was looking at an enormous cloud
that I was looking at an enormous cloud
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很快我意识到，我看到的正是
由空气污染引起的
由空气污染引起的
严重的雾霾。
00:38
of air pollution.
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00:40
The contrast between
the scenic environment I knew
the scenic environment I knew
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我旧日所熟知的那个
优美环境与此刻雾霾笼罩的
优美环境与此刻雾霾笼罩的
天际线之间的对比，
00:44
and this smog-covered skyline
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在我心里翻涌不息。
00:46
stirred up something within me.
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00:49
I was appalled by the possibility
of this city of bright and vivid sunsets
of this city of bright and vivid sunsets
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我担心很有可能
曾经色彩多变的日落美景
曾经色彩多变的日落美景
将被阴暗的雾霾所吞噬。
00:54
being overrun by a dull haze.
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00:57
At that moment, I felt an urge
to do something about it,
to do something about it,
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在那一刻，我感到一阵强烈的冲动，
想要去做些什么，
想要去做些什么，
但我并不知道该做些什么。
01:01
but I didn't know what.
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01:03
All I knew was
I couldn't just stand idly by.
I couldn't just stand idly by.
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我所知道的只是
我不能就这样袖手旁观。
我不能就这样袖手旁观。
01:07
The main challenge was,
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最大的挑战在于，
我并不了解环境科学。
01:09
I didn't know much
about environmental science
about environmental science
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空气质量管理，
01:13
air-quality management
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或是大气化学。
01:15
or atmospheric chemistry.
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01:17
I am a computer engineer,
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我是一名电脑工程师，
而且我非常确定，我并不能
靠编码来解决大气污染问题。
靠编码来解决大气污染问题。
01:19
and I was pretty sure I couldn't code
my way out of this air pollution problem.
my way out of this air pollution problem.
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01:23
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
我将以什么身份来解决这个问题？
01:24
Who was I to do anything about this issue?
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01:27
I was but a citizen.
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我不过是个市井小民。
01:31
In the following years,
I learned a very important lesson,
I learned a very important lesson,
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在接下来的几年里，
我学到了很重要的一课，
我学到了很重要的一课，
如果我们想要实现更好的未来，
我们都应该把这一课铭记在心。
我们都应该把这一课铭记在心。
01:35
a lesson we all need to take to heart
if we are to work towards a better future.
if we are to work towards a better future.
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01:40
Even if you're not an expert
in a particular domain,
in a particular domain,
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即使你并非某一特殊领域的专家，
01:44
your outside expertise may hold the key
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你的专业技能也可能蕴含了
解决那一领域问题的方法。
01:47
to solving big problems
within that domain.
within that domain.
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01:50
Sometimes the unique perspective you have
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有时候，你所持有的独特视角
01:53
can result in unconventional thinking
that can move the needle,
that can move the needle,
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可以激发出非常规的
思维从而左右局势，
思维从而左右局势，
但你需要大胆去尝试。
01:57
but you need to be bold enough to try.
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02:01
That's the only way you'll ever know.
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唯有如此你才能够知晓结果。
02:04
What I knew back then
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当时我所知道的是，
02:06
was that if I was even going
to try to make a difference,
to try to make a difference,
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如果我想要尝试去改变，
我必须先对污染有足够了解，
02:10
I had to get smart
about air pollution first,
about air pollution first,
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02:13
and so I became a student again.
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所以我又做回了一名学生。
02:17
I did a bit of basic research
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我做了一些基础研究，
02:19
and soon learned that air pollution
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很快了解到大气污染
02:21
is the world's biggest
environmental health risk.
environmental health risk.
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是世界上最大的环境健康风险。
02:25
Data from the World Health Organization
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世界卫生组织的数据显示
02:28
shows that almost 14 percent
of all deaths worldwide in 2012
of all deaths worldwide in 2012
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在2012年，全世界
几乎14%的死亡事件
几乎14%的死亡事件
都是由家庭及周边的
大气污染造成，
大气污染造成，
02:33
were attributable to household
and ambient air pollution,
and ambient air pollution,
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02:37
with most occurring
in low- and middle-income countries.
in low- and middle-income countries.
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在中低端收入国家尤为常见。
02:41
Ambient air pollution alone
causes more deaths each year
causes more deaths each year
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大气污染每年所造成的
死亡率要高于
死亡率要高于
疟疾和艾滋病。
02:45
than malaria and HIV/AIDS.
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02:48
In Africa, premature deaths
from unsafe sanitation
from unsafe sanitation
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在非洲，不安全的
卫生条件造成的早逝，
卫生条件造成的早逝，
或孩童的营养不良造成的死亡，
02:52
or childhood malnutrition
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02:53
pale in comparison
to deaths due to air pollution,
to deaths due to air pollution,
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在大气污染面前显得苍白无力，
02:57
and it comes at a huge economic cost:
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同时它还带来了巨大的经济成本：
据经济合作与发展组织统计，
03:00
over 400 billion US dollars as of 2013,
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2013年有关方面的支出
超过了4000亿美元。
超过了4000亿美元。
03:04
according to a study by the Organisation
for Economic Cooperation and Development.
for Economic Cooperation and Development.
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03:09
Now, in my work,
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在我的工作中，
我探寻着人工智能的
科技前沿成果，
科技前沿成果，
03:12
I explore new frontiers
for artificial intelligence,
for artificial intelligence,
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包括人类和机器的共生关系，
03:17
where the symbiotic relationship
between man and machine
between man and machine
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找到有益的立足点
并帮我们做出更好的决定。
并帮我们做出更好的决定。
03:20
can find a beneficial footing
and help us to make better decisions.
and help us to make better decisions.
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03:25
As I thought about
the air pollution problem,
the air pollution problem,
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当我再想到大气污染问题时，
03:28
it became clear that we needed
to find a way to make better decisions
to find a way to make better decisions
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就如何治理大气污染这一问题，
事情变得明朗起来，
事情变得明朗起来，
我们需要寻找更好的方法
做出更好的决定
做出更好的决定
03:32
about how we manage air pollution,
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03:34
and given the scale of the problem,
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考虑到问题很庞大，
协同合作是非常有必要的。
03:36
it was necessary to do it
in a collaborative way.
in a collaborative way.
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03:40
So I decided I'd better get to know
some people working within the field.
some people working within the field.
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所以我决定去认识一些
在这一领域工作的人。
在这一领域工作的人。
03:45
I started to speak to officials
from the City of Johannesburg
from the City of Johannesburg
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我开始与约翰内斯堡
以及其他周边城市的官员对话，
03:48
and other surrounding cities,
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03:50
and I engaged the local
scientific community,
scientific community,
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我也加入了本地的科学社区，
我还打了一些电话给
完全陌生却相关的人们。
完全陌生却相关的人们。
03:53
and I also made a few cold calls.
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03:57
The process of engagement I embarked upon
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我着手介入的这些经历
帮助我更深刻地了解了这一问题。
03:59
helped me to develop
a deeper understanding of the problem.
a deeper understanding of the problem.
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04:03
It also helped me to avoid the trap
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也帮助我避免了
我这一行的人尝试创新时
我这一行的人尝试创新时
04:05
people in my profession sometimes
fall into when trying to innovate,
fall into when trying to innovate,
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有时会掉进的陷阱：
在尚未真正掌握问题之前，
04:09
where we are quick to apply a technology
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04:11
before we've firmly grasped
the problem at hand.
the problem at hand.
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快速采用一项技术。
04:15
I began to develop an idea
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我开始思考，
我能做些什么来改善这种状况？
04:17
about what I could do
to improve the situation.
to improve the situation.
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04:20
I started by simply asking myself
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我开始问我自己，
04:23
how I could bring together
in some meaningful way
in some meaningful way
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该如何有效融合
我在软件工程和人工智能
方面的知识技能
方面的知识技能
04:25
my skills in software engineering
and artificial intelligence
and artificial intelligence
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以及我所联系的人们的专业技能。
04:29
and the expertise of the people
I'd reached out to.
I'd reached out to.
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04:33
I wanted to create an online
air-quality management platform
air-quality management platform
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我想要创建一个
在线空气质量管理平台，
在线空气质量管理平台，
去揭示今后的污染趋势，
04:37
that would uncover trends in pollution
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进行相关预测
04:39
and project into the future
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04:41
to determine what outcomes
can be expected.
can be expected.
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来判断可能会发生的结果。
04:44
I was determined to see my idea
translate into a practical solution,
translate into a practical solution,
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我确信我的想法
能够成为一个现实的解决之道，
能够成为一个现实的解决之道，
但也面临着不确定性，
04:49
but I faced uncertainty
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04:52
and had no guarantee of success.
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我并不能保证它一定成功。
04:55
What I had was a very particular set
of engineering skills,
of engineering skills,
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我所拥有的就是一套
特定的工程师技能而已，
特定的工程师技能而已，
05:00
skills I'd acquired over my career
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从我的工作中所获得的技能。
（笑声）
05:03
(Laughter)
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05:04
that were new to people who had
been working on the air pollution problem
been working on the air pollution problem
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当然，对于多年来一直在
大气污染领域工作的人而言，
大气污染领域工作的人而言，
我的技能是全新的。
05:08
for so many years.
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05:09
What I have come to realize is that
sometimes just one fresh perspective,
sometimes just one fresh perspective,
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我逐渐意识到，有时候
一个新颖的视角，
一个新颖的视角，
一个新的技能组合，
05:14
one new skill set,
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05:15
can make the conditions right
for something remarkable to happen.
for something remarkable to happen.
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可以催生一些卓越的事情。
05:20
Our willpower and imagination
are a guiding light,
are a guiding light,
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我们的意志力和想象力
是一盏指示灯，
是一盏指示灯，
指示我们越过阻碍，开启新篇章。
05:23
enabling us to chart new paths
and navigate through obstacles.
and navigate through obstacles.
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05:28
Armed with a firmer understanding
of the air pollution problem,
of the air pollution problem,
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我对大气污染问题
进行了更深入的了解，
进行了更深入的了解，
05:31
and having managed to source
over a decade's worth of data
over a decade's worth of data
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寻找到过去十几年的
05:35
on air pollutant levels
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大气污染数据，
以及约翰内斯堡及周边的气象数据。
05:36
and the meteorological conditions
for in and around Johannesburg,
for in and around Johannesburg,
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之后，我同南非和中国的同事一起
05:41
my colleagues from South Africa
and China and myself
and China and myself
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创建了空气质量决议支持系统，
05:45
created an air-quality
decision support system
decision support system
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并将其上传到了云端。
05:48
that lives in the cloud.
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05:50
This software system
analyzes historical and real-time data
analyzes historical and real-time data
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这个软件能够分析历史和实时数据
来揭示污染随时间和空间变化的趋势。
05:54
to uncover the spatial-temporal
trends in pollution.
trends in pollution.
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05:57
We then used new
machine learning technology
machine learning technology
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我们随后用新机器学习技术
06:00
to predict future levels of pollution
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提前数日
06:03
for several different pollutants
days in advance.
days in advance.
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预测未来污染情况。
06:06
This means that citizens
can make better decisions
can make better decisions
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这意味着居民可以
就他们的每日行程
就他们的每日行程
以及和家人在哪里定居，
06:10
about their daily movements
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做出更好的决定。
06:12
and about where to settle their families.
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06:14
We can predict adverse
pollution events ahead of time,
pollution events ahead of time,
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我们可以提前预知不利的污染事件，
界定重度污染源，
06:18
identify heavy polluters,
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使得相关权威机构可以下指令
06:19
and they can be ordered
by the relevant authorities
by the relevant authorities
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来调整他们的经营活动。
06:22
to scale back their operations.
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06:25
Through assisted scenario planning,
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通过辅助情景规划，
06:27
city planners can also make
better decisions
better decisions
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就如何拓展基础设施工作，
如工业区的居住安置，
06:30
about how to extend infrastructure,
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城市规划者也可以做出更好的决定。
06:32
such as human settlements
or industrial zones.
or industrial zones.
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06:36
We completed a pilot of our technology
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我们已经建立了
该技术的一个先行试点，
该技术的一个先行试点，
06:38
that was run over a period of 120 days,
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运行了120天，
06:42
covering all of South Africa.
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覆盖了整个南非。
06:45
Our results were confirmed
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我们的预期结果得到了验证。
06:47
when we demonstrated a tight correlation
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我们展示出的
06:49
between the forecasting data
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预测数据
和我们实地采集的数据
表现出了紧密的相关性。
表现出了紧密的相关性。
06:52
and the data we were getting
on the ground.
on the ground.
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06:55
Through our leadership,
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通过我们的管理层，
06:57
we have brought cutting-edge,
world-leading assets
world-leading assets
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我们引入了世界领先的尖端仪器
预测大气质量，
07:01
that can perform air-quality forecasting
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其解析度和正确率都是前所未见的，
07:03
at an unprecedented
resolution and accuracy,
resolution and accuracy,
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让不久前的冬日早晨
我所驶入的城市能够受惠。
我所驶入的城市能够受惠。
07:08
benefiting the city that I drove into
one winter morning not very long ago,
one winter morning not very long ago,
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07:14
and thought to myself,
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那时我对自己说，
“有些东西不对，
我得想办法做些什么。"
我得想办法做些什么。"
07:16
"Something is wrong here.
I wonder what can be done?"
I wonder what can be done?"
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07:20
So here is the point:
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所以，重点在于：
07:23
What if I'd not investigated
the problem of air pollution further?
the problem of air pollution further?
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如果当初我没有深入调研
大气污染的问题呢？
大气污染的问题呢？
07:28
What if I'd not shown some concern
for the state of the environment
for the state of the environment
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如果我没有关注国家的环境状况
而是寄希望于某些地方、
其他的某些人来管这些事呢？
其他的某些人来管这些事呢？
07:32
and just hoped that someone,
somewhere, was taking care of the matter?
somewhere, was taking care of the matter?
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07:37
What I have learned is that,
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我从中学到的是，
07:39
when embarking on a challenging endeavor
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当全力推进一项
我们都深信不疑的事业时，
07:41
that advances a cause
that we firmly believe in,
that we firmly believe in,
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07:44
it is important to focus
on the possibility of success
on the possibility of success
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关注成功的可能性
并考虑不作为的后果非常重要。
07:47
and consider the consequence
of not acting.
of not acting.
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07:51
We should not get distracted
by resistance and opposition,
by resistance and opposition,
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我们不应该为反对和阻力分心，
它应该激励我们走得更远。
07:55
but this should motivate us further.
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07:58
So wherever you are in the world,
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所以无论你在世界上哪一个地方，
下一次，当你发现
08:02
the next time you find
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你天生的某种好奇心
08:04
that there's some
natural curiosity you have
natural curiosity you have
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被激起，
08:06
that is being piqued,
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而它也事关你所在意之事，
08:08
and it's about something you care about,
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你有一些疯狂或勇敢的想法，
08:10
and you have some crazy or bold ideas,
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08:13
and perhaps it's outside
the realm of your expertise,
the realm of your expertise,
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即使这并非你的专业领域，
08:16
ask yourself this:
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问问自己：
08:19
Why not?
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为何不试试呢？
08:22
Why not just go ahead
and tackle the problem
and tackle the problem
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为什么不勇往直前来解决问题？
尽最大努力，以你自己的方式？
08:24
as best as you can, in your own way?
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08:27
You may be pleasantly surprised.
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你或许会得到意外之喜。
08:31
Thank you.
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谢谢大家。
（掌声）
08:32
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tapiwa Chiwewe - AI researcherTapiwa Chiwewe, PhD, manages the advanced and applied artificial intelligence group at IBM Research – Africa, which uses artificial intelligence to develop solutions for some of Africa's grand challenges whilst making scientific advances.
Why you should listen
An engineer and researcher of many interests, Tapiwa Chiwewe has worked in academia and industry, developing commercial products and conducting scientific research in many areas that include mining, healthcare, defense, astronomy and the environment.
Chiwewe studied at the University of Pretoria in South Africa where he earned a PhD in Computer Engineering. His roles have ranged from junior lecturer and researcher, software engineer, followed by an extended stint with South Africa’s Council for Scientific and Industrial Research.
Tapiwa Chiwewe | Speaker | TED.com