TEDGlobal 2012
Vicki Arroyo: Let's prepare for our new climate
Vicki Arroyo: 做好准备去面对新的气候情形
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不同于政治宣言：数据表明气候变化正在可视地进行，正如Vicki Arroyo 所言，现在就是为我们的家园和城市做好准备对应气候变化的时刻了，正是因为不断增加的洪暴几率，干旱无常。她所发表的激情洋溢的演讲同时阐述了全世界的大胆工程- - -当地应对气候变化的例子和当地所做到的前卫的思考。
Vicki Arroyo - Environmental policy influencer
Vicki Arroyo uses environmental law and her background in biology and ecology to help prepare for global climate change. Full bio
Vicki Arroyo uses environmental law and her background in biology and ecology to help prepare for global climate change. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
This is the skyline of my hometown, New Orleans.
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这是我家乡新奥尔兰的天际线，
00:21
It was a great place to grow up,
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这是一个适合长大的地方。
00:24
but it's one of the most vulnerable spots in the world.
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但这也是这世上最脆弱的地方之一，
00:28
Half the city is already below sea level.
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一半的城市都已经低于海平面了。
00:30
In 2005, the world watched as New Orleans
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在2005年，全世界目睹了 新奥尔兰
00:34
and the Gulf Coast were devastated by Hurricane Katrina.
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和墨西哥湾岸区被凯瑟琳台风所摧毁，
00:37
One thousand, eight hundred and thirty-six people died. Nearly 300,000 homes were lost.
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一千八百三十四人不幸丧命，近三十万人流离失所。
00:43
These are my mother's, at the top --
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在那上面，是我妈妈的屋子－
00:46
although that's not her car,
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尽管那不是她的车
00:47
it was carried there by floodwaters up to the roof --
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那是被洪水带到上面的。
00:50
and that's my sister's, below.
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而下面的，则是我姐姐的
00:52
Fortunately, they and other family members got out in time,
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万幸的是，她们和其他家庭成员都及时逃生了
00:56
but they lost their homes, and as you can see,
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但是正如您所见，她们失去了自己的家园
00:58
just about everything in them.
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和里面几乎一切
01:01
Other parts of the world have been hit by storms
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这个世界其余地方也遭遇暴风雨
01:03
in even more devastating ways.
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甚至是以一种更毁灭性的方式。
01:05
In 2008, Cyclone Nargis and its aftermath
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在2008年，飓风纳尔吉斯及其余波
01:08
killed 138,000 in Myanmar.
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使138,000缅甸人遇害。
01:11
Climate change is affecting our homes, our communities,
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气候变化正在影响着我们的家园，及社区
01:15
our way of life. We should be preparing
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和我们的生活方式。我们需要准备好
01:17
at every scale and at every opportunity.
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面对任何规模，任何机会。
01:21
This talk is about being prepared for, and resilient to
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这个话题使关于准备好，能时刻适应
01:25
the changes that are coming and that will affect our homes
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即将来临的变化和其将为我们的家
01:27
and our collective home, the Earth.
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和我们共同的家园：地球所带来的影响。
01:30
The changes in these times won't affect us all equally.
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我们将面临的改变不会对每个人造成一样的影响。
01:34
There are important distributional consequences,
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这里有很多重大的次生结果
01:36
and they're not what you always might think.
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并且可能与你一直所想的大相径庭。
01:39
In New Orleans, the elderly and female-headed households
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在新奥尔兰，老年人和需要支撑起整个家庭的主妇们
01:42
were among the most vulnerable.
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是最脆弱的。
01:44
For those in vulnerable, low-lying nations,
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对于那些脆弱，无依无靠的人，
01:46
how do you put a dollar value on losing your country
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你怎能等同一美元和失去你的国家
01:49
where you ancestors are buried? And where will your people go?
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那你祖先所居住的地方？而且你又能去哪儿呢？
01:54
And how will they cope in a foreign land?
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再之他们又怎么适应新的地方？
01:56
Will there be tensions over immigration,
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他们是否会因为移民而焦虑，
01:58
or conflicts over competition for limited resources?
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又或为了争夺匮乏的资源而争吵？
02:01
It's already fueled conflicts in Chad and Darfur.
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这已曾在乍得共和国和苏尔富尔（位于苏丹，译者注）引起过冲突
02:06
Like it or not, ready or not, this is our future.
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喜欢或不喜欢，准备好了或是没有，这 就是我们的未来。
02:11
Sure, some are looking for opportunities in this new world.
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是的，有人在寻找新世界的机遇。
02:15
That's the Russians planting a flag on the ocean bottom
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那是俄罗斯在海底插上他们的国旗
02:18
to stake a claim for minerals under the receding Arctic sea ice.
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去申明矿物所有权，在北极渐渐退去的冰底中
02:21
But while there might be some short-term individual winners,
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但是当这可能会有一些短期获利的同时
02:25
our collective losses will far outweigh them.
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我们累计起的损失会远远超过这些。
02:28
Look no further than the insurance industry as they struggle
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不要舍近求远，就像保险行业挣扎着
02:30
to cope with mounting catastrophic losses
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去赔偿灾难的损失
02:32
from extreme weather events.
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来源于恶劣的天气环境。
02:35
The military gets it. They call climate change
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军队懂得了，他们把气候改变称为
02:38
a threat multiplier that could harm stability and security,
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一个威胁倍增器，它们可以威胁稳定和安全，
02:41
while governments around the world are evaluating
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正当全世界的政府正在评估
02:44
how to respond.
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如何去回应的时候。
02:46
So what can we do? How can we prepare and adapt?
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所以，我们能做什么？我们如何准备并去适应？
02:50
I'd like to share three sets of examples, starting with
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我想分享三个例子，开始于
02:53
adapting to violent storms and floods.
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适应猛烈的暴风雨和洪水。
02:56
In New Orleans, the I-10 Twin Spans,
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在新奥尔南，1-10双拱桥
02:59
with sections knocked out in Katrina, have been rebuilt
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因其中一个被击垮，已经重建
03:02
21 feet higher to allow for greater storm surge.
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高21码去适应更猛烈的浪潮。
03:06
And these raised and energy-efficient homes
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和这些建得更高且高能效的房屋
03:08
were developed by Brad Pitt and Make It Right
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是“布拉特皮特”和“使它变得更好”(Make it Right)组织建立
03:11
for the hard-hit Ninth Ward.
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为了有九级防御功能
03:14
The devastated church my mom attends has been
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这个被摧毁了的教堂是我母亲过去常去的一个
03:17
not only rebuilt higher, it's poised to become
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不仅仅被建得更高了，而且还被建成了
03:20
the first Energy Star church in the country.
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这个国家的第一个一星能源教堂。
03:22
They're selling electricity back to the grid
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它们运输电源到输电网
03:24
thanks to solar panels, reflective paint and more.
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基于太阳能面板和反光漆油以及其余东西。
03:28
Their March electricity bill was only 48 dollars.
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他们二月份的电费仅仅是48美金。
03:31
Now these are examples of New Orleans rebuilding in this way,
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现在这些是新奥尔南重建过程中的案例们
03:35
but better if others act proactively with these changes in mind.
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但是如果别人能够提前设想这些措施就更好了。
03:40
For example, in Galveston, here's a resilient home
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举个例子，在加尔维斯顿有一个弹性结构房
03:43
that survived Hurricane Ike,
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从飓风中得以幸存
03:46
when others on neighboring lots clearly did not.
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当它周围的建筑都很明显被摧毁殆尽。
03:49
And around the world, satellites and warning systems
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与此同时在世界各地，卫星和报警系统
03:52
are saving lives in flood-prone areas such as Bangladesh.
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正在从像孟加拉国这样的低洼地区拯救生命
03:56
But as important as technology and infrastructure are,
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但是就像技术和基础设施一样重要
03:59
perhaps the human element is even more critical.
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人为因素可能更为重要。
04:03
We need better planning and systems for evacuation.
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我们需要更好的疏散计划和系统。
04:06
We need to better understand how people make decisions
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我们需要透彻地理解人们如何做决定
04:09
in times of crisis, and why.
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当他们面临危机时刻，而且为什么。
04:12
While it's true that many who died in Katrina did not have access to transportation,
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虽然真相是很多凯瑟琳台风遇害者都未能使用交通工具
04:16
others who did refused to leave as the storm approached,
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而有机会使用交通工具的却在暴风雨来临时拒绝离开
04:19
often because available transportation and shelters
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常常是因为可使用的交通工具和避难所
04:23
refused to allow them to take their pets.
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都拒绝允许他们带上自己的宠物
04:25
Imagine leaving behind your own pet in an evacuation or a rescue.
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想象一下无法撤离和营救你自己的宠物。
04:30
Fortunately in 2006, Congress passed
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但幸运的是在2006年，国会通过了
04:33
the Pet Evacuation and Transportation Standards Act (Laughter)
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宠物撤离及运输标准法案(PETS)
04:37
— it spells "PETS" — to change that.
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－添上了“宠物” －从而改变了之前的情形
04:41
Second, preparing for heat and drought.
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第二点，为和高温和干旱做好准备
04:44
Farmers are facing challenges of drought from Asia
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农民们正面临着旱灾的挑战，从亚洲
04:47
to Africa, from Australia to Oklahoma,
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到非洲,从澳洲到俄克拉荷马州
04:49
while heat waves linked with climate change
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与此同时高温热浪和气候变化紧紧相连
04:52
have killed tens of thousands of people
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已经杀死了成千上万的人
04:54
in Western Europe in 2003, and again in Russia in 2010.
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在2003年在西欧，和2010年的俄罗斯。
05:00
In Ethiopia, 70 percent, that's 7-0 percent of the population,
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在埃塞俄比亚百分之七十，是百分之七－十的人口
05:05
depends on rainfall for its livelihood.
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依靠降雨来维持他们的生活。
05:08
Oxfam and Swiss Re, together with Rockefeller Foundation,
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牛津饥荒救济委员会和瑞士再保险公司与洛克菲勒基金会携手
05:12
are helping farmers like this one build hillside terraces
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共同帮助像他一样农民们建造山坡梯田
05:15
and find other ways to conserve water,
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和找寻其余的方法保存用水
05:18
but they're also providing for insurance when the droughts do come.
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但当旱灾来临的时候他们也提供保险赔偿
05:22
The stability this provides is giving the farmers
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这让那些农民坚定了
05:24
the confidence to invest.
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投资的信心。
05:26
It's giving them access to affordable credit.
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向他们提供可负担的贷款。
05:29
It's allowing them to become more productive so that
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这使他们变得更加多产
05:30
they can afford their own insurance over time, without assistance.
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随着时间过去有能力自给自足，从而不需要赞助。
05:34
It's a virtuous cycle, and one that could be replicated
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这是一个良性循环，而且是可以在
05:37
throughout the developing world.
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发展中国家广泛使用的。
05:39
After a lethal 1995 heat wave
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在致命的1995热浪中
05:42
turned refrigerator trucks from the popular
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让冷藏车从芝加哥节日流行口味
05:45
Taste of Chicago festival into makeshift morgues,
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变成了停尸房。
05:48
Chicago became a recognized leader,
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芝加哥变成了广为人知的领导者，
05:50
tamping down on the urban heat island impact
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迈出了城市热岛效应
05:53
through opening cooling centers,
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借助于开放避暑中心
05:55
outreach to vulnerable neighborhoods, planting trees,
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到到脆弱的郊区，种植树木
05:58
creating cool white or vegetated green roofs.
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建立凉爽的或者植物覆盖的屋顶。
06:01
This is City Hall's green roof, next to Cook County's [portion of the] roof,
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这座市政厅的绿色屋顶，
06:05
which is 77 degrees Fahrenheit hotter at the surface.
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较为内部温度，表面温度高77华氏度
06:08
Washington, D.C., last year, actually led the nation
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华盛顿在去年实际上带领了这个国家
06:12
in new green roofs installed, and they're funding this in part
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建立绿色屋顶，而他们也通过
06:16
thanks to a five-cent tax on plastic bags.
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5分钱的塑料袋税收来为这项工程提供资金。
06:19
They're splitting the cost of installing these green roofs
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他们同时与家庭和建筑所有者
06:22
with home and building owners.
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共同分担建设绿色屋顶的费用。
06:24
The roofs not only temper urban heat island impact
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这种屋顶不仅能调节城市热岛效应
06:26
but they save energy, and therefore money,
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同时还能节约能源，金钱
06:29
the emissions that cause climate change,
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以及减少温室气体
06:31
and they also reduce stormwater runoff.
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同时也能起到排水效果。
06:33
So some solutions to heat can provide for win-win-wins.
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因此有些解决酷暑的手段能够带来双赢
06:38
Third, adapting to rising seas.
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第三点，适应海平面上升
06:42
Sea level rise threatens coastal ecosystems, agriculture,
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海平面上升威胁沿海地区生态，农业系统
06:45
even major cities. This is what one to two meters
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甚至主要城市。这是一 两米左右
06:49
of sea level rise looks like in the Mekong Delta.
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海平面上升在湄公河看起来的样子
06:52
That's where half of Vietnam's rice is grown.
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那里是越南一半粮食的产地。
06:54
Infrastructure is going to be affected.
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基础设施将会被影响。
06:58
Airports around the world are located on the coast.
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通往全世界的机场就建立在这里
07:00
It makes sense, right? There's open space,
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这很合理，对吧？因为这里是一片空地
07:02
the planes can take off and land without worrying about
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飞机可以起飞降落而不用担心
07:05
creating noise or avoiding tall buildings.
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产生噪音或去躲避高楼大厦。
07:07
Here's just one example, San Francisco Airport,
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这里只是一个例子，旧金山机场，
07:10
with 16 inches or more of flooding.
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受16英尺左右的洪水泛滥袭击。
07:13
Imagine the staggering cost of protecting
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想像一下用于保护
07:16
this vital infrastructure with levees.
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重要基础设施的堤坝的费用。
07:19
But there might be some changes in store
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但是与此同时可能有
07:20
that you might not imagine. For example,
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你不能预测的变化。比如，
07:23
planes require more runway for takeoff
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飞机需要更多的跑道去起飞，
07:26
because the heated, less dense air, provides for less lift.
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因为高温，不稠密的空气，不能提供足够的升力。
07:30
San Francisco is also spending 40 million dollars
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旧金山还花费四千万美元
07:33
to rethink and redesign its water and sewage treatment,
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去反思和重建下水道处理系统。
07:36
as water outfall pipes like this one can be flooded with seawater,
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因为像这样的排水渠口也可能被海水淹没，
07:40
causing backups at the plant, harming the bacteria
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从而危害植物，滋生细菌。
07:43
that are needed to treat the waste.
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需要建立设施来处理这些浪费。
07:44
So these outfall pipes have been retrofitted
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因此需要更新这些排水管道
07:46
to shut seawater off from entering the system.
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防止海水进入排水系统。
07:50
Beyond these technical solutions, our work
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除了这些技术层面的措施意外，我们位于
07:53
at the Georgetown Climate Center with communities
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乔治城气候中心和社区共同工作
07:54
encourages them to look at what existing legal and policy tools are available
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鼓励他们参考现存的法律和政策
07:58
and to consider how they can accommodate change.
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并且考虑如何才能适应变化。
08:02
For example, in land use, which areas do you want
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譬如，用地，哪片地区你想要
08:05
to protect, through adding a seawall, for example,
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通过用建设防波堤的方式去保护，再比方
08:08
alter, by raising buildings, or retreat from,
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通过升高建筑，或向后搬迁
08:11
to allow the migration of important natural systems,
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去允许重要的自然系统迁徙
08:14
such as wetlands or beaches?
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比方说湿地或者沙滩？
08:17
Other examples to consider. In the U.K.,
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这里同时有其余的例子，在英国，
08:19
the Thames Barrier protects London from storm surge.
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泰晤士河保护伦敦免遭于风暴潮袭击。
08:23
The Asian Cities Climate [Change] Resilience Network
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亚洲城市气候变迁韧性组织
08:25
is restoring vital ecosystems like forest mangroves.
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正在修复类似于红树林的重要的生态系统。
08:28
These are not only important ecosystems in their own right,
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这些生态系统不仅仅是本身是重要的
08:31
but they also serve as a buffer to protect inland communities.
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而且同时充当了缓冲区的作用来保护内陆地区。
08:36
New York City is incredibly vulnerable to storms,
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纽约在暴风雨面前显得十分脆弱，
08:39
as you can see from this clever sign, and to sea level rise,
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就想你在这块指示牌上看到的一样，纽约同时也经不住海平面上升
08:43
and to storm surge, as you can see from the subway flooding.
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和暴风雨，正如你从这幅纽约地铁涨水图中看见的一样。
08:46
But back above ground, these raised ventilation grates
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但是当我们返回到地面，这些上升的地铁通风格栏
08:50
for the subway system show that solutions can be both
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系统提醒我们措施可以同时
08:52
functional and attractive. In fact, in New York,
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是有功能效应且引人注意的。事实上，纽约
08:55
San Francisco and London, designers have envisioned
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旧金山和伦敦，设计师们已经设想出了
08:58
ways to better integrate the natural and built environments
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能更加契合自然并且
09:01
with climate change in mind.
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兼顾应对自然变化的建设方法。
09:03
I think these are inspiring examples of what's possible
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我认为这些设想都是十分打动人心的例子
09:06
when we feel empowered to plan for a world that will be different.
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，让我们认为自己有能力去改变这个世界。
09:09
But now, a word of caution.
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但是现在，请谨记着
09:12
Adaptation's too important to be left to the experts.
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对这些专家而言适应也是十分重要的。
09:15
Why? Well, there are no experts.
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为什么？因为就没有所谓的专家。
09:19
We're entering uncharted territory, and yet
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我们正在进入一个全新的领域，而目前为止
09:22
our expertise and our systems are based on the past.
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我们的专长和系统都仅仅是建立于过去的。
09:26
"Stationarity" is the notion that we can anticipate the future
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“平稳”是我们将使用于未来的准则
09:29
based on the past, and plan accordingly,
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基于经验，同时随机应变，
09:32
and this principle governs much of our engineering,
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与此同时，这也是一个领导我们当今工程
09:34
our design of critical infrastructure, city water systems,
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当今设计核心基础设施，城市排水系统，
09:37
building codes, even water rights and other legal precedents.
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建筑规范，甚至用水权以及其余判例的词。
09:41
But we can simply no longer rely on established norms.
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但是我们在也不能仅仅依靠建立规范了。
09:44
We're operating outside the bounds of CO2 concentrations
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我们已经超如了地球上已经恪守了成千上万年
09:49
that the planet has seen for hundreds of thousands of years.
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的二氧化碳浓度限制。
09:53
The larger point I'm trying to make is this.
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我在这里想说的是
09:57
It's up to us to look at our homes and our communities,
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这是我们的责任去照顾我们的家园和社会
10:00
our vulnerabilities and our exposures to risk,
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我们的脆弱且易暴露于危险之中的家园。
10:03
and to find ways to not just survive, but to thrive,
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不仅仅是去找寻一个生存的办法，而是一个繁荣兴旺的办法。
10:07
and it's up to us to plan and to prepare
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而且这是我们的责任去规划和准备
10:09
and to call on our government leaders and require them
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和提醒我们的政府领导并且要求他们
10:12
to do the same, even while they address
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去做同样的事，即便与此同时他们正在
10:14
the underlying causes of climate change.
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强调潜伏的气候变化原因。
10:17
There are no quick fixes.
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这没有权宜之计。
10:19
There are no one-size-fits-all solutions.
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这里没有完全之策。
10:22
We're all learning by doing.
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我们只有从实践中学习。
10:24
But the operative word is doing.
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关键词是做去，去实践。
10:28
Thank you. (Applause)
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谢谢。（掌声）
10:30
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Vicki Arroyo - Environmental policy influencerVicki Arroyo uses environmental law and her background in biology and ecology to help prepare for global climate change.
Why you should listen
The climate is quickly changing. Scientists increasingly talk of a new period in the Earth's history, the "anthropocene", in which human impact on the planet has become dominant. Yet we remain unprepared to deal with the consequences: specifically, the disruption and cost. Lawyer Vicki Arroyo, the executive director of the Georgetown Climate Center, works on climate mitigation and adaptation policies as viable solutions to climate change’s inevitable disruptions to current practices. Using the best available science, Arroyo collaborates with US policymakers at both the state and federal level to develop "planetary management" strategies.
For a through (and constantly updated) toolkit of adaptation resources, visit the Georgetown Climate Center >>
Read Vicki's essay on preparing for future disasters in the wake of Hurricane Sandy >>
Vicki Arroyo | Speaker | TED.com