TEDGlobal 2012
Vicki Arroyo: Let's prepare for our new climate
Vicki Arroyo: 迎戰新氣候
Filmed:
Readability: 5.1
1,170,050 views
政治放一邊： 資料顯示現在氣候變遷正已可感測到的速度發生中。就像Vicki Arroyo所說的，現在該是我們有效的面對節節高升的洪災、乾旱及不安威脅。在此充滿激情演說中，她藉由循序漸進的圖例說明世界上先驅城都市所使用的大膽工程創新-- 本土實例的創新思維。
Vicki Arroyo - Environmental policy influencer
Vicki Arroyo uses environmental law and her background in biology and ecology to help prepare for global climate change. Full bio
Vicki Arroyo uses environmental law and her background in biology and ecology to help prepare for global climate change. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
This is the skyline of my hometown, New Orleans.
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這是我家鄉紐奧良（New Orleans）的天際
00:21
It was a great place to grow up,
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曾幾何時它是一個很適合小孩長大的地方
00:24
but it's one of the most vulnerable spots in the world.
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但是它卻是個世界上很容易受到天然災害的地方其中之一
00:28
Half the city is already below sea level.
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這城市已有一半已經低與於海平面
00:30
In 2005, the world watched as New Orleans
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2005年紐奧良在全世界的關注下
00:34
and the Gulf Coast were devastated by Hurricane Katrina.
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整個海岸線被卡崔娜(Katrina)颶風摧殘的體無完膚
00:37
One thousand, eight hundred and thirty-six people died. Nearly 300,000 homes were lost.
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總共有多達一千八百三十六人罹難，幾近300,000個家庭失去家園
00:43
These are my mother's, at the top --
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這也包含我媽媽的家，在圖片的上方就是被摧殘後的摸樣
00:46
although that's not her car,
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雖然圖中那台車不是她的
00:47
it was carried there by floodwaters up to the roof --
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但在當時整台車被洪水沖到屋頂
00:50
and that's my sister's, below.
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在圖片的下方是我姐姐的家
00:52
Fortunately, they and other family members got out in time,
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不幸中的大幸當時她們都及時逃出去
00:56
but they lost their homes, and as you can see,
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但是就如同你們所看到她失去了她的家
00:58
just about everything in them.
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還有所有在裡面的東西
01:01
Other parts of the world have been hit by storms
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也有其它遭受到風災殘害的地方遍佈在世界各個角落
01:03
in even more devastating ways.
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遠比卡翠娜所帶來的傷亡還要更加嚴重
01:05
In 2008, Cyclone Nargis and its aftermath
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例如在2008年的颶風納格斯(Nargis)當下重創及風災後在緬甸所造成的總傷亡人數
01:08
killed 138,000 in Myanmar.
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高達138,000人
01:11
Climate change is affecting our homes, our communities,
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氣侯變遷正在影響著我們的家，我們的社區，
01:15
our way of life. We should be preparing
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我們生活的方式。我們應該要更加的未雨綢繆
01:17
at every scale and at every opportunity.
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把握每一個機會並且以更嚴警周全的態度來準備對抗這些天然災害
01:21
This talk is about being prepared for, and resilient to
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這演講的主題是有關如何準備並且以更積極正向的態度
01:25
the changes that are coming and that will affect our homes
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來面對這些接踵而來的氣候變遷。這些改變將會影響我們的家園
01:27
and our collective home, the Earth.
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，所有人的家園，甚至地球。
01:30
The changes in these times won't affect us all equally.
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也許現階段而言，這些環境變化對大家所造成的影響不一
01:34
There are important distributional consequences,
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但是它所造成的後果是分佈在世界各個角落
01:36
and they're not what you always might think.
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並且跟你原本想的也許不太一樣
01:39
In New Orleans, the elderly and female-headed households
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在紐奧良，那些較年長的或是母系家庭
01:42
were among the most vulnerable.
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是最脆弱的
01:44
For those in vulnerable, low-lying nations,
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對那些較貧乏、地勢低窪的國家
01:46
how do you put a dollar value on losing your country
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如何只為了一美元價值的東西而失去你的國家
01:49
where you ancestors are buried? And where will your people go?
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你的祖先要埋在哪？你的人民要往哪裡去？
01:54
And how will they cope in a foreign land?
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他們將如何面對這些問題在其它國家
01:56
Will there be tensions over immigration,
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會不會造成移民族群的緊張情勢
01:58
or conflicts over competition for limited resources?
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或是因為爭奪有限的資源而造成彼此間的衝突
02:01
It's already fueled conflicts in Chad and Darfur.
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在查德(Chad)和達爾富爾(Darfur)已經為了爭搶石油而鬧的不可開交
02:06
Like it or not, ready or not, this is our future.
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不管你喜歡不喜歡或是準備好了沒，這就是我們的未來
02:11
Sure, some are looking for opportunities in this new world.
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當然，有些人正在找尋機會開拓新世界
02:15
That's the Russians planting a flag on the ocean bottom
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俄羅斯人在海底插了他們的國旗
02:18
to stake a claim for minerals under the receding Arctic sea ice.
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證明那些在融化的北極冰海底的礦產是屬於他們的
02:21
But while there might be some short-term individual winners,
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也許有些個別得利的短期贏家們
02:25
our collective losses will far outweigh them.
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但是我們總合起來所失去的會遠遠超過他們所獲得的
02:28
Look no further than the insurance industry as they struggle
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就拿最近的例子來說，現在保險公司正在死命的掙扎著
02:30
to cope with mounting catastrophic losses
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面對處理著堆積如山的天災保險損失
02:32
from extreme weather events.
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來自於極端氣侯所帶來的損失
02:35
The military gets it. They call climate change
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軍方了解其重要性。他們將稱氣侯變遷
02:38
a threat multiplier that could harm stability and security,
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稱之為威脅加成製造機且可能破壞國家的穩定及安全
02:41
while governments around the world are evaluating
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當世界各地的政府機關正在評估著
02:44
how to respond.
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如何回應
02:46
So what can we do? How can we prepare and adapt?
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那我們可以做些什麼？我們如何準備跟適應？
02:50
I'd like to share three sets of examples, starting with
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我在這邊呢想分享三個範例給大家，我們就從
02:53
adapting to violent storms and floods.
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如何適應兇猛風災跟洪水來開始吧
02:56
In New Orleans, the I-10 Twin Spans,
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在紐奧良，I-10 土恩(Twin Spans)跨海大橋
02:59
with sections knocked out in Katrina, have been rebuilt
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某些橋段在卡翠娜來襲時遭到破壞搗毀已經重建
03:02
21 feet higher to allow for greater storm surge.
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並且比先前還要高出21呎為的就是能夠承受更強大的洪水衝擊
03:06
And these raised and energy-efficient homes
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還有圖中這些新建的高起及高效節能的房子
03:08
were developed by Brad Pitt and Make It Right
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是由布萊德比特（Brad Pitt）與扭轉劣勢(Make it Right)組織協助遭受到
03:11
for the hard-hit Ninth Ward.
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重創的第九區（Ninth Ward）
03:14
The devastated church my mom attends has been
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我媽所參與但被風災搗毀的教堂
03:17
not only rebuilt higher, it's poised to become
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不但重建的更高，更被認定為
03:20
the first Energy Star church in the country.
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美國第一個能源之星（Energy Star）教堂
03:22
They're selling electricity back to the grid
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他們將所儲存獲取的電力回存到電網
03:24
thanks to solar panels, reflective paint and more.
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感謝太陽能源板、反光漆，還有其它更多的能源科技
03:28
Their March electricity bill was only 48 dollars.
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他們那個三月的電費只有48塊美金
03:31
Now these are examples of New Orleans rebuilding in this way,
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現在這只是些例子紐奧良的重建計劃的方式
03:35
but better if others act proactively with these changes in mind.
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但如果其他人可以將這些方法考慮進去並且更加積極的行動會更好
03:40
For example, in Galveston, here's a resilient home
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舉例來說，在加爾維斯頓（Galveston），有個充滿活力的家庭
03:43
that survived Hurricane Ike,
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在颶風艾克(Ike)的侵襲下存活下來
03:46
when others on neighboring lots clearly did not.
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而其它鄰居很明顯的並沒有
03:49
And around the world, satellites and warning systems
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在世界各地人們利用衛星和警報系統
03:52
are saving lives in flood-prone areas such as Bangladesh.
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的幫助下拯救了很多居住在洪水氾濫地方的居民像是孟加拉
03:56
But as important as technology and infrastructure are,
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在面對氣候變遷上，雖然科技與基礎建設都扮演著重要的角色
03:59
perhaps the human element is even more critical.
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但也許更加重要的是人的因素
04:03
We need better planning and systems for evacuation.
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我們需要更好的撤離計劃與系統
04:06
We need to better understand how people make decisions
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我們需要更加的暸解人們如何做決策
04:09
in times of crisis, and why.
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在危機之中，並且知道為什麼
04:12
While it's true that many who died in Katrina did not have access to transportation,
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的確有很多在卡翠娜來襲時，多數人是因為無法使用大眾運輸工具而身亡
04:16
others who did refused to leave as the storm approached,
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但也有些人是因為拒絕離開自己的家園而身亡
04:19
often because available transportation and shelters
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其原因往往是因為那些大眾運輸工具和避難所
04:23
refused to allow them to take their pets.
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拒絕也不允許他們帶寵物一起避難
04:25
Imagine leaving behind your own pet in an evacuation or a rescue.
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想像一下在救難或是撤離行動中丟下你們的寵物自行避難的樣子
04:30
Fortunately in 2006, Congress passed
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幸運的是在2006年，國會通過了
04:33
the Pet Evacuation and Transportation Standards Act (Laughter)
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寵物撤離及運輸標準法(Pet Evauation and Transpotation Standards Act)（笑聲）
04:37
— it spells "PETS" — to change that.
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修正一下-是複數不是只有一隻(PETS, not PET)
04:41
Second, preparing for heat and drought.
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第二個分享案例為，做好萬全的準備熱浪及乾旱的來襲
04:44
Farmers are facing challenges of drought from Asia
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從亞洲到非洲、澳洲到奧克拉馬
04:47
to Africa, from Australia to Oklahoma,
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所有的農夫現正面對著乾旱的挑戰
04:49
while heat waves linked with climate change
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當熱浪與氣候變遷連合總計
04:52
have killed tens of thousands of people
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造成數以萬計傷亡人數
04:54
in Western Europe in 2003, and again in Russia in 2010.
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一次在2003年西歐，另一次在2010年俄羅斯
05:00
In Ethiopia, 70 percent, that's 7-0 percent of the population,
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在衣索比亞（Ethiopia）有70%的人仰賴雨水來
05:05
depends on rainfall for its livelihood.
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生活，沒錯，佔總人口數的“70%”
05:08
Oxfam and Swiss Re, together with Rockefeller Foundation,
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歐克斯范恩(Oxfam)與蘇唯士黎(Swiss Re)，結合羅克費勒(Rockefeller)基金會
05:12
are helping farmers like this one build hillside terraces
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正在幫助那些農夫們建築如圖中的這個山坡露台來儲存雨水
05:15
and find other ways to conserve water,
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以及尋求其它保存水源的方式
05:18
but they're also providing for insurance when the droughts do come.
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當乾旱來襲時,他們也提供農業風災險給農夫們
05:22
The stability this provides is giving the farmers
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這個保障給予農夫們更多的
05:24
the confidence to invest.
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自信去投入更多作物
05:26
It's giving them access to affordable credit.
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它給予他們負擔的起的貸款
05:29
It's allowing them to become more productive so that
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讓他們能夠更有效率
05:30
they can afford their own insurance over time, without assistance.
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經過一段時間之後，他們可以在不依靠外力的幫助下自行負擔的起農業風災險
05:34
It's a virtuous cycle, and one that could be replicated
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這是一個良性循環，且成功的經驗是可以被複製到
05:37
throughout the developing world.
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所有發展中的國家
05:39
After a lethal 1995 heat wave
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在歷經了1995年致命熱浪侵襲後
05:42
turned refrigerator trucks from the popular
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它將那些在芝加哥美食慶典的冷藏車
05:45
Taste of Chicago festival into makeshift morgues,
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轉換成臨時搭建的停屍間
05:48
Chicago became a recognized leader,
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芝加哥成為大家公認的綠能都市的領導者
05:50
tamping down on the urban heat island impact
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將原本熱浪對衝擊現代都市
05:53
through opening cooling centers,
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藉由開放的冷卻中心
05:55
outreach to vulnerable neighborhoods, planting trees,
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延伸到較易受到熱害影響的社區，藉由種植樹木
05:58
creating cool white or vegetated green roofs.
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建造不易吸收熱的冷白屋頂及散熱較佳植物綠化能屋頂
06:01
This is City Hall's green roof, next to Cook County's [portion of the] roof,
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照片上是市政府的綠能屋頂旁邊這張圖則是庫克（Cook）郡市府[一部分]的屋頂
06:05
which is 77 degrees Fahrenheit hotter at the surface.
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沒覆蓋到綠化屋頂的表面溫度相較之下高了華氏77度
06:08
Washington, D.C., last year, actually led the nation
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華府在去年帶領全國打頭陣安裝了
06:12
in new green roofs installed, and they're funding this in part
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新綠化屋頂並且投入政府資金在安裝綠化屋頂上
06:16
thanks to a five-cent tax on plastic bags.
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感謝五美分塑膠袋稅政策
06:19
They're splitting the cost of installing these green roofs
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它們分擔了住戶及建商安裝綠化屋頂的
06:22
with home and building owners.
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部分成本
06:24
The roofs not only temper urban heat island impact
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綠化屋頂不只緩和熱島效應的衝擊
06:26
but they save energy, and therefore money,
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並且節能、節約
06:29
the emissions that cause climate change,
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減少造成氣候變遷二氧化碳排放量
06:31
and they also reduce stormwater runoff.
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它們也降低了雨水的流失
06:33
So some solutions to heat can provide for win-win-wins.
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所以那些用來解決熱島效應的方法達成了三贏局面
06:38
Third, adapting to rising seas.
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最後一個範例，如何適應持續上升的海平面
06:42
Sea level rise threatens coastal ecosystems, agriculture,
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海平面的升起威脅到沿岸的生態系統、農業、
06:45
even major cities. This is what one to two meters
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甚至一些沿岸主要城市。照片裡的是媚公河三角洲在海平面
06:49
of sea level rise looks like in the Mekong Delta.
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從一公尺上升到兩公尺後的樣貌
06:52
That's where half of Vietnam's rice is grown.
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那個區域也就是半數越南米的來源
06:54
Infrastructure is going to be affected.
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基礎建設也將受到影響
06:58
Airports around the world are located on the coast.
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在世界上大多數的機場都遍佈在沿海都市
07:00
It makes sense, right? There's open space,
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這樣也應該是合理的吧？ 在那邊有很多空曠的空間
07:02
the planes can take off and land without worrying about
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利於飛機的起降
07:05
creating noise or avoiding tall buildings.
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不用擔心製造噪音或是撞到高樓大廈
07:07
Here's just one example, San Francisco Airport,
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我來給大家舉個例子，在舊金山機場
07:10
with 16 inches or more of flooding.
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海平面上升了16吋或是有更多的洪水來襲
07:13
Imagine the staggering cost of protecting
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請各位想像一下為了保護這重要的設施而建造
07:16
this vital infrastructure with levees.
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堤防在它周遭那成本是多麼駭人
07:19
But there might be some changes in store
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但除此之外，還有一些你無法想像
07:20
that you might not imagine. For example,
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的改變在發生。舉例來說，
07:23
planes require more runway for takeoff
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飛機起飛時需要更多的跑道來起飛
07:26
because the heated, less dense air, provides for less lift.
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因為熱空氣造成空氣密度下降提供較少的爬升空間進而需要更多的跑道空間
07:30
San Francisco is also spending 40 million dollars
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舊金山市花了4000萬美金
07:33
to rethink and redesign its water and sewage treatment,
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在重新思考與建設新的下水道系統
07:36
as water outfall pipes like this one can be flooded with seawater,
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就如同圖中這個會被海水倒灌而淹沒的排水口一樣
07:40
causing backups at the plant, harming the bacteria
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造成抽水系統的啟動，破壞到可被用來
07:43
that are needed to treat the waste.
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分解廢料的益菌
07:44
So these outfall pipes have been retrofitted
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所以我們重新打造這些出水口管
07:46
to shut seawater off from entering the system.
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讓它們可以被用來阻隔海水倒灌到其它下水道系統
07:50
Beyond these technical solutions, our work
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除了這些技術上的解決之道外，我們也鼓勵在
07:53
at the Georgetown Climate Center with communities
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喬治城氣象中心(Georgetown Climate Center)的人員
07:54
encourages them to look at what existing legal and policy tools are available
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去檢閱現有的法律及政策
07:58
and to consider how they can accommodate change.
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是否能夠加入新的法規及條例
08:02
For example, in land use, which areas do you want
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舉例來說，在沿岸土地的使用上哪些部份可以
08:05
to protect, through adding a seawall, for example,
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加蓋防波堤又或者是
08:08
alter, by raising buildings, or retreat from,
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藉由改建增高原本的建築物或是
08:11
to allow the migration of important natural systems,
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將原本的建築物撤出重要的自然生態環境
08:14
such as wetlands or beaches?
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像是濕地跟海灘
08:17
Other examples to consider. In the U.K.,
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來看看其他的例子。在英國，
08:19
the Thames Barrier protects London from storm surge.
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泰唔士水閘保護倫敦免於暴風潮的迫害
08:23
The Asian Cities Climate [Change] Resilience Network
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亞洲氣候[變遷]適應脈絡網（The Asian Cites Climate [Change] Ressilience Network）
08:25
is restoring vital ecosystems like forest mangroves.
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正在回復那些重要的生態環境像是紅樹雨林
08:28
These are not only important ecosystems in their own right,
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那些不單單只是對它們自身重要的生態系統
08:31
but they also serve as a buffer to protect inland communities.
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但也是可以用做保護島嶼群的緩衝區
08:36
New York City is incredibly vulnerable to storms,
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紐約市是非常容易受暴風侵襲的都市
08:39
as you can see from this clever sign, and to sea level rise,
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你可以從圖中發現很明顯的當海平面的上升
08:43
and to storm surge, as you can see from the subway flooding.
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及暴風潮來襲時造成地下鐵淹水
08:46
But back above ground, these raised ventilation grates
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從地面上，這些突起的地下鐵通風口
08:50
for the subway system show that solutions can be both
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不只可以達到通風舒緩淹水還非常美觀
08:52
functional and attractive. In fact, in New York,
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事實上呢在紐約，
08:55
San Francisco and London, designers have envisioned
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舊金山和倫敦，有些設計師已經想像在未來
08:58
ways to better integrate the natural and built environments
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將氣候變遷的因子納入設計考量的一部分
09:01
with climate change in mind.
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將設計跟自然生態做更佳的結合
09:03
I think these are inspiring examples of what's possible
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我覺得這些有啟發性的範例告訴我們是有能力可以讓這個世界不一樣
09:06
when we feel empowered to plan for a world that will be different.
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當我們帶著使命感去面對這些氣候的變遷
09:09
But now, a word of caution.
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但是現在我想給大家一個警訊
09:12
Adaptation's too important to be left to the experts.
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關於適應氣候變遷，它實在太重要不能只靠專家來解決問題
09:15
Why? Well, there are no experts.
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為什麼呢？是的，因為專家根本不存在
09:19
We're entering uncharted territory, and yet
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我們正在進入一個未知的領域，而目前我們
09:22
our expertise and our systems are based on the past.
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所謂的專長與系統都是建構在已知得過去
09:26
"Stationarity" is the notion that we can anticipate the future
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"平穩性概念" 可以讓我們根據過往的經驗
09:29
based on the past, and plan accordingly,
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來預測未來且根據不同的預測結果來計劃準備
09:32
and this principle governs much of our engineering,
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在使用上我們應用了很多在我們的工程學上
09:34
our design of critical infrastructure, city water systems,
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包含了重要的基礎建設、都市水道系統、
09:37
building codes, even water rights and other legal precedents.
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建築物法規，甚至連用水權及其它已知法律先例
09:41
But we can simply no longer rely on established norms.
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但我們不能夠僅僅依靠著那些已建立的規範
09:44
We're operating outside the bounds of CO2 concentrations
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我們所面臨的情況是當CO2濃度遠遠超出
09:49
that the planet has seen for hundreds of thousands of years.
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地球幾十萬年前的數值
09:53
The larger point I'm trying to make is this.
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我在這邊想強調的是
09:57
It's up to us to look at our homes and our communities,
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我們自己才是最了解自己的人
10:00
our vulnerabilities and our exposures to risk,
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我們知道我們的家園及社區哪裡最脆弱最需要被保護
10:03
and to find ways to not just survive, but to thrive,
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進而對症下藥，不只是求生存而是要鞏固它
10:07
and it's up to us to plan and to prepare
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事在人為，全看我們要如何計劃跟準備
10:09
and to call on our government leaders and require them
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並且我們要呼籲政府要求他們
10:12
to do the same, even while they address
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也要做好萬全的準備，雖然現階段他們
10:14
the underlying causes of climate change.
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還停留在強調造成氣侯變遷的原因
10:17
There are no quick fixes.
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解決氣候變遷沒有速解法
10:19
There are no one-size-fits-all solutions.
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也沒有絕對解
10:22
We're all learning by doing.
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我們只能在行動中學
10:24
But the operative word is doing.
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但開始做就是好的開始
10:28
Thank you. (Applause)
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謝謝（鼓掌聲）
10:30
(Applause)
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（鼓掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Vicki Arroyo - Environmental policy influencerVicki Arroyo uses environmental law and her background in biology and ecology to help prepare for global climate change.
Why you should listen
The climate is quickly changing. Scientists increasingly talk of a new period in the Earth's history, the "anthropocene", in which human impact on the planet has become dominant. Yet we remain unprepared to deal with the consequences: specifically, the disruption and cost. Lawyer Vicki Arroyo, the executive director of the Georgetown Climate Center, works on climate mitigation and adaptation policies as viable solutions to climate change’s inevitable disruptions to current practices. Using the best available science, Arroyo collaborates with US policymakers at both the state and federal level to develop "planetary management" strategies.
For a through (and constantly updated) toolkit of adaptation resources, visit the Georgetown Climate Center >>
Read Vicki's essay on preparing for future disasters in the wake of Hurricane Sandy >>
Vicki Arroyo | Speaker | TED.com