TED2003
Juan Enriquez: The life code that will reshape the future
Juan Enriquez畅谈基因组学与人类未来
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未来学家Juan Enriquez指出，科学发现需要顺应日新月异的密码以及我们对密码的熟练掌握，同时他强调这个看法在基因组学领域的应用
Juan Enriquez - Futurist
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society. Full bio
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:25
I'm supposed to scare you, because it's about fear, right?
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我要开始危言耸听了
00:29
And you should be really afraid,
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然后你们应该会感到担心
00:31
but not for the reasons why you think you should be.
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但不是因为你们认为的原因而担心
00:34
You should be really afraid that --
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你们所担心的是——
00:36
if we stick up the first slide on this thing -- there we go -- that you're missing out.
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如果你关注的是幻灯片上这东西，那没问题，但如果你关注的不是这个，那么你将会错过一些真正值得关注的事物
00:42
Because if you spend this week thinking about Iraq and
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比如说你们这周都在关注伊拉克
00:46
thinking about Bush and thinking about the stock market,
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布什或者股市
00:50
you're going to miss one of the greatest adventures that we've ever been on.
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那么就会错过有史以来最棒的体验
00:53
And this is what this adventure's really about.
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关于这东西的体验
00:55
This is crystallized DNA.
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即DNA晶体
00:59
Every life form on this planet -- every insect, every bacteria, every plant,
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这个星球上形成的每个生命，包括昆虫，细菌，植物
01:02
every animal, every human, every politician -- (Laughter)
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动物，人类，政治家——(笑)
01:07
is coded in that stuff.
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都是由DNA编码的
01:09
And if you want to take a single crystal of DNA, it looks like that.
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这是单个DNA晶体
01:13
And we're just beginning to understand this stuff.
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而我们目前对它的研究才刚起步
01:16
And this is the single most exciting adventure that we have ever been on.
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这项研究将给我们带来前所未有的振奋
01:20
It's the single greatest mapping project we've ever been on.
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将是目前为止我们所参与的最伟大的项目
01:23
If you think that the mapping of America's made a difference,
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如果你认为绘制美国地图
01:25
or landing on the moon, or this other stuff,
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登陆月球或类似项目影响深远
01:28
it's the map of ourselves and the map of every plant
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那么你错了，实际上我们每一个人以及每种植物
01:31
and every insect and every bacteria that really makes a difference.
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昆虫，细菌的基因图谱才是最具意义的
01:34
And it's beginning to tell us a lot about evolution.
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它能告诉我们进化史
01:39
(Laughter)
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(笑)
01:43
It turns out that what this stuff is --
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这就是
01:45
and Richard Dawkins has written about this --
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正如Richard Dawkins著作《伊甸园之河》
01:47
is, this is really a river out of Eden.
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是条伊甸园之河
01:49
So, the 3.2 billion base pairs inside each of your cells
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你的细胞中有320亿对碱基
01:53
is really a history of where you've been for the past billion years.
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见证你在过去10几亿年的历史
01:56
And we could start dating things,
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我们开始从事各方面研究
01:57
and we could start changing medicine and archeology.
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我们开始改变药物，开始考古
02:01
It turns out that if you take the human species about 700 years ago,
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你会发现在大约700年前
02:04
white Europeans diverged from black Africans in a very significant way.
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欧洲白人与非洲黑人有显著差异
02:07
White Europeans were subject to the plague.
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欧洲白人受鼠疫侵袭
02:13
And when they were subject to the plague, most people didn't survive,
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大部分人因此死去
02:16
but those who survived had a mutation on the CCR5 receptor.
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但仍有一小部分人存活下来，因为这些人CCR5受体上有一个基因发生突变
02:20
And that mutation was passed on to their kids
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突变基因传给了他们的后代
02:22
because they're the ones that survived,
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只有他们存活下来，繁衍出后代
02:24
so there was a great deal of population pressure.
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所以说当时鼠疫造成了很大的人口选择压力，只有拥有突变基因的人才能存活
02:26
In Africa, because you didn't have these cities,
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在非洲，因为没有这群人
02:28
you didn't have that CCR5 population pressure mutation.
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就不存在造成人口选择压力的CCR5突变基因
02:31
We can date it to 700 years ago.
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这大概是700年前的事
02:34
That is one of the reasons why AIDS is raging across Africa as fast as it is,
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CCR5突变基因也是艾滋病非洲大陆迅速蔓延
02:38
and not as fast across Europe.
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而在欧洲却没有那么快的原因之一
02:42
And we're beginning to find these little things for malaria,
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我们现在刚刚开始研究这个突变基因对疟疾
02:45
for sickle cell, for cancers.
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镰刀状细胞以及癌症的作用
02:49
And in the measure that we map ourselves,
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因此我们开始测绘人类基因图谱
02:51
this is the single greatest adventure that we'll ever be on.
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这绝对是一个前无古人的伟大项目
02:53
And this Friday, I want you to pull out a really good bottle of wine,
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这周五，我要你们拿出上好的葡萄酒
02:57
and I want you to toast these two people.
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向两个伟人敬酒
03:00
Because this Friday, 50 years ago, Watson and Crick found the structure of DNA,
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50年前的这个周五，正是沃森和克里克发现了DNA结构
03:04
and that is almost as important a date
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这跟
03:07
as the 12th of February when we first mapped ourselves,
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我们2月12日那天开始的基因测绘一样重要
03:10
but anyway, we'll get to that.
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不过不管怎么说，我们最终都能发展到这一步
03:12
I thought we'd talk about the new zoo.
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现在还是来讨论目前最新的物种世界吧
03:14
So, all you guys have heard about DNA, all the stuff that DNA does,
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你们都听说过DNA及其作用
03:18
but some of the stuff we're discovering is kind of nifty
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我们发现一样有趣的东西
03:21
because this turns out to be the single most abundant species on the planet.
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地球上这个物种最丰富
03:26
If you think you're successful or cockroaches are successful,
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你也许认为你最强大或者蟑螂最强大
03:29
it turns out that there's ten trillion trillion Pleurococcus sitting out there.
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实际上肋球藻属才是最强大的，地球上有十万亿兆多个
03:32
And we didn't know that Pleurococcus was out there,
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而我们却不知道有这么多肋球藻属
03:35
which is part of the reason
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这是为什么物种的基因测绘项目如此重要
03:36
why this whole species-mapping project is so important.
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的一部分原因
03:41
Because we're just beginning to learn
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我们才刚刚知道
03:43
where we came from and what we are.
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我们来自哪，我们是什么
03:45
And we're finding amoebas like this. This is the amoeba dubia.
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我们发现了变形虫，这是放射变形虫
03:49
And the amoeba dubia doesn't look like much,
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放射变形虫之间并不相像
03:51
except that each of you has about 3.2 billion letters,
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而你们每一个人都有32亿字母(A,T,C,Gs)
03:54
which is what makes you you,
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这些字母组成了你
03:56
as far as gene code inside each of your cells,
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这是就你细胞里的遗传密码而言
03:59
and this little amoeba which, you know,
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微小的变形虫
04:02
sits in water in hundreds and millions and billions,
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生活在水中，可能有数百只，数百万只或者数十亿只
04:05
turns out to have 620 billion base pairs of gene code inside.
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变形虫细胞里有6200亿碱基对组成的遗传密码
04:11
So, this little thingamajig has a genome
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也就说它的基因组数量
04:14
that's 200 times the size of yours.
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是你的200倍
04:17
And if you're thinking of efficient information storage mechanisms,
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如果你正关注有效的信息储存机制
04:21
it may not turn out to be chips.
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芯片可能还达不到你的要求
04:24
It may turn out to be something that looks a little like that amoeba.
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但变形虫可以
04:28
And, again, we're learning from life and how life works.
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我们正对生命进行研究，研究其运作机制
04:32
This funky little thing: people didn't used to think
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看看这个，人们以前并不认为
04:36
that it was worth taking samples out of nuclear reactors
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从核反应堆中提取样品能有所发现
04:39
because it was dangerous and, of course, nothing lived there.
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因为这是很危险的，而且其中肯定没有生命存在
04:42
And then finally somebody picked up a microscope
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后来终于有人用显微镜
04:45
and looked at the water that was sitting next to the cores.
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观察了核反应堆核心边上的水源
04:48
And sitting next to that water in the cores
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发现
04:50
was this little Deinococcus radiodurans, doing a backstroke,
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耐辐射球菌，不停地捍卫自己的生命
04:53
having its chromosomes blown apart every day,
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它们的染色体每天都被强行分开
04:55
six, seven times, restitching them,
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6至7次，然后再自行聚合
04:58
living in about 200 times the radiation that would kill you.
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它们生活环境中的辐射是能够杀死你的辐射的200倍
05:01
And by now you should be getting a hint as to how diverse
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现在你们应该能够意识到
05:04
and how important and how interesting this journey into life is,
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研究基因是多么多样化，多么重要，多么有趣
05:06
and how many different life forms there are,
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以及到底有多少种生命形式
05:09
and how there can be different life forms living in
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而这么多的生命又怎么能够在
05:12
very different places, maybe even outside of this planet.
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不同环境中甚至地球以外的星球上生存
05:16
Because if you can live in radiation that looks like this,
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如果你能在类似的高辐射环境中生存下来
05:18
that brings up a whole series of interesting questions.
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这就产生了一系列有意思的疑问
05:22
This little thingamajig: we didn't know this thingamajig existed.
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这小东西：我们不知道它的存在
05:26
We should have known that this existed
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但我们本应该要知道
05:28
because this is the only bacteria that you can see to the naked eye.
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因为它是唯一露眼能见的细菌
05:31
So, this thing is 0.75 millimeters.
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直径0.75毫米
05:34
It lives in a deep trench off the coast of Namibia.
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生活在离纳米比亚海岸不远的深海沟里
05:37
And what you're looking at with this namibiensis
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这种纳米比亚戈登氏菌是我们见过的
05:39
is the biggest bacteria we've ever seen.
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最大的细菌
05:41
So, it's about the size of a little period on a sentence.
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大概有一个句子里的句号那么大
05:45
Again, we didn't know this thing was there three years ago.
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再一次强调，三年前我们还不知道它的存在
05:49
We're just beginning this journey of life in the new zoo.
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现在才刚刚开始对物种世界的探索之旅
05:53
This is a really odd one. This is Ferroplasma.
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这个菌比较奇特，是铁原体菌
05:57
The reason why Ferroplasma is interesting is because it eats iron,
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因为它以铁为能源
06:01
lives inside the equivalent of battery acid,
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生活在等同于于酸电池的环境中
06:05
and excretes sulfuric acid.
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会分泌出硫酸
06:09
So, when you think of odd life forms,
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你开始关注这个奇特的生命形式
06:11
when you think of what it takes to live,
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它是靠什么维持生命的
06:15
it turns out this is a very efficient life form,
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你会发现这种生命形式非常高效
06:17
and they call it an archaea. Archaea means "the ancient ones."
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它是一种古细菌，古细菌顾名思义远古时期就有的 细菌
06:21
And the reason why they're ancient is because this thing came up
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这么说是因为
06:25
when this planet was covered
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古细菌在地球还处在类似于
06:27
by things like sulfuric acid in batteries,
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酸电池的环境中时就出现了
06:28
and it was eating iron when the earth was part of a melted core.
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当地球还是一个熔浆核心的部分时它就开始消耗铁了
06:33
So, it's not just dogs and cats and whales and dolphins
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它不是猫狗也不是鲸鱼海豚
06:37
that you should be aware of and interested in on this little journey.
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这是探索过程中你们应该很清楚并且感兴趣的
06:41
Your fear should be that you are not,
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你们所担心的应该是
06:44
that you're paying attention to stuff which is temporal.
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你们关注的是非永恒的东西
06:47
I mean, George Bush -- he's going to be gone, alright? Life isn't.
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我的意思是，乔治布什总有一天会死去，但这种生命不会
06:53
Whether the humans survive or don't survive,
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不论人类是否生存
06:56
these things are going to be living on this planet or other planets.
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古细菌之类的都始终存在于地球或其他星球上
06:59
And it's just beginning to understand this code of DNA
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DNA现在对于遗传密码的研究才刚起步
07:03
that's really the most exciting intellectual adventure
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这将是迄今为止
07:06
that we've ever been on.
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最为激动人心的脑力体验
07:09
And you can do strange things with this stuff. This is a baby gar.
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你可以使用各种奇招怪法对它们进行实验。这是雀鳝属鱼的幼鱼
07:13
Conservation group gets together,
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保护组织成员集合在一起
07:15
tries to figure out how to breed an animal that's almost extinct.
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试着找出繁殖濒临灭绝的动物的方法
07:20
They can't do it naturally, so what they do with this thing is
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自然繁殖是行不通的，于是它们
07:23
they take a spoon, take some cells out of an adult gar's mouth, code,
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用勺子从成年雀鳝属鱼嘴里取出一些细胞，得出其密码
07:29
take the cells from that and insert it into a fertilized cow's egg,
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将上述细胞注入一头受精牛的卵细胞中
07:34
reprogram cow's egg -- different gene code.
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通过整合不同的遗传密码重新编程
07:38
When you do that, the cow gives birth to a gar.
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然后牛就会产下雀鳝属鱼
07:43
We are now experimenting with bongos, pandas, elims, Sumatran tigers,
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我们现在对非洲产大羚羊，熊猫， 以及苏门答腊虎做这种实验
07:49
and the Australians -- bless their hearts --
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澳大利亚人——保佑他们吧
07:52
are playing with these things.
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对这个动物进行这方面研究
07:53
Now, the last of these things died in September 1936.
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最后一个源自这种研究的动物死于1936年9月
07:57
These are Tasmanian tigers. The last known one died at the Hobart Zoo.
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这些是苏门答腊虎，我们所知道的最后一只死于霍巴特动物园
08:01
But it turns out that as we learn more about gene code
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但结果证明我们对遗传密码的研究越深入
08:04
and how to reprogram species,
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对重新编程物种越了解
08:06
we may be able to close the gene gaps in deteriorate DNA.
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那么我们就能够修复损坏DNA上的基因间隔
08:11
And when we learn how to close the gene gaps,
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如果能消除基因间隔
08:14
then we can put a full string of DNA together.
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就能将一连串的DNA连在一起
08:17
And if we do that, and insert this into a fertilized wolf's egg,
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通过这么做，并将其导入狼的受精卵中
08:22
we may give birth to an animal
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就能产出
08:24
that hasn't walked the earth since 1936.
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自1936年来地球上从未出现过的动物
08:27
And then you can start going back further,
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然后开始思考更早以前的东西
08:29
and you can start thinking about dodos,
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开始关注渡渡鸟
08:32
and you can think about other species.
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以及其他物种
08:34
And in other places, like Maryland, they're trying to figure out
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在其他地方，如马里兰，科学家们想找出
08:37
what the primordial ancestor is.
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到底咱们的原始祖先是什么
08:39
Because each of us contains our entire gene code
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Because each of us contains our entire gene code
08:42
of where we've been for the past billion years,
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过去的十几亿年我们又在哪
08:45
because we've evolved from that stuff,
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因为我们是从某样东西进化而来的
08:47
you can take that tree of life and collapse it back,
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这个可以通过先全貌后细节的方式来考虑
08:49
and in the measure that you learn to reprogram,
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通过对生命重新编程
08:52
maybe we'll give birth to something
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我们也许能造出
08:54
that is very close to the first primordial ooze.
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与我们的原始祖先十分相近的东西
08:56
And it's all coming out of things that look like this.
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就是靠这些设备帮助我们找到答案
08:58
These are companies that didn't exist five years ago.
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这些公司5年前还未出现
09:00
Huge gene sequencing facilities the size of football fields.
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庞大的基因测序设施足可媲美足球场
09:04
Some are public. Some are private.
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一些为公有，一些为私有
09:06
It takes about 5 billion dollars to sequence a human being the first time.
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第一次个人基因测序需要50亿美元
09:10
Takes about 3 million dollars the second time.
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第二次要300万美元
09:12
We will have a 1,000-dollar genome within the next five to eight years.
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在未来5年至8年内，我们将拥有价值1000美元的基因组
09:16
That means each of you will contain on a CD your entire gene code.
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这意味着你们每一个人都能得到一个含有自身整套遗传密码的CD
09:21
And it will be really boring. It will read like this.
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但是这东西很枯燥，就是这个样子
09:24
(Laughter)
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(笑)
09:26
The really neat thing about this stuff is that's life.
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这东西最大的价值在于组成了生命
09:28
And Laurie's going to talk about this one a little bit.
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劳里待会儿会说点这方面的东西
09:31
Because if you happen to find this one inside your body,
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如果你在自己的身体里发现这个
09:33
you're in big trouble, because that's the source code for Ebola.
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那你的麻烦就大了，因为那是埃博拉病毒的源码
09:37
That's one of the deadliest diseases known to humans.
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埃博拉病毒能造成人类所知最致命疾病的一种:埃博拉出血热
09:39
But plants work the same way and insects work the same way,
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植物、昆虫
09:41
and this apple works the same way.
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还有这个苹果都是由这些东西组成他们的生命
09:43
This apple is the same thing as this floppy disk.
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苹果跟软盘是一样的
09:45
Because this thing codes ones and zeros,
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软盘由1和0编码
09:47
and this thing codes A, T, C, Gs, and it sits up there,
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而苹果由腺嘌呤、胸腺嘧啶、鸟嘌呤、胞嘧啶编码，它长在树上
09:49
absorbing energy on a tree, and one fine day
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吸收树提供的营养，某一天
09:52
it has enough energy to say, execute, and it goes [thump]. Right?
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它成熟了，就掉下来了，对吧？
09:56
(Laughter)
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(笑)
09:59
And when it does that, pushes a .EXE, what it does is,
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当苹果掉下来时，启动了一个exe程序
10:03
it executes the first line of code, which reads just like that,
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这程序执行了上面第一行代码
10:06
AATCAGGGACCC, and that means: make a root.
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AATCAGGGACCC，编码根
10:09
Next line of code: make a stem.
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下一行编码茎
10:11
Next line of code, TACGGGG: make a flower that's white,
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下一行TACGGGG编码
10:14
that blooms in the spring, that smells like this.
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开在春天，有这种味道的花
10:17
In the measure that you have the code
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只要你有遗传密码
10:19
and the measure that you read it --
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并将其破解
10:22
and, by the way, the first plant was read two years ago;
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顺便提一下，两年前第一个植物
10:24
the first human was read two years ago;
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第一个人类
10:26
the first insect was read two years ago.
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以及第一个昆虫的遗传密码被破解出
10:28
The first thing that we ever read was in 1995:
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我们第一次破解出遗传密码是在1995年
10:31
a little bacteria called Haemophilus influenzae.
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那是一种叫做流感嗜血杆菌的细菌
10:34
In the measure that you have the source code, as all of you know,
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只要你有源密码
10:37
you can change the source code, and you can reprogram life forms
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你可以改变源密码，重新编程生命形式
10:39
so that this little thingy becomes a vaccine,
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这东西就会变成疫苗
10:41
or this little thingy starts producing biomaterials,
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或者说它开始产生生物材料
10:44
which is why DuPont is now growing a form of polyester
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这也是为什么杜邦开始投产聚酯的原因
10:47
that feels like silk in corn.
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是类似于玉米须的生物材料
10:50
This changes all rules. This is life, but we're reprogramming it.
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这项技术能带来翻天覆地的变化，我们能够对生命进行重新编程
10:57
This is what you look like. This is one of your chromosomes.
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这是你的基因图谱的样子，这是你的一条染色体
11:01
And what you can do now is,
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你现在可以
11:03
you can outlay exactly what your chromosome is,
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买下你的基因图谱
11:06
and what the gene code on that chromosome is right here,
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这里是那条染色体上的基因
11:09
and what those genes code for, and what animals they code against,
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这列是基因所编码的东西，这列是基因能编码的特定模型
11:12
and then you can tie it to the literature.
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你可以将这些与文献联系起来
11:14
And in the measure that you can do that, you can go home today,
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然后回家
11:17
and get on the Internet, and access
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上网，找到
11:19
the world's biggest public library, which is a library of life.
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世界上最大的公共图书馆，也是生命图书馆
11:23
And you can do some pretty strange things
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在那你可以做点稀奇的事
11:25
because in the same way as you can reprogram this apple,
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因为你可以用类似的方法对苹果基因重新编程
11:28
if you go to Cliff Tabin's lab at the Harvard Medical School,
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如果你去哈佛医学院的Cliff Tabin实验室
11:31
he's reprogramming chicken embryos to grow more wings.
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他正在重新编程鸡胚，期望能生出多腿的小鸡
11:37
Why would Cliff be doing that? He doesn't have a restaurant.
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为什么Cliff要这么做呢，他又不是开餐馆的
11:40
(Laughter)
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(笑)
11:42
The reason why he's reprogramming that animal to have more wings
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他从事这项研究
11:45
is because when you used to play with lizards as a little child,
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是因为当我们小时候玩蟋蟀
11:48
and you picked up the lizard, sometimes the tail fell off, but it regrew.
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有时候抓住蟋蟀时它的尾巴会掉，但还能再长出来
11:52
Not so in human beings:
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但是人类就不一样
11:55
you cut off an arm, you cut off a leg -- it doesn't regrow.
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你切断的手臂或者腿却不会再长出来
11:58
But because each of your cells contains your entire gene code,
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但因为你们每个人的细胞中都含有自身的一整套遗传密码
12:03
each cell can be reprogrammed, if we don't stop stem cell research
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每个细胞都能够被重新编程，如果我们不放弃干细胞研究
12:07
and if we don't stop genomic research,
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以及基因组研究
12:09
to express different body functions.
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来实现不同的身体功能
12:13
And in the measure that we learn how chickens grow wings,
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通过实验，我们得知小鸡是如何长出翅膀的
12:16
and what the program is for those cells to differentiate,
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以及是什么机制使得细胞分化而具有不同功能
12:18
one of the things we're going to be able to do
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我们要做的其中一件事
12:21
is to stop undifferentiated cells, which you know as cancer,
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是阻止非分化细胞，即癌细胞
12:25
and one of the things we're going to learn how to do
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我们要学会做的一件事
12:27
is how to reprogram cells like stem cells
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是如何模拟干细胞重新编程细胞
12:30
in such a way that they express bone, stomach, skin, pancreas.
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模拟干细胞可以分化出骨头，胃，皮肤，胰腺
12:37
And you are likely to be wandering around -- and your children --
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你或者你的孩子可以想象
12:40
on regrown body parts in a reasonable period of time,
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通过科学家在世界上某个地方的努力钻研
12:44
in some places in the world where they don't stop the research.
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使得人体器官重新长出也指日可待了
12:49
How's this stuff work? If each of you differs
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干细胞如何运作的？你和你旁边那个人
12:54
from the person next to you by one in a thousand, but only three percent codes,
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有千分之一不同的可能，但这仅由3%的基因决定，
12:57
which means it's only one in a thousand times three percent,
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也就是概率是3%的一千倍
12:59
very small differences in expression and punctuation
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即使是表达和标点的微小区别
13:02
can make a significant difference. Take a simple declarative sentence.
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也能造成整句话意思大相径庭，以这句为例
13:07
(Laughter)
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(笑)
13:09
Right?
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是吧？
13:10
That's perfectly clear. So, men read that sentence,
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这非常清楚吧，如果让男人来念
13:14
and they look at that sentence, and they read this.
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他们会这么念
13:22
Okay?
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对吧？
13:23
Now, women look at that sentence and they say, uh-uh, wrong.
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而女人看到这个句子，呃，不对
13:27
This is the way it should be seen.
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她们会这么念
13:31
(Laughter)
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(笑)
13:39
That's what your genes are doing.
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这种区别都是由基因决定的
13:40
That's why you differ from this person over here by one in a thousand.
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这也是为什么你跟那边那个人有千分之一不同的可能
13:45
Right? But, you know, he's reasonably good looking, but...
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他长得不错，不过……
13:48
I won't go there.
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我还是不说这个了
13:51
You can do this stuff even without changing the punctuation.
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还有即使不通过改变标点也能实现前后意思的巨大差别
13:55
You can look at this, right?
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看看这个，美国税务局
13:59
And they look at the world a little differently.
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从另一个角度看
14:01
They look at the same world and they say...
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就变成他们的
14:03
(Laughter)
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(笑)
14:09
That's how the same gene code -- that's why you have 30,000 genes,
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这解释了同样的遗传密码会有不同的表达——你有3万个基因
14:13
mice have 30,000 genes, husbands have 30,000 genes.
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mice have 30,000 genes, husbands have 30,000 genes.
14:16
Mice and men are the same. Wives know that, but anyway.
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两者都有3万个基因，但妻子知道
14:20
You can make very small changes in gene code
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遗传密码上一点细微的改变
14:22
and get really different outcomes,
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就能产生非常巨大的变化
14:26
even with the same string of letters.
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即使是一连串相同字母组成的句子也会因为微小的变化而产生大相径庭的意思
14:30
That's what your genes are doing every day.
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你的基因每天就是在干这个活
14:33
That's why sometimes a person's genes
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这也是为什么有时候人的基因
14:35
don't have to change a lot to get cancer.
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不需要很大改变就会得上癌症
14:41
These little chippies, these things are the size of a credit card.
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这个芯片，大概是信用卡大小
14:46
They will test any one of you for 60,000 genetic conditions.
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能够对你们任何一个人进行6万种基因疾病的测试
14:49
That brings up questions of privacy and insurability
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虽然这又带来了隐私和保险
14:52
and all kinds of stuff, but it also allows us to start going after diseases,
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等等问题，但却能让我们追踪疾病
14:55
because if you run a person who has leukemia through something like this,
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如果让一个白血病人参加测试
14:59
it turns out that three diseases with
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结果发现3种
15:01
completely similar clinical syndromes
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临床症状非常相似的疾病
15:05
are completely different diseases.
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会出现不同的测试结果
15:07
Because in ALL leukemia, that set of genes over there over-expresses.
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因为在急性淋巴细胞性白血病中，上面那套基因会过表达
15:10
In MLL, it's the middle set of genes,
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混合型白血病中，中间那部分基因会过表达
15:12
and in AML, it's the bottom set of genes.
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而急性髓细胞白血病中，则是下面的那部分基因过表达
15:14
And if one of those particular things is expressing in your body,
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如果上述一种情况发生在你身上
15:19
then you take Gleevec and you're cured.
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那你可以服用格里维克，就能痊愈
15:22
If it is not expressing in your body,
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如果这些基因没有过表达
15:24
if you don't have one of those types --
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你没有患上其中任意一种疾病
15:26
a particular one of those types -- don't take Gleevec.
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就不需要服用格里维克
15:29
It won't do anything for you.
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它不会起到任何作用
15:31
Same thing with Receptin if you've got breast cancer.
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如果你得了乳腺癌，那就服用Receptin
15:34
Don't have an HER-2 receptor? Don't take Receptin.
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如果没有HER-2受体，就不需要服用该药
15:37
Changes the nature of medicine. Changes the predictions of medicine.
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从本质上改变药物
15:41
Changes the way medicine works.
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改变药物作用的方式和作用位点
15:43
The greatest repository of knowledge when most of us went to college
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我们上大学学过最宝贵的知识
15:46
was this thing, and it turns out that
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是这个，但现在
15:48
this is not so important any more.
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已经不在重要了
15:50
The U.S. Library of Congress, in terms of its printed volume of data,
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美国国会图书馆的纸质版数据量
15:54
contains less data than is coming out of a good genomics company
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还没有一个好的基因公司
15:58
every month on a compound basis.
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每个月提供的数据多，前提是复合数据
16:01
Let me say that again: A single genomics company
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我想再强调一次，单就一个基因公司
16:04
generates more data in a month, on a compound basis,
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以复合数据为前提，一个月产生的数据量
16:07
than is in the printed collections of the Library of Congress.
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比国会图书馆收藏的纸质版数据量还大
16:11
This is what's been powering the U.S. economy. It's Moore's Law.
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这是美国经济强大的支柱，是摩尔定律
16:15
So, all of you know that the price of computers halves every 18 months
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即计算机的价格每18个月会减半
16:20
and the power doubles, right?
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同时性能加倍
16:22
Except that when you lay that side by side with the speed
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但有个例外，就是
16:26
with which gene data's being deposited in GenBank,
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基因数据库中存放基因的增加速度
16:29
Moore's Law is right here: it's the blue line.
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蓝线显示的是摩尔定律
16:34
This is on a log scale, and that's what superexponential growth means.
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这个是对数标尺，表示指数增长
16:38
This is going to push computers to have to grow faster
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这推动计算机行业的以前所未有的速度增长
16:42
than they've been growing, because so far,
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因为到目前为止
16:44
there haven't been applications that have been required
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还没有一项应用要求
16:47
that need to go faster than Moore's Law. This stuff does.
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超过摩尔定律所指的更新速度，但基因的增长例外
16:50
And here's an interesting map.
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这里有幅地图
16:52
This is a map which was finished at the Harvard Business School.
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是在哈佛商学院完成的
16:56
One of the really interesting questions is, if all this data's free,
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一个有意思的问题出现了，如果所有的数据都是免费的
16:59
who's using it? This is the greatest public library in the world.
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谁在使用？这是世界上最棒的公共图书馆
17:03
Well, it turns out that there's about 27 trillion bits
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大约27兆比特数据
17:06
moving inside from the United States to the United States;
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在美国内部流动
17:09
about 4.6 trillion is going over to those European countries;
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4.6兆比特流向欧洲国家
17:13
about 5.5's going to Japan; there's almost no communication
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大约5.5兆比特流向日本，但日本
17:16
between Japan, and nobody else is literate in this stuff.
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几乎与其他国家间没有这方面交流，而且剩下的人都不懂这个
17:20
It's free. No one's reading it. They're focusing on the war;
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资源是免费的，却没人关注，都把注意力集中到战争上
17:25
they're focusing on Bush; they're not interested in life.
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和布什上，对生命兴致缺缺
17:28
So, this is what a new map of the world looks like.
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这张是新的世界地图
17:31
That is the genomically literate world. And that is a problem.
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现在全世界都对遗传基因有所耳闻，但
17:37
In fact, it's not a genomically literate world.
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实际上不是所有人都知道遗传基因之类的
17:39
You can break this out by states.
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这是无州界的
17:41
And you can watch states rise and fall depending on
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州的兴亡取决于
17:43
their ability to speak a language of life,
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他们对于生命研究的重视程度
17:45
and you can watch New York fall off a cliff,
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你会看到纽约的坠落
17:47
and you can watch New Jersey fall off a cliff,
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新泽西的坠落
17:49
and you can watch the rise of the new empires of intelligence.
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以及一个崭新的智能帝国的崛起
17:53
And you can break it out by counties, because it's specific counties.
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你可以通过观察各个县得出结论
17:56
And if you want to get more specific,
330
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如果还需要更具体的资料来区分各个地方
17:58
it's actually specific zip codes.
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那就是邮政编码
18:00
(Laughter)
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(笑)
18:02
So, you want to know where life is happening?
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你想知道生命研究的起始点吗？
18:05
Well, in Southern California it's happening in 92121. And that's it.
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在南加州是在邮编为92121的地方开始的
18:11
And that's the triangle between Salk, Scripps, UCSD,
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位于sulk,斯克里普斯以及加州大学圣迭戈分校三角之间
18:16
and it's called Torrey Pines Road.
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叫做多利松路
18:18
That means you don't need to be a big nation to be successful;
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这说明并不一定要成为一个大国才能获得成功
18:21
it means you don't need a lot of people to be successful;
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不一定要一大群人合力才能获得成功
18:23
and it means you can move most of the wealth of a country
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你只要用3到4架精心挑选的波音747飞机
18:26
in about three or four carefully picked 747s.
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就能搬走一个国家的财富
18:30
Same thing in Massachusetts. Looks more spread out but --
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同理马萨诸塞也一样，看起来似乎很大
18:34
oh, by the way, the ones that are the same color are contiguous.
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顺道提下，同样颜色的地方是相邻的
18:38
What's the net effect of this?
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那么这个的净效应又是什么
18:40
In an agricultural society, the difference between
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在农业社会中，富人和穷人
18:42
the richest and the poorest,
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的区别在于
18:44
the most productive and the least productive, was five to one. Why?
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前者的产能是后者的5倍，为什么呢
18:48
Because in agriculture, if you had 10 kids
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因为农业社会中，如果你有10个孩子
18:50
and you grow up a little bit earlier and you work a little bit harder,
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你会比他人早起，比他人努力工作
18:53
you could produce about five times more wealth, on average,
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平均而言，你创造出的财富就是
18:55
than your neighbor.
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你邻里的五倍多
18:57
In a knowledge society, that number is now 427 to 1.
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在知识社会中，这个比例达到427：1
19:01
It really matters if you're literate, not just in reading and writing
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有文化有知识是很重要的，但不仅仅体现在能读会写
19:05
in English and French and German,
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通晓英语法语德语
19:07
but in Microsoft and Linux and Apple.
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更重要的是会操作微软、Linux以及苹果操作系统
19:10
And very soon it's going to matter if you're literate in life code.
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在不久的将来，知道有关生命密码的知识也会变得非常重要
19:14
So, if there is something you should fear,
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因此，你应该担心的是
19:16
it's that you're not keeping your eye on the ball.
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你关注的方向不对
19:19
Because it really matters who speaks life.
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把注意力转向研究生命是非常重要的
19:22
That's why nations rise and fall.
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这是国家兴盛或衰落的原因
19:25
And it turns out that if you went back to the 1870s,
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如果时光倒退到1870年间
19:28
the most productive nation on earth was Australia, per person.
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人均产能最高的国家是澳大利亚
19:31
And New Zealand was way up there. And then the U.S. came in about 1950,
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后来是新西兰，1950年左右是美国
19:34
and then Switzerland about 1973, and then the U.S. got back on top --
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1973年则是瑞士，然后美国再次崛起
19:38
beat up their chocolates and cuckoo clocks.
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击败瑞士
19:42
And today, of course, you all know that the most productive nation
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大家都知道当今产能最高的国家
19:45
on earth is Luxembourg, producing about one third more wealth
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是卢森堡，人均年产量比美国
19:48
per person per year than America.
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多1/3
19:51
Tiny landlocked state. No oil. No diamonds. No natural resources.
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而它是个小内陆国家，没有石油、钻石、天然资源
19:55
Just smart people moving bits. Different rules.
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仅仅靠聪明的国民一点点积累发展成现在的样子。这是个例
20:01
Here's differential productivity rates.
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这里显示的是不同国家的生产率差别
20:05
Here's how many people it takes to produce a single U.S. patent.
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这里显示的是获得一个美国专利需要多少人
20:08
So, about 3,000 Americans, 6,000 Koreans, 14,000 Brits,
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美国需要3000个人，韩国需要6000个人，英国需要14000个人，
20:12
790,000 Argentines. You want to know why Argentina's crashing?
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阿根廷需要790000个人，你们知道阿根廷为什么崩溃么？
20:15
It's got nothing to do with inflation.
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不是因为通货膨胀
20:17
It's got nothing to do with privatization.
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不是因为私有化
20:19
You can take a Harvard-educated Ivy League economist,
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你可以让一个受过哈佛教育的毕业自常春藤联合会的经济学家
20:23
stick him in charge of Argentina. He still crashes the country
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来掌管阿根廷，它照样会崩溃
20:26
because he doesn't understand how the rules have changed.
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因为经济学家不知道其中规则是如何改变的
20:29
Oh, yeah, and it takes about 5.6 million Indians.
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对了，发明一个美国专利，需要560万印度人
20:32
Well, watch what happens to India.
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让我们看看印度又是怎么回事
20:34
India and China used to be 40 percent of the global economy
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印度和中国队世界经济的贡献曾达到40%
20:37
just at the Industrial Revolution, and they are now about 4.8 percent.
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不过只是在工业革命期间，现在只占到4.8%
20:42
Two billion people. One third of the global population producing 5 percent of the wealth
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两国合起来有20亿人口，占世界人口的1/3，产生的财富仅占世界的5%
20:46
because they didn't get this change,
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因为他们没有顺势而变
20:49
because they kept treating their people like serfs
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因为统治者把他们的国民看做是农奴
20:51
instead of like shareholders of a common project.
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而不是具有共同利益的投资人
20:55
They didn't keep the people who were educated.
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统治者不懂得留住受过教育的人才
20:58
They didn't foment the businesses. They didn't do the IPOs.
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不刺激商业发展，不做上市
21:01
Silicon Valley did. And that's why they say
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但硅谷懂得这么做，这是为什么
21:05
that Silicon Valley has been powered by ICs.
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硅谷因为懂得网罗人才而取得不断的发展
21:08
Not integrated circuits: Indians and Chinese.
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而不是像印度或中国那样单单去发展集成电路
21:11
(Laughter)
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(笑)
21:15
Here's what's happening in the world.
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世界都发生了什么
21:17
It turns out that if you'd gone to the U.N. in 1950,
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如果你1950年去联合国
21:20
when it was founded, there were 50 countries in this world.
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即联合国成立的时间，世界上有50个国家
21:22
It turns out there's now about 192.
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而现在有192个国家
21:25
Country after country is splitting, seceding, succeeding, failing --
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这些国家一个接着一个分裂，分离，兴盛，衰落
21:30
and it's all getting very fragmented. And this has not stopped.
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变得支离破碎，但同样的故事仍然在上演
21:35
In the 1990s, these are sovereign states
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这些主权国家
21:38
that did not exist before 1990.
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在1990年之前并不存在
21:40
And this doesn't include fusions or name changes or changes in flags.
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这并不包括国家之间的融合，或者是国家改名，或者是国旗的更改
21:45
We're generating about 3.12 states per year.
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每年有3.12个国家产生
21:48
People are taking control of their own states,
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人民掌管着各自的国家
21:51
sometimes for the better and sometimes for the worse.
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有时候朝着更好的方向发展，有时候则陷入糟糕的境地
21:54
And the really interesting thing is,
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非常有意思的一点
21:56
you and your kids are empowered to build great empires,
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你和你的子孙有能力建立大帝国
21:58
and you don't need a lot to do it.
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不需要多费劲就能搞定
22:00
(Music)
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(音乐)
22:02
And, given that the music is over, I was going to talk
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音乐播完了，现在我要谈谈
22:05
about how you can use this to generate a lot of wealth,
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如何通过研究生命赚钱
22:08
and how code works.
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以及遗传密码是如何运作的
22:10
Moderator: Two minutes.
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(计时人：超时两分钟)
22:11
(Laughter)
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(笑)
22:13
Juan Enriquez: No, I'm going to stop there and we'll do it next year
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现在我不说了，明年再继续
22:17
because I don't want to take any of Laurie's time.
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因为我不想占用劳比的时间
22:20
But thank you very much.
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谢谢大家
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Juan Enriquez - FuturistJuan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society.
Why you should listen
A broad thinker who studies the intersections of these fields, Enriquez has a talent for bridging disciplines to build a coherent look ahead. He is the managing director of Excel Venture Management, a life sciences VC firm. He recently published (with Steve Gullans) Evolving Ourselves: How Unnatural Selection and Nonrandom Mutation Are Shaping Life on Earth. The book describes a world where humans increasingly shape their environment, themselves and other species.
Enriquez is a member of the board of Synthetic Genomics, which recently introduced the smallest synthetic living cell. Called “JCVI-syn 3.0,” it has 473 genes (about half the previous smallest cell). The organism would die if one of the genes is removed. In other words, this is the minimum genetic instruction set for a living organism.
Juan Enriquez | Speaker | TED.com