TED@UPS
Augie Picado: The real reason manufacturing jobs are disappearing
奧吉皮卡多: 製造業工作消失的真正原因
Filmed:
Readability: 4.4
1,763,045 views
最近我們聽過很多漂亮的話說，像美國這樣的國家，因為中國、墨西哥、越南等低成本市場，而逐漸失去寶貴的製造業工作機會──他們說保護主義是讓大家繼續向前走的最好方式。但那些工作消失的原因並非你所想的那樣，邊境和物流專家奧吉皮卡多如是說。他帶我們回歸現實，看看全球貿易真正的樣貌、以及共享生產和開放邊境能如何協助我們，用較低的成本來製造更高品質的產品。
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
When someone mentions Cuba,
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當有人提到古巴，
00:14
what do you think about?
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你會想到什麼？
00:17
Classic, classic cars?
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經典，經典的車子？
00:19
Perhaps good cigars?
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或是高檔雪茄？
00:21
Maybe you think
of a famous baseball player.
of a famous baseball player.
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也許你想到的是知名的棒球員。
00:23
What about when somebody
mentions North Korea?
mentions North Korea?
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那如果有人提到北韓呢？
00:26
You think about those missile tests,
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你會想到的是那些飛彈測試，
00:28
maybe their notorious leader
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也許是那位惡名昭彰的領導者，
00:30
or his good friend, Dennis Rodman.
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或是他的好朋友，丹尼斯羅德曼。
00:32
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
00:34
One thing that likely doesn't come to mind
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有一樣東西通常不會被想到，
00:36
is a vision of a country,
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就是一個國家的遠景，
00:38
an open economy,
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一個開放的經濟體，
00:40
whose citizens have access to a wide range
of affordable consumer products.
of affordable consumer products.
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如何讓他的人民取得各種
他們可付擔得起的消費產品。
他們可付擔得起的消費產品。
00:47
I'm not here to argue how these countries
got to where they are today.
got to where they are today.
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我並不是來這裡爭論這些國家
是如何走到今天這一步的。
是如何走到今天這一步的。
00:51
I simply want to use them
as an example of countries and citizens
as an example of countries and citizens
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我只是想要用它們當作例子，
來說明國家及人民
會因為限制進口政策
會因為限制進口政策
00:55
who have been affected,
negatively affected,
negatively affected,
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00:58
by a trade policy that restricts imports
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以及保護本土產業主義
而造成負面影響。
01:01
and protects local industries.
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01:04
Recently we've heard a number of countries
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最近，我們聽到有不少國家
01:07
talk about restricting imports
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在談論要限制進口，
01:09
and protecting their local,
domestic industries.
domestic industries.
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藉以保護它們的本土產業。
01:12
Now, this may sound fine in a sound bite,
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乍聽之下，這想法聽起來沒問題，
01:15
but what it really is is protectionism.
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但它其實只是一種保護主義。
01:19
We heard a lot about this
during the 2016 presidential election.
during the 2016 presidential election.
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在 2016 年的總統大選時，
我們常聽到這個議題。
我們常聽到這個議題。
01:23
We heard about it
during the Brexit debates
during the Brexit debates
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在英國脫歐的辯論中
我們也常聽到它，
我們也常聽到它，
01:26
and most recently
during the French elections.
during the French elections.
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最近，在法國選舉中也會聽到。
01:30
In fact, it's been
a really important topic
a really important topic
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事實上，它一直是個全世界
01:33
being talked about around the world,
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都在談論的重要主題，
01:35
and many aspiring political leaders
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且許多有抱負的政治領袖
01:38
are running on platforms
positioning protectionism as a good thing.
positioning protectionism as a good thing.
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不斷地在演說中說明
保護主義是件好事。
保護主義是件好事。
01:42
Now, I could see why they think
protectionism is good,
protectionism is good,
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我可以了解為何他們認為
保護主義是好的，
保護主義是好的，
01:45
because sometimes
it seems like trade is unfair.
it seems like trade is unfair.
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因為，有時候，貿易看起來
似乎是不公平的。
似乎是不公平的。
01:51
Some have blamed trade
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有些人會怪罪貿易，
01:53
for some of the problems
we've been having here at home in the US.
we've been having here at home in the US.
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我們在自家美國所發生的
一些問題都是貿易的錯。
一些問題都是貿易的錯。
01:56
For years we've been hearing
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多年來，我們都不斷聽到
01:57
about the loss of high-paying
US manufacturing jobs.
US manufacturing jobs.
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高薪的美國製造業工作在減少。
02:01
Many think that manufacturing
is declining in the US
is declining in the US
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許多人認為，在美國，
製造業在走下坡，
製造業在走下坡，
02:05
because companies are moving
their operations offshore
their operations offshore
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是因為公司把它們的
營運移到海外去，
營運移到海外去，
02:08
to markets with lower-cost labor
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移到低成本勞工的市場，
02:10
like China, Mexico and Vietnam.
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比如中國、墨西哥、越南。
02:14
They also think trade agreements
sometimes are unfair,
sometimes are unfair,
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他們也認為，貿易協定
有時候是不公平的，
有時候是不公平的，
02:18
like NAFTA
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如北美自由貿易協定、
02:20
and the Trans-Pacific Partnership,
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以及跨太平洋夥伴關係，
02:21
because these trade agreements
allow companies
allow companies
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因為這些貿易協定讓公司
02:25
to reimport those cheaply
produced goods back into the US
produced goods back into the US
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可以將那些便宜製造的商品
重新進口回來美國，
重新進口回來美國，
02:29
and other countries
from where the jobs were taken.
from where the jobs were taken.
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以及其它工作機會被搶走的國家。
02:32
So it kind of feels like the exporters win
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所以這種感覺有點像是，出口者贏，
02:36
and the importers lose.
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進口者輸。
02:38
Now, the reality is
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現實則是，
02:40
output in the manufacturing
sector in the US
sector in the US
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在美國，製造業的出口
02:44
is actually growing,
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其實在成長，
02:45
but we are losing jobs.
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但我們的工作在減少。
02:47
We're losing lots of them.
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我們的工作減少很多。
02:49
In fact, from 2000 to 2010,
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事實上，從 2000 年到 2010 年，
02:52
5.7 million manufacturing jobs were lost.
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就減少了 570 萬個製造業工作。
02:56
But they're not being lost
for the reasons you might think.
for the reasons you might think.
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但這些工作之所以減少的原因
和你想的不同。
03:01
Mike Johnson in Toledo, Ohio
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俄亥俄州托利多市的麥克強生，
03:04
didn't lose his jobs at the factory
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他丟掉工作的原因並不是輸給
03:06
to Miguel Sanchez in Monterrey, Mexico.
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墨西哥蒙特雷市的米戈山切斯。
03:08
No.
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不是。
03:09
Mike lost his job to a machine.
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麥克丟掉工作的原因，
是因為一台機器。
是因為一台機器。
03:13
87 percent of lost manufacturing jobs
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87% 的製造業工作機會消失，
03:16
have been eliminated
because we've made improvements
because we've made improvements
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是因為我們用自動化
03:19
in our own productivity
through automation.
through automation.
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改善了我們自己的生產力而造成的。
03:23
So that means that one out of 10
lost manufacturing jobs
lost manufacturing jobs
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那意味著，每十個
被縮減掉的製造業工作中，
被縮減掉的製造業工作中，
03:28
was due to offshoring.
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只有一個是因為外移造成的。
03:31
Now, this is not just a US phenomenon.
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這不只是在美國才有的現象。
03:34
No.
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不是。
03:35
In fact, automation is spreading
to every production line
to every production line
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事實上，自動化遍及了
全世界每一個國家的每一條生產線。
03:38
in every country around the world.
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03:41
But look, I get it:
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但，我懂：
03:43
if you just lost your job
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如果你剛丟了你的工作，
03:44
and then you read in the newspaper
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接著你在報紙上讀到
03:46
that your old company
just struck up a deal with China,
just struck up a deal with China,
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你原本的公司剛剛和中國簽了協議，
03:49
it's easy to think you were just replaced
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很容易就會聯想到，
你是被一個換一個的
協議所取代掉的。
協議所取代掉的。
03:51
in a one-for-one deal.
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03:54
When I hear stories like this,
I think that what people picture
I think that what people picture
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當我聽到像這樣的故事，
我認為人們所想像的是，
我認為人們所想像的是，
03:57
is that trade happens
between only two countries.
between only two countries.
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貿易只發生在兩個國家之間。
04:01
Manufacturers in one country
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製造商在一個國家
04:03
produce products and they export them
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生產產品然後出口銷售給
04:05
to consumers in other countries,
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另一個國家的消費者，
04:09
and it feels like
the manufacturing countries win
the manufacturing countries win
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感覺就像是製造國贏，
04:12
and the importing countries lose.
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而進口國輸。
04:15
Well, reality's a little bit different.
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嗯，現實有點不同。
04:19
I'm a supply chain professional,
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我是供應鏈專家，
04:21
and I live and work in Mexico.
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我住在墨西哥，也在那裡工作。
04:24
And I work in the middle
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而我在一個
04:25
of a highly connected network
of manufacturers
of manufacturers
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高度連結的製造商網路中工作，
04:29
all collaborating from around the world
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這些世界各地的製造商彼此合作，
04:31
to produce many
of the products we use today.
of the products we use today.
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來生產出許多現今我們使用的產品。
04:34
What I see
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我在墨西哥市
04:35
from my front-row seat in Mexico City
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最接近最清楚的位置所看到的，
04:38
actually looks more like this.
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其實比較像是這樣。
04:41
And this is a more accurate depiction
of what trade really looks like.
of what trade really looks like.
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這個對貿易的描繪，算是
較精確也較接近真實情況。
較精確也較接近真實情況。
04:46
I've had the pleasure of being able to see
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我有榮幸能夠看到
04:48
how many different products
are manufactured,
are manufactured,
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許多不同的產品是如何製造出來的，
04:51
from golf clubs to laptop computers
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從高爾夫球桿到筆記型電腦，
04:54
to internet servers, automobiles
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到網際網路服務、汽車、
04:56
and even airplanes.
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甚至飛機。
04:58
And believe me, none of it
happens in a straight line.
happens in a straight line.
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相信我，這些發生過程
都不是直線的。
都不是直線的。
05:02
Let me give you an example.
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讓我舉個例子。
05:05
A few months ago, I was touring
the manufacturing plant
the manufacturing plant
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幾個月前，我去墨西哥
05:09
of a multinational aerospace company
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巡視一間跨國航太公司
05:12
in Querétaro, Mexico,
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位在克雷塔羅的製造工廠，
05:14
and the VP of logistics points out
a completed tail assembly.
a completed tail assembly.
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物流管理副總比了一個
組裝完成的尾翼。
組裝完成的尾翼。
05:19
It turns out the tail assemblies
are assembled from panels
are assembled from panels
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結果，那尾翼是用
法國製造的鑲板來組裝的，
05:23
that are manufactured in France,
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05:26
and they're assembled in Mexico
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而組裝是在墨西哥進行，
05:28
using components imported from the US.
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使用的元件從美國進口。
05:32
When those tail assemblies are done,
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尾翼的組裝完成後，
05:34
they're exported via truck to Canada
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會被卡車載到加拿大，
05:36
to their primary assembly plant
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到它們的主要組裝工廠，
05:38
where they come together
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在那間工廠裡，
05:40
with thousands of other parts,
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它們和其它數千個零件
會被組裝起來，
會被組裝起來，
05:42
like the wings and the seats
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比如機翼和座椅，
05:44
and the little shades
over the little windows,
over the little windows,
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和小窗戶上面的小遮光板，
05:47
all coming in to become
a part of a new airplane.
a part of a new airplane.
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全都組合起來，
成為新飛機的一部份。
成為新飛機的一部份。
05:51
Think about it.
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想想看。
05:53
These new airplanes,
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這些新飛機，
05:54
before they even take their first flight,
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在第一次飛行之前，
05:57
they have more stamps in their passports
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它們護照上的戳章數目就已經勝過
05:59
than Angelina Jolie.
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安潔莉娜裘莉了。
06:02
Now, this approach to processing
goes on all around the world
goes on all around the world
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全世界都在用這個方式運轉，
06:06
to manufacture many of the products
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來製造出我們每天
06:08
we use every day,
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使用的日常用品，
06:11
from skin cream to airplanes.
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從護膚乳液到飛機。
06:14
When you go home tonight,
take a look in your house.
take a look in your house.
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你晚上回家時，看看你的房子，
06:17
You might be surprised to find
a label that looks like this one:
a label that looks like this one:
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你可能會很驚訝地發現
像這樣子的標籤：
像這樣子的標籤：
06:22
"Manufactured in the USA
from US and foreign parts."
from US and foreign parts."
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「美國製造；零件：美國及外國。」
06:27
Economist Michael Porter
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經濟學家麥可波特
06:29
described what's going on here best.
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對這個情況的描述是最貼切的。
06:31
Many decades ago, he said
that it's most beneficial for a country
that it's most beneficial for a country
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數十年前，他說，
對一個國家來說，最有益的做法是
06:36
to focus on producing the products
it can produce most efficiently
it can produce most efficiently
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著重生產該國最有生產效能的產品，
06:41
and trading for the rest.
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其餘的則用貿易取得。
06:44
So what he's talking about here
is shared production,
is shared production,
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所以，他在談的就是共享生產，
06:47
and efficiency is the name of the game.
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而這個遊戲的名字就叫做效率。
06:50
You've probably seen an example of this
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你可能在家或在工作時有看過
06:53
at home or at work.
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相關的例子。
06:55
Let's take a look at an example.
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我們先來看個例子。
06:57
Think about how your house was built
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想想看你的房子是怎麼建造的、
07:00
or your kitchen renovated.
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或廚房是怎麼翻修的。
07:02
Typically, there's a general contractor
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通常，會有一個總包商，
07:05
who is responsible
for coordinating the efforts
for coordinating the efforts
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它的責任是協調所有各個
07:07
of all the different contractors:
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包商之間的工作：
07:08
an architect to draw the plans,
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一名建築師來畫設計圖、
07:11
an earth-moving company
to dig the foundation,
to dig the foundation,
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一家運土公司來挖地基、
07:14
a plumber, a carpenter and so on.
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一個水電工、一個木匠，等等。
07:17
So why doesn't the general contractor
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為什麼總包商不要
07:18
pick just one company
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只選一家公司，
07:21
to do all the work,
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比如選建築師，
07:22
like, say, the architect?
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來做所有工作？
07:24
Because this is silly.
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因為這樣很蠢。
07:26
The general contractor selects experts
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總包商會選專家，
07:29
because it takes years
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因為需要花上數年時間，
07:30
to learn and master
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才能學會和精通
07:32
how to do each of the tasks it takes
to build a house or renovate a kitchen,
to build a house or renovate a kitchen,
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建造一間房子或翻修一間廚房
所需要的工作任務，
所需要的工作任務，
07:36
some of them requiring special training.
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有些工作任務還需要特別訓練。
07:40
Think about it:
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想想看：
07:41
Would you want your architect
to install your toilet?
to install your toilet?
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你會想要你的建築師
來安裝你的馬桶嗎？
來安裝你的馬桶嗎？
07:45
Of course not.
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當然不想。
07:46
So let's apply this process
to the corporate world.
to the corporate world.
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所以，我們把這個過程
應用到企業的世界。
應用到企業的世界。
07:50
Companies today focus on manufacturing
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現今的公司會著重在製造
07:52
what they produce best
and most efficiently,
and most efficiently,
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它們最擅長、且能
最有效率生產的東西，
最有效率生產的東西，
07:56
and they trade for everything else.
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其他的東西就靠貿易來取得。
07:58
So this means they rely
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這意味著，它們仰賴
08:01
on a global, interconnected,
interdependent network of manufacturers
interdependent network of manufacturers
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一個互相連結、互存共生的
全球製造商網路
全球製造商網路
08:06
to produce these products.
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來生產這些產品。
08:07
In fact, that network is so interconnected
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事實上，那個網路的相互連結性
08:09
it's almost impossible
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緊密到幾乎不可能
08:12
to dismantle and produce
products in just one country.
products in just one country.
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把它拆開，然後只在
一個國家生產產品。
一個國家生產產品。
08:16
Let's take a look
at the interconnected web
at the interconnected web
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我們來看看剛才的
08:18
we saw a few moments ago,
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相互連結網路圖，
08:20
and let's focus on just one strand
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我們把焦點放在美國和墨西哥
08:22
between the US and Mexico.
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之間的這個部份就好。
08:26
The Wilson Institute says
that shared production represents
that shared production represents
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威爾遜機構說，共享生產就佔了
08:29
40 percent of the half a trillion dollars
in trade between the US and Mexico.
in trade between the US and Mexico.
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美國和墨西哥間共
五千億美元之貿易的 40%。
五千億美元之貿易的 40%。
08:35
That's about 200 billion dollars,
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那就是大約兩千億美元，
08:37
or the same as the GDP for Portugal.
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等同於葡萄牙的國內生產總值。
08:41
So let's just imagine
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我們來想像一下，
08:44
that the US decides to impose
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如果美國決定要針對所有來自
08:47
a 20 percent border tax
on all imports from Mexico.
on all imports from Mexico.
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墨西哥的進口，
施加 20% 的邊境稅。
施加 20% 的邊境稅。
08:51
OK, fine.
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好，沒問題。
08:53
But do you think Mexico is just
going to stand by and let that happen?
going to stand by and let that happen?
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但，你認為墨西哥會
袖手旁觀讓它發生嗎？
袖手旁觀讓它發生嗎？
08:58
No. No way.
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不會，不可能。
08:59
So in retaliation,
they impose a similar tax
they impose a similar tax
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為了報復，他們會針對從美國
09:02
on all goods being imported from the US,
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進口的所有商品課徵類似的稅，
09:06
and a little game of tit-for-tat ensues,
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接著就是一報還一報的小遊戲，
09:10
and 20 percent -- just imagine
that 20 percent duties
that 20 percent duties
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20% ──想像一下，20% 的關稅
09:13
are added to every good,
product, product component
product, product component
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被加到從邊境進進出出的
09:17
crossing back and forth across the border,
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每一樣商品、產品、產品元件上，
09:19
and you could be looking at more
than a 40 percent increase in duties,
than a 40 percent increase in duties,
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可能會因此增加超過 40% 的關稅，
09:23
or 80 billion dollars.
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即八百億美元。
09:25
Now, don't kid yourself,
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不要自欺欺人了，
09:27
these costs are going to be passed along
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這些成本都會轉嫁到
09:29
to you and to me.
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你我身上。
09:33
Now, let's think about what impact
that might have on some of the products,
that might have on some of the products,
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現在，再來想想我們
每天購買的那些產品、
每天購買的那些產品、
09:39
or the prices of the products,
that we buy every day.
that we buy every day.
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或其價格，會受到什麼影響。
09:42
So if a 30 percent increase in duties
were actually passed along,
were actually passed along,
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如果實際上轉嫁 30% 的增加關稅 ，
09:47
we would be looking at some
pretty important increases in prices.
pretty important increases in prices.
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我們將會看到價格被調升許多。
09:51
A Lincoln MKZ would go
from 37,000 dollars to 48,000.
from 37,000 dollars to 48,000.
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林肯汽車 MKZ 車款的價格
會從 $37,000 提升到 $48,000。
會從 $37,000 提升到 $48,000。
09:56
And the price of a Sharp 60-inch HDTV
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夏普的高畫質電視價格
10:00
would go from 898 dollars
to 1,167 dollars.
to 1,167 dollars.
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會從 $898 提升到 $1,167。
10:06
And the price of a 16-ounce jar
of CVS skin moisturizer
of CVS skin moisturizer
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而 16 盎司的 CVS 藥局
罐裝護膚液價格
罐裝護膚液價格
10:10
would go from 13 dollars to 17 dollars.
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會從 $13 提升到 $17。
10:14
Now, remember, this is only looking
at one strand of the production chain
at one strand of the production chain
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別忘了，這只是美國和墨西哥
之間的一條生產鏈而已，
之間的一條生產鏈而已，
10:19
between the US and Mexico,
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10:21
so multiply this out
across all of the strands.
across all of the strands.
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如果把其它部份都乘進來，
10:24
The impact could be considerable.
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影響會非常巨大。
10:26
Now, just think about this:
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想想這一點：
10:28
even if we were able
to dismantle this network
to dismantle this network
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即使我們有辦法拆解這個網路，
10:33
and produce products in just one country,
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只在一個國家中生產產品，
10:36
which by the way is easier said than done,
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我只能說，說的比做的容易，
10:39
we would still only
be saving or protecting
be saving or protecting
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我們還是只能拯救或是保護
10:42
one out of 10 lost manufacturing jobs.
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十個被縮減的製造業工作中的一個。
10:45
That's right, because remember,
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沒錯，別忘了，
10:49
most of those jobs, 87 percent,
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因為大部份這些工作，有 87%，
10:52
were lost due to improvements
in our own productivity.
in our own productivity.
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是因為我們自己生產力的
改善而消失掉的。
改善而消失掉的。
10:55
And unfortunately,
those jobs, they're gone for good.
those jobs, they're gone for good.
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不幸的是，那些工作
永遠不會再回來了。
永遠不會再回來了。
11:00
So the real question is,
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所以，真正的問題是，
11:02
does it make sense for us
to drive up prices
to drive up prices
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這麼做合理嗎？
把日用品價格提高到
把日用品價格提高到
11:04
to the point where many of us can't afford
the basic goods we use every day
the basic goods we use every day
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許多人都無法負擔的程度，
11:11
for the purpose of saving a job
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只是為了拯救一些工作，
11:13
that might be eliminated
in a couple of years anyway?
in a couple of years anyway?
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且這些工作在幾年後
終究還是會消失？
終究還是會消失？
11:18
The reality is that shared production
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現實是，共享生產
11:20
allows us to manufacture
higher quality products
higher quality products
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讓我們能用較低的成本來製造出
11:23
at lower costs.
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更高品質的產品。
11:25
It's that simple.
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就這麼簡單。
11:26
It allows us to get more
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它讓我們能從有限的資源和專長中，
11:28
out of the limited resources
and expertise we have
and expertise we have
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盡可能得到更多，
11:31
and at the same time
benefit from lower prices.
benefit from lower prices.
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同時我們還享有價格較低的好處。
11:35
It's really important to remember
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很重要的是要記住，
11:37
that for shared production
to be effective,
to be effective,
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若要讓共享生產能有效地發揮作用，
11:40
it relies on efficient cross-border
movement of raw materials,
movement of raw materials,
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就需要讓原料、元件、成品都能
有效率地通過邊境。
11:45
components and finished products.
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11:48
So remember this:
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所以，切記這一點：
11:51
the next time you're hearing somebody
try to sell you on the idea
try to sell you on the idea
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下次，你聽到有人要說服你說
11:55
that protectionism is a good deal,
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保護主義是個很好的辦法時，
11:58
it's just not.
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你要知道並非如此。
12:00
Thank you.
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謝謝。
12:01
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Augie Picado - Border specialistAugie Picado is the country manager for UPS Mexico.
Why you should listen
By leading strategy and operations for UPS across Mexico, Augie Picado has developed a nuanced familiarity with the day to day of cross-border trade. Prior to this position, Picado led various aspects of UPS's marketing strategy. Recent positions include vice president of marketing for the Americas region and the senior director of marketing development in Atlanta. He began his career with the company in 1985 as a loader in New Jersey.
Picado earned his BA from Montclair State University and his MBA from Fairleigh Dickinson University, both in New Jersey. He also earned a masters certificate in project management from George Washington University in Washington, D.C.
Augie Picado | Speaker | TED.com